APRIL2023

SevenCriticalTechnologiesforWinningtheNextWar

AREPORTOFTHECSISINTERNATIONALSECURITYPROGRAM

AUTHORS

EmilyHarding

HarshanaGhoorhoo

APRIL2023

SevenCriticalTechnologiesforWinningtheNextWar

AREPORTOFTHECSISINTERNATIONALSECURITYPROGRAM

AUTHORS

EmilyHarding

HarshanaGhoorhoo

AboutCSIS

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

TheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS)isabipartisan,nonprofitpolicy

researchorganizationdedicatedtoadvancingpracticalideastoaddresstheworld’s

greatestchallenges.

ThomasJ.PritzkerwasnamedchairmanoftheCSISBoardofTrusteesin2015,succeeding

formerU.S.senatorSamNunn(D-GA).Foundedin1962,CSISisledbyJohnJ.Hamre,who

hasservedaspresidentandchiefexecutiveofficersince2000.

CSIS’spurposeistodefinethefutureofnationalsecurity.Weareguidedbyadistinctset

ofvalues—nonpartisanship,independentthought,innovativethinking,cross-disciplinary

scholarship,integrityandprofessionalism,andtalentdevelopment.CSIS’svaluesworkin

concerttowardthegoalofmakingreal-worldimpact.

CSISscholarsbringtheirpolicyexpertise,judgment,androbustnetworkstotheir

research,analysis,andrecommendations.Weorganizeconferences,publish,lecture,and

makemediaappearancesthataimtoincreasetheknowledge,awareness,andsalienceof

policyissueswithrelevantstakeholdersandtheinterestedpublic.

II

CSIShasimpactwhenourresearchhelpstoinformthedecisionmakingofkey

policymakersandthethinkingofkeyinfluencers.Weworktowardavisionofasaferand

moreprosperousworld.

CSISdoesnottakespecificpolicypositions;accordingly,allviewsexpressedherein

shouldbeunderstoodtobesolelythoseoftheauthor(s).

?2023bytheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies.Allrightsreserved.

CenterforStrategic&InternationalStudies

1616RhodeIslandAvenue,NW

Washington,DC20036

202-887-0200|

Acknowledgments

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

TheauthorswouldliketothankKariBingen,SueGordon,Dr.TaraO’Toole,TexSchenkkan,

andJacquelineTamefortheirreviewofaninitialdraftandinsightfulfeedback.Opinionsand

findingsaresolelythoseoftheauthors,andanyerrorsoromissionsaresolelytheresponsibility

oftheauthors.Analysisandgraphsarebasedoncollecteddata;theauthorswelcome

recommendationsofrelevantdatasetsforfutureanalysisonthissubject.

ThisreportismadepossiblethroughgeneralsupporttoCSIS.

FormoreinformationonhowtheU.S.governmentcaneffectivelyincorporatetechnologyinto

nationalsecurityefforts,seeournewmicrosite,“TechRecs,”at.

III

Contents

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

ExecutiveSummary

Introduction

TheIssue

Methodology

FutureWarfare

WhatWillWar,Peace,Competition,andIntelligenceLookLikein2030?Smolder:Intelligence,Competition,andHybridWar

TheHotBlast:FutureWar

TheSevenTechnologies

FoundationalTechnologies

StrategicTechnologies

TacticalTechnologies

Recommendations:HowtoGetfromHeretoThere

SprintRecommendations:CommitResourcesandSenior-LevelFocus

FollowRecommendations:EncourageandManageDevelopmentsAdaptGovernmentPractices

Conclusion

AppendixI:BelowtheLine:TechnologyThatAlmostMadetheListAppendixII:IfIHadaBillionDollars...

AppendixIII:MappingTechnologiestoCapabilities

AppendixIV:ContributingExperts

AbouttheAuthors

Endnotes

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IV

ExecutiveSummary

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

Afteranin-depthreviewofdozensofimportantemergingtechnologies,researchersatCSIS

identifiedtheseventechnologiesthataremostlikelytomakeasignificantdifferenceinthe

successoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesacrossthespectrumofconflictoverthenextdecade.

TheU.S.governmentshould“sprint”onthreecriticaltechnologieswherecurrentcommercial

developmentsarenotfastenoughornottailoredenoughforU.S.governmentneed:bioengineering

technology;secure,redundantcommunicationsnetworks;andquantumtechnology.This

sprintshouldincluderobustresearchinpartnershipwithindustry,investment,andinnovative

approachestorapidadoption.

