IncollaborationwiththeMinistryofForeignTradeoftheUnitedArabEmiratesandAbu

DhabiDepartmentofEconomicDevelopment

TheTradeTechParadox:

ConnectivityAmidFragmentation

INSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2026

Images:AdobeStock,Midjourney,StudioMiko.

Contents

Foreword3

Executivesummary4

Introduction5

1

Thetradestack6

1.1Globalfoundationalframework7

1.2Nationalgovernancelayer8

1.3Tradeenablerlayer8

1.4Enterpriselayer9

1.5Interactionsbetweenlayers9

2

Thetradetechstack10

2.1Single-layerconnections:innovationswithinlayers11

2.3Multi-layerconnections–bridginglayers17

3

Beyondthetech22

3.1Inter-governmentalcollaboration23

3.2Connectorcountries25

3.3Cross-layerpartnerships26

3.4Datainfrastructure27

3.5Humancapacity28

3.6Ethics29

4

Strategicforesightstresstest:exploringtheresilience30

oftradetechnologiesinachangingworld

Conclusion34

Contributors35

Endnotes37

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TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation2

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation3

January2026

TheTradeTechParadox:

ConnectivityAmidFragmentation

Foreword

B?rgeBrende

PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,WorldEconomicForum

ThanibinAhmedAlZeyoudi

MinisterofForeignTrade,

MinistryofForeignTradeofthe

UnitedArabEmirates

AhmedJasimAlZaabi

Chairman,AbuDhabiDepartmentofEconomicDevelopment

Theworldisenteringaperiodofprofound

transformationinglobaltrade.Shiftinggeopolitical

alignmentsandevolvingsupplypatternsare

reshapingglobalflows,redefininghoweconomies

connectandcompeteandredrawingthemapof

internationalcommerce.Tradetechnologyhas

emergedasasourceofstabilityandprogress,

reinforcingtrustandcontinuity,helpingglobalsupplychainsremainconnectedamidrapidchange.

Thisyear’sreportshowcasescatalyticefforts

designedtoresponsiblyscaleinnovations,includingtheTradeTechRegulatorySandbox,helping

technologysolutionsincreasetrustandefficiencyinglobaltrade.

Atthecoreofthisyear’sworkliesanewconceptuallens:thetradetechstack.Thisrevealshow

tradeislinkedacrossglobalinstitutions,national

regulators,enablersandenterprisesthrougha

single,integrateddigitalcontinuum.Withinthis

structure,technologyisnotaseparatecomponent,itfunctionsastheconnectiveinfrastructurethat

integrateseverylayer,ensuringthatcommerceremainsefficient,predictableandinclusive,eveninchallengingtimes.

Thereportunderscoresthattechnology’spotentialisbestrealizedwhenitisguidedbycollaboration.Tradetechbothrequirescollaborationbetween

governments,industryandtechnologypartners,

andenablesit–turningcomplexityintoopportunity.

ThroughtheTradeTechGlobalInitiative,theUnitedArabEmiratesMinistryofForeignTrade,theAbuDhabiDepartmentofEconomicDevelopmentandtheWorldEconomicForumcontinuetoadvancethisvision,positioningtechnologyasastrategic

bridgebetweeneconomiesandacatalystforsharedprosperity.

Weinviteallstakeholderstojoinusinshapingafuturewheretradeisnotdividedbydisruptionbutstrengthenedbycollaboration,andwheretechnologyservesastheenduringbackbone

ofamoreresilientglobaleconomy.

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation4

Executivesummary

Inaneraofgeopoliticalfracture,thefutureoftradedependsonhowtechnology

connects,protectsandendures.

Althoughgeopoliticshasalwaysinfluencedglobaltrade,thescaleandspeedoftodaysshiftssignifyamoreprofoundtransformation.Specifically,

theglobalorderunderpinningtrade,notablythe

rules,alliancesandsystemsthathavegoverned

exchangefordecades,isbeingactivelyrewritten.Yetonetruthremainsconstant:theglobaleconomythrivesthemostwhensomelevelofstabilityand

directionispresent.Astheworldfragmentsandrebuilds,thecriticalquestionbecomes:howcantraderemainstable,connectedandresilient?

