外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯譯文

一、外文原文

原文：

RiskManagement

Thischapterreviewsanddiscussesthebasicissuesandprinciplesofrisk

management,including:riskacceptability(tolerability);riskreductionandthe

ALARPprinciple;cautionaryandprecautionaryprinciples.Andpresentsacasestudy

showingtheimportanceoftheseissuesandprinciplesinapracticalmanagement

context.Beforewetakeacloserlook,letusbrieflyaddresssomebasicfeaturesofrisk

management.

Thepurposeofriskmanagementistoensurethatadequatemeasuresaretakento

protectpeople,theenvironment,andassetsfrompossibleharmfulconsequencesof

theactivitiesbeingundertaken,aswellastobalancedifferentconcerns,inparticular

risksandcosts.Riskmanagementincludesmeasuresbothtoavoidthehazardsandto

reducetheirpotentialharm.Traditionally,inindustriessuchasnuclear,oil,andgas,

riskmanagementwasbasedonaprescriptiveregulatingregime,inwhichdetailed

requirementsweresetwithregardtothedesignandoperationofthearrangements.

Thisregimehasgraduallybeenreplacedbyamoregoal-orientedregime,putting

emphasisonwhattoachieveratherthanonthemeansofachievingit.

Riskmanagementisanintegralaspectofagoal-orientedregime.Itis

acknowledgedthatriskcannotbeeliminatedbutmustbemanaged.Thereis

nowadaysanciionuousdriveandculhusiasiiiinvaiiousindustriesandinsociety空a

wholetoimplementriskmanagementinorganizations.Therearehighexpectations

thatriskmanagementistheproperframeworkthroughwhichtoachievehighlevelsof

performance.

Riskmanagementinvolvesachievinganappropriatebalancebetweenrealizing

opportunitiesfbrgainandminimizinglosses.Itisanintegralpartofgood

managementpracticeandanessentialelementofgoodcorporategovernance.Itisan

iterativeprocessconsistingofstepsthat,whenundertakeninsequence,canleadtoa

continuousimprovementindecision-makingandfacilitateacontinuousimprovement

inperformance.

Tosupportdecision-makingregardingdesignandoperation,riskanalysesare

carriedout.Theyincludetheidentificationofhazardsandthreats,causeanalyses,

consequenceanalyses,andriskdescriptions.Theresultsarethenevaluated.The

totalityoftheanalysesandtheevaluationsarereferredtoasriskassessments.Risk

assessmentisfollowedbyrisktreatment,whichisaprocessinvolvingthe

developmentandimplementationofmeasurestomodifytherisk,includingmeasures

designedtoavoid,reduce("optimize"),transfer,orretaintherisk.Risktransfermeans

sharingwithanotherpartythebenefitorlossassociatedwitharisk.Itistypically

affectedthroughinsurance.Riskmanagementcoversallcoordinatedactivitiesinthe

directionandcontrolofanorganizationwithregardtorisk.

Inmanyenterprises,theriskmanagementtasksaredividedintothreemain

categories:strategicrisk,financialrisk,andoperationalrisk.Strategicriskincludes

aspectsandfactorsthatareimportantfortheenterpriserslong-termstrategyandplans,

forexamplemergersandacquisitions,technology,competition,politicalconditions,

legislationandregulations,andlabormarket.Financialriskincludestheenterprise's

financialsituation,andincludes:Marketrisk,associatedwiththecostsofgoodsand

services,foreignexchangeratesandsecurities(shares,bonds,etc.).Creditrisk,

associatedwithadebtor'sfailuretomeetitsobligationsinaccordancewithagreed

terms.Liquidityrisk,reflectinglackofaccesstocash;thedifficultyofsellinganasset

inatimelymanner.Operationalriskisrelatedtoconditionsaffectingthenormal

opcralingsilualiuu:Avciduulalevents,includingfailuresanddefects,quality

deviations,naturaldisasters.Intendedacts;sabotage,disgruntledemployees,etc.Loss

ofcompetence,keypersonnel.Legalcircumstances,associatedforinstance,with

defectivecontractsandliabilityinsurance.

