圖4所示。首先進(jìn)行對仿真模型進(jìn)行不確定性分析及分類，完善三角形的每個角上的模型，然后針對所研究的具體問題建立包括兩種甚至三種模型的混合可靠性模型。圖SEQ圖\*ARABIC4不確定性重心三角形考慮綜合不確定性的自適應(yīng)重要抽樣算法不確定性分析和量化的主要任務(wù)是為分析各種輸入、參數(shù)和模型不確定性對可靠性的影響服務(wù)。該部分研究的重點(diǎn)在于首先給出混合可靠性指標(biāo)的數(shù)學(xué)描述形式；其次研究改進(jìn)原型可靠性仿真算法（基于MCMC的自適應(yīng)重要抽樣方法）計算新的混合可靠性指標(biāo)；最后應(yīng)用案例對所提方法的適用性及高效性進(jìn)行應(yīng)用驗(yàn)證。離散與連續(xù)分層結(jié)構(gòu)自適應(yīng)變步長機(jī)制離散與連續(xù)交互仿真中因?yàn)轫攲与x散模型動態(tài)變化緩慢，而底層連續(xù)模型的動態(tài)特性卻要求快速變化。對此進(jìn)行高效仿真算法研究其本質(zhì)上就是如何自動檢測離散事件發(fā)生，轉(zhuǎn)換仿真步長進(jìn)行小步長的連續(xù)過程仿真，并將仿真結(jié)果返回到離散事件檢測系統(tǒng)中，作為判據(jù)之一確定是否轉(zhuǎn)換到下一離散狀態(tài)中。研究內(nèi)容主要包括3個部分：事件檢測，事件定位，步進(jìn)完成。最后進(jìn)行應(yīng)用案例驗(yàn)證。長短周期交互的自適應(yīng)變步長仿真優(yōu)化算法本論文研究的機(jī)電耦合系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行是一個動態(tài)的時變過程，需要通過仿真評估短周期指標(biāo)與長周期指標(biāo)。首先，系統(tǒng)的退化周期一般較長，這本身就對仿真效率提出了更高的要求；其次在統(tǒng)一的仿真步長下，短周期與長周期交互仿真難以協(xié)調(diào)。所以如（5）中問題類似，在本論文研究中希望采用自適應(yīng)變步長優(yōu)化算法方法進(jìn)行長短周期交互的混雜系統(tǒng)仿真。一方面通過先粗略離散化系統(tǒng)長時間的退化過程得到某些離散退化點(diǎn)；再插入相應(yīng)的監(jiān)測機(jī)制判斷是否需要中間過程，使模型能夠隨著仿真模擬的進(jìn)行，自適應(yīng)地調(diào)整仿真步長點(diǎn)，綜合提高仿真效率。最后通過案例對仿真算法進(jìn)行應(yīng)用驗(yàn)證?？尚行苑治龈鶕?jù)前期文獻(xiàn)調(diào)研，已有大量關(guān)于機(jī)電產(chǎn)品可靠性仿真方法的研究成果，特別是自適應(yīng)重要抽樣方法，在理論方面有很多成果可以借鑒。而且，經(jīng)過3年的項目課題研究，目前也取得了一定的研究成果，發(fā)表EI文章4篇（混合變量系統(tǒng)的基于MCMC自適應(yīng)重要抽樣法、基于MCMC的模糊自適應(yīng)重要抽樣法、ResearchonAnalysisMethodofDynamicReliability、PerformanceDegenerationAnalysisandReliabilityEvaluationofServoValve），授權(quán)專利一個（基于馬爾可夫鏈蒙特卡羅的舵機(jī)可靠性抽樣方法），待審SCI文章一篇（DirectionalMarkovChainMonteCarloforFastDynamicReliabilityAssessment）。在此相關(guān)理論研究借鑒和已取得的研究成果基礎(chǔ)上，相信完成本論文的研究內(nèi)容是可能的?？赡艿膭?chuàng)新之處本論文可能的創(chuàng)新之處如下：機(jī)-電-液和機(jī)-電-熱多專業(yè)聯(lián)合仿真方法；系統(tǒng)建模中不確定性量化方法，建立混合可靠性模型；考慮各不確定性的自適應(yīng)重要抽樣方法；離散與連續(xù)分層變步長機(jī)制；長短周期交互的變步長仿真方法。預(yù)期達(dá)到的目標(biāo)和研究成果預(yù)期目標(biāo)：實(shí)現(xiàn)機(jī)-電-液和機(jī)-電-熱多學(xué)科領(lǐng)域協(xié)同仿真，并給出系統(tǒng)綜合評價指標(biāo)；進(jìn)行機(jī)電耦合系統(tǒng)性能可靠性仿真模型中的各種不確定分析，并研究了各種不確定性的量化方法；研究考慮綜合不確定性的自適應(yīng)重要抽樣方法；給出離散狀態(tài)與連續(xù)過程層交互仿真機(jī)制，并研究高效變步長仿真算法；確定長短周期交互的變步長仿真算法，實(shí)現(xiàn)長周期動態(tài)可靠性仿真評估。預(yù)期成果：完成“基于故障機(jī)理的機(jī)電系統(tǒng)多尺度可靠性仿真方法研究”博士論文；進(jìn)行應(yīng)用案例驗(yàn)證（如電液伺服閥、MEMSDC轉(zhuǎn)換開關(guān)）；按關(guān)鍵問題點(diǎn)（多專業(yè)聯(lián)合仿真、不確定性分析與量化、考慮綜合不確定性的自適應(yīng)重要抽樣算法研究、離散與連續(xù)混合仿真機(jī)制與自適應(yīng)變步長算法研究、基于MCMC自適應(yīng)重要抽樣的長短周期交互仿真算法研究）撰寫與發(fā)表相關(guān)小論文。論文工作計劃論文工作計劃如REF_Ref380592822\h表3所示。表SEQ表\*ARABIC3論文工作計劃起止日期工作內(nèi)容成果備注2013.8~2014.021)根據(jù)課題研究背景，提煉課題研究中擬解決的技術(shù)難題；2）調(diào)研高效仿真研究現(xiàn)狀，尋找1)中問題解決途徑；3）確定論文的主要研究內(nèi)容、關(guān)鍵問題及技術(shù)路線，完成開題報告。