本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）外文翻譯原文：ChapterTwenty-NineRealEstateRealestateshouldrepresentasignificantpositionineveryinvestor’sportfolio.Beforedetailingwhyrealestateshouldbeacoreholdinginallportfolios,adiscussionofthepotentialnegativesiswarranted.Ifeelwemaycurrentlybeexperiencingarealestatebubble,similartoourstockmarketbubbleofthelate1990s,similartotheJapanesestockmarketandrealestatebubbleofthelate1980s.Schiller,theauthorofIrrationalExuberancehasrecentlyvoicedsimilarconcerns.Thisbubbleisdueatleastinparttothehistoricallylowinterestratesthatwehavehadforseveralyearsandthegreatamountofliquidity(i.e.,money)beingpumpedintotheeconomy.Onewaytomeasuretherealvalueofyourhomeistocomparewhatthepropertycouldberentedforincomparisontothepriceandthencomparethistothereturnonanyinvestment.Asanexample,ifahomecosts$100,000andcanberentedfor$800amonth($9,600ayear),this9.6%returnrepresentsasolidinvestment.However,saythepriceofthehomehasrisenmorethan15%ayearfor5or6yearsandwouldnowsellfor$200,000.Buttherenthasactuallydroppedslightlyto$750amonthbecausesomanypeoplenowqualifyformortgagessotherearelessrenters.Therateofreturnonthehomeasarentalhasdroppedto4.5%($750×12monthsis$9,000,whichis4.5%of$200,000).Consideringtheamountofmoneyinvested,theilliquidityofrealestate,thesalescommission,expensessuchasinsurance,taxes,maintenanceetc.,a4.5%returnisprobablynotadequate.Tobeabletorealizeamoreusualrateofreturnfromtheproperty,eithertherentmustriseorthepricemustdrop(themorelikelyscenario).Whentheonlyhopeofreturnonarealestateinvestmentisfromthefavorabletaxconsequences(suchasdepreciation)or“potentialappreciation,”itisverylikelythatthepropertyisoverpriced.Whentherehavebeenmultipleyearsofgainsandwithinthelastyearpricesareupanother25to30%,asatmultiplesitesintheUnitedStates,(homesinLasVegasareupmorethan50%,thegreatestannualincreaseinanymetroareaonrecord),thenyoumustbeconcernedaboutthepossibilityofa“blow-off”top.Thisistheupsideequivalentofa“panicsell.”Youarealmostcertaintobebuyingatthetop.Withthisinmind,atpresentIwouldonlybuyapieceofinvestmentrealestateifthecircumstanceswereespeciallycompelling.Otherwise,keepyourpowderdry.othergeneralinvestingprinciples,ofcourse,alsoapplytorealestate.Itisimpossibletomakemoneyoneventhebestpropertyifthepurchasepriceistoohigh.Nothingevergoesstraightupanditispossibletolosemoneyonanyinvestment.Location,location,location.What10or15yearsagowasinthemostfashionableareaoftownmaynowbeinanareathatisnotasdesirableorevenundesirable.Evenagreatpropertyinagreatlocationmaynotdowellifitisover-leveragedorpoorlymanaged.Thereareseveralreasonsthatrealestatetraditionallydoeswellandwillcontinuetodowellinthelong-term.Astheysay,theyarenotmakinganymoreland.Thesupplyisclearlylimited.Thisfactisalreadyquiteapparentinthecenteroflargecities,suchasManhattan,Boston,SanFranciscoandWashingtonDC.Becauseofthefinancial,educational,business,andgovernmentbaseoftheseareas,itisaprerequisitethatpeopleliveincloseproximity.Associetycontinuestoprogressandthepopulationcontinuestoincrease,therewillbeanevengreaterdemandforrealestate,especiallyindesirableareas.Ingeneral,thelongeraninvestmentisheld,thegreaterthepotentialforprofit.Aninvestorbuyingtheaveragestockhasanalmostinfinitelyhigherchanceofrealizingaprofitifthepositionisheldfor1yearascomparedtoifitisheldforjust1day.Stockscanbetradedon-linebyliterallyatouchofthebutton.Comparethistorealestate.Sellingapieceofrealestateiscumbersome.Itmaytakeweeksormonths,orlongerinadownmarketorifthepropertyisoverpriced,andthecommissionsaresignificant.Youdonotsellyourhomeinapanicassometimesoccurswhenthestockmarketdropsandstocksaresoldinapanic.Thesefactorsessentiallyforceyoutoholdrealestatelonger,whichintheendincreasesthelikelihoodofaprofit.Thinkofthisasasortofsystemenforcedpatience.Theleverageofamortgageincreasestheprofit.Apieceofrealestateisoftenasoundinvestmentwithonlya20%downpayment.Comparethistopurchasingastockwithonly20%downand80%margin(theaverageinvestorcannotmakesuchaninvestmentsincethisisgreaterthantheusualmarginrequirementsallowedbytheFederalReserve.However,hedgefundssometimesdousethisamountofleverage).Thepurchaseofastockon80%marginwouldbeaterriblyflimsyinvestment.Considerthefollowingasareasonableexampleofthefinancesandprofitpotentialofthepurchaseofarentalproperty.A$200,000propertyispurchasedwitha20%downpaymentof$40,000.Ifthepropertywaschosenappropriately,therentshouldjustaboutcoverthemortgagepaymentona15-yearnote.After15years,your$40,000hasgrownto$200,000,amorethan11%compoundedannualrateofreturn.Butthegaincouldbeevengreater.Thereisalsothefollowing:1.Depreciation,withitsfavorableshort-termtaxconsequences.2.Theinterestonthenoteandtheexpensestomaintainthepropertyaretax-deductible.3.Hopefullytherewillbeanincreaseinthevalueofthepropertyitself.4.Itshouldbepossibletoraisetherentastimegoeson,suchthatatsometime,orpossiblyevenfromtheoutset,thereispositivecashflowoverandabovedebtserviceforthemortgageandexpenses.Thisisidenticaltoacorporationthatregularlyincreasesdividends.Thisexcesscashflowcanbeusedforanythingsuchaspayingoffthenoteearlyorforotherinvestments.Aproperlychosenpieceofrentalpropertymayproducea15%compoundedannualrateofreturn.Thelimitingfactorstosuchprofitarestraightforward,namely,havingthemoneyforthedownpayment,choosingtherightproperty,payinganappropriateprice,theworkandtimeofmanagingtheproperty,andpatience.Realestatetraditionallyperformswellinaninflationaryenvironment.Duringinflationaryperiods,financialassets,suchasbonds,cashandstocks,losevalue.Peopleturntohardassets,withrealestateandgoldbeingtheprimeexamples.Inaddition,ifthepropertyisfinancedwithafixedratenote,thedebtisbeingpaidoffwithcheaperdollarsthatareeasiertocomeby.Theinversecanoccurinadeflationaryenvironment.Realestatecanbedevastated.Fortunately,periodsofdeflationoccurrarely,buttheydooccur.TheonlyperiodofdeflationinlivingmemoryintheUnitedStateswasTheGreatDepression.Japanhashadmilddeflationforthelast5years,andJapaneserealestateisstilldownapproximately30%fromitslate1980speak(realestatecangodowninvalue).Theproblemwithrealestateanddeflationisnotonlythepropertyisworthless,butbecausealmostallrealestateispurchasedwithsomeamountofdebt,thedollarsusedtopayofftheloanarebothmoredearandtoughertocomebythanthoseborrowed.TheUSwasbarelyabletoavertadeflationaryrecessionin2002and2003.Consideringmyconcernthatwemaynothaveyetseenthefinallowofthisbearmarket(seeChapterTwenty-Eight)andthedegreeofdebtinoursociety,(thenationaldebtiscurrentlymorethan$7trillionandincreasingatarateof$50millionanhour)westillmaynothaveyetcompletelydodgedthebogeymanofdeflation.Ifthereadershouldhavefurtherinterestinlearningaboutdeflation,IreferyoutothebookandarticlebyRobertPrechterreferencedattheendofthechapter.Historyshowsthatdebtbubblestypicallyendinadeflationarycrash.Atpresent,thetotalamountofgovernment,corporateandpersonaldebtintheUnitedStatesisequaltothreetimestheGDP(grossdomesticproduct).Everymany,woman,andchildintheUnitedStatesofAmericawouldhavetowork3yearsjusttopayoffthisdebt.PaulVolcker,possiblythemostcapableChairmanoftheFederalReserveever,who’sactionsinthelate1970sandearly1980smanyfeelliterallysavedthedollar,wasrecentlyquotedaspredictinga75%chanceofaThird-WorldstyledebtcrisisintheUnitedStateswithinthenext5years.OWNINGAPROPERTYOUTRIGHTThereareseveralsituations,inadditiontoyourhome,thatyoushouldstronglyconsiderthedirectpurchaseofrealestateasaninvestment.Thefirstisvacationorrecreationalproperty.Atypicalexampleisahomeorcondoinareasyouliketogotoonvacationsorjustrelax.Examplesincludeanywhereonwater,whetherthatbeaseacoast,riverbankorlake,suchasLakeoftheOzarksinthisarea.Imustmakeonerecommendation.Thedesirablepropertiesaretheonesrightonthewater.Donotpurchasea“secondtier”property,onethatisnotdirectlyonthewater.Thesewillneverbeasdesirableasthepropertiesdirectlyonthewateranditisquiteunlikelytheywillappreciateasrapidly.Youdonotwanttobeforcedtolookaroundsomeoneelse’streesorshrubsorhometoseethewater.Youwantthatunobstructedview,thosegorgeoussunrisesorsunsets,thesoundsofthewaves,toberightoutsideyourwindow,balcony,orpiazza.Realestateislikecollectibles.Peoplewantthebestandtherewillalwaysbesomeonewillingtopayforthebest.Buythebestpropertyyoucanafford(noteIemphasize“afford.”Donotgetcarriedaway!).Thesewillbethemostfunandhavethegreatestpotentialtoappreciateinvalue.Otherobviousexamplesofdesirableareasincludesnowskiingareas,resorts,golfcourses,landforhuntingorhiking,islands,andpropertiesingeneralinareasthatarewarmduringthewinter,suchasthesoutheast,south,gulfcoast,andsouthwest.Rememberthereisapracticalaspecttovacationproperty.Notonlyiscostimportant,buthowlongittakestogetthereismuchmoreimportantforthevastmajorityofpeoplelookingforasecondhome,oranypieceofrecreationalproperty.A75-miledrivecanbeeasilyaccomplishedtwoweekendsamonthascomparedtoafullday’stravelwithmultipleairplaneconnectionstogetfromtheupperMidwestorNortheasttoabeachfronthomeintheFloridaKeys.Ibelievethatasoursocietybecomeswealthiermoremoneywillbespentonvacation/recreationalproperty.Onlysomuchmoneycanbespentonahome(albeitsometimesverymuch),car,electronics,andotherbasicneeds.Thisleavesmorediscretionaryincometobefunneledintorecreationalproperty.Ialsobelievethiswillapplytocollectibles(seeChapterThirty).Anyonecanbuyanewcarbutthereareonlysomanypiecesofantiquefurnituretogoaround.Lookatthelate1990s.Thepriceofrecreationalpropertywentbonkers.Ibelievethisisonlyasampleofwhatwilloccurinthefutureasmorepeopleaccumulatewealthandlookforenjoyment,recreation,andrelaxation.Onequestionthatalwaysariseswithvacationandrecreationalpropertyisifyoushouldpurchaseastand-alonehomeoracondo.Themajorityofpeopleprobablyfindstand-alonehomesmoredesirable.Theappreciationpotentialisalmostalwaysgreaterthanacondobecauseyouowntheland.Theprinciplefeaturesthatmakecondosdesirablearethelowerpriceandlackofmaintenance.Unlessyouarewillingtopayotherstoperformthemaintenanceonastand-alonehome,agoodpartofyourpreciousvacationtimewillbespentonmaintenanceandupkeepsuchasmowingthelawn,rakingtheleaves,orpainting,etc.Whateveryouchooseshouldsuityourpreferenceandneedsbutdonotforgetthisveryimportantandpracticalissue.From:ThePhysiciansGuidetoInvesting:APracticalApproachtoBuildingWealthWrittenby:R.M.Doroghazi.HumanaPressInc.,Totowa,NJ譯文：第二十九章房地產(chǎn)房地產(chǎn)應(yīng)該代表著每個投資者的投資組合的重要性。詳細(xì)說明之前討論下為什么房地產(chǎn)應(yīng)該是在所有投資組合中的核心力量，其潛在的作用是有道理的。我覺得我們目前可能會遇到一個真正的房地產(chǎn)泡沫，類似于上世紀(jì)90年代的股票市場和20世紀(jì)80年代后期日本的股市和房地產(chǎn)的泡沫。席勒，非理性繁榮作者最近提出類似的關(guān)注。這個泡沫是因?yàn)槲覀冇泻脦啄曛辽儆幸徊糠值臍v史低利率，流動性金錢被注入經(jīng)濟(jì)。其中一個方法來衡量你的家真正值多少錢，相對于回報率，然后進(jìn)行比較。作為一個例子，如果一個家庭10萬美元的費(fèi)用，可租用800美元一個月（每年9600美元），這9.6%的回報率是一個可靠的投資。不過，說對房價漲幅超過15%的5年或6年，現(xiàn)在售價為20萬美元。但租金實(shí)際上已輕微下降至750美元的月份，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在很多人有資格獲得抵押貸款等所以租房者越來越少?？紤]到投資金額，實(shí)際流動性不足的投資，如房地產(chǎn)保險，稅收，維修等在內(nèi)的費(fèi)用4.5%的回報率可能并不足夠。為了能夠更好地實(shí)現(xiàn)回報率，房屋的租金必須上升或房屋價格必須下降。一個房地產(chǎn)投資的唯一希望是稅收優(yōu)惠（如折舊）或“升值潛力，”這很可能是財產(chǎn)被高估。當(dāng)出現(xiàn)了多個年度收益，今年價格上漲了另外的25%至30%，而在美國多個網(wǎng)站，（家園在拉斯維加斯均達(dá)到50%以上），那么你必須對一個“吹斷”頂?shù)目赡苄员硎娟P(guān)注。這是相當(dāng)于一個倒置的“恐慌性拋售?！蹦銕缀蹩隙〞谧罡邇r買入。鑒此，目前，如果情形特別引人注目，我只會買一塊地投資房地產(chǎn)。否則，有可能在幾年之后會出現(xiàn)一些真正的便宜貨，房產(chǎn)價格下降迅速。其他一般的投資原則，當(dāng)然，也適用于房地產(chǎn)價格不要過高。如果購買價格太高，即使作出最好的房地產(chǎn)錢也會有虧損。價格直線上升，并有可能失去任何投資資金。10年或15年以前，在最時尚的現(xiàn)在的城區(qū)可能在另一個領(lǐng)域是不是可取的，甚至不可取。如果它是過度杠桿或管理不善，即使是在一個良好的位置上的巨大的房地產(chǎn)可能也做不好。有跡象表明，傳統(tǒng)的房地產(chǎn)比較做的好，并會繼續(xù)搞好長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展。正如他們所說，他們沒有做任何更多的土地擴(kuò)展。供給顯然是有限的。這其實(shí)在相當(dāng)大的中心城市里比較明顯，如曼哈頓，波士頓，舊金山和華盛頓特區(qū)。由于金融，教育，商業(yè)，以及政府對這些地區(qū)的基地，一個先決條件是人民住在附近。隨著社會的不斷進(jìn)步和人口繼續(xù)增加，將會有一個更大的房地產(chǎn)需求，特別是在可取的地方。一般來說，投資的時間越長，潛在的利潤就更大。一年內(nèi)，一個投資者購買股票平均有一個實(shí)現(xiàn)了較高利潤，如果它只投資一天，股票可交易上線就比較困難了。與此相比，房地產(chǎn)銷售一塊很麻煩。這可能需要數(shù)周或數(shù)月或更長的時間在低迷的市場，或者如果財產(chǎn)被高估，而傭金是重要的。因?yàn)橛袝r會發(fā)生當(dāng)股市下跌和股票出售恐慌的時候，你不開盤會帶來恐慌。這些因素基本上迫使你持有房地產(chǎn)較長，最終增加了盈利的可能性。一個按揭杠桿可以增加利潤。一些房地產(chǎn)往往只有20％的首付，所以是一塊良好的投資。與此相比，購買股票只有20％下降到80％的保證金（一般的投資者不能作這樣的投資因?yàn)檫@是比一般的保證金要求由聯(lián)邦允許更大儲備。然而，對沖基金有時使用這種杠桿比率）。對于本次收購一個關(guān)于80％的保證金股票將是非常脆弱的投資。下面有一個利潤合理的例子，如：20萬澳元的財產(chǎn)，先購買了20％，需支付40000美元。如果選擇了適當(dāng)?shù)呢敭a(chǎn)，租金應(yīng)該差不多封面上的15年期國債抵押金。15年后，你的40000美元增長至20萬元，已超過11％的復(fù)合年回報率。但增益可以更大。也有以下幾點(diǎn)：1、折舊，其有利的短期稅務(wù)結(jié)果。2、對票據(jù)利息，費(fèi)用，以維持財產(chǎn)免稅。3、一個物業(yè)本身的價值增加。4、隨著時間的推移，它應(yīng)該有