1、經(jīng)典文 1.1Container Shipping Changes As commerce has become and continues to be more international, ocean container shipments have grown exponentially as a means of moving most any kind of freight from one port to another. Buffered by waves of change touching other modes of transport, ocean carriers ar

2、e in a constant process of altering the way they conduct their business to meet current needs of shipping customers. While chartered to serve a wider public with insight about the industry, the Container Shipping Information Service (CSIS) is able to provide a spokesperson from one of its 24 member

3、companies to treat objectively with commonly shared issues. Andres Kulka, senior vice president of CSAV Group North America shares just such insights. In an environment of high transportation costs, ocean container shippings mix of speed, cost, availability and capability offers a superior value pro

4、position, especially as logistics and supply chain management processes and systems are implemented by a growing range of shippers. Because of their shelf life or time value certain commodities must be transported by air. Increases in the need to speedily transport these commodities along with the g

5、reater economy will be a primary factor for airfreight growth in the future. But spiraling fuel surcharges and resulting cost consciousness among shippers opens opportunities for ocean carriers to gain market share in the broader spectrum of non- perishable commodities where airfreights cost effecti

6、veness has diminished. 下載后可編輯復(fù)制 經(jīng)典文 Shortages of containers is produced by commercial imbalance situations. When exports outgrow imports in a geographic region, you may face equipment shortages, as was the case in Asia. When you add imbalance by type of equipment to the situation, the situation wors

7、ens. While at present leasing containers are available to meet the demand in Asia, container pricing has reached levels of $2,500 for a dry,due largely, to the increase of commodities costs and deterioration of the US exchange There have been reports of shortages of containers, particularly for carg

8、o moving from Asia. Under these conditions,shipping lines are relying primarily on empty repositioning to Asia rather than use of fresh equipment.The shortage of equipment in the US today is due to two primary factors. First,exports are growing at high rates, mainly because of devaluation of the US

9、dollar.Additionally imports are pretty much staggered causing, again, a commercial imbalance. Secondly, last year many nonprofitable international intermodal lanes were eliminated. This reduced the stock of containers at some inland locations available for exports.Location specific equipment shortag

10、es have created the need for increasing empty container repositioning. That is one of the reasons export freight rates have gone up. Media pays great attention to Asian business, but how healthy is container shipping in other regions, say Latin America? In fact trade with Latin America has been sens

11、itive to the sharp fall of the 下載后可編輯復(fù)制 經(jīng)典文 US dollar. For example in 2007 the Brazilian real was down 17% and the Chilean peso fell 7%. For exports total 2007 volumes for Latin America were about 800,000 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), approximately 20% greater than 2006. Top commodities export

12、ed to Latin America have been resins,chemicals, plastics, forest products and general merchandise. Higher rates have followed the increase in export demand.Foodstuffs and forest products dominate import volumes from South America, about 970,000 TEU in 2007. Unlike exports, import volume growth5.5% g

13、reater than 2006has slowed due to the decline of the US dollar. Import rates have risen, but not nearly as strongly as export rates. So far in 2008 the US dollar has continued its downward trend. We are very cautious about the future outlook. Even though exports will probably continue growing at hig

14、h rates, imports might continue decreasing. 1.2Discussion of Structural Standards Development Taken as a whole, there has been a piecemeal approach to structural design standards. As technical developments occur (models of various structural behaviours, risk methodologies), they have been incorporat

15、ed into structural standards. Individuals and rule committees have framed their own rules with an emphasis on certain load/strength/failure models, coupled with some risk avoidance strategy (explicit or implicit). It is hardly surprising that various standards are different, even quite different. Mo

16、re, 下載后可編輯復(fù)制 經(jīng)典文 rather than fewer, concepts are available to those who develop structural standards. In the absence of a binding philosophy of structural behaviour, there will continue to be divergence along the way to improved standards. It must be appreciated that all current standards “work”. An

17、y of the current naval and commercial ship design approaches can be used to produce structural designs that function with adequate reliability over a 20+ year life expectancy, unless subjected to poor maintenance, human operational error, or deliberate damage. Changes to standards are, therefore, re

18、sisted by all those who have invested time and effort in them as developers and users. The rationale for change must be presented well, and its benefits have to outweigh its costs. Experienced designers recognize that structural behaviour can be very complex. Despite this, it is necessary to use sim

19、ple, practical approaches in design standards, to avoid adding to the problem through overly-complex rules that are difficult to apply and more so to check and audit. Stress is the primary load-effect that standards focus on, partly because it is so readily calculated. The main concerns are material

