TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u航空公司減少航 有機(jī)食品 Pita店擴(kuò) 美食書 HR要對收益下降負(fù) 學(xué)校宿 貿(mào)易逆 建立生物技術(shù)公 OakCity’sShop月原始原ThefollowingeditorialappearedintheElmCityp"TheconstructionlastyearofashopmallindowntownOakCitywasamistake.Sincethemallhasopened,anumberoflocalbusinesseshaveclosed,andthedowntownareasuffersfromanacuteparkingshortage,andarrestsforcrimeandvagrancyhaveincreasedinthenearbyOakCityPark.ElmCityshouldpayattentiontotheexampleoftheOakCitymallanddenytheapplicationtobuildashopmallinElmCity."考思因果關(guān)系-錯誤因果：不一定是由于shopmallopen導(dǎo)致其他商店關(guān)閉當(dāng)?shù)厣倘思娂娺x擇；(2)和流浪者增多可能是其他因素造成的，比如房價太高，大學(xué)生畢業(yè)找不到工作，只好選擇或者流浪。錯誤類比：ElmCityOakCity不可完全等同，兩座城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和生活水忽略了帶來的好處，例如createnew ernmentrevenue,置疑：以上提到的幾項數(shù)據(jù)全部來源不明，可能不夠中立客觀考范InthiseditorialtheauthorrebukesOakCityforallowingtheconstructionofanewdowntownshopmall.Citinganumberofproblemsthathaveoccurredsincethebuildingofth,theauthorconcludesthattheresidentsofOakCityhavenotbenefitedfromthandthatOakCityexercisedpoorjudgmentinallowingthtobebuilt.Amongtheproblemscitedbytheauthoraretheclosureoflocalbusinesses,lackofparkinginthedowntownarea,andincreasedtrashandlitterinacityparknearthemall.Moreover,theauthorarguesthatprofitsderivedfromsalesarenotbenefitingOakCitybecausetheownerofthemalllivesinanothercity.Theauthor'sargumentisproblematicinseveralrespects.Intheplace,theauthorassumesthatadditionofthenewmallisthecauseofthevariousproblemscited.Theonlyevidenceofferedtosupportthiisthattheconstructionofthemalloccurredbeforetheseproblemsmanifestedthemselves.However,thisevidenceisinsufficienttoestablishtheclaiminquestion.Achronologicalrelationshipisonlyoneoftheindicatorsofacausalrelationshipbetweentwoevents.Inthesecondplace,theauthorhasfocusedonlyonnegativeeffectsthemalthashadonthecity.Amoredetailedysisofthesituationmightrevealthatthepositivebenefitsforthecityfaroutweightheproblemsonwhichtheauthorfocuses.Forexample,newjobsmighthavebeencreatedfortheresidentsofOakCity,andtaxrevenuesmighthavebeenincreasedforthecity.LackingamorecomprehensiveysisoftheimpactofthonOakCity,itispresumptuousonthepartoftheauthortoconcludethatOakCity'sdecisiontoallowthemalltobebuiltwasInconclusion,theauthor'sargumentisunconvincing.Tostrengthentheargumenttheauthorwouldhavetodemonstratethattheconstructionofthemallcausedthevariousproblemsmentioned.Theauthorwouldalsohavetoshowthatthenegativeeffectsoftheprojectoutweighedthepositiveeffects.Olympic月原始原ThefollowingappearedaspartofanannualreporttostockholdersbyOlympicFoods,aprocessoroffrozenfoods.“Overtime,thecostsofprocessinggodownbecauseasanizationslearnhowtodobetter, emoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostof3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayservicein1984.Thesameprincipleappliestotheprocessingoffood.AndsinceOlympicFoodswillsooncelebrateitstwenty-fifthbirthday,wecanexpectthatourlongexperiencewillenableustominimizecostsandthusize考思錯誤類比：Thefoodindustryisnotogoustothecolorfilmindustry.食品行業(yè)與彩色膠因果關(guān)系：Otherfactorsthatmaycontributetothecostdeclineoftheprintingcostshouldbeconsideredandruledout.