1、RecentDevelopmentintheKoreanEconomyDecember2000ResearchDepartmentContents1. IndustrialPerformance2. DomesticDemand3. EmploymentandWages4. Externaltransactions5. Prices1.IndustrialPerformance(ManufacturingSector)TheproductiongrowthinthemanufacturingsectordeclinedfurtherinOctober.Theproductiongrowthin

2、automobileswasexpandedthankstofavorableexports,but,duetoslowingoverseasdemands,thatinsemiconductorsscaleddown.Consequently,itsrateofincreasedroppedto11.6%fromthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.Averageoperationratioofthemanufacturingsectorstoodat76.4%withfallingfortwoconsecutivemonths.(Comparedwiththesam

3、eperiodofthepreviousyear,%)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct3rdQJan-OctChangeinproduction21.034.219.825.415.611.620.119.8(S.A.percentchangecomparedwiththepreviousperiod,%)3.9-4.4-0.68.4-Averageoperationratio1)79.478.581.182.078.176.480.479.4Note:1)SeasonallyadjustedoperationratioindexxBaseo

4、perationratio(Averageoperationratioof81.0%in1995)Source:NationalStatisticsOfficeCurrentIndustrialActivitiesInshipment,theshipmentfordomesticuseshowedslowinggrowthfollowingthepreviousmonthandtheshipmentforexportswasalsoslowingsharply.TrendsofShipmentintheManufacturingSector(Comparedwiththesameperiodo

5、fthepreviousyear,%)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2ndQ.3rdQJan-'OctChangesintheShipment21.835.519.525.420.119.5(S.A.percentchangecomparedwiththepreviousmonth,%)4.0-4.1-3.2-0.28.6-Domesticuse(Allindustries)16.929.710.614.610.314.8Exportuse(Allindustries)27.241.531.

6、239.627.212.622.132.525.4Inventoriesinthemanufacturingsectorincreased5.2%fromthepreviousmonthcenteringonsemiconductors(+18.6%)andchemicals(+9.0%).Theinventory-to-shipmentindex(inventoriesindex/shipmentindex)increasedto80.6,arecordhighsinceMay1999.(Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%)1999200

7、0SeptOctJulyAugSeptOctChangeininventories(Comparedwiththesamemonthofthepreviousyear,%)-8.3-4.214.914.214.918.9(S.A.percentchangecomparedwiththepreviousmonth,%)1Inventory-to-shipmentratioindex)74.774.172.269.774.280.6Note:1)(Inventoriesindex/Shipmentindex)xiqq,basedontheseasonallyad

8、justedseriesSource:NationalStatisticsOfficeCurrentIndustrialActivities(Non-manufacturingSector)?Inelectricityandgasindustry,asproductionactivitieshavebecomelackluster,salesofelectricitytothemanufacturingsectormaintainedalowgrowthrateandthehouseholddeclinedsharply.Inwholesale&retailandfood&lo

9、dgingindustry,increaserateofthewholesale&retailsalescontinuedtodropandthegrowthrateofthenumberofforeignvisitorsshoweddownconsiderably.Intransport,storageandcommunication,thenumberofmobilesubscribersincreasedandthegrowthrateoftransportationvolumeatroadsandharborswasslightlyhigher,whileairlines

10、9;shareinthetransportationvolumegreatlydecreased.TrendsofPrincipalProductionIndicatorsinNon-manufacturingsector(Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2ndQ.3rdQJanPctElectricityandgasproductionindex1)9.519.49.011.910.113.0(S.A.percentchangecomparedwi

11、ththepreviousperiod,%)--4.13.4-2.72.4-Salesofelectricpower10.814.812.013.05.96.711.610.312.1(Manufacturing)9.86.410.6(Servicesector)14.713.422.619.412.113.320.317.920.3(Householduse)Citywatersupply-0.50.01.2-1.5-2.9-2.52.6-1.0-0.1Servicesecto

12、r2).9.38.6Wholesaleandretailsalesindexl)14.66.14.912.47.610.7(S.A.percentchangecomparedwiththepreviousmonth0.00.60.6-1.6--Hotels&restaurants2).10.110.410.68.510.4Numberofincomingforeigners6.316.96.917.614.414.7DomesticshipmentofSoju18.433.1-9.5-11.4-19.7-17

