1、BUSINESSSIMULATIONCASESupply Chains Manufacturing Business Processes DefenseOil & GasWarehouse OperationsSTUDIESHealthcare Transportation Rail LogisticsCargo Ports & TerminalsPassenger Terminals MarketingCONTENTSIntroduction030102030405060708091011Siemens: Digital Twin of Gas Turbine Fleet Operation

2、s04Microsoft: End-To-End Supply Chain Management Solution10CNH Industrial: Digital Twin of a Manufacturing Line16PWC: Major US Airline Decides not to Charge Additional Fees20CCC: Construction Simulation Model for Tackling Increased Constraints24Frankfurt Airport: Passenger Flow Simulation28CSX: Solv

3、ing Railroad Operation Challenges31Lockheed Martin: Improving Plane Maintenance Process36Transocean: Simulation Based Digital Twin for Well Construction Process Optimization40Goldratt: Improving Reliability and Profitability of Integrated Steel Supply Chain44Le Havre: Internal Rail Logistics Simulat

4、ion49011213141516171819Cardinal Health: Optimizing Warehouse Operations52YPF: Resource Optimization in the Oil & Gas Industry56REME: Military Aircraft Maintenance Scheduling and Staffing Optimization60Pfizer: Using Predictive Modeling in Healthcare for Simulation of Clinical Trials64Karolinska Unive

5、rsity Hospital: Simulation of Maternity Ward Operations67Symbotic: Evaluating Introduction of Warehouse Automation Systems70Fruit of the Loom: Choosing Location for New Distribution Center73STREAM: Oil Pipeline Network Design78Additional resources81ontacts8202INTRODUCTIONAnyLogic software, developed

6、 by The AnyLogic Company, provides a single platform for all your businesss dynamic simulation modelingneeds. It is utilized worldwide by over 40% of Fortune 100 companies.AnyLogic models enable analysts, engineers, and managers to gain deeper insights and optimize complex systems and processes acro

7、ss a widerange of industries.Multimethod modeling environmentDevelop simulation models using all three modern methods:Simulation in the cloudApply cloud technologies and transform your simulation model into a decision-sup- port tool for day-to-day operations. With the AnyLogic Cloud secure web platf

8、orm, run simulation models online, use rich cloud- based experimentation capabilities, col- laborate on models, and deliver simulationresults fast.Digital twin development environmentBuild digital replicas of real-world systems using AnyLogic modeling software. Digital twins allow for simulating sys

9、tem behavior, tracking performance metrics, and predicting potential downtime or maintenance needs. AnyLogic digital twins are currently used byindustry leaders worldwide.Discrete event modelingAgent-based modeling System DynamicsThe three methods can be used in any combination to simulate businesss

10、ystems of any complexityIndustry-specific librariesMake use of a unique suite of industry-spe- cific modeling tools in one package, at no additional cost. They help simulate complex operations in detail in logistics, transporta- tion, rail, manufacturing, oil & gas, health- care, and other business

11、processes and services.Animation and visualizationEasily design visually attractive simula- tion models with 2D and 3D animation. The results make concepts and ideas easier to understand, verify and communicate. Dy- namic visualization makes complex simula- tion models self-explanatory.AI and simula

12、tionDesign detailed and robust virtual environ- ments for training and testing AI algorithms using cloud-based models. Once connected with machine learning platforms, models leverage powerful cloud computing, which helps neural networks learn faster and more efficiently.03DIGITAL TWIN, MANUFACTURING

13、DIGITAL TWIN OF GAS TURBINE FLEETOPERATIONS01SIEMENSDIGITAL TWIN, MANUFACTURINGOVERVIEWThe Excel-based forecasting tools used by Siemens at that time failed to perform efficiently under the new circumstances. The volume of data was too much to manage in Excel and the results were not clear enough to

14、easily identify bottlenecks and quickly find solutions.As the deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) systems grows, the conceptof something physical having a virtual avatar is increasingly important.Digital twins represent a virtual avatar of a physical system. These digital representations are buil

15、t using the domain knowledge of subject matterexperts as well as data collected from sensors on-board the system.In short, the company needed a more powerful method for resolving itsgas-turbine fleet operation issues. The main needs were to: Predict business performance and forecast KPIs of interest

16、 to inform decision-making;The Agent-based Turbine Operations & Maintenance (ATOM) model is a digital twin simulation model developed by decisionLab Ltd and Siemens. The digital twin emulates the global maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) operations of Siemens aero-derivative gas turbine division.

