China’sOfficialEnergy

FinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomies

Evolvinginstitutions,instrumentsand

implicationsforcleanenergytransitions

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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China’sOfficialEnergyFinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomiesAbstract

Evolvinginstitutions,instrumentsandimplicationsforcleanenergytransitions

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Aboutthisreport

GlobalenergyinvestmentexceededUSD3.3trillionin2025,butcapitalflowsremainuneven.Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(EMDE)outsideChinaattractedjust27%oftotalenergyinvestmentand18%ofcleanenergyspending,despiteaccountingfornearlytwo-thirdsoftheglobalpopulationandthebulkoffuturedemand.AddressingthisimbalancerequiresmobilisingmorecapitalfromdiversesourcesintoEMDEenergysystems.

Chinacontinuestoplayacentralroleinglobalenergyinvestmentflowsbecauseofitslargedomesticinvestmentsanditslargeexternalcapitalspendingonenergy.Since2015,itsofficial-sectorinstitutionshavecommittedonaverageoverUSD55billionannuallytoenergy-relatedprojectsinEMDE–equivalenttoaround8%ofalltrackedcleanenergyinvestmentdirectedtotheseeconomies.Historically,thisfinancingwasdrivenbystate-ownedpolicybanksandsovereignactorsprovidingdebtand,insomecases,grants.Inrecentyears,however,thecompositionhasshifted.Whilefinancingcommitmentsareslowlyrisingagain,followingadropduringtheCOVIDpandemic,policy-banklendinghassignificantlycontractedandfocusedalmostentirelyoncleantechnologies.Meanwhile,state-ownedenterprises,state-ownedcommercialbanksandexportcreditagencieshavetakenonalargerrole,increasinglythroughequityinvestmentsorguarantees.Thisshiftsuggestsamovetowardsamorecompetitive–yetstillstate-directed–modelofinternationalenergyengagement.

ThesechangesreflectafinancingsystemadaptingtonewdomesticandglobalcircumstancesratherthanawithdrawalfromChina’soverseasenergyactivity.Forcleanenergydeploymentinparticular,theevolvingpatternpresentsbothopportunities–includingexpandedequityparticipationandgreaterrisk-sharing–andchallengeslinkedtounevenavailabilityofconcessionalorlong-tenorfinance.

Thisreportmapsandanalysesthesechangesthroughanenergysector-leveldatasetcovering2015to2024.ItexploreshowChina’sevolvingfinancingmodelisreshapinginstruments,institutionsandregionalallocationpatterns,andalsoconsidersthestrategicandpracticalimplicationsforEMDEenergytransitions.

Theanalysisiscomplementedbycasestudiescoveringarangeoftechnologiesandfinancialstructures–fromlarge-scalerenewablesandelectricitydistributiontogreenindustrialprojects,waste-to-energyandupstreamdevelopments–whichshowhowChina’sofficialactorsoperateinpracticeacrosscontrastingmarkets.

ChinasOfficialEnergyFinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomiesAcknowledgements

Evolvinginstitutions,instrumentsandimplicationsforcleanenergytransitions

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

ThisreportwaspreparedbytheEnergyInvestmentUnit(EIU)intheOfficeoftheChiefEnergyEconomistDivision(OCEE)oftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks.ItwasdesignedandledbyHaneulKim,undertheguidanceofCeciliaTam,HeadofEIUandChiefEnergyEconomist,TimGould.

OthermainauthorsincludeQiWang(external,JohnsHopkinsUniversity).

OtherIEAcolleaguescontributedvaluableinputsandfeedbackwithregardstothedatacollectionandanalysisinthisreport:RebeccaMcKimm,AloysNghiemandCelesteDelVecchio.

ThisreportwasproducedundertheIEAsCleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme(CETP).

TheauthorswouldliketoexpresstheirgratitudetotheIEAsChinaDeskfortheirvaluablecontributions,inputsandsupportintheformulationofthereport,aswellastotheStrategicInitiativesOfficeformakingthisstudypossible.

