.."我國(guó)財(cái)政收入影響因素分析"班級(jí)：：學(xué)號(hào)：指導(dǎo)教師：完成時(shí)間：摘要：對(duì)我國(guó)財(cái)政收入影響因素進(jìn)展了定量分析，建立了數(shù)學(xué)模型，并提出了提高我國(guó)財(cái)政收入質(zhì)量的政策建議。關(guān)鍵詞：財(cái)政收入實(shí)證分析影響因素引言財(cái)政收入對(duì)于國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行及社會(huì)開展具有重要影響。首先，它是一個(gè)國(guó)家各項(xiàng)收入得以實(shí)現(xiàn)的物質(zhì)保證。一個(gè)國(guó)家財(cái)政收入規(guī)模大小往往是衡量其經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的重要標(biāo)志。其次，財(cái)政收入是國(guó)家對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)行宏觀調(diào)控的重要經(jīng)濟(jì)杠桿。宏觀調(diào)控的首要問(wèn)題是社會(huì)總需求與總供應(yīng)的平衡問(wèn)題，實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)總需求與總供應(yīng)的平衡，包括總量上的平衡和構(gòu)造上的平衡兩個(gè)層次的容。財(cái)政收入的杠桿既可通過(guò)增收和減收來(lái)發(fā)揮總量調(diào)控作用，也可通過(guò)對(duì)不同財(cái)政資金繳納者的財(cái)政負(fù)擔(dān)大小的調(diào)整，來(lái)發(fā)揮構(gòu)造調(diào)整的作用。此外，財(cái)政收入分配也是調(diào)整國(guó)民收入初次分配格局，實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)財(cái)富公平合理分配的主要工具。在我國(guó)，財(cái)政收入的主體是稅收收入。因此，在稅收體制及政策不變的情況下，財(cái)政收入會(huì)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮而增加，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退而下降。我國(guó)的財(cái)政收入主要包括稅收、國(guó)有經(jīng)濟(jì)收入、債務(wù)收入以及其他收入四種形式，因此，財(cái)政收入會(huì)受到不同因素的影響。從國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)部門構(gòu)造看，財(cái)政收入又表現(xiàn)為來(lái)自各經(jīng)濟(jì)部門的收入。財(cái)政收入的部門構(gòu)成就是在財(cái)政收入中，由來(lái)自國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門的收入所占的不同比例來(lái)表現(xiàn)財(cái)政收入來(lái)源的構(gòu)造，它表達(dá)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門與財(cái)政收入的關(guān)系。我國(guó)財(cái)政收入主要來(lái)自于工業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)、商業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸和效勞業(yè)等部門。因此，本文認(rèn)為財(cái)政收入主要受到總稅收收入、國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值、其他收入和就業(yè)人口總數(shù)的影響。二、 預(yù)設(shè)模型令財(cái)政收入Y〔億元〕為被解釋變量，總稅收收入X1〔億元〕、國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值X2〔億元〕、其他收入X3〔億元〕、就業(yè)人口總數(shù)為X4〔萬(wàn)人〕為解釋變量，據(jù)此建立回歸模型。數(shù)據(jù)收集從"2010中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒"得到1990--2009年每年的財(cái)政收入、總稅收收入、國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值工、其他收入和就業(yè)人口總數(shù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)如下：obs財(cái)政收入Y總稅收收入X1國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值X2其他收入X3就業(yè)人口總數(shù)X419902937.12821.8618667.8299.536474919913149.482990.1721781.5240.16549119923483.373296.9126923.5265.156615219934348.954255.335333.9191.046680819945218.15126.8848197.9280.186745519956242.26038.0460793.7396.196806519967407.996909.8271176.6724.666895019978651.148234.0478973682.36982019989875.959262.884402.3833.370637199911444.0810682.5889677.1925.4371394200013395.2312581.5199214.6944.9872085200116386.0415301.38109655.21218.173025200218903.6417636.45120332.71328.7473740200321715.2520017.31135822.81691.9374432200426396.4724165.68159878.32148.3275200200531649.2928778.54184937.42707.8375825200638760.234804.35216314.43683.8576400200751321.7845621.97265810.34457.9676990200861330.3554223.79314045.45552.4677480200968518.359521.59340506.97215.7277995模型建立散點(diǎn)圖分析單因素或多變量間關(guān)系分析YX1X2X3X4Y10.78530.08040.95640.1508X10.785310.84690.47820.3492X20.08040.846910.84710.0459X30.95640.47820.847110.0381X40.15080.34920.04590.03811由散點(diǎn)圖分析和變量間關(guān)系分析可以看出被解釋變量財(cái)政收入Y與解釋變量總稅收收入X1、國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值X2、其他收入X3、就業(yè)人口總數(shù)X4呈線性關(guān)系，因此該回歸模型設(shè)為：模型預(yù)模擬由eviews做ols回歸得到結(jié)果：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/14/11Time:17:51Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C7299.5231691.8144.3146140.0006X11.0628020.02110850.349720.0000X20.0017700.0045280.3910070.7013X30.8733690.1198067.2898520.0000X4-0.1159750.026580-4.3631600.0006R-squared0.999978

