Global

Critical

MineralsOutlook

2025The

IEA

examines

the

full

spectrum

of

energyissuesincludingoil,

gas

and

coal

supply

anddemand,

renewable

energytechnologies,electricity

markets,

energy

efficiency,

access

toenergy,

demandside

management

and

muchmore.

Through

its

work,

the

IEA

advocatespolicies

that

will

enhance

the

reliability,affordability

and

sustainability

of

energy

in

its

32Member

countries,

13

Association

countries

andbeyond.This

publication

and

any

map

included

herein

arewithout

prejudice

to

thestatus

of

or

sovereigntyover

any

territory,

to

the

delimitation

ofinternational

frontiers

and

boundaries

and

to

thename

of

anyterritory,

city

or

area.Source:

IEA.International

EnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEA

Member

countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech

RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew

ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak

RepublicINTERNATIONAL

ENERGY

AGENCYSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic

of

TürkiyeUnited

KingdomUnited

StatesThe

European

Commissionalso

participates

in

the

workof

theIEAIEA

Associationcountries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth

AfricaThailandUkraineRevised

version,

June

2025

Information

notice

found

at:

/correctionsGlobal

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025PAGE

|

3AbstractAbstractCritical

minerals,

which

are

essential

for

a

range

of

energytechnologies

and

for

the

broader

economy,

have

become

a

majorfocus

in

global

policy

and

trade

discussions.

Price

volatility,

supplychain

bottlenecks

and

geopolitical

concerns

make

the

regularmonitoring

of

their

supply

and

demand

extremely

vital.The

Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025

includes

a

detailedassessment

of

the

latest

market

and

investment

trends,

along

withtheir

implications

for

critical

minerals

security.

Asyear’s

Outlook,it

provides

a

snapshot

of

recentin

last

industrydevelopments

from

2024

and

early

2025

and

offers

medium-

andlong-term

projections

for

the

supply

and

demand

of

key

energyminerals,

taking

into

account

the

latest

policy

and

technologydevelopments.The

2025

Outlook

also

explores

key

techno-economic

issues

suchas

policy

mechanismsto

support

diversification;

mineral

supplychains

for

emerging

battery

technologies;

recent

innovations

inmining,

refining

and

recycling;

and

a

broader

view

on

strategicminerals

for

applications

beyond

the

energy

sector.

As

a

newchapter,

the

report

also

includes

a

comprehensive

review

of

mineralmarkets

and

policy

developments

in

different

regions.

The

reportwillbe

accompanied

byan

updatedversion

of

our

Critical

Minerals

Data

Explorer,

an

interactive

online

tool

that

allows

users

to

explore

thelatest

IEA

projections.IEA.

CC

BY

4.0.Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025Page

|

4Table

of

contentsTable

of

contentsExecutive

summary

5Introduction111. Market

review

of

2024

16Mineral

demand,

production

and

price

trends

17

Downstream

market

trends

41Investment

trends

60Sustainability

performance

tracking

72Outlook

for

key

minerals83Outlook

overview

84Outlook

for

copper

101Outlook

for

lithium

113Outlook

for

nickel

126Outlook

for

cobalt

139Outlook

for

graphite

150Outlook

for

rare

earth

elements

161Brief

review

of

other

materials

179Topical

deepdives192Policy

mechanisms

for

diversified

mineralsupplies

193Beyond

NMC

batteries:

Supply

chain

issues

for

emerging

battery

technologies

207Supply-side

technology

innovation

(mining,

refining,

recycling)

topromote

diversification

227Broader

view

onenergy-related

strategic

minerals:

What

risks

to

anticipate?

2434. Regional

snapshot

258Europe

259North

America

263Central

and

South

America

267

China

270Asia

(excluding

China)

273Australia

277Africa

280Middle

East

283Annex

286Key

projection

results

292IEA.

CC

BY

4.0.Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025Executive

summaryExecutive

summaryIEA.

CC

BY

4.0.Page

|

5Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025Page

|

6Executive

summaryExecutive

summaryDemand

for

key

energy

minerals

continued

to

grow

strongly

in2024.

Lithium

demand

rose

by

nearly

30%,

significantly

exceedingthe

10%

annual

growth

rate

seen

in

the

2010s.

Demand

for

nickel,cobalt,

graphite

and

rare

earths

increased

by

6-8%

in

2024.

Thisgrowth

was

largely

driven

by

energy

applications

such

as

electricvehicles,

battery

storage,

renewables

and

grid

networks.In

the

caseof

copper,

the

rapid

expansion

of

grid

investments

in

China

has

beenthe

single

largest

contributor

to

demand

growth

over

the

past

twoyears.