TheauthorswouldliketothankElspethThomsonforeditingthemanuscript.ThanksgototheIEAsCommunicationsandDigitalOfficeandtheInformationSystemsUnitfortheirhelpinproducingthereportandwebsitematerials,particularlyAstridDumond,LivGaunt,JonCuster,AnthonyPietromartireandIvoLetra.

ThisworkreflectstheviewsoftheIEASecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofIEAsindividualmembercountriesoranyparticularcontributor.

Commentsandquestionsonthisreportarewelcomeandcanbeaddressedto

Haneul.Kim@

.

ChinasOfficialEnergyFinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomiesTableofcontents

Evolvinginstitutions,instrumentsandimplicationsforcleanenergytransitions

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Tableofcontents

Settingthescene 7

Regionalimbalancesinenergyinvestment 7

InsideChinasofficialfinancingsystem 8

Dashboard 11

Overview 11

TrendsinChina’soutboundenergyfinance 15

Overallfinancingtrends 15

ThechangingroleofChinastraditionalofficialfinanciers 17

Theriseofotherofficialproviders 19

TheexpandingroleofSinosure 21

ImplicationsforEMDEenergytransitions 22

Casestudies 24

Case1.Uzbekistan1-GWsolarPVproject 25

Projectoverviewandimpact 25

FinancingmodelandChinasrole 26

Insightsandimplications 27

Case2.SouthernpowergridsacquisitionofEnelPerudistributionassets 28

Projectoverviewandimpact 28

FinancingmodelandChinasrole 29

Insightsandimplications 30

Case3.SaudiArabiasfirstgreenfull-processheavyplatemillproject 32

Projectoverviewandimpact 32

FinancingmodelandChinasrole 33

Insightsandimplications 33

Case4.TFCSolarPVprojectinSouthAfrica 35

Projectoverviewandimpact 35

FinancingmodelandChinasrole 36

Insightsandimplications 36

Case5.SilkRoadfundcommitmentinAfricanInfrastructureInvestmentFundIV 38

Projectoverviewandimpact 38

FinancingmodelandChinasrole 39

Insightsandimplications 40

China’sOfficialEnergyFinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomiesTableofcontents

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Case6.CNOOCinvestmentinGuyana:WhiptailOilField 41

Projectoverviewandimpact 41

FinancingmodelandChina’srole 41

Insightsandimplications 42

Case7.Palembangwaste-to-energyplant 44

Projectoverviewandimpact 44

FinancingmodelandChina’srole 44

Insightsandimplications 46

Annex 47

Methodology 47

Exchangeratesanddeflators 49

IEAscenarios 49

Abbreviationsandacronyms 50

Definitions 50

Regionalandcountrygroupings 54

ChinasOfficialEnergyFinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomiesSettingthescene

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Settingthescene

Regionalimbalancesinenergyinvestment

GlobalenergyinvestmenthassteadilyrisenoverthepastdecadeandreachedoverUSD3.3trillionforthefirsttimein2025.Cleanenergyinvestmenttrendsareespeciallynotablewithinvestmentsinarangeofcleanenergytechnologiesandinfrastructure,takentogether,accountingfornearlytwo-thirdsofglobalinvestmentstoday.However,theseheadlinenumbersoftenmaskapersistenttrend:agapingregionalimbalanceinglobalenergyinvestment.AfterremovingtheshareofinvestmentgoingtowardsadvancedeconomiesandPeoplesRepublicofChina(hereafter,China),emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(EMDE)otherthanChinaaccountforaround27%oftotalenergyinvestmentand18%ofcleanenergyinvestment.Withthe

bulkoffutureenergy

andelectricitydemandexpectedtobedrivenbyEMDE

,thisdisparityinfluencestheirabilitytodeliversecure,affordableenergytransitionsalignedwiththeirdevelopmentobjectives.