Technologyofferspartoftheanswer.Themodernintegrationofdigitalinfrastructureacrosseverylayerofthetradingsystemhasallowedglobalcommercetotransformfromaseriesoftransactionsinto

aninterconnected,adaptivenetworkcapableof

withstandingdisruption.Fromsmartlogisticsto

digitaltradefinance,technologyenablesvisibility,

trustandagilityacrossborders,helpingglobaltradeevolveeveninturbulenttimes.

Concreteexamplesthroughoutthereport

demonstratehowemergingtechnologiesarealreadyenablingnewefficienciesandinclusionacrossthetradeecosystem,suchas:

Agenticartificialintelligence(AI)andintelligent

assistantsempoweringsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs)tocompeteglobally

Digitaltradefinanceplatformswideningaccesstoliquidityandacceleratingtime-to-cash

Blockchainanddigitaldocumentationtoolsstrengtheningcompliance

Theinternetofthings(IoT),dataplatforms

anddigitaltwinsincreasingtransparencyandpredictabilityacrosscomplexsupplychains

However,technologyalonecannotsafeguardthe

systemitpowers.Asdigitalinfrastructurebecomesabargainingchipingeopoliticalcompetition,relyingontechnologyasthesolesolutionrisksdeepeningvulnerability.Thus,resilienttraderequiresmore

thaninnovation;itrequiresstronggovernance,collaborationandhumancapability.

Thisreportintroducesanewwaytovisualizethis

relationship:thetradetechstack.Thetradetech

stackillustrateshowinstitutions,technologyand

thepeoplewhodrivetheminteractasaliving

framework,onethatisconstantlyevolvingtoremaineffective.However,unliketheroleofgovernments,internationalorganizationsorenterprises,inthe

tradetechstack,technologyisnotafixedlayer;itisadynamictoolthatconnectseverysingleindividualandinstitution.Itistheconnectingfabricoftrade.

Thus,toensurethattraderemainsstable,

technologymustbeenabled.Thisyearsanalysishighlightsthreereinforcingpillarsessentialto

strengtheningtheconnectingfabricofglobaltrade:

1Collaborativegovernance

2Cross-layerpartnerships

3Humancapacity

Ultimately,theresilienceoftechnologyamid

geopoliticalshiftsdependsnotonlyondigital

innovationbutonhumancollaboration.By

reinforcingboththedigitalandhumanlayersoftheglobaltradingsystem,technology,asanintegral

partofthetradetechstack,providesapathway

towardsamoreinclusive,efficientandadaptiveeraofglobalcommerce.

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation5

Introduction

Geopoliticsisreshapingtradeand

technology,yetdigitaltoolscansustainflows,deepenresilienceandexpand

collaborationacrossborders.

SincetheendofWorldWarII,internationaltradehasbeenanchoredbyarules-basedsystem

andinstitutionsthatreducedtradebarriersand

expandedmarkets.TheGeneralAgreementon

TariffsandTrade(GATT),succeededbytheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO),providedtheframeworkforthegradualliberalizationofglobalexchange,

whichresultedina4,300%growthinworldtradelevelssince1950.1Technologicaldevelopmentsplayedakeyroleinthisgrowth;containerization,digitalnetworksanddata-drivenoperations

empoweredbusinessestobuildcomplexsupplychainsacrossborders.

Thistradegrowthisnowthreatenedbyheightenedgeopoliticalrisk.2Globalmerchandisetradevolumeisforecasttogrowbyonly2.4%in2025,down

from2.8%in2024,andslowevenfurtherin2026tojust0.5%asaresultofhighertariffsandtradepolicyuncertainty.3Discriminatorytradepolicieshaveseenaremarkableincrease,risingfrom55in2019to2,752in2024.4

Thisuncertaintradeenvironmentismakingitmoredifficultforbothgovernmentsandbusinesses

tooperate.Policy-makersaretryingtobalance

security,resilienceandcompetitivenesswhilefirmsmustreorganizetheirsupplychainsandcomply

withanincreasingnumberoftraderules.