13、.2-7.9-13.9-12.7Domesticshipmentofbeer6.027.99.419.35.9-8.27.711.69.8Domesticshipmentofwhiskey79.4148.011.5-5.627.69.8Transport,storage&communication2).12.510.97.513.910.3Vehiclesusinghighway8.86.616.015.413.117.515.514.915.4Aircargotransport15.617.017.915.413.76.415.015.613.9Numbero

14、fcontainershandledinBusanHarbor16.712.59.0Numberofregisteredvehicles4)Mobilephonesubscribers(thousand)4)21,56022,32026,08925,83226,04726,47926,57026,04726,479Increaserateofmobilephonesubscribers4)77.220.818.647.620.818.6Notes:1)NationalStatist

15、icsOfficeCurrentIndustrialActivities2) NationalStatisticsOfficeCurrentindustrialactivitiesinservicesector3)Basedonimport-exportcargo4) Sourcesasoftheperiod-end:KoreaElectricPower,KoreaWaterResourceCorp.,KoreaNationalTourismOrganization,KoreaHighwayCorp.,KoreaAirportsAuthority,PusanRegionalMaritimeAf

16、fairs&FisheriesOffice,MinistryofConstructionandTransportation,MinistryofInformationandCommunication2. DomesticDemand(Consumption)ThegrowthrateofconsumptionwasremarkablyshrunkinOctober.Theincreaseratesofdurableandsemi-durablegoodssuchasautomobiles,mobilephones,andshoesfellsharply.(Comparedwiththe

17、sameperiodofthepreviousyear,%)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2ndQ.3rdQJan-OctHouseholdconsumption(Nationalaccourts)-9.15.8-Consumergoodssalesindex19.019.915.317.112.614.5-Durables33.855.837.122.917.35.536.125.931.7-Semi-durables18.58.81.9-Non-durables8.97.8

18、9.9Source:NationalStatisticsOfficeCurrentIndustrialActivities,TheBankofKoreaNationalAccounts(Investment)Facilitiesinvestmentcontinuedtoslow.一Therateofincreaseoffacilitiesinvestmentestimates,thebroadestoneamongcoincidentindicators,wasasmuchasthatofthepreviousmonth,butdomesticshipmentsofmach

19、ineryandimportsofmachineryfordomesticusebecamemoredull.Theinvestmentininformationandtechnologysectorsuchascomputerandcommunicationsequipmentcontinuedtoshowafavorabletrend,butthatintransportationequipmentwaspersistentlydroveintoaslump.一Thegrowthrateofdomesticmachineryordersreceived,aleadingindicator,

20、decreasedsharplycenteringaroundindustrialmachineryandtransportvehicles.(Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2ndQ.3rdQJanPctFacilitiesInvestment(NationalAccounts)一一-41.332.0-FacilitiesInvestmentestimates62.642.928.630.538.118.934.229.039.1DomesticShipmentofMa

21、chineryl)52.329.030.536.646.133.042.938.447.3ImportofMachineryforDomesticUse2)41.758.038.561.379.231.660.155.863.4DomesticMachineryOrdersReceived2)29.110.6-5.826.817.114.3Notes:1)BasedonConstantIndexin19952)BasedonNominalAmountsSource:NationalStatisticsOfficeCurrentIndustrialActivities,The

22、BankofKoreaNationalAccountsInvestmentinthebuildingconstructionwasstilldepressed.一Inbuildingconstruction,thevalueofalreadyconstructedbuildingsincreasedslightlybutpermittedareaauthorizedforbuildingconstructionandconstructionordersreceived,leadingindicators,alldecreased.一Incivilengineering,valueofworks

23、inthecivilengineeringmaintaineditsdecreasingtrend,anditsordersreceived,aleadingindicator,alsoturnedlower.(Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2ndQ.3rdQJanPctConstructionInvestment(NationalAccounts)-4.7-3.5-ValueofConstructionWork1)-2.90.8-0.3-2.6-6.1-0.7-2.4