Globalcleanenergyinvestmentbyincomegroup,2015-2024

TrillionUSD(2024,MER)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Advancedeconomies

China

EMDE

otherthanChina

20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025e

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Note:SeeAnnexforspecificregionalgroupings.SomeadvancedeconomiesasdefinedbytheIEAs

GlobalEnergyand

ClimateModel

arestillrecipientsofoutboundinternationalpublicfinanceordevelopmentfinanceandareincludedinIEAsmodellingofinternationalpublicfinanceanddevelopmentfinanceneeds.

Source:IEA(2025)

,WorldEnergyInvestment2025.

FromaroundUSD875billiontoday,energyinvestmentinEMDEotherthanChinaneedstorisesubstantiallyinallscenarios.IntheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZEScenario),energyinvestmentinthesecountries,takentogether,reachesnearlyUSD2trillionby2035.Suchasubstantialscale-uprequirestaking

ChinasOfficialEnergyFinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomiesSettingthescene

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carefulstockofwhattheavailablesourcesoffinanceare,wheretheyaregoing,andhowtheyarebeingutilisedtoultimatelyunderstandthefuturecourseofaction.

IEAanalysisrevealsthatmuchofthefinancingforenergytodayinEMDEotherthanChina

derivesfromdomesticcapital

.However,giventhelimitationsoffiscalbudgetsanddomesticmarkets,itiscrucialforEMDEtomobiliseinternationalcapital.Therefore,internationalpublicfinance(IPF)concessionalornon-concessionalfundingcomingfromdevelopmentfinanceinstitutions(DFIs),multilateralclimatefunds,exportcreditagencies,governmentsandphilanthropiesoftendirectedtohigher-riskregionsornascenttechnologiesplaysacriticalrole.Whiletheabsolutesizeoftheirfinancingissmall,makinguplessthan10%ofinvestmentinEMDEotherthanChina,thiscapitalcanbeallocatedtomobiliseevenmoreprivateinvestment.

Chinahasbecomeamajorproviderofinternationalpublicfinance.Itsoutboundfinancingexpandedrapidlyintheyearsleadingupto2010aspartofbroadereconomicandindustrialstrategies,withtheChinaDevelopmentBank(CDB)andtheExportImportBankofChina(CEXIM)emergingastwooftheworldslargestDFIs.ThelaunchoftheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)in2013furtheracceleratedthisoutwardpush,formalisingChinasambitiontostrengthencross-borderinfrastructure,energyaccessandeconomicties.WhileChinaisnotatraditionaldonorrepresentedinforasuchastheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopments(OECDs)developmentassistancecommittee,itsofficial-sectorinstitutionshavebecomehighlyactiveabroad,particularlyinenergy.TheiroverseasengagementrespondsnotonlytodomesticprioritiessuchassecuringsupplychainsandsupportingtheglobalexpansionofChinesedevelopersandequipmentmanufacturersbutalsotostrongdemandfrompartnercountriesforinvestmentthatcanhelpadvancetheirowndevelopmentandtransitiongoals.ThiscombinationhaspositionedChinaasoneofthelargestsourcesofofficialfinancingforenergyprojectsinEMDE.

Thisreportbuildson

previousIEAwork

bytakingacloserlookatthecompositionofChinasoutboundenergyfinance.Byidentifyingthemainofficial-sectorinstitutionsandtheinstrumentstheyuse,itprovidesaclearerviewofhowChinesecapitalisdeployedabroad.Thenextsectionoutlinesthisinstitutionalarchitecture.

