CFA一級培訓(xùn)項(xiàng)F報(bào)班課 WeChat@工作：金程教育金融講授課程：CFA一、二、三級；AP經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)課參與：曾參與了金融分析師系列、金程教育CFA課堂筆記、CFA沖刺寶典、CFA中文NOTES等公開物及內(nèi)部物。并參與翻譯CFA參考書《企業(yè)》，《國際財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告分析》等書籍。2-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@TopicWeightingsinCFALevelSessionSession StudySession Ethics&Professional StudyStudySession2- StudySession4-StudySession6-FinancialReportingStudySession10-Corporate7StudySessionPortfolioManagementandWealth7StudySession13-EquityStudySession15- StudySession5StudySession43-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@TheTimeValueDiscountedCashFlowStatisticalConceptsandProbabilitySamplingandHypothesis 4-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@Timetative5-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@TimeTimeRequiredinterestrateonaNPVand6-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@TimeValueofRequiredrateofreturnaffectedbythesupplyanddemandoffundsinthethereturnthatinvestorsandsaversrequiretogetthemtowillinglylendtheirfunds;usuallyforparticularDiscountratetheinterestrateweusetodiscountpaymentstobemadeintheusuallyusedinterchangeablywiththeinterestOpportunitycostalsounderstoodasaformofinterestrate.Itisthevaluethatinvestorsforgobychoosingaparticularcourseofaction.7-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@TimeValueofposerequiredrateofNominalrisk-freerate=realrisk-freerate+expectedinflationRequiredinterestrateonasecurity=nominalrisk-freerate+defaultriskpremium+liquidityriskpremium+maturityriskpremium8-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@TimeValueofEAR

rEAR=(1+periodic mEAR=(1+periodic m

那么如果是semi,m=2如果是quarterly如果是連續(xù)復(fù)利，公式則變?yōu)镋AReannualint-ThegreaterthecompoundingthegreatertheEARwillbeincomparisontothestatedthegreaterthedifferencebetweenEARandthestated9-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@TimeValueofFuturevalue(FV):Amounttowhichinvestmentgrowsafteroneormorecompoundingperiods.Presentvalue(PV):CurrentvalueofsomefuturecashAnnuities:isastreamofequalcashflowsthatoccursatequalintervalsoveragivenperiodN=numberofI/Y=interestrateperPV=presentPMT=amountofeachperiodicFV=future10-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@TimeValueofAnexampleofordinaryannuities（后付年金Example:What’stheFVofanordinaryannuitythatpays100peryearattheendofeachofthenext3years,giventhediscountrateis10%Solutions:enterrelevantdataforN=3,I/Y=10,PMT=-100,PV=0,11-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@TimeValueofAboutanannuitydue（先付年金Definition:anannuitywheretheannuitypaymentsoccuratthebeginningofeachcompoundingperiod.Measure1:putthecalculatorintheBGNmodeandinputMeasure2:treatasanordinaryannuityandsimplymultipleresultingPVby12-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@Example:TimeValueofAcompanyplanstoborrow$50,000forfiveyears.Thecompany’sbankwilllendthemoneyatarateof9%andrequiresthattheloanbepaidoffinfiveequalend-of-yearpayments.Calculatetheamountofthepaymentthatthecompanymustmakeinordertofullyamortizethisloaninfiveyears.N=5,I/Y=9,PV=50,000,FV=0;CPT:PMT=-Usingtheloandescribedintheprecedingexample,determinethepaymentamountifthebankrequiresthecompanytomakequarterlyN=5×4=20,I/Y=9/4=2.25,PV=50,000,FV=0;CPT:PMT=-13-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@ N=20*12=240,I/Y=6.2/12,PV=700,000,CPTPMT=-][14-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@Example:問備BGN模式：([2NDBGN2NDSET2NDN=20,I/Y=4,PMT=100,000CPTPV=-15-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@ 利率為4%，現(xiàn)在需要為女兒準(zhǔn)備多少教育金？BGN模式：([2NDBGN2ND]SET2NDN=4,I/Y=4,PMT=50,000,CPTPV=-16-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@TimeValueofAboutDefinition:Aperpetuityisafinancialinstrumentsthatpaysafixedamountofmoneyatsetintervalsoveraninfiniteperiodoftime. 0PV1=A/(1+r)PV2=A/(1+r)2PV3=A/(1+r)3PV4=