For

battery

metals

such

as

lithium,

nickel,

cobalt

and

graphite,the

energy

sector

accounted

for

85%

of

total

demand

growth

over

thesameperiod.Despite

this

rapid

demand

growth,

major

supply

increases

–

ledby

China,

Indonesia

and

the

Democratic

Republic

of

the

Congo–

exerted

downward

pressure

on

prices,

especially

for

batterymetals.

The

swift

increase

in

battery

metal

production

highlighted

thesector’s

ability

to

scale

up

new

supply

more

quickly

than

for

traditionalmetals

like

copper

and

zinc.

Since

2020,

supply

growth

for

batterymetals

has

been

twice

the

rate

seen

in

the

late

2010s.

As

a

result,following

the

sharp

price

surges

of

2021

and

2022,

prices

for

keyenergy

minerals

have

continued

to

decline,

returning

to

pre-pandemiclevels.

Lithium

prices,

which

had

surged

eightfold

during

2021-22,

fellby

over

80%

since

2023.

Graphite,

cobalt

and

nickel

prices

alsodropped

by

10

to

20%

in

2024.Despite

strong

expectations

for

future

demand

growth,investment

decisions

today

face

significant

market

andeconomic

uncertainties.

Investment

momentum

in

critical

mineraldevelopment

weakened

in

2024,

with

spending

rising

by

just

5%,down

from

14%

in

2023.

Adjusted

for

cost

inflation,

real

investmentgrowth

was

just

2%.

Exploration

activity

plateaued

in

2024,

markinga

pause

in

the

upward

trend

seen

since

2020.

While

explorationspending

continued

to

rise

for

lithium,

uranium

and

copper,

it

declinednotably

for

nickel,

cobalt

and

zinc.

Start-up

funding

is

also

showingsigns

of

a

slowdown.

Today’s

low

mineral

prices

are

not

providing

thesignal

to

invest,

and

projects

involving

new

entrants

have

beenmostaffected

by

the

uncertainty.Diversification

is

the

watchword

for

energy

security,

but

thecritical

minerals

world

has

moved

in

the

opposite

direction

inrecent

years,

particularly

in

refining

and

processing.

Between2020

and

2024,

growth

in

refined

material

production

was

heavilyconcentrated

among

the

leading

suppliers.

As

a

result,

thegeographic

concentration

of

refining

has

increased

across

nearly

allcritical

minerals,

particularly

for

nickel

and

cobalt.

The

averagemarket

share

of

the

top

three

refining

nations

ofkey

energy

mineralsrose

from

around

82%

in

2020

to

86%

in

2024

as

some

90%

of

supplygrowth

came

from

the

top

single

supplier

alone:

Indonesia

for

nickeland

China

for

cobalt,

graphite

and

rare

earths.IEA.

CC

BY

4.0.Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025Page

|7Executive

summaryOur

detailed

analysis

of

announced

projects

suggests

thatprogress

towards

more

diversified

refining

supply

chains

issetto

be

slow.

Looking

ahead

to

2035,

the

average

share

of

the

topthree

refined

material

suppliers

is

projected

to

decline

only

marginallyto

82%,

effectively

returning

to

the

concentration

levels

seen

in

2020.China’s

stronghold

extends

beyond

refining;

two-thirds

of

globalbattery

recycling

capacity

growth

since

2020

has

been

in

China.Mining

activity

shows

a

similar

trend,

though

it

remainssomewhat

less

concentrated

than

refining.

Most

recent

growthinmining

output

stemmed

from

established

producers

such

as

theDemocratic

Republic

of

the

Congo

(DRC)

for

cobalt,

Indonesia

fornickel,

and

China

for

graphite

and

rare

earths.

As

a

result,

theaverage

market

share

of

the

top

three

mining

countries

for

key

energyminerals

rose

from

73%

in

2020

to

77%

in

2024.

Lithium

was

anotable

exception,

with

a

major

portion

of

supply

growth

coming

fromemerging

producers

like

Argentina

and

Zimbabwe.

Looking

ahead,some

diversification

is

coming

into

view

for

the

mining

of

lithium,graphite

and

rare

earths.

However,

geographical

concentration

isexpected

to

intensify

for

copper,

nickel

and

cobalt.

Overall,

the

shareof

the

top

three

producers

is

projected

to

decline

slightly

to

the

levelsseen

in

2020,

similar

to

trends

observed

in

refining.Projected

supply-demand

balances

through

to

2035

areimproving

compared

with

a

few

years

ago,

but

major

concernsremain,

especially

for

copper.