Foranenterprisetobecomesuccessfulinitsimplementationofriskmanagement,

lopmanagementneedslobeinvolved,andactivitiesmustbeputintoeffectonmany

levels.Someimportantpointstoensuresuccessarc:theestablishmentofastrategy

forriskmanagement,i.e.,theprinciplesofhowtheenterprisedefinesandimplements

riskmanagement.Shouldonesimplyfollowtheregulatoryrequirements(minimal

requirements),orshouldonebethe“bestintheclass"?Theestablishmentofarisk

managementprocessfortheenterprise,i.e.formalprocessesandroutinesthatthe

enterpriseistofollow.Theestablishmentofmanagementstructures,withrolesand

responsibilities,suchthattheriskanalysisprocessbecomesintegratedintothe

organization.Theimplementationofanalysesandsupportsystems,suchasrisk

analysistools,recordingsystemsforoccurrencesofvarioustypesofevents,etc.The

communication,training,anddevelopmentofariskmanagementculture,sothatthe

competence,understanding,andmotivationlevelwithintheorganizationisenhanced.

Giventheabovefundamentalsofriskmanagement,thenextstepistodevelop

principlesandamethodologythatcanbeusedinpracticaldecision-making.Thisis

not,however,straightforward.Thereareanumberofchallengesandhereweaddress

someofthese:establishinganinformativeriskpictureforthevariousdecision

altemalives,usingthisriskpictureinadecision-makingcontext.Establishingan

informativeriskpicturemeansidentifyingappropriateriskindicesandassessmentsof

uncertainties.Usingtheriskpictureinadecisionmakingcontextmeansthedefinition

andapplicationofriskacceptancecriteria,costbenefitanalysesandtheALARP

principle,whichstates:hatriskshouldbereducedtoalevelwhichisaslowasis

reasonablypracticable.

Itiscommontodefineanddescriberisksintermsofprobabilitiesandexpected

values.Thishas,however,beenchallenged,sincetheprobabilitiesandexpected

valuescancamouflageuncertainties;theassignedprobabilitiesareconditionalona

numberofassuuipliousandsuppusilions,andtheydependonthebackground

knowledge.Uncertaintiesareoftenhiddeninthisbackgroundknowledge,and

restrictingattentiontotheassignedprobabilitiescancamouflagefactorsthatcould

producesurprisingoutcomes.Byjumpingdirectlyintoprobabilities,important

uncertainlyaspectsareeasilytruncated,andpotentialsurprisesmaybeleft

unconsidered.

Letus,asanexample,considertherisks,seenthroughtheeyesofariskanalyst

inthe1970s,associatedwithfuturehealthproblemsfordiversworkingonoffshore

petroleumprojects.Theanalystassignsavaluetotheprobabilitythatadiverwould

experiencehealthproblems(properlydefined)duringthecoming30yearsduetothe

divingactivities.Letusassumethatavalueof1%wasassigned,anumberbasedon

theknowledgeavailableatthattime.Therearenostrongindicationsthatthedivers

willexperiencehealthproblems,butweknowtodaythattheseprobabilitiesledto

poorpredictions.Manydivershaveexperiencedseverehealthproblems(Avonand

Vine,2007).Byrestrictingrisktotheprobabilityassignmentsalone,important

aspectsofuncertaintyandriskarehidden.Thereisalackofunderstandingaboutthe

underlyingphenomena,buttheprobabilityassignmentsalonearenotabletofully

describethisstatus.

