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文檔簡介
2026INVESTMENTOUTLOOK
Riding
Tailwinds
Aglobalinterplayofkeythemesincludeslowerrates,earningsgrowth,andAIhopes.
2
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
Mac「oOve「view
GiulioMartini—
Partner,DirectorofStrategicAssetAllocation
I.
KeyPoints
Globalfinancialmarketshavesurgedwitheasierfinancialconditionsandbroad-basedearningsgrowth,withoptimismabouttheadoptionofartificialintelligence(AI)adominanttheme.
TheresilienceofChinaandothermajoroverseaseconomieshas
beencriticalforsustainingglobalgrowth,andinflationhascontinueddeceleratinginmostcountries.
RiskstowatchincludeinvestorresponsestorisingU.S.debtlevels,
geopoliticalconditions,anddevelopmentsthatcouldpotentiallyderailexpectationsforthecontinuedgrowthofAI.
3
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
I.MacroOverview
As2026begins,financialconditionshaveeasedaroundtheworld,ledbycentral
banksloweringinterestratesinvirtuallyeverycountry.Thathastriggered,alongwithotherfactors,strongstockmarketsglobally,tightenedcreditspreads,and
ampleavailabilityofcredit.
Oneencouraging
signforinvestors
hasbeenthatcentralbankshavenotbeenoverlyrigidabout
hittingtheirinflationtargetsintheveryshortrun.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
4
Figure1.
GlobalFinancialConditionsHaveEased
U.S.FinancialConditionsIndex(top)andGlobalFinancialStressIndex(bottom),November10,2024–November10,2025
Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachs,andBofAMerrillLynch.DataasofNovember10,2025.Forillustrativepurposesonlyanddoesnot
representanyspecificportfoliomanagedbyLordAbbettoranyparticularinvestment.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
5
Oneencouragingsignforinvestorshasbeenthatcentralbankshavenotbeenoverlyrigidabouthittingtheir
inflationtargetsintheveryshortrun.
Forexample,whiletheU.S.Federal
Reserve’s(Fed)inflationtargetis2%,inflationhasheldabovethatlevel.
Nevertheless,theFedhasdecidedthatinflationisheadinglowerinthemediumtermandcloseenoughtoitstargetto
allowittoimplementratecutsaimedatsupportingrealeconomicactivityand
maximumemployment,evenasinflationremainsslightlyabovetarget.Financialmarketshavetakenapositiveviewof
thispolicyflexibility,andmedium-terminflationexpectationshaveremained
well-anchored,consistentwiththe
2%target.
BroadEarningsGrowthandAIHopesFuelMultipleExpansion
Strongearningsgrowth,ledby
thetechnologysector(butnotjust
concentratedintech),hasalsosupportedfinancialmarkets.Thebroadeningof
earningsgrowthbeyondtechhasalsobeenmetwithexpandingmultiples,
drivenmostlybytheoutlookforAI.
AlthoughitremainsuncertainhowfarAIdevelopmentswilltransformbusinesses,thereisstillplentyofroomforoptimism.
AIshowspromisenotjustinmaking
scientificresearchanddrugdiscovery
processesmoreeffective,butalsoasadevelopinggeneral-purposetechnologythatcanbeappliedacrossbusinesses
andindustriestoboostefficiency.Theexpansionofequityvaluationmultipleshasbeen,inpart,anexpressionof
thatoptimism.
KeyThemesExtendtoOverseasMarkets
Multipleexpansion,drivenbylower
interestrates,thepromiseofAI,andrelativelylowinflation,hasalsobeenastrongtailwindforfinancialmarketsglobally.Thisstrengthisevident
notonlyintheUnitedStates,where
stockshaverisenabout17%thisyearthroughOctober31—basedonthe
performanceoftheS&P500?Index—butalsointernationally.TheMSCIAllCountryWorldIndex(ACWI)ex-U.S.
hasrisenabout28%inthesameperiod,reflectingbothaweakerU.S.dollar
androbustperformancebyoverseas
companies.Thismarksanotableshift
fromprioryears,whennon-U.S.equities,despiteappearingattractivelyvalued,
consistentlyunderperformedU.S.stocks.Incontrast,manyinternationalmarkets,
includingJapan,theEurozone,the
UnitedKingdom,andseveralemergingeconomies,havepostedhigherreturnsin2025.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
6
GlobalGrowthProspectsDrivenbyMajorEconomies
AnothermajorthemehasbeenresilienceinChina.China’stransitionfroma
housing-ledeconomytoanexport-drivenmodelhasfacedchallenges.Therisks
toitsexportsectorcameintheform
oftariffpolicyintheUnitedStates,as
wellasgrowinguneaseinindustries
globallywhereChinahasexpanded
rapidly,particularlyinmotorvehicles,
especiallyelectricvehicles(EVs).Despitetheseheadwinds,industrialactivityin
Chinahasbeenresilient,boostinghighvalue-addedproductionathomeand
leveragingitstraderelationshipswith
countriessuchasVietnamandThailandtomaintainoverseasmarketaccess.
