四、貨幣理論與貨幣政策

MONETARYTHEORYANDMONETARYPOLICY第一頁，共八十四頁。金融資產結構貨幣與貨幣供給=流通中現金=+活期存款=+定期存款=+其他短期流動資產（如國庫券、銀行承兌匯票、商業(yè)票據）+外匯存款有價證券：分為政府債券和企業(yè)債券兩種。股票。第二頁，共八十四頁。TheMeaningofMoneyMoneyisthesetofassets（資產）intheeconomythatpeopleregularlyusetobuygoodsandservicesfromotherpeople.第三頁，共八十四頁。ThreeFunctionsofMoneyMoneyhasthreefunctionsintheeconomy.

?Mediumofexchange（交換媒介）

?Unitofaccount（計量單位）

?Storeofvalue（貯藏價值）第四頁，共八十四頁。MediumofExchangeAmediumofexchangeisanythingthatisreadilyacceptableaspayment.第五頁，共八十四頁。UnitofAccountAunitofaccountistheyardstickpeopleusetopostpricesandrecorddebts.第六頁，共八十四頁。StoreofValueAstoreofvalueisanitemthatpeoplecanusetotransferpurchasingpower（購買力）fromthepresenttothefuture.第七頁，共八十四頁。Liquidity（流動性）Liquidityistheeasewithwhichanassetcanbeconvertedintotheeconomy’smediumofexchange.第八頁，共八十四頁。TheKindsofMoneyCommoditymoney（商品貨幣）

takestheformofacommoditywithintrinsicvalue（內在價值）.

?Examples:Gold,silver,cigarettesFiatmoney（法定貨幣）

isusedasmoneybecauseofgovernmentdecree.

?Itdoesnothaveintrinsicvalue.

?Examples:Coins,currency,check deposits第九頁，共八十四頁。MoneyintheEconomyCurrency（通貨）isthepaperbillsandcoinsinthehandsofthepublic.Demanddeposits（活期存款）

arebalancesinbankaccountsthatdepositorscanaccessondemandbywritingacheck.第十頁，共八十四頁。中央銀行職能壟斷發(fā)行本國的法定貨幣。以債務方式接受存款機構繳存的存款準備金，以墊款或票據再貼現方式對存款機構發(fā)放貸款，承擔金融機構之間的票據交換和結算業(yè)務。代理國庫，即經辦政府的收支，管理國家的外匯，制定和實施國家的金融政策。第十一頁，共八十四頁。TheFederalReserve聯邦儲備體系TheFederalReserve(Fed)servesasthenation’scentralbank

?Itisdesignedtooverseethebanking system.

?Itregulatesthequantityofmoneyinthe economy.第十二頁，共八十四頁。TheFederalReserveTheFedwascreatedin1914afteraseriesofbankfailuresconvincedCongress（國會）thattheU.S.neededacentralbanktoensurethehealthofthenation’sbankingsystem.第十三頁，共八十四頁。TheFed’sOrganizationTheFedisrunbyaBoardofGovernors（董事局）,whichhassevenmembersappointedbythePresidentandconfirmedbytheSenate（參議院）.第十四頁，共八十四頁。TheFed’sOrganizationThechairmanoftheboardpresidesatboardmeetings,directsthestaff,andtestifiesaboutFedpolicy.第十五頁，共八十四頁。TheFed’sOrganizationTheFederalReserveSystem（聯邦儲備體系）ismadeupoftheFederalReserveBoardinWashington,D.C.,andtwelveregionalFederalReserveBanks（聯邦儲備銀行）.第十六頁，共八十四頁。TheFed’sOrganizationMonetarypolicy（貨幣政策）isconductedbytheFederalOpenMarketCommittee（公開市場委員會）.第十七頁，共八十四頁。ThreePrimaryFunctionsoftheFedRegulatesbankstoensuretheyfollowfederallawsintendedtopromotesafeandsoundbankingpractices.第十八頁，共八十四頁。ThreePrimaryFunctionsoftheFedActsasabanker’sbank,makingloanstobanksandasalenderoflastresort.第十九頁，共八十四頁。ThreePrimaryFunctionsoftheFedConductsmonetarypolicybycontrollingthemoneysupply.第二十頁，共八十四頁。商業(yè)銀行職能作為融通資金的信用中介，主要業(yè)務是吸收存款和發(fā)放貸款。創(chuàng)造信用貨幣。最初的信用貨幣是銀行券，現代的信用貨幣主要是支票、信用卡等。創(chuàng)造存款、擴張信用。提供廣泛的金融服務，如代發(fā)工資、代理支付、消費信用、信息服務、咨詢服務等。第二十一頁，共八十四頁。金融市場中的資產負債關系公眾商業(yè)銀行中央銀行政府資產負債資產負債資產負債資產負債通貨通貨存款存款國債國債國債國債準備金準備金貸款貸款外匯儲備第二十二頁，共八十四頁。BanksandTheMoneySupplyBankscaninfluencethequantityofdemanddeposits（活期存款數量）intheeconomyandthemoneysupply.第二十三頁，共八十四頁。BanksandTheMoneySupplyReserves（準備金）aredepositsthatbankshavereceivedbuthavenotloanedout.Inafractionalreservebankingsystem（部分準備金體系）,banksholdafractionofthemoneydepositedasreservesandlendouttherest.