Severalriskperspectivesanddefinitionshavebeenproposedinlinewiththis

realization.Forexample,Avon(2007a,2008a)definesriskasthetwo-dimensional

combinationofevents/consequencesandassociateduncertainties(willtheevents

occur,whattheconsequenceswillbe).Acloselyrelatedperspectiveissuggestedby

AvonandRenan(2008a),whodefineriskassociatedwithanactivityasuncertainty

aboutandseverityoftheconsequencesoftheactivity,whereseverityrefersto

intensity,size,extension,scopeandotherpotentialmeasuresofmagnitudewith

respecttosomethingthathumansvalue(lives,theenvironment,money,etc.).Losses

andgains,expressedforexampleinmonetarytermsorasthenumberoffatalities,are

waysofdefiningtheseverityoftheconsequences.SeealsoAvonandChristensen

(2005).

Inthecaseoflargeuncertainties,riskassessmentscansupportdecision-making,

butoilierprinciples,measures,andinslruinuiilsarcalsurequired,suchaslliu

cautionary/precautionaryprinciplesaswellasrobustnessandresiliencestrategies.An

informativedecisionbasisisneeded,butitshouldbefarmorenuancedthancanbe

obtainedbyaprobabilisticanalysisalone.Thishasbeenstressedbymanyresearchers,

e.g.Apostolicism(1990)andApostolicismandLemon(2005):qualitativerisk

analysis(QRA)resultsareneverthesolebasisfordecision-making.Safety-and

security-relateddecision-makingisrisk-informed,notrisk-based.Thisconclusionis

not,however,justifiedmerelybyreferringtotheneedforaddressinguncertainties

beyondprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Themainissuehereisthefactthatrisks

needtobebalancedwithotherconcerns.

Whenvarioussolutionsandmeasuresaretobecomparedandadecisionistobe

made,theanalysisandassessmentsthathavebeenconductedprovideabasisforsuch

adecision.Inmanycases,establisheddesignprinciplesandstandardsprovideclear

guidance.Compliancewithsuchprinciplesandstandardsmustbeamongthefirst

referencepointswhenassessingrisks.Itiscommonthinkingthatriskmanagement

processes,andespeciallyALARPprocesses,requireformalguidelinesorcriteria(e.g.,

riskacceptancecriteriaandcost-effectivenessindices)tosimplifythe

decision-making.Caremust;however,beshownwhenusingthistypeofformal

decision-makingcriteria,astheyeasilyresultinamechanizationofthe

decision-makingprocess.Suchmechanizationisunfortunatebecause:

Decision-makingcriteriabasedonrisk-relatednumbersalone(probabilitiesand

expectedvalues)donotcapturealltheaspectsofrisk,costs,andbenefits,nomethod

hasaprecisionthatjustifiesamechanicaldecisionbasedonwhethertheresultisover

orbelowanumericalcriterion.Itisamanagerialresponsibilitytomakedecisions

underuncertainty,andmanagementshouldbeawareoftherelevantrisksand

uncertainties.

ApostolicismandLemon(2005)adoptapragmaticapproachtoriskanalysisand

riskmanagement,acknowledgingthedifficultiesofdeterminingtheprobabilitiesof

anattack.Ideally,theywouldliketoimplementarisk-informedprocedure,basedon

expectedvalues.However,sincesuchanapproachwouldrequiretheuseof

probabilitiesdialhavenulbeen"'rigorouslyderived”,theybeeihcnibulvcsforcedlo

resorttoamorepragmaticapproach.

Thisisonepossibleapproachwhenfacingproblemsoflargeuncertainties.The

riskanalysessimplydonotprovideasufficientlysolidbasisforthedecision-making

process.Wearguealongthesamelines.Thereisaneedforamanagementreviewand

judgmentprocess.Itisnecessarytoseebeyondthecomputedriskpictureintheform

oftheprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.1raditionalquantitativeriskanalysesfailin

thisrespect.Weacknowledgetheneedforanalyzingrisk,butquestionthevalue

addedbyperformingtraditionalquantitativeriskanalysesinthecaseoflarge

uncertainties.Thearbitrarinessinthenumbersproducedcanbesignificant,duetothe

uncertaintiesintheestimatesorasaresultoftheuncertaintyassessmentsbeing

stronglydependentontheanalysts.