PV

(1r)PVA

1 rPVAPVr

17-

1 (1F報(bào)班課程WeChat@NP NP CF0 (1rCF (1r)2CF... (1r)CFtN (1rCFNPV0CF0 (1IRR)12(1... (1tN (1NetPresentValueInternalRateofReturnWhenNPV=0,thediscount18-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@Example:NPVand花了10產(chǎn)品在這帶來的收益為：3萬、2萬、2萬、3萬、19-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@ Example:NPVand[CF][2ND][CLR[↓]3[↓][↓]2[↓][↓]2[↓][↓]3[↓][↓]4[NPV]5[↓][IRR]20-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@DiscountedCashFlowDefinition:theholdingperiodreturnissimplythepercentagechangethevalueofaninvestmentovertheperioditis21-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@AstockispurchasedAstockispurchasedfor$30andissoldfor$33sixmonthsduringwhichtimeitpaid$0.50individends.Calculatetheholdingperiodreturn.HPRP1P0CF133300.522-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketReturntative23-

F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketStatisticalBasicTypesofmeasurementFrequencyMeasuresofcentralMeasuresof24-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketDescriptiveDescriptivestatisticsisthestudyofhowdatacanbeeffectivelytodescribetheimportantaspectsoflargedataByconsolidatingamassofnumericaldetails,descriptivestatisticsdataintoInferentialMakeforecasts,estimates,orjudgmentsaboutalargesetofdataonthebasisofthestatisticalcharacteristicsofasmallerset(asample).25-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketDefinitionofPopulation:Apopulationisdefinedasallmembersofaspecifiedgroup.AnydescriptivemeasureofapopulationcharacteristiciscalledDefinitionofSample:AsampleisasubsetofaAsamplestatistic(orstatistic)isatycomputedfromorusedtodescribeasample.26-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketTypesofmeasurementNominalDistinguishingtwodifferentthings,noorder,onlyhasExample:assigningthenumber1toamunicipalbondfund,number2toacorporatebondOrdinalscales(>,Makingthingsinorder,butthedifferencearenotExample:therankingof1,000smallcapgrowthstocksbyperformancemaybedonebyassigningthenumber1tothe100bestperformingstocksIntervalscales(>,<,+,-SubtractisExample:Ratioscales(>,<,+,-,*,WithoriginalExample:money,ifyouhavezerodollars,youhavenopurchasingpower,butifyouhave$4.00,youhavetwiceasmuchpurchasingpowerasawith$2.00.27-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketRelativeTherelativefrequencyiscalculatedbydividingtheabsoluteofeachturnintervalbythetotalnumberofFrequencyAfrequencydistributionisatabularpresentationofstatisticaldatathataidstheysisoflargedatasets.Cumulativefrequency/CumulativeRelativeCouldbecalculatedbysummingtheabsoluteorrelativestartingatthelowestintervalandprogressingthroughthe28-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketConstructingaFrequencyReal(Inflation-Adjusted)EquityReturns:NineteenMajorEquityArithmeticMeanArithmeticMeanNewSouthUnitedUnited29-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketConstructingaFrequencyFrequencyDistributionofAverageRealEquityFrequency(%)5.0to336.0to477.0to58.0to49.0to330-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketMeasuresofcentraltendency:mode,median,31-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketMeasuresofcentraltendency:mode,median,Thearithmetic

