StateofAI

KentBennett

PARTNER

MikeDroesch

PARTNER

MahaMalik

INVESTOR

TaliaGoldberg

PARTNER

LauriMoore

PARTNER

BhavikNagda

INVESTOR

JanelleTeng

PARTNER

CatyRea

INVESTOR

LanceCoTingKeh

VENTUREPARTNER

SameerDholakia

PARTNER

LindseyLi

INVESTOR

DarshPatel

INVESTOR

Thenew$100MARRgrowth

curveforAIstartups

SUPERNOVAS

Year1-$40MARR

Year2-$125MARR

SHOOTINGSTARS

Year1-$3MARR

Year2-$12MARR

Year3-$40MARR

Year4-$103MARR

CLOUDCENTAUR

Onaverage,thetop

privatecloudcompaniesreach$100MARRin

<7years.

AVERAGERATESOFGROWTH

$ARRinMillions

$100M

$90M

$80M

$70M

$60M

$50M

$40M

$30M

$20M

$10M

$0M

7

4

years$100M

years$100M

1.5years

to

to

to$100M

CLOUDCENTAUR

AISHOOTINGSTAR

AISUPERNOVA

$103MARRon

averagein4years

$125MARRonaveragebyyear2

$40MARRon

averagein3years

$40MARRonaveragein1

year

Yearsto$100M

123456789

Source:Bessemerresearchfromportfoliodata

AIBENCHMARKS

AIbenchmarks:Supernovasvs.ShootingStars

WhatgreatAIstartupslooklikein2025

SUPERNOVAS

Year1

$40MARR

Year2

$125MARR

Grossmargins

~25%*

ARR/FTE

$1.133M

SHOOTINGSTARS

Year1

$3MARR

Year2

$12MARR

Year3

$40MARR

Year4

$103MARR

Grossmargins

60%

ARR/FTE

$164K

*ForAISupernovas,grossmarginsareoftennegative

Predictions

PREDICTION1

ThebrowserwillemergeasadominantinterfaceforagenticAI

AsagenticAImatures,thebrowserisemergingasthedominantinterface—notjustfornavigation,butforend-to-endautonomousexecution.

Unlikevoice,browsersofferacontextual,ambientsurfaceembeddedindailyworkflows.ToolslikeCometandDia

previewafuturewhereAIrunsnativelyattheoperatinglayer—automatingtasks,reasoningacrosstabs,and

executinghigh-leveluserintent.

WeexpectnewAI-nativebrowsersfromOpenAI,Google,andotherstopushthisfrontier.Thenextbrowserwarsarealreadyunderway.

PREDICTION2

2026willbetheyearofgenerativevideo

2024wasthebreakoutyearforgenerativeimages,2025forvoice—and2026isshapinguptobevideo’smoment.

Advancesinmodelquality(Veo3,Sora,Kling,Marey)and

fallingcostsarecollapsingvideo’scomplexitybarrier,drivingmainstreamadoption.

Wealsoexpectthenext12monthstoclarifythemarket

structureforgenerativevideo:Dolargelabswinitall?Willopen-sourcecatchup?Arethereadvantagestoreal-time

andlowlatencyusecases?

beyond.

Fromcinematicstorytellingtocustomerengagement,generativevideoispoisedtoreshapeentertainment,

marketing,education,and

PREDICTION3

EvalsanddatalineagewillbecomeacriticalcatalystforAIproductdevelopment

Mostcompaniesstillcan’tassessmodelperformanceintheir

real-worldcontexts.Publicbenchmarksfallshort—missing

nuancearoundworkflows,compliance,andbusiness-criticaluse.

Enterprisesdon’tjustwantperformance—theywantconfidence.

Thatrequiresreproducibleevaluationtailoredtotheirowndataandriskprofile.Asmodelperformanceconverges,therealedgeisknowingwhen,where,andwhyyourmodelworks.

That’swhyin2025and2026evalswillgoprivate,grounded,andtrustworthy—andenterpriseAIdeploymentwillaccelerate.

enterpriseAI

nextwave

power

.

Startupsthatmakeevalsexplainable,scalable,andproduction-readywilltheofadoption

PREDICTION4

AnewAI-nativesocial

mediagiantcouldemerge

Majorshiftsinconsumertechnologyhavehistoricallypavedthewayfornewsocialgiants.PHPenabledFacebook.MobilecamerasmadeInstagrampossible.AdvancesinmobilevideopropelledTikTok.

It’shardtoimaginethatthenewcapabilitiesenabledbygenerativeAIwon’tleadtoasimilarbreakout.

Whatevershapeittakes,advancementsinvoiceinteraction,

long-termmemory,andimageandvideogenerationareclearfuelforthenextsocialmediabreakout.Thewinningplatformmightlaunchwithamainstreamsplashoremergefromaniche

communityecosystem.

intoa

-

beforerapidlyexpandingfullfledged

PREDICTION5

TheincumbentsstrikebackasAIM&Aheatsup

AftertwoyearsofrapiddisruptionbyAI-nativestartups,the

enterprisegiantsarestrikingback—notbyrebuildingfrom

scratch,butbyacquiringthecapabilitiestheyneedtocatchup.

In2025and2026,weexpecttoseeasurgeinM&AactivityasincumbentsmoveaggressivelytobuytheirwayintotheAIera.

Foundertakeaways:

?Expectstrategicinterest.Ifyou'rebuildingdomain-specificorinfra-layerAI,legacyplayersmaycomeknocking.

?Bedefensible.Strongmoats,traction,andembeddedworkflows=leverage.

?Knowwhereincumbentslag—fillthegapfaster,andyou're

invaluable.

Whatfounders

needtoknow

Toptakeawaysforfounders

TwoAIstartuparchetypesarewinning:Onaverage,Supernovashit~$100MARRin1.5years—butoftenwithfragileretentionandthinmargins;ShootingStarsgrowlikestellarSaaS:$3Mto$100Mover4years,withstrongPMFandhealthymargins.

Memoryandcontextarethenewmoats:Themostdefensibleproductswillremember,adapt,andpersonalize.Persistentmemoryandsemanticunderstandingcreateemotionalandfunctionallock-in.

Systemsofactionarereplacingsystemsofrecord:AI-nativeappsdon’tjuststoredata—theyactonit.Don’tboltAIontolegacysoftware—reimaginetheentireworkflow.

StartwithanAIwedge:Solveanarrow,high-frictionproblem(e.g.,legalresearch,salesnotes).Deliver10xvaluefast—thenexpand.

Thebrowserisyourcanvas:AgenticAIisshiftingtothebrowserlayer—nowaprogrammableenvironmentwhereagentsobserveandexecute.Buildforthissurface;it’sthenewoperatinglayer.

Toptakeawaysforfounders

Private,continuousevaluationismission-critical:Publicbenchmarks

aren’tenough.Enterprisesdemandtrusted,explainableperformance.Buildinevalinfrastructurefrom

Speedofimplementationisastrategicadvantage:Onboardi