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TheNewNuclearAge:Whythe

WorldIsRethinkingAtomicPower

GoldmanSachsGlobalInstitute

GeorgeLee,Co-Head,GoldmanSachsGlobalInstituteDejanaSaric,Associate,GoldmanSachsGlobalInstituteMishaSohan,Associate,GoldmanSachsGlobalInstitute

September2025

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ExecutiveSummary

Throughouthistory,thecommercializationofnewformsofenergyhasgivenrisetofossilfuelconglomeratesandrenewableenergy

enterprises,poweredenergy-intensivetechnologies,andcreatednewglobalinvestmentopportunities.Ascountriesnowracetosecurethemassiveamountsofenergyneededforleadershipinartificialintelligence,nuclearenergyisnewlypositionedtomeetthemoment.

WhennuclearpowerinitiallyrosetoprominenceduringtheColdWar,itbecameadefiningfeatureoftheera,symbolizingbothexistentialthreatandscientifictriumph.InthedecadesaftertheSecondWorldWar,countriesracedtodevelopciviliannuclearprograms,luredby

thepromiseofenergytoocheaptometer.ButafteraccidentslikeThreeMileIsland,Chernobyl,andFukushima,themomentumbehindnuclearenergystalled.Publicoppositionsurged,regulatoryburdensgrew,andinnovationslowed.Today,nuclearenergymakesupjust9%oftheglobalelectricitymix,downfromapproximately18%inthelate1990s.

Afterdecadesofunderinvestment,aconvergenceofgenerationaltechnologicalbreakthroughs,intensifyinggeopoliticalcompetition,andtheneedforclean,dense,reliablepowerarepositioningnuclearenergyforarenaissance.

Butthenextnuclearagewilllookdifferentfromthelast.Whilenuclearenergyistypicallyassociatedwithnuclearfissiononaccountofitscommercializationdecadesago,thereareactuallytwodistinctformsofnuclearenergythatexist,fissionandfusion.Innovationsinfissionlikesmallmodularreactors(SMRs)areshapingwhattherevivaloftraditionalnuclearfissioncouldlooklike.Separately,theadventof

fusionenergyrepresentsatechnologicalbreakthroughthatcouldrevolutionizehowenergyisgenerated,withthepotentialtodisrupt

globalenergymarkets.Takentogether,theseinnovationsinfissionandfusioncouldchangenotjusthownuclearpowerisproduced,buthownationscompete,cooperate,andsecuretheirenergyfutures.

Thecommercialopportunitiesarefar-reaching:aspublicandprivatesectorinvestmentflowsintonucleartechnologycompanies,

investmentswilllikewisebeneededinthebroadernuclearsupplychain.Globally,countriesthatmasteradvancednucleartechnologieswillgainnotonlyenergysecuritybutalsolongstandingcommercialrelationships,softpower,andtheabilitytoshapeglobalnorms.

Capturingthisopportunitywillrequireincreasedinvestment,aswellasnewregulatoryframeworksandformsofgovernmentsupport.

IntheUnitedStates,PresidentTrump’spromisetoquadruplenuclearpowergenerationby2050maybethestartinggunforaracetoreassertAmericanleadershipinnuclearpower.Butindoingso,USpolicymakersandcorporateleadersmustcontendwithadomesticindustrythathasbecomelesscompetitivecomparedtothatofcountrieslikeChinaandRussia.Thispaperexaminesthecurrent

landscapeofnuclearenergy,whatcomesnext,andwhatitmeansforcountriesaroundtheworld.

AIInfrastructureBoostsNuclearEnergyDemand

BeforetheriseofAIwiththelaunchofChatGPTin2022,globalelectricitydemandwasalreadyexpectedtogrowsignificantlydueto

populationgrowth,theeconomicgrowthandurbanizationofemergingeconomies,andtheelectrificationofsectorsliketransportation.Now,AIisdrivinganevengreatersurgeindemand.Currentestimatesforecastglobalelectricitydemandtonearlydoubleby2050.

