1、1.31.1. 31.2. 41.2.1.41.2.2.72.“+”.82.1. 82.2.API. 122.3. 142.4.“”. 173.193.1. 203.2. 213.3./. 233.4.CMO/CDMO 234.254.1. 254.2. 294.3. 334.4. 385.41/1.1.1.ICHActive Pharmaceutical Ingredient API11/CNKI31.2.1.2.1.1/5560%80%E2008E2016 201710E6E:50%:/kgWind70060050040030020010007006005004003002001000Wi

2、ndWind9K3:MSB96%:/kg10A(50IU/g):/kg18016014012010080604020016001400120010008006004002000WindWindA 2017260/kg 20196-AP6-APA /kg6-APA 145/kg195116-APA/kg12/kgWindWind1.2.2.1234480160085 62035X4.28133055058.455142.+2.1.201875.931.1%2030852050978.87%2000652018656.87%201810.92%20006.81%201620506515.7 16.

3、7%201868.6%6541.7%6584145.3%63.2%38%52.2%19.5%52.8%17651865An Aging World 2015 International Population Reports120472.9%IMS20192018 1628 5.0%713IMS Evaluate Pharma 20202024 159020%5330 22Evaluate PharmaCNKIAPI2.2.APIAPI DMFAPI80%70%2016242000-2016DMF252000-2016APIDMF46%DMF 12Chemical Weekly 30%CMO1/

4、2 1/34060% 15%370%API2017DMF1474API 68826700000600000500000400000300000200000100000Wind040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%27CMO40%-60%Chemical Weekly28API11931474688/2930Clarivate3120162.3.32016/112016/122016-2020:1.4142017/1010002018/12018/1 201862018/4202015%VOCs2019/32019/620193“”20192019579 94262019/3502

5、020202019200010002019/42019/4222019/42019/9201920195799201550652016417620172018 282.318.8% 2019262.17.2%322016 3360005000400030002000100002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201814001200100080060040020002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201770%60%50%

6、40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%WindWind34201035/kg4003503002502001501005002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201940%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%WindWind36/kgWind2.4.2016API32016FDA 52016.3.52017.8.2520171002892017.12.222019.10.15DMF 62016.8.1020161342017.05.112017522017.11.302019.07.162019 562019.11.292

7、019103 2019 1212019121GMP GSPGMP GSP GMP GSP2019121MAH7MAH2016.52017.82019.122019MAHMAHMAH2019122953%51%GY- YD2019-2 20201173282018.11.142018.11.154+7 114+7314+72018.12.172019.9.1252019.9.302019.12.29GY-YD2019-22018201863.3%2020.1.21102666.5%3738201820182018+/3.+1/2/CMO/CDMO3.1.404193.2.GMP201947.3%

8、28.1%13.4%2012101DMFANDADMFANDADMFFDA FDAFDAEIR letterFDADMF23 cGMP EDQM/EMAEMA EDMFEDQMCEPEDMF CEP CEP PMDAMFPMDAMFMF MFMFGMP 442019452017 /3.3.40%70%“+”“+”46API3.4.CMO/CDMO 201011.88201821.8201010.1%20181.9%847482512%2010%8%156%104%52%0201020112012201320142016201720180%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201

9、5 2016 2017 2018 201913454 201778%CMO/CDMO268CMO/CDM2023O2018CMO/CDMOCMO/CDMO1224CMO/CDMO 5192023 2018CMO/CDMO8549 201750CMO/CDMOFrost &Sullivan51CMO/CDMO52CMO/CDMO50%Syneos44%41%29%25%7%4%5%5%5%4%5%6%6%7%3%4%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Informa2011 2016Frost &SullivanAPIAPICMO/CDMO4.-4.1.-2015201934

10、.2%5354WindWind5556167.0146.0125.01084.063.042.021.0020162017201820190.02016201720182019WindWind100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2016201720182019Wind-20132018CAGR10.3%9.0%585916014012010080604020020132014201520162017201825%20%15%10%5%0%12010080604020020132014201520162017201825%20%15%10%5%0%201720182

11、002000616900260050040030020010001999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018CNKI4.23201720183.5201928:1202010.6 616 116161 105,38295,000261615,00011,415 120,382106,4156166161.5 12020 22020 34-AA 4/8:12022510%62018A2019A2020E2021E2022E29080332603

12、9250417404469814.37%18.01%6.34%7.09%38.33%54.76%52.90%53.73%53.08%4649050800661306862571106.39.27%30.18%3.77%3.62%50.94%56.11%57.92%58.75%58.31%241302825335679417654860317.09%26.28%17.06%16.37%16.00%20.00%23.00%25.00%27.00%166002000022381267383810920.48%11.91%19.47%42.53%28.00%30.00%30.00%35.00%33.3

