ab

Poweredby

UBSEvidenceLab

GlobalResearch

23June2025

Tesla,Inc.

TheTeslaRobotaxiNetworkopportunity

Investorfocusonrobotaxiishigh.WithTeslalaunchingtheirfirstrobotaxiserviceinAustin,investorfocusontheautonomousride-hailingopportunityisveryhigh.Assuch,wetakealookattheopportunity.Net,ifallgoesaccordingtoplan(technology,regulatory,buildingandscalinganetwork,etc.)theopportunitycanbesignificant-potentiallya2.3mmvehiclefleetby2040generating~$200bninrevenue.Recall,ElonMuskindicatedthatautonomyisoneoftwo(alongwithhumanoidrobots)maindriversofthestock’slong-termvalue.WhileTeslaappearstobewellpositioned,webelievetheopportunityisalreadypricedintothestock.Webuiltoutourrobotaximodelandbelievetheopportunityisworth~$99/sharewhichwhenconsideringotherpartsofTSLA'sbusiness,stillleavesuscautiousonTSLA'soverallvaluation.

Teslaisuniquelypositionedforanallrobotaxiservice.Thisisduetotheirverticalintegrationofautonomousstackandvehicle,alongwithrunningtheirowntransportationnetworkcompany(TNC).Inthisnote,welayoutaplausiblecaseforhowTesla’sUSrobotaxiservicecangrowandwhatitcouldlooklikeby2040.Thatsaid,TSLA'sinitialrobotaxiservicemaystartsmall/limitedincluding:10-20vehicles,geo-fenced,employees/inviteonly,safetymonitors,tele-operations.But,thisisn’tdifferentfromhowotherautonomousridehailingservicesstarted.Webelieveit’sprudentforTeslatobeginoperationsthiswaybeforescaling.Despitelimitedinitialoperations,startingtheservicecanhelpTeslacontroltherobotaxinarrativewhilealsodrawingmoreinvestorinterestandfocustothisopportunity,whichcouldbuoythestock.Note:whilewedetailourassumptionsinside,wecaveatthatalotofassumptionsneedtobemadeandwhencombinedwithalongevaluationperiod,thisincreasesthevariabilityofoutcomes.Pleasereachoutforourmodeltoinputyourownassumptions.

Robotaxisimulation.Togiveaglimpseintowhatarobotaxiworldcouldlooklike,UBSEvidenceLabtookrealNYCTLCdataandsimulatedarobotaxifleet.Seep.20.

Valuation:RaisingPTto$215from$190.Ourrobotaximodelyieldsavalueof~$350bnor~$99/share(assumingsuccessfultech,execution,regulation),abovethethe~$225bn($64/share)wepreviouslyassignedtothebusiness.However,webelievethecore“traditional”autobusinessmaybeworthonly$25/shareandEnergy~$19/share.Thatwouldstillleave~$180/shareor~$630bnlefttojusttoexplainthecurrentstockprice(notevenconsideringunderwritinganinvestment).Wecurrentlyassign$250bntotheTeslapremium(whichincludesotheroptionalityincludingHumanoidRobots),whichisinlinewiththe2-year“unidentified”premiumaverage.Ournew$215PTisbasedon90xour2026EPSestimate(vs.80xprior),roughlyinlinewiththe+1st.dev.avg.ThisissupportedbyourSOTPwhichincludesournewupdatedrobotaxiassumptions.

Equities

UnitedStates

AutomobileManufacturers

12-monthrating

Sell*

12mpricetarget

US$215.00

Prior:US$190.00

Price(20Jun2025)

US$321.87

RIC:TSLA.OBBG:TSLAUS

Tradingdataandkeymetrics

52-wkrangeUS$479.86-182.58

Marketcap.US$1,036b

Shareso/s3,218m(COM)

Freefloat86%

Avg.dailyvolume('000)125,391

Avg.dailyvalue(m)US$36,398.7

Commons/hequity(12/25E)US$79.0bP/BV(12/25E)13.0x

NetdebttoEBITDA(12/25E)NM

EPS(UBS,diluted)(USD)

12/25E

From

To

%ch

Cons.

