投資Investment6月固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)明顯加快1-63.8%，增速比0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。6月固定資產(chǎn)投資的同比增速、兩年平均增速、四年平均增3.2%、4.5%、5.2%51.3、1.3、1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。JuneChinafixedassetinvestmentgrewfaster.FromJanuarytoJune,accumulatedinvestmentinfixedassetsgrewby+3.8%0.5%higherthantheexpectedvalue.InJune,thetwo-yearaverage,andfour-yearaveragegrowthratesofinvestmentinfixedassetswere+3.2%,+4.5%,and+5.2%,respectively,whichwere1.3%,1.3%,and1.2%higherthanthatinMay.圖表1：固定資產(chǎn)投資當(dāng)月同比(,21年為兩年平均增速)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

圖表2：固定資產(chǎn)投資當(dāng)月同比(21與23年為兩年平均增速)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)固定資產(chǎn)投資 房地產(chǎn) 基建 制造業(yè) 固定資產(chǎn)投資 房地產(chǎn) 基建 制造業(yè)FixedAssetInvestment RealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing2520151050-5-10-15-20

FixedAsset2520151050-5-10-15-20

RealEstateInfrastructure

ManufacturingDec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23

Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF66月房地產(chǎn)、基建、制造業(yè)投資分別同比增長(zhǎng)-10.2%、12.3%、6.0%5月0.01.50.9-9.8%12.2%7.9%5月變化-0.8、2.8、1.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；分別四年平均增長(zhǎng)-1.6%、8.0%、7.0%，增速較5月變化-Intermsofmajorcategories,Junerealestateinvestmentgrewslower,whileinfrastructureinvestmentandmanufacturinginvestmentincreasedfaster.Specifically,thegrowthratesofinvestmentinrealestate,infrastructure,andmanufacturingwere-10.2%,+12.3%,and+6.0%inJune;whichchangedby0.0%,+1.5%,and+0.9%comparedwithrespectively.Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofinvestmentinrealestate,infrastructure,andmanufacturingwere-9.8%,+12.2%,and+7.9%,respectively,whichchangedby-0.8%,+2.9%,and+1.9%fromMay.Thefour-yearaveragegrowthratesofinvestmentinrealestate,infrastructure,andmanufacturingwere-1.6%,+8.0%,and+7.0%respectively,whichchangedby-1.2%,+1.7%,and+2.1%fromMay.房地產(chǎn)投資Realestateinvestment6月房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)指標(biāo)多數(shù)有所走弱。6月商品房銷售面積、房屋新開(kāi)工面積、房地產(chǎn)投資分別較019年同期下降0%9.%.4%1.6、4.7670月（上漲0%。-6月房屋施工面積同比下降6.6%，降幅擴(kuò)大4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；19.0%0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，但竣工表現(xiàn)仍相對(duì)較好。InJune,mostrealestate-relatedindicatorsweakened.ComparedwithJune2019,thegrowthratesofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssold,ofthefloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedandoftheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentwere-26.0%,-59.9%and-6.4%inJune,respectively,whichwere6.1%,0.6%and4.7%lowerthanTheSalesPriceIndicesofNewlyConstructedCommercialResidentialBuildingsin70LargeandMedium-SizedCitiesdecreasedby0.1%MoMinJune,weakerthanMay(increasedby0.1%MoM).FromJanuarytoJune,thegrowthrateoffloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionwas-6.6%,0.4%lowerthanJanuarytoThefloorspaceofbuildingscompletedincreasedby+19.0%0.6%lowerthanthepreviousmonth,butitsperformancewasstillrelativelygood.圖表3(,2021monthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

圖表4：房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)指標(biāo)當(dāng)月值相對(duì)于2019年同期的增()ChangeratesofRealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthcomparedtothesameperiodin2019,FloorspaceofbuildingssoldYoYFloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoYInvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY

Growthrateoffloorspacesold(comparedto2019)Growthrateoffloorspacenewlystarted(comparedto2019)Growthrateofrealestateinvestment(comparedto2019)20100-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23

3020100-10-20-30-40-50-60-70Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF圖表5(，剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng))CurrentyearcumulativefloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionandcompletedYoY(excludingbase

圖表6：70個(gè)大中城市新建住宅價(jià)格比()70MajorCitiesNewHousingPricesMoM20151050-5-10-15-20-25

FloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionFloorspaceofbuildingscompletedYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