完成開題報告和文獻(xiàn)綜述2014.03~2014.05針對一般機(jī)電產(chǎn)品如射流管伺服閥，研究機(jī)、電、液、控多專業(yè)領(lǐng)域模型聯(lián)合仿真及數(shù)據(jù)流交互方法；針對MEMS產(chǎn)品如DC直流開關(guān)，進(jìn)行機(jī)、電、熱、控多專業(yè)領(lǐng)域模型聯(lián)合仿真研究。EI論文一篇2014.06~2014.08針對機(jī)電耦合系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行故障或參數(shù)不確定性分析；2）將多種不確定性進(jìn)行分類與不確定性量化方法研究。2014.09~2014.10考慮綜合不確定性的高效仿真算法研究；案例驗(yàn)證。EI論文一篇2014.11~2014.12研究離散與連續(xù)混合仿真機(jī)制；離散與連續(xù)層自適應(yīng)變步長優(yōu)化算法研究；案例驗(yàn)證。EI論文一篇、授權(quán)專利一個2015.01~2015.02長短周期交互的自適應(yīng)變步長算法研究，進(jìn)行動態(tài)可靠性分析；案例驗(yàn)證。SCI論文一篇2015.03~2015.05完善補(bǔ)充研究內(nèi)容；撰寫博士論文，答辯。完成博士論文和論文答辯主要參考文獻(xiàn)孫樂仁.機(jī)電產(chǎn)品可靠性技術(shù)[M].機(jī)械工業(yè)出版社,1987.3.鄒桂根等.機(jī)電一體化系統(tǒng)可靠性設(shè)計[M].上海交通大學(xué)出版社,1996.7.ChenYunxia,KangRui,SunYufeng.Integratingdesignforperformanceandreliability[A].ReliabilityandMaintainabilitySymposium,2006.RAMS’06.Annual[C],2006:343-348.ZengSK,MaJM,LiFX.Designoptimizationconsideringperformanceandreliability[A]ReliabilityandMaintainabilitySymposium,2009.RAMS’09.Annual[C],2009:201-205.W.Shapiro,F.Murray,R.Howarth,RFusaro.Spacemechanismslessonslearnedstudy.Volume1:Summary[R].NASALewisResearchCenter,1995.W.Shapiro,F.Murray,R.Howarth,RFusaro.Spacemechanismslessonslearnedstudy.Volume2:Literaturereview[R].NASALewisResearchCenter,1995.周經(jīng)倫,金光,馮靜,劉強(qiáng).衛(wèi)星長壽命機(jī)電部件（動量輪）極小子樣可靠性技術(shù)[R].國防科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué),2008.RogerCooke.ReliabilityDatabaseinPerspective[J].IEEETransactiononReliability,2002,47(3).Wi11iamDenson.TheHistoryofReliabilityPrediction[J].IEEETransactiononRe1iability,1998,47(3).MarvinRausand,ArnljotH?yland.SystemReliabilityTheory:Models,StatisticalMethods,andApplications[M].2ndEdition,Wiley-Blackwell,2004.MohammadModarres,MarkKaminskiy,VasiliyKrivtsov.ReliabilityEngineeringandRiskAnalysis:APracticalGuide[M].2ndEdition,CRCPress,2009.J.H.Saleh,K.Marais.Highlightsformtheearly(andpre-)historyofreliabilityengineering[J].ReliabilityEngineering&SystemSafety,2006,91(2):249-256.S.W.Lam,T.Halim,K.Muthusamy.Modelswithfailure-freelife:Appliedreviewandextensions[J].IEEETransactiononDeviceandmaterialsreliability,2011,10(2):263-270.W.Q.Meeker,M.J.Luvalle.Anacceleratedlifetestmodelbasedonreliabilitykinetics[J].Technometrics,1995,37(2):133-146.M.B.Carey,R.H.Koenig.ReliabilityAssessmentBasedonAcceleratedDegradation:ACaseStudy[J].IEEETransactiononReliability,1991,40(5):499-506.J.G.Ramirez,W.L.Gore,G.Johnston.Newmethodsformodelingreliabilityusingdegradationdata[J].StatisticsDataAnalysisandDataMining,2001:26-33.J.C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