Q1

0.27

0.27

0

0.27

Q2E

0.47

0.43

-8

0.44

Q3E

0.36

0.34

-6

0.49

Q4E

0.45

0.45

2

0.61

12/25E

1.54

1.48

-3

1.91

12/26E

2.38

2.44

2

2.83

12/27E

3.13

2.89

-8

3.71

JosephSpak

Analyst

joseph.spak@

+1-212-7133089

AlejandroNuno

AssociateAnalyst

alejandro.nuno@

+1-212-7133886

GabrielGonzales

AssociateAnalyst

gabriel.gonzales@

+1-212-7134866

Highlights(US$m)

12/22

12/23

12/24

12/25E

12/26E

12/27E

12/28E

12/29E

Revenues

81,462

96,773

97,690

86,699

102,214

118,772

141,573

172,396

EBIT(UBS)

15,216

10,703

9,075

5,357

9,358

11,299

14,975

19,924

Netearnings(UBS)

14,143

10,884

8,005

5,232

8,620

10,234

13,241

17,476

EPS(UBS,diluted)(US$)

4.07

3.12

2.29

1.48

2.44

2.89

3.73

4.91

DPS(net)(US$)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net(debt)/cash

19,086

23,864

28,350

31,146

33,924

38,326

45,924

57,063

Profitability/valuation

12/22

12/23

12/24

12/25E

12/26E

12/27E

12/28E

12/29E

EBIT(UBS)margin%

18.7

11.1

9.3

6.2

9.2

9.5

10.6

11.6

ROIC(EBIT)%

64.0

32.2

21.3

11.4

18.2

19.7

23.7

28.9

EV/EBITDA(UBScore)x

41.8

39.8

44.2

79.3

56.3

48.5

39.4

31.6

P/E(UBS,diluted)x

64.4

69.6

NM

NM

NM

NM

86.3

65.5

EquityFCF(UBS)yield%

0.2

(0.3)

(0.5)

0.2

0.3

0.4

(0.3)

0.0

Dividendyield(net)%

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Source:Companyaccounts,LSEGEikon,UBSestimates.Metricsmarkedas(UBS)havehadanalystadjustmentsapplied.Valuations:basedonanaveragesharepricethatyear,(E):basedonasharepriceofUS$321.87on20-Jun-202515:42:21EDT

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.*Exceptiontocoreratingbands;SeeRequiredDisclosuressection.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage36.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Tesla,Inc.23June2025ab2

Contents

Robotaxi(AutonomousRideHailing)Landscape

3

TeslaNetworkRevenueDrivers

7

TeslaNetworkExpenseFactors

9

ValuingtheTeslaNetwork

13

Valuation

16

Appendix:Additionalanalyses

18

OverviewofUBSEvidenceLabRobotaxiSimulation

20

HowdoestheUBSEvidenceLabrobotaxisimulationwork? 23

JosephSpak

Analyst

joseph.spak@

+1-212-7133089

AlejandroNuno

AssociateAnalyst

alejandro.nuno@

+1-212-7133886

GabrielGonzales

AssociateAnalyst

gabriel.gonzales@

+1-212-7134866

PatrickHummel,CFA

Analyst

patrick.hummel@

+41-44-2395254

Tesla,Inc.UBSResearch

Tesla,Inc.23June2025ab3

Robotaxi(AutonomousRideHailing)Landscape

Toofferarobotaxiservice,threebroadcategoriesofofferingsareneeded:

1.Theautonomousvehicle(AV)stack.Thisconsistsofbothsoftware(the"brains"-perception,decisionmaking,etc.)andthehardware(computeandsensorssuchascameras,radars,lidars,digitalradars,maps,etc.).Clearly,forarobotaxiservicetobecomeareality,thetechnologymustworkandbeextraordinarilysafe.Inthisnote,weareassumingthatthetechnologycontinuestoimproveandgetstolevelswheretheservicecanscaleandbecomeareality,thoughclearlythetimelineonwhichthisoccurscanbevariable.Wearealsoassuminganyregulatoryhurdlesarecleared

2.Thevehicle.Todate,thisismostlyadaptationsofcurrentproductionvehicles,butinthefuture,therecouldbepurposebuiltvehiclesforAVridehailing(andultimately,webelievemultipleformfactorsfordifferentusecaseswillbeneeded).

3.Thetransportationnetworkcompany(TNC).Simplyput,thisisthenetworkthatmatchesridehailingdemandwithridehailingsupply.

Figure1:SelecttaxonomyoftheUSrobotaxiecosystem

USRobotaxiEcosystem

Vehicle

Producer

Tesla

GM

Ford

Stellantis

Toyota

AVStack

TransportationNetworkCo.