Technologyisalsoaffectedbythesegeopoliticalshifts,notablythroughexportcontrols,datasovereigntyandmarketaccessrestrictions.Today,technologysitsattheintersectionofnationalsecurityandcompetitive

advantage.Technologycanenablethemovementofgoods,moneyanddata,creatingnewavenuesfor

collaborationbetweenallactorsinthesystem,whilealsodeepeningstrategiccompetition,asnationsseektosecuretechnologicalsupremacy.

Inthiscontext,globaltradeisincreasinglyshapedbyatradetechparadox:geopoliticaltensions

ononehand,andunprecedentedtechnologicalconnectivityontheother.Politicaldivergenceandstrategicrivalriesarepullingsupplychainsapart,whiletechnologicalinnovationsareenablingnewformsofcollaborationandconnection.

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation6

1

Thetradestack

Thetradestackisalivingframeworkthat

revealshowinstitutionsandbusinessescometogethertoshapemoderncommerce.

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation7

Becauseinternationaltradeinvolvesmany

overlappingsystemsandactors,itisdifficultto

captureinasimple,cohesiveframework.Thetradestackoffersawaytoorganizeandunderstand

thecomplexwebofmoderninternationaltrade.Itprovidesaframeworkthatgroupsthemanyactorsandinstitutionsinvolvedinglobalcommerceinto

severalconnectedlayers.Eachlayerrepresentsadifferentfunctionofhowtradeisgoverned,enabledandcreated.

Thestackisnotastricthierarchyoracomplete

descriptionofreality,butatoolforunderstanding

howthesystemfitstogether.Becausetradeis

deeplyinterconnected,therewillalwaysbeoverlapbetweenlayers,andsomeorganizationsorsystemsmayoperateacrossmorethanone.Othersmay

notfitneatlyintoanysinglelayer.Thisoverlapis

intentional:itshowsthattheglobaltradingsystemisnotasetofseparateparts,butanetworkwherepolicy,facilitationandproductionconstantlyinteract.

Globalfoundationalframework

1.1

Thislayerdoesn’tmoveorproduceanygoodsbutinsteaddecidesthecircumstancesunderwhich

globaltradecanfunction.

Theglobalfoundationalframeworkdefinesthe

institutionalandnormativebaseofthetrade

system.Itconsistsofinternationalorganizations,multilateralagreementsandstandard-setting

bodiesthatestablishtherules,normsandsharedcommitmentsguidingglobalcommerce.

Globalfoundationalframework

TABLE1

Examplesofparticipatingactors

Roles

MultilateralorganizationssuchastheWTO,InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),WorldBank,UnitedNationsTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD);regionaltradeblocssuchastheEuropeanUnion,AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

(ASEAN),andtheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea(AfCFTA);plurilateraleconomicpartnerships

InternationalstandardsbodiessuchastheInternationalOrganizationfor

Standardization(ISO),InternationalTelecommunicationUnion(ITU),andWorldCustomsOrganization(WCO);datagovernancealliances

WTOcommitteesanddisputepanels,internationalarbitrationcourts,regionaleconomiccouncils

DevelopmentbankssuchastheWorldBank,AsianDevelopmentBank(ADB),AfricanDevelopmentBank(AfDB);UNagencies;donoralliances

TheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),theInternationalLabourOrganization(ILO),theGlobalReporting

Initiative(GRI)

Academicconsortia,thinktanknetworks,intergovernmentalresearchbodies

Establishinternationaltradeandeconomicframeworksthatgoverncross-borderexchange,competitionandcooperation.

Developglobalstandardsandnormsforproductquality,safety,datagovernanceandinteroperabilityacrossborders.

Coordinatemultilateralagreementsanddisputesettlementmechanismstoensurestabilityandfairnessinglobaltrade.

Provideglobalfinancing,developmentassistance,and

technicalcapacity-buildingfortradeinfrastructureanddigitaltransformation.