第二十四頁，共八十四頁。MoneyCreation（貨幣創(chuàng)造）Whenabankmakesaloanfromitsreserves,themoneysupplyincreases.第二十五頁，共八十四頁。MoneyCreationThemoneysupplyisaffectedbytheamountdepositedinbanksandtheamountthatbanksloan.

?Depositsintoabankarerecordedasboth assetsandliabilities（資產和負債）.

?Loansbecomeanassettothebank.第二十六頁，共八十四頁。MoneyCreationThisT-Accountillustratesabankthatacceptsdeposits,keepsaportionasreserves,andlendsouttherest.AssetsLiabilitiesFirstNationalBankReserves $10.00Loans $90.00Deposits $100.00TotalAssets $100.00TotalLiabilities $100.00第二十七頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplier（貨幣乘數）Whenonebankloansmoney,thatmoneyisgenerallydepositedintoanotherbank.

?Thiscreatesmoredepositsandmore reservestobelentout.第二十八頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplier（貨幣乘數）Themoneymultiplier

istheamountofmoneythebankingsystemgenerateswitheachdollarofreserves.第二十九頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplierAssetsLiabilitiesFirstNationalBankReserves $10.00Loans $90.00Deposits $100.00TotalAssets $100.00TotalLiabilities $100.00第三十頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplierAssetsLiabilitiesFirstNationalBankReserves $10.00Loans $90.00Deposits $100.00TotalAssets $100.00TotalLiabilities $100.00AssetsLiabilitiesSecondNationalBankReserves $9.00Loans $81.00Deposits $90.00TotalAssets $90.00TotalLiabilities $90.00第三十一頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplierAssetsLiabilitiesFirstNationalBankReserves $10.00Loans $90.00Deposits $100.00TotalAssets $100.00TotalLiabilities $100.00AssetsLiabilitiesSecondNationalBankReserves $9.00Loans $81.00Deposits $90.00TotalAssets $90.00TotalLiabilities $90.00第三十二頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplierAssetsLiabilitiesFirstNationalBankReserves $10.00Loans $90.00Deposits $100.00TotalAssets $100.00TotalLiabilities $100.00AssetsLiabilitiesSecondNationalBankReserves $9.00Loans $81.00Deposits $90.00TotalAssets $90.00TotalLiabilities $90.00MoneySupply=$190.00!第三十三頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplierHowmuchmoneyiseventuallycreatedinthiseconomy?第三十四頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplierHowmuchmoneyiseventuallycreatedinthiseconomy?Originaldeposit=$100.00FirstNationallending=$90.00[=0.9x$100.00]SecondNationallending=$81.00[=0.9x$90.00]ThirdNationallendingetc.etc.=$72.90[=0.9x$81.00] etc. etc.Totalmoneysupply=$1,000第三十五頁，共八十四頁。TheMoneyMultiplierThemoneymultiplieristhereciprocalofthereserveratio（準備金率的倒數）.M=1/R

?Withareserverequirement,R=20%or1/5,

?Themultiplieris5.第三十六頁，共八十四頁。貨幣乘數（1）（2）（3）（4）（5）（6）（8）（7）第三十七頁，共八十四頁。古典貨幣需求理論歐文·費雪(IrvingFisher)交易方程式：MV=PY，（V為貨幣平均流通速度）馬歇爾和庇古(ArthurC.Pigou)現金余額學說：M=KPY，（K為貨幣需求與名義國民收入之間的比例，即上述V的倒數）第三十八頁，共八十四頁。TheQuantityTheoryofMoney

貨幣數量論Howthepricelevelisdeterminedandwhyitmightchangeovertimeiscalledthequantitytheoryofmoney.

