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農(nóng)ARKINVEST
BIGIDEAS2026
BIGIDEAS2026RESEARCHREPORTFORINFORMATIONALPURPOSESONLYARKInvestmentManagementLLC
Thisisnotarecommendationinrelationtoanynamedparticularsecurities/cryptocurrenciesandnowarrantyorguaranteeisprovided.Anyreferencestoparticularsecurities/cryptocurrenciesareforillustrativepurposesonly.ThereisnoassurancethattheAdviserwillmakeanyinvestmentswiththesameorsimilarcharacteristicsasanyinvestmentpresented.Thereadershouldnotassumethataninvestmentidentifiedwasorwillbeprofitable.PASTPERFORMANCEISNOTINDICATIVEOFFUTUREPERFORMANCE,FUTURERETURNSARENOTGUARANTEED.
2ARKBigIdeas2026
RisksOfInvesting
InInnovation
Pleasenote:CompaniesthatARKbelievesarecapitalizingondisruptiveinnovationanddevelopingtechnologiestodisplaceoldertechnologiesor
createnewmarketsmaynotinfactdoso.ARKaimstoeducateinvestorsandseekstosizethepotentialinvestmentopportunity,notingthatrisksanduncertaintiesmayimpactourprojectionsandresearchmodels.Investorsshouldusethecontentpresentedforinformationalpurposesonly,
andbeawareofmarketrisk,disruptiveinnovationrisk,regulatoryrisk,andrisksrelatedtocertaininnovationareas.
RISKOFINVESTINGININNOVATION
Pleasereadriskdisclosurecarefully.
RAPIDPACEOFCHANGE
EXPOSUREACROSSSECTORSANDMARKETCAP
UNCERTAINTYANDUNKNOWNS
DISRUPTIVEINNOVATION
REGULATORYHURDLES
POLITICALORLEGALPRESSURE
COMPETITIVELANDSCAPE
Aimforacross-sectorunderstandingoftechnologyandcombinetop-downandbottom-upresearch.
Aimtounderstandtheregulatory,market,sector,
andcompanyrisks.(SeeDisclosurePage)
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026.
3ARKBigIdeas2026
BigIdeas2026marksthe10thannualeditionofARKInvest’sflagship
researchreport,designedtoidentifyandcontextualizethetechnologies
reshapingtheglobaleconomy.Eachyear,wesiftthroughshort-termnoisetofindsignalandfocusonlong-terminnovationplatforms,asexponentialtechnologiesareconverging,marketsaretransforming,andentirelynew
opportunitiesareemerging.BigIdeasisnotaforecastofincrementalchange.Itisaframeworkforunderstandingstep-functionchangesingrowth.
Inthisyear’sreport,weexplore13BigIdeasspanningartificialintelligence,robotics,energy,blockchain,space,andbiology.Basedonourresearchinbothpublicandprivatemarkets,theseBigIdeasarecompoundingto
redefineproductivity,capitalallocation,andcompetitiveadvantageacrossindustries.Weexaminehowthesetechnologiesaremovingfrom
experimentationtoscale,andhowtheirconvergenceisacceleratingthepaceofchangefasterthanconsensusexpectations.
Foradecade,BigIdeashasservedasasignalforwhat’snext.BigIdeas
2026continuesthatmission,equippinginvestors,businesses,and
decision-makerswithaclearerviewofwhereinnovationisheadingbeforeitbecomesobvious.
Thefuturedoesn’tarriveallatonce.ThosewhorecognizeitearlyhavetheopportunitytoOwnWhat’sNext.
WelcometoARKInvest’sBigIdeas2026.