13、0%11630013231316344017886820251613.77%23.53%9.44%13.22%37.27%44.11%45.27%46.15%44.93%Wind2020-202216.3/17.9/20.34.05/4.86/5.34132018A2019A2020E2021E2022E1,1631,3541,6341,7892,025%21.42%16.38%20.66%9.50%13.21%195306405486534%9.67%57.06%32.54%19.92%9.82%0.420.660.881.061.1620.9516.8621.0917.5916.023.6

14、53.464.123.342.76ROE17.45%20.53%19.54%18.98%17.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%225273460460460WindGMP201931294.2.+1242009 11.26%16.42%10950%6162201765%220122014 WindWind6364WindWind6202065Wind14 t/a1 140240.573 5.464 24.745 2.56 157 108 509 910 211 1012 0.513 1814 0.55150.216 1.2417 0.518 401910020 0.22

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16、%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%14000120001000080006000400020000201320142015201620172018201945%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%70712.52.01.51.00.50.0201320142015201620172018201940%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2013201420152016201720182019WindWind1232020 42020Newchem20211552019A2020E2021

17、E2022E16.7017.7020.3623.414.57%6.00%15.00%15.00%49.28%48.00%49.00%49.00%8.478.739.4510.23-1.05%3.10%8.21%8.26%72.14%68.96%68.26%67.89%5.606.387.528.581.63%13.93%17.90%14.10%88.75%88.82%88.84%90.00%6.196.427.279.791.81%3.72%13.28%34.57%49.81%62.77%73.55%80.67%37.0939.2444.6052.012.40%5.78%13.68%16.61

18、%60.32%61.72%63.80%65.44%Wind4.94/6.33/8.032020-2022162018A2019A2020E2021E2022E3,6223,7093,9244,4605,201%26.97%2.40%5.81%13.66%16.61%301410494633803%45.85%36.17%20.48%27.94%26.96%0.330.450.540.690.8818.6422.0428.7822.5017.722.133.074.143.502.92ROE11.45%13.95%14.39%15.55%16.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0

19、0%916916916916916WindNewchem4.3./CEPAPIDMF20122019CAGR12.5%2018/2019 CAGR=9.1%CAGR24.8%CAGR=16.7%7273WindWind7475146.0125.0104.0863.042.021.00201220132014201520162017201820190.020122013201420152016201720182019WindWind1/71/3API 767716025%33.6%37.6%28.8%140120100806020%15%10%405%2000%20132014201520162

20、0172018Newport Premium78API201779CT120001000080006000400020000120010008006004002000/250002000015000100005000020132014201520162017201820%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Newport Premium80120%100%80%60%40%20%0%20142015201620172018Evaluate Pharma17XGEGE1999 GE InterpharmaImaxGEGE2011 GEGE Bracco2001 Bracco San

21、ochemiaBracco Sanochemia AgfaBracco Tyco2002 TycoTycohexal AGTyco Bayer2005 Bayer/Bayer Bayer2016 BayerBayerMarotrastBayer Bayer2011 BayerAgfa Jacobsen Bowmed IbisqusBayerGuerbet2018GuerbetGuerbetGuerbetBraccoBraccoBraccoBayerBayerBayerBayerBracco2012BraccoBraccoBraccoGE2011GEGEGEFDA EMA NM PAIPOXIP

22、OX75.6%20191228203513305052019116.72 2020.38182IPO12108642020122013201420152016201720182019/70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%3.02.52.01.51.00.50.02016201720182019X X100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%WindWind186.7211500150701320023005196491750031958993800041200118495000542503500620000200007981167200201295%/5135

23、0%83843530%19.7%6.3%49.7%8.5%15.8%3025%2520%2015%1510%1055%00%201420152016201720182019PDBPDB1IPO20202020-202230%280%100%API3Q345/1920192020E2021E2022E(4507155968687318313924%23%21%2101624233320103484815%32%9%3235742500538566596031%27%22%1350015050167701892011%11%13%API11383513624916520919191120%21%1

24、6% 26301324063031144284403%376%129% 11646514948922824033619528%53%47% 44%45%45%45%80188500900090006%6%0% 29%30%30%31%130885166180247999357482 47%27%49%44%2020202216.62/24.80/35.752.27/3.62/5.52202018A2019A2020E2021E2022E8901,3091,6622,4803,575%25.25%46.98%26.97%49.22%44.16%94170227363553%12.70%81.83

25、%33.48%59.79%52.11%0.400.720.971.552.3566.1758.6262.9139.3725.886.9610.0311.078.646.48ROE10.51%17.11%17.59%21.94%25.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%120168235235235Wind4.4.APICDMOFDF201210.97%22.05%8586WindWind87888025201220132014201520162017201820192012201320142015201620172018201970602050154010302051000-10-5Wind2019/CDMO7.22CDMO Wind2019CDMO2.69 CDMOCMO/CDMO 122019CDMO+CDMOAPI/2019925559.54 1436.9 0.25g/ANDA20199FDA300mgANDA202