?Thequantityofmoneyavailableinthe economydeterminesthevalueofmoney（決定了貨幣的價值）.

?Theprimarycauseofinflation（通貨膨脹）isthegrowthinthequantityofmoney（貨幣數量的增長）.第三十九頁，共八十四頁。TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutrality

古典兩分法與貨幣中性AccordingtoHume（休謨）andothers,realeconomicvariables（真實經濟變量）donotchangewithchangesinthemoneysupply.

?Accordingtotheclassicaldichotomy, differentforcesinfluencerealand nominalvariables（實際變量與名義變量）.第四十頁，共八十四頁。TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutralityNominalvariables（名義變量）arevariablesmeasuredinmonetaryunits（貨幣單位）.Realvariables（實際變量）arevariablesmeasuredinphysicalunits（物理單位）.Changesinthemoneysupplyaffectnominalvariablebutnotrealvariables.第四十一頁，共八十四頁。TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutralityTheirrelevanceofmonetarychangesforrealvariablesiscalledmonetaryneutrality（貨幣中性）.第四十二頁，共八十四頁。VelocityandtheQuantityEquationThevelocityofmoney（貨幣流通速度）

referstothespeedatwhichthetypicaldollarbilltravelsaroundtheeconomyfromwallettowallet.第四十三頁，共八十四頁。VelocityandtheQuantityEquationV=(PxY)/M

Where:V=velocity

P

=thepricelevel

Y=thequantityofoutput

M=thequantityofmoney第四十四頁，共八十四頁。VelocityandtheQuantityEquationRewritingtheequationgivesthequantityequation.MxV=PxY第四十五頁，共八十四頁。FoundationsoftheQuantityTheoryofMoneyThevelocityofmoneyisrelativelystable（相對穩(wěn)定）overtime.WhentheFedchangesthequantityofmoney,itcausesproportionatechanges（成比例的變化）inthenominalvalueofoutput.Becausemoneyisneutral,moneydoesnotaffectoutput.第四十六頁，共八十四頁。FoundationsoftheQuantityTheoryofMoneyChangesinthemoneysupplythatinduceparallelchanges（平行變化）inthenominalvalueofoutputarealsoreflectedinchangesinthepricelevel.第四十七頁，共八十四頁。FoundationsoftheQuantityTheoryofMoneyWhentheFedincreasesthemoneysupplyrapidly,theresultisahighrateofinflation.第四十八頁，共八十四頁。TheFisherEffect（費雪效應）AccordingtotheFishereffect,whentherateofinflationrises,thenominalinterestrate（名義利率）risesbythesameamount.Therealinterestrate（實際利率）staysthesame.第四十九頁，共八十四頁。TheFisherEffectAccordingtotheFishereffect,whentherateofinflationrises（通貨膨脹率）,thenominalinterestraterisesbythesameamount.Therealinterestratestaysthesame.第五十頁，共八十四頁。TheFisherEffectWhentheFedincreasestherateofmoneygrowth,theresultisbothahigherinflationrateandahighernominalinterestrate.第五十一頁，共八十四頁。Keynes’Interest-RateEffectKeynes’theoryofhowtheinterestrateisdeterminediscalledthetheoryofliquiditypreference（流動偏好理論）.

?Accordingtothetheory,theinterestrate adjuststobalancethesupplyanddemand formoney.第五十二頁，共八十四頁。TheoryofLiquidityPreferenceAhigherpricelevelincreasesthedemandformoney.

?Thisleadstoahigherinterestrate.Ahigherinterestratereducesinvestment.

