July

2023FutureEnergyScenariosPagenavigationexplainedBacka

pageForwarda

pageTo

help

you

?nd

the

information

you

needquickly

and

easily

we

have

published

thereport

as

aninteractive

document.Return

to

contentsFrom

hereyou

cannavigate

to

any

part

ofthe

publicationDownload

the

PDF

in

Acrobat

Readerto

view

all

interactivity.Tex

tLinksClick/tap

highlighted

orangetexttonavigatetoan

external

link.

Or

to

jumptoanother

sectionofthe

document.DownloadapdfTo

download

a

fullcopy

ofthis

report

go

to/future-energy/future-energy-scenariosForeword0405ExecutiveSummary:

Key

messages,energyflowdiagramsandthemainthingsyou

needto

knowIntroduction:WhatisFES

andwhat’s

newfor20231931NetZero:How

we

reflecttheUK’s

legislatedtargettodecarboniseby

2050TheEnergy

Consumer:How

individualendusersinteract64withtheirenergyIntroductionandkey

insightsConsumerenergydemandResidential657177Transport85Industrial90Commercial93ConsumerarchetypesHydrogenandelectrification95100TheEnergy

System:How

differentenergysourcesinteract103to

meetenduserdemandandprovidevalueto

consumersIntroductionandkey

insightsSupplyanddemandElectricitysupply104109125147157165171173LowcarbonhydrogensupplyNaturalgasBioenergyStrategicnetworkinvestmentConnectionsFlexibility:How

energydemandandsupplyarebalancedat176alltimesto

ensuresystem

securityGlossary219222223Continuingthe

ConversationLegalNoticeTwo

yearsago,

theGovernmentannounceditsintentionfortheButthedecarbonisationof

theenergysystemisonlyoneof

thechallengesthatwe

face.Thedevastationcausedby

theillegalRussianinvasionof

Ukrainehascreatedglobaluncertaintyinenergymarkets.It

hasdepletedsupplychains,restrictedaccessto

fossilfuelsandexacerbatedacost-of-livingcrisiswhichcontinuesto

impacteveryoneacrossGreatBritain.Thisyear’s

Future

EnergyScenarioscontinuetosetoutcredibleways

thattheUKcanachievenetzeroby

2050,

aswell

astheUKGovernment’scommitmentto

adecarbonisedelectricitysystemby2035.

Basedonextensivestakeholderengagement,researchandmodelling,eachscenarioconsidershowmuchenergywe

mightneed,whereitcouldcomefromandhow

we

continueto

maintainoutstandinglevels

ofsystem

reliability.electricitysystemto

befullydecarbonisedby

2035.

ThisambitioustargetreinforcedGreatBritain’s

existinggloballeadershipinenablinglowcarbonelectricitygeneration.The2035targetgivesusjustover

adecadeto

deliveraworld-first,butitrequiresamajortransitionacrossindustry,

regulationandgovernmentpolicy–achallengethatwe

needtomeetheadon.Thescaleandsignificanceof

theseparallelchallengeshighlightstheongoingchallengeof

balancingtheopportunitiesof

decarbonisationwiththerequirementforenergysecurityandaccessto

affordablepower

forconsumersandbusinesses.WhatisclearisthatGreatBritaincannotaddressthistrilemmawithoutsustained,collaborativeaction.Our2023

Future

EnergyScenarioshighlightonekeyoveralltheme–we

mustactnow

to

achieve

aclean,secureandfairenergysystemforall.

If

we

don’t,aonceinalifetimeopportunitywill

passusby.GreatBritainalsocontinuesto

take

stridestowardsthe2050

netzerotarget.Businessesof

thenetzeroeconomyaredrivingproductivity,contributingover￡70bn

to

GreatBritaineveryyear.

Regionsandlocalauthoritiesareseeingevidenceof

thegrowthopportunitythatdecarbonisationpresents.Maintainingthisgrowthreliesoncleanenergybeingavailable–energyispart

of

almosteveryproductorservicethattheBritisheconomyrelieson.AstheElectricitySystemOperator(ESO),

we

aredrivingthechangesneededtoachieve

the2035and2050

targetsandnow

operateoneof

thefastestdecarbonisingelectricitysystemsintheworld.Overthecoming12-18

monthstheESO

will

transitioninto

theFuture

SystemOperator–takingabroader,wholesystemviewonhow

GreatBritaincandeliveronitsnetzeroambitionswhilemaintainingareliableandaffordableenergysupply.