1.00.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8

70城 一線 二線 三線70Cities Tier1 Tier2 Tier3Feb-18Dec-18Oct-19Aug-20Jun-21Apr-22Feb-23 Jan-19Sep-19May-20Jan-21Sep-21May-22Jan-23資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF730大中城市商品房年下半年以來(lái)房地產(chǎn)回212019年同期的增速也大體呈現(xiàn)筑底特征。因此，房地產(chǎn)進(jìn)一步下行空間不大。Therealestateindustrystillfacessomepressure,butfurtherdownwardspaceislimited.Sincethefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcitieshasfurtherdeclined,andtherealestateindustrystillfacesdownwardpressure.Since2021H2,therealestateindustryhasexperiencedatwo-yearpullback.Thegrowthratesofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandnewlystartedhasgenerallyshownabottomingoutfeatureinthepastoneyear,comparedwiththesameperiod2019.Therefore,thereisnotmuchroomforfurtherdeclineinrealestateindustry.預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月房地產(chǎn)投資增速可能小幅回落710714央行貨幣政策司司長(zhǎng)表示“過(guò)去在市場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期過(guò)熱階段陸續(xù)出臺(tái)的政策存在邊際優(yōu)化Thegrowthrateofrealestateinvestmentmaymoderatelydeclineinthecomingmonths.OnJuly10th,ThePeople'sBankofChinaandtheStateAdministrationofFinancialRegulationnotifiedtheextensionofthepolicyperiodrelatedtofinancialsupportforthestableandhealthydevelopmentoftherealestateindustry.OnJuly14th,thedirectoroftheMonetaryPolicyDepartmentofthePBOCstatedthat"thereismarginaloptimizationspaceforrealestatepoliciesintroducedinthepastduringtheperiodoflong-termmarketoverheating",whichmeansthatrealestatepoliciesmightbefurthereased.Withpolicysupport,thefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldisexpectedtobottomoutin2023H2.However,consideringthelaggingeffectofasharpdecreaseinthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingsnewlystartedInthepastfewmonths,thegrowthrateoftheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentmaystillslightlydeclinein2023H2.1.2基建投資Infrastructureinvestment6月基建投資增長(zhǎng)明顯快1-6月建資比長(zhǎng)10.7增提高0.7個(gè)百點(diǎn)其，6月建投同長(zhǎng)12.3增速高1.5百點(diǎn)。JuneInfrastructureinvestmentgrewatafasterpace.FromJanuarytoJune,accumulatedinfrastructureinvestmentincreasedby10.7%0.7%higherthanthatinJanuary-May.InJune,infrastructureinvestmentincreasedby12.3%whichwas1.5%higherthanthatin利境公設(shè)管理的定產(chǎn)資兩年均增速為20.9、7.86.8，速高1.6、0.9、0.5百點(diǎn)。Intermsofindustries,fromJanuarytoJune,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofaccumulatedinvestmentintheProductionandSupplyofElectricity,GasandWater,intheTransportation,StorageandPost,andintheManagementofWaterConservancy,EnvironmentandPublicFacilitieswere20.9%,7.8%and6.8%,whichchangedby+1.6%,+0.9%,and+0.5%comparedwithJanuary-May.預(yù)計(jì)下半年基建投資保持較快增長(zhǎng)。二季度國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)低于預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)Infrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2.Chinaeconomyfellbehindexpectationsin2023Q2,andmoreeconomicstabilizingpoliciesareexpected.Investmentininfrastructurewouldstillbeacrucialtooltostabilizetheeconomyandisexpectedtospeedup.圖表7(，2021InfrastructureInvestmentYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

圖表8(,2021yearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoYbycategory(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)CurrentyearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoYInfrastructureInvestmentinasinglemonthYoY20151050-5

ProductionandSupplyofElectricity,GasandWaterTransport,StorageandPost30 ManagementofWaterConservancy,EnvironmentandPublicFacilities20100-10-15-20-25-30Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

