公眾成本理論與對(duì)外政策決策（PUBLICCOSTTHEORYANDFOREIGNPOLICYDECISIONMAKING）AUTHORINTRODUCTIONMALE,BORNIN1966,GUANGDONGUNIVERSITYOFFOREIGNSTUDIESPROFESSOR,DEPARTMENTOFFOREIGNAFFAIRSINGUANGDONGPROVINCEQIANBAISHIPROVINCIALENGINEERINGTRAININGOBJECTSNOWTHECENTERFOREASTASIANSTUDIES,HARVARDUNIVERSITYFEIZHENGQINGVISITINGPROFESSOR1989,1992ATTHEHUNANNORMALUNIVERSITYBYTHEENGLISHLANGUAGELITERATUREANDBACHELOROFLAWDEGREEFROMFUDANUNIVERSITYIN2001ANDADOCTORATEININTERNATIONALRELATIONSTHEMAINRESEARCHDIRECTIONTHEORYOFINTERNATIONALRELATIONS,SINOUSRELATIONS,THEAMERICANFOREIGNSTRATEGYANDTHEASIAPACIFICREGIONINRECENTYEARS,“WORLDECONOMICSANDPOLITICS“,“MODERNINTERNATIONALRELATIONS“,“INTERNATIONALSTUDIES“,“AMERICAN“,“EUROPEANRESEARCHSTUDY“,“WORLDHISTORY“ANDOTHERPUBLICATIONSPUBLISHEDMORETHAN40ACADEMICPAPERS,22OFWHICHWERETHENPCPRESS,“CHINESESOCIALSCIENCEDIGEST“,“XINHUADIGEST“REPRODUCEDORINCLUDEDHEHASPUBLISHED1BOOKS“CONTAININGTHEPLIGHTOFKENNEDYANDTHEJOHNSONADMINISTRATIONSCHINAPOLICY19611968“ZHONGSHANUNIVERSITYPRESS,2002ANDTRANSLATED“THETRAGEDYOFGREATPOWERPOLITICS“,“THEUNITEDSTATESANDTHEENEMYOFTHEUNITEDSTATESANDTHEFORMATIONOFOPPONENTOFAMERICANPOLITICS“,“CHANGESINFOREIGNPOLICYANDPOLITICS“BUSHSWAR“ANDOTHERWORKSINADDITION,INALLKINDSOFNEWSPAPERSANDPERIODICALSPUBLISHEDCOMMENTARYARTICLESTHECOSTOFTHEPUBLICTHEORYSOURCEOFDOMESTICPOLITICALTHEORYININTERNATIONALRELATIONS,ITHASTHREEBASICVIEWPOINTSFIRST,PUBLICOPINIONFORDECISIONMAKERSANDPOLITICALSTAKES,FOREIGNPOLICYCANPROMOTETHEDECISIONMAKERS,ANDCANMAKEDECISIONMAKERSPAYASIGNIFICANTDOMESTICPOLITICALCOSTSECOND,THEPUBLICCONCERNOFFOREIGNPOLICYDECISIONMAKINGLEVELCONSTRAINTSASSESSMENTOFTHEPUBLICCOSTTHIRDLY,THEASYMMETRYOFTHEPLIGHTOFTHERISKSANDBENEFITSOFDECISIONMAKERSINTHEUSEOFTHECOSTOFTHEPUBLICSEVERALDIPLOMATICCRISISDURINGTHETREATMENTOFTHESONOFBUSHRULINGASACASETOEXPLAINTHELOGICMECHANISMOFTHEPUBLICCOSTTHEORY,ANDPOINTEDOUTTHEIMPORTANTENLIGHTENMENTSIGNIFICANCEOFTHETHEORYTOCHINAFOREIGNPOLICYKEYWORDSPUBLICCOSTTHEORYOFFOREIGNPOLICYDECISIONBUSHGOVERNMENTSDIPLOMATICCRISISCLCNUMBERD80DOCUMENTCODEAARTICLENUMBER10054812200706000106THELASTCENTURYATTHEBEGINNINGOF90S,WITHTHEENDOFTHECOLDWAR,THEREHAVEBEENSOMENEWPROGRESSINTHESTUDYOFDIPLOMACY,ITSACADEMICSTATUSISALSOBEGINNINGTOBERECONSIDERED,GRADUALLYDEVELOPINGFROMAPOTENTIALSUBJECTTOTHEORTHODOXDISCIPLINEDIRECTION,SOMESCHOLARSTRYTOCOMBINETHEDOMESTICPOLITICALTHEORYANDINTERNATIONALRELATIONSINTHEMAINSTREAMSCHOOLTOESTABLISHADIPLOMATICTHEORY1ALSOHASASYSTEMATICRESEARCHSCHOLAR,SOMEOFTHESUBFIELDOFDOMESTICPOLITICALTHEORYFOREXAMPLE,SOMESCHOLARSBEGANTOPAYATTENTIONTOPUBLICOPINIONANDSYSTEMRELATEDFOREIGNPOLICY,ANDPUTFORWARDATHEORYFORTHEPUBLICCOSTTHEORYOFAUDIENCECOSTTHISPAPERTRIESTOCOMBINETHETYPICALCASEOFAMERICANFOREIGNSYSTEMINCRISISDECISIONMAKINGANALYSISOFOPERATIONMECHANISMOFTHETHEORY,ANDPOINTSOUTTHATSTRENGTHENINGTHEVALUEOFTHETHEORETICALRESEARCHONCHINASFOREIGNPOLICYTHEORIGINOFTHEPUBLICCOSTTHEORYANDTHEMAINPOINTSTHEPUBLICCOSTTHEORYISACCOMPANIEDBYTHEUPGROWTHOFDOMESTICPOLITICALTHEORYININTERNATIONALRELATIONSTHEORY,SINCETHEBEGINNINGOFTHELASTCENTURY,IN90SEIGHT,WESTERNSCHOLARSBEGANTOPAYATTENTIONTOTHEIMPACTOFDOMESTICVARIABLESSUCHASPOLITICS,ECONOMY,IDEOLOGY,ETHNICCHARACTERISTICS,PARTYPOLITICSANDTHESOCIALANDECONOMICSTRUCTUREOFTHENATIONALEXTERNALBEHAVIOR2SOMESCHOLARSPAYSPECIALATTENTIONTOTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHESEVARIABLESANDTHEDOMESTICANDFOREIGNPOLICY,ANDTHETYPEOFGOVERNMENTBUREAUCRACY,THEINTERACTION,THEELECTIONSYSTEMANDTHEPUBLICOPINION,THEPERSONALITYOFTHEDECISIONMAKERASMAJORCONSTRAINTSONDECISIONMAKERSINTHISCONTEXTTHEPUBLICCOSTTHEORYINTHISTOPICRESEARCHSCHOLARSAREMAINLYPHELANFEARON,BAUMBAUM,MESQUITAMESQUITA,SIEVERSENSIVERSONETC3ACCORDINGTOTHEDEFINITIONOFFAERUN,REFERSTOTHECOSTOFTHEPUBLIC,INTHEDIPLOMATICCRISIS,THEDECISIONMAKERSWESTERNCOUNTRIESGENERALLYREFERSTOTHEPRESIDENTTOFOREIGNACTORSOPENLYTHREATENEDBACKDOWNBUTSUFFEREDDOMESTICPOLITICALPENALTIESSUCHASLOSINGTHENEXTPRESIDENTIALELECTIONETCITINCLUDESTWOTYPESTHEFIRSTISTHATPOLICYMAKERSPUBLICLYISSUEDONACOUNTRYSTHREATTOTAKETHERISKOFDOMESTICPUBLICOPINIONTWOISANOPENTHREATFROMTHECRISISWARTOBACKTHEPEOPLEATHOMEMAYSUFFERPUNISHMENTTHETHEORYINCLUDESTHEFOLLOWINGPOINTS4FIRST,PUBLICOPINIONFORDECISIONMAKERSTOPROVIDEOPPORTUNITIES,MAKINGTHERISKINTHEELECTORALSYSTEMINTHECOUNTRY,THEPUBLICVOTEOFTENRESTRICTTHEDECISIONMAKINGPROCESS,DECISIONMAKERSTHEREFORE,DECISIONMAKERSAREVERYCONCERNEDABOUTTHEPUBLICREACTIONPUBLICOPINIONONTHEDECISIONMAKERSCANALSOHELPPREVENTONTHEONEHAND,DECISIONMAKERSOFTENUSEPUBLICOPINIONTOPROMOTETHECRISISINFOREIGNPOLICYONTHEOTHERHAND,THEPUBLICONCETHEIMPROPERUSEMAYLEADTOADVERSEPOLITICALCONSEQUENCESTHEREFORE,DECISIONMAKERSTENDTOASSESSPUBLICOPINIONTENDENCYPUBLICOPINIONISDIVIDEDINTOTWOTYPESOFSHORTTERMANDLONGTERM,POLICYMAKERSAREMORECONCERNEDABOUTTHEPUBLICLONGTERMIDEATHESHORTTERMPUBLICOPINIONOFTENUNSTABLE,ESPECIALLYINTHEEARLYSTAGEOFPUBLICCRISIS,POLICYMAKERSFOREIGNPOLICYSUPPORTISIMPERMANENT,ITSPOLITICALSIGNIFICANCEISLIMITED5ANDTHELONGTERMPUBLICOPINIONISRELATIVELYSTABLE,ANDTHEREFOREHAVEAGREATERPOLITICALSIGNIFICANCE,BECAUSEWITHTHEEXTENSIONOFTHEDIPLOMATICCRISISTIME,THEPUBLICCANUNDERSTAN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