We

lookforwardto

workingwiththeGovernment,Ofgemandindustryduringthisperiodto

ensuretheFuture

SystemOperatorissetupforsuccessandtheeffectivedeliveryof

thiscriticalroleforsocietyandtheeconomy.Lastwinter,

workingwiththeGovernment,Ofgemandindustry,

we

ledthedevelopmentof

aworldfirstDemandFlexibilityService.Overamillionhouseholdsweresignedupto

theschemethroughtheirelectricitysupplier,

witheligibleconsumersreceivingpaymentstoreduceelectricityconsumptionduringtighterperiodsontheelectricitysystem–demonstratingtheimpactthatinnovation

canhave

aswe

decarbonise.E

xecutiveSummar

yIntroductionOurFuture

EnergyScenarios(FES)

outlinefourdifferentpathwaysforthefutureof

thewholeenergysystemoutto

2050.Eachoneconsidershow

muchenergywe

mightneedandwhereitcouldcomefrom,to

buildapictureof

theways

inwhichGreatBritaincouldreachnetzero.TheScenario

FrameworkLEADINGTHEWAY?

FastestcredibledecarbonisationCONSUMERTRANSFORMATION?

Signi?cantlifestylechange?

Mixtureofhydrogenandelectri?cationforheating?

Electri?edheating?

ConsumerswillingtochangebehaviourFES

iswidelyusedby

theESO

andourStakeholderfeedbackiscollectedaspartofourcomprehensiveengagementworkandincorporatedalongsideourown

analysisandresearchto

ensurethatourdataandinsightsremainrobustandupto

date.

We

alsoendeavourto

make

ourdatapubliclyavailable.?

Highenergyef?ciency?

Demandside?exibilitystakeholdersacrosstheenergyindustryto:?

UnderpinenergynetworkinvestmentSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONNETZEROBY2050?

Supportfinancialinvestmentdecisionsfornetzerotechnologies?

Hydrogenforheating?

Consumerslessinclinedtochangebehaviour?

Lowerenergyef?ciency?

Supplyside?exibility?

InformnationalandregionalpolicyFES

inFive

providesyou

withtheKeyMessagesandstatisticsfromthefullFESreport,whichcanbefoundhere.FALLINGSHORT?Slowestcredibledecarbonisation?

Carryoutacademicresearchandinnovation?Minimal

behaviour

change?Decarbonisationinpower

andtransportbut

not

heatRecenteventshavesparkedrecognitionofthe

importance

ofafastertransition

tonetzero.Thiscan

support

energy

security

and

reduceexposuretovolatileinternationalfossilfuel

prices,by

harnessingabundant

renewableand

lowcarbonresources.SPEEDOFDECARBONISATIONSLOWFASTIn

linewithstakeholderfeedback,thescenarioframeworkremainsthesameasinFES

2022.

Allscenariosmeettherelevantsecurityof

supplystandardsacrossthedifferentfuelsineveryyear.More

on

the

Future

Energy

ScenariosConsumerTransformationSystemTransformationThenetzerotargetismetin2050

withmeasuresthathave

agreaterimpactonconsumersandisdrivenby

higherlevels

of

consumerengagement.Theywill

have

madeextensivechangesto

improve

theirhome’s

energyefficiencyandmostof

theirelectricitydemandwill

besmartlycontrolledto

provideflexibilityto

thesystem.

Atypicalhomeownerwill

useanelectricheatpumpwithalow

temperatureheatingsystemandanElectricVehicle

(EV).Thesystem

will

have

higherpeakelectricitydemandsmanagedwithflexibletechnologiesincludingenergystorage,DemandSideResponse(DSR)andsmartenergymanagement.Thenetzerotargetismetin2050.

Thetypicaldomesticconsumerwill

experiencelesschangethaninConsumerTransformation

asmoreof

thesignificantchangesintheenergysystemhappenonthesupplyside.Atypicalconsumerwill

useahydrogenboilerwithamostlyunchangedheatingsystemandanElectricVehicle

orafuelcellvehicle.Theywillhave

hadfewer

energyefficiencyimprovementsto

theirhomeandwill

belesslikely

toprovideflexibilityto

thesystem.