無根據(jù)假設(shè)：Theconclusionoftheargumentisbasedonagratuitousassumptionthatthecompanycanminimizecostandizeprofitbecausethecompanyhasbeenconductedfor25years.(1)(2)costprofit就會增加，只有在銷考范Citingfactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustrythatindicateadownwardtrendinthecostsoffilmprocessinera24-yearperiod,theauthorarguesthatOlympicFoodswilllikewisebeabletominimizecostsandthusizeprofitsinthefuture.Insupportofthisconclusiontheauthorcitesteralprinciplethat“asanizationslearnhowtodothingsbetter,emoreefficient.”Thisprinciple,coupledwiththefactthatOlympicFoodshashad25yearsofexperienceinthefoodprocessingindustryleadstotheauthor’srosyprediction.Thisargumentisunconvincingbecauseitsuffersfromtwocriticalflaws.,theauthor’sforecastofminimalcostsandumprofitsrestsonthegratuitousassumptionthatOlympicFoods’“l(fā)ongexperience”hastaughtithowtodothingsbetter.Thereis,however,noguaranteethatthisisthecase.Nordoestheauthorciteanyevidencetosupportthisassumption.Justaslikely,OlympicFoodshaslearnednothingfromits25yearsinthefood-processingbusiness.Lackingthisassumption,theexpectationofincreasedefficiencyisentirelyunfounded.Second,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustryareapplicabletothefoodprocessingindustry.Differencesbetweenthetwoindustriesclearlyoutweighthesimilarities,thusmakingtheogyhighlylessthanvalid.Forexample,problemsofspoilage,contamination,andtimelytransportationallaffectthefoodindustrybutarevirtuallyabsentinthefilm-processingindustry.Problemssuchasthesemightpresentinsurmountableobstaclesthatpreventloweringfood-processingcostsinthefuture.Asitstandstheauthor’sargumentisnotcompelling.TostrengthentheconclusionthatOlympicFoodswillenjoyminimalcostsand umprofitsinthefuture,theauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatthecompanyhaslearnedhowtodothingsbetterasaresultofits25yearsofexperience.Supportingexamplesdrawnfromindustriesmoresimilartothefood-processingindustrywouldfurthersubstantiatetheauthor’s月原assistantmarkingredirectorwritetothecompany'smarketdirectordeparmetn:basedonoursamllerfranchisesinfor,peopleprefertogotolocalownedgrocery,sincethelocalgroceyalreadyhavethecutomerloyalty.samethingwillhappentothesupermarketchainwhichwewillopenatthisareaeventhoughwecanprovidelowerprice.forsolvingthisproblem,theassistantdirectorsuggestthat:shiftinghalfnationaladvisebudgettothesponsringlocalcommunicatoinwhichfocusafter-schoolcommuncatoin.然后問你這個哥們的觀點有什么問題Byyeincreasemarketsharecutinternationaladbudget，培養(yǎng)loyaltygrocery競爭。V1.marketingdirectorstores在進(jìn)入小城市的時候，即使價錢很低，質(zhì)量localgrocerystorescustomersloyalty。于是他為了develoployaltylocallifelocalpeople接受他們，包括建足球場神馬的要投資錢的。therefore他的公司更有競爭力。V2.marketcomarketingassistantdirectorceo提交了一份關(guān)于其旗下商店在一supermarkets。memocustomerloyalty的問題（即便在提供低廉價格以及適銷對路的產(chǎn)品的情況下，銷售情況依然不好）。memo基于這個分析提出了解決方設(shè)施，sponsormarketco在當(dāng)?shù)氐腸ustomerloyalty,進(jìn)而提高銷考思因果關(guān)系-忽略他因：(1)Loyalty和消費選擇的關(guān)系沒有詳細(xì)論據(jù)，忽略了其他因素，比如交通、服務(wù)態(tài)度；(2)做也許效果比developconsumerloyalty項目的效果更好，建操場之類顧客不一定買賬；(3)調(diào)整宣傳的搞基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)不一定能讓localpeople在MarketCo買東西；(4)培養(yǎng)客戶忠誠度是一個漫長的過程無根據(jù)假設(shè)：movesomeoftheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingoflocalincreasethelocalmarketsharedeveloployalty.