EpisodeOne:TheBattleofIdeas第一部：思想的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)1.第一章：Prologue序言[2:45]2.第二章：TheOldOrderFails舊秩序的失敗[8:11]3.第三章：CommunismontheHeights共產(chǎn)主義制高點(diǎn)[6:16]4.第四章：ACapitalistCollapse資本主義的崩潰[8:48]5.第五章：GlobalDepression全球性的蕭條[5:26]6.第六章：WorldwideWar世界大戰(zhàn)[7:00]7.第七章：PlanningthePeace籌備和平[6:47]8.第八章：PilgrimMountain朝圣山[3:43]9.第九章：Germany’sBoldMove德國的大膽前進(jìn)[4:11]10.第十章：India’sWay印度方式[3:51]11.第十一章：ChicagoAgainsttheTide芝加哥逆流[7:32]12.第十二章：TheSpecterofStagflation滯脹幽靈[6:34]13.第十三章：AMixedEconomyFlounders混合經(jīng)濟(jì)的掙扎[8:36]14.第十四章：DeregulationTakesOff取消管制[7:29]15.第十五章：ThatcherTakestheHelm撒切爾掌權(quán)[3:50]16.第十六章：ReaganRidesIn里根上臺(tái)[8:17]17.第十七章：WarintheSouthAtlantic南大西洋上的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)[1:41]18.第十八章：TheHeightsGoUpforSale出售制高點(diǎn)[8:08]19.第十九章：TheBattleDecided?戰(zhàn)局已定？[3:26]Chapter1:Prologue[2:45]第一章:序言NARRATOR:Asthe20thcenturydrewtoitsclose,andournewcenturybegan,thebattleovertheworldeconomyintensified.Somepeoplefearedglobalizationandquestionedthebenefits.Otherswelcomedit.旁白:隨著二十世紀(jì)的立即結(jié)束和二十一世紀(jì)的專門快來臨，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也在不斷加劇。一些人可怕全球化的浪潮，對(duì)它能帶來的好處持懷疑態(tài)度，而另外一些人則持歡迎態(tài)度。RICHARDCHENEY,U.S.VicePresident:Millionsofpeopleadayarebetteroffthantheywouldhavebeenwithoutthosetradedevelopments,withoutglobalization.Andveryfewpeoplehavebeenharmedbyit.切尼，美國副總統(tǒng)：假如沒有貿(mào)易進(jìn)展和全球化，每天會(huì)有數(shù)百萬人的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況可不能象現(xiàn)在這么好。沒有什么人因?yàn)橘Q(mào)易進(jìn)展和全球化而受到損害。NARRATOR:AstheterribleeventsofSeptember11drovetheworlddeeperintoarecession,newquestionsemergedabouttheperilsofthenewworldeconomy.Canournowdeeplyinterconnectedworldsurmountaglobaldownturnandriseaboveothercrises?Andisglobalterrorismthedarksideofthepromiseofglobalization?旁白：9－11事件將世界經(jīng)濟(jì)推入到更嚴(yán)峻的衰退中，隨之出現(xiàn)有關(guān)新世界經(jīng)濟(jì)所面臨的危險(xiǎn)的新問題，緊密聯(lián)系的世界能否度過當(dāng)前全球性的低迷時(shí)期并從危機(jī)中恢復(fù)呢？而全球恐懼主義又是不是全球化浪潮的陰暗面呢？BILLCLINTON,U.S.President,1993-2001:Youcan'tgetawayfromthefactthatglobalizationmakesusinterdependent.Soit'snotanoptiontoshedit.Soisitgoingtobeonbalancepositiveornegative?克林頓，美國總統(tǒng)，1993-2001：你不能無視全球化使我們互相依靠那個(gè)事實(shí)，因此無法選擇擺脫它。那么總體來講它會(huì)是正面的依舊負(fù)面的呢？NARRATOR:Thisisthestoryofhowthenewglobaleconomywasborn,acentury-longbattleastowhichwouldcontrolthecommandingheightsoftheworld'seconomies--governmentsormarkets;thestoryofintellectualcombatoverwhicheconomicsystemwouldtrulybenefitmankind;thestoryofepicpoliticalstrugglestoimplantthoseideasonthenationsoftheworld.旁白：這是新的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)誕生的故事－這是一場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)達(dá)一個(gè)世紀(jì)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，它圍繞誰將操縱世界各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的制高點(diǎn)而展開－是政府依舊市場(chǎng)；是智力斗爭(zhēng)的故事－哪一種經(jīng)濟(jì)制度能夠真正有利于人類；是大規(guī)模政治斗爭(zhēng)的故事－通過這些斗爭(zhēng)將那些觀念灌輸給世界各國。JEFFREYSACHS,Professor,Harvard杰裴里.薩克斯(JeffreySachs)，哈佛大學(xué)教授：所發(fā)生的情況部分來講是二十世紀(jì)末的一場(chǎng)資本主義革命。市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)、資本主義制度成為世界絕大多數(shù)國家所奉行的模式。NARRATOR:Thiseconomicrevolutionhasdefinedthewealthandfateofnationsandwilldeterminethefutureoftheplanet.旁白：這場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)革命決定了各個(gè)國家的財(cái)寶和命運(yùn)，而且也將決定地球的以后。DANIELYERGIN,Author,Commanding丹尼爾.尤金（DANIELYERGIN），《制高點(diǎn)》的作者：技術(shù)變革和政治變革推動(dòng)著世界新經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)展，然而假如沒有思想革命的話，這些都可不能發(fā)生。NARRATOR:Tonight,thebattleofideasthatstilldividesourworld.旁白：今晚，思想斗爭(zhēng)仍然把我們的世界分割開來。Chapter2:TheOldOrderFails[8:11]第二章：舊秩序的失敗NARRATOR:Air-raidsirenssoundthealert.GermanbomberswillpoundanotherBritishcitytonight.