WhathappensdomesticallyintheUnitedStatesandChinahasasignificantimpactontheglobaleconomyduetotheirsize.China’scontinuedstrongperformance
anditsavoidanceofpoliticaland
financialcriseshaveunderscoredits
resilience,whichhasbeenamajorfactorshapingtheglobaleconomy.
Europehasseenstrongergrowth
amidchallengesposedbytheongoingwarinUkraine,highenergycosts,
anduncertaintyaboutfuturesupply,
andrisingmilitaryspending.Indeed,
spendingonredevelopmentand
expansionofmembernations’defenseandsecurityinfrastructure,anda
relaxationofbudgetaryrulesinmajor
economiesintheregion,haveactedasfiscalstimulus,liftingEurozonegrowthabovethesluggish1%previouslyseen.
Meanwhile,Japanhasmaintainedpro-
growthpoliciesthatthenewgovernmentappearstobecommittedto.
ASupportiveEraforCryptocurrency,Stablecoins,andTokenization
TheUnitedStateshastakenastrong
stanceinsupportingthedevelopmentofcryptocurrency,stablecoins,
andtokenization,anapproachthat
contrastswiththecautionofthe
previousadministrationandglobal
centralbanks.Thisbackinghasfueledmomentumintheindustry,driving
ralliesindigitalcurrenciesandsharesofrelatedbusinessesandaccelerating
theadoptionofnewpaymentsystems.
Whiletheseinnovationscarrybothrisksandbenefits,theynowappearpoisedtopotentiallybecomeapermanentpartofthefinanciallandscape.Giventhatglobalpaymentsystemsunderpintheentire
financialsystem,anyshift,whetherdisruptiveorenhancing,couldhavefar-reachingimplications.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
7
RiskstoWatchin2026
GrowingDeficits
Anunresolvedchallengeforglobal
marketsistherapidgrowthofpublic-
sectordebtinrelationtoeconomic
output,particularlyintheUnitedStates.U.S.debtappearstobeonapathto
riseindefinitelyasashareofGDP,sooncrossingthe100%threshold.
Whiletheexactnumbermattersless
thantheprospectofitscontinuedrise,investorsmayeventuallydemandmorecompensationforbearingthisrisk.
InflationandTariffs
Anunresolvedissueremainsaround
theinflationaryimpactofU.S.tariffs.If
tariffsraisethebaselinelevelofinflation,itcouldcomplicatetheFed’sability
tocutratesbeforereachingitstarget,
highlightingongoingtensionbetween
fiscalandmonetarypolicy.Marketsare
currentlypricedfortheFedtolowerratesanother100basispointsin2026,and
stubborninflationcouldforceare-assessment.
TheUkraineWar
Anothersignificantriskstemsfrom
theongoingconflictinUkraine,which
hascontinuedtoescalateratherthan
diminish.Thelongertheconflictdrags
on,themorepressingthethreattoglobalfoodsuppliesandthemorepressing
thenecessityofsubstitutinglow-pricedRussianoilandnaturalgaswithmore
expensivealternatives.
8
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
BondMa「ket
StevenRocco,CFA?
Partner&Co-HeadofTaxableFixedIncome
RobertLee
Partner&Co-HeadofTaxableFixedIncome
II.
KeyPoints
Despitetariffconcernsandalate-yeargovernmentshutdown,gross
domesticproduct(GDP)growthstayedpositive,inflationhasmoderatedtoward2.8%,andcorporateearningshavebeenstrong.
TheFederalReserve(Fed)resumedratecutsandfiscalmeasures
aresettoprovideincrementalstimulusinearly2026,creatingamoreaccommodativebackdropforriskassets.
Althoughcreditspreadsremaintight,healthycorporatefundamentals
andstronginvestordemandforyieldsupportopportunitiesacrossfixedincomemarkets.
