ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOK

JULY2025

HIGHLIGHTS

nDevelopingAsia’sgrowthforecastshavebeendowngradedfromprojectionsin

Aprilto4.7%in2025and4.6%in2026.Growthintheregionacceleratedin

thefirstquarterof2025thanksto

soliddomesticdemandandpre-tarifffront-loadingofexports,buthighertariffsandglobaltradeuncertainty

areexpectedtodampenmomentumgoingforward.

nRisingtradeuncertaintyalsoweighs

onSoutheastAsia’sgrowthoutlook,

promptingthelargestdownward

revisionsamongsubregionsto4.2%for

2025and4.3%for2026.

nThegrowthforecastforEastAsiain

2025isreviseddown,to4.3%,andto

5.9%inSouthAsia,amidweakertradeprospectsduetotheUStariffhikes,

whilethe2026growthforecastsremain4.0%and6.2%,respectively.

nGrowthforthePacificisstillforecastat3.9%for2025butreviseddownto3.5%for2026,reflectingexpectedsofteninginvisitorarrivals.

nThegrowthforecastfortheCaucasusandCentralAsiaisraisedto5.5%for2025and5.1%for2026,from5.4%

and5.0%,reflectingstrongeractivityinKazakhstan,supportedbyrobustoilproduction.

nDisinflationindevelopingAsiais

expectedtocontinue,withheadline

inflationforecasttoeaseto2.0%in

2025and2.1%in2026,amidstrongeragriculturaloutputandloweroilprices.

nHigherUStariffsandtradeuncertaintyarethemainrisksfortheregion’s

outlook.RenewedgeopoliticaltensionsandafasterdeteriorationinthePRC’spropertymarketcouldalsoweaken

regionalgrowth.

SLOWERGROWTHAMID

TARIFFSANDUNCERTAINTY

DevelopingAsia’soutlookhasworsenedsincetheApril2025Asian

DevelopmentOutlook(ADO),astradeandotherrisksloomlarge.Gross

domesticproduct(GDP)growthintheregionacceleratedinthefirstquarter(Q1)

of2025,underpinnedbyresilientconsumptionandfront-loadingofexportsas

firmsanticipatedtariffhikesinQ2intheUnitedStates(US).Disinflationcontinued,asfoodandoilpricesdeclined.DespitethesepositivedevelopmentsinQ1,

developingAsia’sgrowthprojectionsforboth2025and2026havebeendowngradedcomparedwithforecastsintheApril2025ADOduetoexpectationsofamore

challengingexternalenvironmentandweakerdomesticdemand.Downsideriskshavealsointensified.Foremostamongtheseishigher-than-expectedUStariffsandtradeuncertainty,whichcouldworsentheregion’sgrowthprospects.

Are-escalationofconflictintheMiddleEastcoulddisruptshippingandraiseoil

prices,curbinggrowth,andboostinginflation.Inaddition,aprotractedproperty

downturninthePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)couldhamperthegrowthoutlookindevelopingAsia’slargesteconomy,withadversespilloverstotherestoftheregion.

TherecentdevelopmentssectionwaswrittenbyShielaCamingue-Romanceundertheguidance

ofAbdulAbiad,JohnBeirne,andMatteoLanzafameoftheEconomicResearchandDevelopment

ImpactDepartment(ERDI).TheAsianDevelopmentBankRegionalEconomicOutlookTaskForce

ledthepreparationoftherevisedsubregionaloutlook.ThetaskforceischairedbyERDIandincludesrepresentativesoftheCentralandWestAsiaDepartment,EastAsiaDepartment,PacificDepartment,SouthAsiaDepartment,andSoutheastAsiaDepartment.ADBplacedonholditsregularassistance

toAfghanistaneffective15August2021.Effective1February2021,ADBplacedatemporaryholdonsovereignprojectdisbursementsandnewcontractsinMyanmar.

2ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKJULY2025

RecentDevelopments

GrowthinmajoradvancedeconomiesdivergedinQ12025

amidmountingtradetensionsandtariff-relateddisruptions.

TheUSeconomycontractedataseasonallyadjustedannualizedrate(saar)of0.5%,astradeuncertaintydampenedconsumer

sentiment.Manufacturingandservicesindexesweakenedamidpolicyuncertainty,whileindustrialoutputstalledandjobgainsslowed.Japan’seconomyalsocontractedby0.2%saarinQ1.

Risinghousing,healthcare,andricepricesandthewaningimpactofenergysubsidiesconstrainedconsumption,whileastronger

yenandtariffuncertaintyhamperedexports,particularlyinthe

automobilesector.Quarterlygrowthflatlined,indicatingalossofmomentumevenbeforeUSreciprocaltariffswereannouncedon2April.Incontrast,theeuroareagrewby2.5%saarinQ12025,thefastestsinceQ22022.Theaccelerationwasdrivenby

strongdomesticdemandinFrance,Italy,andSpain,exportsinGermany,andone-offfactorsrelatedtoexportfront-loadinginIreland.Manufacturingstrengthened,whilearesilientlabormarketandstablewagegrowthsupportedconsumerspending.

Oilpricesremainedaround$65perbarrelfromMayuntilthe

MiddleEastconflictescalatedon13June,triggeringasurgeto$78perbarrelby19June.Theceasefireannouncedon24Juneresultedinoilpricesdecliningto$66perbarrelon25June.

DevelopingAsia’sgrowthpickedupearlythisyear,fueled

bysurgingexportsandresilientconsumption.Growth

acceleratedinthePRCandIndiainQ12025,comparedtothe

secondhalfof2024,whiletheperformancewasmixedinthe

restoftheregion(Figure1A).Tariff-relatedfront-loadingshapedmuchofthemomentumandalsocontributedtocontinued

growthintechexports—particularlysemiconductorsand

AI-relatedequipment.InthePRC,GDPexpanded5.4%inQ1

and5.3%overallinthefirsthalfof2025,supportedbypolicy

stimulusforconsumptionandindustrialactivityowingtoasurgeinexportsasfirmsrushedshipmentsinanticipationofsteepUStariffhikes.Year-on-yearexportgrowthrosetoa6-monthhighat12.3%inMarchbeforemoderatingto6.2%inQ2.India’sGDPgrew7.4%,boostedbyhighernetexportsandasharprisein

investmentspurredbysurgingpublicspending.Incontrast,totalconsumptioneasedevenasruraldemandremainedfirm.Front-loadingandglobaldemandforelectronicssupportedactivityinsomehigh-incometechnologyexporters,buttoalesserextentintheRepublicofKoreaamidfallingpricesandadeclineinchipexportstothePRCfollowingtighterUSrestrictionsonhigh-

bandwidthmemorysales.IntheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)economies,risingexportswerepartlyoffsetbyweakerdomesticdemand,dentedbylowerinvestmentin

Figure1ContributionstoGDPGrowthinDevelopingAsia,H22024andQ12025

A.DemandSide

GrowthindevelopingAsiaacceleratedinQ12025,drivenlargelybyexportsandconsumption.

TotalconsumptionTotalinvestment

Netexports

StatisticaldiscrepancyGDPgrowth,%

Percentagepoints,yoy

12

8

7.4

6.0

●

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.2

4.95.4

5.0

5.5

4.0

●

4.4

5.04.95.2

3.9

●

3.1

3.1

3.1

●

3.83.6

4

1.2

0—2.2

0.0

●

0

–4

Q1

2025

H2Q120242025

Philippines

H2Q120242025

Indonesia

H2Q120242025

Taipei,China

H2Q120242025

HongKong,China

H2Q120242025

India

H2Q120242025

DevelopingAsia

H2Q120242025

Malaysia

H2Q1

20242025

DevelopingAsia(excl.