Defineandpromotesustainability,labourandhumanrightsframeworksthatguideethicalandinclusiveglobalcommerce.

Conveneresearch,knowledgeanddataplatformsthat

generatesharedevidenceandpolicyinsightforinternationaltradegovernance.

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation8

Nationalgovernancelayer

1.2

Thenationalgovernancelayertranslatesglobalframeworksintodomesticpolicyandregulation.

Itincludesnationalgovernments,ministriesand

agenciesthatcraftandenforcetradelaws,customs

procedures,fiscalinstrumentsanddigitalgovernancepolicies.Theseactorsensurecompliancewith

internationalobligationswhileprotectingnational

interestsandfosteringinnovationandcompetitiveness.

Nationalgovernancelayer

TABLE2

Roles

Setandenforcenationaltrade,economicandindustrialpolicytoguidecompetitiveness,innovationandsustainablegrowth

Regulatecustoms,tariffsandbordermanagementtoensurecompliancewithtradelawsandinternationalagreements.

Implementandenforcedomesticregulationforproductsafety,standardsandcertificationtoalignwithglobalnormsor

nationalpriorities.

Negotiateandadministertradeagreementsandinternationalcommitments,representingnationalinterestsinglobalforums.

Developandimplementdigitalanddatagovernancepoliciestoregulatecross-borderdataflows,digitaltradeandcybersecurity.

Overseeenvironmental,labourandsocialcomplianceframeworks,ensuringthatproductionandtradealignwithsustainabilityand

ethicalstandards

Designandadministerfiscalandfinancialmechanismsthatenabletradeandindustrialactivity,includingsubsidies,incentivesand

exportfinance

Ministriesofforeignaffairsandtradenegotiationunits,permanentmissionstointernationalorganizations

Ministriesofdigitaltransformationandinformationtechnology(IT),dataprotectionauthorities,cybersecurityagencies

Ministriesofenvironment,labourandsocialwelfare;sustainabilityandclimateagencies

Ministriesoffinance,export-importbanks,investmentpromotionagencies

Examplesofparticipatingactors

Ministriesordepartmentsoftrade,economyandindustry;nationalplanningcommissions

Customsandborderprotectionagencies,ministriesoffinanceorrevenue,tariffauthorities

Standardsandmetrologyorganizations,accreditationbodies,foodanddrugauthorities,productsafetyagencies

1.3

TABLE3

Tradeenablerlayer

Thetradeenablerlayeristheoperationalengineoftrade:theecosystemthatmoves,finances,verifiesandconnectsgoods,servicesanddataacross

Tradeenablerlayer

borders.Itincludeslogisticsandtransportproviders,financialintermediaries,certificationandinspectionagencies,andsustainabilityverifiers,amongothers.

Examplesofparticipatingactors

Roles

Transportanddistributegoodsacrossbordersthroughmaritime,air,railandlandnetworks,ensuringtheefficientandreliablemovementoftradeflows.

Shippinglinesandcarriers,aircargooperators,truckingandrail

freightcompanies,freightforwardersandthird-/fourth-partylogisticsproviders,portandterminaloperators

Portauthorities,airportoperators,inlandterminalsanddryports,freezonesandindustrialparks,infrastructuredevelopmentandmanagementagencies

Supplychainsoftwareproviders,digitalfreightplatforms,internetofthings(IoT)andsensornetworks,cargovisibilityandtrackingservices,digitaltwinsandlogisticsanalyticscompanies

Telecoms,satelliteproviders,internetexchangepoints,cloud-serviceoperators,identity-authenticationservices,applicationprogramminginterface(API)andblockchainnetworkproviders

Customsbrokers,certificationserviceproviders,tradecomplianceandconsultingfirms

Banksandtradefinanceinstitutions,fintechplatforms,paymentserviceproviders(PSPs),insuranceandreinsurancecompanies,blockchain-basedtradefinancenetworks

Operateandmanagephysicaltradeinfrastructure–suchasports,

airportsandspecialeconomiczones–thatconnectmarketsandenabletradecapacity.