Further,theU.S.governmentshould“follow”infourareas:space-basedsensors;miniaturized,

long-lastingbatteries;robotics;andartificialintelligence/machinelearning.Inthesesectors,

privateinvestmentisrobust,andencouragingoffshootsofcommercialtechnologywillcreate

effectivedual-useproducts.

TheU.S.governmentshouldpairtheseeffortswithacriticalself-evaluationofacquisition

practices,inparticularidentifyinghowantiquatedacquisitionpracticesaregettinginthe

wayofmissionandhowtocreateaparallelpathwayforsoftwareandothertechnologies.

Meanwhile,theU.S.governmentshouldinvestresourcesinbuildingatech-savvyworkforce

andfightingforceoverthenext10years.

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sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

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CHAPTER1

Introduction

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

TheIssue

3

theworldisspeedingup.

Theworldisspeedingup.AdversariessuchasChinaareseekingtoremakeglobalpowerstructuresandcompetewiththeUnitedStatesforglobalinfluence.Aracetowardtechnologicaladvancementunderpinsthecompetitionovereconomicpower,publichealth,influenceoverpotentialallies,intelligencework,hybridconflict,andevenmilitarystrength.Thecompetitorwhodemonstratesatechnologicaladvantageonthesefrontshasanedgeinglobalinfluenceandanadvantageacrossthespectrumofconflict,withcorrespondingdeterrenteffect.

ThisprojectseekstodrawalinefromthecapabilitiestheUnitedStateswillneedinthiseraofcompetition,tothetechnologiesneededtosecurethosecapabilities,andfinallytoaclearpathforhowtopurchase,adapt,andincorporatethosetechnologiesintothenationalsecurityapparatus.

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Sincecompetitioniswide-ranging,thisprojectcouldhaveexploredawidesetofarenas.Instead,researchersfocusedoncorenationalsecurityfunctionsandwillleavediscussionsofeconomics,sustainability,andpublichealthtootherprojects.Further,ratherthanidentifywhichwidgettopurchase,theprojectdefinescriticaltechnologyareas.Itisclearthattheidealpieceofequipmenthasnotyetbeeninventedinmanyoftheseareas;thisprojectencouragesthegovernmenttoprioritizethesesevenareasforfacilitatinginnovationandtherebybringabouttheright,specificpieceoftechnology.

U.S.governmentcollaborationwithindustry—ratherthandemandsonit—willbeabsolutelycriticaltosuccessintheseendeavors.Thisreport’srecommendationssectionaddresseshowtheU.S.governmentandindustrymustmeetinthemiddleonrequirementsandcontracts.

Effortstochangethegovernment’srelationshipwithtechnologyneedurgency,prioritization,andfocus.Thechallengeofthenextdecadewillbemaintainingpeacewhilecreatingtheurgencyofacrisis.Preparingforcompetition—andperhapsconflict—withacommittedadversarysuchasChinawillnothappenovernight.

Methodology

Thisprojectwasaniterativeefforttoconstruct—andthenparedown—alistoftechnologiesthatwillbecriticaltosuccessacrossthespectrumofconflict.Theresearchteamreviewedtheliteratureaboutthefutureofwarfaretocheckassumptionsandthinkcriticallyabouttheneedsofthoseonthefrontlinesofcompetitionandconflict.Researchersalsoreviewedpreviouseffortstoconstructlistsoftechnologiesforcommonthreadsandprioritizations,theninterviewedawiderangeofexpertsingovernment,industry,andventurecapitaltocastawidenetonemergingtechnologies.Duringthoseinterviews,researcherspushedparticipantstogobeyondtheobvious,totrytolookpastthehorizon,andtoruthlesslyprioritizewheretoputthemosteffort.

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

Researchersusedtwotechniquestoforceprioritizationfromalonglistoftechnologies.First,participantsinaroundtablebrainstormedalistofnominatedtechnologies.Thentheywereaskedtospendatheoreticalbilliondollarsononeprojectandexplaintheirchoice,leadingtoaneye-openingdiscussionaboutwhatbasicelementsunderpinevolutionandrevolutioningovernmentpractices.(SeeAppendixIIforthesebillion-dollarvotes.)Incraftingthefinallistforthispaper,researchersevaluatedthelistoftechnologiesnominatedbyintervieweesandthosedescribedinpreviouseffortsagainstthreecriteria:

FIGURE1:CRITERIAFORINCLUSION

IMPACT

HowimportantisthistechnologyforU.S.nationalsecurityinthenextdecade?Inotherwords,whichofthesetechnologieswillhaveagame-changing,oratleastsigni?cant,impactontheUnitedStates’abilitytocollectintelligence,makedecisions,employforcesorconductmilitaryoperations,andcompeteefectivelyacrossthespectrumofcon?ict?

