古典宏觀經(jīng)濟模型TheClassicalViewA“priceadjustmentmechanism”wouldcuretheeconomy.Intheeventofunemployment,prices,wages,andinterestrateswouldallfall.Thiswouldincreaseconsumption,production,andinvestmentandquicklyreturntheeconomybacktoitsfullemploymentequilibrium.Laissez-FairEconomicsOneschoolofeconomics--theClassicalapproach--believesthatthebestcureforarecessionistoleavethefreemarketalone.Thisapproachisalsoknownas“l(fā)aissez-faire,”andlaissezfaireeconomistsarethosewhobelievethatmostgovernmentpolicieswillprobablymakethingsworse--notbetter--sothebestpolicyisrelativelylittlegovernmentClassicalEconomicsHasitsrootsinthefreemarketwritingsofAdamSmith,DavidRicardo,andJeanBaptisteSay.Unemploymentisanaturalpartofthebusinesscycleandisself-correcting.Thereisnoneedforgovernmentintervention.ClassicalUnemploymentUnemploymentresultswhenwagesaretoohigh.Intheeventofarecession,unemployedworkerswouldbewillingtoworkforless.Wageswouldthenfallbackdowntolevelswhereitonceagainmadeitprofitableforfirmstohiretheworkersandtherecessionwouldend.ThereIsNoCyclicalUnemploymentClassicaleconomistsagreedthatfrictionalandstructuralunemploymentcouldexist,buttheydidnotagreethatcyclicalunemploymentcouldbecausedbyashortageofaggregatedemand.TheTwoPillarsof

ClassicalEconomicsThesetwopillars支柱areSay’sLawandtheQuantityTheoryofMoney.Say’sLaw“Supplycreatesitsowndemand.”Butwhatdoesthisreallymean?HowSay’sLawWorksWhenpeopleworktoproducegoodsandservices,theyearnincomefordoingso.Say’sLawstatesthatthetotalincomegeneratedbythisworkmustequalthevalueofthegoodsandservices.Thus,iftheworkersspendthisincome,itmustbeenoughtopayforallthegoodsandservicestheyproduce.Therefore,supplycreatesitsowndemand.ThomasMalthus’Critique

Supposeincomeearnersdon’tspendalltheirmoneyandinsteadsavesomeofit?That’sexactlytheproblemThomasMalthusraised.Malthussaidthatifpeopledidn’tspendalloftheirmoney,therewouldbeageneralglut充斥、過剩

ofgoodsandpeoplewouldbeoutofwork.Say’sResponseItdoesn’tmatterifpeoplesavesomeoftheirmoneybecauseallofthesesavingswill,inturn,beinvestedintheeconomy.Thereforeaggregatedemand,whichequalsconsumptionplusinvestment,willalwaysequalaggregatesupply.Say’sLawandtheCircularFlowDiagramAggregateSupply(AS)=Employeecompensation,rents,interest,andprofitAggregateDemand(AD)=Consumption+InvestmentSavingsBankHouseholdsInvestmentFirms(Production)ConsumptionBankingandFinanceUnemploymentWouldGoAwaySay’slawdidn’tsayunemploymentcouldn’texist.Ifwages,prices,andinterestrateswereallowedtoadjust,unemploymentwouldgoawayonitsown.TheQuantityTheoryofMoneyClassicaleconomistssupportedtheirSay’sLawanalysiswiththequantitytheoryofmoney.ThequantitytheoryofmoneydeterminesthepricelevelwhileSay’sLawanalysisdeterminesrealoutput.TheEquationOfExchangeM*V=P*QMequalsthemoneysupply.Visthevelocityofmoneyortheamountofincomegeneratedeachyearbyadollarofmoney.Pisthegeneralpricelevelasmeasuredbyanindexsuchastheconsumerpriceindex.Qisthequantityofrealoutputsold.M*V=P*QThequantitytheoryofmoneysaysthatthepricelevelvariesinresponsetochangesinthequantityofmoney.