TheGreatAcceleration04
AIInfrastructure
19
TheAIConsumerOperatingSystem
25
AIProductivity
32
Bitcoin
38
TokenizedAssets
45
DecentralizedFinanceApplications
52
Multiomics
58
ReusableRockets
78
Robotics
83
DistributedEnergy
90
AutonomousVehicles
95
AutonomousLogistics101
4
ARKBigIdeas2026:
TheGreatAcceleration
TheGreat
Acceleration
AIIsTheCentralDynamo,
AcceleratingFiveMajorInnovationPlatformsAndIgnitingAnInflectionInMacroeconomicGrowth
BrettWinton
ChiefFuturist
5
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
DigitalWalletsProgrammableBiology
TechnologicalConvergenceIsAccelerating
Fivemajorinnovationplatforms—AI,
PublicBlockchains,Robotics,Energy
Storage,andMultiomics—arebecomingincreasinglyinterdependentas
performanceadvancesinoneplatformunlocknewcapabilitiesinanother.
ReusableRocketssendingAutonomousMobilityAIchipstoorbitcouldbecomecriticaltoscalingtheNextGenCloud.
MultiomicsdatapermissionedonDigitalWalletscouldpowerNeuralNetworks
thatcatalyzethedevelopmentof
PrecisionTherapiestocurerarediseases.
Smart
Contracts
Multiomics
NeuralTechnology
IntelligentDevices
Networks
Crypto
currencies
PrecisionTherapies
NextGenCloud
HumanoidRobots
Distributed
Energy
Generation
AutonomousMobility
ReusableRockets
Advanced
BatterySp
EQ\*jc3\*hps28\o\al(\s\up6(e),R)
EQ\*jc3\*hps28\o\al(\s\up6(ciali),obot)
EQ\*jc3\*hps28\o\al(\s\up6(z),s)
ed
Technology
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
6
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
RelativeImportanceAsATechnologicalCatalyst
u20232024u2025
AIEnergy
Storage
Public
Blockchains
RoboticsMultiomic
Sequencing
Disruptivetechnologiesareintermeshing.
ConvergenceNetworkStrength,ameasureofthedegreetowhichdisruptive
technologiesarecatalyzingandbeing
catalyzedbyeachother,increased35%in2025.
AIremainsthecriticalenablinginnovationplatform,theimportanceofroboticsasacatalystinflectedin2025.
Amongmajornewdevelopments:the
world’slargestrobots—reusablerockets—couldplayanextraordinaryroleinenablingAI;energystorageanddistributedenergy
systemshavebecomecriticalenablersof
nextgencloudbuild-outs;andsmart
contractsandstablecoinscouldsupportaglobaldigitalmonetaryecosystem,allowingAIagentstocoordinateanddirectreal-
worldresources.
TechnologyPlatformGrowthRatesAreAcceleratingAndCatalyzingOneAnother
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
ConvergenceNetworkStrength
(100PointScale)
+35%+20%
202320242025
Note:Networkstrengthmeasurestherealizedweightedstrengthofeachnetworkconnectioninrelationtothemaximumpossibleweightedstrengthinafullyconnectednetwork.Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026,basedondatafromWinton2024.Inadditiontothatsource,certaininformationpresentedmaybetheresultofARK’sinternalanalyses,whichdrawonvariousadditionalsourcesofinformation.Forinformational
purposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
7
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
ConvergenceShouldLeadToMajorIncreasesInDemand
Neuralnetworkdemandfornextgencloudcomputeisrunningintoearthlyscalingconstraints.Reusablerocketscouldcometotherescue.Ata
Upmassrequiredto
satisfy100GWofAI
compute
Additionalupmass
expectedtobuild
outtheStarlink
constellation
through2030
Totalcumulative
upmassbySpaceX
through2025
ReusableRocketDemand
TonsToOrbit
10000000
~60x
~11x
(LogScale)
1000000
100000
10000
1000
100
10
1
competitivecost,space-basedAIcomputecouldprovidethecloudwiththecomputationalpowerthatneuralnetworksneedforcontinuedgrowth.AIchipgrowthcouldincreasedemandforreusablerockets60xrelativetoourexistingmodel.