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999972

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression106.6264

Akaikeinfocriterion12.38886Sumsquaredresid170537.9

Schwarzcriterion12.63779Loglikelihood-118.8886

F-statistic166897.9Durbin-Watsonstat1.496517

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000(4.314614)(50.34972)(0.391007)(7.289852)(-4.363160)模型檢驗(yàn)1.計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)意義檢驗(yàn)⑴多重共線性檢驗(yàn)與解決求相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣，得到：CorrelationMatrixYX1X2X3X410.78530.08040.95640.15080.785310.84690.47820.34920.08040.846910.84710.04590.95640.47820.847110.03810.15080.34920.04590.03811發(fā)現(xiàn)模型存在多重共線性。接下來(lái)運(yùn)用逐步回歸法對(duì)模型進(jìn)展修正:①將各個(gè)解釋變量分別參加模型,進(jìn)展一元回歸:作Y與X1的回歸，結(jié)果如下:DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:02Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-755.6610145.2330-5.2030940.0001X11.1449940.005760198.79310.0000R-squared0.999545

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999519

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression438.1521

Akaikeinfocriterion15.09765Sumsquaredresid3455590.

Schwarzcriterion15.19722Loglikelihood-148.9765

F-statistic39518.70Durbin-Watsonstat0.475046

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X2的回歸，結(jié)果如下:DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:06Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-5222.077861.2067-6.0636740.0000X20.2076890.00554837.432670.0000R-squared0.987317

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.986612

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression2312.610

Akaikeinfocriterion18.42478Sumsquaredresid96267005

Schwarzcriterion18.52435Loglikelihood-182.2478

F-statistic1401.205Durbin-Watsonstat0.188013

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X3的回歸，結(jié)果如下:DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:08Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C2607.879773.99883.3693580.0034X310.030730.29431134.082090.0000R-squared0.984740

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.983893

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression2536.645

Akaikeinfocriterion18.60971Sumsquaredresid1.16E+08

Schwarzcriterion18.70929Loglikelihood-184.0971

F-statistic1161.589Durbin-Watsonstat1.194389

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X4的回歸，結(jié)果如下:DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:08Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-272959.337203.65-7.3368940.0000X44.0974030.5184677.9029180.0000R-squared0.776276

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.763846

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression9712.824

Akaikeinfocriterion21.29492Sumsquaredresid1.70E+09

Schwarzcriterion21.39449Loglikelihood-210.9492

F-statistic62.45611Durbin-Watsonstat0.157356

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000②依據(jù)可決系數(shù)最大的原那么選取X1作為進(jìn)入回歸模型的第一個(gè)解釋變量,再依次將其余變量分別代入回歸得:作Y與X1、X2的回歸，結(jié)果如下DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:09Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-188.4285239.0743-0.7881590.4415X11.2815940.04947225.905680.0000X2-0.0250550.009029-2.7749080.0130R-squared0.999687

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999650

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression374.0345

Akaikeinfocriterion14.82405Sumsquaredresid2378330.

Schwarzcriterion14.97341Loglikelihood-145.2405

F-statistic27118.20Durbin-Watsonstat0.683510

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X1、X3的回歸，結(jié)果如下DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:10Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-351.105483.15053-4.2225270.0006X10.9928130.01870753.071960.0000X31.3569360.1651098.2184100.0000R-squared0.999908

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999898

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression202.1735

Akaikeinfocriterion13.59361Sumsquaredresid694859.9

Schwarzcriterion13.74297Loglikelihood-132.9361

F-statistic92839.33Durbin-Watsonstat1.177765

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X1、X4的回歸，結(jié)果如下DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:10Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C11853.461824.5226.4967480.0000X11.1858860.006645178.46080.0000X4-0.1866450.026984-6.9170030.0000R-squared0.999881

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999867

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression230.8464

Akaikeinfocriterion13.85886Sumsquaredresid905931.0

Schwarzcriterion14.00822Loglikelihood-135.5886

F-statistic71206.90Durbin-Watsonstat1.459938

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000③在滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)意義和可決系數(shù)的條件下選取X3作為進(jìn)入模型的第二個(gè)解釋變量,再次進(jìn)展回歸那么:作Y與X1、X3、X2的回歸，結(jié)果如下DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:13Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-76.04458100.1724-0.7591370.4588X11.0859240.02980136.438810.0000X31.2108530.1334449.0738770.0000X2-0.0140730.003944-3.5679010.0026R-squared0.999949

