1、08.2020LONDON / GREAT BRITAINCharging Ahead 2:Location, Location, LocationWHERE AND HOW WILL ELECTRIC VEHICLES BE CHARGED?MANAGEMENT SUMMARYIn 1911, coincidentally the same year that a Baker Electric Roadster became the first production vehicle to drive 200 miles (albeit slowly) on a single charge,

2、Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter wrote the worlds most thoughtful book on innovation. It describes the two phases of young industries: first a period of product innovation in which competing solutions proliferate, then, after the emergence of an evolutionary winner, a period of process innovatio

3、n in which the most efficient producers win through. To our minds, this seminal work has not been bettered in the intervening century and it illustrates perfectly the development of todays market for EV charging systems (EVCS).Through more than five hundred strategy projects related to EVs over the

4、past decade, RB has developed a clear view that electric vehicles are going to win. They are going to win, because, in comparison to their ICE cousins, they are simpler, better to drive, quieter, easier to automate, overwhelmingly less polluting and, quite soon, cheaper. In winning, the 2020s will s

5、ee a wave of creative destruction crash over petrol stations, and a more diffuse EVCS market emerge channelling GBP 6 billion of annual spend in the UK alone. It is this EV charging network, and not EVs themselves, which are the topic of this paper.At this stage, the nature of this future market is

6、far from clear; todays product innovation phase is throwing up all sorts of EV charging solutions and business models. Technically, there are wired and wireless solutions, fast and slow, public and private, of various formats. Almost as many business models are emerging to support these solutions, f

7、ragmented further by the regulatory and demographic characteristics of different countries, and of their various use cases.This paper explores the nature of the future EVCS market, how it will segment, why “l(fā)ocation” is a key consideration, and importantly, what externalities EVCS operators will see

8、k to harness. Finally, more for fun than out of any great expectation of being exactly right, we will predict the evolutionary winners of the present product innovation phase.Roland Berger2 Location, Location, LocationCover photo 100pk/iStockFAST FACTS & CONTENTSThere are 5broad location typesfor ch

9、argersof EV charging is expected to occur at homeRoland Berger 3 Location, Location, Locationc. 75% HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 1/ THE EMERGING MARKET FOR EVCS 42/ LESSONS FROM THE WORLDS MOST 5MATURE EV MARKETS3/ WHERE WILL THE WORLDS VEHICLES BE 6CHARGED? LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION4/ AN ICEBERG LIES

10、 MOSTLY BELOW THE 12SURFACE: “BELOW THE WATER LINE” BUSINESS MODELS HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 5/ PREDICTING WINNERS: A MUGS GAME 13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 CONCLUSION 14Roland Berger 4 Location, Location, Location4Roland BergerLocation, Location, LocationSource: Company websites, G, US EPA, Fuelly, Se

11、condary research, Roland Berger24222018161442A / Alternative pricing in Norway for a 30kWh charging session of a VW Golf EURHome chargingFast charging CPO 1Fast charging CPO 2Diesel equivalentFast charging CPO 3Petrol equivalentFast charging CPO 4Fast charging CPO 51/The emerging market for EVCSWith

12、 an associated future market measured in hundreds of billions, EVCS isattracting much attention.The world is learning that, behaviourally, charging EVs is not like going to the petrol station. For one thing, it takes longer and so is a parallel, rather than a serial, pursuit. People are developing a

13、 habit of charging their vehicles, a little and often, while they are doing something else.There is a broad consensus that the something-else in question will mostly be “sleeping”. Charging a car at home over night is mostly convenient, and, until governments find a way to recoup their losses in pet

14、rol excise, very cheap indeed. The second most popular something-else will very likely be “working”, as companies across the world currently wire up their employee car parks and fleet depots.After Homes and Workplaces, however, there is a crowded field of other EVCS locations, unified only by the ne

15、ed for a vehicle to be present while its driver does something-else. These include restaurants and hardware stores, bus stops and taxi ranks, car parks and supermarkets, and even potentially through wireless charging the road itself. An old-fashioned highway filling station without retail will likel

16、y be one of the smallest such segments. All of these locations will balance cost with convenience; todays mature EV markets seem to be teaching us that, unlike the hydrocarbon world of many habitually driving past a petrol station which costs 1% more, EVCS customers can be comfortable with price dif

17、ferentials as high as seven times where the use case justifies it. AWe have already seen paybacks for some charger locations of less than a year, but also many that will never recover their investment costs; optimising the power rating, real-time pricing, and precise location of these chargers in or

18、der to maximise their utilisation, and thus financial returns, will become a new discipline of our times. Through work with data analytics partners, this new discipline is becoming a key focus of the Roland Berger Centre for Smart Mobility.Roland Berger 5 Location, Location, LocationSource: IEA, Rol

19、and Berger81%China24%United StatesPUBLIC3%Japan4%Other0%Netherlands2%UK2%Norway1%France1%Germany5%United StatesPRIVATE37%China13%Other3%Japan4%Netherlands4%UK5%Norway5%France5%GermanyB / Private and publicly accessible chargers by country, 2019 %2/Lessons from the worlds most mature EV marketsThe ma