SpaceAIComputevsTerrestrialAICompute
($PerTokenRatio)
10,000
7,079
5,012
3,548
2,512
1,778
1,259
891
631
447
316
224
158
112
79
56
40
28
20
14
Terrestrial/SpaceRatio(LogScale)
5
Oncurrent
launchcosts,
spacecomputewouldbe30%morecostly
thanterrestrialcompute
Onprospectivelaunch
costs,spacebased
computecouldprove
25%lessexpensivethanterrestrialcompute
0.5
CostPerkgLaunch
(LogScale)
Note:ARKinternalanalysisonthisemergingopportunity.Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026,basedondatafromSpaceX2025a,SpaceX2025b,Maguireetal.2025.Inadditiontothosesources,certaininformationpresentedmaybetheresultofARK’sinternalanalyses,whichdrawonvariousadditionalsourcesofinformation.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceora
recommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
8
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
TheWorldIsEnteringAnUnprecedentedTechnologyInvestmentCycle
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1852
1855
1858
1861
1864
1867
1870
1873
1876
1879
1882
1885
1888
1891
1894
1897
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2030
Railroad
Cars
Software
ComputersAnd
ElectrificationSemiconductors
Comms.Equipment
Telephony
Ecommerce
SelectHistoricalTechnologicalInvestmentWaves
CapitalExpendituresAsPercentOfGDP
AISoftware
AIDataCenters
Space
Terrestrial
Robotaxis
Note:AllHistoricallinesareUSfixedassetannualgrossinvestmentaspercentofUSGDPandderivedfromtheNIPAtables.“Ecommerce”signifieswarehouseinvestments.DatacenterandRobotaxiarepercentofglobal
consensusglobalGDPderivedfromtheIMFasof12/31/2025.SpacedatacenteropportunityderivedfromSpaceXpublicstatements.HistoricalinvestmentcycleinvestmentdollarsaresourcedfromARKInvestment
ManagementLLC,2026,basedondatafromUlmer1960,InternationalMonetaryFund2025,andNationalBureauofEconomicResearch1958.Inadditiontothosesources,certaininformationpresentedmaybetheresultofARK’sinternalanalyses,whichdrawonvariousadditionalsourcesofinformation.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticular
security.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
9
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
DisruptiveTechnologiesCanCatalyzeGrowthInMultipleWays
Accelerates
Capital
Formation
Frees
Human
Potential
ForMore
Productive
Use
DisruptiveTechnology
Transforms
Non-Market
ActivityInto
GDP
Increases
ReturnsOn
Deployed
Capital
Robotaxis
Automobile
Replacement
Cycle
8xIncrease
InMiles
Utilization
PerVehicle
Personal
ShiftFrom
Driving
ToPaid
Service
ShiftIn
Personal
DriveTime
ToWorkOr
Leisure
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
10
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
Currently,only$2,600ofthe~$68,000averagevalueof
homeupkeepflowsthroughtogrossdomesticproduct(GDP).
AsinglehouseholdhumanoidrobotcouldimpactGDPby
$62,000peryear.
Ahouseholdhumanoidrobotineachofthe90millionUSowneroccupiedhomescouldincreaseGDPbynearly$6
trillion,or20%.
Ifhumanoidswereto
penetrate80%ofUS
householdsoverfiveyears,
GDPgrowthcouldacceleratefrom2-3%peryearto5-6%peryear.
