1、論文中英文摘要作者姓名：孫得璋論文題目：建筑物單體震害預(yù)測新方法探討作者簡介：孫得璋，男， 1982年4月出生，2006年9月師從于中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所孫柏濤教授，于2008年8月獲碩士學(xué)位。中 文 摘 要工程結(jié)構(gòu)的震害預(yù)測是一門新興的科學(xué)，它要解決的問題是在全國或某一地區(qū)范圍內(nèi)，在地震危險性分析、地震區(qū)劃或小區(qū)劃、工程建設(shè)易損性分析的基礎(chǔ)上，對未來某一時段因地震可能造成的人員傷亡和建（構(gòu)）筑物、工程設(shè)施破壞等經(jīng)濟(jì)、人員傷亡損失及其分布的定量估計。工程結(jié)構(gòu)的震害預(yù)測是制定地震減災(zāi)規(guī)劃、地震應(yīng)急方案和我國實現(xiàn)防震減災(zāi)工作目標(biāo)的一項基礎(chǔ)性工作和重要依據(jù)。本文的研究內(nèi)容僅是工程結(jié)構(gòu)震害預(yù)測的一部

2、分，主要是基于以往不同結(jié)構(gòu)單體震害預(yù)測工作的基礎(chǔ)上探討一種較為簡便的單體結(jié)構(gòu)的震害預(yù)測方法。我國現(xiàn)在已有的建筑物單體震害預(yù)測方法大致有歷史震害統(tǒng)計、專家評估、半經(jīng)驗半理論、模糊類比、結(jié)構(gòu)計算等等，但很多單體計算方法較為繁瑣，實現(xiàn)起來工作量大。本文在前人工作的基礎(chǔ)上，做了以下主要工作：1 總結(jié)了建筑結(jié)構(gòu)由于地震發(fā)生破壞的原因，篩選出影響震害的主要因素。2 簡單介紹了模糊評判方法及在地震工程中的運用。3 整理了工作組收集的全國范圍內(nèi)多數(shù)做過震害預(yù)測城市的相關(guān)震害預(yù)測資料，建立了不同結(jié)構(gòu)類型的單體結(jié)構(gòu)震害預(yù)測區(qū)域數(shù)據(jù)庫。4 定義了震害影響因子（包括結(jié)構(gòu)類型、建造年代、結(jié)構(gòu)的層數(shù)、場地類型等），介紹了

3、震害影響因子對結(jié)構(gòu)的作用以及本文中對震害影響因子的計算方法。5 參照模糊評判模型，本文建立了多因子分析單體結(jié)構(gòu)震害的方法，其主要優(yōu)點在于能以較為簡單、可行的方式得到單體結(jié)構(gòu)的震害指數(shù)，而且與以往單體結(jié)構(gòu)計算結(jié)果比較，可靠度相對較高。6 介紹了樣本數(shù)據(jù)庫查詢系統(tǒng)的樣本組成及功能模塊。7 本文在第四章中計算了多層砌體結(jié)構(gòu)和多層鋼筋混凝土框架結(jié)構(gòu)的震害影響因子，并各自比較了不同震害影響因子對結(jié)構(gòu)的抗震性能的影響。關(guān)鍵詞：單體結(jié)構(gòu)；震害預(yù)測；震害影響因子；平均震害指數(shù)；區(qū)域數(shù)據(jù)庫New method of seismic damage prediction of Single BuildingSun

4、Dezhang ABSTRACTSeismic damage prediction of engineering structures is a new developing subject, and the problems that it will solve is quantitative estimation of the losses and distribution of economic, such as the destruction of buildings and project facilities, and casualties, which is probably c

5、aused by the earthquake in the future, in the nationwide or within one area, based on the hazard analysis of earthquake, seismic zoning, vulnerability analysis of structure. Seismic damage prediction of engineering structures is a basic work and important basis of making earthquake disaster reductio

6、n plan, earthquake emergency scheme and the goal of Earthquake Preparedness and Disaster Reduction. The content studied in this paper, which is based on seismic damage predictions of different Single Buildings, is just a part of seismic damage prediction of engineering structures. And a relative con

7、venient method of seismic damage prediction of Single Building is discussed in this paper.In China, there have been some methodologies on seismic damage prediction of single building such as historical seismic damage statistics, specialist evaluation, semi-experience and semi-theory, fuzzy analogy,

8、structural theory etc, while many of which are relatively tedious and need a heavy workload. Based on previous work, the main work is as follows:1 The reasons that structures destroyed in the earthquake are summarized and the main impact factors of seismic damage of structure is selected.2 The theor

9、y of fuzzy evaluation and its application in the earthquake is recommended.3 The relevant materials of seismic damage prediction of the most cities that are collected by the group in the country are compiled, and then the regional database of seismic damage prediction of different structures is set

10、up.4 The seismic damage impact factors (including Structure type, Built year, Story number, Site type etc) are defined. In addition, the influence that impact factor plays and its calculation method is also introduced in the paper. 5 According to fuzzy evaluation model, the method of seismic damage

11、of single building of multi-factor analysis is established, and the main advantage is capable of gaining seismic damage of single building relatively simply and feasibly. And the reliability of the results that are compared with previous results of single building is relative high.6 The sample compositions and function modules of database query system are introduced in the paper.7 The seismic damage impact factors of multistory masonry structure and multistory reinforced concrete frame structure are calculated in the chapter four and the influence that impa