Itshouldbeacknowledgedthatriskcannotbeaccuratelyexpressedusing

probabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Aquantitativeriskanalysisisinmanycasesbetter

replacedbyamorequalitativeapproach,asshownintheexamplesabove;an

approachwhichmaybereferredtoasasemi-quantitativeapproach.Quantifyingrisk

usingriskindicessuchastheexpectednumberoffatalitiesgivesanimpressionthat

riskcanbeexpressedinaverypreciseway.However,inmostcases,thearbitrariness

islarge.Tnasemi-quantitativeapproachthisisacknowledgedbyprovidingamore

nuancedriskpicture,whichincludesfactorsthatcancause“surprises”relativetothe

probabilitiesandtheexpectedvalues.Quantificationoftenrequiresstrong

simplificationsandassumptionsand,asaresult,importantfactorscouldbeignoredor

giventoolittle(ortoomuch)weight.Inaqualitativeorsemi-quantitativeanalysis,a

morecomprehensiveriskpicturecanbeestablished,takingintoaccountunderlying

factorsinfluencingrisk.Incontrasttotheprevailinguseofquantitativeriskanalyses,

theprecisionleveloftheriskdescriptionisinlinewiththeaccuracyoftherisk

analysistools.Inaddition,riskquantificationisveryresourcedemanding.Oneneeds

toaskwhethertheresourcesareusedinthebestway.Weconcludethatinmanycases

moreisgainedbyopeningupthewaytoabroader,morequalitativeapproach,which

allowsforconsiderationsbeyondtheprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.

Thutradilioualquanlilalivcriskasbcssincnlsasseenforcxainplcinihcnuclear

andtheoil&gasindustriesprovidearathernarrov/riskpicture,throughcalculated

probabilitiesandexpectedvalues,andweconcludethatthisapproachshouldbeused

withcareforproblemswithlargeuncertainties.Alternativeapproacheshighlighting

thequalitativeaspectsaremoreappropriateinsuchcases.Abroadriskdescriptionis

required.Thisisalsothecaseinthenormativeambiguitysituations,astherisk

characterizationsprovideabasisfortheriskevaluationprocesses.1'hcmainconcern

isthevaluejudgments,buttheyshouldbesupportedbysolidscientificassessments,

showingabroadriskpicture.Ifonetriestodemonstratethatitisrationaltoaccept

risk,onascientificbasis,toonarrowanapproachtoriskhasbeenadopted.

Recognizinguncertaintyasamaincomponentofriskisessentialtosuccessfully

implementriskmanagement,forcasesoflargeuncertaintiesandnormative

ambiguity.

Ariskdescriptionshouldcovercomputedprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues,as

wellas:Sensitivitiesshowinghowtheriskindicesdependonthebackground

knowledge(assumptionsandsuppositions);Uncertaintyassessments;Descriptionof

thebackgroundknowledge,includingmodelsanddataused.

Theuncertaintyassessmentsshouldnotberestrictedtostandardprobabilistic

analysis,asthisanalysiscouldhideimportantuncertaintyfactors.Thesearchfor

quantitative,explicitapproachesforexpressingtheuncertainties,evenbeyondthe

subjectiveprobabilities,mayseemtobeapossiblewayforward.However,suchan

approachisnotrecominended.Tryingtobepreciseandtoaccuratelyexpresswhatis

extremelyuncertaindoesnotmakesense.Insteadwerecommendamoreopen

qualitativeapproachtorevealsuchuncertainties.Somemightconsiderthistobeless

attractivefromamethodologicalandscientificpointofview.Perhapsitis,butit

wouldbemoresuitedforsolvingtheproblemathand,whichisabouttheanalysisand

managementofriskanduncertainties.

Source:TeijeAven.2010.“RiskManagement”.RiskinTechnologicalSystems,Oct,

P175-198.

