LagosMarketUpdateprovideshalfyearupdateontherealestatemarketperformanceofthecommercialnervecentreandeconomichub/researchImageculledfromlevithegraImageculledfromlevithegrapher2.每日分享：6+份行研精選、3個(gè)行業(yè)主題3.報(bào)告查找：群里直接咨詢，免費(fèi)協(xié)助查找4.嚴(yán)禁廣告：僅限行業(yè)報(bào)告交流，禁止一切無關(guān)信息LAGOSMARKETUPDATE|1STHALF2025H12025FXParallelMarket180016001,53814001,310120010008006004002000FebMarAprMayJunJanFebMarAprMayJun20242025Source:CBN,KnightFrankResearch1,6231,6051,6601,5851,5521,4951,5961,4751,5861,5411,4781,4941,5211,4991,4191,2371,5331,2411,5671,5981,554Jan899360034003200300028002600240022002000180016001400120010008006004002000.00360034003200300028002600240022002000180016001400120010008006004002000.00SepOctNovJulFebMarAprAugMayJunJanMarAprMayQtr1Qtr2Qtr3Qtr4Qtr1Qtr220242025DecJanFebSource:KnightFrankInflationfellto22.97%,heavilyassistedbystatisticalCPIrebasing.Nigeria’seconomyfeltlikeacarfinallyshiftingintogear.Followingoverduereformsandaggressive2024tightening(MPRup750bps)tostabilizethenairaandcontrolinflation.H12025offeredglimmersofprogress.Thenaira'sappreciationtoN1,539.24/$byendofJune2025itsstabilizationwithintheN1,400–1,600/$bandweretangiblesignsthesereformsweregainingtraction.Thisstrengthening,drivenbytherolloutoftheElectronicForeignExchangeMatchingSysandupdatedFXtransactioncodes,significantlyreducedtheneedfordrasticcentralbankintervention.Yet,justasthisdomesticfootingseemedtostrengthen,externalshocksthreatenedtostallthehard-wontractionHeadlineinflationfiguresshowaremarkabledrop,from34.8%inDecember2024to22.97%byMay2025,however,acloserlookrevealsthisisn'tpurelyaresultofcoolingpricepressures.ThedeclinewasheavilyassistedbyastatisticalCPIrebasing.TheCBNheldratesat27.5%,sustainingmonetarypressurewhilefinallypushingrealinterestratesintopositiveterritory.Ontheflipside,theexercisedelayedthereleaseofofficialGDPdata,thoughStanbicestimatesthattheeconomygrewbydevelopments,amidstthepersistentLAGOSMARKETUPDATE|1STHALF2025threatofexternalheadwinds,underscoredtheboldeconomicreforms,intendedtoresetthenation’seconomictrajectory.Despitethepolicywins,thedelicatedomesticrecoveryisnowbeingtestedbysignificantexternalpressures.GlobaloilmarketsexperiencedsignificantvolatilityinH12025.PricesfaceddownwardpressureinMay,withBrentdippingtoward$65perbarrelonconcernsaboutglobaloversupplyandsofteningdemand,threateningNigeria’srevenuetargets.ThistrendshiftedinJunefollowingtheescalationofconflictbetweenIranandIsrael.HeightenedfearsofsupplydisruptionsthroughcriticalchokepointsliketheStraitofHormuztriggeredasharppricerally.Brentcrudesurged,BonnyLightliftedto$79perbarrel,a20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010substantialincreasefromMaylows.20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010Yetevenaspricesrallied,outputconstraintscontinuedtodefinetheoilmbpd,fallingshortofthe2.06mbpdbudgetprojection.Atthesametime,theglobalenvironmentisbecominghardertopredict.Anewworldorderistakingshape,withboththepoliticalandeconomiclandscapeshiftinginwaysthatarestillunfolding.Theseunprecedentedchangehavemademarketsmoreuncertain,asinvestorstrytomakesenseofrisingtensions,policychanges,andunexpectedshocks.Asaresult,manyhaveresortedtoreducingriskbymovingmoneyintosaferassets,aflighttosafetythathasdrivenstronginterestingold.ThemetalsawasolidrallyinH12025,asworriesoverinflatiandcurrencyweaknesspushed20202022202320242025JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep20202022202320242025JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2024JanFebMarAprMayJun2025Source:KnightFrank100.0090.0080.0070.0060.