旁白：空襲警報(bào)聽起來令人警覺。德國轟炸機(jī)今晚將轟炸另一個(gè)英國都市。Onscreentitle:Cambridge字幕標(biāo)題：劍橋大學(xué)，1940年Duringtheblitz,thetwomostimportanteconomistsoftheagesharedair-wardendutyontheroofofKing'sCollege,anEnglishgentlemanandanAustrianexile--personalfriends,butintellectualrivals.Howtheirbattleofideasstillshapesourlifeandsocietyisourstory.閃電戰(zhàn)期間，那個(gè)時(shí)代最重要的兩位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家共同擔(dān)任(空襲時(shí)檢查街道防空設(shè)施的)民防隊(duì)員。他們中一位是英國紳士，一位是被放逐的奧地利人－他們是朋友，但又是學(xué)術(shù)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。他們之間的思想斗爭(zhēng)至今仍然阻礙著我們的生活和社會(huì)，這確實(shí)是我們的故事。JohnMaynardKeyneshelpedthealliedgovernmentsdefendfreedombyplanningtheirwartimeeconomies.FriedrichvonHayekthoughtgovernmentinterferenceintheeconomywasathreattofreedom.凱恩斯通過為盟國政府規(guī)劃戰(zhàn)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)來關(guān)心他們捍衛(wèi)自由。哈耶克則認(rèn)為政府干預(yù)經(jīng)濟(jì)是對(duì)自由的威脅。DANIELYERGIN:Thedebateovermarketforces,whetheryouhaveeconomythat'sbaseduponpricesoronstate,planninghasbeenattheveryheartoftheeconomicbattlesofthelast100years.Fordecades,theideasofJohnMaynardKeynesdominatedtheeconomiesoftheWesternworld.丹尼爾.尤金：辯論涉及到各種市場(chǎng)力量。不管經(jīng)濟(jì)是建立在價(jià)格基礎(chǔ)上依舊建立在政府基礎(chǔ)上，打算始終是過去100年中經(jīng)濟(jì)斗爭(zhēng)的核心。幾十年來，凱恩斯的思想是主宰了西方世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。JOSEPHSTANISLAW,Co-Author,CommandingJOSEPHSTANISLAW,《制高點(diǎn)》的聯(lián)合作者：凱恩斯認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)產(chǎn)生過剩；困難時(shí)期市場(chǎng)不起作用。因此政府必須介入。哈耶克則認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)最終自會(huì)處理自身的問題。DANIELYERGIN:ItwasonlywhenHayekwasaveryoldmanthathisideasbegantoprevailandtheworldbegantochange.丹尼爾.尤金:直到哈耶克到了耄耋之年他的思想才開始流行，而世界也開始改變了。NARRATOR:Atthestartofthe20thcentury,HayekandKeyneshadwitnessedthefirstageofglobalization.Everydaylifewasbeingtransformedeverywhere.Technologieslikethetelegraphandthetelephonerevolutionizedcommunications.Steamshipsandrailwaysmadetheworldasmallerplace.Tensofmillionsmigratedwithouttheneedforpassports.旁白：二十世紀(jì)初，哈耶克和凱恩斯見證了第一次全球化浪潮。日常生活在各地都發(fā)生著變化。諸如電報(bào)、電話之類的科學(xué)技術(shù)帶來了一場(chǎng)通訊革命；汽船和鐵路使世界變得更??；數(shù)千萬人移民而不需要有護(hù)照。Keynesdescribedthisglobalmarketinwhichtradeflowedfreely.凱恩斯描述了全球市場(chǎng)的情況，在那個(gè)市場(chǎng)中貿(mào)易自由流通。OHNMAYNARDKEYNES:TheinhabitantofLondoncouldorderbytelephone,sippinghismorningtea,thevariousproductsofthewholeearth,andreasonablyexpecttheirearlydeliveryuponhisdoorstep.Militarismandimperialismofracialandculturalrivalrieswerelittlemorethantheamusementsofhisdailynewspaper.WhatanextraordinaryepisodeintheeconomicprogressofmanwasthatagewhichcametoanendinAugust1914.凱恩斯:倫敦居民能夠一邊喝著早茶，一邊通過電話來訂購世界各地的產(chǎn)品；還能夠想象著他們訂購的產(chǎn)品早早地放在自家門口臺(tái)階上。種族、文化之間敵對(duì)的軍國主義和帝國主義就如同每天看報(bào)的消遣一樣。人類經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)展史上一個(gè)特不的章節(jié)即在1914年8月那個(gè)時(shí)代走到了盡頭。NARRATOR:Hayeksummeditupmoresuccinctly.旁白：哈耶克的總結(jié)更加簡(jiǎn)潔。FRIEDRICHVONHAYEK:Wedidnotrealizehowfragileourcivilizationwas.哈耶克:我們沒有意識(shí)到我們的文明是多么脆弱。NARRATOR:ThemurderofanAustrianarchdukebyaterroristtriggeredaworldwar.Itwouldbealmost80yearsbeforetherewasonceagainatrulyglobaleconomy.旁白：一位奧地利大公被恐懼分子謀殺引發(fā)了一次世界大戰(zhàn)。將近80年以后，一個(gè)真正的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)才又再次出現(xiàn)。WorldWarIdestroyed20millionlives.Itlaidawholecontinenttowaste.TherewasbloodandcarnageamidstthebeautyoftheItalianAlps,wherethearmiesofAustriaandItalywerefighting.第一次世界大戰(zhàn)摧殘了兩千萬個(gè)生命，將整個(gè)歐洲大陸變成一片廢墟。意大利和奧地利軍隊(duì)在意大利的阿爾畢斯山激戰(zhàn)，鮮血和屠殺遮蔽了阿爾畢斯山的漂亮。FriedrichvonHayekservedintheAustrianartillery.Hewasonly17yearsold--stillaschoolboy.Thefightingwasferocious.Heexperiencedretreatanddefeat.