Providelogisticstechnologyandsupplychainvisibilitysolutionsthatdigitize,optimizeandtrackglobaltradeoperations.

Providesecuredigitalinfrastructurethatconnectstradesystems,tradedataexchangeandoperationalcybersecurity.

Facilitatecustomsclearance,certification,andcompliancetoenablecompliantandefficientcross-bordertrade.

Enabletradefinance,insuranceandpayments,providingliquidity,riskmanagementandsettlementmechanismsforglobaltransactions

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation9

1.4

TABLE4

Enterpriselayer

Theenterpriselayerrepresentstheproductive

andinnovativecoreoftheglobaleconomy–theactorswhocreatewhatistraded.Enterprises

includeproducers,manufacturers,innovatorsand

Enterpriselayer

serviceproviderswhotransformresources,ideasandknowledgeintotradablegoods,services

andtechnologies.

Examplesofparticipatingactors

Roles

Grow,extractorharvestnaturalresources,agriculturalgoodsandenergyresourcesthatformthefoundationsofinternationalgoodstrade

Manufacture,byconvertingraworintermediategoodsintofinishedproductsthataretradedglobally

Innovate,researchanddevelopnewtechnologies,tools,digitalsystemsandprocessesthatareusedacrosssectors

Deliverknowledgeandprofessionalservice-basedsolutions,

includingconsulting,legal,healthcare,educationanddigitalservices

Farmersandagriculturalcooperatives,agribusinesses,fisheriesandforestryoperators,miningandextractiveindustries,energyproducers,commodityproducersandexporters

Industrialmanufacturers,assemblersandprocessors,equipmentandmachineryproducers,consumergoodsproducers,foodandbeverageprocessors,andindustrialsmallandmedium-sized

enterprises(SMEs)andcontractmanufacturers

Technologyenterprises,R&Dlabs,engineeringanddesignfirms,start-upsandscale-ups,softwareandITservicecompanies

Professionalserviceproviders(law,accounting,audit,finance,healthcare),consultingandadvisoryfirms

Interactionsbetweenlayers

Thestrengthofthetradestackliesinthesepointsof

connection,wherecollaborationandtechnologiesallowtheentiresystemtointeract,adaptandevolvetogether.

1.5

Thelayersofthetradestackaredesignedto

clarifyroleswithinthecomplexwebthatisthe

interconnectedglobaltradingsystem,nottocreaterigidboundaries.Regulatedbypolicy,theflowoftrade,dataandmoneymeansthatactorsoften

operateacrosslayers.Forexample:

–Atechcompanymightbuilddigitalinfrastructurethatsupportsenterprisesandenablestrade

–Nationalgovernmentsparticipateinglobalpolicy-makingwhileregulatingandenforcingrulesatthenationallevel

–Logisticsfirms,banksanddigitalplatforms

frequentlyactasbothenablersandinnovators

Thetrade“stack”and“l(fā)ayer”metaphorsrecognizethateachpartofthesystemhasitsprimary

functions,butinteractscontinuouslywiththe

others.Thestrengthofthetradestackliesinthese

pointsofconnection,wherecollaborationandtechnologiesallowtheentiresystemtointeract,adaptandevolvetogether.

Noneoftheselayersexistsinisolation,andeach

isbeingreshapedbyachanginggeopolitical

landscapethatisredefiningtraderelationships,

investmentflowsandthetechnologiesthatconnecttheentiresystem.Forsome,thisfragmentationandpolicydivergenceareaddingfriction,uncertainty

andduplication.Forothers,thisshiftiscreatingnewopportunities:connectorcountriesareemergingasneutralhubs,digitalinfrastructureisopeningnew

pathwaysforcollaborationandcooperation,andfirmsareinnovatingfastertomeetnewdemands.Thetradestackreflectsthisreality:itisnotastaticstructure,butalivingsystemevolvingunderthe

pressureofgeopoliticsandglobalchange.Amidtheseshifts,technologyisplayinganenablingrolebyfacilitatingconnection,trustandcollaborationwithinandacrossalllayers.