9
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
II.BondMarket
As2025drawstoaclose,theU.S.
economyhasprovenremarkablyresilientinthefaceofsignificantchallenges.
Earlierintheyear,fearsoftariff-drivendisruptiondominatedheadlines,and
aprolongedgovernmentshutdowninthefourthquarteraddeduncertainty.
Yet,realGDPgrowthremainedpositive,supportedbycorporateadaptabilityandprudentpolicyadjustments.Inflation
hasmoderatedtoward2.8%,stillabovetheFed’stargetbuttrendinglower,
andgrowth,whileslowerthanmid-
yearhighs,hasheldsteadyenoughtoavoidrecession.Thisresiliencesets
thestageforaconstructiveinvestmentenvironmentaswelookaheadto2026.
Real[inflation-adjusted]U.S.
GDPgrowth
remainedpositivein2025,supportedbycorporate
adaptabilityandprudentpolicyadjustments.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
10
APositiveBackdropforFixedIncome:Rates,Resilience,andOpportunity
Monetarypolicyhasshiftedmeaningfully.Afteranine-monthpause,theFed
resumedratecutsinSeptemberand
October,reducingratesby50basis
points(bps)intotal.Thesemovesfollowearliercutstotaling100bpsinlate2024.Therationalehasbeenslowerhiring,lowturnover,andrevisionstopriorpayroll
datathatshowednegativeprints.With
anewFedchairexpectedinMay2026,webelievethepolicybiasappears
firmlytowardeasing,reinforcingamoreaccommodativebackdropforriskassets.
Consumerdynamicstellamorenuancedstory.Spendingremainssolidoverall,buttheeconomyisincreasinglyK-shaped.
Higher-incomehouseholdscontinuetodriveconsumption,buoyedbystrong
assetprices,dueinparttorisinghomeprices,near-recordhouseholdwealth,andequitygains.Incontrast,lower-
incomecohortsfacepressurefrom
elevatedpricelevelsandtightercreditconditions,reflectedinrisingsubprimeautodelinquenciesandtrade-down
behavior.Themiddle-incomesegmentwillbecriticalindeterminingwhether
theseheadwindsspillovermore
broadly.Fornow,consumeractivityinaggregateremainshealthy,butpocketsofweaknesswarrantclosemonitoring.
Labormarketshavealsosoftenedbut
havenotcollapsed.Jobcreationhas
slowed,andturnoverislow,signalingadecelerationwithoutwidespreadlayoffs.Yet,immigrationpolicychangeshave
contributedtoreducedlaborsupply,
andwhileunemploymenthastickedupto4.3%,itremainshistoricallylow.Thisevolvingbackdroppointstowhythe
Fedhasresumedcuttingrates,andwhyfurthereasingmaybenecessaryiflabormarketconditionsweakenfurther.
Inflationhasbeentrendingloweras
wemovethroughthefourthquarterof
thisyear.Andwhilerecentdatahave
beenlimited,inflationswapshavebeenindicatinglevelsaround2.5%(seeFigure2).Thissuggestsaquartercharacterizedbyslowinggrowthandslightlylower
inflation,thoughstillabovetheFed’s
target.Meanwhile,fiscalpolicyhasbeenneutraltoslightlystimulative.Legislationpassedearlierin2025providesmodestsupport,andprovisionsarestructuredtodeliverincrementalstimulusinthefirst
quarterof2026.Thiscombinationof
monetarypolicyeasingandthepotentialforpositiveeffectsfromfiscalactivity
supportsapositiveoutlookforgrowth.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
11
Figure2.
InflationSwapsHaveShownModeratingInflationExpectations
U.S.dollarinflationswaprate,November21,2024–November21,2025
Source:Bloomberg.DataasofNovember21,2025.TheUSDzero-couponinflationswapisaderivativeusedtotransferriskfromonepartytoanotherthroughanexchangeofcashflows.Inazero-couponinflationswap,onlyonepaymentismadeatmaturity,whereonepartypaysafixedrateonanotionalfixedamount,whiletheotherpartypaysafloatingratelinkedtoaninflationindex.Forillustrativepurposesonlyanddoes
notrepresentanyspecificportfoliomanagedbyLordAbbettoranyparticularinvestment.