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999939

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression155.5183

Akaikeinfocriterion13.10826Sumsquaredresid386975.0

Schwarzcriterion13.30741Loglikelihood-127.0826

F-statistic104602.9Durbin-Watsonstat1.196933

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X1、X3、X4的回歸，結(jié)果如下DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/22/11Time:23:13Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C6781.7641024.7456.6180030.0000X11.0686420.01451473.627640.0000X30.8910690.1079498.2545510.0000X4-0.1076390.015451-6.9666750.0000R-squared0.999977

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999973

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression103.7654

Akaikeinfocriterion12.29900Sumsquaredresid172276.1

Schwarzcriterion12.49814Loglikelihood-118.9900

F-statistic234970.9Durbin-Watsonstat1.451447

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000④可見參加其余任何一個(gè)變量都會(huì)導(dǎo)致系數(shù)符號(hào)與經(jīng)濟(jì)意義不符,故最終修正后的回歸模型為:DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/30/11Time:12:18Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-351.105483.15053-4.2225270.0006X10.9928130.01870753.071960.0000X31.3569360.1651098.2184100.0000R-squared0.999908

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999898

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression202.1735

Akaikeinfocriterion13.59361Sumsquaredresid694859.9

Schwarzcriterion13.74297Loglikelihood-132.9361

F-statistic92839.33Durbin-Watsonstat1.177765

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000(-4.222527)(53.07196)(8.218410)⑵異方差檢驗(yàn)與修正圖示法ee與X1的散點(diǎn)圖如下：說(shuō)明ee與X1存在單調(diào)遞增型異方差性。ee與X3的散點(diǎn)圖如下：說(shuō)明ee與X3存在單調(diào)遞增型異方差性。②G-Q檢驗(yàn)對(duì)20組數(shù)據(jù)剔除掉中間四組剩下的進(jìn)展分組后，第一組〔1990-1997〕數(shù)據(jù)的回歸結(jié)果：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/30/11Time:12:54Sample:19901997Includedobservations:8VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

X10.9841230.01625560.543200.0000X30.8515180.1566885.4344720.0029C-28.3427545.36993-0.6247030.5596R-squared0.999686

Meandependentvar5179.791AdjustedR-squared0.999560

S.D.dependentvar2099.840S.E.ofregression44.05899

Akaikeinfocriterion10.68893Sumsquaredresid9705.972

Schwarzcriterion10.71872Loglikelihood-39.75573

F-statistic7947.575Durbin-Watsonstat1.663630

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000殘差平方和RSS1=9705.972第二組〔2002-2009〕數(shù)據(jù)的回歸結(jié)果：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/30/11Time:12:55Sample:20022009Includedobservations:8VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

X11.0664040.02774738.433210.0000X30.8472280.2151143.9385030.0110C-1184.159261.8258-4.5226980.0063R-squared0.999932

Meandependentvar39824.41AdjustedR-squared0.999905

S.D.dependentvar18639.16S.E.ofregression182.0047

Akaikeinfocriterion13.52594Sumsquaredresid165628.5

Schwarzcriterion13.55573Loglikelihood-51.10375

F-statistic36705.08Durbin-Watsonstat1.326122

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000殘差平方和RSS2=165628.5所以F=RSS2/RSS1=165628.5/9705.972=17.0646在給定=5%下查得臨界值，因此否認(rèn)兩組子樣方差一樣的假設(shè)，從而該總體隨機(jī)項(xiàng)存在遞增異方差性。③White方法檢驗(yàn)WhiteHeteroskedasticityTest:F-statistic6.142010

Probability0.003919Obs*R-squared12.41812

Probability0.014498TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESID^2Method:LeastSquaresDate:11/30/11Time:13:21Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C24856.5019211.301.2938480.2153X1-20.573277.549127-2.7252520.0156X1^20.0002128.04E-052.6399820.0186X3237.181378.613233.0170670.0087X3^2-0.0240730.006568-3.6652300.0023R-squared0.620906

Meandependentvar34743.00AdjustedR-squared0.519815

S.D.dependentvar49156.00S.E.ofregression34062.86

Akaikeinfocriterion23.92212Sumsquaredresid1.74E+10

Schwarzcriterion24.17105Loglikelihood-234.2212

F-statistic6.142010Durbin-Watsonstat1.560937

Prob(F-statistic)0.003919=5%下，臨界值拒絕同方差性④修正DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:11/30/11Time:14:29Sample:19902009Includedobservations:20Weightingseries:1/E1VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-314.207443.68550-7.1924860.0000X10.9797580.008622113.63360.0000X31.4572910.06592222.106290.0000WeightedStatisticsR-squared0.999999