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation10

2

Thetradetechstack

Technologyanddataformthedigitalfabricofthetradestack,connectingeverylayerbyenablingtrust,visibilityandcollaboration.

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation11

Servingasthe

connectingfabricofthisframework,technologyand

dataareenabling

newformsof

coordinationacrossgovernments,

enablersand

enterprises.

Thetradestackintroducedthemanyactorsthatshapeinternationaltrade,butunderstandingwhotheactorsareandwhattheydoisonlythefirstpart.Therealtransformationcomesfromhow

theselayersconnectandexchangeinformation.

Astradesystemsbecomemorecomplexandinterconnected,technologyanddataarethecommonlanguagethatbindsthemtogether.

Acrossports,borders,financialinstitutionsand

digitalmarketplaces,technologyanddatanow

providethesharedinfrastructureandnetworksthataretransformingtradefromaseriesoftransactions

intoaconnectedglobalsystem.Thisevolution

markstheshiftfromthetraditionaltradestackto

theemergingtradetechstack,asystemwhere

digitalcapabilitiesareembeddedineverylayer

ofglobalcommerce.Servingastheconnecting

fabricofthisframework,technologyanddata

areenablingnewformsofcoordinationacross

governments,enablersandenterprises.Fromdigitalportsandblockchainnetworkstosupplychain

toolsandfintechinnovationsdrivenbyartificial

intelligence(AI),thesetechnologiesarepoweringamoreconnected,cooperativeandresilientglobaltradingsystem.

Thetradetechstack

FIGURE1

Enterpriselayer

Tradeenablerlayer

NationalgovernancelayerGlobalfoundationalframework

Note:Thisfigureprovidesanoverviewofthetradestack,showinghowtechnologyactsastheconnectingfabricbetweeneachlayer.

Giventhestrainoneachlayerasaresultof

geopoliticalrealignmentsandgrowingeconomicfragmentation,theconnectingfabricismore

importantthanever.Thedigitalplatforms,data-

sharingsystemsandintelligenttoolsoutlinedintherestofthissectiondemonstratehowtechnologyisincreasingvisibility,predictabilityandcollaborationacrossborders,thusstrengtheningthetradestack.

2.1

Single-layerconnections:innovationswithinlayers

Single-layerinnovationsempowerandconnect

actorswithinlayers.Theyserveonelayer’s

workflowswithoutcreatingcross-layergovernanceorco-managedprocesses.

Augmentinghumancapital

Thistypeofinnovationcanbeparticularlyusefulforsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs),

whichfaceresourcechallengesrelativetolargerenterprises.AccordingtoresearchfromAlibaba.com,anestimated40%ofglobalSMEsoperateassoloentrepreneurs,andtheyhavehistoricallystruggledtocompeteduetolimitationsintime,

finance,personnelandindustryknow-how.Atthesametime,63%ofSMEsareactivelyexploring

waystoharnessAIforglobaltrade,given

theirpotential.

TheTradeTechParadox:ConnectivityAmidFragmentation12

TABLE5

AcomparativeassessmentoflargeenterprisesandSMEcompetitivenessinglobaltradenetworks

Dedicatedlegalteams

managecustoms,tariffsandinternationalstandards

Fewerresourcesforandcertification

complianceNon-compliancerisksexcludeSMEs

fromhigh-valueorregulatedmarkets

Regulatorycompliance

Areaofadvantage

Capitalandfinancing

Economiesofscale

Technology

and

infrastructure

Global

networks

Largebusinesses

Accesstosubstantialcapitalreserves,globalinvestorsandfavourablelendingterms

Achievelowerper-unitcoststhroughbulkproductionandlogistics

efficiencies

Investinautomation,AIanalytics,blockchaintrackingandadvancedlogisticssystems

Establishedpartnerships,

subsidiariesandlong-termsupplierrelationships

WhythisplacesSMEsatadisadvantage

Constrainsabilitytoscale

operations,investininfrastructureorabsorbtradeshocks

Resultsinuncompetitivepricingandlowerprofitmarginsin

globalmarkets

Leadstoinefficiencies,s