Datacenterpowerdemandisprojectedtorisebyasmuchas165%by2030,bringingglobaldatacentercapacitytoabout137GW—

roughly60%ofwhichwillneedtobemetwithnewgenerationcapacity,accordingtoGoldmanSachsResearch.Whilehyperscalersare

largelyturningtonaturalgastomeetcurrentdemandsincetheinfrastructureisalreadyinplace,theoverarchingneedtosecurefirm,

dispatchablepowerhasopenedthedoortocreativesolutions.Thedesiretokeepcarbonemissionsincheck–along-termconsiderationformanylargetechcompanieswithnetzeropledges–hasalsounderlinedtheneedtodevelopsustainablepowersources,whileavoidingtheintermittencyissuesofwindandsolar.

Takentogether,theresultisarenewedinterestinnuclearpowerfrombothpolicymakersandbusinessleaders.Afteryearsofvirtually

stagnantgrowth,globalinvestmentinnuclearpowergenerationgrewataCAGRof14%between2020-2024.Thatgrowthisonlysettoaccelerate.AtCOP28,25countriespledgedtotriplenuclearenergycapacityby2050.Sincethen,thatnumberhasgrownto31,andlargefinancialinstitutionsandmajorenergyusers(includingAmazon,Google,andMeta)havejoinedthatpledge.

Infact,hyperscalershavebeenakeydriverofrenewedinvestment,particularlyintheUnitedStates,asdemonstratedbyMicrosoft’s

835MWpower-purchaseagreement(PPA)torestarttheThreeMileIslandnuclearfissionpowerplant,andMeta’s20-yearPPAwiththeClintonfissionplantinIllinois,bothofwhichweredonewithConstellationEnergy.AmazonhasalsosignedaPPAwithTalenEnergy

Corporationforalmost2GWofnuclearelectricitytopoweritsAIandclouddatacentersinPennsylvania.Thelarge-scalenatureof

nuclearfissionplants—mostplantsare1GWorgreater—makesthemaparticularlyappealingsolutionformeetingtheenergydemandsoflarge-loadpowerconsumers,likeAIdatacenters.

THENEWNUCLEARAGE:WHYTHEWORLDISRETHINKINGATOMICPOWER

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Buthyperscalershavealsohelpedleadinvestmentinthecommercializationofnext-generationnuclearpower,namelysmallmodular

reactors(SMRs)andfusionenergy.Thesetechnologies,longbrushedoffastoo-farfromcommercialization,arenowdrawingsignificantpublicandprivatesectorsupport.

RisingPowerDemandBringsNuclearFissionBacktotheForeground

ScientistsworkingfortheManhattanProjectinthe1940sfirstharnessednuclearfission,theprocessofsplittingheavyatomicnucleito

releasemassiveamountsofenergy,duringWorldWarII.Bythe1960s,countriesbegantoinvestheavilyinnuclearpowergeneration.ThegeneralsenseofenergyinsecurityfeltthroughouttheColdWarhelpedpropelinvestment—inthedecadeafterthe1973OilEmbargo,

constructionstartedonapproximately170GWofnuclearcapacity.

NuclearReactorsUnderConstruction

Duringthisperiod,theUnitedStatesbecametheworld’sgreatestgeneratorofnuclearpower.Inthe40yearsbetween1957-1997,US

nucleargenerationcapacitygrewfromroughly55MWto100GW(anincreaseof1,817x).Otheradvancedeconomieslikewiseinvestedinbuildingupnuclearcapacityduringthisperiod.However,successivenuclearincidents,fromChernobyltoFukushima,changedattitudestowardsnuclearenergyinmanycountries,leadingtodecadesofunderinvestment.

Today,theaverageageofreactorsinadvancedeconomiesisroughly36years,andlifetimeextensionsforoldplantsnowaccountforapproximately10%oftheglobalfleet.AlthoughtheUnitedStatesstillleadstheworldintermsofinstallednuclearcapacity,thecurrentoperatinglicensesofmostUSreactorsareduetoexpireinthe2030s.

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GlobalNuclearPowerGenerationCapacity(GW)

AstheUnitedStatesandotheradvancedeconomiespulledbackfrominvestments,ChinaandRussiacametodominatenuclearpower.

Allbutfourofthenuclearreactorsthatbeganconstructionbetween2017and2024areofRussianorChinesedesign,andalmosthalf(29outof63)ofthereactorscurrentlyunderconstructionarebeingbuiltinChina.Perhapsmostimportantly,bothcountrieshave

leveragedthestrengthoftheirdomesticindustriestoexportandfinancetheconstructionofnuclearfissionreactorsabroad,cementingdecades-longcommercialtieswithrecipientcountries.