17、Driven by live data already available within the supply chain, the model provides the capability to use sophisticated simulation and data-analytics methodologies to optimize the fleet operations of Siemens, enabling better data-driven decision-making to improve productivity and efficiency incustomer

18、 operations and asset management. Evaluate investment options run “what-if” scenarios to quickly understand where best to invest.Siemens wanted to visualize the whole production and maintenance process, including the supply-chain logistics, which are critical to the system. With the ability to visua

19、lize the results of multiple “what-if” scenarios, in order to communicate the business case for several investment options and enable better decision-making, both inside thecompany and outside, with clients.PROBLEMSOLUTION To meet the challenges, decisionLab and Siemens proposed a digitaltwin - ATOM

20、. The ATOM digital twin exploits the emergence of digital technologies across Siemens engineering and manufacturing businesses. It uses the vast quantities of data that is available to integrate customers,supply chain, production, and maintenance in order to improve productivityand efficiency in cus

21、tomer operations and asset management. At its coreSiemens produces a wide range of industrial turbines and recently acquired the Rolls-Royce energy gas turbine and compressor business. Following this, Siemens introduced a new aero-derivative gas turbine (SGT-A65)based on the acquired assets.With the

22、 new turbine not being wholly developed in house, its production and maintenance produced multiple new challenges, including unforeseenin-service performance and support issues.05DIGITAL TWIN, MANUFACTURINGATOM achieves this by modelling the detailed intricacies of customer operations, maintenance f

23、acility operations, engine characteristics, andsupply-chain logistics across the whole fleet and operational cycle.Representing the entire system, the digital twin provides great analytical capabilities. Users can examine any aspect of the system and run what- if scenarios to explore all the interde

24、pendencies. Such a system would easily identify bottlenecks and enable decision-making that considers theoperation of the system as a whole.The development of digital twin requires a highly complex simulation environment, and developers will often use a software development approach. This requires g

25、reat flexibility from the simulation software to successfully model different levels of business processes and manage varying complexity. For this reason, decisionLab chose AnyLogic as thecore simulation tool.In this case, a core part of the model was made from many independent elements and using ag

26、ent-based modeling it was possible to represent the necessary details. To build the model, the developers captured datarelating to the following aspects of Siemens gas turbine fleet operations: Customer operations (in what conditions, e.g.temperature, customers use the turbines) Maintenance facility

27、 operations (both main maintenancefacilities were considered) Engine characteristics (different failure modes associatedwith particular engine components)06DIGITAL TWIN, MANUFACTURING Supply-chain logistics (as customers arelocated all over the world)divided virtually into its constituent functional

28、 layers and provide a system engineering-based approach to model development. This approach allows concurrent users to interact with the model in different ways, and to use different data sets, and also enable the development team to adopt a continuous development and deployment approach without dis

29、ruption areinforcement learning element is planned.This is represented in the agent interaction diagram, which defines thecomplexity of the digital twin environment.In addition to the agent-based modelling approach, the digital twinincorporated a modular architecture, which allowed the system to beI

30、n collaboration with Siemens future phases of development couldinclude the following:A MODULAR ARCHITECTURE OF THE DIGITAL TWINAGENT INTERACTION DIAGRAM07DIGITAL TWIN, MANUFACTURING To move from an Excel database to a centralizeddatabase containing all Siemens systems anddatabases, for optimized dat

31、a storage and processing; To deploy the model in the cloud, so multipleusers can access it; To make it possible to use ATOM as a demonstrationtool, for work with customers (i.e. to continue improving the visualization part); To add a reinforcement learning capability to optimize the dynamic decision

32、-making process within the simulation environment and present an optimal policy that Siemensmight adopt business investment decisions.OUTCOMEDecisionLab have created a sophisticated digital twin that captures all the functionality required by Siemens. The ATOM-twin simulation model, representing the

33、 entire fleet operations of Siemens aero-derivative gasturbines, enables its users to: capture and forecast system KPIs visualize fleet and maintenance facility operations identify bottlenecks in the system08DIGITAL TWIN, MANUFACTURINGTHE ATOM-TWIN SIMULATIONMODEL run both quick what-if and detailed

34、 scenarios to aid investment decision-makingRead case study onlineWatch case study presentation videoAlthough a very complex simulation model, decisionLab delivered a user- friendly and interactive system, usable across the organization. Bothupper-management and analysts can use ATOM to easily meet

35、their needs.09SUPPLY CHAINSEND-TO-END SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOLUTION02MICROSOFTSUPPLY CHAINSPROBLEMformed part of Microsofts “One Devices Supply Chain” (1DSC) solutiondesigned to achieve:Microsoft is one of the largest tech companies in the world, with a sales revenue of over 90 billion US dollars

36、. More and more of its sales revenue now come from selling physical devices, and this exposes the company to an accompanying level of complexity and uncertainty. The company has over 30,000 products with a large variation in life cycles, more than 600 suppliers, 13 contract manufacturers, and 52 dis

37、tribution centersdistributing products into 191 countries. One set of Planning, Execution and Improvement rules for managing all products and order fulfillment strategieswithin Microsofts supply chain. One system (SAP) in which to implement these rules.A critical part of the project was for Goldratt

38、 Research Labs to develop a self-configurable Supply Chain simulation model using AnyLogic to validate the likely operational and financial improvements that would beachieved from the TOC based solution design before going live.In 2015, Goldratt Research Labs was contracted by Microsoft to design, v

