股票研究行業(yè)年報證券研究報告股票研究行業(yè)年報證券研究報告股票研究/2026-01-12-27.6%/-6.4%/-19.2%。2）從成交端，全國樣本城市土地成交建面其中一線/二線/三四線土地成交建面分別為1388/22133/75142萬平方米，分別同比-25.9%/-5.7%/-14.1%，土地成交金額分別為其中一線/二線/三四線城市分別為10.7%/6.2%/3.1%，分別同比+3.8pct/+2.3pct/-0.6pct，且上海/深圳/杭州/成都全年溢價率突破價率前高后底，年初在優(yōu)質(zhì)地塊及房企項目周期等因素的多重刺激溢價率也同步下滑。此外，從城市集中度上，2025年全國TOPTOP20城市宅地出讓金額在全國比重分別為37為央國企，包括中海地產(chǎn)、保利發(fā)展、華潤置地、招商蛇口、綠城中國、建發(fā)房產(chǎn)、越秀地產(chǎn)、中國金茂、保利置業(yè)、中國中鐵和中團拿地強度最高，為81.9%，其他房企也整體表現(xiàn)為拿地強度的同 31.1.供應(yīng)審慎，推地規(guī)模繼續(xù)收縮 31.2.優(yōu)質(zhì)地塊主導(dǎo)市場，聚焦一二線城市 52.央國企為拿地主力，頭部房企拿地強度大幅提升 8 請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分2of122025年全國樣本城市1土地2成交建土地供應(yīng)建面（萬平方米）土地成交建面（萬平方米）土地成交金額（億元）土地成交樓面均價（元/平方米）土地平均溢價率2025202420252024202520242025202420252024全國樣本城市117242141081-16.9%98663112795-12.5%2848832171-11.4%288727923.4%5.3%4.2%+1.1pct：一線城市14752037-27.6%13881875-25.9%38804465-13.1%279452381717.3%10.7%6.9%+3.8pct：二線城市2531527034-6.4%2213323467-5.7%1092711144-1.9%493547444.0%6.2%3.9%+2.3pct：三四線城市90452112010-19.2%7514287454-14.1%1368116562-17.4%18211894-3.9%3.1%3.6%-0.6pct數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究杭州等核心優(yōu)質(zhì)城市大力推地有關(guān)。根據(jù)中指數(shù)據(jù)，以公告時間為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)統(tǒng)1注：本文統(tǒng)計的全國樣本城市為中指研究院除一線城市外的所有省會、直轄市和大連、無錫、蘇州、寧波、溫州、廈門、青島、北海2注：本文統(tǒng)計城市土地數(shù)據(jù)包含住宅用地、綜合用地（含請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分3of12數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分4of12數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究二線城市成交樓面均價為4935元/平方米，同比上漲4%，三四線城市成交樓面均價為1821元/平方米，同比下滑3.9%。圖13：2021-2025全國樣本城市土數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分5of12圖17：2021-2025全國樣本城市土地平均數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究城市上海杭州成都石家莊土地成交宗數(shù)275217215土地成交建面（萬平方米）4382667土地成交金額（億元）242土地成交樓面均價3529936541217162213294135383145土地平均溢價率6.1%4.0%26.9%25.4%0.8%3.0%4.8%4.9%4.8%0.6%數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分6of12 浦東新區(qū)單元C1A-3地塊浦東新區(qū)北蔡楔形綠地C09b-01地塊閔行區(qū)莘莊社區(qū)02單元06-05地塊金沙鷺島房地產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分7of12企中央國企/地方國資/混合所有制企業(yè)/民營房企的占比分別為壹品拿地強度超過50%，其他房企也整體表現(xiàn)為拿地強度的同比上漲。數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：克而瑞，HTI研究數(shù)據(jù)來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)，克而瑞，HTI研究3注：參考2022~2024年克而瑞權(quán)益銷售金額榜單，篩選每年銷售TOP20房請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分8of企業(yè)名稱權(quán)益銷售金額（億元）權(quán)益拿地金額（億元）拿地強度參考：季度拿地強度20222023202420252022202320242025202220232024202520252025Q1-22025Q1-3276127882858231127.2%39.5%24.1%39.3%63.9%35.6%48.4%保利發(fā)展2545200023.9%36.8%22.9%33.5%24.4%36.2%30.8%華潤置地2112217941.3%37.1%30.2%36.7%67.8%35.5%49.6%萬科地產(chǎn)2731244124147403.0%4.6%///招商蛇口28529.4%33.0%44.9%57.9%33.5%54.4%綠城中國45136.8%49.6%43.7%56.9%70.4%72.7%建發(fā)房產(chǎn)40641145.1%53.5%39.0%45.2%94.3%64.3%55.9%40438.9%43.5%26.0%華發(fā)股份29928039.8%32.1%9.8%越秀地產(chǎn)20627.6%44.0%27.5%31.7%28.4%24.9%20120.6%27.6%43.2%70.8%52.8%龍湖集團438256259/20.2%22.6%/7.7%7.1%7.3%綠地控股///////////濱江集團47740325621946.1%34.6%40.3%91.2%碧桂園472/////////金地集團424/9.1%////保利置業(yè)33.1%26.1%48.2%54.4%70.5%47.1%/244/210/59.9%61.4%52.8%/21.0%28.7%/267//30.2%/38.9%42.0%39.9%偉星房產(chǎn)/47.0%46.9%///25.5%新城控股278///////////融創(chuàng)中國466259///////////遠(yuǎn)洋集團229///////////旭輝集團2858///////////數(shù)據(jù)來源：克而瑞，中指數(shù)據(jù)，HTI研究123456789////////////數(shù)據(jù)來源：克而瑞，HTI研究請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分9of12板塊總市值水平與行業(yè)在經(jīng)濟中所處地位不A股-保利發(fā)展、招商蛇口、金地集團、衢2024A2025E金地集團行業(yè)面臨政策不及預(yù)期風(fēng)險、基本面下行風(fēng)險。