China,themaincompetitortoUSinnovationanddevelopmentinAI,isnowthemostprolificinvestorinnuclearenergyintheworld.Atitscurrentpace,ChinaisontracktoleapfrogtheUnitedStatesandbecometheworld’slargestnuclearenergygeneratorby2030,withtheultimategoalofreaching200GWofnuclearpowercapacityby2040.

Russiahasfocusedlessondomesticbuildupandmoreoninternationalinfluence.Russia’sstate-backedRosatomStateAtomicEnergy

Corporationiscurrentlybuilding19reactorsaroundtheworld,withaninternationalorderbookofmorethan$200billionandexport

revenuesof$18billionin2024(theUSorderbook,incontrast,waszero).PartofwhathasmadeRosatomsoeffectiveisthefactthatthissingularcompanycanoffercustomersservicesfortheentirelifespanofanuclearpowerplant,fromthenuclearreactortechnology,plantconstruction,fuel,operationalcapabilities,maintenance,decommissioning,andfuelcyclemanagement—nottomentiongenerousdebtandequityfinancingfromtheRussianstate.In2023,Rosatominauguratedthe$20billionAkkuyuNuclearplantinTurkey,aprojectthatwaslargelyfinancedbyRussia,builtbyRussians,andwillbeoperatedbyRosatomfordecadestocome.

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NuclearCapacityUnderConstructionandNationalOriginofTechnology

Someadvancedeconomiesmayfacegreaterchallengesinscalingupnuclearpowerinthefuture.WhilecountrieslikeFranceandSouthKoreahavebuiltupstrongnuclearsectorsthathavehelpedthembecomeleadersinnucleardevelopment,others,liketheUnitedStates,haveallowedtheirdomesticnuclearindustryandsupplychainstoerode.Thecurrentshortfallintalentpresentsakeyconstraint–

estimatesstatethatthepresentUS-basednuclearworkforcewouldneedtotripletomeet2050nuclearenergydemand.However,thetotalnumberofgraduatesinnuclearengineeringin2022fellto929,a20%dropfrompeak2015levels.

Diminishedindustryknow-how,supplychaindisruptions,andregulatoryhurdlesmanifestinlongerconstructiontimelinesandcost

overruns.IntheUnitedStates,thelasttwodomesticreactorsbuiltatGeorgia’sPlantVogtletookabout15yearstocompleteandcost

morethan$35billion(morethandoubleinitialprojectionsof$14billion).Incomparison,China’saverageconstructiontimeforlarge

reactorsisjustsevenyears,whileRussia’sisestimatedataroundeight.BuildingnuclearplantsintheUnitedStatesfasterwillrequirenotonlyeffortstostreamlineregulationsbutalsoleaningontechnologicaladvantages—asdemonstratedbytheNuclearCompany’srecent$100milliondealwithPalantirtodevelopAIsoftwareforthenuclearindustry,withtheaimofbuildingplantsfaster,cheaper,andsafer.WestinghouseElectricCompanyalsorecentlyannouncedacollaborationwithGoogleCloudAI,leveragingtheirAItoolstoacceleratetheconstructionofnewWestinghousenuclearreactorsandoptimizetheperformanceofexistingfacilities.

TheGeopoliticsoftheNuclearSupplyChain

Changinginvestmentpattenshavealsoledtoamoreconcentratednuclearfuelsupplychain,raisingtherisksofsupplychaindisruptionsevenasinterestinnuclearpowerpicksup.Thissupplychainstartswiththeminingofuranium,whichisthenmilledintouranium

concentrate(commonlyreferredtoasyellowcake),convertedintogaseousform,enrichedto3-5%tocreateLow-EnrichedUranium(LEU)fuel,andfinallyturnedintofuelpellets.

TheUnitedStateshaslargelylostthenuclearsupplychainexpertisethatoncemadeitaleaderinsettingsafetyandnonproliferationstandards.DuringtheColdWar,theUnitedStateswasamongsttheworld’sleadinguraniumproducers,extracting20to45million

poundsannually.By2023,thisfigurehadplummetedtojust50,000pounds.Thecountryhasasingularuraniumconversionfacilityremaining.AndwhiletheUnitedStatesusedtobetheworld’sgreatestproducerofenricheduranium,todayithasjust8%ofglobaluraniumenrichmentcapacity,fromaforeign-ownedplantoperatingintheUnitedStates.