GOVERNMENTSUPPORT

Howcriticalisgovernmentsupporttobringingthiscapabilitytothemarket?Willthecommercialmarketbyitselfcreateenoughdemandfordual-useproductsinthisareaoftechnologicaladvancement?

INTEGRATION

Canthegovernmentincorporatethistechnologyefectively?Howandhowquickly?Iftheanswerisnoduetocurrentacquisitionpractices,whatwouldneedtochangetobringitintogovernment?

SOURCE:CSISINTERNATIONALSECURITYPROGRAM.

?ThislistevaluatestechnologiesalongsidetheneedsoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesacrossthespectrumofconflict.Thenextsectionisadiscussionofthelikelytrajectoryofthefutureofwar;thisanalysisinformeddecisionsaboutwhichtechnologiesmadethelist.

?Otherlistsincludedmanytechnologiesandlackedinsightonpreciselywhereeffortshouldbefocused.Thisprojectsoughttocreateashortlist,underthetheorythatamoretargetedeffortismorelikelytoleadtosuccess.

?ThisprojectincludedanassessmentofwhattheU.S.nationalsecuritycommunitycanandwillactuallyuse.Whileanytechnologicaladvancementcouldbeagamechanger,ifitsitsonashelf,itisirrelevant.ResearcherslookedatwhetherthetechnologywastooalientocurrentpracticesandequipmentfortheDepartmentofDefense(DOD)orintelligencecommunitytoreasonablyincorporateintoitstoolkit.

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Whilenationalsecurityprofessionalscanadaptextremelyquicklyinacrisissituation,shortofthatexternalurgency,researchersevaluatedwhatwasanachievablegoalinthenext10years.

?Alongtheselines,conversationswithexpertsuniversallyturnedtothechallengesofdeveloping,purchasing,andadoptingtechnologiesinsidegovernmentstructures.Asaresult,researchersdevotedachaptertospecific,actionablerecommendationsforovercomingtheseobstacles.

Whileanytechnological

advancementcouldbea

gamechanger,ifitsitsona

shelf,itisirrelevant.

4

Thefinallistcomprisesseventechnologiesthatwillbecriticalto

thesuccessofU.S.intelligence,militaryoperations,andother

defenseenterprisesinaconflictwithanear-peeradversary

orrival.Whilethelistoftechnologiesincludesfewsurprises,

thisprojectstrivestoaddvalueinfourways:

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CHAPTER2

FutureWarfare

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

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warinthefutureis

likelytobeaslow

smolderorahotblast.

WhatWillWar,Peace,Competition,andIntelligenceLookLikein2030?

Warinthefutureislikelytobeaslowsmolderorahotblast.

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Inotherwords,conflictseitherwilllooklikemeasuresfarshortofwarthataimtoshapetheplayingfieldorablitzoffensivedesignedtocreateafaitaccomplibeforealliescanmobilizetohelp.ThecriticalcapabilitiestheUnitedStateswillneedtocompeteareexquisitesensingcapabilities,theabilitytosortthroughmorenoisethaneverbeforetofindthesignal,rapiddecisionmaking,andcommunicatingeverythingfromstrategicdecisionstobattlefieldtacticsreliablyandsecurely.Further,shouldanear-peerconflicthappen,theUnitedStateswillneedtobeabletokeepforcesgeographicallyscatteredbuttightlycoordinated,andthoseforceswillneedtheresiliencetooperatewithlimitedresupplyforunknownamountsoftime.

Theslowsmolderisgearedtowardvictorywithoutfiringashot.Intelligenceactivities,competitivebehaviors,andhybridwarresultinaslowshiftoftheadversary’smindsetuntilthereisnowilltofight.AnexamplewouldbeChinaattemptingtotakeTaiwannotbyforce,butbyslowcoercion.ChinamightundermineTaiwan’sdemocraticinstitutions,supportpro-reunificationpoliticians,anddriveawedgebetweenTaiwanandtheUnitedStatestothepointthatTaipeiassumestheUnitedStateswillsitonthesidelinesinafight.Forexample,BeijingcouldthenbewellpositionedtothreatenTaiwanwitheconomicruin—ortopromiseeconomicprosperity—inexchangeforreunificationunder“twosystems,oneChina.”