APPENDIX1SummaryInvestmentHighlights:ThecurrenttotalmarketcapoftheAHrealestatesectordoesnotmatchitseconomicposition.Keytargets:1)Development:A-Shares-PolyDevelopments,ChinaMerchantsShekou,GemdaleCorporation,ShanghaiZhangjiangHi-TechParkDevelopment;H-Shares-ChinaResourcesLand,ChinaOverseasLand&Investment,ChinaJinmaoHoldings,YuexiuProperty.2)Residential:SeazenHoldings,LongforGroupHoldings.3)PropertyManagement:Onewo,ChinaResourcesMixcLifestyleServices,ChinaOverseasPropertyHoldings,PolyPropertyServices,ChinaMerchantsPropertyOperation&Service,YuexiuServicesGroup.4)CulturalTourism:ShenzhenOverseasChineseTown.In2025,thelandmarketwillfocuson‘qualityoverquantity’.1)Supply:Nationalsamplecities’landsupplyis1,172.42millionsquaremeters,down16.9%YoY.First/second/third-fourthtiercitiessupply14.75/253.15/904.52millionsquaremeters,down27.6%/6.4%/19.2%YoY.2)Transactions:Nationalsamplecities’landtransactionsare986.63millionsquaremeters,down12.5%YoY,withtransactionvalueatRMB2.85trillion,down11.4%YoY.AveragetransactionfloorpriceisRMB2,887persquaremeter,up3.4%YoY.First/second/third-fourthtiercities’transactionareasare13.88/221.33/751.42millionsquaremeters,down25.9%/5.7%/14.1%YoY.TransactionvaluesareRMB388billion/1.09trillion/1.37trillion,down13.1%/1.9%/17.4%YoY.AveragefloorpricesareRMB27,945/4,935/1,821persquaremeter,up17.3%/4.0%/-3.9%YoY.Corecities’landtransferfeesremainoverhalf,withfirstandsecond-tiercities’premiumratesrelativelyhigh.In2025,theaveragepremiumrateinnationalsamplecitiesis5.3%,up1.1percentagepointsYoY.First/second/third-fourthtiercitiesare10.7%/6.2%/3.1%,up3.8/2.3/-0.6percentagepointsYoY.Shanghai/Shenzhen/Hangzhou/Chengdu’sannualpremiumratesexceed10%,at15.3%/26.9%/25.4%/10.3%.Quarterly,premiumratesarehighearlyintheyear,thendecline.Earlyyearsawasurgeduetoqualityplotsandprojectcycles,butinvestmentrationalizedmid-year,reducingheatandpremiumrates.In2025,thetop10andtop20cities’residentiallandtransferamountsaccountfor37%and52%ofthenationaltotal,up3and1percentagepointsfrom2024.Keyrealestatecompanies’investmentstrategiesalign,withcentralSOEsandleadingcompaniesmoreactiveininvestment.In2025,12realestatecompaniesexceededRMB10billioninlandacquisition,11beingcentralSOEs,includingCOLI,PolyDevelopments,ChinaResourcesLand,ChinaMerchantsShekou,GreentownChinaHoldings,C&DRealEstate,YuexiuProperty,ChinaJinmaoHoldings,PolyProperty,ChinaRailwayGroup,andChinaStateConstructionEngineeringCorporation,withonlyHangzhouBinjiangRealEstateGroupasaprivateenterprise.Combiningsalesdata,HangzhouBinjiangRealEstateGrouphasthehighestlandacquisitionintensityat81.9%,withothercompaniesalsoshowingYoYincreases.Overall,thetop100realestatecompanies’landacquisitionintensityis0.29,up70.6%YoY.RiskWarning:Theindustryfacesrisksofweakerthanexpectedpoliciesandfundamentaldownturns.Compendiumdisclosure：Fordisclosuresassociatedwitheachcompanymentionedherein,includingdisclosureofrisks,valuationmethodologiesandtargetpriceformation,ifany,pleaserefertothefullreportonourwebsite().4