Changesinthepricelevelarecausedsimplybychangesinthemoneysupply.Ifthemoneysupplygoesupby20percent,pricesgoupby20percent.TwoImportantAssumptions1.Velocityisconstant.2.Veil面紗ofMoney:Realoutputisnotinfluencedbythemoneysupply.Itdoesn’tmatterhowmuchmoneythegovernmentprints,itwillnotincreasetheamountofgoodsandservicesthattheeconomycanactuallyproduce.LookingatMV=PQ,whywillincreasingthemoneysupplywillonlyleadtoinflation?MV=PQIfVisconstantontheleftsideandQontherightsideisunaffectedbyM,theonlythingthatcanchangeifMchanges,isP.勞動力市場與充分就業(yè)均衡生產(chǎn)函數(shù)：Y=F(N,K)NYY=F(N,K)O勞動力需求與供給NsNdEW/PNONAD-AS模型QuAS1AD1P1PriceOutputTheAS-ADFrameworkPotentialOutputQcEADPricelevelRealdomesticoutput,GDPItshowsthevariousamountsofrealoutputthatdomesticconsumers,businesses,andgovernmentalongwithforeignbuyerscollectivelydesiretopurchaseateachpossibleprice.P3Q3P2Q2P1Q1ADPricelevelRealdomesticoutput,GDPThedownwardslopeoftheaggregatedemandcurvemeansthatasthegeneralpricelevelfalls,consumersandbusinesseswillincreasetheirdemandforgoodsandservices.ADPricelevelRealdomesticoutput,GDPFirst,thereisa“realbalance”or“wealth”effect.Asthepricelevelfalls,thepurchasingpowerofconsumersincreases,andtheydemandmoregoodsandservices.Therealvalueofmoneyismeasuredbyhowmanygoodsandserviceseachdollarwillbuy.Alowerpricelevelincreasestherealvalueorpurchasingpowerofaccumulatedfinancialassetssuchassavingsaccountsandbondsthathavefixedmoneyvalues.ADPricelevelRealdomesticoutput,GDPForexample,ahouseholdmightnotbuyanewcarorsailboatifthepurchasingpowerofitsassetsisonly$30,000.Ifthereis“deflation”andthepricelevelfalls,thehousehold’srealpurchasingpowermayincreaseto,say,$50,000sothenewpurchaseismorelikelytobemade.ADPricelevelRealdomesticoutput,GDPAsecondreasonwhytheaggregatedemandcurveslopesdownwardisan“interestrateeffect.”Asthepricelevelfalls,so,too,dointerestrates.Fallinginterestrates,inturn,increaseinvestmentspendingbybusinessesaswellascertainkindsofconsumerspendingonitemssuchasautomobilesandhousing.ADPricelevelRealdomesticoutput,GDPThird,thereisa“foreignpurchases,”“foreign-trade,”or“netexporteffect.”Asthedomesticpricelevelfalls,therelativepriceofforeigngoodsincreases.Thisreducesthedemandforthenowmoreexpensiveforeignimports,increasesthedemandforexports,andtherebyalsoincreasestheaggregatequantitydemanded.WhyTheADCurveCanShiftAggregatedemandisthegraphshowingthevariousamountsofrealoutputthatwouldbepurchasedateachpossiblepricelevel,holdingotherthingsconstant.Butwhatarethese“otherthings”wearetalkingabout?1.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveThesefactorsarereferredtoasthedeterminantsofaggregatedemandbecausetheydeterminethelocationoftheaggregatedemandcurve.1.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AD1AD2AD3IncreaseinaggregatedemandDecreaseinaggregatedemand1.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AD1AD2AD31.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AD1AD2AD31.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AD1AD2AD3ExpansionaryFiscalorMonetaryPolicyContractionaryFiscalorMonetaryPolicy1.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AD1AD2AD31.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AD1AD2AD3SupposethattheDowJonesstockmarketaverageplunges2000pointsinaweek.WhichiteminthetablewillthisaffectandwhichwaywilltheADcurveshift?1.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AD1AD3HowmightnewsofapossiblerecessionaffectconsumerandprofitexpectationandtheADcurve?1.Changeinconsumerspending a.Consumerwealth b.Consumerexpectations c.Householdindebtednessorcredit conditions d.Taxpolicy2.Changeininvestmentspending a.Interestrates b.Profitexpectationsoninvestment projects c.Businesstaxes d.Technology e.Degreeofexcesscapacity3.Changeingovernmentspending4.Changeinnetexportspending a.Nationalincomeabroad b.ExchangeratesDeterminantsofaggregatedemand:factorswhichshifttheaggregatedemandcurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AD1AD3AS PriceOutputTheAS-ADFrameworkThecurveslopesupwardbecausehigherpricelevelscreateanincentiveforbusinessestoproduceandselladditionaloutputwhilelowerpricelevelsreduceoutput.1.Changeininputprices a.Domesticresourceavailability a.Land b.Labor c.Capital d.Entrepreneurialability b.Pricesofimportedresources c.Marketpower2.Changeintechnologyandproductivity3.Changeinlegal-institutional