EachDisruptiveTechnologyCouldGenerateProfoundMacroeconomicResults,HumanoidRobotsInTheHome,AGoodCaseInPoint
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$-
ImpactOfHomeUpkeepOnGDPPerYear
Notincluded$65,000
Included$2,600
PaidHousehold
MaintenanceAndCare
ImputedLaborCostOfMaintenanceAndCarePerformedByOwners
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$-
Amortized1
YearCapital
ExpenseOf
ARobot
Robot
OperatingCostDisplacingPaid
Services
ConsumerSurplus
Homeowner
TimeFreed,
HalfOfWhich
DevotedTo
PaidLabor
ImpactOfASingleHouseholdHumanoidRobotOnGDPPerYear
Surplus
Included$62,000
Betterhouseholdservice
Imputedvalueleisurehours
$7,100
$31,000
$3,600
$20,000
Robot
OperatingCost
OnWork
OtherwiseLeft
Undone
Note:Thechartcalculationsassumethatconsumersarewillingtopayforadurablegoodata25%discountrateandvaluetheirunpaidtimeathalftheaveragewagerate.“Homeupkeep”focusesonthelaborportionofhomeupkeep.ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026,basedondatafromU.S.BureauofLaborStatistics.2025c,U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics.2025d,Tesla2025.Inadditiontothosesources,certaininformationpresentedmaybetheresultofARK’sinternalanalyses,whichdrawonvariousadditionalsourcesofinformation.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
11
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
ThisTechnologicalRevolutionShouldLeadToAnotherStepChangeInRealGDPGrowth
Historically,technologyparadigmshiftshaveledtostructuralchangesinGDPgrowth.
Capitalinvestmentalone,catalyzedbydisruptiveinnovationplatforms,couldadd1.9percentage
pointstoannualizedrealGDPgrowththisdecade.
Thenewcapitalbase—robotaxis,nextgendata
centers,andenterpriseinvestmentsinAIagents—shouldboostreturnsoninvestedcapital.Realizedrealgrowthcouldexceedconsensusexpectations
bymorethan4percentagepointsperyearasotherinnovationsbegintoimpactthegrowthtrajectory.
Eachinnovationplatform—AI,PublicBlockchains,Robotics,EnergyStorage,andMultiomics—shouldprovideastructuralboosttoglobalgrowth.
GlobalRealGDPGrowth
100.0%
10.0%
2030
ARKForecast7.3%
IMFForecast3.1%
3%
LogScale
1.0%
0.6%0.3%
0.14%
0.1%
.037%
1
1000
1500
1900
2025
0.0%
BC
100,000
LogYearsUntil2030
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026,basedondatafromDeLong1998,OpenPhilanthropy2025,andMaddison2007.Inadditiontothosesources,certaininformationpresentedmaybetheresultofARK’sinternalanalyses,whichdrawonvariousadditionalsourcesofinformation.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
12
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
ProjectedProgressInQuantumComputing
DistanceFromCrackingRSA2048
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
204420542063
StatusQuoCase
Doubling
qubitcountanderror
reductionsevery4
years
Currentrateof
progress(Google):
doublingqubitsand
reducingerrorrateby40%every4years
SomeInterestingTechnologiesLikeQuantumComputingAreUnlikelyToBeDisruptiveFor20To40Years
AggressiveCase
Moore’sLaw
doublinginqubitcountanderrorratereduction
every2years
Acceleration
Case
Doubling
qubitcountanderror
reductionsevery3
years
Adisruptivetechnologyrequiresasteepcost
declinecrossingkeyprice-pointsthatopen
compellinguniteconomicsacrossmultiple
sectorsandservesasaplatformforadditionaltechnologicalinnovation.
Quantumcomputing’sperformance
improvementcurvehasbeenslow.Despite
spendingbillionsinresearchanddevelopment(R&D),Googledoubledqubitsonlyonceinmorethanfouryears.Evenifitsperformanceand
costsweretoimprovemarkedly,achieving
2020
2027
2034
2041
2048
2055
2062
Moore’sLaw’space,quantumcomputingwouldnotbeusefulforcryptographicdecryptionuntilthe2040s.