iiX nTheweighted

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Forsample:s2 n33-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketPositive(right)Negative(left)AdistributionthatisnotsymmetricaliscalledPositiveskewed：Mode<median<mean,havingarightfatNegativeskewed：Mode>media>mean,havingaleftfat34-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarketKurtosisisthestatisticalmeasure lsuswhenadistributionisorlesspeakedthananormalLeptokurticvs.AdistributionthatismorepeakedthannormaliscalledAdistributionthatislesspeakedthannormaliscalledSample35-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@StatisticalConceptsandMarket36-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@ tative37-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@ProbabilityTwodefiningpropertiesofMultiplicationruleandAdditionDependentandindependentExpected38-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@F報(bào)F報(bào)班課 WeChat@40-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@F報(bào)班F報(bào)班課 WeChat@ProbabilityBasicRandomvariableisuncertain ty/number.Thereturnonariskyassetisanexampleofarandomvariable.eisanobservedvalueofarandomAneventisaspecifiedset Mutuallyexclusiveevents—cannotbothhappenatthesameExhaustiveevents—includeall TwoDefiningPropertiesofTheprobabilityofanyeventEisanumberbetween0and1:0≤P(E)≤Thesumoftheprobabilitiesofanysetofmutuallyexclusiveexhaustiveeventsequals1:P(E1)+P(E2)+……+42-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@ProbabilityUnconditionalProbability(marginalprobability):Supposethequestionis“Whatistheprobabilitythatthestockearnsareturnabovetherisk-freerate(eventA)?”TheanswerisanunconditionalprobabilitythatcanbeviewedastheratiooftwoConditionalprobability:Supposewewanttoknowtheprobabilitythatthestockearnsareturnabovetherisk-freerate(eventA),giventhatthestockearnsapositivereturn(eventB).Withthewords“giventhat,”wearerestrictingreturnstothoselargerthan0percent—anewelementincontrasttothequestionthatbroughtforthanunconditionalprobability.Theconditionalprobabilityiscalculatedastheratiooftwoties.43-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@ProbabilityJointprobability:MultiplicationThejointprobabilityofAandBcanbeIfAandBaremutuallyexclusivethen:ProbabilitythatatleastoneoftwoeventswillAdditionrule:GiveneventsAandB,theprobabilitythatAorBoccurs,orbothoccur,isequaltotheprobabilitythatAoccurs,plustheprobabilitythatBoccurs,minustheprobabilitythatbothAandBoccur.P(AorB)=P(A)+P(B)-IfAandBaremutuallyexclusiveevents,then:P(AorB)=P(A)+P(B)44-

F報(bào)班課 WeChat@ProbabilityIndependentDefinitionofIndependentEvents:TwoeventsAandBareifandonlyifP(A|B)=P(A)or,equivalently,P(B|A)=MultiplicationRuleforIndependentEvents.Whentwoeventsareindependent,thejointprobabilityofAandBequalstheproductoftheindividualprobabilitiesofAandB:P(AB)=P(A)×P(B)IndependenceandMutuallyExclusivearequiteIfexclusive,mustnotCauseexclusivemeansifAoccur,Bcannotoccur,Ainfluents45-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@ProbabilityExpected E(X)P(XiE(X)xi*P(xi)x1*P(x1)x2*P(x2)L

xn*P(xn

Pi(XiEXN2N246-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@Common tative47-F報(bào)班課 WeChat@CommonProbabilityCommonProbabilityPropertiesofdiscretedistributionandcontinuousDiscreteuniformContinuousuniformNormalLognormal48-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@CommonProbabilityDescribetheprobabilitiesofallthe esforaDiscreteandcontinuousrandomDiscreterandomvariables:thenumberofpossible escanbecounted,andforeachpossible e,thereisameasurableandpositiveprobability.Continuousvariables:thenumberof esisinfinite,iflowerandupperboundsP(x)=0eventhoughxcanP49-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@ Fordiscreterandom0≤p(x)≤Probabilitydensityfunction(p.d.f):ForcontinuousrandomvariableCumulativeprobabilityfunction(c.p.f):50-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@CommonProbabilityProbabilitydensityF(-F(--051-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@DiscreteAdiscreteuniformrandomvariableisoneforwhichtheprobabilitiesforallpossible esforadiscreterandomvariableareequal.Forexample,considerthediscreteuniformprobabilitydistributiondefinedasX={1,2,3,4,5},p(x)=0.2.Here,theprobabilityforeach eisequalto0.2[i.e.,52-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@ContinuousUniformisdefinedoverarangethatspansbetweensomelowerlimit,a,andupperlimit,b,whichserveastheparametersofthedistribution.PropertiesofContinuousuniformForalla≤x1<x2P(X<aorX>b)=P(x1Xx2)(x2x1)/(ba)53-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@54-F報(bào)班課程WeChat@CommonProbabilityTheshapeofthedensityxX~N(μ,Symmetricaldistribution:skewness=0;Thetailsgetthinandgotozerobutextendinfiniy,asympotic(漸近55-CFA報(bào)班課 WeChat@CommonProbabilityTheconfidence68%confidenceintervalis[,90%confidenceintervalis[1.65,1.6595%confidenceintervalis[1.96,1.9699%confidenceintervalis[2.58,2.58u CFA報(bào)班課程WeChat@CommonProbabilityStandardnormalN(0,1)orStandardization:ifX~N(μ,σ2),Z-P(Z>z)=1