The

growing

number

of

mining

andrefining

project

announcements

promises

a

notable

increase

in

futureproduction

volumes.

For

nickel,

cobalt,

graphite

and

rare

earths,expected

supplies

are

catching

up

with

projected

demand

growthunder

today’s

policy

settings,

if

planned

projects

proceed

onschedule.

However,

copper

and

lithium

are

major

exceptions.

Despitestrong

copper

demand

from

electrification,

the

current

mine

projectpipeline

points

to

a

potential

30%

supply

shortfall

by

2035

due

todeclining

ore

grades,

rising

capital

costs,

limited

resource

discoveriesand

long

lead

times.

For

lithium,

near-term

markets

appear

well-supplied,

but

rapidly

growing

demand

is

expected

to

push

the

marketinto

deficit

by

the

2030s;however,

the

prospectsfordeveloping

newlithium

projects

are

much

more

favourable

than

for

copper.Today’s

markets

may

appear

well-supplied,

but

exportrestrictions

and

risks

to

security

of

supply

are

proliferating.Amid

rising

supply

concentration,

an

expanding

number

of

exportcontrol

measures

on

critical

minerals

have

been

introduced,particularly

since

2023.

In

December

2024,

China

restricted

theexport

of

gallium,

germanium

and

antimony,

key

minerals

forsemiconductor

production,

to

the

United

States.

This

was

followed

byfurther

announcements

in

early

2025,

including

restrictions

on

tungsten,

tellurium,

bismuth,

indium

and

molybdenum

and

on

seven

heavy

rare

earth

elements.

In

February

2025,

the

DRC

announced

afour-month

suspension

of

cobalt

exports

to

curb

falling

prices.Currently,

more

than

half

of

a

broader

group

of

energy-relatedminerals

are

subject

to

some

form

of

export

controls.

Theserestrictions

are

not

only

increasing

in

number

but

also

expanding

inIEA.

CC

BY

4.0.Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025Page

|8Executive

summaryscope

to

cover

not

just

raw

and

refined

materials

but

also

processingtechnologies,

such

as

those

for

lithium

and

rare

earth

refining.High

market

concentration

increases

vulnerability

to

supplyshocks,

particularly

if,

for

any

reason,

supply

from

the

largestproducing

country

isdisrupted.

When

the

largest

supplier

and

itsdemand

is

excluded,

the

overall

market

balances

become

starklydifferent.

For

battery

metals

and

rare

earths,

supplies

outside

theleading

producer

meet

on

average

only

half

of

the

remaining

demandin

2035.

This

means

that,

even

in

a

well-supplied

market,

criticalmineral

supply

chains

can

be

highly

vulnerable

to

supply

shocks,

bethey

from

extreme

weather,

a

technical

failure

or

trade

disruptions.The

impact

of

a

critical

minerals

supply

shock

can

be

far-reaching,

bringing

higher

prices

for

consumers

and

reducingindustrial

competitiveness.

A

sustained

supply

shock

for

batterymetals

could

increase

global

average

battery

pack

prices

by

as

muchas

40-50%.There

is

already

a

major

battery

manufacturing

cost

gapacross

regions.

Prolonged

supply

disruptions

could

widen

costdisadvantages

for

other

battery

manufacturers

vis-à-vis

China,potentially

hindering

efforts

to

diversify

manufacturing

supply

chains.Extending

ouranalysisto

abroaderrangeof

20energy-related,multisectoral

minerals

highlights

additional

vulnerabilities.These

minerals

play

a

vital

role

across

sectors

such

as

high-tech,aerospace

and

advanced

manufacturing.

While

the

market

sizes

forthese

minerals

are

relatively

small,

supply

disruptions

can

haveoutsized

economic

impacts.Major

risk

areas

for

this

broader

group

of

strategic

mineralsinclude

high

supply

chain

concentration,

price

volatility

and

by-product

dependency.

China

is

the

dominant

refiner

for

19

of

the

20minerals

analysed,

holding

an

average

market

share

of

around

70%.Three-quarters

of

these

minerals

have

shown

greater

price

volatilitythan

oil,

and

half

have

been

more

volatile

than

natural

gas.

Aroundhalf

are

produced

as

by-products,

limiting

the

flexibility

of

supply

torespond

to

market

signals.

Substitution

options

are

also

limited;

manyminerals,

such

as

tantalum,

titanium

and

vanadium,

have

fewviablealternatives

without

major

cost

or

performance

trade-offs.Policy

makers

have

woken

up

to

these

energy

securitychallenges

with

a

wave

of

new

policy

initiatives.