?Thisleadstoalowerquantityofgoods andservicesdemanded.第五十三頁，共八十四頁。凱恩斯流動偏好理論

Theoryofliquiditypreference凱恩斯認為，人們總是偏好將一定量的貨幣保持在手中。這種心理上的“流動性偏好”是由三種動機所決定：交易動機。由于收入與支出的時間不一致，人們必須持有一部分貨幣以滿足日常交易的需要。預防動機。即人們?yōu)閼兑馔庑枰С龆钟械呢泿?。投機動機。為應付利率的不確定性，人們在有利時機購買證券進行投機而持有的貨幣。第五十四頁，共八十四頁。凱恩斯貨幣需求函數rr1r20L21L22L23L流動性陷阱第五十五頁，共八十四頁。TheSupplyofMoneyBecauseitisfixedbytheFed,thequantityofmoneysupplied（貨幣供給）doesnotdependontheinterestrate.第五十六頁，共八十四頁。TheSupplyofMoneyThefixedmoneysupplyisrepresentedbyaverticalsupplycurve（垂直供給線）.第五十七頁，共八十四頁。TheSupplyofMoneyQuantityofMoneyInterestRate0第五十八頁，共八十四頁。TheSupplyofMoneyQuantityfixedbytheFedQuantityofMoneyInterestRate0Moneysupply第五十九頁，共八十四頁。三大貨幣政策工具再貼現政策。包括規(guī)定和調整再貼現率，規(guī)定能夠用于再貼現票據的條件，規(guī)定各銀行一定時期內在中央銀行再貼現的最高限額。法定準備金制度。包括規(guī)定法定準備金率，調整法定準備金率，規(guī)定可充當法定準備金的資產內容。公開市場業(yè)務，是指中央銀行在公開市場上買賣有價證券的行為，以此來調節(jié)貨幣供應量。第六十頁，共八十四頁。ToolsofMonetaryControlTheFedhasthreetoolsinitsmonetarytoolbox.

?Open-marketoperations（公開市場業(yè)務）

?Changingthereserverequirement（改變準備金比率）

?Changingthediscountrate（改變貼現率）第六十一頁，共八十四頁。Open-MarketOperationsTheFedconductsopen-marketoperationswhenitbuysgovernmentbondsfromorsellsgovernmentbonds（國債）tothepublic.

?WhentheFedbuysgovernmentbonds, themoneysupplyincreases.

?Themoneysupplydecreaseswhenthe Fedsellsgovernmentbonds.第六十二頁，共八十四頁。ChangingtheReserveRequirementsReserverequirementsareregulationsontheminimumamountofreservesthatbanksmustholdagainstdeposits.

?Increasingtherequirementdecreasesthe moneysupply.

?Decreasingtherequirementincreasesthe moneysupply.第六十三頁，共八十四頁。ChangingtheDiscountRateThediscountrate（貼現率）istheinterestratetheFedchargesbanksforloans.

?Increasingthediscountratedecreasesthe moneysupply.

?Decreasingthediscountrateincreasesthe moneysupply.第六十四頁，共八十四頁。TheSupplyofMoneyTheFedcanshiftthemoneysupplycurve（改變貨幣供給曲線）totherightortotheleftthroughopen-marketoperations. ?WhentheFedbuysgovernmentbonds, bankreservesincreaseandthemoney supplyincreases. ?WhentheFedsellsgovernmentbonds, bankreservesdecreaseandthemoney supplydeclines.第六十五頁，共八十四頁。ShiftsintheSupplyofMoneyQuantityfixedbytheFedQuantityofMoneyInterestRate0Moneysupply,S1第六十六頁，共八十四頁。ShiftsintheSupplyofMoneyQuantityfixedbytheFedQuantityofMoneyInterestRate0Moneysupply,S1S2第六十七頁，共八十四頁。ShiftsintheSupplyofMoneyQuantityfixedbytheFedQuantityofMoneyInterestRate0Moneysupply,S1第六十八頁，共八十四頁。ShiftsintheSupplyofMoneyQuantityfixedbytheFedQuantityofMoneyInterestRate0Moneysupply,S1S3第六十九頁，共八十四頁。TheDemandforMoneyMoneydemandisdeterminedbyseveralfactors.

?Accordingtothetheoryofliquidity preference（流動偏好理論）,oneofthemostimportantfactorsistheinterestrate.第七十頁，共八十四頁。TheDemandforMoneyPeoplechoosetoholdmoneyinsteadofotherassetsthatofferhigherratesofreturnbecausemoneycanbeusedtobuygoodsandservices.第七十一頁，共八十四頁。TheDemandforMoneyTheopportunitycost（機會成本）

ofholdingmoneyistheinterestthatcouldbeearnedoninterest-earningassets.第七十二頁，共八十四頁。TheDemandforMoneyAnincreaseintheinterestrateraisestheopportunitycostofholdingmoney.第七十三頁，共八十四頁。TheDemandforMoneyAnincreaseintheinterestrateraisestheopportunitycostofholdingmoney.Asaresult,thequantityofmoneydemandedisreduced.第七十四頁，共八十四頁。TheDemandforMoneyQuantityofMoneyInterestRate0第七十五頁，共八十四頁。TheDemandforMoneyQuantityofMoneyInterestRate0Moneydemand第七十六頁，共八十四頁。EquilibriumintheMoneyMarket（貨幣市場的均衡）