20、 yielding, buckling and fatigue. All of these are local behaviours, and all are used as surrogates for actual structural failure. A structure is a system, comprised of elements, which in turn are built from materials. As an example, yielding can be considered. Yielding is a material level failure, v

21、ery common, usually very localized, and usually producing no 下載后可編輯復(fù)制 經(jīng)典文 observable effect. It can be quite irrelevant. The important issue is the behaviour and failure of the structural system, even at the level of the structural components. Ship structures are especially redundant structures, qui

22、te unlike most civil structures and buildings. Ship structures are exposed to some of the harshest loading regimes, yet are usually capable of tolerating extensive material and component failure, prior to actual structural collapse. An essential deficiency of all traditional structural standards has

23、 been the failure to consider the structural redundancy (path to failure) and identify weaknesses in the system. Areas of weakness are normally defined as those parts that will first yield or fail. However, far more important is the ability of the structure to withstand these and subsequent local/ma

24、terial failures and redistribute the load. The real weaknesses are a lack of secondary load paths. It is often assumed, wrongly, that initial strength is a valid indicator for ultimate strength, and far simpler to assess. There is a need to focus on ways of creating robust structures, much as we use

25、 subdivision to create adequate damage stability. As another example, consider frames under lateral loads. When designed properly, frames can exhibit not only sufficient initial strength, but substantial reserve strength, due to the secondary load path created by axial stresses in the plate and fram

26、e. In effect, it is possible to create a ductile structure (analogous to a ductile material). If we instead use current design 下載后可編輯復(fù)制 經(jīng)典文 standards that emphasize elastic section modulus, we risk creating a brittle structure, even when built from ductile materials. In the case of fatigue and buckl

27、ing, it is again necessary to stand back from consideration of the initial effects, and examine whether there is sufficient reserve (secondary load paths). When there is no such reserve, there is the structural equivalent of a subdivision plan that cannot tolerate even one compartment flooding. The

28、above discussion talks only about structural response, and indicated some gaps. Similar gaps exist in our knowledge of loads. The complexity of ship structures, the complexity of the loads that arise in a marine environment, and the dominating influence of human factors in any risk assessment for ve

29、ssels, all present daunting challenges. The project teams approach to this project, described in the following sections, has intended to provide part of the basis for future design standard development. 1.1集裝箱運(yùn)輸?shù)淖兓?當(dāng)商業(yè)已成為并將繼續(xù)更加國(guó)際化，遠(yuǎn)洋集裝箱運(yùn)輸已成為成倍 增長(zhǎng)的將任何種類的貨物從一個(gè)港口移到另一個(gè)港口的手段。緩沖了 一波又一波涉及其他運(yùn)輸方式的變革，海上承運(yùn)人不斷改

30、變運(yùn)送方式 開(kāi)展業(yè)務(wù)，以滿足當(dāng)前航運(yùn)客戶的需要。而更廣泛的公眾深入了解本 行業(yè)服務(wù)，從24個(gè)會(huì)員公司對(duì)待客觀共同問(wèn)題上，集裝箱運(yùn)輸信息服 下載后可編輯復(fù)制 經(jīng)典文 務(wù)是能夠提供的發(fā)言人之一。Andres Kulka ，北美南美船務(wù)集團(tuán)高級(jí) 總裁分享這樣的見(jiàn)解。 在高運(yùn)輸成本的環(huán)境中，通過(guò)越來(lái)越多的貨主特別是物流及供應(yīng) 鏈管理流程和系統(tǒng)的實(shí)施，遠(yuǎn)洋集裝箱運(yùn)輸混合了速度，成本，實(shí)用 性和功能性，提供了卓越的價(jià)值主張。原因是他們的貨架壽命或某些 商品的時(shí)間價(jià)值必須通過(guò)空運(yùn)。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)需求的迅速增長(zhǎng)，將是未來(lái) 航空貨運(yùn)增長(zhǎng)前景的一個(gè)主要因素。但燃油附加費(fèi)上升造成的成本意 識(shí)和托運(yùn)人之間開(kāi)辟海運(yùn)承運(yùn)人的機(jī)