Governmentsaround

the

world

are

intensifying

efforts

to

secure

critical

mineralsupplies

through

publicfunding,

strategic

partnerships

and

domesticpolicy

reforms.

The

United

States

issued

a

series

of

executive

orders

to

expedite

permitting

and

increase

investments

in

domestic

projects.The

European

Commission

designated

47

strategic

projects

underthe

EU

Critical

Raw

Materials

Act

to

fast-track

development

andenhance

financing

access.

The

International

Energy

Agency

haslaunched

a

new

Critical

Minerals

Security

Programme

to

address

keyvulnerabilities.

Australia,

Canada

and

other

nations

have

launchedmajor

funding

programmes.

Meanwhile,

resource-rich

countries

areimplementing

policies

to

retain

greater

economic

value

from

theirmineral

resources.IEA.

CC

BY

4.0.Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025Page

|9Executive

summaryDiversificationwill

not

materialisethrough

market

forcesalone;well-designed

policy

support

and

partnerships

are

essential.Capital

costs

for

projects

in

diversified

regions

are

typically

around50%

higher

than

for

incumbent

producers.

These

higher

costs,combined

with

price

volatility

and

economic

uncertainty,

are

makingit

difficult

to

build

up

diversified

supply.

Public

financing

support

canhelp

to

bring

forward

new

projects,

but

rule-based

marketmechanisms

are

also

required

to

support

their

operation.

Welldesigned

price

stabilisation

schemes,

such

as

contract-for-differences

and

cap-and-floor

models,

can

help

smooth

out

pricevolatility

and

mobilise

private

investment

without

imposing

excessivefiscal

burdens.

Volume

guarantee

mechanisms

can

also

supportinvestment

by

providing

greater

demand

certainty

for

new

projects.Standards-based

market

access

policies

are

another

option,enabling

only

minerals

that

meet

certain

sustainability

or

productioncriteria

to

qualify

for

accessing

specific

market

segments,

such

asstrategic

reserves

or

public

procurement

channels.

For

instance,targeted

incentives

for

cleaner

nickel

production

could

unlocksizeable

supply

volumes

outside

today’s

dominant

producers

andreduce

global

market

concentration

by

7%

by

2035.Global

collaboration

remains

essential

to

diversifying

supplysources,

linking

resource-rich

countrieswith

those

possessingrefining

capabilities

and

downstream

consumers.

Majoropportunities

existfor

cross-border

partnerships

and

collaboration

inhighly

concentrated

supply

chains.

For

example,

African

nations

suchas

Madagascar,

Mozambique

and

Tanzania

hold

around

a

quarter

ofglobal

graphite

resources,

while

Germany,

Japan,

Korea

and

theUnited

States

have

the

capacity

and

plans

to

produce

graphite

anodematerials.

Similarly,

ample

rare

earth

resources

exist

in

Australia,Brazil,

Viet

Nam

and

others,

while

Europe,

Malaysia

and

the

UnitedStates

are

investing

in

separation

facilities.

Permanent

magnetmanufacturing

capacities

are

being

developed

in

Europe,

Japan,Korea

and

the

United

States.

Mapping

out

opportunities

forconnections

across

the

whole

supply

chain,

rather

than

focusingsolely

on

a

single

part

of

the

value

chain,

can

help

realise

the

potentialof

partnerships

in

diversifying

supply

sources.

This

needs

to

befollowed

by

cooperative

frameworks

such

as

co-investment,

offtakeagreements,

and

shared

de-risking

mechanisms.New

technologies

in

mining,

refining

and

recycling

hold

majorpotential

to

scale

up

diversified

supplies.

A

range

of

emerginginnovations

have

the

potential

to

transform

mineral

production.

Inmining,

these

include

AI-based

exploration,

direct

lithium

extraction,the

processing

of

ionic

adsorption

clays,

and

the

re-mining

of

tailingsand

mine

waste.

In

refining

and

recycling,

advances

such

as

novelsynthetic

graphite

production,

sulphide

ore

leaching

and

advancedsorting

technologies

could

represent

promising

breakthroughs.

Forexample,

innovations

such

as

AI-based

geological

exploration

couldreduce

drilling

costs

by

up

to

60%

and

as

much

as

quadruplediscovery

success

rates.

Technologies

that

enable

rare

earthextraction

from

ionic

adsorption

clay

deposits

could

significantlyreduce

capital

intensity

and

waste

generation,

opening

up

newproduction

opportunities

in

countries

such

as

Australia,

Brazil

andIEA.

CC

BY

4.0.Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025PAGE

|

10Executive

summaryUganda.