-10-20-30Feb-19Aug-19Feb-20Aug-20Feb-21Aug-21Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF1.3制造業(yè)投資Manufacturinginvestment6月制造業(yè)投資增速有所提高，預(yù)計(jì)下半年制造業(yè)投資增長(zhǎng)小幅加快。1-6月6.0%1-5月制造業(yè)投資同比增6.0%50.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。InvestmentinmanufacturingindustrygrewfasterinJune,andthegrowthmayslightlyacceleratein2023H2.FromJanuarytoJune,accumulatedinvestmentinmanufacturingindustryincreasedby6.0%whichwasthesameasthatinJanuary-May.InJune,theinvestmentinmanufacturingindustrywas+6.0%YoY,0.9%higherthanMay.今年-5月份制造業(yè)利潤(rùn)總額同比下降2.%40.3%有利于制造業(yè)投資增長(zhǎng)。預(yù)計(jì)下半年制造業(yè)投資增長(zhǎng)小幅加快。FromJanuarytoMay2023,thetotalprofitofthemanufacturingindustrygrewby-23.7%whichisnotconducivetothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.However,policiesstronglysupportthedevelopmentofthemanufacturingindustry.BytheendofJune,thegrowthrateofmid&long-termloanbalancestothemanufacturingindustrywasashighas+40.3%,whichisfavorabletothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.Itisexpectedthatthegrowthofmanufacturinginvestmentwillmoderatelyquickenin2023H2.圖表9(，21InvestmentinmanufacturingindustryYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

圖表10：制造業(yè)中長(zhǎng)期貸款與利潤(rùn)增速（）Outstandingmid&long-termloansandtotalprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY3020100-10-20-30-40

CurrentyearcumulativeinvestmentinmanufacturingYoY Outstandingmid&long-termLoanstomanufacturingindustryYoYManufacturingindustryinvestmentinasinglemonthYoY CurrentyearcumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY50403020100-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22

Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF下半年固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)有望小幅加快。Tosummarize,althoughthereisstillsomedownwardpressureonrealestateindustry,thegrowthofinvestmentininfrastructureandmanufacturingmayaccelerate.Thegrowthoffixedassetsinvestmentisexpectedtomoderatelyimprovedin2023H2.消費(fèi)Consumption剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng)，6月消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)有所加快。6月社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額當(dāng)月同比增3.1%0.43.1%、4.0%50.6、0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。Juneconsumptiongrewatafasterpace,excludingthebaseeffect.Thetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodsincreasedby+3.1%0.4%lowerthanexpected.Excludingthebaseeffect,thetwo-yearandfour-yearaveragegrowthratesofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswere+3.1%and4.0%inJunerespectively,0.6%and0.5%higherthanMay.分大類來(lái)看1.7%16.1%；分別兩年2.8%、5.6%0.3、2.34.1%、0.41.06月餐飲收入增速的提高相對(duì)于商品零售更為顯著，這可能意味著疫情對(duì)服務(wù)消費(fèi)的抑制明顯減弱。不過(guò)，餐飲收入的四年平均增速仍明顯低于商品零售，反映服務(wù)消費(fèi)的恢復(fù)仍未完成。Bycategories,Juneretailsalesofcommoditiesandincomeofcateringindustryroseby1.7%and16.1%respectively;thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateswere2.8%and5.6%respectively,whichwere0.3%and2.3%higherthanMay;thefour-yearaveragegrowthrateswere4.1%and3.2%respectively,whichwere0.4%and1.0%higherthanMay.TheincreaseinthegrowthrateofincomeofcateringindustryinJunewasmorethanthatofretailsalesofcommodities,whichmayindicatethatthesuppressionofserviceconsumptionbytheepidemicsignificantlyweakened.However,thefour-yearaveragegrowthrateofincomeofcateringindustryisstillsignificantlylowerthanthatofretailsalesofcommodities,reflectingthattherecoveryofserviceconsumptionhasnotyetbeencompleted.圖表11：社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額的增速（，剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng)TotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoY(excludingbaseeffect)

圖表12：商品零售與餐飲收入當(dāng)月同比（，剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng)）CommodityRetailandIncomeofCateringIndustryYoY(excludingbaseeffect)20.015.010.05.00.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0

RetailSalesYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthrateinand2023)RetailSalesYoY(two-year,four-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023,respectively)