24、-3.1-3.4ConstructionOrdersReceived1)36.533.912.745.2-18.4-16.820.48.523.6DomesticShipmentofIntermediateGoodsforCon3tftjctior124.08.0<BuildingConstruction>ValueofBuildingConstructionWork1)-0.8-0.50.9AreasWinningApprovalforConstruction81.6277.732.655.016.0-7.5

25、35.633.438.8-Dwelling111.5358.827.364.7-5.2-19.416.425.523.1-Factoryuse204.5353.2-2.3-10.975.5-17.883.020.572.5-Commercialuse30.9219.687.786.134.631.291.169.280.1BuildingConstructionOrdersReceived1)124.3199.226.746.0-53.3-20.143.0-5.332.0<CivilEngineeringValueofCivilEngineeringWork1)1.00.4-3.5-7.

26、6-12.1-6.2-8.3-7.9-9.3CivilEngineeringOrdersReceived1)-36.2-49.3-10.344.185.4-7.2-16.539.39.0Note:1)BasedonNominalAmountsSource:NationalStatisticsOfficeCurrentIndustrialActivities,TheBankofKoreaNationalAccounts3. EmploymentandWages(Employment)?TheemploymentsituationwasrecoveredinOctober.Asthenumbero

27、ftemporaryanddayworkersinwholesale&retailsectorandhotels&restaurants(+58,000persons),andtheconstructionsector(+35,000persons)sharplyincreasedthankstoseasonalfactors,theunemploymentratewas0.2%pdownto3.4%Theseasonallyadjustedrateofunemploymentrecorded3.9%,downslightlyfromthepreviousmonth.(%)19

28、9920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2ndQ3rdQJanOctEconomicParticipationRate61.661.861.761.061.461.661.361.360.8NumberoftheEmployed(Thousand)21,00021,15521,50121,25321,43221,57321,26821,39521,050GrowthrateoftheEmployed1)-Manufacturing8.89.03.07.55.06.9-Construction3.54.

29、6.3-Wholesale&retail/Hotels&restaurantsNumberoftheUnemployed(Thousand)1,6091,021804818804760840809898UnemploymentRate(S.A.)(5.3)(5.1)(3.7)(4.1)(4.0)(3.9)(3.9)(3.9)(4.1)Employment，2、Structure)-Non-wage38.338.737.738.938

30、.638.337.938.437.7-Regular28.928.929.329.329.529.529.329.429.6-Temporary&Day32.732.333.031.731.932.232.832.232.7Lessthan36hours9.09.39.7Notes:1)Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear2)Compositionratiotototalnumberoftheemployed(%)Source:NationalStatisticsOfficeEmploymentTre

31、nd(Wages)Wages(allindustries)continuedtorise.SlowdowninrisingtrendduringSeptemberwasmainlyattributabletoareductionofspecialcashpaymentsduetoearlypaymentofChusokbonusinAugust.TrendsinNominalWages(Comparedtothesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%)199920003rdQ4thQ.Year1stQ.2ndQ.3rdQAugSeptAugSeptAugSeptWages(

32、allindustries)15.611.422.88.78.815.03.78.8Regularpayments6.69.6Overtimepayments32.432.930.732.530.114.713.217.319.916.818.3Specialcashpayments34.828.317.814.63.530.8-10.43.54. ExternalTransactionsExportsgrowth(oncustoms-clearancebasis)duringNovember

33、weregreatlyscaleddownfollowingthepreviousmonth.一AffectedbypersistentfallinD-RAMpriceandthebankruptcyofDaewooMotor,exportsweredowntorecord$15.1billion.Aswell,therateofincreaseinexportsdippedto6.5%year-on-yearplusthereflectiveeffectfollowingthesharpincreasesinceOctoberlastyear.Exports1)bySectorandDest

34、ination(Unit:hundredmillionU.S.dollars)19992000Ratio2)Year2ndQ.3rdQ.4thQ.1stQ.2ndQ.3rdQ.OctNovSeptOctNovExports<100>1,436.9357.4350.9134.5142.0426.0393.2434.2444.2151.6154.2155.8(8.6)(2.5)(15.1)(26.5)(21.7)(22.7)(30.0)(21.5)(26.6)(26.7)r(i4.7)(15.8)(Semiconductors)3)<13.1>(10.8)(12.3)(13