International

collaborations

can

also

play

a

vital

role

inaddressing

technologybottlenecks

in

building

diversified

supplies.Emerging

battery

technologies

are

challenging

the

incumbentnickel-based

lithium-ion

batteries,

and

these

are

not

immunetohigh

supply

concentration

and

volume

risks.

Lithium

ironphosphate

(LFP)

batteries

have

surged

in

recent

years,

coveringnearly

half

of

the

electric

car

market,

up

from

less

than

10%

in

2020,and

emerging

technologies

like

sodium-ion

and

manganese-richlithium-ion

batteries

are

also

gaining

traction.

However,

the

supplychains

for

these

technologies

are

significantly

more

concentratedthan

those

for

nickel-based

batteries.

China

produces

75%

of

theworld’s

purified

phosphoric

acid,

essential

for

LFP

batteries,

and95%

of

high-purity

manganese

sulphate,

a

key

input

formanganese-rich

and

sodium-ion

battery

chemistries.

These

twomaterials

are

emerging

as

key

chokepoints,

with

current

projectpipelines

indicating

the

potential

for

major

supply

gaps.

Plannedprojects

for

purified

phosphoric

acid

are

insufficient

to

meetprojected

demand

from

around

2030.

High

purity

manganesesulphate

supplies

from

announced

projects

meet

only

55%

ofexpected

2035

demand

under

today’s

policy

settings.

Sodium-ionbatteries

offer

some

upstream

diversification

potential,

with

theUnited

States

and

Europe

playing

active

roles

in

soda

ash,

causticsoda

and

biomass

supplies.

Yet

the

downstream

supply

chain

–

forcells,

cathodes

and

hard

carbon

anodes

–

remains

dominated

byChina.

Giventhegrowing

competitiveness

andmarket

shareof

LFPand

other

emerging

technologies,

it

is

becoming

increasinglyimportant

for

policy

makers

to

pay

close

attention

to

supply

chainvulnerabilities

in

these

new

technologies.Sustainability

reporting

continues

to

gain

traction

across

majorproducers.

Around

85%

of

the

25

major

mining

companies

disclosedperformance

across

10

key

environmental

and

social

indicators

in2023,

rising

from

60%

in

2020.

While

environmental

indicators

suchas

emissions,

water

usage

and

waste

have

started

to

improve

afterseveral

years

of

stagnation,

advances

in

social

metrics,

such

asworker

safety,

appear

to

be

slowing.

Water

and

climate

risks

presenta

major

issue;

in

2024,

7%

of

global

copper

supply

was

at

risk

ofdisruption

due

to

floods

or

droughts,

a

figure

that

is

set

to

rise

in

thefuture.

Traceability

systems

can

help

meet

various

policy

goals,including

contributing

to

the

development

of

sustainable,

responsibleand

secure

mineral

supplychains.In

a

world

of

high

geopolitical

tensions,

critical

minerals

haveemergedas

afrontline

issue

insafeguardingglobalenergy

andeconomic

security.

The

wave

of

recent

export

restrictions

highlightsthe

strategic

urgency

of

strengthening

the

resilience

and

diversity

ofcritical

mineral

supplies

as

the

world

moves

towards

a

moreelectrified,

renewables-rich

energy

system.

Through

its

CriticalMinerals

Security

Programme,

the

IEA

is

scaling

up

efforts

to

bolstermineral

security

by

building

systems

to

enhance

resilience

againstpotential

disruptions,

supporting

the

acceleration

of

projectdevelopment

in

diverse

regions,

and

deepening

market

monitoringcapabilities.IEA.

CC

BY

4.0.Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025IntroductionIntroductionIEA.

CC

BY

4.0.PAGE

|

11Global

Critical

Minerals

Outlook

2025PAGE

|

12IntroductionIntroductionCritical

minerals

markets

experienced

another

turbulent

year

in

2024.While

some

base

metal

prices

saw

a

slight

increase,

many

continuedto

decline

as

supply

growth

outpaced

demand.

Battery

metal

pricesremained

particularly

subdued,

though

the

pace

of

decline

was

lesssevere

than

in2023.Security

of

supply

is

far

from

guaranteed

even

in

today’s

relativelywell-supplied

markets.

Growing

geopolitical

tensions,

marked

by

aseries

of

export

controls

on

key

materials

and

technologies,

haveheightened

supply

risks:

disruptions

and

restrictions

to

flows

of

criticalminerals

are

not

just

a

theoretical

concern.

However,

the

low-priceenvironment

presents

significant

challenges

to

supply

diversificationefforts,

disproportionately

affecting

prospective

projects

locatedoutside

the

main

incumbent

producers.

These

developmentsunderscore

th