1、PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,Chapter 4,Foundations of Decision Making,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,42,Psychological test,It is a story about a girl. While at the funeral of her own mother, she met this guy

2、whom she did not know. She thought this guy was amazing, so much her dream guy she believed him to be, that she fell in love with him there but never asked for his number and she went home thinking of that guy all day all night. Then one week later, she killed her own sister. So why did she want to

3、kill her own sister? ok, start cracking your brains now for the answer.,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,43,Psychological test,If you answered this correctly, you think like a psychopath. This was a test by a famous American psychologist used to test if one has the same mental

4、ity as a killer. Many arrested serial killers took part in this test and answered it correctly. If you did not answer correctly -,good for you.,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,44,L E A R N I N G O U T C O M E SAfter reading this chapter, I will be able to:,Steps in decision-m

5、aking process. Assumptions of the rational decision-making. Explain the limits to rationality. Define certainty, risk, and uncertainty,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,45,L E A R N I N G O U T C O M E S (contd)After reading this chapter, I will be able to:,two types of decisio

6、n problems and the two types of decisions. Describe the advantages and disadvantages of group decisions. Explain three techniques for improving group decision making.,Decisions 決策 choices from two or more alternatives Decision-Making A set of eight steps that includes identifying a problem, selectin

7、g a solution, and evaluating the effectiveness of the solution,Decision Making, Prentice Hall, 2002,6-6,a comprehensive, 8-step process,Decision-Making Process, Prentice Hall, 2002,6-7,任何方法不能保證你的決策是正確的，但是合理的方法可使你作出比別人更高明的決策。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,Decision-Making,Pro

8、blem A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs Decision criteria 決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn) Factors that are relevant in a decision,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,49,Criteria and Weight in Car-Buying Decision (Scale of 1 to 10) 購買汽車的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與權(quán)重,EXHIBIT 4.3,CRITERIONWEIGHT Price10

9、 Interior comfort8 Durability5 Repair record5 Performance3 Handling1,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,410,Assessment of Car Alternatives,EXHIBIT 4.4,INITIALINTERIORDURA-REPAIRALTERNATIVESPRICECOMFORTBILITYRECORDPERFORMANCEHANDLINGTOTAL Jeep Cherokee210875537 Ford Mustang965686

10、40 Mercedes C23085664635 Pontiac Grand Am95676538 Mazda Tribute569107744 Dodge Durango105643331 Volvo S6048768942 Isuzu Axiom76865638 BMW 32597644737 Audi A65854101042 Toyota Camry6510106643 Volkswagen Passat86657840,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,411,Weighting of Vehicles (

11、Assessment Criteria X Criteria Weight),EXHIBIT 4.5,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,412,Decision-making (contd),Decision implementation Putting a decision into action; includes conveying the decision to the persons,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,413,Ma

12、king Decisions: Circumstances,Certainty 確定性 the outcome of every possible alternative is known Uncertainty 不確定性 there is not full knowledge of the problem reasonable probabilities for alternative outcomes cannot be determined.,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,414,Making Decisi

13、ons: Circumstances,Risk 風(fēng)險性 The probability that a particular outcome will result from a given decision,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,415,一位上海出租司機(jī)如何晉身收入前三位？,“給你舉個例子。那天人民廣場，三個人在前面招手。一個年輕女子，拿著小包, 剛買完東西。還有一對青年男女，一看就是逛街的。第三個是個男子，拿著筆記本包。我看一個人只要3秒鐘。我毫不猶豫地停在這個 男子面前。這個男的上車后說：為什么你開到

14、我面前？前面還有兩個人，他們要是想上車，我也不好意思和他們搶。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,一位上海出租司機(jī)如何晉身收入前三位？,我回答說，中午的時候，還有十幾分鐘就1點了。那個女孩子是中午溜出來買東西的，估計公司很近；那對男女是游客，沒拿什么東西，不會去很遠(yuǎn)；你是出去辦事的，拿著筆記本包，一看就是公務(wù)。而且這個時候出去，估計應(yīng)該不會近。那個男的就說，你說對了，去寶山。”,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,417,Making Dec