CommodityRetailYoY IncomeofCateringIndustryYoY(twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023,respectively)151050-5-10-15-20-25-30Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF從限額以上企業(yè)零售數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看6月多數(shù)類別商品零售額增速明顯回升3.8%、6.1%9.2、4.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。耐用品消費(fèi)明顯改善。Bycategories,thegrowthrateoftheretailsalesformostcategoriesofgoodsinJunehassignificantlyrebounded.Basedonthedatafromenterprisesabovethedesignatedsize,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesoftheretailsalesofhouseholdappliancesandmotorvehicleswere3.8%and6.1%respectively,whichwere9.2%and4.0%higherthanMay.Theconsumptionofdurablegoodsimprovedsignificantly.圖表13：限額以上企業(yè)消費(fèi)品零售總額當(dāng)月值的兩年平均增速及其相對(duì)于上月的變化（）Two-yearaveragegrowthrateofConsumerGoodRetailSalesofenterprisesabovethedesignatedsize,bycategory()Two-yearaveragegrowthrateofRetailSalesofConsumerGoods Changeofgrowthratecomparedwiththelastmonth8.0 -6.0-4.08.0 -6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.05.25.08.0 10.0-0.9-2.8-5.9TotalCommodityIncomeofCateringIndustrySportsandamusementsMedicinesGold,silverandTobaccoandliquorFoodTelecommunicationequipmentMotorvehiclesPetroleumproductsClothes,shoes,hatsandtextilesHouseholdappliancesBeverageDailynecessitiesCulturalandofficeappliancesFurnitureBuildinganddecorationmaterials資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF二季度居民收入增長(zhǎng)有所加快。上半年全國(guó)居民人均可支配收入累計(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)6.5%1.40.30.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。Thegrowthofresidents'incomeacceleratedinthesecondquarter.In2023H1,thenationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentsincreasedby6.5%1.4%higherthanthatin2023Q1,partlyduetothelowbaseeffect.In2023Q2,thenationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentsgrewbyanaverageof6.7%overthepastfouryears,0.3%higherthanthefirstquarterand0.9%higherthanthethree-yearaveragegrowthratein2022Q4.圖表14：居民收入與消費(fèi)增速（，剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng)）ThegrowthratesofResidentsIncomeandConsumption

圖表15：居民收入增速與城鎮(zhèn)調(diào)查失業(yè)率（）UnemploymentRateandthegrowthratesofIncomeCurrentyearaccumulativeResidentsIncomeYoY QuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoY (two-year,three-year,12840-4-12-16-20

CurrentyearaccumulativeRetailSalesYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and

four-yearaveragegrowthratein2021,2022andQuarterlyUnemploymentRate(rightaxis)1086420

6.05.25.04.24.0Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23 Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF預(yù)計(jì)下半年消費(fèi)溫和回升。居民收入主要取決于就業(yè)。65.2%5.2%0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比去0.4趨于降低，而居民收入增長(zhǎng)趨于加快。下半年國(guó)內(nèi)服務(wù)消費(fèi)繼續(xù)溫和修復(fù)，服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)將進(jìn)一步增加，失業(yè)率可能小幅回落，居民收入增長(zhǎng)或?qū)⑿》涌?。服?wù)消費(fèi)的修復(fù)與居民收入的加快增長(zhǎng)將推動(dòng)下半年消費(fèi)溫和回升。Itisexpectedthattheconsumptionwillmoderatelyrecoverin2023H2.Residents'incomemainlydependsonemployment.TheurbansurveyedunemploymentrateinJunewas5.2%,unchangedfromthepreviousmonth;Theaverageunemploymentrateinthesecondquarterwas5.2%,0.3%lowerthanthefirstquarterand0.4%lowerthan2022Q4.Overall,aftertheoptimizationofdomesticepidemicpreventionpolicies,theunemploymentratetendstodecrease,whilethegrowthofresidents'incometendstoaccelerate.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,domesticserviceconsumptionwillcontinuetorecovermoderately,employmentintheserviceindustrywillfurtherincrease,unemploymentratemayslightlydecline,andresidentincomegrowthmayslightlyaccelerate.Therecoveryofserviceconsumptionandtheacceleratinggrowthofresidents'incomewilldriveamildreboundinconsumptionin2023H2.IndustrialProduction需求回升與庫(kù)存回補(bǔ)推動(dòng)6月工業(yè)生產(chǎn)顯著加快。6月工業(yè)增加值同比增長(zhǎng)4.4%1.950.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng)，6月工業(yè)增加值兩年平均增長(zhǎng)1%5月提高2.0Improvedaggregatedemandandinventoryreplenishmentresultedinafastergrowthofvalue-addedofindustriesinJune.Thegrowthrateofvalue-addedofindustrieswas+4.4%inJune,1.9%higherthanexpectedand0.9%higherthanMay.Excludingthebaseeffect,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofvalue-addedofindustrieswas+4.1%,2.0%higherthanMay.6月投資與消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)有所加快，但出口降幅有所擴(kuò)大，需求的恢復(fù)幅度小于工業(yè)生產(chǎn)的增長(zhǎng)幅度。因此，需求的企穩(wěn)回升只是工業(yè)生產(chǎn)顯著加快的原因之一，另一個(gè)原因可能是企業(yè)回補(bǔ)庫(kù)存?？梢杂∽C的是，6月工業(yè)企業(yè)產(chǎn)銷率為95.7%，明顯低于5月96.6%的水平。TheinvestmentandconsumptiongrewfasterinJune,buttheexportsweakened.Theimprovedaggregatedemandwasonereasonforacceleratedgrowthofvalue-addedofindustries,whiletheotherreasonmayberestocking,whichcanbepartlyconfirmedbythattheproductionandsalesrateofindustrialenterprisesdropped0.9%to95.7%inJune.從主要產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量來(lái)看，6月鋼材、水泥、平板玻璃、汽車、十種有色金屬產(chǎn)量5.4%、-1.5%、-7.6%、0.8%、6.1%、10.2%，分別1.5%-7.4%-3.9%13.1%4.6%-0.2%5月3.3、1.7、1.0、7.4、0.4、-1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。Fromtheperspectiveofmajorproductsoutput,thegrowthratesoftheoutputofsteel,cement,flatglass,automobiles,tenkindsofnon-ferrousmetals,andcrudeoilprocessedinJunewere5.4%,-1.5%,-7.6%,+0.8%,+6.1%,and+10.2%,respectively,andthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateswere1.5%,-7.4%,-3.9%,13.1%,4.6%and-0.2%,respectively,whichchangedby+3.3%,+1.7%,+1.0%,+7.4%,+0.4%,and-1.6%fromMay.4%左右的水平。Thedomesticeconomicrecoveryisrelativelymild,indicatingthatthereplenishmentofinventorywillnotsustainforalongtime.However,domesticinvestmentandconsumptiondemandareexpectedtoimprovemoderatelyin2023H2.Itisexpectedthatthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofvalue-addedofindustrieswillmaintainaround4%in2023H2.圖表16：工業(yè)增加值當(dāng)月同比增速（）Value-addedofIndustriesAboveDesignatedSizeYoY