ValuationsandIssuanceTrendsinCreditMarkets
Againstthisbackdrop,creditmarkets
presentacompellingpicture.Credit
spreadsremaintightbyhistorical
standardsacrossinvestment-grade
corporatebonds,highyieldbonds,and
securitizedproducts.Whilespreadshavewidenedslightlyfromrecentlows,they
reflectstrongfundamentals.Corporateearningshavebeensolid,withmid-to-
highsingle-digitrevenuegrowthand
double-digitnetincomegains.Balance
sheetsremainhealthy,andrealestate
markets,bothcommercialandresidential,appeartobestabilizingasTreasury
yieldsandmortgageratesmoderate,
whichcanhelptoimproveaffordabilityandreducerefinancingpressure.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
12
Figure3.
TightCreditSpreadsaReflectionofStrongFundamentals
Source:BloombergandICEDataServices,
LLC.DataasofNovember21,2025.The
option-adjustedspread(OAS)istheyield
spreadthatmustbeaddedtoabenchmark
risk-freeyieldcurve(usuallyU.S.Treasuries)
todiscountabond’scashflowssothatits
presentvalueequalsitsmarketprice,after
adjustingfortheimpactofembeddedoptions.Itmeasuresthedifferencebetweenabond’s
yieldandtherisk-freerate.Highyield=ICEBofAU.S.HighYieldIndex.IGCorporate=ICEBofAU.S.CorporateIndex.CMBS=ICEBofACMBSIndex.ABS=ICEBofAFixed-RateAssetBackedSecuritiesIndex.MBS=ICEBofAU.S.MortgageIndex.ForillustrativepurposesonlyanddoesnotrepresentanyspecificportfoliomanagedbyLordAbbettoranyparticularinvestment.
Supply-and-demanddynamicshave
beenconstructive,withhighyield
issuancetrendingonlymodestlyhigherandremainingrelativelycontainedonthesupplyside,drivenlargelybyrefinancingactivity.Atthesametime,stronginvestordemandforyieldpersists,withpotentialupsideifmergersandacquisitions(M&A)activityaccelerates.Investment-grade
supplyhasbeendrivenbycorporate
spendingoninfrastructureforartificialintelligence(AI)andotherstrategic
initiatives.Onthedemandside,appetiteforyieldremainsstrong,supportedbysolidreturnsandanattractiveincome
environment.Technicalsinhigh-qualityfixedincomeappearbalanced,with
healthysupplyabsorbedbyrobustinstitutionalandretaildemand.
Inprivatecredit,headlineshavefocusedonisolatedstress,particularlyin2021–2022vintagesmarkedbyaggressive
lendingduringzero-interest-rate
conditions.Theseissuesarerealbut
notsystemic,inourview.TheFed’sratecutscaneasedebtserviceburdensforfloating-ratestructures,whichcanhelptomitigateriskforissuers.Although
defaultsmayrisemodestly,highyield
andbroadlysyndicatedloans(BSLs)
shouldgenerallyremainresilient,
supportedbystrongcreditfundamentals.
Oneemergingthemethatcouldimpactissuanceandsectordynamicsisthe
massivebuildoutofAIinfrastructure.
Hyperscalersareinvestinghundreds
ofbillionsofdollarsannuallyindata
centers,powergeneration,andrelatedtechnology.Whiletheseprojectscreateopportunitiesacrossinvestment-
grade,highyield,leveragedloans,and
securitizedmarkets,theyalsocarry
risks.Historyshowsthatlarge-scale
infrastructurecycles,suchasinthe
telecommunicationindustryinthe
1990s—andtheshalerevolutionintheoilandgasindustry—canendinoversupply.Fornow,thebuildoutisintheearly
stages,butvigilanceisessential.Activemanagersmustbeselective,favoring
issuerswithstrongfundamentalsasissuanceaccelerates.Atthesame
time,large,highlyratedtechnology
companiesissuingmulti-tranchedebtatattractiveconcessionspresentattractiveopportunitiesforinvestorsseeking
qualityandyield.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
13
TheRoadAhead:Questions,Challenges,andActiveOpportunities
Lookingahead,severalkeyquestionsmaydefinetheinvestmentlandscape:
WillAI-drivencapitalspendingprove
sustainableorevolveintoabubble?
WillthetensionbetweensolidGDP
growthandasofterlabormarketresolvetowardstrengthorweakness?How
significantwillcreditcracksbecome,
andwilltheyremainidiosyncraticratherthansystemic?Willinflationcontinue
tomoderate,orsurprisetotheupside,
complicatingtheFed’seasingpath?Andhowwillimmigrationtrends,nowsharplyreversed,affectlaborsupply,wages,andgrowthpotential?Theseuncertainties
underscoretheneedforflexibilityandrigorousriskmanagement.