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.0085.5288.4083.4082.9476.2368.4765.4273.4480.1876.4573.9075.0074.25uncertaintyandsafe-havendemandpresentsatoughbalance.Whilehigheroilpricesoffersomesupport,thebroaderglobalpressureaddsstraintorecoveryeffortsandcouldcomplicatethepathahead300025002000150010005000Source:NUPRCMonetaryPolicyRateAllItemsInflationFoodInflation450Source:CBN,KnightFrankResearch4040.014040.0140.5340.6640.8739.5339.1639.9339.8437.9237.5237.7737.9237.5237.773535.4133.233.6933.9534.1933.432.1532.733.8834.634.83029.931.73029.931.727.527.527.527.52524.7524.7534.834.634.634.634.622.75一一26.2526.2526.7526.7527.2527.25202018.7555Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24SepJan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25April-25May-25LAGOSMARKETUPDATE|1STHALF2025Torapidlyboosthousingsupply,LagosStateisdeployingPPPsacrossagovernancespectrum,fromenablingprivatedeveloperstoco-deliveringtargetedprojects.Thismulti-scalarapproachspansnewtowns(e.g.Ikoyi-Ibejucorridor),neighborhoods,andestate-levelinterventionslikeMegamound’s378-unitcomplexandLBIC’s64-unitmaisonettes,blendingdirectpartnershipwithecosystemcultivation.Additionally,theLagosStateGovernmentrecentlylaunchedtheconstructionofanotherPPP-basedhousingschemeintheIbeju-LekkiCorridor.Despitetheseefforts,thehousinggapremainssignificant,increasingtheneedforalternativesolutionsfortenants.Soaringrentaldemandsfromlandlordshaveledtoasurgeinrentdefaults,pushingtenantstoseekmoreaffordablehousingoptions.ThistrendhasresultedinanoticeablemigrationtowardssuburbananddevelopingareaslikeIkoroduandIbeju-Lekki,whererentalratesareconsiderablylowerthaninurbancentres.Thisshiftunderscoresastrategicadjustmentintenantpriorities,withaffordabilitynowoutweighingthetraditionallocationaladvantagesofurbanliving.Short-letsandstudioapartmentsareincreasinglytransformingtheLagospropertymarket.Thegrowingdemandfortheseoptionscanbeattributedtoseveralfactors.Theriseofhybridandremoteworkmodelshasenabledyoungindividualstooptformoreaffordablehousingsolutions,leveragingthesetypesofpropertiestomanagehousingcosts.Furthermore,theinfluxofbothlocalandinternationaltouristsintothecountryhassignificantlycontributedtotheincreaseddemandforshort-letapartments.Thesecombinedfactorshaveelevatedtheprominenceofshort-termrentalswithintheLagosresidentialmarket.RentalPriceRentalRentalPriceRentalPrice3-beds4-beds88664420IlupejuOgbaSurulereYabaSource:KnightFrank8653-beds4-beds2520207650GbagadaIkejaMagodoOguduSource:KnightFrank967RentalPriceRentalRentalPriceRentalPrice3-beds4-beds8664420AgungiAjahIkateOsapaLondonSource:KnightFrank573-beds4-beds6060505040303020200BananaIslandIkoyiLekkiPhase1VictorSource:KnightFrank353525LAGOSMARKETUPDATE|1STHALF2025Amidstadifficulteconomicclimateandreducedpurchasingpower,Lagos’retailrealestatemarketisfindingstabilityandtargetedgrowthbyreshapingitselfaroundevolvingconsumerpreferences.Shoppersareincreasinglyprioritizingconvenienceandproximity,fuelingdemandforsmaller,hyper-localshoppingdestinationsratherthanlargeregionalmalls.Theshifthasopenedacrucialopportunity.Agilelocalplayersarenowthrivinginthisspace,outpacinginternationalbrandsinmeetinghyper-localneedsForexample,Bokku!Mart,launchedinSeptember2022,grewtoover70brancheswithinitsfirst18monthsandnowoperatescloseto150outletsacrossLagos,alongsidepeerslikeAddideandPrimemartwhosesmall-formatstoresthrivewherelargerchainshaveretrenched.Theofficemarketisshowingresilienceafterafewchallengingyears.OccupancyratesinGradeApropertieshaveclimbedfrom65%to73%,showingasignificantincreaseintheabsorptionofthesepremiumofficespaces.However,despitethisriseinoccupancy,averagerentalratesforGradeAofficespacesinIkoyidroppedby3.5%year-on-year,decreasingfrom$57to$55perDoDollarRents8068687060504030303020020204649454439504030200604416,39016,3907,0008,00020,0003,0001,6803,3402025202620252027202620252028202920252027VictoriaIslandVictoriaIslandUleshIkoyiDangoteIndustriesHQBUAOfficeDevelopmentRCOCourtTowerHarbourPointTowersThePantheonOasisPlazaRoseworthIoDHouseTheRubiconLAGOSMARKETUPDATE|1STHALF2025establishmentoftheUnitedStatesEmbassy'sestablishmentoftheUnitedStatesEmbassy'sdiplomaticfacilityinthecity.Thesedevelopmentsaresettotransformthecorporatelandscapeoftheprimeofficemarket.Ontheotherhand,acontinuingtrendinthebroaderofficemarketiswitnessinglandlordsadoptinginnovativestrategiestoaddresstheoversupplyandsustaineddemandforofficespaces.Thisincludesrepurposingvacantofficebuildingsintoresidential,retail,orhospitalityuses.Furthermore,developersintroducingnewofficeprojectsareincreasinglyexploringmixed-usedevelopmentstyles.Theseofferexperientialspacesbyincorporatingamenitiessuchasretailshops,gyms,andbars.Thisapproachhelpsdevelopersdiversifytheirincomestreamswhilecateringtothegrowingpreferenceforintegratedwork-lifeenvironments.squaremetrepermonth.Thisclearlyindicatesatenant-ledmarket,wherelandlordsfavourhigheroccupancyoverrenthikes.Officeactivityhasalsopickedupinkeyhubs.Forexample,Eko-AtlanticCityisexperiencingasignificantsurgeincommercialactivity,drivenbyitsmoderninfrastructure.Thisincludesexcellentroadnetworks,top-notchtelecommunicationfacilities,reliableelectricityandgasinfrastructure,andasustainabledesignthatpromotesalive-work-playecosystem.Thesefeatureshaveattractedleadingbusinessestoestablishtheirofficesinthecity.Inparticular,MTNNigeriaandFirstBankarerelocatingtheirheadquartersinthecity.MTNhasalreadyacquiredalargeplotofland,whileFirstBankhasbrokengroundonitsproposed43-storeyheadquarters.ThisfollowstherecentSource:images.skyscraperciSource:Thissignifiesexpansionineconomicactivities,andincreasedbusinessconfidence.Theindustrysector’sPMIstoodat51.4inJuneThissignifiesexpansionineconomicactivities,andincreasedbusinessconfidence.Theindustrysector’sPMIstoodat51.4inJune2025,indicatingsteadyeconomicrecovery,drivenbyanincreaseinmanufacturingoutput.Thisrecoveryisapparentinthemanufacturingindustry,whereseveralIndustrialsectorshowedsustainedexpansion,andthisisevidentIndustrialsectorshowedsustainedexpansion,andthisisevidentinthePurchasingManagers’Index(PMI),whichhasbeenabove50basispointsforthesixthconsecutivemonththisyear,accordingtotheCentralBankofNigeria.year-on-yearrevenueincreasesofupto50%.ThispositivetrendcanbeattributedtodecreasinginflationandtherecentstabilityoftheforeignLAGOSMARKETUPDATE|1STHALF2025((MDAs),thepolicyisexpectedtofosterindustrialgrowth,stimulatethelocaleconomy,andmovethecountrytowardsgreaterself-reliance.PMIIndexPMIIndexbusinesscon?dence.52.253.7localindustries,reduceimportdependency,andboostdomesticproductionandpatronageofgoods.DirectedspecificallyatgovernmentMinistries,Departments,andAgenciesStanbic54.35452.75252.350.2504948JanFebMarAprMayJun2025Source:CBN,StanbicFurtherbolsteringthelocaleconomy,theFederalExecutiveCouncil(FEC)recentlyapprovedthe"NigeriaFirst"policy.Thisinitiativeaimstoprioritize5352CBN5554.252.3Thefirsthalfoftheyearwitnessedthecommissioningandrehabilitationofmajorroadprojects.Forinstance,the30-kilometersectionIoftheLagos-CalabarCoastalHighway,whichextendsfromAhmaduBelloWaytoElekoJunctioninLagosState,wascommissionedbytheFederalGovernmentonMay26,2025.Uponcompletion,the700-kilometerroadisexpectedtocontributeimmenselytothestate’seconomy,easetransportation,andcreatenumerousjobopportunitiesforNigerians.The68kmGreenLinerail,expectedtospanMarinatotheLekkiFreeTradeZoneisoneofthemajorinfrastructurestheLagosStateGovernmentisplanningtocommencein2025.Theprojectwascateredforwithinthestate’sbudgetofN1.052trillionforinfrastructuraldevelopment,anditisexpectedtobecompletedwithin5years.ThisprojectwilldecongestLagoshighways,andimprovemobility.Furthermore,theLagosStateGovernmentissettocommissiontheOpebi-MendeBridge.Theroadmeasuring4.52kmisexpectedtoservethecommutersalongtheIkeja-Ojotaaxisandeasetrafficcongestion.Othernoticeableongoinginfrastructuresnoticeableongoinginfrastructuresincludethe47.88kmEti-OsaLekki-EpeExpressway,andmajorupgradeontheLagos-BadagryAlso,theapprovalofa$652millionloanfromChinaEximBankmeantfortheconstructionofthe50km7thAxialRoad,isasignificantmilestoneachievedforthecountry’sinfrastructuredevelopmentstrategy.ThisroaddevelopmentwillserveasamajorlinkfromtheLekkiDeepSeaport,totheDangotePetroleumRefineryR