哈耶克在奧地利炮兵部隊(duì)中服役，當(dāng)時(shí)他只有17歲－依舊一個(gè)學(xué)生。戰(zhàn)斗是殘酷的；他經(jīng)歷了撤退和戰(zhàn)敗。FRIEDRICHVONHAYEK:ThedecisiveinfluencewasreallyWorldWarI.It'sboundtodrawyourattentiontotheproblemsofpoliticalorganization.哈耶克：第一次世界大戰(zhàn)確實(shí)產(chǎn)生了決定性的阻礙，它必定將你的注意力吸引到政治組織的問題上來。NARRATOR:Hevowedtoworkforabetterworld.旁白：他宣誓要為建立一個(gè)更美好的世界而奮斗。DANIELYERGIN:Thefirstworldwarwasacataclysm.Peopleweredisillusioned.Peoplewerebitter.Theywerelookingforsomethingbetter.Socialism,communismseemedtopromisethatbetterworld.丹尼爾.尤金:第一次世界大戰(zhàn)無異于一次大地震，它使人們幡然醒悟并痛苦萬分。人們?cè)诓檎腋玫闹贫?，而社?huì)主義和共產(chǎn)主義大概為人們勾畫了一個(gè)更美好的世界。Onscreentitle:St.Petersburg,1917字幕標(biāo)題：圣彼得堡，1917年NARRATOR:Byoverthrowingtheoldorder,theRussianRevolutionaimedtodeliverthatbetterworld.InspiredbytheeconomictheoriesofKarlMarx,theBolshevikssoughttosmashcapitalism.Lenin,therevolution'sleader,urgedtheworkersoftheworldtouniteagainsttheglobaleconomy.Therevolutionmadetrade,commerce,andprivatepropertycriminalacts.Leninpromisedtoendtheeconomicexploitationofmanbyman.旁白：俄國革命推翻了舊秩序，它的目標(biāo)確實(shí)是建立一個(gè)更美好的世界。在馬克思經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的鼓舞下，布爾什維克尋求推翻資本主義。列寧－革命的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者－極力主張全世界的工人團(tuán)結(jié)起來反對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。革命使得貿(mào)易、商業(yè)和私人財(cái)產(chǎn)都成為犯罪活動(dòng)。列寧承諾要結(jié)束人對(duì)人的剝削。Onscreentitle:Cambridge字幕標(biāo)題：劍橋大學(xué)，1918年ThemanwhowasdestinedtobeHayek'sgreatintellectualrivalwasabrilliantyoungacademicatCambridgeUniversity.ButJohnMaynardKeyneswasmuchmorethanthat.Hebefriendedwritersandartists.Onepaintedthesemuralsforhim.HewasalsoafamiliarfigureintheCityof那個(gè)注定要成為哈耶克思想上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的年輕人是劍橋大學(xué)一位有才氣的學(xué)者，然而這遠(yuǎn)不是凱恩斯的全部。他與作家和藝術(shù)家交朋友，一個(gè)人還為他畫了一些壁畫。另外，他依舊倫敦城的一個(gè)家喻戶曉的人物，因?yàn)樗趥惗毓善笔袌?chǎng)上賺了大鈔票，全輸?shù)袅?，然后又賺了回來。Familiarwithpoliticiansandprimeministers,KeynesspentthefirstworldwaradvisingtheBritishgovernmentonhowtoorganizeitswartimeeconomy.Attheendofthewar,KeynesjoinedtheBritishpeacedelegationatVersaillesinFrance.ThevictoriousallieswanteddefeatedGermanytopaythecostsofthewarthroughwhatwerecalledreparations.因?yàn)閯P恩斯與政治家們和首相們專門熟悉，第一次世界大戰(zhàn)期間他向英國政府就應(yīng)如何組織戰(zhàn)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)提供顧問服務(wù)。戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)結(jié)束時(shí)，凱恩斯作為英國和平代表團(tuán)的成員前往法國凡爾賽。取得了勝利的盟國希望戰(zhàn)敗的德國支付賠款以賠償戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)損失。ROBERTSKIDELSKY,BiographerofJ.M.Keynes:AllthestatesmenofVersaillescouldthinkaboutwashowtosqueezemoneyoutofanalreadybankruptGermany.ROBERTSKIDELSKY,凱恩斯的傳記作者:在凡爾賽的政治家們想的差不多上如何從差不多一貧如洗的德國身上榨出鈔票來。GEOFFREYHARCOURT,ProfessorofEconomics,CambridgeGEOFFREYHARCOURT,劍橋大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授:凱恩斯認(rèn)為賠款完全超出了一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體所能承受的限度并將造成破壞性的社會(huì)、政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)后果。NARRATOR:Angryanddisgusted,Keynesresigned.BackinEngland,hewenttostaywithhisfriend,thepainterDuncanGrant.Thatsummer,GrantpaintedKeyneswritinghispropheticbook,TheEconomicConsequencesofthePeace.旁白：出于憤慨和厭惡，凱恩斯辭職了。回到英格蘭后，他與他的朋友－畫家DuncanGrant住在一起。那個(gè)夏天，Grant畫下了正在寫書的凱恩斯，那是一本預(yù)言式的書－《和平的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果》.JOHNMAYNARDKEYNES:IfwetaketheviewthatGermanymustbekeptimpoverishedandherchildrenstarvedandcrippled,vengeance,Idarepredict,willnotlimp.Nothingcandelaythatfinalwarthatwilldestroythecivilizationandprogressofourgeneration.凱恩斯:假如我們認(rèn)為必須讓德國特不貧困，讓德國兒童挨餓、殘廢，那么我敢預(yù)言復(fù)仇將可不能停止。沒有什么能夠延緩最終的大戰(zhàn)，而這戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)將摧毀人類文明和我們這一代的進(jìn)展進(jìn)程。