39、alidate, pilot and implement anend-to-end Supply Chain Managementsolution based on Theory of Constraints (TOC) best practices. ThisPROJECT DEVELOPERDr. Alan Barnard and his Goldratt Research Labs (GRL) simulation team lead by Dr. Andrey Malykhanov are very passionate about helping organizations answ

40、er two simple but important questions: “How much better can you do?” and “How best to do it?”. They work with leading organizations from around the globe, in both private and public sectors, among them: BHP Billiton, Cargill, TATA Steel, ABB, Daiwa House, UtahGov., and Larsen & Toubro.GRL uses robus

41、t research methods and advanced technologies like Simulation modeling, Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems to identify how much better organizations can do if they switched from “l(fā)ocal optima” to the “global optima” rules of Theory of Constraints (TOC). GRL is also a spearhead for new TOC bas

42、ed research and development, to develop newknowledge and applications of the ever-growing TOC body of knowledge.11SUPPLY CHAINSPROJECT DESCRIPTION The project started in September 2015. The Theory of Constraints principles and best practices were used by GRL to design a world-class supply chain for

43、Microsoft. During the pilot stage, the Theory of Constraints based SCM rules were tested in an AnyLogic simulation model to validate that it willresult in better operational and financial performance (e.g. less shortages12What is Theory of Constraints (TOC)?According to Dr. Barnard, Theory of Constr

44、aints is called “a theory” for a good reason. Kurt Lewin (1890 1947) one of the pioneers in organizational psychology famously said that “There is nothing as practical as agood theory”. In Science, we call something a “theory” if it provides a good explanation of why something is important and usefu

45、l. Theory of Constraints, as a Theory of Management, explains why knowledge of aSystems constraint, is important and useful in helping managers make five challenging decisions in any complex system: How to define ambitious but achievable goals? Knowing the constraint of a system determines the theor

46、etical maximum this system can produce. How to decide where to focus? The real constraint in any social system is limited management attention simply because the demand on our attention will always exceed our available attentionavailable. Knowing where the constraint is in a system helps managers de

47、cide where to focus their limited attention to achieve morewith less in less time. How to judge the system impact of changes? Knowing the impact of a change on the system constraint provides a “shortcut” for judging the impact of any changes on the whole system. How to decide what rules to use? In t

48、urns out that the rules needed to optimize a system constraint making sure that the constraint is never blocked, starved, overproducing, or wastingcapacity in other ways is also the rules to optimize the performance of the whole system. How to decide when to change the rules? If the constraint moves

49、, the rules must change. If you have a production constraint, then running long batches on the bottleneck machine to save setups make sense. But when the constraint moves to the market, this rule has to be changed to ensure capacity is not wasted or sales lost producing things the market dont want.T

50、heory of Constraints creator, Dr. Eli Goldratt, and TOC practitioners like Dr. Barnard and his team from GRL, has over the past 30 years, identified a number of often counter-intuitive but global optima rules that can result in step-change improvements in managing operations, supply chains and proje

51、ct environments.A number of these TOC best practice rules for managing supply chains was used in the core design of the Microsoft end-to-end SCM solution and additional innovations in Supply Chain planning and execution wasdeveloped to cater for unique complexities within the Microsoft landscape.SUP

52、PLY CHAINSand surpluses resulting in more revenue, higher profitability with lower inventory). By mid-December 2015, the first set of TOC derived rules for Build-to-Order (BTO) went live within Microsofts SAP system. In 2016, additional rules for Build-to-Availability (BTA), “Assemble or Customize-

53、to-Order” (ATO) and “Build-to-X” (BTX) were tested in implemented. Thewhole project was finished in less than 9 months. Improve flow: how to systematically improve flow. With the S&T Tree, the Why, What and How of each of these rules were defined to help all stakeholders understand the assumptions b

54、ehind the rules and to find the simplestway to implement these within standard SAP.SOLUTIONA Strategy-and-Tactic tree (S&T Tree) was developed to show exactly what rules were required to achieve the desired performance improvement and objectives of the 1DSC initiative. As per figure below, six rules

55、needed to be changed: Order fulfillment strategy: should it be make-to-order (BTO), assemble-to-order (ATO), make-to-availability (BTA),or build-to-X(where X is launch target quantity) (BTX). ATO/BTO buffering: how to quote reliable lead timesto BTO/ATO customers. BTA/BTX buffering: how to ensure we

56、 have sufficientstock of parts and finished goods.DESIGNING TOC-BASED SCM SOLUTION Release control: how to control the release of BTO/ATO, BTX and BTA orders. Shared priority: how to achieve a Single Priority Systemthroughout supply chain.13SUPPLY CHAINSThe AnyLogic simulation model that was develop

57、ed to test and verify theoperational and financial performance of the new rules. Sensitivity analysis to test how sensitive certain parameters are to the outcomes.Supply Chain and Product Data is extracted from the SAP system into an Excel file to fully model and configure the Microsoft global supply chain. Additionally, data of actual customer demand and actual daily on-hand-stock over the modeling period were extracted to allow the model to compare simulated (using the new TOC-based r