藥店競月原By講了一個H公司的CEO準(zhǔn)備在A這個地方建3個分店因為這里有一個叫K的PHAMACYDRUGSTORElargestmarketshareinthelocalposition.CEO覺得通過KLEARDINGPHAMACY。V1.Holner's是一家連鎖藥店。它的vice給CEO道在尋找機(jī)會建3家新店。在Alligard市，有的兩大rival。其中KulbyDrug在該市擁有很多忠實客戶。KDA市的市中心建立一家店；最近幾年又在該市其它地方新建三家門店應(yīng)該在這幾家門店的旁邊建立的新店以nationalbranddrugs的價格優(yōu)（我Aleadingdrugstoreoperation。A城市，但是大部分的市民還是選擇去他們自，己的一個地方藥店，他們都對那個藥店loyal?，F(xiàn)在應(yīng)該aggressive一點，努力把這些衷心于地方藥店的人搞過來?，F(xiàn)在那個地方藥店要新開三個店了的策略是，在那三個新地方藥店旁邊開三個H藥店，并且在nationalbrand本國品牌的藥上面提供的，這樣以來那些市民就會發(fā)現(xiàn)H藥店比他們的地方藥店要好然后就能成為了。，考思Klocalstore，HKstrategyH藥店上未必會獲得居民的歡迎。無根據(jù)假設(shè)：(1HKstorelowerpriceonnationalbrandsKlongtimecustomer。當(dāng)?shù)氐南M者可能會更注重服務(wù)好，種類多，安全有保障等。(2)“從r拿到bigvolume的貨就不一定有優(yōu)勢。(3)三家店能成功不一定能稱為當(dāng)?shù)氐膍arketleader：要考慮別的競爭財務(wù)公月原By個sale是指總體的還是alsoftware的了】的方法是給homeuser的alsoftwareadvancedspecialfeatures。FromGMATAWA題庫-ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumtoateamdeveloaccountingsoftwareforSmartProSoftware,Inc.:“Currently,moreprofessionalaccountantsuseSmartProaccountingsoftwarethananyotherbrand.However,inthemarketforalaccountingsoftwarefornon-professionalstouseinpreparingtheir etaxreturns,manyofourcompetitorsareoutsellingus.Insurveys,ourprofessionalcustomersrepeatedlysaythattheyhavechosenSmartProSoftwarebecauseourmostsophisticatedsoftwareproductsincludemoreadvancedspecialfeaturesthancompetingbrands.Therefore,themosteffectivewayforustoincreasesalesofouralaccountingsoftwareforhomeuserswouldclearlybetoaddtheadvancedspecialfeaturesthatourprofessionalsoftwareproductscurrentlyoffer.”考思錯誤比較：他家的產(chǎn)品收專業(yè)歡迎是因為符合用戶需求，thefactthatcompetitor’sproductismorepopularwithhomeusermaycontributetothegooduserexperience,integratedfunction,orbeautifuluserinterface.無根據(jù)假設(shè)把專業(yè)產(chǎn)品加到homeuser的中去一定能提高銷量嗎？用戶可能因為功Smartpro的專業(yè)產(chǎn)品。公司雇臨時月原By關(guān)于一個公司的報告，說最近一段時間這個公司利潤下降了，所以想要效仿一個leadofautoindustry，replacefull-timeemplyeeswithche r,temporaryones.這樣的花就可以減少laborcost。V1.講的是關(guān)于設(shè)計行業(yè)利潤這幾年不高，但是Autoindustry這幾年利潤有所提高都是因為臨時員工的成本低，它們工作時間少，比公司員工工資低，所以這個設(shè)計公司就要25%轉(zhuǎn)換為臨時工，相信一定可以帶來短期內(nèi)公司利潤的提升還有長期的什么，V2.softwaredesigncompanyplanstocutitsbudgetinordertoincreaseprofits(反正就是為了使公司得到好處)。然后舉了一個autoproductionindustry的例子，說autoindustryswift一些permanentlaborto臨時工（temporary）,臨時工比工人的工資低employeebenefits,autosoftwaredesign公司就覺得減少工，增加臨時工同樣可以bolstercurrentprofitsintheshorttermandbenefit公司inthelongterm.考思錯誤類比：將汽車公司與公司類別不當(dāng)，兩個行業(yè)都不一樣，公司對技術(shù)要求因果關(guān)系：profitcost還要考慮eefficiencyblostercurrentprofitsintheshorttermandbenefitthecompanyinthelongterm?loyalty以及responsibility，或許換臨時工也會讓正式員工感到解雇，不能安心工作，如此一來就沒stabilityinlongterm了。環(huán)境下，這些design公司相對其他領(lǐng)域的公司更加看重公司idea的工作，而且這樣的design公司占領(lǐng)市場一個非常有效的方式就是開發(fā)出一款新好用的，這樣雇傭大量的臨時工很可能讓公司的idea。公司網(wǎng)上培訓(xùn)員月原ByAdvertiseonlinetrainingprogramfornewemployees. profit。。V1.一篇文章，像是，說如果你聘用了一個新的員工，你需要花時間來訓(xùn)練他（ 作時間，而且篩選員工也浪費工作時間（devoteemployee）降低了產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)，降低了效益公司有一款onlineself-trainingprograms，用這個員工可以自己在家培訓(xùn)，節(jié)省了時間，同時thecostoftrainingprogramsismorethantheoffsetsavedmoneybyreduceworkforcetodevoteemployee.