Chapter3:CommunismontheHeights[6:16]第三章：制高點(diǎn)上的共產(chǎn)主義Onscreentitle:Vienna,1919字幕標(biāo)題：維也納，1919年NARRATOR:Austriahadlostthewaranditsempire.Viennawasacoldandhungrycity.Revolutionwasintheair.SocialistsandCommunistswerewinningthebattleforheartsandminds.Youngandidealistic,FriedrichvonHayekenrolledattheUniversityof旁白：奧匈帝國戰(zhàn)敗，帝國也解體了。維也納是一個(gè)嚴(yán)寒、饑餓的都市。革命專門流行。社會(huì)主義者和共產(chǎn)主義者贏得了人心。年輕而又理想主義的哈耶克進(jìn)入維也納大學(xué)學(xué)習(xí)。FRIEDRICHVONHAYEK:ItwasduringthewarthatImoreorlessdecidedtodoeconomics.Ireallygothooked.哈耶克：是在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中，我決定從事經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究。我確實(shí)被它抓住了。NARRATOR:Socialismseemedtopromiseamorejustsociety.AlbertZlabinger,aformerpupilanddiscipleofHayek:旁白：社會(huì)主義大概承諾了一個(gè)更公正的社會(huì)。AlbertZlabinger往常是哈耶克的學(xué)生和信徒。ALBERTZLABINGER,EconomistandPupilofHayek:Heopenlysaidthatheatonetimewasasocialistofthemildsort,whereconcernsforthepoorandconcernsforfairnessandequitywouldhelptodeterminegovernmentpolicy.AlbertZlabinger，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，哈耶克的學(xué)生：他公開講自己一度曾是和氣的社會(huì)主義者，主張對(duì)窮人，公平和平等的關(guān)注將會(huì)關(guān)心政府確定政策。NARRATOR:MuchofVienna'sintellectuallifetookplaceoutsidetheuniversity,inthecoffeehousesacrosstheRingstrasse.Therewereinformalseminarsforthosewholoveddiscussionandargument.HayekjoinedthecircleofapassionatelibertariancalledLudwigvonMises.VonMisesbelievedmarkets,likepeople,neededtobefreefromgovernmentmeddling.旁白：維也納的學(xué)術(shù)活動(dòng)多數(shù)是在大學(xué)以外的Ringstrasse對(duì)面的咖啡館進(jìn)行的。熱愛討論和爭(zhēng)論的人舉辦一些非正式的討論會(huì)。哈耶克加入到一位充滿熱情的自由主義者的圈子當(dāng)中，那個(gè)自由主義者確實(shí)是LudwigvonMises。VonMises認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)就像人一樣需要擺脫政府的干預(yù)。ALBERTZLABINGER:LudwigvonMiseswasthepreeminenteconomistoftheAustrianschool.ThedistinguishinghallmarkoftheAustrianschoolofeconomicthoughtisthatmarketsworkandgovernmentsdon't.ALBERTZLABINGER：LudwigvonMises是奧地利學(xué)派一位杰出的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。奧地利學(xué)派經(jīng)濟(jì)思想的顯著特點(diǎn)確實(shí)是他們認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)起作用而政府不起作用。NARRATOR:VonMisespredictedthatthenewSovietsocialisteconomywouldneverwork,preciselybecausethegovernmentcontrolledwagesandprices.旁白：VonMises預(yù)言正是由于政府操縱工資和價(jià)格，因此新的蘇聯(lián)的社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)永久可不能成功。DANIELYERGIN:WhatvonMisessaidisthatthegreatflawofsocialismisthatitdoesn'thaveafunctioningpricesystemtosendallthesignalstoconsumersandproducersastowhatsomethingisworth;thatthesepricesareattheveryheartofwhatmakesafunctioningeconomywork.丹尼爾.尤金：VonMises所講的是指社會(huì)主義的一大缺點(diǎn)是它沒有一個(gè)有效的價(jià)格體系來向消費(fèi)者和生產(chǎn)者傳遞所有表示什么東西值多少鈔票的信號(hào)；而這些價(jià)格則恰恰是使經(jīng)濟(jì)有效運(yùn)行的核心。Youcanthinkofthemastrafficsignals.Andifyoudon'thavethem,whatyougetisasystemthatdoesn'twork,oryougetchaos.你能夠把它們看作交通信號(hào)。假如沒有它們，那么你得到的是一個(gè)無效的或者混亂的體系。ALBERTZLABINGER:VonMisesarguedthatfreemarketsdoitbest--whyfoolwithanythingelse?ALBERTZLABINGER：VonMises爭(zhēng)論講自由市場(chǎng)最有效－什么緣故還要玩弄其他手段呢？Onscreentitle:Moscow,1922字幕標(biāo)題：莫斯科，1922年NARRATOR:InSovietRussia,itseemedasifvonMises'spredictionswerecomingtrue.Leninhadabolishedwhathesawasthechaosoffreemarkets.Thestatecontrolledtheeconomy.Wagesandpriceswerefixed.ButthegreatMarxistexperimentwasintrouble.Leninhadaneconomicdisasteronhishands.SovietRussiawasagrimplace,hauntedbycold,famine,hunger,anddeath.旁白：在蘇聯(lián)，VonMises的預(yù)言看起來看起來應(yīng)驗(yàn)了。列寧結(jié)束了他所認(rèn)為的自由市場(chǎng)混亂狀態(tài)。國家操縱了經(jīng)濟(jì)。工資和價(jià)格是固定的。然而偉大的馬克思主義的試驗(yàn)陷入了困境。列寧面臨一場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難。蘇聯(lián)成了一個(gè)嚴(yán)酷的地點(diǎn)，飽受嚴(yán)寒、饑餓、饑餓和死亡的折磨。