20、jority of cars sold in Norway are now EVs, and as a result Oslo is theworlds laboratory. Here, people are habitually buying EVs regardless of access to home charging; the convenience of the public and semi-public charging network is a key driver, and the power rating and market share of such charger

21、s is higher than in the UK, and gradually rising.Infracapitals Christophe Bordes sees this learning opportunity as a major driver in its recent investment in the Nordics: “the Fortum network secures a high-quality entry point into the market, providing a platform for growth in a sector benefiting fr

22、om government policy support and ambitious decarbonisation targets”.The other increasingly mature market is China. Driven by its national industrial strategy, China has more EVs than any other country, and more fast public chargers than the rest of the world combined, many of them operated in surpri

23、singly open-market conditions. RB Shanghai Partner Ron Zheng tells us that local start-ups “StarCharge and Tgood install their own equipment then charge a government-mandated electricity fee plus a service fee which is highly variant by CPO”. BChina, with its many high population density urban centr

24、es, has something in common with many other strongly emerging city-level markets. The worlds city dwellers, pulled by their wealth and openness to modernity, and pushed by fiscal and air quality regulations, have a high propensity to use EVCS, often starkly at odds with their access to home charging

25、. It is in cities, with their fractional ownership models, overloaded power distribution networks and parking constraints where many of the most innovative EVCS models are being born.Roland Berger 6 Location, Location, Location6Roland BergerLocation, Location, LocationSource: EDF PodPoint, Roland Be

26、rgerLongDwell timeShortTrain stationShortSupermarketHIGH PRICE ELASTICITY WorkplaceRestaurantRetail parkDistanceMEDIUM PRICEELASTICITYNational TrustLOW PRICE ELASTICITYTheme parkMotorway servicesLongC / Charging use case segmentation and price elasticity3/Where will the worlds vehicles be charged?Lo

27、cation, location, locationSome aspects of mass car ownership have changed little in 100 years. At USD 850, a Model T cost half that of a Cadillac (and a third that of a Baker Electric) making it around USD 25,000 in todays money.What is clearly different is that Henry Fords customers were dependent

28、upon location in a way that Elon Musks arent. 1908s car buyers had to wait for the now ubiquitous filling stations and paved roads, gradually paid for by gas tax over the next decades; the utility of a car was limited by its location and the infrastructure available to it.In comparison, the marginal

29、 infrastructure cost of adding one EV today is trivially low. A USD 1,000 home charger, or even a simple plug, allows the new EV owner to freeload on the existing networks. It is the price of the car, and not infrastructure, which provides the obstacle to EV adoption, and it is the location of the c

30、harger which dictates its utilisation rate.A helpful way to envision all of these competing locations is shown courtesy of EDF PodPoint. This model, building on the work of their founder Erik Fairbairn, segments locations in the eyes of a typical customer according to how far from their home charger

31、 they are, and how long they are planning to stay there. It can be helpful in thinking about the price sensitivity of customers in different use cases, and the type of chargers best suited for these locations.C An implicit assumption of this model is that there are often ulterior motives for provide

32、rs of charging infrastructure in all environments. In the private arena, this could be as simple as wanting to be perceived as a good host or employer,or as complex as seeking access to balancing payments through National Grids fast reserve mechanism. Public and semi-public environments have even mo

33、re numerous motivations. The task of weighing these various benefits and allocating them to the location owner, the location operator, and the infrastructure owner is thus part and parcel of the EVCS market. However complex these ulteriorSource: Roland Berger. is supported by location-specific “ulte

34、rior motives” beneath the surfaceD / Direct revenues from EV charging is the tip of an icebergIncome from chargers in different locations .motives, EV charging revenue is the tip of an iceberg, and the profit pool has much beneath the surface. DWe will now consider five broad types of location: high

35、way charging stations, public car parking places, destinations, workplaces, and the home, starting with the most publicly accessible.HIGHWAYSThe highways charging model is the one most akin to petrol stations; long distance drivers, running out of range and far from home, stop with the primary inten

36、tion of “filling up”. Speed of charging is vital here to speed travellers on their way. And as with petrol, price elasticity is at its lowest.The challenge for first movers in highway charging has been the low utilisation rates achieved. In young markets, EV uptake can be ponderous and often skewed

37、towards the “bridging technology” of PHEVs, for which range anxiety is solved by petrol, not highway charging. Fast chargers can be expensive, perhaps fifty thousand pounds for the hardware alone, with installation and grid reinforcement on top. These capital costs can dominate charger economics,mak

38、ing the energy cost component of running a network relatively low, sometimes as low as 25%.In combination, a pure highway charging infrastructure model is yet to make anyone rich; the outcome is a tiny 2-3% share of the charging market.As in most countries, the UKs highway charging business models h

39、ave shown mixed success. The two first movers, Ecotricity and Tesla, have very different business models: Ecotricity is an eco-focused energy retailer and has attempted to draw in its eco-minded clientele, for example, by cross selling discounted miles to domestic energy customers. Tesla in contrast