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Othercountrieshavesteppedintofillthegaps.Today,Kazakhstanistheworld’sgreatestproducerofuraniumore(43%)andyellowcake(39%),mostofwhichitsellstoitsneighbors,RussiaandChina.Canada,currentlytheworld’ssecond-largesturaniumproducer—thoughitproduceslessthanhalfofKazakhstan’soutput—isrampingupdomesticproductionasitaimstoovertakeKazakhstan.Downstreamthe

supplychain,RussianandChinesestate-backedorstate-ownedenterprisescontrolroughly40%ofglobaluraniumconversioncapacityandapproximately63%ofglobaluraniumenrichmentcapacity.

Duetoitsownlackofcapacity,theUnitedStatesnowimports72%oftheenricheduraniumituses.SinceRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,acombinationofUSimportrestrictions,Russianexportrestrictions,andgrowingdemandhavepushedpricesforconvertedandenricheduraniumtorecordhighsandraisedtheprospectofasupplycrunchforwesternutilitiesinthecomingyears.Lookingtothefuture,newproductionfromCanadacouldoffertheUnitedStatesandothersastablesourceofuranium,shoringupsupplychainsecurity.

SmallModularReactorsAretheNextStepforNuclearFission

TheTrumpadministrationhasmadenuclearenergyakeyaspectofitsenergydominanceagenda.InMay2025,PresidentTrumpsignedfourexecutiveordersaimedateasingregulationstospeedupthedeploymentofnuclearenergyandstrengtheningthedomesticnuclearindustrialbase.Someoftheadministration'smostambitiousgoalscenteronnuclearfission,whichthePresidentaimstoquadruple,withconcretetargetsincludingfacilitating5GWofpowerupratestoexistingreactorsandcommencingconstructiononatleast10newlargefissionreactorsby2030.

ButtheTrumpadministrationisalsochampioningnext-generationadvancedreactors,principallySmallModularReactors(SMRs),as

foundationaltoitspursuitofbothenergysecurityandtechnologicalleadershipinAI.SMRsusethesamefissionreactionastraditional

nuclearplantsbututilizedifferentreactordesignsforasmallerfootprintandbettersafetyfeatures.WithonlythreeoperationalSMRsintheworld(inRussia,China,andJapan),SMRsarestillseveralyearsawayfromcommercializingatscale.However,investorinteresthas

beengrowing,drivenbytheconvictionthatnuclearenergywillbecrucialtopoweringambitionsinAI.

SMRDevelopmentintheUnitedStates

SomeoftheTrumpadministration’spolicysupportisspecificallygearedatfosteringfastercommercializationofSMRs.Inadditiontotheincentivesthatapplytotraditionalnuclearfission,theadministrationhasorderedthedeploymentofanSMRataDepartmentofEnergyfacilitybyNovember2027andatamilitarybasebySeptember2028.Inhavingthegovernmenttakeontheregulatoryandtechnicalrisksassociatedwithearlydeployments,theadministrationcanhelpprovidereal-worldvalidationofthetechnologythatfacilitatesfurther

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investments.Jumpstartingdeploymentcanalsohelpcreatedemandforpartsofthenuclearfuelsupplychainthathavebeenunderinvestedin.

TheadvantagesofSMRsarerevealedintheirnomenclature.SMRsaresignificantlysmallerthannuclearfissionplants,withthelargest

SMRsaround300MW.Theyarealsomodular:unlikegiantfissionreactors,SMRcomponentscanbemassproducedinfactoriesandthenassembledonsite.Intheory,thisshouldmakeSMRscheaperandfastertobuildthantraditionalfissionplants,translatingtolessriskandeasierfinancing.Theirsmallersizealsomeanssitingismoreflexible,whichcouldmakethemeasiertodeployforbehind-the-meteroroff-gridloads,includingpotentiallyAIdatacenters.MostSMRsarealsoadvancedreactors,meaningtheyuseinnovativetechnologiesto

replacethelight-watercoolingusedintraditionalfissionreactors.Finally,many(butnotall)SMRdesignsuseadifferenttypeofnuclear

fuelcalledHigh-AssayLow-EnrichedUranium(HALEU).HALEUfuelusesuraniumthatisenrichedbetween5-20%,higherthantheLEU

thatfissionreactorsuse.Higherenrichmenttranslatestohigherefficiency,meaningplantscanrunforsignificantlylongerbeforerefuelingisneeded.