Total

hydrogendemandishigh,mostlyproducedfromnaturalgaswithCarbonCapture,UsageandStorage(CCUS).LeadingtheWayFallingShortThenetzerotargetismetby

2046.We

assumethatGBdecarbonisesrapidlywithhighlevels

of

investmentinworld-leadingdecarbonisationtechnologies.Ourassumptionsindifferentareasof

decarbonisationarepushedto

theearliestcredibledates.Consumersarehighlyengagedinreducingandmanagingtheirown

energyconsumption.Thisscenarioincludesmoreenergyefficiencyimprovementsto

drivedown

energydemand,withhomesretrofittedwithmeasuressuchastripleglazingandexternalwall

insulation,andasteepincreaseinsmartenergyservices.Hydrogenisusedto

decarbonisesomeofthemostchallengingareassuchassomeindustrialprocesses,producedThisscenariodoesnotmeetthenetzeroby

2050

target.Thereisstillprogressondecarbonisationcomparedto

today,

however

itisslower

thanintheotherscenarios.Whilehomeinsulationimproves,thereisstillheavyrelianceonnaturalgas,particularlyfordomesticheating.ElectricVehicle

take-upgrows

moreslowly,

displacingpetrolanddieselvehiclesfordomesticuse.Decarbonisationof

othervehiclesisslower

stillwithcontinuedrelianceondieselforHeavyGoodsVehicles

(HGVs).

In

2050

thisscenariostillhassignificantannualcarbonemissions,shortof

the2050

netzerotarget.mostlyfromelectrolysispoweredby

renewableelectricity.Key

MessagePolicy

and

deliveryKey

recommendationsMeasuresto

reduceuncertaintyareneededto

ensuretheUKdeliversanetzerowholeenergysystemthatisaffordableandsecure.CO2H2Recentglobalevents

have

ledto

highenergypricesandconcernsover

securityof

supply.

Globaleconomicpressureisincreasingtheneedto

reduceuncertaintyforinvestorsandconsumers,andavoid

delaysNetzeropolicyFocusonheatNegativeemissionsindeliveryandinstallationof

netzerotechnologies.TheGovernmentmustcontinueto

reduceinvestmentuncertaintyaroundthebusinesscasefornetzerocriticaltechnologiessuchasLongDurationEnergyStorage(LDES),Thereisaneed

to

accelerateboththeuptakeofheatpumpsandthedecisiononwhetherhydrogenwillbeusedforlargescaleheating.Negativeemissionstechnologyisrequiredto

enableanetzerowholeenergysystem.Robustemissionsaccountingstandardsareneededto

ensurebothinvestorandpublicconfidenceinanegativeemissionsmarket.Furtherpolicysupportandincentivesareneededto

increaseuptakeratesofheatpumps.Hydrogen

and

gas

CCUSpowergeneration

capacityreaches

12.3

GW

by2035

inSystem

TransformationResidentialheatpumpinstallationsrangefrom0.3millionto

1.5

millionper

yearacrossallscenariosin2030transportandstorageofhydrogenandCO

,2lowcarbondispatchablepowerandnegativeemissionstechnologies.Furtherdemonstrationofinnovativeemissionsreductiontechnologiesisrequiredto

reduceuncertaintiesovertechnologyandcommercialreadiness.Acleardecisiononhydrogenforheatingshouldbeacceleratedandheatpumptargetsandincentivesreviewedaccordingly.AclearplanisneededforthefundinganddevelopmentofhydrogenandCarbonCapture,UseandStorageprojectsbeyonddeliveryofthefirstindustrialclusters.H212-56

TWh

ofinter-seasonalstorageisrequiredarossournetzeroscenariosin2050RemovalofBECCSandDACCSfromournetzeroscenariosleavesresidualemissionsof18-49MtCO

e2annuallyin2050Key

MessageConsumer

and

digitalisationKey

recommendationsConsumerbehaviouranddigitalisationarepivotalto

achievingnetzerobuteasyaccessto

informationandtherightincentivesarecritical.ABCConsumerengagementplaysacrucialroleinthetransitiontowards

asustainableandsecurewholeenergysystem,

whilereducingenergycosts.Provisionof

informationandincentivesenablesconsumerstobecomeanactivepartnerinthedeliveryof

netzero.EmpoweringchangeDigitalisationand

innovationEnergyef?ciencyThere

isa

need

to

instiltrustfor

consumersin

energy

markets

and

emerging

technologiesand

services.

Consumers

must

be

guidedon

how

they

can

best

engagein

the

energytransition.