Tesla

Waymo

Mobileye

Wayve

MayMobility

Zoox

Nuro

Tesla

Uber

Lyft

WaymoOne

Zoox

Honda

Nissan

VW

Hyundai/Kia

JLR

VerticallyIntegratedRelationship

Zoox

OtherOEMs

Source:Companyreports,UBSResearch

Thereareotherareasneededsuchasfleetmaintenance,remoteortele-operations,charging,etc.Thereisonemorelargecategorywhichisthefleetowner.Weseparatethisoutbecauseinourview,whoownsthefleetdictatesthebusinessmodel.

TherobotaxiBusinessModel

Asrobotaxisarestillverynascent,thebusinessmodelforrobotaxisisnotyetfullydefinedandwillcontinuetoevolve.It'spossiblethatmultiplebusinessmodelsdevelop,especiallyifmultiplescalableAVsolutionscometomarket.Inourview,thebusinessmodelsaredelineatedbya)howverticallyintegratedacompanyisontheabove3broadcategories(AVstack,vehicle,TNC),andb)whoownstheAVfleet.

AVStackandVehicle

Lookingatthefirsttwocategoriesoftherobotaxilandscape,thedeveloperoftheAVstackcansellorlicensetheirstacktoanautomaker.TheymayalsobeabletonegotiateapertripfeefortheuseofthetechnologyinanAVride-hailenvironment.IftheAVstackdeveloperisverticallyintegratedwiththevehiclemaker,thedevelopmentofthestackbecomesacostthevehiclemakermustbear,butthevehiclesellercanchargeafeetothevehicleownerforuseofthetechnology(monthly,annually,perride,etc.).

ThebusinessmodelforsellingavehiclewithanAVstackisverysimilartotoday(thoughend-customersmayvary,i.e.fleetsvs.consumers).Ifthevehicleproducersacquirethe

Tesla,Inc.23June2025ab4

AVstackfroma3rdparty,theirabilitytochargetheownerfortheAVofferinglikelydependsontheiragreementwithsaidstackprovider,butwecanimagineamonthly/annualfee.TheverticallyintegratedAVstack/vehicleproviderwillbeabletochargethevehicleownerforuseoftheAVtechnology.

Whoownsthefleet?

FromtheperspectiveoftheTNCbusinessmodel.TNC'swillneed"on-the-ground"operationsthatcouldinvolveitemslikecharging/fueling,cleaning,maintenance,customersupport,etc.,thoughmanyoftheseoperationscouldalsobeoutsourcedorhandledbypartners.Themoreimportantvariableforthebusinessmodel,inourview,dependsonwhoownsthefleetofAVs.TherearetwoalternativesfortheAVfleetowner:1)TheTNCownsthefleet;2)Fleetowners(companiesand/orindividuals)"contribute"theirAVstothefleetandruntheirAVsontheTNC.Thesetwodifferentpathsresultindifferentbusinessmodelswithadifferentsetofrevenueopportunitiesandcost.

1.TNCownstheAVfleet.Thisisthe"assetheavy"model.TheTNCgetstokeep100%oftheriders'fares(grossbookings)butbearsallthecostsassociatedwithowning,operating,maintainingtheAVs.

2."Contributed"AVfleet.Thisisthe"assetlight"model.FromtheTNC'sperspective,thislooksverysimilartothecurrenthuman-driverTNC,wherecostsareoffloadedtothevehicleowner/driverandtheTNCcollectsa"takerate"orpercentageofeveryride.

Broadly,fromtheTNCperspective,therevenueandearningsopportunityislargeronadollarbasisunderthe"owned"fleet,butthemargin%islower.Inthe"contributedfleet",therevenueopportunityislower,butthemarginsarehigherandthebusinessmodelcouldlookmore"SaaS"like.

Figure2:Theautonomousride-hailingbusinessmodelwillbedefinedbywhoownsthefleet

Transportation

NetworkCompany

“Whoownsthefleet?”

Fleet(TNC)Owned

Collects“takerate”fromAVonnetwork(assetlight)