35、.4)(17.6)(6.2)(5.4)(0.3)(19.1)(29.4)(30.8)(9.5)(Information&communicationsquipment)<11.7>(87.6)(61.2)(103.2)(158.9)(133.5)(147.5)(125.1)(87.5)(88.6)(85.0)(36.7)(Passengercars)<6.6>(15.3)(16.5)(49.3)(-4.8)(4.8)(-1.6)(51.4)(-6.5)(16.9)(35.9)(42.7)(Metalgoods)<7.2>(-7.3)(-17.4)(-1

36、.3)(3.7)(10.6)(9.1)(20.4)(17.1)(5.8)(11.1)(4.6)(Chemicalproducts)<6.5>(4.3)(-8.0)(15.5)(27.1)(21.7)(24.1)(39.3)(48.1)(25.3)(19.8)(10.1)(Textiles)<5.6>(1.9)(-4.0)(3.8)(30.5)(30.9)(28.0)(18.5)(12.5)(4.8)(4.3)(-3.3)(Clothing)<3.4>(4.6)(-1.7)(1.5)(20.1)(8.6)(11.3)(9.9)(6.9)(2.6)(0.5)(-

37、9.2)AdvancedCountries<50.7>727.9180.8174.070.076.4222.2198.6217.4228.480.281.3(14.2)(11.7)(19.2)(28.1)(33.1)(30.0)(31.6)(20.3)(31.3)(31.5)(16.1)(USA)<20.5>(29.2)(26.0)(28.8)(38.0)(48.9)(47.3)(39.1)(24.7)(35.9)(39.0)(27.5)(Japan)<11.0>(29.6)(15.5)(39.3)(51.8)(60.6)(56.9)(49.9)(38.6)

38、(37.8)(37.6)(6.8)(EU)<14.1>(11.4)(14.2)(10.8)(13.7)(33.7)(17.6)(25.5)(16.9)(19.6)(12.3)(7.5)DevelopingCountries<49.3>708.9176.6176.964.565.6203.8194.6216.7215.871.472.9(3.4)(-5.5)(11.3)(24.8)(10.6)(15.6)(28.3)(22.7)(22.0)(21.6)(13.1)(ASEAN)<12.3>(15.5)(7.1)(14.5)(39.1)(16.3)(24.5)(

39、20.4)(20.3)(23.9)(22.3)(-0.2)(China)<9.5>(14.6)(3.0)(28.5)(38.1)(33.6)(30.7)(39.5)(37.4)(44.7)(40.3)(27.6)(Taiwan)<4.4>(23.5)(25.3)(33.0)(28.9)(41.7)(30.5)(43.3)(43.7)(27.7)(25.8)(12.6)Notes:1)Customs-clearancebasis,figuresinparenthesesarethepercentchangecomparedwiththesameperiodofthepre

40、viousyear2)Basedon19993)D-RAMmoduleswhichwerepreviouslyclassifiedassemiconductorshavebeencategorizedasinformationandcommunicationsequipment(computerperipherals)sinceJuly1999.?DuringNovember,imports(oncustoms-clearancebasis)continuedtogrow.Becauseofariseininternationalcrudeoilprices,importsamountedto

41、$14.2billion,slightlyupfromthepreviousmonth.Therateofincreaseinimportsrecordedto21%comparedwiththesameperiodofoneyearearlier.Importsofcrudeoilincreasedby44%,andthoseofotherproductsgrewby17%.ImportsbyItemandUse1)1999(Unit:hundredmillionU.S.dollar)2000Ratio2)Year2Q.3Q.4Q.1Q.2Q.3Q.OctNovSepOctNovImport

42、s<100.0>1,197.5287.6297.6113.6117.3356.7388.3397.9403.8132.8141.0141.9(28.4)(22.2)(38.7)(48.5)(40.9)(44.8)(51.9)(38.4)(35.7)(31.2)(24.1)(21.0)CrudeOil<12.3>(31.5)(14.6)(55.3)(66.2)(94.1)(87.6)(134.3)(81.2)(68.1)(52.8)(46.2)(43.8)3)OtherthanOil<87.7>(27.9)(23.2)(36.6)(45.9)(34.1)(39