Note:A“qubit”(quantumbit)isthefundamentalunitofinformationinaquantumcomputer.Moore’sLawistheempiricalobservationthatthenumberoftransistorsonanintegratedcircuitdoublesapproximatelyevery
twoyears.Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026,basedondatafromAruteetal.2019,Gambette2023,Quantinuum2024,andNeven2024.Inadditiontothosesources,certaininformationpresentedmaybetheresultofARK’sinternalanalyses,whichdrawonvariousadditionalsourcesofinformation.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
13
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
DisruptiveTechnologiesCouldGrowToDominateGlobalMarkets
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
InnovationShare
OfGlobalEquityMarketCapitalization
(Percent)
1870
Railroad
ShareOfUSEquityMarket
Crypto
VentureUnicorns
PublicInnovation
2000200520102015202020252030E
250
2010
6.9%
6.2%
-2.7%
2025
6.4%
4.3%
20.0%
2015
2.5%
4.5%
-0.5%
2020
2.6%
7.8%
18.0%
2005
7.0%
11.0%
3.6%
2030E
5-YearAnnualGrowthRates
9%
-4%
35%
NominalGDP($Trillions,Nominal)
300
InnovationMarketCap
Non-InnovationMarketCap
200
150
100
50
0
2000
NominalGDP
Non-Innovation
Innovation
Note:Innovationmarketcapincludesnon-stablecoincryptoassets.Pre-2015innovationmarketcapistechsectorshareofglobalmarkets.Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026,basedondatafromInternationalMonetaryFund2025,Crunchbase2026,WorldFederationofExchanges2026,andBureauofLaborStatistics2026,andMSCIInc.2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
14ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
ArtificialIntelligence
Computationalsystemsandsoftwarethatevolvewithdata
cansolveintractableproblems,automateknowledgework,
andacceleratetechnology'sintegrationintoeveryeconomic
sector.TheadoptionofNeuralNetworksshouldprovemoremomentousthanelectrificationandpotentiallycreatetensoftrillionsofdollarsofvalue.Atscale,thesesystemswill
requireunprecedentedcomputationalresources,andAI-
specificcomputehardwareshoulddominatetheNextGen
ClouddatacentersthattrainandoperateAImodels.The
potentialforend-usersisclear:aconstellationofAI-driven
IntelligentDevicesthatpermeatepeople'slives,changingthewaythattheyspend,work,andplay.Theadoptionofartificialintelligenceshouldtransformeverysector,impactevery
business,andcatalyzeeveryinnovationplatform.
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
15
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
EnergyStorage
ThedecliningcostsofAdvancedBatteryTechnologyshouldcauseanexplosioninformfactors,enablingAutonomous
Mobilitysystemsthatcollapsethecostoftransportation.
Electricdrivetraincostdeclinesshouldunlockmicro-mobilityandaerialsystems,includingflyingtaxis,enablingbusiness
modelsthattransformcities.Autonomyshouldreducethecostoftaxi,delivery,andsurveillancebyanorderof
magnitude,enablingfrictionlesstransportthatwillincreasethevelocityofe-commerceandmakeindividualcar
ownershiptheexceptionratherthantherule.These
innovationscombinedwithlarge-scalestationarybatteriesandDistributedEnergyGeneration,notablysolarandsmall-scalefission,shouldaddresssurgingpowerdemandfromAIdatacenterswhilesubstitutingelectricityforliquidfuelandincreasingsystem-wideresilience,reliability,andflexibility.
16ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
Multiomics
Thecosttogather,sequence,andunderstanddigitalbiological
dataisfallingprecipitously.MultiomicsTechnologiesprovide
researchscientists,therapeuticorganizations,andhealth
platformswithunprecedentedaccesstoDNA,RNA,protein,anddigitalhealthdata.Cancercareshouldtransformwithpan-
cancerbloodtests,andmoleculardiagnosticsshouldbeginto
identifyandcategorizeapanoplyofdiseases.Fedbyrich
multiomicsdataandpoweredbyProgrammableBiology,AI
systemsrunningautonomouslabscouldcollapsethecostof
drugdiscovery,development,andtrials,transformingreturnsinasectorthathasstagnated.BiologicaldiscoveriesshouldpowernovelPrecisionTherapiesthattargetandcurerarediseasesandchronicconditions,unlockingprofoundeconomics.Overtime,
thedesignandsynthesisofnovelbiologicalconstructswillyieldadvancesinagriculture,materialscience,andevencomputation.