ContributedFleet

Collectsallrevenuefrom

ride

Responsibleforallcosts,

maintenanceofvehicle

Paysa“takerate”toTNC(if

notsamecompany

Source:UBSResearch

Thusfar,wehaveseenrobotaxicompaniesexploreavarietyofdifferentinitialbusinessmodels.Forinstance,Waymo,whowebelieveisthemostestablishedplayerinthemarket,hastheirownsoftwarestackandplacesthaton3rdpartyvehicles(Jaguarsfornow,butinthefutureHyundaiandZeekrvehicleshavebothbeenannounced).Fornow,Waymoownsthefleetofvehicles.ButwhenitcomestotheTNC,insomemarkets(SF,LA),theyoperatetheirownWaymoOneTNC.Inothermarkets(Austin,Atlanta),they(will)operateexclusivelyonUber.Instillothermarkets(Phoenix),thevehiclesrunonboththeWaymoOneserviceandUber.ItappearstousthatWaymoisexperimentingwiththebusinessmodel.ThisisfurthersupportedbyAlphabetCEOSudarPichai’scommentsonthe1Q25earningscallwherehestated:“Therearefutureoptionalityaroundpersonalownershipaswell.”Tous,thissuggestsselling/licensingtheirsoftware/hardwarestackto3rdpartyOEMswhowouldthensellvehicleswithWaymotech.Thiscouldenableavehiclewith"two-modes"onethatallowstheownertodrivetheirownvehicleif/whentheywantandonethatallowsthevehicletodriveautonomouslywhen

Tesla,Inc.23June2025ab5

ina"WaymoZone"orcontributeittoaTNCthatoperatesWaymo(againwhereWaymooperates).

OtherplayerssuchasMobileye,Wayve,andMayMobilityappeartobelookingtogettheirtechnologyon3rdpartyvehicles(assetlight)andthenthosevehicleson3rdpartyTNCs.Zooxhasdevelopedtheirownsoftware/hardwarestack,vehicle,andlookstoberunningtheirownTNCservicefornow.

Hybridmodels

Human/AVhybrid

Earlyon,especiallyforexistingTNCs,webelievetherecouldbehybridhuman/robotaxifleets.FortheAVfleet,usagewillbelimitedbytheoperationaldesigndomain(ODD).Simplyput,theLevel4autonomousclassificationrobotaxiswillonlyworkinacertainsetofconditions(geography,weather,etc.).SoiftheAVfleetdoesn'tyetgoonhighwaysortoanareathatisnotservicedbytheAV,analternativetostillusethatTNCisneeded.Further,humanfleetshaveamuchgreaterdiversityofvehicleformfactors(fornow)thatanindividualtripmayrequire(e.g.UberXL,UberXXL,UberBlack,etc.).SoanexistingTNCwilllikelystartoutwithahuman/AVhybridmodel.

ThecurrentTNCmodelhasflexible,dynamicsupply.Whendemandislower,thecost(lowerutilization)istakenonbythedriver.Naturally,onecanassumemanydriversmaygooffthenetworkduringlowdemandperiods(sincetheyareindependentcontractorsandmaketheirownhours).IfdemandishigherandiftheTNCneedstogetmoresupplyonthenetwork,theycanincentivizethedriverstodoso.

AsUbershowedintheir4Q24earningscallandautonomousvehicleprimer,ridesharingdemandishighlyvariablethroughtheweek,andthroughtheyear.

Figure3:Ridesharedemandishighlyvariablebytimeofday,week,seasonandgeography

Source:Ubercompanyreports

However,AVs,ifownedbytheTNC,arefixedsupply.Demandisstillhighlyvariable.ThatmeaningfullyimpactstheutilizationoftheAV.ThismeansthatwhenaTNCaddsrobotaxistotheirnetwork,thisfixedsupplyiscompetingwiththeflexiblesupply.Assuch,aTNCmayprefertohavealow,baselevelofAVs,perhapssomethingatorbelowtroughlevelsofdemand,andthenusehumandrivers(inthishybridmodel)tosupplementanddealwithpeakloads.Thisviewwasechoedby

UberCEODara

KhosrowshahiInani

nterviewwithStratechery'sBenThompson

:"You’regoingtoneedabaselayerthat’llbeAV,andthenyou’regoingtoneedvariabilitytomeethighdemandperiods,andthatwillbeultimatelywethinkahybridnetworkofAVsandhumans."

Inourview,thishuman/AVtensioncouldconceptuallylimitadoptionofAVsintraditionalTNCs.

Tesla,Inc.23June2025ab6

Owned/contribution(all-AV)hybrid

ForanAVexclusiveTNC,weseefleetsstartingoutasnear100%ownedbytheTNC,butgravitatingtowardsahybridowned/contributedmodelovertime.ItisthroughthislensthatTeslamaycurrentlybeuniquelypositionedversusotherplayers.Ourthinkingisverymuchinlinewiththis

postfromventurecapitalistReillyBrennan

.