DANIELYERGIN:Leninknewthatheneededadifferentkindofpolicy.andheinstitutedwhatwouldbecomeknownastheNewEconomicPolicy.Leninsaysfarmerscanselltheirowngoodsandowntheirownland.Hesaysthatsmallbusinessescanoperate,andyoustarttogetaneconomicrevival.Well,hiscomradesontheleftattackedhimviciouslyforsellingouttheprinciplesofBolshevismandMarxism.AndLenin,whobythistimehadalreadyhadastrokeandwasnotwell,neverthelesspulledhimselfupontheplatformforoneoftheverylasttimesinhislife,andhewasstilltheoldLenin.Hewasvitriolic;hewassarcastic.Hiscritics,hesaid,werefools,werestupid,becausethestate,thegovernment,theBolshevikswouldcontroltheoveralleconomy:steel,railroads,coal,theheavyindustries--whathecalledthe"commandingheights"oftheeconomy.丹尼爾.尤金：列寧明白他需要推行另一種不同的政策，因此他推行了聞名的“新經(jīng)濟(jì)政策”。列寧表示農(nóng)民能夠出售自己的產(chǎn)品和土地；小企業(yè)能夠開工經(jīng)營(yíng)。經(jīng)濟(jì)開始復(fù)蘇。然而左派嚴(yán)厲抨擊列寧，抨擊他背叛了布爾什維主義和馬克思主義的原則。列寧那是差不多中過一次風(fēng)，健康狀況不佳，然而他仍然進(jìn)行生命中最后幾次演講；他仍然是那個(gè)年邁的列寧，尖刻、諷刺。他講，他的批判者們差不多上愚蠢的傻子，因?yàn)閲?、政府和布爾什維克將操縱整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)：鋼鐵、鐵路、煤炭、重工業(yè)－他將這些稱之為經(jīng)濟(jì)的“制高點(diǎn)”。NARRATOR:WithinayearLeninwasdead.ThemournersatLenin'sfuneralbelievedthathistorywasontheirside,andinlessthan30years,notonlyRussia,butEasternEurope,旁白：不到一年列寧就去世了。在列寧的葬禮上，悼念者們堅(jiān)信他們是順應(yīng)歷史潮流的。在不到三十年的時(shí)刻里，不僅俄國，還有東歐和中國－占人類總數(shù)的三分之一還要多－都實(shí)行了社會(huì)主義，按照馬克思列寧主義的經(jīng)濟(jì)原理來進(jìn)展經(jīng)濟(jì)。Lenin'ssuccessorwouldtightentheCommunistParty'sirongriponthecommandingheightsoftheeconomy.JosephStalinintroducedcentralplanning.Underhim,theCommunistPartyplannedandmanagedeveryaspectoftheeconomy.Whilecommunismseemedtobeforgingahead,capitalismlookedtobedoomed.列寧的繼任者加強(qiáng)了在經(jīng)濟(jì)制高點(diǎn)行業(yè)的鐵腕統(tǒng)治。斯大林引入了中央打算。在他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，共產(chǎn)黨為經(jīng)濟(jì)生活的每個(gè)方面編制打算并進(jìn)行治理。社會(huì)大概正在向共產(chǎn)主義社會(huì)邁進(jìn)，而資本主義看起來注定要滅亡了。Chapter4:ACapitalistCollapse[8:48]第四章：資本主義的崩潰Onscreentitle:Vienna,1923字幕標(biāo)題：維也納，1923年NARRATOR:GermanyandAustriawerelivingwiththeeconomicconsequencesofthepeace.Forcedtopayunbearablewarreparations,thedefeatedgovernmentssimplyprintedmoremoney.Theresult:inflation,moreinflation,hyperinflation.Ittookabasketfullofpapermoneytogoshopping.旁白：德國和奧地利為和平付出了經(jīng)濟(jì)上的代價(jià)：戰(zhàn)敗了的政府完全依靠印刷更多的鈔票來支付難以承受的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)賠款，結(jié)果造成通貨膨脹，更嚴(yán)峻的通貨膨脹，直到惡性通貨膨脹。德國居民購物要帶上整整一籃子紙幣。KARLOTTOPOHL,President,GermanCentralBank,1980-1991:Yousawpeoplecarryingtheirmoneyonwheelsbecauseyouhadtopayforapieceofbreadbillionsofreichmarks.KARLOTTOPOHL，1980－1991年德國中央銀行總裁：你看到人們用車子來運(yùn)鈔票，因?yàn)樗麄儾坏貌换〝?shù)十億德國馬克萊買一片面包。NARRATOR:Hayek,whowasworkingatastatisticalresearchinstitute,needed200payraisesineightmonths.Moneywascheaperthanwallpaper.Million-marknoteslitstoves.Shoesthatcost12marksin1913soldfor32trillionmarksin1923.InHitler'sfavoritebeerkeller,aglassofbeercostabillionmarks.Hyperinflationwipedoutthesavingsofthemiddleclass.旁白：當(dāng)時(shí)正在一個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)研究機(jī)構(gòu)工作的哈耶克八個(gè)月內(nèi)加了八次薪。鈔票比墻紙還廉價(jià)；百萬馬克面值的鈔票被用來點(diǎn)爐子。1913年只值12馬克的鞋子到了1923年價(jià)格差不多漲到32萬億馬克。在希特勒喜愛的啤酒館，一杯啤酒要10億馬克。惡性通貨膨脹掏空了中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的口袋。KARLOTTOPOHL:AndthatwasoneofthereasonsforthesuccessoftheNazis,ofHitler.Theygotsupportfromthesepeoplewholosttheirfortunes.KARLOTTOPOHL：那依舊納粹黨人取得成功的一個(gè)緣故。他們得到了那些喪失了財(cái)寶的人的支持。NARRATOR:Hayekwouldalwaysseeinflationasanevilthatcorrodedsocietyandundermineddemocracy.Thefightagainstinflationbecameacornerstoneofhiseconomicphilosophy.旁白：哈耶克始終把通貨膨脹看成侵蝕社會(huì)和破壞民主的惡魔。反對(duì)通貨膨脹的斗爭(zhēng)成為他經(jīng)濟(jì)哲學(xué)的一個(gè)基礎(chǔ)。