二、翻譯文章

譯文：

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理

本章回顧和討論風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本問題和原則,包括：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可接受性(耐受性)、

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)削減和安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理原則、警示和預(yù)防原則，并提出了一個(gè)研究案例，說明

在實(shí)際管理環(huán)境中這些問題和原則的重要性。這需要我們的深入研究，在此之前,

讓我們簡單談?wù)勶L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的一些基本特征。

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的目的是：在現(xiàn)時(shí)事件產(chǎn)生有害后果時(shí).，及時(shí)采取適當(dāng)?shù)拇胧┮源_

保人類，環(huán)境和資產(chǎn)的安全，以及平衡人們的不同關(guān)注取向，特別是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和成本。

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理包括兩種措施，控制危險(xiǎn)源和減少潛在的危害。傳統(tǒng)上，諸如核能，石

油和天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理主要是依靠規(guī)范監(jiān)管制度來管理的，這項(xiàng)制度對設(shè)計(jì)

和操作的安排提出了系統(tǒng)性的要求。但是漸漸的，這一制度已被一項(xiàng)更加標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化

的制度所取代，此制度是強(qiáng)調(diào)要取得的成果而不是如何實(shí)現(xiàn)這些成果的手段。

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化制度的一個(gè)組成部分。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不能消除，只能加以控制改善,

這是被人們所公認(rèn)的?，F(xiàn)在有一項(xiàng)具有巨大驅(qū)動力和感召力的措施正應(yīng)運(yùn)而生，

它將不同產(chǎn)業(yè)和社會作為一個(gè)整體來實(shí)施組織風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是一項(xiàng)適當(dāng)?shù)?/p>

措施，人們對于用它來實(shí)現(xiàn)高產(chǎn)值有很大的期望C

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理包括可認(rèn)識到的實(shí)現(xiàn)增益的機(jī)會和7員失的最小化，并且在它們之間

實(shí)現(xiàn)適當(dāng)?shù)钠胶?。這是一個(gè)組織構(gòu)成良好有效的管理實(shí)踐的基本要素這是一個(gè)

由遞進(jìn)步驟組成的反復(fù)的過程，按順序進(jìn)行時(shí)，能不斷提高決策正確性并且促進(jìn)

產(chǎn)值的不斷增長。

為了支持決策方面的設(shè)計(jì)和操作，需要進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。它們包括危害物和威

脅識別，成因分析，結(jié)果分析和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)描述鑒定，然后評估結(jié)果。所有的分析和評

估將被作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估。其次是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的處理辦法，這是一個(gè)過程，涉及開發(fā)和

實(shí)施措施來緩和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，措施包括避免，減少（“優(yōu)化”），轉(zhuǎn)移或保留風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

轉(zhuǎn)移意味著與另一方共同享有利益或承擔(dān)由于損失造成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。它最典型的是受

保險(xiǎn)的影響。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理涵蓋了所有協(xié)調(diào)活動的方向目標(biāo)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組織。

在許多企業(yè)中，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的任務(wù)分為三大類：戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)營風(fēng)

險(xiǎn)。戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括對丁企業(yè)的長期戰(zhàn)略和計(jì)劃起重要作用的方面和因素，例如兼

并和收購，技術(shù)，競爭，政治環(huán)境，法律和法規(guī)，以及勞工市場。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括

影響企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況的因素，包括：市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，商品和服務(wù)，外匯匯率和證券的相

關(guān)成本（股票，債權(quán)等）；信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，與債務(wù)人沒有按照其約定的有關(guān)條款履行

義務(wù)；流動性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，反映現(xiàn)金缺乏時(shí)，及時(shí)出售資產(chǎn)的困難。操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是有關(guān)條

件影響正常工作的情況：意外的事件，包括故障和缺陷，質(zhì)量差，自然災(zāi)害；預(yù)

期行為，破壞，心懷不滿的雇員等；喪失競爭力，關(guān)鍵人員；與法律環(huán)境下相關(guān)