40、 has been all about selling BEVs and curing range anxiety to sell more of them. As such, its chargers branding has been hi-tech and futuristic, and its pricing designed todraw in more Tesla owners. Neither of these first movers have made huge profits from their charging networks, though their host c

41、ompanies have both prospered. More recent entrants to the UKs highway charging market are also in evidence. Petrol stations, fighting to maintain long-term relevance (and perhaps fighting to avoid the long-term cost of land remediation on closure), are part of this. In the foremost UK example, BP ac

42、quired Chargemaster in 2018 and went on to develop the countrys largest network in its offering. Many smaller networks have also emerged, a dozen of which are presently establishing aunified roaming tariff to project a simpler national coverage.Finally, a notable international entrant to the UK is I

43、ONITY. A joint venture founded by car OEMs, IONITY has proprietary fast charging technology, developed in-house and made available preferentially for selected EV owners (e.g. free to drivers of new Porsche Taycans). Its international network across Europe supports a new breed of high-end internation

44、al drivers, with the apparently high cost of subsidy being manageable because, for example, even Porsche Taycan owners are still observed to charge at home. Like Tesla, this network seeks to allay range anxiety in order to sell more cars, but unlike Tesla it has a more open architecture; all other u

45、sers can then access these chargers too, only at a premium price typically more expensive than petrol.Highway charging business models have been difficult to date; home and work charging segments have beaten them for market share, and some chargers have rusted from underutilisation before they have

46、even paid back their investment. But mature markets like Norway are seeing highway market shares creeping up as BEVs become more popular than PHEVs, and as long distance EV driving (even before COVID-induced public transport anxiety) becomes more common. Time will tell how high the sector will rise.

47、ON-STREETDoes a lack of off-street parking facilities preclude one from owning an EV? The short answer: absolutely not. Does that mean I wont be able to charge my car “in the normal way”? Again, the short answer: absolutely not.Fortunately, many different stakeholders have already begun addressing t

48、his potential conundrum through a variety of different “on-street” solutions. First of all, there are the more “traditional” charging players such as Source London, very often tied to a specific, typically urban, locale. They have been described as traditional here as they were some of the first pub

49、licly available chargers and the hardware is the most prototypical bollard-style charging station. Although initially targeted towards short-term parking usage, the increasing frequency with which they are located in highly residential areas has somewhat changed the use case to one where overnight c

50、harging is closer to the norm.A challenge here is that the resultant increase in street furniture and required installation works put a cap on the scalability of this type of charger as the silver bullet for EV owners without off-street parking. In the last few years, a new style of charger has emer

51、ged: one that leverages existing street furniture. Several providers, including Virgin Media, are pursuing solutions like this, but one of the first examples to market is Ubitricity. Their small, discreet chargers areinstalled onto existing street lamps with EV drivers charging using a proprietary c

52、able that is able to record the amount of energy charged and act as a “meter”. The power rating of such devices currently sits around 5 kW for a number of charge points, still noticeably slower than the 7 kW home charger installations, but better than that offered by a standard 3-pin plug, and “fast

53、 enough” in an environment where cars will typically be left for a long time.It is not only large-scale megacity initiatives that will thrive here: Dundee city in Scotland has been able to get its residents to successfully utilise “charging hubs” located at the top of a multi-storey car park. These

54、hubs are partly powered by solar panels and have allowed the city to become the soi-disant “most EV friendly city in the UK”. With tight control over its assets, the city council has been able to position the city in a way that allows for more e-mobility infrastructure development, saving a commenda

55、ble 854 tonnes of CO2 emissions(equivalent to 5,452,000 miles of driving) along the way.Ambitious city mayors, driving air quality ambitions, will likely continue to be the catalyst for the on-street sector. Many variants of this will emerge, sometimes straying into public car parks, some of it (e.g

56、. induction charging pads under taxi ranks) prescribing car technology types, and often drawing on infrastructure funds to relieve pressure on the public purse.DESTINATIONSA surprise early leader in the battle for charging customers is a brand-new category: “destinations”. Destinations can include a

57、 wide range of venues, the primary purpose of which is neither parking nor charging, but at which cars are typically left for half an hour or more. The single most highly utilised EV charging location we have seen evidence for is a fast food outlet near Oslos international airport, where drivers are

58、 known to congregate to avoid the high parking costs of the meet-and-greet.Like all new categories, particularly those with such strong and varied ulterior motives, there are no clear rules as to what the price or the offer of destination charging should be.The owners of a restaurant or a shop are u

59、nlikely to view themselves to be experts in operating electrical infrastructure, but will have a clear focus on the value of an additional customer, particularly where that customer is likely to be a big spender. Some British supermarkets are now offering free charging to entice target customers fro

60、m competitors.We are living through a period in which the value of chargers in these destinations is unclear. While it is undoubtedly true that some speculatively installed chargers will never achieve a meaningful investment return for either the EVCS owner or its associated site operator, there wil