InsideChina’sofficialfinancingsystem

Chinasofficialfinancingsectorreferstostate-ownedorstate-directedinstitutionsthatprovidefinancingorinvestmentabroadinsupportofnationaleconomic,industrialanddiplomaticobjectives.Althoughtheirmandatesandoperatingmodelsdiffer,theseinstitutionssharetwofeatures,publicownershipandpolicyalignment,includingthesupportfordomesticindustrialcompetitiveness,advancingenergysecurity,increasinginternationalconnectivityandpromoting

China’sOfficialEnergyFinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomiesSettingthescene

Evolvinginstitutions,instrumentsandimplicationsforcleanenergytransitions

low-carbondevelopmentpathwaysinpartnercountries.Inthecontextofthisreport,theofficialfinancingsectorincludesfivegroupsofinstitutionsactiveinoutboundenergyfinancing:governmentagencies,state-ownedpolicybanks,state-ownedfunds,state-ownedcommercialbanksandstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs).

Chineseofficialoutboundfinanceproviders

ProvidertypeCharacteristicsExamples

1

Governmentagencies

?

?

Playarelativelysmallroleinoutboundenergyfinancing,mainlyprovidinggrants,feasibilitystudiesortechnicalsupport.

FormpartofChina’sbroaderdevelopment

engagementbutrepresentonlyaminorshareoftotalenergy-relatedflows.

MinistryofForeign

Affairs,People’sBankof

China,Provincial

governments

State-owned

policybanks

?

AretraditionallycoreprovidersofChineseoverseasfinanceinenergy.

?

Offerlarge,long-tenorloansandsupport

ChinaDevelopment

?

strategicenergy,infrastructureandindustrialprojectsinpartnercountries.

Operateasdevelopment-orientedlenderswiththemandateandcapacitytoextendloans.

Bank,Export-ImportBankofChina

2

State-ownedfunds

?

?

Primarilyprovideequityorquasi-equitycapital,oftenthroughminorstakesingenerationassets,gridcompaniesorregionalenergyplatforms.

Alsoextenddebtorhybridinstrumentswhenneededtosupportprojectstructuring.

ChinaInvestment

Corporation,

SilkRoadFund

State-ownedcommercial

banks

?Operateasprofit-orientedfinancialinstitutionsbutremainmajoritystate-ownedandstrategically

alignedwithnationalpriorities.

?Increasinglysupportoutboundactivitythroughsyndicatedloans,bridgefinancingand

refinancinglinkedtoChinesecompaniesoperatingabroad.

Industrialand

CommercialBankof

China,

BankofChina

State-ownedenterprises

?

?

?

Includeprojectdevelopers,gridcompaniesandengineeringconglomeratesthataremajority

ownedbythestate.

Participateinoutboundenergyfinancethroughequitystakes,jointventures,projectdevelopmentandEPC(engineering,procurement,and

construction)-linkedinvestmentstructures.

Whiletheirfinancingisfullycommercial,theyarestate-ownedcompanieswhoseoutwardactivityisencouragedandguidedbyindustrialpolicy.

StateGridCorporation

ofChina,China

SouthernPowerGrid,

ChinaPetroleum&

ChemicalCorporation

1Theexampleslistedforeachprovidertypeareindicativeoftheinstitutionsactiveinenergyfinancingspecifically,andisnotanexhaustivelistofentitiespresentinthedatausedforthisreportorofChina’sofficialfinancesector.

2TheExport-ImportBankofChina(CEXIM)isanexportcreditagency(ECA),butunlikeinsurance-basedECAs,itprovidessovereignandcorporateloansasacorepartofitsmandate.Forthisreason,CEXIMistreatedasastate-ownedpolicybankinthisreport.Insurance-basedexportcreditagencies,suchasSinosure(introducedinlaterpartsofthisreport),donotprovideloansandthereforefallintoaseparatecategory.

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Takentogether,theseinstitutionsspanaspectrumfromtraditionalpublicfinancierstomorecommercially-orientedonesbutarestillstate-directedactors.Governmentagenciesandstate-ownedpolicybanksanchorthetraditionalend,providinggrantsordebtwithclearpublicpolicymandates.State-ownedfunds,state-ownedcommercialbanksandSOEssittowardsthecommercialend,offeringawidermixofinstrumentsfromequityandhybridcapitaltoguaranteesandofteninvestingdirectlyinprojectcompaniesorjointventures.Although

theseinstitutionsoperatewithdifferingdegreesofcommercialautonomy,theyareallpubliclyownedandstrategicallyaligned,andtheiroverseasactivityformsacentralpillarofChinasofficialfinancialengagementabroad.