（這里沒理解cost指的是online這個的cost還是原有的training的cost）因此買的online產(chǎn)品可以提高效益。V2.advertiseonlinetrainingprogram。brochure上的話：“……”，大意是推onlineinteractivetrainingprogramnewemployeestrainthemselves，這樣不program會更加efficientreducecostsandincreaseprofitabilityonlineprogramsavedproductivityoffset掉?？妓级嗟男氯耍@些課程是一人一個的，無法確定cost誰大誰小。商場擴(kuò)大家居部月原始原Thefollowingappearedaspartofa mendationfromthebusinessmanagerofadepartmentstore.“Localclothingstoresreportedthattheirprofitsdecreased,o ag,forthethree-motperiodbetweenAugust1andOctober31.Storesthatsellproductsforthehomereportedthat, age,theirprofitsincreasedduringthissameperiod.Clearly,consumersarechoosingtobuyproductsfortheirhomesinsteadofclothing.Totakeadvantageofthistrend,weshouldreducethesizeofourclothingdepartmentsandenlargeourhomefurnishingsandhouseholdproductsdepartments.”考思置疑：riodofthreemonthistooshorttodrawageneralconclusionoftheoveralltrend.樣本不足，三個月太短，不能統(tǒng)計出一個趨勢。Whetherthereportsfromthelocalclothingstoresandstoresthatsellproductsforthehomearereliableornotarestillopentodoubt,thusmakingtheauthor'ssuggestiongroundless.錯誤比較-時間縱向：Thepastthreemonthstrenddoesnotguaranteethesameinthe(1)(3)無根據(jù)假設(shè)：擴(kuò)大家具賣場一定增加收益。擴(kuò)大家居部門需要雇員工、擴(kuò)建倉庫、提高日常費用，可能得不償失。Bylocalreportprofitsale考范Baseduponsalesreportsoverathree-monthperiodthatindicateanincreaseinprofitsforstoresthatsellproductsforthehomeandadecreaseinprofitsforclothingstores,thebusinessmanagerofadepartmentstoreconcludesthatconsumersarechoosingtopurchasehomefurnishingsratherthanclothing.Onthebasisofthisconclusion,themanager mendsareductioninthesizeoftheclothingdepartmentandanincreaseinthesizeofthehome-furnishingsdepartment. mendationisproblematicintwocriticalIntheplace,theauthor’sconclusionthatconsumersarechoosingtobuyproductsfortheirhomesinsteadofclothingisbasedupontoosmallasample.Datagatheredfromathree-monthperiodisinsufficienttoestablishtheconclusiondrawnfromit.Itisquitepossiblethatthethree-monthperiodchosenisidiosyncraticandnotrepresentativeofentireyear’ssales.Ifso,reducingthesizeoftheclothingdepartmentsandenlargingthehome-furnishingsdepartmentsmaybeacostlymistake.Inthesecondplace,thed ollectedduringthethreemonthperiodmaybebiased.Thefactthatthedatareflectssalesinlocalstoresiscauseforconcern.Itispossiblethatthesalestrendinaparticularlocationisnotrepresentativeofsalesinotherregions.Forexample,salesofclothinginFloridaduringthewintermonthsarelikelytobequitedifferentfromsalesofclothinginAlaskaduringthesameperiod.Inconclusion,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.Amoreconvincingargumentmustprovideadditionalsalesdata,collectedatdifferentperiodsoftheyearandatdifferentlocations,thatsubstantiatesthetrendinquestion.IT投資月原By作文是公司要盡可能，就要提高員工的efficiency。然后說最先進(jìn)的informationITproductivityprofit變多FromGMATAWA題庫-Thefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheinformationtechnologydepartmentofamajoradvertisingfirm:“Themoreefficientafirm’semployeesare,themoreprofitablethatfirmwillbe.Improvementsinafirm’sinformationtechnologyhardwareandsoftwareareaprovenwaytoincreasetheefficiencyofemployeeswhodothemajorityoftheirworkoncomputers.Therefore,ifourfirminvestsinthemostpowerfulandadvancedinformationtechnologyavailable,employeeproductivitywillbeized.Thisstrategyensuresthateverydollarspentonenhancedinformationtechnologywillhelptoincreaseourfirm’sprofitmargins.”考思無根據(jù)假設(shè)：Thereisnoeviencegiventosubstantiatetheclaimthatimprovementsoninformationtechnologycouldleadtohigheremployeeproductivity.(1)東西太新員工不適應(yīng)反而降低效率(2)投入大于產(chǎn)出，最終收益還是降低因果關(guān)系：投入增加，邊際收益增加？Asamatteroffact,thefactthattheincreaseincompany’sprofitsmightbeexplainedbyavarityoffactors.比如員工福利、生產(chǎn)成本、公司房提高員工效月原始原ThefollowingappearedinamemototheSaludatowncouncilfromthetown’s“Researchindicatesthatthosewhoexerciseregularlyarehospitalizedlessthanhalfasoftenasthosewhodon’texercise.Byprovidingawell-equippedgymforSaluda’smunicipalemployees,weshouldbeabletoreducethecostofourgrouphealthinsurancecoveragebyapproximay50%andtherebyachieveabalancedtownbudget.”考思不足：research的樣本容量、統(tǒng)計標(biāo)志都沒有說明，無法保證研究結(jié)果具有一定的參無根據(jù)假設(shè)：不一定提供了gym員工就會去鍛煉，所以無法確康水平會提升cost(2)考范InthismemoSaluda’sbusiness mendsthatthetownprovideagymforemployeesasameansofbalancingthetown’sbudget.Themanagerreasonsthatsincestudiesshowthatpeoplewhoexerciseregularlyarehospitalizedlessthanhalfasoftenthanthosewhodon’texercise,Saludacouldsaveapproximay50%onthecostofitsgrouphealthinsurancecoveragebyprovidingitsemployeeswithawell-equippedgym.Thesavingsoninsurancewouldbalancethetown’sbudget.Themanager’sargumentisunconvincingbecauseitrestsonseveralunsupportedanddubiousassumptions.,themanagerassumesthatSaluda’semployeeswillexerciseregularlyifawell-equippedfacilityisprovidedforthem.Thisassumptionisquestionablesincethemerefactthatagymismadeavailableforemployeeuseisnoguaranteethattheywillavailthemselvesofitatall,letaloneonaregularbasis.Second,themanagerassumesthatSaluda’semployeesdonotexerciseregularly.Onceagain,manageroffersnosupportforthiscrucialassumption.Obviously,ifallofSauda’salreadyengageindailyexercise,thehospitalizationratewillbeunaffectedbyequipanexercisefacilityandnosavingswillberealizedonthegrouphealthinsurance.Third,themanagerassumesthatthereisadirectrelationbetweenthehospitalizationrateforemployeesandthecostoftheirgrouphealthinsurancesuchthatareductioninthehospitalizationratewillresultinacorrespondingreductioninthecostofinsurance.Whilethismayturnouttobetrue,themanagerhasfailedtoofferanyevidenceforthi.Finally,themanagerassumesthatthecostofbuildingawell-equippedexercisefacilitywillnotnegatethesavingsrealizedonthegrouphealthinsurance.Untilevidencehasbeenprovidedtoshowthatthisisnotthecase,themanager’splanisunacceptable.Inconclusion,thebusinessmanager’sproposaltoprovideanexercisefacilityasameansofbalancingSaluda’sbudgetisnotconvincing.Tostrengthentheargument,evidencewouldhavetobeprovidedforeachoftheassumptionslistedinthepreviousysis.Citrus月原始原Thefollowingistakenfromaneditorialinalocalnewsp“Overthepastdecade,thepriceperpoundofcitrusfruithasincreasedsubstantially.Elevenyearsago,Megamartcharged5centsapieceforlemons,buttodayitcommonlychargesover30centsapiece.Inonlyoneoftheselasevenyearswastheweatherunfavorablefrowingcitruscrops.Evidently,then,citrusgrowershavebeenresponsiblefortheexcessiveincreaseinthepriceofcitrusfruit,andstrictpricingregulationsareneededtopreventthemfromcontinuingtoinflateprices.”