WhatisuniqueaboutTesla,beingtheonlymajorplayerthatissellingpersonallyownedvehiclesandofferingarobotaxisolution,isthattheycanservethemarketwiththebaselayerofrobotaxis,andthensupplementhigherlevelsofdemandwiththefleet/personallyownedTeslavehiclesbyallowingthem(orincentivizingthem)tojointheTeslanetworktomatchsupplytodemand.ThislimitsTesla’sdirectexposuretoperiodsoflowerutilization.

WhileitmaybepossibleforindividualTesla(orotherAV)ownerstoputtheirvehiclesonaTNC,weseethisevolvingmoretowardsthedomainoffleetcompanies.Fleetcompanieswillbebetterequippedtomanage,maintainandservicetheAVs.Thismaybesimilartohowtherehasbeenmore"professionalization"ofhostpropertiesonAirbnb(fromindividualownership)overtime.WealsoseethepotentialforREIT-likestructurestoemergetoownandmanageAVfleets.

TheTeslaNetwork

Aswesurveythelandscapewelaidoutabove(andadmittedlytakingforgrantedfactorssuchasthetechworks,anetworkcanbebuilt,therearenoregulatoryhurdlesandconsumersadoptthetechnology,etc.),Tesladoesappeartobeuniquelypositionedforarobotaxiservice.TeslahasdevelopedtheirownsoftwarestackandhasstatedtheywanttoruntheirownTNCwhichwearecalling"TheTeslaNetwork".Webelievethattheywillinitiallyownallthecars.Goingforward,inourview,atleastinmajorareasitislikelythattheywillcontinuetoneedtoowncarstoserviceabaselevelofdemand.Overtime,weexpect“individuals”,likelyfleetbusinesseswhowillown,maintainandservicethevehicles,topurchaseTeslavehiclesandplacethemontheTeslaNetwork.OurvisionfortheTeslaNetworkisthehybridowned/contributedmodelwedescribeabove.

ThiscreatestwodifferentpathsontheTeslaNetwork,eachwithadifferentlooking"P&L”.

●ForTeslaownedvehicles,Teslawouldgetalltherevenueassociatedwiththeride,orwhatTNC’scall“grossbookings”.Butthentheywouldincurtheassociatedcostssuchas,depreciation,insurance,maintenance,parking/tolls,cleaning,charging,teleoperators,etc.

●Forpersonal/fleetownedcontributedvehicles,Teslawouldgettherevenuefromsellingthevehicle,amonthly/annualfeeforaccesstoFSD,andthena“take-rate”ontheride.WewouldonlyconsidertherevenuedirectlyrelatedtotheTeslaNetworktobethe“take-rate”(thevehicleandFSDrevenuewouldflowtoautomotive).Sothissideofthebusinessmodelislikelylowerrevenue/ride,buthighermargin.

Infollowingsections,welayoutaplausiblecaseforhowweseetheTeslaNetworkdevelopingoverthenext15years.Wecaveatthattherearealotofassumptionsneededtobemadewhich,whencombinedwithanelongatedperiodoftimeweareevaluating,canleadtoagreatvariabilityofoutcomes.NOTE:Wedetailourbasecaseassumptionsforrevenueandcosts.Again,westressthatthisiswhataplausiblescenariocouldlookliketous.Ifyou'dliketoflextheseassumptions,youcanrequestourmodeltodoso.

Tesla,Inc.23June2025ab7

Tesla,Inc.UBSResearch

TeslaNetworkRevenueDrivers

FleetSize

Forthisexercise,weestimatethatTesla’sfleetofvehiclesintheirrobotaxiservicecouldgrowto2.3mmvehiclesby2040.Withinthat,webelieveinitiallyallvehicleswillbeTeslaowned.Overtime,webelievefleetoperators(andpersonallyownedTesla’s)canbeaddedtothefleet.Inourmodel,weforecastthepercentofnewvehiclesaddedtotherobotaxifleetownedbyTeslatotrenddownto~30%by2040,whichbringsdowntheamountofTeslaownedvehiclesinthefleet~40%by2040.Notewebelievetheremaybe~2mmUber/LyftdriversintheUStoday.Wewouldexpectthisnumbertogrowasridesharing"takesshare"andwemustalsoconsiderothertaxiservices.Butimplicitly,thisvisionofthefutureassumesthatsuchaservice,ifsuccessful,couldbegintoeatintopersonalvehicleownership,particularlyinurbanareas.