Onscreentitle:NewYork,TheRoaring1920s字幕標(biāo)題：紐約，繁榮的二十年代DANIELYERGIN:Duringthe1920s,whileEuropewascontinuingtosufferthewoundsofthefirstworldwar,inAmericancities,atleast,itwasboomtime.Americanswerespendingmoney.Theyweredancing.Theywerepartying.Theywerebuyingcars.Theywerebuyingbathtubgin.Andtheywerebuyingstock--lotsofstock.丹尼爾.尤金：二十年代，歐洲還沒有從第一次世界大戰(zhàn)造成的創(chuàng)傷中恢復(fù)過來，而美國，至少在都市中，則經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)繁榮時(shí)代。美國人花鈔票、跳舞、開派對(duì)、買車、買私燒錦酒，他們還買股票－大量的股票。Thestockmarket,theNewYorkStockExchange,hadbecomeanationalpastime.TheAmericanscouldn'tgetenoughofit.Andthefavoritestockofthedaywasinthesenewradiocompanies.RadiowasliketheInternetofthe1920s,anindustrythathadcomefromnowhere.AndthenumberoneglamourstockwasRCA,whichinjustafewyearswentfromadollarandahalfashareto$600ashare.Americanscouldn'tgetenoughofit.股票市場(chǎng)－紐約股票交易所－變成了國家娛樂場(chǎng)所。美國人永不滿足地追逐于其中。最受歡迎的股票是那些新的無線電廣播公司的股票。無線電就好比是二十年代的因特網(wǎng)－一個(gè)新興行業(yè)。最有魔力的股票是RCA，它在短短幾年中每股1.5美元漲到了每股600美元。美國人仍不滿足。NARRATOR:Itwasaclassicstockmarketbubble.Then,onBlackThursday,October24,1929,thebubbleburst.Pricesplunged.Thedownwardspiralprovedunstoppable.Eighthoursafterthemarkethadclosed,thetickertapemachineswerestilltappingoutthebadnews.ThestockmarketcrashstartedAmerica'sslideintodespair.旁白：這是典型的股票市場(chǎng)泡沫。終于，1929年的10月24日－黑色星期四，泡沫破滅了。股價(jià)猛跌，而且下瀉之勢(shì)無法阻止。股票市場(chǎng)關(guān)閉八個(gè)小時(shí)之后，仍然不斷有壞消息傳出。從股票市場(chǎng)崩潰開始，美國不知不覺陷入了無望的境地。SPENCERECCLES,SaltLakeCityBanker:Duringthe'30shere,itwasacompleteanduttercollapsefromthepeople'spointofview.Itwasdespair.Asvaluesandpricesspiraledeveronward,downward,itleftthemwithnoabilitytoearn,noabilitytorepay,noabilitytospend,noabilitytoconsume.Everythingwentdown.Thefarmimplementseller,theclothingstore,themerchant--everythingspiraleddownward,andofcoursewithitwentthebanks.SPENCERECCLES，鹽湖城銀行家：在人們看來，三十年代是完全、完全的崩潰，令人無望。由于價(jià)格隨時(shí)刻而不斷螺旋下降，人們沒有能力賺鈔票，沒有能力還債，沒有能力花鈔票，也沒有能力消費(fèi)。破產(chǎn)一樁接一樁－農(nóng)場(chǎng)用具銷售者、服裝店、店主。所有東西的價(jià)格都在不斷下降。因此，與此一致，銀行也紛紛破產(chǎn)。NARRATOR:Peoplepanicked.Theyrushedtowithdrawtheirhard-earnedsavings.旁白：人們驚惶失措，一窩蜂地去擠兌他們辛苦賺來的積蓄。KENNETHRANDALL,ChairmanoftheFederalDepositInsuranceCorporation,1964-1970:Arunonabankmeanslinesthroughthelobbyandoutthefrontdooranddownaroundtheblock,peoplewaitingdayandnighttogetuptoseeiftheycouldwithdrawtheircash.KENNETHRANDALL，1964－1970年美國聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司主席：擠兌意味著隊(duì)伍從大廳排到門外，同時(shí)一直連續(xù)到街區(qū)，人們整天等在那兒看能不能把現(xiàn)金提走。NARRATOR:Themillionsthatcouldnotlosteverything.旁白：數(shù)百萬人再也不能失去任何東西。KENNETHRANDALL:Ifyoulookattheperiodoftimefrom'29on,abouthalfthebanksintheUnitedStatesclosed.KENNETHRANDALL:那個(gè)時(shí)期從1929年開始，大約有一半的美國銀行倒閉。NARRATOR:Thegovernmentfailedtohaltthedownwardspiral.Infact,itmadethingsworse.旁白：政府沒能成功地阻止下瀉之勢(shì)。事實(shí)上，它使情況變得更糟糕。NEWSREELNARRATOR:Privateconstructionvirtuallyceases.Millsandfactoriesshutdown.Railroadscometoavirtualstandstill.MillionsofAmericans--men,women,children--waitinthecoldonbreadlines,insoupkitchens.ThreemillionAmericansareex-wageearners,unemployed,andtheranksoftheunemployedaretosoarto15million.新聞片旁白：私人建筑業(yè)事實(shí)上差不多中止；工廠停產(chǎn)；鐵路運(yùn)輸陷入事實(shí)上的停頓狀態(tài)。成百萬美國人－男人、婦女和小孩－在寒風(fēng)中等待分配救濟(jì)品。三百萬人失業(yè)，那個(gè)數(shù)字專門快飛漲到一千五百萬。Onscreentitle:Europe,1931字幕標(biāo)題：歐洲，1931年NARRATOR:Bankscollapsed.Industrygroundtoastop.Millionswereoutofwork.InBritain,workingmen,manyofthemwarveterans,marchedthelengthofthecountrytopetitionthegovernmentforthesimple"righttowork."InItaly,Spain,andGermany,theymarchedtoadifferentdrum.Withthefailureofcapitalism,fascismcastitsshadoweverwider.JohnMaynardKeynessawhisnightmarecomingtrue.旁白：銀行倒閉；工廠停工；上百萬人失業(yè)。工人－他們中的許多人是參加過戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的老兵－在全國范圍內(nèi)進(jìn)行示威游行，向政府要求“工作的權(quán)力”。而意大利、西班牙和德國的游行則進(jìn)展到另一種不同的結(jié)果。隨著資本主義的失敗，法西斯主義擴(kuò)大了它的阻礙。JohnMaynardKeynes看到他的夢(mèng)魘正在變成事實(shí)。