Thehotblastwouldbetheoppositeapproach,incorporatinglessonslearnedfromtheRussia-Ukrainewar.Beijingcouldseektoachievetotalvictoryonthebattlefieldextremelyquickly—beforetheUnitedStates,Australia,oranyotherpotentialallycouldcometotherescue.Thisformofwarwouldinvolveoverwhelmingprecision-strikecapability,dominationofcommunications,andadecapitationattempt,inadditiontowell-hiddenpreparationsforwar.

Thecontoursofthesetwotypesofconflictaredescribedbelow,andeachdescriptionispairedwithacapabilityrequiredtosucceed.

SMOLDER:INTELLIGENCE,COMPETITION,ANDHYBRIDWAR

Capability:Intelligenceagencieswillrequiretheabilitytosecurelytransferinformationtoandfromanasset.

?Thefaceofintelligenceischanging.Inasense,thatfaceisliteral:facialrecognitiontechnologywithartificialintelligence/machinelearning(AI/ML)assistanceismakingtraditionalhumanintelligence(HUMINT)operationsdifficult,ifnotimpossible.ChinahasblanketedcitiesathomeandabroadwithCCTVandhasstoredyearsoffootage,makingitpossibletotracethemovementsofsuspectedhumanassetsovertime

.4

Communicatingvirtuallywithassetsisanincreasingchallenge,andapost-quantumfuturecouldinstantlydecryptdecadesof

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

previouslysecurecommunications.HUMINTwillevolveintoahigh-riskactivityonlyworthpursuingifthereturniscorrespondinglyhigh,forexample,togainexquisiteinsightintoleadershipdecisionmaking.Aformoflow-endHUMINTmayalsoevolvewhererelationshipsaretemporaryandtransactionalanddirectedatone-offtransfersofspecificpiecesofinformation.

Capability:Intelligenceorganizationswilladdvaluebyrecognizingthepotentialofpubliclyavailableinformation,evaluatingitsauthenticity,processingit,andcombiningitwithexquisite,classifiedinformationtoprovidefastinsights.

?Open-sourceintelligence(OSINT)willbeagrowingpartofintelligencework.Aseaofinformationisavailabletothepublicatlarge,andeverycellphoneineverypocketisapotentialsensor.ThecombinationofAI/ML,cloudcapabilities,andthisrichstoreofpubliclyavailableinformationcanleadtoarevolutioninhowtheU.S.governmentthinksaboutintelligenceandclassification

.5

Capability:Thisnewworldofintelligencewillrequiretoolsthathelpsortthroughmassesofinformation,processitefficiently,andflagthehighest-interestitemsforhumanreview.

?Identifyingsmallanomaliesthatunveilthe“slowsmolder”scenariowillrequiresmartprocessingoftinyindicatorsinthenoise.Similarly,indicationsandwarningofimpendingadversaryhostilitycouldprovidecrucialhoursforavoidingcatastropheandavertingthe“hotblast”formofwar.Therequiredtoolsforsuccesswillbequantumsensingtocollectthesignalsandminutesignaturesadversariestrytohide;AI/MLfortippingandcueing,perhapspairedwiththepowerofquantumcomputing;andon-orbitprocessingofdatatocreateefficiencies.Thecombinationofthesetechnologieswillspeedupsensor-to-decisionmakertime.

Capability:Offensivecyberoperatorswillneedaconstantstreamofvulnerabilitiesandaccesspointsandwaystoobfuscatepresenceonanetwork;defenderswillneedinstantawarenessofunauthorizedaccessandtotalvisibilityintotheirnetworkandallendpoints.

?Cyberoffenseanddefensewillcontinuetogrowinsophisticationinanongoingcatandmousegame.AcombinationofcybertoolsandAI/MLprogramswillbeabletonavigatearound(orpenetrate)defensesor,conversely,erectnewdefensesinthepathofanexploitationeffort.Intelligenceagencieswillworktodevelopdisposablecyber

exploitationtoolsthatcangainaccessandbediscarded;persistenceonanetworkwillberareandgolden.

Capability:Allsideswillseekthecapabilitytoshocktheiradversarywithanewtechnologicalsuccessandtopersuadealliesthattheyareontheascendantside.

?Inthiseraofcompetition,near-peeradversariesseektoshapetheworldtotheirpreferencesandestablishadominancethatwilldeterothersfromchallengingthatdominance.InformationwarfarewillbeacoreelementofChinaandRussia’sshapingstrategies.Stateswillalsodemonstratetheircapacitytodominateanddeterwithtechnologyarmsraces.Announcementsofbreakthroughswillhavethedualintentofmakingscientificprogresswhilealsobolsteringdeterrence.