圖表17：工業(yè)品產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比（,21與23為兩年平均增速）OutputofMajorProductsYoY(excludingbaseeffect)Value-addedofIndustriesAboveDesignatedSizeYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)

鋼材 水泥 汽車 有色金屬 原油加工量Steel Cement AutomobileNon-ferrous CrudeOil151050-5-10-15

50403020100-10-20-30-40-50-60

(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and

ProcessedFeb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 May-23資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF服務(wù)業(yè)ServiceIndustry6月服務(wù)業(yè)生產(chǎn)有所加快，下半年將進(jìn)一步溫和修復(fù)。6月服務(wù)業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)同1.1ServiceindustryproductionacceleratedinJuneandmayrecoverfurtherin2023H2.JuneIndexofServiceProduction(ISP)increasedby+6.8%andthetwo-yearaveragegrowthratewas+4.0%,1.1%higherthanThereisstillroomforrecoveryintheserviceindustry.AstheCOVIDsubsides,theproductionoftheserviceindustrywillfurtherrecoverinthesecondhalfoftheyear.圖表18：服務(wù)業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)當(dāng)月同比增速（）IndexofServicesProductionYoY(excludebaseeffect)

圖表19：服務(wù)業(yè)商務(wù)活動(dòng)指數(shù)（）BusinessActivityIndexofServiceIndustryIndexofServicesProductionYoY(two-yeargrowthratein2021and2023)IndexofServicesProductionYoY(two-yeargrowthratein2021and2023)6010555 50

BusinessActivityIndexofServiceIndustry0 45-5 40-10 35-15Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

30Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSFGDP二季度GDP明顯低于預(yù)期GDP同比增長(zhǎng)6.3%%；3.3%4.6%的增速。分大類看，第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)當(dāng)季GDP5.2%、7.4%3.0%、3.4%，增速較一季度1.5、1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。ChinaGDPin2023Q2waslowerthanexpected.ThegrowthrateofGDPin2023Q2was6.3%,0.5%lowerthanexpected;thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratewas3.3%,1.3%lowerthan2023Q1.Byindustry,thegrowthratesofthevalueaddedoftheprimaryindustryandtertiaryindustrywere5.2%and7.4%respectively,andthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateswere3.0%and3.4%respectively,1.5%and1.3%lowerthan2023Q1.圖表20：GDP當(dāng)季同比（）QuarterlyGDPYoY

圖表21GDP，2123GDPYoY,byindustry(excludingbase20.016.012.08.04.00.0-4.0-8.0

GDP:當(dāng)季同比QuarterlyGDPYoY

10.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0

GDP 第二產(chǎn)業(yè) 第三產(chǎn)業(yè)SecondaryIndustry TertiaryIndustry(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and202