China’sOfficialEnergyFinanceinEmergingandDevelopingEconomiesDashboard

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Dashboard

Overview

ThedashboardprovidesaninteractiveviewofChineseofficial-sectorfinancingforenergyacrossEMDE,enablinguserstoexploreproject-leveldatabyyear,recipientcountryorregion,technology,instrument,providertypeandcurrency(whenapplicable).DevelopedtobringgreaterunderstandingofChina’sdiversefinancingchannels,thedashboardallowsuserstofilterandcompareflowsineitherUSD(2024,MER)orbyprojectcount.ItisdesignedtocomplementtheanalysisinthisreportandtosupportdeeperunderstandingofhowdifferentinstitutionsandinstrumentsshapeChina’sroleinEMDEenergyfinance.

UsethefilterstoexplorehowChineseenergyfinanceisdistributedaround

theworld.

Datadashboard

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Definitionofthefields

Technology

Specifiesthetypeoftechnologytheprovidedfinancingsupports.Whenaspecificprojectspansmultipletechnologies,theyaresplitproportionally.

Fossilfuelsupply:Activitiesrelatedtotheextraction,processingandtransportoffossilfuels,includingcoalmining,oilandgasproduction,liquefaction,refining,pipelinesandassociatedinfrastructure.Thiscategorycoversupstreamandmidstreamsupplyratherthanelectricitygeneration.

Fossilfuelgeneration:Electricityandheatgenerationusingfossilfuels,includingcoal-,oil-andnaturalgas–firedpowerplants.Itexcludesfossilfuelsupplyactivitiesandfocusesonlyonpowerandheatproduction.Fossilfuelgenerationprojectsinthisdashboarddonotexplicitlyincludecarboncapture,utilisationandstoragetechnologies.

Gridsandstorage:Infrastructurefortransmitting,distributingandmanagingelectricity,includingtransmissionanddistributionnetworks,substations,gridreinforcementandbatteryenergystoragesystems.Storagerefersprimarilytogrid-connectedbatterystorageusedtobalancesupplyanddemand.

Renewablegeneration:Electricitygenerationfromrenewableenergysources,includingsolarphotovoltaics,wind,hydropower,geothermal,modernbioenergyandrenewablewaste.Itcoversutility-scaleanddistributedrenewablepowerprojects.

Transport:Energy-relatedinfrastructureandassetslinkedtothetransportofpeopleandgoods,includingrailways,urbantransitsystems,portsandfuelorelectricitysupplyfortransport.Itincludestransportelectrificationandefficiency-relatedinvestmentswhereapplicable.

Nucleargeneration:Electricitygenerationfromnuclearpowerplants,includingnewreactorconstruction,lifeextensionsandmajorrefurbishmentsofexistingnuclearfacilities.

Industry:Energyuseandenergy-relatedinfrastructureinindustrialactivities,includingmanufacturing,constructionandprocessingindustriessuchassteel,cement,chemicalsandaluminium.Itincludesprojectsrelatedtoindustrialenergysupply,efficiencyimprovementsandlow-emissionsindustrialprocesses.

Buildings:Energyuseandenergy-relatedinvestmentsinresidentialandservicesbuildings,includingspaceheatingandcooling,waterheating,lighting,appliancesandbuildingelectrification.Servicesbuildingsincludecommercialandinstitutionalbuildingssuchasschools,hospitalsandoffices.

Other:Energy-relatedprojectsthateither(i)fallintosmallercategoriesnotshownseparatelyinthedashboard—includingnon-renewablewastegenerationandlow-emissionsfuels—or(ii)aremulti-sector/integratedtransactionswheretheunderlyingtechnologiescannotbereliablyattributedtoasinglecategorywiththe

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availableinformation.Theseactivitiesaregroupedherebecausetheirvolumesaresmalland/orthetechnologysplitisnotidentifiableattheprojectlevel.