This

could

be

delivered

through

aninformationcampaign,

supported

bya

nationaladviceservice.Innovationandsmart

digitalsolutionsarerequiredto

enableconsumersto

furtherbenefitfromenergysavingsattimeswhentheyarenotableto

manuallyadjusttheirdemand.Key

to

thiswillbedevelopingconsumertrustindataprivacy.Furtheremphasisisneededto

harnessthepotentialofefficiencyimprovementsinreducingenergydemand.Energyefficiencyimprovementsto

theconstructionandtechnologywithinourhomesmustbeaccelerated.A9.5TWh

dropinelectricitydemandwasseen

between2021

and2022inresponsetothecostoflivingcrisisHeatdemandreductionof127TWh

isachievedinLeadingtheWay

in2050throughhigherbuildingstandardsandbehaviouralchangeSmart

digitalsolutionswillenableeffortlessconsumerparticipationinthedeliveryofanetzerowholeenergysystem.Mandatingtechnologymanufacturersto

includesmart

capabilityintheirproductsiskey

to

thedeliveryofsmart

homes.Radicaloverhaulisrequiredto

achievethisbothinnewbuildandexistinghousingstock.Targets

forminimumenergyefficiencystandardsshouldextendbeyondtheprivaterentedsector.Ensuringtransparent,

comparable

and

simpleinformation

about

products

and

services

wouldenable

consumers

to

benefit

from

cost

savingsand

maximise

the

system

benefits.Consumerswill

be

further

incentivised

togreater

levels

of

demand

reduction

throughmarket

changes

that

simplifythe

consumerjourney

and

reward

flexible

energy

use.Additionalincentivesandgrantsmustbeconsideredto

ensureenergyefficiencyimprovementsareavailableformoreconsumers.SuccessfuldeliveryofMarket-wideHalfHourlySettlementwillenableconsumerstoparticipatemorereadilyindemandflexibility.The

Demand

Flexibility

Serviceevent

on

23rd

January

2023delivered

a

324

MWreduction

indemand

over

a

half

hour

periodResidentialdemandforlightingandappliancesreducesto47

TWh

inLeadingtheWayin2050Key

MessageMarkets

and

?exibilityKey

recommendationsImprovedmarketsignalsandnewdistributed?exibilitysolutionsarekey

to

managingasecure,netzerowholeenergysystematlowest

costto

theconsumer.Deliveryof

therequiredgrowthinflexibilitywill

dependonkey

enablerssuchasmarketreform,digitalisationandinnovation.Distributed

?exibilityTranspor

t?exibilityLocationalsignalsThegrowthofdistributedflexibility(flexibleenergydemandresources,suchasstorage,EVs,heatpumpsandthermalstorage,connectedatdistributionlevel)isakeyenablerofnetzero.Acrossallfuturescenarios,carsareprimarilyelectrified,increasingelectricitydemandandrequiringstrategiesto

managehowtheyarechargedandhowsystemcostsarerecovered.Marketreformisneededto

providethereal-timelocationalsignalsrequiredtooptimisedecisionsonwhenandwhereflexibleenergysourcesareused.47

GW

ofelectricitystorageisoperatingby2050inConsumerTransformation,with18

GWconnectedatdistributionlevelAfterthe2030s,V2Gcouldcontribute20GW

ofDemandSideResponseinImprovinglocationalsignalshasthepotentialto

deliversignificantcostsavingsto

consumersandsupportthedeliveryofdecarbonisationtargets.Amarket-widestrategy,

includingIncreasingimplementationofsmart

EVchargingisalow-regretactionto

helpreducetheimpactonpeakdemandandreducecurtailmentofrenewables.LeadingtheWaygovernmenttargets,policysupportandmarketreformisrequiredto

facilitatethesignificantgrowthindistributedflexibility.Thiscanalsoprovideincentivesforconsumersto

provideDemandSideResponse,suchassmart

chargingofEVs.CommercialtrialsofVehicle-to-Grid(V2G)businessmodelsarerequiredto

exploretheirviabilityandcontributionto

systemservices.Italsorequirescurrentchallengesto

beaddressed,suchastheslowrolloutofcharginginfrastructure.Demand

Side

Response

fromresidential,

industrial

andcommercial

consumers

reachesover

13

GWin

ConsumerTransformationin

2050Smart

chargingofEVscontributesa60%reductioninpeakdemandinLeadingtheWay

in2050Key

MessageInfrastructure

and

whole

energysystemKey

recommendationsBene?tsto

thewholeenergysystemmustbeconsideredto

optimisethecostof

deliveringnetzerotechnologyandinfrastructure.Strategiccoordinationandwholeenergysystemthinkingacrossallsectorsisrequiredto