考思成本上升，或者通貨膨脹等因素。Monetaryinflation,increaseddistributionandlaborcostsoralterationsinsupplyanddemandconditionsthegrowersdesireforincreasedprofits.無根據(jù)假設(shè)：天氣好，所以果樹的產(chǎn)量一定高。Theeditorialrestsonaunconvincingassumptionthatthebadweatherinonlyoneoftheselasevenyearsleadstotheyield’sreductionincitrusfruit.考范Inthiseditorialtheauthorarguesfortheimpositionofstrictpricingregulationsinordertopreventcitrusgrowersfromcontinuedinflationofpricesofcitrusfruit.Theneedforsuchregulationissupportedbytheauthor’scontentionthatcitrusgrowershavebeenunnecessarilyraisingpricesofcitrusfruitinthepast.TheevidenceforthisallegationisthefactthatthepriceoflemonsatMegamarthasincreasedfrom15centsperpoundtooveradollarapoundduringthepreceding11-yearperiod.Theauthormaintainsthatthisincreaseisunjustifiablebecauseweatherconditionshavebeenfavorabletocitrusproductioninallbutoneofthoseyears.Thisargumentisflawedforseveralreasons.andforemost,theauthorassumesthattheonlyfactorthatinfluencesthepriceofcitrusfruitistheweather.Otherfactorssuchasmonetaryinflation,increaseddistributionandlaborcosts,oralterationsinsupplyanddemandconditionsarecompleyignoredaspossiblesourcesfortheincrease.Thechargethatcitrusgrowershaveunnecessarilyraisedpricescanbesustainedonlyiftheseandotherpossiblefactorscanbecompleyruledoutascontributingtothepriceincreases.Sincetheauthorfailstoaddressthesefactors,the mendationcallingforstrictpricingregulationscanbedismissedoutofhandasfrivolous.Second,theauthorassumesthattheonlywaytocombatincreasedpricesisthroughernmentintervention.Inafreeenterprisesystemmanyothermeansofaffectingthepricingofgoodsareavailable.Forexample,boycottingaproductandtherebyinfluencingsupplyanddemandconditionsofthecommodityisaneffectivemeansofinfluencingthepriceoftheproduct.Inafreemarketeconomythecallforpriceregulationbytheernmentshouldoccuronlywhenallothermeanstorectifytheproblemhavebeenexhausted.Inconclusion,theauthor’sargumentisunconvincing.Tostrengthentheargumentitwouldbenecessarytoshowthattheonlyfactorinfluencingthepriceincreasesisthegrowers’desireforincreasedprofits.PalmGrove買月原By在一個地方的commercialrealestateprice（PalmGory好像是增長的快很多。PGretailspacesprices一定貴好多，所以前一個地方的spacesprice是被高估的?；趂inancialinterest，應(yīng)該買PG的retailspace。FromGMATAWA題庫-Thefollowingappearedinaletterfromapart-ownerofasmallretailclothingchaintoherbusinesspartner:“CommercialrealestatepriceshavebeenrisingsteadilyintheSandidaHeightsneighborhoodforseveralyears,whilethepricesintheadjacentneighborhoodofPalmGrovehaveremainedthesame.Itseemsobvious,then,thataretailspaceinSandidaHeightsmustnowbemuoreexpensivethanasimilarspaceinPalmGrove,whichwasnotthecaseseveralyearsago.So,itappearsthatretailspacesinSandidaHeightsarenowoverpricedrelativetothoseinPalmGrove.Therefore,itwouldbeinourfinancialinteresttopurchasearetailspaceinPalmGroveratherthaninSandidaHeights.考思因果關(guān)系-忽略他因：Toincreasefinancialinterest不一定是因為低價買到了一塊地，還要因果關(guān)系-錯誤因果：TheclaimthatretailspacesinSandideHeightsarenowoverpriceddoesnotnecessarilyprovesthatpurchasingaretailspaceinPalmGrovecanbringaboutfinancialinterest.S的門店價格高不能說明在PSfinancialbenifitsSSfinancialinterest，還應(yīng)該了解S地門店價格的趨勢，并比較兩地的商業(yè)利益。