ZX

~57-CFA報(bào)班課程WeChat@58-CFA報(bào)班課程WeChat@CommonProbabilityDefinition:IflnXisnormal,thenXislognormal,whichisusedtothepriceofRightBoundedfrombelowbyzero,soitisusefulformodelingasset 1059-CFA報(bào)班課 WeChat@Samplingandtative60-CFA報(bào)班課 WeChat@SamplingandSamplingandSimplerandomandstratifiedrandomTime-seriesdataandcross-sectionalPointestimateandIntervalFivekindsof61-CFA報(bào)班課程WeChat@SamplingandSamplingandSimplerandomAsimplerandomsampleisasubsetofalargerpopulationcreatedinsuchawaythateachelementofthepopulationhasanequalprobabilityofbeingselectedtothesubset.TheprocedureofdrawingasampletosatisfythedefinitionofsimplerandomsampleiscalledsimplerandomStratifiedrandomInstratifiedrandomsampling,thepopulationisdividedintosubpopulations(strata)basedononeormoreclassificationcriteria.Simplerandomsamplesarethendrawnfromeachstratuminsizesproportionaltotherelativesizeofeachstratuminthepopulation.Thesesamplesarethenpooledtoformastratifiedrandomsample.Samplingerroristhedifferencebetweentheobservedvalueofaandthetyitisintendedto62-CFA報(bào)班課 WeChat@SamplingandTime-seriesconsistofobservationstakenoveraperiodoftimeatspecificandequallyspacedtimeintervals.Cross-sectionalasampleofobservationstakenatasinglepointinTime-seriesCross-sectionalacollectionofdatarecordedoverperiodofacollectionofdatatakenatapointof63-CFA報(bào)班課 WeChat@SamplingandPointthestatistic,computedfromsampleinformation,whichisusedtoestimatethepopulationparameterConfidenceintervalarangeofvaluesconstructedfromsampledatasotheparameterwithinthatrangeataspecified64-CFA報(bào)班課 WeChat@SamplingandData-miningReferstoresultswherethestatisticalsignificanceofthepatternoverestimatedbecausetheresultswerefoundthroughdataSampleselectionSomedataissystematicallyexcludedfromtheysis,usuallybecausethelackofSurvivorshipUsuallyderivesfromsampleselectionforonlytheexistingportfolioareLook-aheadOccurswhenastudytestsarelationshipusingsampledatathatwasnotavailableonthetestTime-periodTimeperiodoverwhichthedataisgatherediseithertooshortortoolong.Ifthetimeperiodistooshort,researchresultsmayreflectphenomenaspecifictothattimeperiod,orperhapsevendatamining.65-CFA報(bào)班課程WeChat@ 66-CFA報(bào)班課 WeChat@DonotDonotHypothesisThestepsofhypothesisStep Step StepStatenullStatenullandIdentifytheSelectalevelStep SteparriveatFormulatedecision67-CFA報(bào)班課程WeChat@68-CFA報(bào)班課 WeChat@PrinciplesoftechnicalAssumptionsoftechnicalThedifferencesamongtechnicians,fundamentalistsandEfficientAdvantagesanddisadvantagesoftechnical69-CFA報(bào)班課程WeChat@ PricesaredeterminedbytheinteractionofsupplyandOnlyparticipantswhoactuallytradeaffectprices,andbetter-informedparticipantstendtotradeingreatervolume.Priceandvolumereflec