Despitethesepotentialchallenges,theoutlookfor2026remainsconstructive.
Easingmonetarypolicy,fiscalsupport,
andresilientcorporatefundamentals
createafavorablebackdropforcredit-
sensitivesectors.Inthisenvironment,
activemanagementandmulti-sector
strategiesmaybecritical.Sector
performancemayvarywidelywith
macroeconomicconditions,anddynamicallocationacrosscreditmarketsoffers
theopportunitytocapturevaluewhilemitigatingrisk.
14
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
Equities
MatthewDeCicco,CFA?
Partner&DirectorofEquities
III.
KeyPoints
Despitestrongperformance,historicalcontextshowsthecurrentbull
marketremainsaveragecomparedtopastcycles,suggestingvaluationsarefarfrombubbleterritory.
Hyperscalersareontracktofuelrapidrevenuegrowthacrosstechnologyandinfrastructuresectors.Unliketraditionalprojects,artificialintelligence(AI)-relatedinvestmentsaregeneratingrevenuegrowthquickly,creatingapotentialearningstailwind.
Whileconsumersentimenthasreflectedconcern,stableemploymentandfiscalmeasurescouldsupportspendingin2026.Mergers&acquisitions(M&A)andinitialpublicoffering(IPO)activitycouldalsosignalrenewed
confidenceandhealthiermarketbreadth.
15
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
III.Equities
Atmid-year,optimismwasbuildingassecond-quarterearningsrolled
in.Roughly70%ofcompanieshad
exceededestimates,accordingto
FactSet,andmanywereguidinghigherfortheremainderoftheyear.Fast
forwardtotoday,theS&P500?has
delivereddouble-digitreturns,year-
to-datethroughtheendofNovember2025.Yet,despitestrongperformance,questionspersist,mostnotablyaroundwhethercurrentvaluationssignal
abubble.
Comparedtohistory,thecurrentbull
marketisfarfrombubbleterritory.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
16
AreWeinaBubble?
Therecentriseinequitieshasbeendrivenprimarilybyearningsgrowth.
Third-quarterresultsmirroredthe
strengthofthesecondquarter,with
broad-basedgainspushingS&P500
earningsgrowthtoapproximately15%.
Andimportantly,contextmatters.While
thecurrentbullmarkethasdoubledoff
itsOctober2022lows—astrongabsoluteperformance—itremainsaverageby
historicalstandards.Overthepast
century,bullmarketstypicallylastthreeyearsanddeliverabout100%gains.1
Bycomparison,the1980sReaganomicsbullmarketlastedoverfiveyearsand
deliveredexceptionallystrongreturns.
Thedot-comeraextendedbeyondfiveyearswithevengreatergains,andthepost-globalfinancialcrisis(GFC)bull
marketranforsixyears,alsoproducingrobustperformance.Tomatchthose
historicalperiods,today’smarketwouldneedtopushtheS&Ptoward12,000by2028–2029toresemblethoseperiods.
Whilethat’snotaforecast,itunderscoresthatcurrentconditionsarefarfrom
bubbleterritory,comparedtohistory.
TheEcosystemBehindArtificialIntelligence(AI)andtheCapitalSpendingSurge
OneofthemostpowerfulthemesdrivingmarketshigheristheexpansionofAI
andthemassivecapitalexpenditure(CapEx)behindit.Hyperscalers,suchasGoogle,Amazon,Microsoft,Meta,andOracle,wereinitiallyexpected
tospend$250billiononCapExthisyear.2Thatestimateprovedfartoo
conservative.Actualspendingisontracktohit$400billion,a$150billion
increase(seeFigure4).Thissurge
usuallyflowsdirectlyintoearningsfor
companiesbuildingtheinfrastructure—semiconductormanufacturers,heating,
ventilation,andairconditioning(HVAC)
providers,andelectricalcontractorsfor
datacenters.ThatadditionalCapExoftenflowsdirectlyintoearningsgrowthfor
thecompaniesbuildingandequippingdatacenters.
17
Figure4.
AIHyperscalerCapExHasContinuedtoGrowMeaningfully
TotalCapEx-Alphabet,AmazonWebServices,MetaPlatforms,Microsoft,Oracle
Source:GoldmanSachs.DataasofNovember30,2025.Pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatororguaranteeoffutureresults.Datafor2025,2026,and2027reflectconsensusestimates.Thereisnoguaranteeanyforecast,estimate,orprojectionwillberealized.CapExshowniscompanytotal,exceptforAmazon,whichreflectsanestimateforAmazonspend.Hyperscalersarethelargecloudcomputing
companiesthatownandoperatedatacenterswithhorizontallylinkedserversthat,alongwithcoolinganddatastoragecapabilities,enablethemtohouseandoperateAIworkloads.