Region

PleaserefertotheAnnexofthereport(inserthyperlinkofthereport)forspecificregionalgroupingsforthisdashboard.

Instrument

Debt:Capitalprovidedintheformofloansorbondsthatmustberepaidoveranagreedperiod(tenor),typicallywithinterest.Inthisreport,debtincludesshort-andlong-tenorlendingbypolicybanks,commercialbanksandotherfinancialinstitutionstofinanceenergy-relatedprojects.

Equity:Capitalinvestedinexchangeforanownershipstakeinanasset,companyorproject,withreturnslinkedtofutureprofits,dividendsorassetvalueratherthanfixedrepayments.Inthisreport,equityincludesdirectinvestmentsinenergyassetsorprojectcompanies,jointventures,acquisitions,aswellascommitmentstoequityfundsandfund-of-fundstructuresthatinvestinenergy-relatedinfrastructure.

Grant:Thetransferoffundsbydevelopmentfinanceinstitutionsordonors,usuallywithanobligationtospendthemoneyonacontractuallydefinedprojectorsetofeligibleexpenses.Grantpaymentsdonotneedtoberepaidwithmoneyorequityaslongasthecontractualconditionsaremet.

Provider

State-ownedpolicybank:Astate-ownedfinancialinstitutionestablishedtosupportnationaleconomicanddevelopmentobjectivesthroughlong-termfinancing.State-ownedpolicybankstypicallyprovideloansand,insomecases,grantsorequitytolarge-scaleinfrastructureandstrategicprojects,operatingwithapolicymandateratherthanpurelycommercialreturnrequirements.

State-ownedenterprise:Acompanyownedorcontrolledbythestatethatoperatesonacommercialbasis.State-ownedenterprisesinvestinoverseasenergyprojectsprimarilythroughequityparticipation,jointventures,acquisitionsandbuild-operatearrangements,oftencombiningfinancingwithengineering,procurement,constructionandoperationalcapabilities.

State-ownedcommercialbank:Acommerciallyorientedbankmajority-ownedbythestateandoperatingundermarket-basedprinciples.State-ownedcommercialbanksprovidefinancingthroughinstrumentssuchascorporateloans,projectfinanceandsyndicatedlending,whileremainingalignedwithnationalregulatoryandstrategicframeworks.

Governmentagency:Apublicinstitutionthatprovidesfinancialsupportusinggovernmentbudgetaryresourcesratherthancommercialbankingoperations.

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Governmentagenciestypicallysupportoverseasprojectsthroughgrants, concessionalfundingorcapitalcontributionstodedicatedprogrammesandfunds.State-ownedfund:Apublicinstitutionthatprovidesfinancialsupportusing governmentbudgetaryresourcesratherthancommercialbankingoperations. Governmentagenciestypicallysupportoverseasprojectsthroughgrants,concessionalfundingorcapitalcontributionstodedicatedprogrammesandfunds.

Currency

USD:UnitedStatesdollar

EUR:Euro

CNY:Chineseyuan(renminbi)

Other:ThisdatasetincludesexamplesoffinancingdenominatedinBotswanapula(BWP),WestAfricanCFAfranc(XOF),Nepaleserupee(NPR),Mauritianrupee(MUR),Argentinepeso(ARS),Comorianfranc(KMF),CentralAfricanCFAfranc(XAF),Cubanpeso(CUP),Seychelloisrupee(SCR),Philippinepeso(PHP),SriLankanrupee(LKR),Tonganpa?anga(TOP),Brazilianreal(BRL),Pakistanirupee(PKR),HongKongdollar(HKD),SouthAfricanrand(ZAR),Turkishlira(TRY),Indonesianrupiah(IDR),Malaysianringg