的，例如有缺陷合同及責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)。

一個(gè)企業(yè)要成功實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，需要高層管理人員參與，活動必須落實(shí)在許

多層面上。確保成功的要點(diǎn)是一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理戰(zhàn)略的確立，例如企業(yè)如何定義和實(shí)

施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原則。難道僅僅只需遵照監(jiān)管要求（最低要求），或追求“成為最

好的”？企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程的建立，包括企業(yè)貫徹的正式流程和常規(guī)。建立管理

結(jié)構(gòu)，包括角色和責(zé)任分配，這樣，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過程和組織融為一體。分析和支持

系統(tǒng)的實(shí)施，如風(fēng)險(xiǎn)工具分析，執(zhí)行，記錄系統(tǒng)各種類型的事件的發(fā)生等。溝通,

培訓(xùn)和發(fā)展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理文化，這樣，組織的能力，理解和動機(jī)水平得到增強(qiáng)。實(shí)施

了上述風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基礎(chǔ)原則后，下一步是制定可用于實(shí)際決策中的原則和方法。

然而，這并不是那么簡單，還有一系列的挑戰(zhàn)，在這里我們列舉其中一些：為不

同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇建立一個(gè)豐富的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息平臺，將其運(yùn)用到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策環(huán)境中°這意

味著正確認(rèn)識不確定因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策方面則意味著接受

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義和準(zhǔn)則，成本效益分析和安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理原則，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)該降低到實(shí)際合

理的最低水平。

定義和描述關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率和預(yù)期性價(jià)值是常見的現(xiàn)象。然而，這受到了挑

戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)楦怕屎皖A(yù)期值的不確定性是隱蔽的。概率的分配都是有條件的基于數(shù)量

的簡單假設(shè)和推測，他們依據(jù)的是背景知識。不確定性往往是隱藏在這個(gè)背景知

識后面，注意限制性是由于給定的概率而產(chǎn)生的，這些因素的隱蔽性可能產(chǎn)生令

人驚訝的結(jié)果。直接考慮到了重要的不確定性因素容易被阻隔的可能性，而潛在

的驚喜可能會是你不曾考慮到的。

讓我們舉一個(gè)例子，通過20世紀(jì)70年代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析師分析海上石油項(xiàng)目工作

的有關(guān)潛水員未來健康的問題來考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。該分析師對潛水員在未來30年中將

經(jīng)歷的由丁潛水活動而產(chǎn)生的健康問題（正確的定義）分配一個(gè)價(jià)值概率。讓我

們假設(shè)1%的價(jià)值被分配，以當(dāng)時(shí)的知識為基礎(chǔ)是合適的。沒有強(qiáng)烈的跡象表明

潛水員會遇到健康問題，但在今天我們知道這些概率導(dǎo)致了較少的預(yù)測。許多潛

水員們已出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的健康問題（Avon和Vine,2007）。通過限制單獨(dú)作業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

的概率，不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要方面被隱藏了。由于對深層次的現(xiàn)象缺乏了解，

單獨(dú)作業(yè)的概率不能充分描述這種狀態(tài)。

一些危險(xiǎn)的觀點(diǎn)和定義已被提出并且已被證實(shí)符合這個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)。例如，Avon

(2007a,2008a)把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義為事件/后果和相關(guān)不確定性的二維組合(將發(fā)生

的事件，后果將是什么)。Avon和Ronan(2008a)建議從一個(gè)密切相關(guān)的角度

將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義為有關(guān)不確定性活動及其產(chǎn)生的嚴(yán)重后果，其嚴(yán)重性是指強(qiáng)度，大小,

擴(kuò)展，范圍和其他潛在的關(guān)于人類價(jià)值(生活，環(huán)境，金錢等)的大小措施。損

失和收益，例如以貨幣形式或死亡人數(shù)表述的，足界定后果的嚴(yán)重程度的方法。

另見Avon和Christensen(2005)。

在具有較大不確定性的情況下，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估可以支持決策，但其他原則，措施

和手段也需要