achievedecarbonisationtargetsandavoid

unmanageablenetworkconstraintsandpotentialcurtailment.StrategicnetworkinvestmentConnectionsreformLocationoflargeelectricity

demandsStrategicandtimelyinvestmentacrossthewholeenergysystemiscriticalto

achievingdecarbonisationtargetsandminimisingnetworkconstraints.Connectionsreformisrequiredto

facilitatequicker,

morecoordinatedandefficientconnectionto

theGBelectricitysystemto

delivernetzero.Newlargeelectricitydemands,includingelectrolysersto

convertelectricitytohydrogen,willberequiredfornetzero.Thisdemandhassignificantpotentialtodeliverwholeenergysystemflexibilityandreducednetworkconstraintsalongsidedecarbonisation.Across

thenetzeroscenarios,atleast

89

GWofwindandsolar

isconnected

in2030,with119

GWinLeadingtheWayBetween7.

6and21.3

TWh

ofelectricityiscurtailed

inthenetzeroscenariosin2030Accelerated

coordinatedplanningandContinuedcollaborationbetweendelivery

of

strategic,

wholeenergysysteminvestment

through

Centralised

StrategicNetwork

Planning

(CSNP)

will

requireGovernment,Ofgemandindustryiscritical.Theprocessmustbefuture-proofedto

facilitatepotentialprioritisationofconnectionsfordeliveryofwholeenergysystembenefitsandnetzeroinlinewithstrategicnetworkplanning.Acoherentstrategyisrequiredto

ensurelargeelectricitydemandsarelocatedwheretheyprovidethebiggestbenefittoconsumersandthewholeenergysystem.H2continuedcollaborationand

engagement

withthe

Government,

Ofgem,

local

communities,industry

andthe

supplychain.

Strategicnetwork

investment

shouldbe

enabled

throughreforms

to

the

planningsystem,

whilealsobalancing

social

and

environmentalimpacts.H2Thereareover38GWofnetwork-connectedelectrolysersin2050inLeadingtheWay56TWh

ofhydrogenstorageisrequiredinSystemTransformationby

2050The

routes

to

net

zeroOurnetzeroscenariosshowthatitispossibleto

reachnetzerobefore2050.However,

signi?cantuncertainty

remainsinthedeliveryof

key

netzerotechnologiesoutto

2050,soitiscriticalto

addresstheseintheshort-term.Bringingforwardthedecarbonisationof

key

leversto

thetransition,like

thedecarbonisationof

heat,andactingnow

onnoregretoptions,suchasV2G,

willreducetheriskof

fallingshort.Figure1.

Total

netGHGemissionsincludingcarbonbudgets5004003002001000LeadingtheWay

reachesnetzeroby

2046andachievesannualnetemissionsof

-34MtCO

e2by

2050,

whichamountsto

removalof

GreenhouseGas(GHG)

emissionsfromtheatmosphere.ConsumerTransformation

andSystemTransformation

reachnetzeroby

2050.

Falling

Shortdoesnotgetto

netzeroby

2050,

resultingin179

Mtof

residualemissions.2020202520302035204020452050-100Netzeropower

sectoremissionsarereachedin2034forLeadingtheWay

andConsumerTransformation:

oneyearearlierthanthe2035target.SystemTransformation

reachesnetzeropower

sectoremissionsby

2035andFalling

Shortin2046.CB4ISA

HeadroomSystem

TransformationCB5ISA

HeadroomLeadingtheWayCB6Consumer

TransformationFallingShortIt

isimportantalsoto

lookatshort-termprogress,decisions,andpolicyimplementationalongsidelong-termpotentialto

getaviewof

currentprogresstowards

any

oneof

ournetzeroscenarios.Thisvariesacrosssectorsandfuelsbutallowsforadditionalcommentaryonwhatisneededfornetzero.

Thisinformedtherecommendationswe

setoutinourKey

Messages.Key

statistics20222030LW382035LW-72050LWEmissionsCT66ST68FSCT-14ST0FS50CT-41-1ST-40-9FSEmissionsAnnualaveragecarbonintensityofelectricity(gCO

/kWh)

183104-13-10178Annualaveragecarbonintensityofelectricity(gCO

/kWh)22Netannualemissions(MtCO

e)463303

323

288

389164

187

145

328-34Netannualemissions(MtCO

e)22ElectricityElectricityAnnualdemand(TWh)12861958112357344

325

369

326467

400

479

373726

678

671

570Annualdemand(TWh)1Electricitydemandforheat(TWh)Peakdemand(GW)22769216328632467438721734582307880606569Electricitydemandforheat(TWh)Peakdemand(GW)2113101