environment a.Businesstaxesandsubsidies b.GovernmentregulationsDeterminantsofaggregatesupply:factorswhichshifttheaggregatesupplycurveRealdomesticoutput,GDP0AS1Whichwaywillthesupplycurveshiftifthecostofimportedoilrises?Pricelevel1.Changeininputprices a.Domesticresourceavailability a.Land b.Labor c.Capital d.Entrepreneurialability b.Pricesofimportedresources c.Marketpower2.Changeintechnologyandproductivity3.Changeinlegal-institutional

environment a.Businesstaxesandsubsidies b.GovernmentregulationsDeterminantsofaggregatesupply:factorswhichshifttheaggregatesupplycurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0AS1ADAS2Q1Q2P2P1Cost-pushInflation1.Changeininputprices a.Domesticresourceavailability a.Land b.Labor c.Capital d.Entrepreneurialability b.Pricesofimportedresources c.Marketpower2.Changeintechnologyandproductivity3.Changeinlegal-institutional

environment a.Businesstaxesandsubsidies b.GovernmentregulationsDeterminantsofaggregatesupply:factorswhichshifttheaggregatesupplycurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0ADProductivity=Anincreaseinproductivitymeanstheeconomycanobtainmorerealoutputfromitslimitedresources.SowhichwaydoyouthinktheAScurvewillshiftifproductivityincreases?totaloutputtotalinputsAS11.Changeininputprices a.Domesticresourceavailability a.Land b.Labor c.Capital d.Entrepreneurialability b.Pricesofimportedresources c.Marketpower2.Changeintechnologyandproductivity3.Changeinlegal-institutional

environment a.Businesstaxesandsubsidies b.GovernmentregulationsDeterminantsofaggregatesupply:factorswhichshifttheaggregatesupplycurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0ADIncreasesinproductivityincreasethepotentialoutputofaneconomy.AS1AS3AS11.Changeininputprices a.Domesticresourceavailability a.Land b.Labor c.Capital d.Entrepreneurialability b.Pricesofimportedresources c.Marketpower2.Changeintechnologyandproductivity3.Changeinlegal-institutional

environment a.Businesstaxesandsubsidies b.GovernmentregulationsDeterminantsofaggregatesupply:factorswhichshifttheaggregatesupplycurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0ADWhatwillhappentotheAScurveifthesalestaxorthepayrolltaxorexcisetaxes貨物稅執(zhí)照稅aredecreased?1.Changeininputprices a.Domesticresourceavailability a.Land b.Labor c.Capital d.Entrepreneurialability b.Pricesofimportedresources c.Marketpower2.Changeintechnologyandproductivity3.Changeinlegal-institutional

environment a.Businesstaxesandsubsidies b.GovernmentregulationsDeterminantsofaggregatesupply:factorswhichshifttheaggregatesupplycurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0ADAtaxdecreasewilldecreaseproductioncostsandtherebyincreaseaggregatesupply.AS1AS3Whataboutanincreaseingovernmentregulationsuchastoughercleanairorcleanwater?1.Changeininputprices a.Domesticresourceavailability a.Land b.Labor c.Capital d.Entrepreneurialability b.Pricesofimportedresources c.Marketpower2.Changeintechnologyandproductivity3.Changeinlegal-institutional

environment a.Businesstaxesandsubsidies b.GovernmentregulationsDeterminantsofaggregatesupply:factorswhichshifttheaggregatesupplycurveRealdomesticoutput,GDPPricelevel0ADAS1AS2KeynesianRangeAggregateOutputThreeRangesoftheEconomyPriceLevelIntermediateRangeClassicalRangeKeynesianRangeAggregateOutputIncreasingoutputwillnotleadtoanyinflation.Theeconomyislikelytobeeitherinasevererecessionorafull-blown成熟的充分發(fā)展的depression.Largeamountsofunusedmachineryandequipmentandunemployedworkersareavailable.Puttingtheseresourcesbacktoworkwillhavenoaffectoninflation.Thus,inthisrangepricesarefixed.ThreeRangesoftheEconomyPriceLevelKeynesianRangeAggregateOutputThreeRangesoftheEconomyAD1AD2Q1Q2PriceLevelPAggregateOutputTheonlyimpactofexpansionaryfiscalpolicyistoincreasethepricelevelThreeRangesoftheEconomyClassicalRangeKeynesianRangeQcPriceLevelAggregateOutputPriceLevelThreeRangesoftheEconomyClassicalRangeKeynesianRangeQcAD5AD6P5P6demand-pullinflationIntermediateRangeAggregateOutputThreeRangesoftheEconomyKeynesianRangeQcQuClassicalRangeAnyexpansionofrealoutputisaccompaniedbyar