Meandependentvar27246.27AdjustedR-squared0.999999

S.D.dependentvar74471.17S.E.ofregression73.91795

Akaikeinfocriterion11.58127Sumsquaredresid92885.67

Schwarzcriterion11.73063Loglikelihood-112.8127

F-statistic3138195.Durbin-Watsonstat0.956075

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000UnweightedStatisticsR-squared0.999902

Meandependentvar20556.75AdjustedR-squared0.999891

S.D.dependentvar19987.03S.E.ofregression209.0283

Sumsquaredresid742778.2Durbin-Watsonstat1.365483(-7.192486)(113.6336)(22.10629)⑶序列相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)①?gòu)臍埐铐?xiàng)e2與e2(-1)及e與時(shí)間t的關(guān)系圖〔如下〕看，隨機(jī)項(xiàng)呈現(xiàn)正序列相關(guān)性。②Q統(tǒng)計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)由圖可以看出，存在一階序列相關(guān)③回歸檢驗(yàn)殘差e2與e2〔-1〕做回歸得：DependentVariable:EMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/04/11Time:15:21Sample(adjusted):19912009Includedobservations:19afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C16.8152545.696110.3679800.7174E(-1)0.3035700.2311141.3135080.2065R-squared0.092138

Meandependentvar25.28519AdjustedR-squared0.038734

S.D.dependentvar201.1252S.E.ofregression197.1916

Akaikeinfocriterion13.50553Sumsquaredresid661036.6

Schwarzcriterion13.60494Loglikelihood-126.3025

F-statistic1.725303Durbin-Watsonstat1.776498

Prob(F-statistic)0.206464e與e(-1)、e(-2)做回歸得：DependentVariable:EMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/04/11Time:15:24Sample(adjusted):19922009Includedobservations:18afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C7.44976046.209120.1612180.8741E(-1)0.4195640.2444751.7161870.1067E(-2)-0.3798940.278641-1.3633800.1929R-squared0.192570

Meandependentvar16.45940AdjustedR-squared0.084912

S.D.dependentvar203.1349S.E.ofregression194.3193

Akaikeinfocriterion13.52789Sumsquaredresid566399.7

Schwarzcriterion13.67629Loglikelihood-118.7510

F-statistic1.788727Durbin-Watsonstat2.055382

Prob(F-statistic)0.201043由上說(shuō)明不存在序列相關(guān)性。④D.W檢驗(yàn)由異方差檢驗(yàn)修正后的結(jié)果：得D.W=1.365483取=5%，由于n=20，k=3(包含常數(shù)項(xiàng))，查表得：dl=1.10，du=1.54由于dl<DW=1.365483<du，故:序列相關(guān)性不確定。⑤拉格朗日檢驗(yàn)DependentVariable:EMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/04/11Time:15:05Sample(adjusted):19922009Includedobservations:18afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

Y0.0009840.0025480.3862170.7051C-14.1479273.42247-0.1926920.8500E(-1)0.3920090.2616331.4983160.1563E(-2)-0.3477300.298739-1.1639920.2639R-squared0.201082

Meandependentvar16.45940AdjustedR-squared0.029885

S.D.dependentvar203.1349S.E.ofregression200.0765

Akaikeinfocriterion13.62841Sumsquaredresid560428.6

Schwarzcriterion13.82627Loglikelihood-118.6557

F-statistic1.174565Durbin-Watsonstat2.010385

Prob(F-statistic)0.354679取=5%，分布的臨界值LM<故:存在序列相關(guān)。⑥修正為了更好的提高模型的精度，我們用廣義差分法對(duì)模型進(jìn)展修正。首先用杜賓〔durbin〕兩步法估計(jì)。DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/04/11Time:16:18Sample(adjusted):19922009Includedobservations:18afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.

C-36.8579081.18933-0.4539750.6606Y(-1)0.7306100.3453042.1158470.0635Y(-2)0.3581040.3645190.9824020.3516X11.0973550.03037736.124880.0000X1(-1)-0.8724700.400852-2.1765410.0575X1(-2)-0.3556990.409249-0.8691490.4073X30.7557470.2182723.4624050.0071X3(-1)-0.2721010.460341-0.5910860.5690X3(-2)-0.0830960.402994-0.2061980.8412R-squared0.999986

Meandependentvar22502.69AdjustedR-squared0.999973

S.D.dependentvar20158.96S.E.ofregression104.6672

Akaikeinfocriterion12.44630Sumsquaredresid98597.03

Schwarzcriterion12.89149Loglikelihood-103.0167

F-statistic78825.65Durbin-Watsonstat2.219316

Prob(F-statistic