PRCandIndia)

H2

2024

H2Q120242025

PRC

Thailand

–8

H2

2024

Q1

2025

H2

2024

Q1

2025

Republicof

Korea

Singapore

ASEAN-4

High-incometechnologyexporters

continuedonnextpage

ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKJULY20253

Figure1Continued

B.SupplySide

Industryperformancewasmixed,whileservicesgrowthremainedlargelyrobust.

AgricultureIndustry

Services

StatisticaldiscrepancyGDPgrowth,%

Percentagepoints,yoy

10

5

0

–5

7.4

6.0

5.45.55.04.95.25.25.4 4.4

3.13.1

4.95.45.05.4

3.83.6

4.0

3.9

●

3.1

2.2

1.2

0.0

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

H2Q1

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

Developing

PRC

India

Developing

HongKong,

Republicof

Singapore

Taipei,China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Asia

Asia(excl.

China

Korea

PRCandIndia)

High-incometechnologyexporters

ASEAN-4

ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations,PRC=People’sRepublicofChina,GDP=grossdomesticproduct,H=half,Q=quarter,yoy=year-on-year.

Notes:EconomiesincludedarethosewithavailablequarterlyGDPdataanddemand-sidebreakdowns,accountingforabout90%ofdevelopingAsia.Alldataareforcalendaryears.H22024GDPgrowthisthepercentagegrowthrateofGDPinthelast2quartersof2024overthesameperiodin2023.

Sources:HaverAnalytics;CEICDataCompany.

Indonesia,Malaysia,andThailand.Onthesupplyside,servicesremainedlargelyrobust,butindustrialperformancewasmixed

acrosstheregion.IndustrialoutputgrewmorerapidlyinthePRC,India,andTaipei,China,butmoderatedelsewhere,reflectinga

worseningofexpectationsamongmanufacturers(Figure1B).

LeadingindicatorssuggestgrowthslowedinQ2andwill

weakenfurther.ManufacturingPurchasingManagers’Indexes(PMIs)indicatethatactivityworsenedinJunefor5ofthe10

regionaleconomieswithavailabledata.TheindexonlypickedupinIndia,Thailand,thePhilippines,andthePRC(Table1).

ThisstillrepresentsamarginalupgradewithrespecttoAprilandMay,whenthePMIsfor7economieswerebelowthethresholdof50separatingimprovingfromworseningconditions.WeakerQ2manufacturingactivitymirrorsslowerexportmomentum

intheregion,asreflectedinworseningexportordersinthe

PRC,ASEANeconomies,andthehigh-incometechnology

exporters(HongKong,China;RepublicofKorea;Singapore;andTaipei,China).Thissuggeststhatbothdomesticandexternal

demandmayconstraingrowth.Meanwhile,PMIsindicatethat,inJune,activityinservicescontinuedtogrowstronglyinIndia,whilesofteninginthePRC.

Disinflationcontinuedacrosstheregionasglobalfood

priceseasedandtherecentvolatilityinoilpricesprovedtobetransitory(Figure2).Headlineinflationmoderatedto

1.1%inMay,lessthanhalfthepre-pandemicaverageof2.6%.

ThefallwaslargelydrivenbythePRC,whereinflationturned

todeflationfromFebruarytoMay2025,reflectingsubdued

domesticdemand,oversupplyofpork,andintensifiedprice

competitionamongproducersandretailers.ExcludingthePRC,headlineinflationalsoremainedbelowthepre-pandemicaverageanddecreasedgradually.DisinflationwasstrongerinSouthAsiaandSoutheastAsia,whereasinflationroseintheCaucasusand

CentralAsia,dueinparttoincreasesinutilitypricesaimedat

attractinginvestmenttomodernizeinfrastructureinKazakhstan.DespiteaslightincreasebetweenMarchandMay,averagefoodinflationintheregionstayedbelowlastyear’sandpre-pandemiclevels.Ricepricesdropped20.5%fromthestartoftheyearto

24June,andotheragriculturalpricepressuresremainedsubdued.BrentcrudeoilpricesswungsharplyfromearlyApriltomid-June2025,ontherenewedconflictintheMiddleEast.However,the

impactonoilpriceswasshort-lived,suchthatenergypriceshaveremainedbroadlystableacrosstheregionsinceApril.Onthe

otherhand,coreinflationtickedupslightlyinrecentmonths,drivenbyincreasesinservicepricesinthePRC.ExcludingthePRC,coreinflationhasplateauedsincemid-2024,reflectingbroad-basedpricemoderationforbothgoodsandservices.

4ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKJULY2025

Table1PurchasingManagers’Index,SelectedAsianEconomies

Leadingindicatorssuggestmanufacturingactivityisslowing.

Economy

2024

2025

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

JulAugSep

OctNovDec

JanFebMar

AprMayJun

ManufacturingPMI,seasonallyadjusted

India

Thailand

PhilippinesPRC

Singapore,nsaMalaysia

VietNam

RepublicofKoreaTaipei,China

Indonesia

58.1

52.8

51.2

49.8

50.7

49.7

54.7

51.4

52.9

49.3

57.5

52.0

51.2

50.4

50.9

49.7

52.4

51.9

51.5

48.9

56.5

50.4

53.7

49.3

51.0

49.5

47.3

48.3

50.8

49.2

57.5

50.0

52.9

50.3

50.8

49.5

51.2

48.3

50.2

49.2

56.5

50.2

53.8

51.5

51.0

49.2

50.8

50.6

51.5

49.6

56.4

51.4

54.3

50.5

51.1

48.6

49.8

49.0

52.7

51.2

57.7

49.6

52.3

50.1

50.9

48.7

48.9

50.3

51.1

51.9

56.3

50.6

51.0

50.8

50.7

49.7

49.2

49.9

51.5

53.6

58.1

49.9

49.4

51.2

50.6

48.8

50.5

49.1

49.8

52.4

58.2

49.5

53.0

50.4

49.6

48.6

45.6

47.5

47.8

46.7

57.6

51.2

50.1

48.3

49.7

48.8

49.8

47.7

48.6

47.4

58.4

51.7

50.7

50.4

50.0

49.3

48.9

48.7

47.2

46.9

ServicesPMI,seasonallyadjusted

India

60.3

60.9

57.7

58.5

58.4

59.3

56.5

59.0

58.5

58.7

58.8

60.4

PRC

52.1

51.6

50.3

52.0

51.5

52.2

51.0

51.4

51.9

50.7

51.1

50.6

Philippines,nsa

48.5

49.0

51.3

52.5

52.4

54.5

51.3

50.9

52.4

55.6

50.9

…

SriLanka,nsa

71.1

65.2

53.4

60.3

60.5

71.1

58.5

56.5

69.8

60.6

57.0

…

…=datanotavailable,PRC=People’sRepublicofChina,nsa=nonseasonallyadjusted,Q=quarter.Notes:Pinktoredindicatesdeterioration(<50)andwhitetogreenindicatesimprovement(>50).

Source:CEICDataCompany.

Figure2ContributionstoInflation,DevelopingAsia

InflationistrendingdownwardacrossdevelopingAsia.

Energy–related

Food

Core

Headlinein?ation

Percentagepoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

1.1

2.6

0

–1

JulJanJulJanJulJanMay

202320242025

AvgJan2015–20222019

Avg=average.

Notes:Coreinflationexcludesfoodandenergysectors.Forsomeeconomies,

coreisestimatedastheresidualbetweenoverallinflationandthesumoffoodandnon-alcoholicbeveragesandenergy-relateditems.Forlackofamoredisaggregatedbreakdown,energy-relatedconsumerpricesformosteconomiesincludeshousing,water,andnon-fueltransport.TheregionalaverageiscalculatedusingGDP

PurchasingPowerParitysharesasweights,for23economies.

Source:AsianDevelopmentBankcalculationsusingdatafromHaverAnalytics;CEICDataCompany;nationalsources.