Aswithmostnewtechnologies,commercializationisnotwithoutitschallenges.GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesthatthelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)forSMRsislikelytobecheaperthanthatforgas-poweredorcoalgenerationoncethetechnologyhitsasteadystate,

butestimatingconstructioncostsfornascenttechnologyisinherentlydifficult.BothRussiaandChina’soperationalSMRsexperiencedcostoverrunsof300-400%overinitialestimates,andthisislikelytobetypicaluntileconomiesofscaledevelop.

ThesupplychainforHALEUisanotherthreattothecommercializationofSMRsintheUnitedStates.Today,Rosatom’ssubsidiaryTenexistheonlycommercialproducerofHALEUintheworld.UncertaintyovertheavailabilityofHALEUhasheldbacksomecompaniesfrom

committingtotheirreactordesigns,whichinturnimpedesinvestmentindomesticHALEUproduction.USattemptstorampupdomesticsuppliesbeganin2019,whentheDepartmentofEnergyawardedCentrusEnergyCorporationacontracttobeginenrichingHALEUwithgovernment-ownedassets.Today,alldomesticHALEUproductioniscontrolledbytheDepartmentofEnergy,whichcanthenawardpartofitsstockpilestoadvancednuclearcompanies.Fosteringafulsomedomesticindustrywilleventuallyrequireinvestmentsinspecializedfacilitiesforcommercialproduction,giventhehigherrisksassociatedwithhigherenrichment.

TheNextWave:FusionCouldRevolutionizeNuclearEnergy

Beyondfission,theTrumpadministrationhasalsoindicatedinterestinanotheradvancedformofnuclearenergy—fusion.The

DepartmentofEnergy‘ssecretarialorderdesignedto“unleashthegoldeneraofAmericanenergydominance,”includedincreasingR&Dsupportforfusionenergy.Theadministration’sOneBigBeautifulBillhaspreservedtheInflationReductionAct’s“technology-neutral”

productionandinvestmenttaxcreditsfornuclearpower(withtighterForeignEntityofConcernProvisions)andaddedanuclearenergybonustaxcreditforadvancednuclearfacilities.

Thoughalsoaformofenergyderivedfromthenucleiofatoms,fusionisdrasticallydifferentfromfissionandcircumventsthehistoricalconcernsthatfissionfaces.Whilenuclearfissioninvolvessplittingatomicnuclei,fusionisthereactioninwhichtwolightatomicnuclei

insteadcombinetoformasingleheavierone,whichreleasesmassiveamountsofenergy–thesameprocessthatoccursinthesun.Fusionproducesfourtimesmoreenergyperunitofmassthanfission,andnearlyfourmilliontimesmoreenergythanoilorcoal.Harnessinga

fusionreactiononearthrequiresstabilizinganionizedgascalledplasmaatextremepressuresandtemperaturesofover100million

degreesCelsius.Unlikewithnuclearfission,thedifficultyofmaintainingtheseconditionsmeansthereisnoriskofarunawaychain

reactionormeltdownrisk,becauseanydisruptiontotheseconditionsstopsthefusionreaction.Andunliketheenricheduraniumusedtopowerfission,mostofthefuelsusedinfusionarefarlessradioactive,ornotradioactiveatall,andcannotbeweaponized.These

attributesinsulatefusionenergyfromsomeoftherisksassociatedwithfusion.Assuch,theUSNuclearRegulatoryCommissionhas

declareditwillregulatefusionenergyunderthesameregulatoryregimeasparticleaccelerators,ratherthanunderthestricterregimethatcoversnuclearfission.

Despitetheseadvantages,fusiontechnologyisn’tquitehereyet.Thereareseveraltechnologicalandengineeringchallengesthatneedtobeovercomebeforefusionenergyiscommercialized:maintainingplasmastabilityathightemperatures;developingmaterialsforthe

reactorthatcanwithstandtheheatandpotentialradiationofthefusionreaction;reducingfusion’sLCOE;and,dependingonthefueltypeused,managingthefuelcycle.Fusioncompaniesareapproachingthesechallengesindifferentways,withgrowingconvictionthatthe2030swillbeadefinitivedecadeforthecommercializationoffusionenergy.