無根據(jù)假設(shè)：TherealestatepriceinSadidaHeightshaverisenwhilethenpricesinPalmGrovehaveremainedunchangedisnotsufficienttoreachtheconclusionthataretailspaceinSandidaHeightsisnotmu oreexpensivethanasimilarinPlamGrove.S的原地PSP的便宜。腦洞大開假設(shè)（謹(jǐn)慎參考）：P買地，也許不是個好主意，其他競P的競爭壓力大。學(xué)校減少開月原始原Thefollowingappearedinaneditorialfromanewsprservingthetownof“TheSaludaConsolidatedHighSchooloffersover200differentcoursesfromwhichitsstudentscanchoose.Amuchsmallerprivateschooldownthestreetoffersabasiccurriculumofonly80differentcourses,butitconsistentlysendsahigherproportionofitsgraduatingseniorsontocollegethanConsolidateddoes.Byeliminatingatleasthalfofthecoursesofferedthereandfocusingonabasiccurriculum,wecouldimprovestudentperformanceatConsolidatedandalsosavemanytaxdollars.”考思topstudents.因果關(guān)系：私立學(xué)校更好不一定因為開課少，也許是老師有工資，老師更負(fù)責(zé)任等習(xí)積極性降低，特殊才能無法施展，實踐能力得不到培養(yǎng)等效果。S學(xué)校更注重技能的培養(yǎng)，許多學(xué)生starttheirowncareerratherthangotocollege考范Inthiseditorialtheauthor mendsthatSaluda’sConsolidatedHighSchooleliminatehalfofits200coursesandfocusprimarilyonbasiccurriculuminordertoimprovestudentperformanceandsavetaxrevenues.Theauthor’s mendationisproblematicforseveralreasons.Tobeginwith,theauthorassumesthattheonlyrelevantdifferencebetweenConsolidatedandtheprivateschoolisthenumberofcoursesofferedbyeach.However,otherrelevantdifferencesbetweentheschoolsmightaccountforthedifferenceintheproportionoftheirgraduateswhogoontocollege.Forexample,theprivateschool’sstudentsmightbeselectedfromapoolofgiftedorexceptionalstudents,ormighthavetomeetrigorousadmissionstandardswhereasConsolidated’sstudentsmightbedrawnfromthecommunityatlargewithlittleornoqualificationforadmission.Next,theauthorassumesthattheproportionofstudentswhogoontocollegeisanoverallmeasureofstudentperformance.Whilethisisatemptingassumption,itstruthisbynomeansobvious.Ifstudentexcellenceisnarrowlydefinedintermsofthestudent’sabilitytogainaccesstocollege,thisassumptionissomewhatreasonable.However,givenabroaderconceptionofstudentexcellencethattakesintoaccountstudent’sabilitytolearnandapplytheirknowledgetonewsituations,itisnotobviousthatcollegeadmissionisreliableindicatorofperformance.Forexample,studentsinnon-academicdisciplinescouldconceivablyperformathighlevelswithinthesedisciplinesbutneverthelessbeunabletomeetcollegeadmissionstandards.Finally,theauthorassumesthatsavingsintaxrevenueswillresultfromthereducedcostsoffundingthepaired-downcurriculum.Thisisnotnecessarilytrue.Forexample,itcouldturnoutthatbothprogramsservethesa mberofstudentsandrequirethesa mberofclassroomsandteacher.Inconclusion,theauthorhasnotmadeaconvincingcaseforthe mendationtoeliminatecoursesatConsolidatedandfocusonabasiccurriculum.TostrengthentheconclusiontheauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatConsolidatedandtheprivateschoolweresufficientlysimilartowarranttheogybetweenthem.Moreover,therelationshipbetweenstudentperformanceandcollegeadmissionandthemechanismwherebysavingsintaxrevenueswouldbe plishedwouldhavetobeclarified.