Capability:TheU.S.governmentwillneedsensingandprocessingcapabilitiesthatflagapotentiallyaggressiveactionoruncoverasuiteofincrementalorclandestineactionsthatcouldoutmaneuveranopponent.

?Hybridwar—distinguishedfromcompetition—isanattempttoshapetheglobalenvironmentinaclandestinewaywithmeasuresshortofwar.Inthesescenarios,anactorcanassessthatcertainactionsarebeneaththethresholdthatmightpromptaviolentresponse.Informationwarfarefeatureshereaswell,butinamorecovertsense.Cyberactivityforoperationalpreparationoftheenvironmentwillbeaconstant,asadversariesseektoholdatriskeverythingfromcommandandcontroltocivilianinfrastructuretodeterhostilitiesorasanearlymoveinanemergingconflict.Hybridwarmaybehighlyindividualized,withAI/MLandOSINTmakingitpossibletotargetparticularpeoplesittingbehindkeyboardsorheadedtothefrontlines;thattargetingcouldrangefrompsychologicalpressureuptobiologicalwarfarefortargetedkillings

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sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

THEHOTBLAST:FUTUREWAR

Capability:TheUnitedStateswillneedahighlymobileand

expeditionarymilitaryandaresilientcommunications

system,usingspace-based,ground-based,andundersea

assetstocreateacommunicationsmeshnetwork.

AlternativestoGPSsystemsforlong-rangestrikeweapons

likelywillbenecessaryiftheGPSsystemisdisrupted.

Functionalautonomywillhelpwithcontestedlogistics,

inparticularifautonomousair-andsea-basedassetscan

beusedforsupplydelivery

.7

?TheUnitedStatesisshiftingfromafocusona

counterterrorism(CT)conflictagainstamostlylow-tech

adversarytopreparingforahigh-end,high-intensity

conflictagainstasophisticatedrival.Thisnewworldof

warfarewilllikelyseeintenseexchangesofprecision

weaponry,withrebuildandrestockcapabilityvitalto

success.InafightinthePacific,contestedlogisticswill

bedevilbothsides,sothewarfighterswillneedtobeboth

highlynetworkedandhighlyindependent.Marshalling

therightelementsforabattlewillrequirebeingableto

communicatesecurely,andwithlowsignatures,betweena

rangeofspecializedunitsspreadacrossahugegeographic

area;contestedlogisticsandlikelydisruptionstothose

communicationsmeanthatafightingunitwillalsoneed

tobetemporarilyself-sufficient.Just-in-timedelivery

offood,spareparts,andfuelwillnotbeguaranteed.

Plannersmustassumeextensivelossofequipment.

Disposable,oratleastattritable,assetswillbenecessary,in

particularuncrewedtechnology,fromundersearesupply

tosaildronesforsurveillancetoairbornedroneswarms

usedasloiteringmunitions.Thesesystemswillneed

sophisticatedsoftwareandcheaphardware.Ontheother

end,stealthtechnologyempoweringlong-rangestrikesis

alsolikelytobeacriticalasset.Submarines,long-range

bombers,andhypersonicsmayprovethedecisiveedge

inahigh-endconflict.Securecommunicationswillbe

atahighpremium,withpartiestotheconflictlikely

succeedingindisruptingcommunicationsinthecyber

andelectromagneticdomainandwithkineticstrikes.

Underseacablesandspace-basedassetsareallatrisk.

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CHAPTER3

TheSevenTechnologies

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

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togettothesecapabilities,

theunitedstateswillneed

majoradvancesinkey

technologies.

Togettothesecapabilities,theUnitedStateswillneedmajoradvancesinkeytechnologies.Indiscussionswithnationalsecurityprofessionals,researchersfoundthattherewasgeneralconsensusaboutneededadvancementsinawiderangeoftechnologies—30ormore.However,wheneverythingisapriority,nothingis.Controversyemergedintrimmingthatlonglisttoasetoffocusedefforts.

Throughinterviews,researchintotheelementsofcompetition,andthethree-parttestlaidoutabove,researcherscreatedthe

followingshortlistofsevenpriorities.Whiletheyarenotinorderofimportance,thefirstthreeare“sprint”technologies,wherethegovernmentshoulddriveprogresswithintentionandurgency.Theremainingfourare“follow”technologies,wherethegovernmentcanencourageandshapetheprivatesector’sefforts.

