計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)英文論文Graduatestoapplyforthequantitativeanalysisofchangesinnumberofgraduate

students

一、Topicsraised

Inthispaper,thetotalnumberofstudentsfromgraduatestudents(variable)multivariateanalysis(seebelow)specificanalysis,andcollectrelevantdata,modelbuilding,thisquantitativeanalysis.Thenumberofrelationsbetweentheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththemajorfactors,accordingtothesizeofthevariousfactorsinthecoefficientinthemodelequations,analyzetheimportanceofvariousfactors,exactlywhatfactorsinchangesinthenumberofgraduatestudentsaspectsplayakeyroleinandchangesinthetrendforfuturegraduatestudentstoourproposal.

Themainfactorsaffectchangesinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforstudentsareasfollows：

PercapitaGDP-whichisaffectinganimportantfactortothetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents(graduateschoolisnotasmallcost,andonlyhaveacertaineconomicbasehavemoreopportunitiesforpost-graduate)

Thetotalpopulation-itwillaffectthetotalnumberofstudentsingraduatestudentsisanimportantfactor(itcanbesaidtoaffectitisbasedonsource)

Thenumberofunemployedpersons-thisistheimpactofadirectfactorofthetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents(itispreciselybecauseofthehighunemploymentrate,willmorepeoplechooseKaoyanwillbetheirownemploymentweights)Numberofcollegesanduniversities-whichistoinfluencepreciselybecauseoftheemergenceofmoreinstitutionsofhigherlearningintheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsisnotasmallfactor(toallowmorepeopletoparticipateinKaoyan)

二、EstablishModel

Y=α+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+uAmongthem,the

Y-inthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents(variable)X1-percapitaGDP(explanatoryvariables)X2-thetotalpopulation(explanatoryvariables)

X3-thenumberofunemployedpersons(explanatoryvariables)X4-thenumberofcollegesanduniversities(explanatoryvariables)

三、Datacollection

1.dateExplain

Here,usingthesamearea(ie,China)time-seriesdatawerefitted

2.Datacollection

Timeseriesdatafrom1986to2023,thespecificcircumstancesareshowninTable1

四、Modelparameterestimation,inspectionandcorrection

1.Modelparameterestimationanditseconomicsignificance,statisticalinferencetest

twoway(scatterYX1)

twoway(scatterYX2)

twoway(scatterYX3)

twoway(scatterYX4)

twoway(scatterYX4)

graphtwowaylfityX2

graphtwowaylfityX3

graphtwowaylfityX4

Y=59.22454816*X1-7.158602346*X2-366.8774279*X3+621.3347694*X4

（6.352288）（3.257541）（157.9402）（46.72256）t=（9.323341）（-2.197548）（-2.322889）（13.29839）+270775.151（369252.8）（0.733306）

R2=0.996048AdjustedR-squared=0.994994F=945.1415

DW=1.596173

Visible,X1,X2,X3,X4tvaluesaresignificant,indicatingthatthepercapitaGDP,thetotalpopulationofregisteredurbanunemployedpopulation,thenumberofcollegesanduniversitiesarethemainfactorsaffectingthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsinschool.Modelcoefficientofdeterminationfor0.996048amendmentscoefficientofdeterminationof0.994994,wasrelativelylarge,indicatinghighdegreeofmodelfit,whiletheFvalueof945.1415,indicatingthatthemodeloverallissignificant。

Inaddition,thecoefficientofX1,X4,inlinewitheconomicsignificance,butthecoefficientofX2,X3,doesnotmeettheeconomicsignificance,becausefromaneconomicsense,withtheincreaseinthetotalpopulation(X2),thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsshouldbeincreased,andduetotheincreaseinthenumberofunemployed,therewillbemoreandmorepeoplechoosegraduateschool,sothatthetotalnumberofunemployedandgraduatestudentsshouldbepositivelycorrelated.X2,X3coefficientsigncontrarytoexpectations,whichmayindicatetheexistenceofseveremulticollinearity.

2.計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)檢驗

TheabovetablecanbeseentoexplainthepositivecorrelationbetweentheheightofthevariableX1andX2,X3,X4,X2,X1,X3,betweenthehighlypositivelycorrelated,showingthatthereisseriousmulticollinearity.Followingamendmentstepwiseregression：

Y=60.21976901*X1-61096.25048

（6.311944）（42959.23）

t=(9.540606)(-1.422191)AdjustedR-squared=0.825725F=91.02316

Y=27.05878289*X2-2993786.354

(5.622791)(680596.9)t=(4.812340)(-4.398766)R-squared=0.562668F=23.15862

Y=1231.659997*X3-371863.6509

(161.9045)(90051.37)t=(7.607324)(-4.129461)

AdjustedR-squared=0.749576F=57.87138

Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964(65.85948)(79072.71)

t=(15.99648)(-12.20236)

AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.8874

Theanalysisshowsthatthefoursimpleregressionmodel,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforthelinearrelationshipbetweenYcollegex4,goodnessoffit：Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964(65.85948)(79072.71)

t=(15.99648)(-12.20236)

AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.887

Y=714.1694264*X4+25.58237739*X1-708247.7381（48.45708）（2.930053）（45496.23）t=（14.73818）（8.731029）（-15.56718）

AdjustedR-squared=0.986606F=700.7988

Y=886.3583756*X4+8.974091045*X2-1852246.686

（55.52670）（1.837722）（189180.7）t=（15.96274）（4.883269）（-9.790886）

AdjustedR-squared=0.969430F=302.2581

Y=791.519267*X4+436.7502136*X3-885870.134

（69.64253）（90.10899）（55171.66）t=（11.36546）（4.846910）（-16.05662）AdjustedR-squared=0.969163F=299.5666

Bythedataanalysis,comparison,percapitaGDPofthenewentrantstotheX1equationoftheAdjustedR-squared=.986606

,Thelargestimprovement,andeachparameter,T-testsignificant,soIchosetoretaintheX1

Thenaddtheothernewvariablestothestepwiseregression:

五、Analysisandconclusionsof