Monetarypolicyeasingwillcontinuebut,reflectingincreasinguncertaintyabouttheeffectsoftradeandothershocks,its

paceisexpectedtoshift.AvailableforecastsinJuneforselectedregionaleconomiesindicatethat16centralbanksareprojected

tocutpolicyratesfurtherthisyear.Outofthese16,9areforecasttoloosenmonetarypolicybymorethanprojectedinMarch,by

anaverageof23basispoints(Figure3).Forsomeeconomies,

expectationshaveeventurnedfrompolicyratehikesinMarchtocutsinJune.However,lessmonetaryeasingisnowprojectedfor

theother7economies.Thisvariedpicturereflectschangingtrade-offsandrisksrelatedtogrowthandinflationacrosstheregion,witheconomy-specificfactors—suchascurrentandexpectedinflationrates,financialconditions,andexchangeratestability—shaping

monetarypolicydecisionsinthefaceofcommonexternalshocks.

Financialmarketsremainedresilientdespitemarket

uncertaintyandincreasedvolatilityinApril.InvestorconcernsoverUStariffsescalatedinMarch,withtheUSadministration’sannouncementofnewtariffson2Aprilfurtherdamping

sentimentandamplifyingmarketuncertainty.Thistriggeredasharpdeclineinequitymarketsandaspikeinfinancialvolatility(Figure4).Marketsentimentbegantorecoverfollowingthe

announcementofa90-daypauseonthe2Apriltariffsand

thestartoftradenegotiationsbetweentheUSandkeytradingpartners.Additionally,theMiddleEastconflictof13–24Juneexertedonlylimitedimpactonregionalfinancialmarkets.Asa

ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKJULY20255

Figure3ProjectedPolicyRateChangesbyEnd-2025

Monetarypolicylooseningisprojectedtocontinue,buttheexpectedpacehasshiftedcomparedtoMarch.

二June2025projectionMarch2025projection

Pakistan

HongKong,ChinaKazakhstan

Lessmonetaryeasingexpected

Armenia

Uzbekistan

GeorgiaPRC

Indonesia

PhilippinesROK

Moremonetaryeasingexpected

SriLanka

Thailand

VietNam

MalaysiaIndia

Taipei,China

–2.0–1.5–1.0–0.50.00.5

Expectedpolicyratechange:Expectedend-2025rate–currentrate

PRC=People’sRepublicofChina,ROK=RepublicofKorea.

Note:Theprojectedpolicyratesaresimpleaveragesofend-2025forecastsfromsurveyedbanksandinvestmentbanks,independenteconomicresearchfirmsandconsultancies,andfinancialinstitutions.

Source:FocusEconomics;HaverAnalytics.

result,equitymarketsrebounded,riskpremiumsnarrowed,andnetportfolioinflowsresumed(Figure5).Concernsaboutthe

potentialadverseeffectsoftariffsontheUSeconomyandglobaltradeweighedheavilyontheUSdollar,raisingquestionsaboutitsstatusasasafe-havenasset(Box1).From1Aprilto9July,the

USdollardepreciated5.0%againstabasketofmajorcurrenciesrepresentingkeyUStradingpartnersandby1.4%againsta

weightedaverageofregionalcurrencies.

Thegrowthoutlookinmajoradvancedeconomiesis

dimming.TheGDPgrowthforecastfortheUShasbeenreviseddownwardto1.7%in2025,from2.0%inADOApril2025,

reflectingstrainsfromhighertariffsonimportsandpolicy

uncertaintyoninvestment(Box2).Growthisexpectedtoedgeupto1.9%in2026,astheenactmentoftheOneBigBeautifulBillActapprovedon4JulyisexpectedtoliftGDPintheshortrun(Box3).Japan’sgrowthoutlookhasalsoweakened,with

growthprojectedtoslowto0.8%in2025andto0.6%in2026.