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FusionisSteadilyProgressingTowardsCommercialEnergyProduction

Therehasbeenahugeaccelerationinprogressoverthelastthreeyears.In2022,USscientistsatLawrenceLivermoreNational

Laboratory(LLNL)firstachieved“ignition,”generatingmoreenergyfromafusionreactionthanwasputinandprovidingscientific

evidencethatfusionenergyonearthispossible.Scientistsarelearninghowtostabilizeplasmaforlonger:inFebruaryofthisyear,theWESTreactorinFrancesetaplasmadurationrecordofover22minutes,smashingtherecordsetbytheEastreactorinChinajusta

monthearlierofover17minutes.AndresearchersareusingAItoenhancefusionsimulationstobetterpredictplasmabehaviorandoptimizereactordesigns,whichcouldfurtherspeedupprogress.

Astheprospectoffusionenergyonthegridbecomestangibleforthefirsttime,fusioncompaniesaresettingtheirsightson

commercialization.LikeSMRcompanies,todayfusioncompaniesarelayingthegroundworkforcommercialexpansionevenastheyworktowardshittingkeymilestones.In2023,Microsoftsigneda50MWPPAwithUS-basedprivatefusioncompanyHelion,markingthefirst-evercommercialfusioncontract.Helionexpectstheplanttobeonlineby2028.In2025,Googlesigneda200MWPPAandEnisigneda

400MWPPAwithCommonwealthFusionSystems(CFS),anotherUS-basedprivatefusioncompanythatexpectsthattheirinauguralpowerplantwillgenerateelectricitybytheearly2030s.

Therearethreemainapproachesbeingpursuedintheraceforfusionenergy:

?Magneticconfinement,whichusesstrongmagneticfieldscreatedbyhigh-temperaturesuperconductingmagnetstoconfineandstabilizefuelandinduceafusionreaction.

?Inertialconfinement,whichusespowerfullaserstocompressfueluntilafusionreactionoccurs.

?Magneto-inertialfusion,whichusesmagneticconfinementtocontainplasmafuelbutinertialconfinementtocompressthemtogetherandachieveafusionreaction.

Theapproachtakeninformsthetypeoffuelthatisusedandthewayelectricityisgenerated.Mostapproachesharnessheatfromthereactiontogeneratesteamtopowerturbines,butsome,namelyHelion,areattemptingthedirectcaptureofelectricity.

Beyondthesedifferencesintechnologicalapproaches,therearemacro-leveldistinctionsinhowfusionresearchisbeingconductedacrosstheglobe,openinganadditionalarenaforglobalcompetition.

Historically,fusionresearchhasbeencarriedoutinlabsatthenationalandmultilaterallevel,withambitiousinternationalprojectslikeITER.Butasthecommercializationofthistechnologynears,countriesarenowinanintensecompetitiontodevelopcommercialfusionpower,withtheUnitedStatesandChinaattheforefront.IntheUnitedStatesthiseffortisledbyprivatestart-ups,whereasinChinathegovernmentisbuildingupastate-backedfusionprogram.

TheUnitedStateshasarguablytheworld’sstrongestprivatefusionsector,boasting25oftheworld’s45privatefusioncompanies

surveyedbytheFusionIndustryAssociation(FIA),andaround80%oftheover$6billioninequityinvestmentsintoprivatefusion

companies.TheUnitedStatesisalsohometothreefusioncompanieswidelyregardedasthefront-runners–CommonwealthFusion

Systems(CFS),HelionEnergy,andTAETechnologies–whohavesomeofthemostaggressivetimelinestocommercialization.Theyalsohaveprominentbackers,includingSamAltmanforHelionandBillGates’BreakthroughEnergyVenturesforCFS.

Chinahasconsistentlyuseditsabilitytofund,build,andscaleprojectsquicklytobecomeagloballeaderincleanenergytechnologies,

fromsolarpanelstoelectricvehicles.Now,itisapplyingasimilarstrategytofusion,byusingenormousamountsofstatefundingtobuildupdomesticplayerswhowillbeabletocomp