電力系統(tǒng)預測技 第25EILAB 22

EI33

EIVeryshorttermloadforecasting(VSTLF)Shorttermloadforecasting(STLF)Mediumtermloadforecasting(MTLF)Longtermloadforecasting(LTLF)

4EI455

EIEI隨量，使用序列運算表示隨量之間的相EI

EIEI

定義對于任意序列a(i) i0,1,2,...,，其長度為NaEI

a(i) i0,1,2,...,

a(i)

離散型隨量的概率

EI

理 EI

解決數(shù)

EINxNaNbx(i) a(ia)b(ibiaib

x(i)a(i){(ia,ib)|0iaNa;0ibNb;s.t:iaib

EI隨隨隨隨隨隨I卷 卷 EI EI (1)減法不滿換律；(1)卷差運算不滿換律； EI

EI

EI Reliability：howclosethepredicteddistributionistotheactualone.Sharpness：howtightlythepredicteddistributioncoverstheactualone.Resolution:howmuchthepredictedintervalvariesovertime.

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