Unliketraditionalprojectsthattake
yearstopayoff,hyperscalers’AI-
relatedinvestmentsaregenerating
revenuegrowthmorequickly.Demand
forcomputingpower,drivenbytools
likeChatGPT,Copilot,andpartnershipswithfirmssuchasAnthropic,has
continuedtoexceedsupply,andas
userrequestsgrowmorecomplex,datacenterspendinghasaccelerated,fuelingrevenuegrowthforhyperscalersand
theirecosystems.
Beyondtechnology,acrosssectors
fromconsumertofinancials,companiesleveraginggenerativeAIhavebeenabletoboostproductivityandefficiency.
Theresulthasbeenabroad-basedreturnonunprecedentedlevelsofcapitalinvestment.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
18
ConsumerDynamics:AK-ShapedEconomy
WhilecorporateearningsandAI-
drivengrowthdominateheadlines,theconsumerremainsthedriverforroughly70%ofU.S.grossdomesticproduct(GDP),accordingtotheU.S.
BureauofEconomicAnalysis.Recent
surveysreflectmixedsentiment,and
theeconomyincreasinglyresemblesa
K-shapedrecovery.Thatmeanshigh-
endconsumerscontinuetospend,
supportingsectorslikeluxurytravelandpremiumbrands.Low-endconsumers,
however,facesignificantchallenges,
pressuringcompaniesthatcater
exclusivelytothissegment.Consumer-
relatedequitieshavelaggedthisyear,
withbothstaplesanddiscretionary
stocksunderperformingbroaderindexes.Yet,therearereasonsforcautious
optimismheadingintonextyear.
Thelabormarketremainsstable,and
whilejobgrowthisnotexplosive,it
providesasolidfoundationforconsumerspending.Policytailwinds,including
monetaryeasingandfiscalmeasures
suchastaxreliefontipsundertheOneBigBeautifulBillAct(OBBA)passed
earlierin2025,areexpectedtohelp
boostdisposableincome.Additionally,
thelaggedeffectsofpriorratecuts
andtargetedstimulusprogramsshouldbegintoflowthroughtheeconomyin
early2026,furthersupportingconsumerconfidenceanddemand.
Selectivitywillbecritical.Company
performanceincreasinglydepends
onpositioningwithintheconsumer
sectorandtheabilitytoadapttoshiftingdemandpatterns.Forinvestors,this
createsopportunitiesinwell-managedbrandsandsectorspoisedtobenefit
fromcyclicalrecovery.
SignsofGrowingM&AandIPOActivity
Afteryearsofmuteddeal-making,M&A
andIPOactivityisshowingrenewed
strength.M&Avolumesareup40%,year-to-date,whileIPOactivityisontrackto
risemorethan60%(seeFigure5).Infact,perRenaissanceCapital,therewere64
U.S.IPOsraisingacombined$15.3billionin3Q25—thebestquartersince2021.
Whilethesefiguresbenefitfromeasycomparisonstoaweak2024,thetrendsuggestsdealflowhasaccelerated.
LORDABBETT/2026OUTLOOK:RIDINGTHETAILWINDS
19
Figure5.
IPOActivityHasRecentlyBeguntoPickUpAgain
U.S.IPOFilingsandProceeds,byYear(Minimum$50MMarketCap)
Source:RenaissanceCapital.Dataasof
November25,2025.Pastperformanceis
notareliableindicatororguaranteeoffutureresults.DataincludeIPOsanddirectlistings
withamarketcapofatleast$50mm.Excludesclosed-endfunds,unitofferings,andSPACs.
TheresurgenceisdrivenprimarilybystrategicM&A,withlargecompaniesacquiringsmalleroneswithintheir
industries.Thistypeofactivity
stalledneartheendoftheprevious
administrationduetoregulatory
uncertaintyandlengthyapproval
timelines.Today,thosebarriershave
eased,enablingdealssuchasamajor
cybersecurityacquisitionearlierthisyearandincreasedactivityinbiotech,wherelargepharmaceuticalfirmsarebuying
smallerinnovators.
TheIPOmarkettellsasimilarstory.
Strongofferingsin2024setth
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