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
17
ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
PublicBlockchains
Uponlarge-scaleadoption,allmoneyandcontracts
couldmigrateontoPublicBlockchainsthatenableandverifydigitalscarcityandproofofownership.The
financialecosystemislikelytoreconfigureto
accommodatetheriseofCryptocurrencies—includingstablecoinsthatbridgetraditionalfinanceand
decentralizednetworks—andSmartContracts.These
technologiesshouldincreasetransparency,reducetheinfluenceofcapitalandregulatorycontrols,and
collapsethecostsofcontractexecution.Insucha
world,DigitalWalletswillbecomeincreasingly
necessaryasmoreassetsbecomemoney-likeand
corporationsandconsumersadapttothenewfinancialinfrastructure.AsthesewalletsevolveintoAI-driven
purchasingagents,theycouldbecomepowerful
distributionplatformsfordigitalservices.Corporatestructurescouldbecalledintoquestion.
18ARKBigIdeas2026:TheGreatAcceleration
Robotics
Catalyzedbyartificialintelligence,HumanoidRobotsshould
operatealongsidehumansandnavigatelegacyinfrastructure,
changingthewayproductsaremadeandsold,andeventually
thewayweliveourlives.SpecializedRobots—fromindustrial
armstosurgicalandwarehousesystems—shouldproliferateas
AIcollapsesthecostofintegration,embeddingautomationintoeveryoperationalprocessacrossmanufacturing,logistics,
healthcare,andthephysicalworld.Meanwhile,ReusableRocketsshouldcontinuetoreducethecostoflaunchingsatellite
constellations,enableuninterruptibleconnectivityandearthobservation,andopenthefrontierforspace-basedcomputeinfrastructureunconstrainedbyterrestrialpowerandcoolinglimitations.Anascentinnovationplatform,roboticscould
collapsethecostoftransportingacrossdistancewith
hypersonictravel,thecostofmanufacturingcomplexitywithspecializedsystems,andthecostofphysicalworkwithAI-guidedhumanoidrobots.
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
19
ARKBigIdeas2026:
AIInfrastructure
AI
Infrastructure
DefiningTheNextGenerationOfTheCloud
FrankDowning
DirectorofResearch,AI&Cloud
JozefSoja
ResearchAnalyst,AI&Cloud
20
ARKBigIdeas2026:AIInfrastructure
DemandForAIIsGrowingRapidlyAsInferenceCostsCollapse
Billions
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
Nov-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
TokensInferencedOnOpenRouter
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Bysomemeasures,inferencecostshavedroppedmorethan99%inthepastyear.AsAI-nativeapplicationsproliferate,costdeclinesaredrivingexplosivegrowthinthenumberoftokensinferencedbydevelopers,enterprises,andconsumers.DemandforcomputeonOpenRouter,aunifiedapplicationprogramminginterface(API)foraccessinglargelanguagemodels(LLMs),hasincreased25-foldsinceDecember2024.
Price(USDPerMillionTokens)
$100
$10
$1
$0
InferenceCostsForFixedPerformance
ModelsWithanIntelligenceIndexAbove40
o1-preview($28.90permillion)
o1
DeepSeekR1
(Jan'25)
o3-mini
Gemini2.5
gpt-oss-20B
(low)($0.10per
million)
Flash-Lite
(Reasoning)
Grok3mini
Reasoning
(high)
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Source:ARKInvestmentManagementLLC,2026,basedondatafromArtificialAnalysis2025aandOpenRouter2026asofJanuary13,2026.Forinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuy,sell,orholdanyparticularsecurity.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Forecastsareinherentlylimitedandcannotbereliedupon.
21
ARKBigIdeas2026:AIInfrastructure
SinceTheChatGPTMoment,DataCenterSystemsGrowthHasAcceleratedFrom5%To29%AtAnAnnualRateSince
In2025,at~$500billion,annualinvestmentindatacentersystemswasnearly2.5xtheaveragefrom2012through2023.Accordingtoourresearch,this
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