Thesetechnologieswillbecriticaltosuccessacrossthespectrumofconflict:

FIGURE2:THESEVENTECHNOLOGIES

SPRINTTECHNOLOGY

SecureandRedundant

Communications

Tomorrow’sfightwilldependheavilyoncommunications.Jointnessofforces,operationswithallies,andeventacticalcoordinationbetweendispersedunitsdependonsecureandever-presentcommunications.Long-rangeengagementswillmakecommunicationsevenmorecritical,fromprovidingwarningofincomingfiretocoordinatingwithfar-flungelements.High-endsensorsuitesandreal-timetargetingdataareonlyaseffectiveasthecommunicationsnetworkusedtotransferinformationfromsensortoshooter

.8

QuantumTechnology

Quantumtechnologieswillrevolutionizecomputingpower,encryption,andsensing.Currentencryptionisbuilttobesocomplexthatamoderncomputerwouldtakethousandsofyearstocrackitbyforce.Quantumcomputerswouldbeabletobreakasymmetricencryptioninminutes

.9

Quantumsensors,meanwhile,takeadvantageofthesensitivityoftinyparticlestomeasuresubtlechangesinanenvironment,includingrotation,electromagneticsignalsofanyfrequency,andtemperature

.10

QuantumsensorscouldenableanavigatingsystemthatcanoperateeveninGPS-deniedenvironments

.11

sevencriticaltechnologiesforwinningthenextwar

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SPRINTTECHNOLOGY

Bioengineering

Bioengineeringappliesengineeringprinciplesofdesignandanalysistobiologicalsystemsandbiomedicaltechnologies.Bioengineeringincludessyntheticbiotechnology,whichisasubfieldfocusedoncreatingbiologicalprocessesorbiologicalcompoundsnotfoundinnature

.12

Bioengineeringincorporatesgeneticengineering,modifyingorganismsinawaythatproducesadifferentbehaviororoutcome,andenhancedhumanbiology.

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Bioengineering’sapplicationsarehugelyvaried,fromconvertingbacteriaintofuelproductionfactoriestocreatinggeneticallymodifiedpathogensfortargetingaparticularpopulation.

FOLLOWTECHNOLOGY

Space-Based

Technology

Tremendousadvancementsinon-orbitcapabilitieswillcreateadefinitiveedgeinthespacedomain,includingon-orbitrefueling,on-orbitdataprocessing,andresilientspacearchitecture.Hyperspectralandincreasinglysensitivesensorsmountedonclustersofsmallsatellitesandon-boardprocessorsequippedwithtippingandcueingAI/MLalgorithmscouldselectdatamostlikelytobeimportantanddownlinkquicklytoaground-basedmesh.

High-PerformanceBatteries

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Modernmilitarieshavetremendousdemandforfuelandpower,fromvehiclestocommunicationsequipmenttolaptopsthatrunbackpackdronesandothertacticalsurveillance.Powerisalsocriticalforintelligence—miniaturizedbatteriescanfuelcommunicationsorcollectionsdevicesconcealedinunusualitems.Further,apushtowardunmannedsystemswithlongdwelltimeswillrequirelong-lastingbatterysystems.

AI/ML

WithproperintegrationwithinDOD’soperations,AI/MLsystemswillaccelerate—andcomplicate—mostofthecorefunctionsoftheU.S.nationalsecuritycommunity.Theabilitytoprocesshugedatasetsandfocusonthesignalthroughthenoisewillhelpintelligenceofficersmoreeffectivelyprovideindicationsandwarning,helppolicymakersunderstandcomplextrends,andhelpwarfightersmanageamultilayeredbattlefield,includingautonomousvehiclesandall-domainwarfare.

Robotics

Roboticadvancements,combinedwithautonomousorsemi-autonomouscapabilities,willmakeitpossibletominimizerisktohumanlifeindangeroussituations,onandoffthebattlefield,andperformtasksthatareimpossibleordangerousforpeople.

SOURCE:CSISINTERNATIONALSECURITYPROGRAM.

Combinationsofthesetechnologiesareoftenmorepowerfulthanthesumoftheirparts.Forexample,AI/MLtogetherwithbioengineeringcouldcreateradicalbreakthroughs,suchasdiscoveringnewbiologicalcompounds,andcombiningspacetechnologyandquantumsensingcouldrevolutionizeintelligencework.

ThereisgeneralconsensusthattheU.S.governmentneedsthesetechnologies,butmakingprogressonthepathtoactualadoptionhasstillbeen