Figure4:By2040,weestimateTeslaNetworkvehiclescouldgrowto~2.3mmrobo-taxisintheUS

AverageTSLARobotaxiFleetSize

FLeetSize(mm)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2.3

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.1

20272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Source:UBSe

Figure5:Overtime,weexpectconsumerownedvehiclestomakeupthemajorityofthefleet

Teslaowned

FleetMix

Contributedfleet

100%

10%

17%

90%

80%

70%

23%29%

36%39%43%45%

48%50%53%

56%58%59%

60%

50%

83%

90%

77%71%

40%

64%61%57%55%52%50%

30%

47%44%42%41%

20%

10%

0%

20272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Source:UBSe

Again,whatisuniqueaboutTeslaistheyaretheonlymajorplayerthatisproducingtheirownvehicles(andabletosellthemtoconsumers)thatmayalsobeabletoofferarobotaxisolution.Thisallowsthemtoserveamarketwiththebaselayerofrobotaxisandthensupplementhigherlevelsofdemandwiththefleet/personallyownedTeslarobotaxisbyallowingthem(orincentivizingthem)tojointheTeslanetworktomatchsupplytodemand.ThislimitsTesla’sdirectexposuretoperiodsoflowerutilization.OtherTNCswouldhavetorelyonabaselayerofAVs,supplementedbyhumandriverstomeetvariabledemand.Butthiscouldcreatetensionforhumandrivers.GivenweexpectTeslavehiclestobeexclusivetotheTeslaNetwork,thiswouldalsolimittheabilityofotherTNCstogo"allAV",atleastuntilthereareadditional3rdpartyAVsthatindividuals/companiescancontributetothefleetthusallowingthoseTNCstomimicabase"owned"AV,variable"contributedAV"model.

Milespercarandutilization

Weassumeeachrobotaxidrivesfor8hours/dayatanaveragespeedof25miles/hour.Thisequatesto200miles/day/vehicle.Weassumethat(atthetotalTeslaNetworklevel),utilizationstartsoutat50%,growingto70%by2040(therewillalwaysbesome“deadhead”milesdriven(milesdrivenbythevehiclewithoutapassenger,ornonrevenue-generating).Weassumethatthevehiclesareoperable350daysoutoftheyear(~2weeksofmaintenance/downtime).Thistranslatestoanaveragevehicledriving~35krevenuegeneratingmilesperyear(initially)to~49krevenuegeneratingmilesperyearby

2040.Note:thetotalnumberofmilesbeingdrivenannuallyis~70k.

AttheTeslaNetworklevel,theexerciseshows~164bnpassengermilesdrivenonthenetworkby2040.

Tesla,Inc.23June2025ab8

Figure6:Overtime,weseetheconsumerownedfleetoutweighingtheTeslaownedfleetinmilesdriven

AnnualPassengerMilesDriven(bn)TeslaOwnedContributedfleet

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

20272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Source:UBSe

Figure7:Notallmileagewillbeutilizedtransportingpassengersastherewillalwaysbe"dead-head"miles.However,wemodelutilizationtoimproveovertime

%Utilization

80%

70%

70%

60%

65%65%

60%60%60%

55%55%55%55%50%50%50%50%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

20272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Source:UBSe

TeslaNetworkrevenuepermile

Weassumethattherevenue(orcosttotheconsumer)willstartoutat$3/mile.Fornow,wekeepthatflatthroughouttheforecast.Thepricepermilecoulddecreaseascostscomedownandifrobotaxiserviceshitacertainlevelofscaleorifthereisadditionalcompetition.Thecostcouldincreaseifcompetitiondoesn'tdevelopand/orifconsumersarewillingtopayaforapremiumservice/experience.

●FortheTeslaownedvehicles,this$/mileratetimestheTeslaownedpassengermilesistheirrevenue.By2040,thiswouldsuggest~$143bningrossbookingswhichwouldalsobethestraightTeslarevenue.

●Fornon-Teslaownedbutcontributedvehicles,thepassengermilestimesthatratewouldsuggestgrossbookingsof$202bnby2040(so~$345bnintotalTeslaNetworkgrossbookings).However,weassumea30%takewhichbringsTeslaNetworkrevenuefromthesevehiclesto~$61bnin2040.

●TotalTeslaNetworkrevenuein2040is$203bn.

Figure8:Weforecastfleetgrossbookingstoreachnearly~$350bnin2040...

AnnualGrossBookings(bn)#TeslaOwnedaContributedfleet

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

20272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Source:UBSe

Figure9:...whichwouldtranslateto~$200bnin2040revenue,acrossbothTeslaownedandcontributedvehicles

AnnualRevenue(bn)TeslaOwnedContributedfleet

250

200

150

100

50

0

2