InCambridge,KeynessetouttosavecapitalismfromitselfbywritingabookaboutwhatcausedtheGreatDepressionandwhattodoaboutit.Heaimedtorewritetherulesofeconomics,toseeacountry'seconomyasawhole,asamachinethatcouldbemanaged.在劍橋，凱恩斯通過撰寫一部關(guān)于大蕭條的緣故及應(yīng)該如何應(yīng)付它的著作開始從資本主義制度本身尋求挽救之道。ROBERTSKIDELSKY:Keyneswastherealinventorofmacroeconomics.Conceptswetakeforgrantedtoday,likegrossdomesticproduct,thelevelofunemployment,therateofinflation,alltodowithgeneralfeaturesoftheeconomy,wereinventedbyhim.ROBERTSKIDELSKY：凱恩斯是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的真正創(chuàng)始人。我們今天認(rèn)為理所因此的一些概念，例如國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、失業(yè)水平、通貨膨脹率等所有用來刻畫經(jīng)濟(jì)總體特性的指標(biāo)，差不多上他提出來的。GEOFFREYHARCOURT:Hewaswritingabookwhichhethoughtwouldrevolutionizethewaywethoughtabouteconomicsystems.Itwouldalsogiveusthemeanstomakesuretheyoperatedbetter.GEOFFREYHARCOURT：他認(rèn)為他正在撰寫的這部著作將使我們考慮經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的方式發(fā)生革命性的變化。它還將告訴我們?nèi)绾巫尳?jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行得更好。ROBERTSKIDELSKY:Itwaswrittenagainstthebackgroundofnotonlythecollapseoftheworldeconomy,butthepotentialcollapseofdemocraticgovernment.HitlerbecamechancellorofGermanyin1933.Democracyseemedtobelosingground,andwithdemocracy,thesystemofliberty.SoKeyneshadtoproduceananswertotheGreatDepression,ordemocracywouldbeswampedbytotalitarianism.ROBERTSKIDELSKY：這部著作的寫作背景不僅是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的崩潰，還有潛在的民主政府垮臺(tái)的危機(jī)。1933年希特勒成為德國總理。民主大概正在退卻；與民主一樣的還有自由體制。因此凱恩斯必須為大蕭條找到一個(gè)答案，否則民主就會(huì)被極權(quán)主義吞沒。Chapter5:GlobalDepression[5:26]第五章：全球性的蕭條Onscreentitle:Washington,字幕標(biāo)題：華盛頓，哥倫比亞特區(qū)，1933年NARRATOR:ThenewAmericanpresident,FranklinDelanoRoosevelt,wasstaringeconomicdisasterintheface.Hiswife,Eleanor,describedInaugurationDayas"verysolemn,andalittleterrifying."旁白：新的美國總統(tǒng)－FranklinDelanoRoosevelt－面對(duì)這場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難表現(xiàn)出色。他的夫人－Eleanor－形容就職典禮日“特不莊嚴(yán)，有點(diǎn)令人生畏”。FRANKLINDELANOROOSEVELT,U.S.President:Thisgreatnationwillendureasithasendured,willreviveandwillprosper.IshallasktheCongressfortheoneremaininginstrumenttomeetthecrisis:broadexecutivepower.羅斯福，美國總統(tǒng)：我們偉大的國家將象過去一樣堅(jiān)韌堅(jiān)持下去，將會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)興和繁榮。我將要求國會(huì)給予我廣泛的行政權(quán)利，這是剩下來的能夠應(yīng)付危機(jī)的手段。NARRATOR:Roosevelt'svoiceofconfidenceralliedthenation.旁白：羅斯福自信的聲音令整個(gè)國家為之振奮。Hethenembarkedonawhirlwindprogramofreform.然后他著手開始進(jìn)行旋風(fēng)式的改革打算。DANIELYERGIN:ForRooseveltandtheNewDeal,itwasawar.TheywereatwarwiththeGreatDepression,andtheyrespondedwithfreneticactivity,reliefprogramsfortheunemployed,forthehungry;programstogetpeoplebacktowork.Theybuiltdamsandhighwaysandnationalparks.Atthesametimetheyinstitutedaprogramofregulatingcapitalisminawaythathadneverbeendonebefore,inordertoprotectpeoplefromwhattheysawastherecklessnessoftheunfetteredmarket.丹尼爾.尤金：對(duì)羅斯福和他的新政來講，這是一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。他們?cè)诤痛笫挆l作戰(zhàn)，以狂烈的行動(dòng)作為回應(yīng)－救濟(jì)失業(yè)者和挨餓者，讓人們重新回到工作崗位上。他們修建水壩、公路和國家公園。同時(shí)，他們制定了一項(xiàng)打算，該打算將往常所未有的方式對(duì)資本主義進(jìn)行調(diào)控，以愛護(hù)人們免受自由市場(chǎng)無序進(jìn)展所帶來的損害。NARRATOR:Privately,Rooseveltfearedthemarketsystemhadfailed,sohecreatedanentirealphabetofnewagenciestoregulatebanks,thestockmarket,capitalismitself.NewheadquartersbuiltfortheInterstateCommerceCommissioncelebratedgovernmentregulation,whichreinedinmarketforcesandcurbedcapitalism.UndertheNewDeal,industrybecamesubjecttoahostofnewrulesandregulations.旁白：私下里，羅斯福對(duì)市場(chǎng)體體制的失敗感到恐懼，因此他創(chuàng)立了一整套新機(jī)構(gòu)來治理銀行、股票市場(chǎng)和資本主義制度本身。為國內(nèi)運(yùn)輸治理委員會(huì)修建的新總部建成，慶祝方式確實(shí)是公布政府規(guī)章。