UStariffsonkeygoods—suchasautomobiles,steel,and

ships—areexpectedtoreduceUS-boundexportsandweaken

manufacturingactivity.Incontrast,theeuroareagrowth

projectionfor2025remainsunchangedat1.2%,reflectingrecentsignsofmomentum,andtheassumptionthatUStariffson

importsfromtheeuroareawillstayatthecurrentmanageablelevels.Growthisprojectedtoaccelerateto1.3%in2026,alsothankstothelaggedeffectsofmonetarypolicyeasingandtheexpectedfiscalexpansioninGermany.

Figure4EquityMarketPerformanceandCBOEVIX

Theregion’smarket-weightedequityindexreboundedfollowingthe

announcementofa90-daypauseintariffsamideasingmarketvolatility.

DevelopingAsiaEquity,marketweighted

UnitedStatesCBOEVIX

Index,1January2025=100

110

105

100

95

90

85

Index

60

48

36

24

12

800

JanFebMarAprMayJunJul

2025

CBOEVIX=ChicagoBoardOptionsExchangeVolatilityIndex.

Note:DevelopingAsiacomprisesBangladesh;People’sRepublicofChina;

HongKong,China;India;Indonesia;Kazakhstan;RepublicofKorea;Malaysia;

Pakistan;Philippines;Singapore;SriLanka;Taipei,China;Thailand;andVietNam.

TheS&P500indexisusedforUnitedStates.

Source:Bloomberg.

6ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKJULY2025

Figure5PortfolioFlowsintheRegion

NetportfolioflowshaveturnedpositivesinceMayonimprovedinvestorsentimentandcontinuedUSdollarweakness.

DevelopingAsiaexcludingPRC

People’sRepublicofChina

DevelopingAsiaNominalEMEUSDollar

Netportfolio?owsin$billion,lag30–dayMAIndex,1Jan2006=100

1.0142

0.5139

0.0136

–0.5133

–1.0130

–1.5127

JanFebMarAprMayJun

2025

PRC=People’sRepublicofChina,EME=emergingmarketeconomies,MA=movingaverage,US=UnitedStates.

Notes:ThenominalemergingUSdollarIndexincludesthecurrenciesof19emergingmarketeconomiesforwhichbilateraltradewiththeUnitedStatesaccountsforatleast0.5%oftotalUSbilateraltrade.ThelowervalueoftheUSDindexindicatesdepreciation.

Sources:InstituteofInternationalFinanceandFederalReserveBankofSt.Louis.

/series/DTWEXBGS

,14July2025.

ThisreportrevisesdevelopingAsia’sgrowthforecasts

downwardcomparedtoADOApril2025,to4.7%in2025andto4.6%in2026.HigherUStariffsandglobaltradeuncertainty

willdampenexportsfromtheregion,whileweakerdomestic

demandwillalsoweighongrowth.ExcludingthePRC,the

region’s2025growthforecasthasbeenlowered0.2percentage

points,reflectingdownwardrevisionsofforecastsinSouthAsia

andSoutheastAsiafromADOApril2025(Table2).Southeast

Asiafacesthelargestdownwardrevisionsamongsubregions,

withprojectedgrowthadjustedto4.2%for2025and4.3%for

2026.Inapartialdeviationfromthepattern,growthprojectionsfortheCaucasusandCentralAsiahavebeenraised,largely

reflectingananticipatedboostinoilproductionfromthelaunchofKazakhstan’sFutureGrowthExpansionproject.Theinflation

forecastfortheregionhasbeenreviseddownto2.0%in2025onlowerinflationprojectionsinthePRCandSouthAsiaoutweighingasteepupgradeintheCaucasusandCentralAsia.Ongoing

moderationinoilandriceprices,alongwithreduceddemand-

sidepricepressuresduetoslowergrowth,areanticipatedto

supportcontinuingdisinflation.Theinflationforecastfor2026isalsoreviseddownto2.1%.