98114Total

installedcapacity(GW)3Windandsolarcapacity(GW)Interconnectorcapacity(GW)Total

storagecapacity(GW)4Total

storagecapacity(GWh)5Total

vehicle-to-gridcapacity(GW)6Natural

Gas187

172

207

159266

225

287

189158

134

178

94386

344

387

285239

213

249

149Total

installedcapacity(GW)3Windandsolarcapacity(GW)Interconnectorcapacity(GW)Total

storagecapacity(GW)4Total

storagecapacity(GWh)5Total

vehicle-to-gridcapacity(GW)6102

89119177012134401221602121751019162059124521515216416412772162633111833711614290149

4728166

116197

6203416398Natural

GasAnnualdemand(TWh)7986571

671

533

828384

581

331

70029364

74513Annualdemand(TWh)71-in-20

peakdemand(GWh/day)Residentialdemand(TWh)8Imports(TWh)1-in-20

peakdemand(GWh/day)Residentialdemand(TWh)8Imports(TWh)5550

3985

4823

3368

5331

2593

3858

1987

4950

282

2086

509

3962311598240

276

227

325151

204

117294010147356411460

353

559285

422

227

43625358

55HydrogenHydrogenAnnualdemand(TWh)000030033804051001190151

8049

14104

2626

483012120

446

242

14Annualdemand(TWh)Residentialhydrogendemandforheat(TWh)CCSenabledhydrogenproduction(TWh)9Electrolytichydrogenproduction(TWh)100119218

26175

17729068Residentialhydrogendemandforheat(TWh)Bluehydrogenproduction(TWh)9Greenhydrogenproduction(TWh)1025117113217111BioresourcesBioresourcesBioresourcedemand(TWh)127103

113147

130169

156

139

137219

228

160

148Bioresourcedemand(TWh)1.

Customerdemand

pluson-grid

electrolysismeetingGBhydrogendemand

only,pluslosses,

equivalenttoGBFESSystemDemandTotal

inED1ofdataworkbook.2.

Refertodataworkbookforfurther

informationonwinteraveragecold

5.

Excludesvehicle-to-grid.spell(ACS)peak

demand.

6.

Less

capacity

willbe

availableduringwinterpeak

5-6pm

duetovehicleusage.3.

Includesallnetworkedgenerationas

wellas

totalinterconnectorandstoragecapacity

(includingvehicle-to-gridavailableatwinterpeak).4.

Includesvehicle-to-gridcapacity

availableatwinterpeak.7.

Includesshrinkage,exports,

biomethaneandnaturalgas

formethanereformation.8.

Residentialdemand

madeupofbiomethaneandnaturalgas.9.

Bluehydrogeniscreatedusingnaturalgas

as

an

input,withCCUS.10.Green

hydrogeniscreatedviaelectrolysisusingzerocarbon

electricity

(this?guredoes

notincludehydrogenproduced

directlyfromnuclearorbioenergy).Energy

supply

and

demand2022(176

3TWh)?

Fossilfuelsmake

up82%

of

totalenergysupplyin2022?

Petroleumsupplies93%

of

roadtransportdemandand100%

of

aviationandshippingdemand?

Interactionsbetweendifferentfuelsarelow,

demonstratinglimitedwholesystemthinking403

Industrial&Commercial52374

3Natural

gas*Unabated

gas:

224440Residential41NuclearStorage:

554Offshore

wind47Electricity:317Onshore

windSolar31629131423Other

renewablesElectricity

import412

Road

andrail

transportBiomass:

48Energy

from

waste:

90126BioresourceOther

thermal:

2028Electricityexport191

Aviation702&ShippingOther

fuels637289Losses*excluding

exportsEnergy

supply

and

demand

in

2050ConsumerTransformation(1239

TWh)?

Homeheating,transportandindustrylargelyelectrified?

Highlevels

of

energyefficiencycombinedwithlarge-scaleelectrificationleadto

lowest

consumerenergydemandsacrossthescenariosexcluding

aviation?

Highlevels

of

renewablegenerationwithlow

hydrogenproductionleadsto

thehighestlevels

of

electricitycurtailmentandexportof

any

of

thescenarios?

Two

thirdsof

hydrogenproducedisusedinaviation,withanother20%

usedforelectricitygeneration,to

helpmeetsecurityof

supply2421397Natural

gas*Storage:

12Non-networkedgenerationNuclearHydrogen:

120318

Industrial&Commercial9572