31、會(huì)，在廣泛的非易腐商品以擴(kuò)大 市場(chǎng)占有率，減少航空貨運(yùn)的成本效益。 短缺的集裝箱是因商業(yè)的不平衡。當(dāng)出口增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)進(jìn)口的地理區(qū) 域，則可能面臨設(shè)備短缺，就像亞洲的情況。當(dāng)您添加不平衡類型設(shè) 備的情況下，局勢(shì)惡化。雖然目前租賃集裝箱可滿足在亞洲的需求， 集裝箱的價(jià)格水平已經(jīng)達(dá)到2500美元干燥，這主要是由于商品的成本 增加和美國(guó)的匯率衰退。 有報(bào)道集裝箱短缺，特別是對(duì)來(lái)自亞洲的運(yùn)輸貨物。 在這種情況下，航運(yùn)公司是主要依靠空定位到亞洲，而不是使用 新的設(shè)備。設(shè)備短缺的問(wèn)題在美國(guó)的今天是由于兩個(gè)因素。首先，出 口高利率增長(zhǎng)，這主要是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)貨幣貶值，加之進(jìn)口交錯(cuò)的原因， 再者，商業(yè)不大平衡。其次，去年

32、許多非盈利國(guó)際聯(lián)運(yùn)線被取消了。 這減少了在一些內(nèi)陸地區(qū)用于出口的庫(kù)存的集裝箱。針對(duì)特定位置的 設(shè)備短缺創(chuàng)造了增加空集裝箱定位必要。這是出口貨運(yùn)利率上升原因 之一。 下載后可編輯復(fù)制 經(jīng)典文 媒體高度重視亞洲業(yè)務(wù)，但健康的集裝箱航運(yùn)公司在其他地區(qū)， 比如拉丁美洲怎么樣呢？ 與拉丁美洲的貿(mào)易已經(jīng)敏感地隨著美元大幅下跌。例如在2007年 巴西雷亞爾下跌了17 ，而智利比索下降了7 。2007年拉丁美洲 總出口量約有800,000標(biāo)準(zhǔn)箱（ 20呎標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貨柜單位） ，相比2006年約 大20 。熱門商品出口到拉丁美洲有樹脂，化工制品，塑料制品，森 林產(chǎn)品和一般商品。較高的利率已跟隨出口增加。2007年，食

33、品和林 產(chǎn)品的在來(lái)自南美洲進(jìn)口量中占首要地位，約970，000標(biāo)準(zhǔn)箱。不同 于出口，進(jìn)口量增長(zhǎng)5.5 ，大于2006年，由于美元下降已經(jīng)放慢。 進(jìn)口率有所上升，但并不像強(qiáng)烈的出口率。在2008年迄今，美元繼續(xù) 呈下降趨勢(shì)。我們非常謹(jǐn)慎，未來(lái)的前景。盡管出口量將可能繼續(xù)在 高增長(zhǎng)，進(jìn)口可能會(huì)繼續(xù)下降。 1.2結(jié)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)發(fā)展的探討 作為一個(gè)整體，結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)出現(xiàn)了零零碎碎的方式。隨著技術(shù) 的發(fā)展出現(xiàn)（各種結(jié)構(gòu)表現(xiàn)的模型，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性方法） ，他們已成為結(jié)構(gòu) 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的一部分。個(gè)人和規(guī)則委員會(huì)制定自己的規(guī)則，重點(diǎn)是某些負(fù)載/ 強(qiáng)度/失敗的模式，再加上一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避戰(zhàn)略（明示或暗示）。各種不 同的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，甚至是完全不

34、同的不足為奇。更多信息，而不是更少，概 念是可用于那些人們發(fā)展的結(jié)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。由于缺乏有約束力的結(jié)構(gòu)表現(xiàn) 哲學(xué)，因此將繼續(xù)前進(jìn)的分歧道路上改善標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 大家必須明白所有現(xiàn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)“成果” 。任何當(dāng)前的海軍和商業(yè)船舶 下載后可編輯復(fù)制 經(jīng)典文 設(shè)計(jì)方法可用于生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)， 功能足夠的可靠性超過(guò)了20 +年的平均 壽命，除非受到保養(yǎng)不善，人為操作錯(cuò)誤，或故意損壞。為此，所有 這些人投入的時(shí)間和精力的開(kāi)發(fā)人員和用戶抵制改變標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。改變的理 由必須包含的好，它的好處要大于它的成本。 經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的設(shè)計(jì)人員認(rèn)識(shí)到，結(jié)構(gòu)性可以是非常復(fù)雜的。盡管如 此，在設(shè)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)中為避免增加過(guò)多的問(wèn)題，使用簡(jiǎn)單，辦法實(shí)用是非 常必要的，復(fù)雜的規(guī)則，難以適用，尤其是檢查和審計(jì)。壓力是主要 荷載效應(yīng)