Riskstotheoutlookstilltilttothedownside.UncertaintyrelatedtoUStariffscontinuestoweighonglobaltradeandeconomicactivity.The90-daytruce,originallysettoend

on8July,hasbeenofficiallyextendedto1August,whiletheseparateUS-PRCtruceissettoexpireon10August.

NegotiationsbetweentheUSandseveralofitstradingpartnersareongoing.However,on7July,theUSsenttarifflettersto

14economies,warningthatifnotradedealsarefinalizedby

1August,newtariffratehikeswilltakeeffectonthatdate.ArenewedimpositionoftheUSreciprocaltariffsora

re-escalationinUS–PRCtradetensionscouldreduceregional

growthby0.5to1.4percentagepoints(Box4).Otherpolicy

changesintheUScouldaffecttheregionaloutlook.Althoughitsoverallimpactontheregionwillbeminimal,the1%US

remittancetaxcouldslightlydampenprivateconsumption

in2026ineconomiesheavilyreliantonUSremittances,

especiallysomePacificIslandeconomies(Box5).Geopoliticaltensionsoutsidetheregionpersist,aspeacetalksoverRussia’swarinUkrainestalledandthe24Juneceasefireinthelatest

MiddleEastconflictremainsfragile.Renewedescalationcoulddisruptshippingandsupplychainsandincreasecommodity

pricevolatility.Inparticular,thepotentialclosureoftheStrait

ofHormuzbyIranwouldaffectabout20%oftheworld’soil

transitandaround25%to30%ofgloballiquefiednaturalgas

exports(Box6).AfurtherdeteriorationinthePRC’songoing

propertyslumpcouldalsoweighongrowthprospects.Despitebriefsignsofstabilizationinearly2025,realpropertypricesandinvestmentcontinuedtodeclineinrecentmonths.

ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKJULY20257

Table2GDPGrowthRateandInflation,%

DevelopingAsia’sgrowthisexpectedtoeasein2025and2026.

GDPGrowth

Inflation

Subregion/Economy

2024

2025

AprilJuly

2026

April

July

2024

2025

AprilJuly

2026

AprilJuly

DevelopingAsia

5.1

4.9

4.7

4.7

4.6

2.6

2.3

2.0

2.2

2.1

DevelopingAsiaexcludingthePRC

5.1

5.0

4.8

5.1

4.9

4.8

4.0

3.6

3.7

3.7

CaucasusandCentralAsia

5.7

5.4

5.5

5.0

5.1

6.8

6.9

7.8

5.9

6.7

Kazakhstan

4.8

4.9

5.1

4.1

4.3

8.7

8.2

10.2

6.5

8.4

EastAsia

4.7

4.4

4.3

4.0

4.0

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.9

0.6

People’sRepublicofChina

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.3

4.3

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.7

0.4

HongKong,China

2.5

2.3

2.0

2.5

2.1

1.7

1.9

1.6

2.0

1.6

RepublicofKorea

2.0

1.5

0.8

1.9

1.6

2.3

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

Taipei,China

4.8

3.3

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.5

SouthAsia

5.9

6.0

5.9

6.2

6.2

6.5

4.9

4.4

4.5

4.5

India

6.5

6.7

6.5

6.8

6.7

4.6

4.3

3.8

4.0

4.0

SoutheastAsia

4.8

4.7

4.2

4.7

4.3

3.0

3.0

2.6

2.8

2.7

Indonesia

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.1

2.3

2.0

1.5

2.0

2.0

Malaysia

5.1

4.9

4.3

4.8

4.2

1.8

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

Philippines

5.6

6.0

5.6

6.1

5.8

3.2

3.0

2.2

3.0

3.0

Singapore

4.4

2.6

1.6

2.4

1.5

2.4

2.0

1.0

1.7

1.2

Thailand

2.5

2.8

1.8

2.9

1.6

0.4

1.0

0.5

1.1

0.8

VietNam

7.1

6.6

6.3

6.5

6.0

3.6

4.0

3.9

4.2