43、.2)(42.5)(33.2)(31.1)(27.6)(20.4)(16.8)3)Rawmaterials<47.8>572.5133.8144.356.158.9175.7195.2190.1193.864.469.4(25.6)(17.5)(38.7)(53.7)(54.4)(54.0)(64.5)(42.1)(34.3)(31.6)(23.7)Capitalgoods<40.5>484.9114.3121.646.347.0145.8157.3166.6168.755.256.7(38.4)(29.7)(51.5)(53.1)(49.5)(52.0)(52.6)(

44、45.7)(38.8)(32.4)(22.5)(Information&<5.8>(101.9)(92.5)(120.5)(126.1)(138.5)(128.4)(134.8)(111.2)(79.3)(66.4)(53.2)communicationsequipment)(Semi-conductors)<13.4>(31.2)(24.2)(41.3)(28.2)(27.9)(25.8)(21.2)(25.0)(25.3)(29.5)(30.3)Consumergoods<11.7>140.139.531.711.111.435.135.641.

45、141.313.214.8(10.7)(18.2)(4.5)(14.5)(-16.8)(-2.9)(5.2)(4.2)(30.2)(24.4)(33.2)<Excludinggold><8.9>(30.8)(30.5)(40.4)(54.3)(55.6)(46.7)(42.9)(26.8)(30.3)(24.7)(33.6)Fordomesticuse<53.3>637.8155.5160.159.861.8189.7215.2225.6219.271.173.8.(32.6)(30.1)(51.9)(64.1)(50.3)(55.3)(62.4)(45.1

46、)(36.9)(29.0)(23.3)Forexports<46.7>559.8132.1137.553.755.5166.9173.0172.2184.561.867.2(23.8)(14.0)(25.9)(34.3)(31.7)(34.6)(40.4)(30.4)(34.2)(33.8)(25.0)Notes:1)Customs-clearancebasis,figuresinparenthesesarethepercentchangecomparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear2)Basedon19993)EstimatedvalueT

47、hetradesurplusinNovemberwasreducedto$0.9billionfrom$1.3billion(TradebalanceduringJanuaryNovemberperiodregisteredasurplusof$10.4billion).Meanwhile,thecurrentaccountsurplusinOctoberwasshrunkto$1.2billionfrom$1.7billion(CurrentAccountduringJanuaryOctoberperiodregisteredasurplusof$8.7billion).Thereducti

48、onofcurrentaccountsurplusresultedfromtheshrinkageofthegoodsaccountsurplussparkedbyariseinimportingcrudeoilpricesdespitethereductionofdeficitintheincomeaccountduetoanincreaseininterestincome.CurrentAccountTrends(Unit:hundredmillionU.S.dollars)19992000Year1stQ.2ndQ.3rdQ.4thQ.1stQ2ndQ.3rdQOctSepOctNovC

49、urrentAccount244.860.661.566.020.356.813.726.534.517.411.7GoodsAccount283.767.779.069.226.267.825.046.754.623.815.3Tradebalance239.346.969.853.320.969.45.036.340.418.813.39.3Exports(customs-clea什網(wǎng)6.9302.5357.4350.9134.5426.0393.2434.2444.2151.6154.2151.2Imports(Customs-cleare<)197.5255.7287.6297.

50、6113.6356.7388.3397.9403.8132.8141.0141.9ServicesAccount-6.5-1.2-4.10.5-0.5-1.8-10.8-9.8-15.1-2.9-3.1IncomeAccount-51.6-11.5-17.8-9.3-7.2-12.9-3.2-10.9-4.0-3.6-0.9Currenttransfers2.70.5-1.00.00.45. Prices(ConsumerPrices)?Consumerpricesfell0.4%comparedwiththepreviousmonth(2.6%increaseincomparisonwiththesamemonthofthepreviousyear).Thisfallinconsumerpriceswaslargelyattributabletoadeclineinagricultural,livestockandmarineproductspricesduetotheseasonaloversupplyinvegetablesandaslideinindustrialproductspricesbecauseofbargainsalesofsomeitemsandfallingoilprices,althought