15、isions: The Rational Model,Rational Decision Making 理性決策 choices that are consistent and value-maximizing within specified constraints 管理者在具體的約束條件下作出一致的，價值最大化的選擇。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,418,Assumptions of Rationality 理性假設(shè),EXHIBIT 4.6,理性決策,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall

16、, Inc. All rights reserved.,419,1、中午吃飯時間，你來到食堂，你需要選擇幾樣菜來填飽肚子，請問你的決策屬于：,討論,a. 理性決策？ b.有限理性決策？,2、你來到一個陌生的小鎮(zhèn)，到了吃飯的時間，你需要選擇一個餐館進(jìn)餐，請問你的決策屬于：,a. 理性決策？ b.有限理性決策？,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,420,Making Decisions: The Rational Model,Bounded rationality 有限理性 Behavior that is ration

17、al within the parameters of a simplified model that captures the essential features of a problem 把問題的本質(zhì)抽象為簡單的模型，在簡化的模型參數(shù)下采取理性行動。 Satisfied 滿意 Making a “good enough” decision,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,421,Common Decision-making Errors,Escalation of commitment 承諾升級 An inc

18、reased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong 盡管有證據(jù)表明先期決策是錯誤的，仍然進(jìn)一步增加對它的承諾 refusal to admit that the initial decision may have been wrong,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,422,How Do Problems Differ?,Well-structured problems 結(jié)構(gòu)良好問題 Straig

19、htforward, familiar, easily defined problems Programmed decision 程序化決策 A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach Procedure, rule, policy,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,Programmed Decision-Making Aids,Procedure 程序 A series of steps that can be used to re

20、spond to a well-structured problem Rule 規(guī)則 An explicit （清楚的）statement that tells managers what they ought or ought not to do,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,424,Programmed Decision-Making Aids,Policy A general guide that establishes parameters for making decisions about recur

21、ring problems For example: The consumers are always right.,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,How Do Problems Differ?,Ill-structured problems 結(jié)構(gòu)不良好問題 New problems in which information is ambiguous or incomplete Nonprogrammed decisions 非程序化決策 Decisions that must be custom-made to

22、 solve unique and nonrecurring problems,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,426,Types of Problems, Types of Decisions, and Level in the Organization,EXHIBIT 4.8,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,427,管理中的困境,明尼蘇達(dá)采礦制造公司一位心懷不滿的員工，拿到公司新開發(fā)出的新式繃帶樣品后，將他寄給了競爭對手強(qiáng)生公司，并

23、提出只收取2萬美元的費用將幫助他們揭開這項新技術(shù)的奧秘。 假設(shè)你是強(qiáng)生公司接到該包裹的一位管理者，你知道這一技術(shù)將使你在2億美元容量的繃帶市場上所向無敵。 此時你打算怎么做？,討論,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,428,管理中的困境,1）將該樣品扔到一邊？ 2）送交你公司的研究部門作分析？ 3）將該員工的行為告知明尼蘇達(dá)公司？ 4）通知聯(lián)邦調(diào)查委員會？ 5）其他更為妥善的辦法？,討論,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,429,中美撞機(jī)事

24、件背景,二一年四月一日，美國一架軍用偵察機(jī)在海南島水域撞毀我國軍機(jī)，并未經(jīng)我允許進(jìn)入中國領(lǐng)空，降落在海南島陵水機(jī)場。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,430,美稱中國獲得美軍聲音識別技術(shù), 美國華盛頓時報十五日報導(dǎo)，美國間諜飛機(jī)自四月一日以來一直停留在海南島，中國政府派出一百多名技術(shù)人員到海南島研究美國的聲音識別技術(shù)。是美國最近裝修過的飛機(jī)，具有電子支持措施，特殊信號處理和應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)。盡管在飛機(jī)著陸之前，美國機(jī)組人員已經(jīng)銷毀大部份秘密。但中國仍然獲得大批秘密技術(shù)。 中國獲得這些技術(shù)之后，美國搜集中國政治和軍事目標(biāo)的信息將更加困難。中國可能將他們的電臺和電話設(shè)備上安裝過濾裝置。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,431,Group Decision Making,Advantages more accurate decision more complete information a