學(xué)校醫(yī)月原始原Thefollowingappearedinanarticleinthehealthsectionofanewsp“Thereisacommonmisconceptionthatuniversityhospitalsarebetterthancommunityorprivatehospitals.Thisnotionisunfounded,however:theuniversityhospitalsinourregionemploy15percentfewerdoctors,havea20percentlowersuccessrateintreatingpatients,makefarlessoverallprofit,andpaytheirmedicalstaffconsiderablylessthandoprivatehospitals.Furthermore,manydoctorsatuniversityhospitalstypicallydividetheirtimeamongteaching,conductingresearch,andtreatingpatients.Fromthisitseemsclearthatthequalityofcareatuniversityhospitalsislowerthanthatatotherkindsofhospitals.”考思樣本問題（以偏概全）：region的例子就推出所有的大學(xué)醫(yī)院都不好，這種generalization是絕對不嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)?；Itisentirelypossiblethat這個地方的只是一個特例，很有可lowsuccessrate并不代表lowqualityofcare（如同1中提及的所接納的病情上這一successrate會低）考范Inthisargumenttheauthorconcludesthatuniversityhospitalsprovidenobettercarethanprivateorcommunityhospitals.Theauthorbasesthisconclusiononthefollowingclaimsaboutuniversityhospitals:theonesinthisregionemploy15percentfewerdoctors;theyhavea20percentlowersuccessrateintreatingpatients;theypaytheirstaffslessmoney;theymakelessprofitthancommunityhospitals;andtheyutilizedoctorswhodividetheirtimebetweenteaching,researchandtreatingpatients.Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralreasons.Themostegregiousreasoningerrorintheargumentistheauthor’suseofevidencepertaininguniversityhospitalsinthisregionasthebasisforageneralizationaboutalluniversityTheunderlyingassumptionoperativeinthisinferenceisthatuniversityhospitalsinthisregionarerepresentativeofalluniversityhospitals.NoevidenceisofferedtosupportthisgratuitousSecondly,theonlyrelevantreasonofferedinsupportoftheclaimthatthequalityofcareislowerinuniversityhospitalsthanitisatotherhospitalsisthefactthatuniversityhospitalshavealowersuccessrateintreatingpatients.Butthisreasonisnotsufficienttoreachtheconclusioninquestionunlessitcanbeshownthatthepatientstreatedinbothtypesofhospitalssufferedfromsimilartypesofmaladies.Forexample,ifuniversityhospitalsroutinelytreatpatientssufferingfromrarediseaseswhereasotherhospitalstreatonlythosewhosufferfromknowndiseasesandillnesses,thedifferenceinsuccessrateswouldnotbeindicativeofthequalityofcarereceived.Finally,theauthorassumesthatthenumberofdoctorsahospitalemploys,itssuccessrateintreatingpatients,theamountitpaysitsstaff,andtheprofitsitearnsareallreliableindicatorsofthequalityofcareitdelivers.Noevidenceisofferedtosupportthisassumptionnorisitobviousthatanyofthesefactorsislinkedtothequalityofcaredeliveredtopatients.Moreover,thefactthatdoctorsinuniversityhospitalsdividetheirtimeamongmanytasksfailstodemonstratethattheydoapoorerjoboftreatingpatientsthandoctorsatotherkindsofhospitals.Infact,itishighlylikelythattheydoabetterjobbecausetheyaremoreknowledgeablethanotherdoctorsduetotheirteachingandresearch.Inconclusion,theauthor’sargumentisunconvincing.Tostrengthentheargumenttheauthorwouldhavetodemonstratethatuniversityhospitalsinthisregionarerepresentativeofalluniversityhospitals,aswellasestablishingacausallinkbetweenthevariousfactorscitedandthequalityofcaredeliveredtopatients.摩托公radio月原ByMetromotorcycles公司的marketresearcher認(rèn)為socialnetworkingwebsites對于他們的不管用，某個社交的user顯示他們都不會因為看到而去的。REsearcher evisionradioads更管用，去年因為使用了這兩個，銷售額增加了15%。所有公司應(yīng) evisionradioV1.一個摩托車公司不打算繼續(xù)在onl