新政實(shí)施后，企業(yè)要受到一系列新規(guī)則和規(guī)章制度的約束。DANIELYERGIN:Andtheairlineindustrywasaverygoodexampleofthat.Youhadpeoplegointothisbusiness,beverycompetitive,they'dgobankrupt.Newpeoplewouldcomein,theywouldgobankrupt.Itwasveryunstable,sotheNewDealsteppedinandsaid,"We'regoingtostabilizethisindustry.We'regoingtosetthepricesthatyoucanchargefortickets.We'regoingtotellyouwhatroutesyoucanfly."Andwiththatsystemtheyeliminatedtheseveryviciouscyclesofboomandbustintheaviationindustry,andinasense,thatwaswhattheywereaimingtodothroughouttheAmericaneconomy.丹尼爾.尤金：航空業(yè)是一個(gè)專門好的例子。企業(yè)進(jìn)入那個(gè)行業(yè)，然后激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，然后破產(chǎn)；新的企業(yè)再進(jìn)來，然后又破產(chǎn)；整個(gè)行業(yè)特不不穩(wěn)定。因此新政插手那個(gè)行業(yè)，“我們要穩(wěn)定那個(gè)行業(yè)，設(shè)定機(jī)票價(jià)格，規(guī)定各公司能夠經(jīng)營(yíng)的航線?！蓖ㄟ^這種方法，他們消除了航空業(yè)中繁榮－破產(chǎn)的惡性循環(huán)。在某種意義上，這也是他們對(duì)整個(gè)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的目標(biāo)。Onscreentitle:Cambridge字幕標(biāo)題：劍橋大學(xué)，1936年NARRATOR:In1936JohnMaynardKeynesfinallypublishedhisGeneralTheory,abrilliantanalysisofhowtofighttheDepression.Byshowinggovernmentsthatitwaspossibletomanagetheireconomies,Keynesmadehimselfthemostinfluentialeconomistoftheage.旁白：1936年，凱恩斯的《通論》終于出版了，這本書對(duì)如何與蕭條作斗爭(zhēng)進(jìn)行了才華橫溢的分析。凱恩斯告訴各國政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行治理是可能的，這使他成為那個(gè)時(shí)代最有阻礙的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。ROBERTSKIDELSKY:Keynes'ssolutiontounemploymentwasforthegovernmenttospendthemoneytorestoreandmaintainfullemployment.ROBERTSKIDELSKY：凱恩斯解決失業(yè)問題的方案是擴(kuò)大政府開支以恢復(fù)和保持充分就業(yè)。NARRATOR:Governments,saidKeynes,shouldspendagainstthewind.Ingoodtimestheyshouldreducetheirspendingandbuildsurpluses;inbadtimes,liketheGreatDepression,theyshouldstepupspending,rundeficits,andputpurchasingpowerintothehandsofworkingpeople.旁白：凱恩斯認(rèn)為政府開支應(yīng)該逆風(fēng)而行。繁榮時(shí)期政府應(yīng)該削減支出和進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)備；困難時(shí)期，比如大蕭條時(shí)期，政府應(yīng)該逐步增加支出，實(shí)行赤字財(cái)政，讓勞動(dòng)者有購買力。ROBERTSKIDELSKY:Hegavepeoplehopethatunemploymentcouldbecuredwithoutconcentrationcamps.ROBERTSKIDELSKY：他給了人們希望－失業(yè)問題是能夠克服的。NARRATOR:HarvardUniversitybecameanintellectualbridgeheadforKeynesinAmerica.JohnKennethGalbraithwasoneofKeynes'sleadingapostles.旁白：哈佛大學(xué)成為凱恩斯在美國的學(xué)術(shù)橋頭堡。JohnKennethGalbraith是他最要緊的追隨者。JOHNKENNETHGALBRAITH,ProfessorEmeritus,HarvardUniversity:I'vesaidmanytimesIthinkhadsomething,maybequiteabit,todowithbringingKeynesacrosstheAtlantic.IcamebacktofindawholegroupofpeopleherewhohadalsoreadTheGeneralTheory,andthiswasabreathofhopeandoptimism.JOHNKENNETHGALBRAITH，哈佛大學(xué)榮譽(yù)退休教授：我曾多次講過我認(rèn)為把凱恩斯主義帶到大西洋彼岸這件事與我有專門大的關(guān)系。我回來后發(fā)覺這兒有許許多多人差不多看過《通論》，這是充滿希望和樂觀主義的。NARRATOR:Keynes'sideastrickleddownfromHarvardtoWashington,turningthefederalgovernment'sconventionaleconomicpoliciesupsidedown.旁白：凱恩斯的思想從哈佛傳到華盛頓，完全改變了聯(lián)邦政府傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。JOHNKENNETHGALBRAITH:Youresistedconservativefinance,borrowedmoney,andhiredpeopleacrossthecountry,rescuingthemfromunemployment.Thatwasthebasicessential--andthatyoudidn'tworryaboutaccumulatingdebt,or,moreprecisely,youworriedaboutit,butdiditanyway.JOHNKENNETHGALBRAITH：你反對(duì)保守的財(cái)政政策，借鈔票來雇傭全國各地的人工作，使他們不致失業(yè)。這是差不多要點(diǎn)，而你不擔(dān)心負(fù)債的問題，或者更確切地講，你擔(dān)心負(fù)債問題，但不管如何你依舊要如此做。NARRATOR:Keynes'sideasbegantogainground.講述者：凱恩斯的思想開始普及。Chapter6:WorldwideWar[7:00]第六章：世界大戰(zhàn)Onscreentitle:WorldWarII,1941字幕標(biāo)題：第二次世界大戰(zhàn)，1941年NARRATOR:IttookaworldwarforKeynesianismtobecomegovernmentpolicy.AstheU.S.governmentborrowedmoneyandpumpeditintothewareffort,highunemploymentended,andtheDepressiondisappeared.旁白：通過世界大戰(zhàn)，凱恩斯理論變成了政府政策。隨著美國政府大舉借債并將資金用于備戰(zhàn)