1、第六單元ALS-IScriptTanya: Hello, everyone. Welcome to your Tuesday Lunch Break. I mTanya Rivero. We begin today with the latest census report out this morning, showing the US population is expected to grow significantly older over the next several decades. By 2050 it is projected to reach 83.7 million,

2、almost double the number of elderly in 2012. The baby boomers are largely behind this shift, as the first wave began turning 65 a few years ago. And the racial face of the elderly is changing, with many more Hispanics and non-Whites in the mix. By 2050, the U.S. is expected to have the largest older

3、 population of all developed nations with the exception of China and India, the worldst popul ous tcwoounmtroies.Joining us now to break this all down is Daniel Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Libertarian think-tank, the Cato Institute. Hi Daniel, thanks for being with us.Daniel: I m glad to be on

4、the program.Tanya: So, Daniel, this report concludes that this dramatic population shift is expected to drain resources from areas like education and shift them toward areas like health care. I think that s probably an obvious shift, but what are some of the other changes in store?Daniel: From an ec

5、onomic perspective, the big thing we need to look at is weo have a re going tworsening worker-dependent ratio. What does that mean? It simply means that as our population ages, there are going to be more and more old people relying on that 16 to 64 working age group, to produce the goods and service

6、s our economy needs. Tha t s a big challenge. Setting aside government policy and everything else, an aging population, whether it s in the US, Japan, or in Europe, is going to be a significant burden for a lotf economies moving forward.Tanya: So what does that mean specificall y? Let s talk about M

7、edicare, is there any chance it will last?Daniel: That s the real challenge. Now let s bring government policy into the mix. When you havetax and transfer programs like Medicare, like Social Security, like Medicaid, and a lot of these programs explicitly funnel big benefits to the elderly, and your

8、population is aging; that a srecipe for fiscal crisis. I mean, we all probably remember in school, learning about a population pyramid. The assumption was always that you dhave a lot more workers and a small group of retirees. Well, we re moving from a population pyramid tosomething more like a popu

9、lation cylinder, and tax and transferring government programs simply don t work. You re going to have too many people riding in the wagon, anndot enough people pulling the wagon because the tax rates that you would have to impose on those workers would be crippling to the economy.Tanya: And that cyl

10、inder can almost get top heavy, which would certainly mean it might topple. Now let taslk a lit tle bit about the younger workers. Is there any hope for this group? What do they have to look forward to?Daniel: Well right now, they re already paying 15.3% payroll taxes, betweeianl Soeccurity and Medi

11、care, that s the so called FICA, part of theiyrcphaeck. Of course, they only see half of it because the other half is paid on their behalf by their employers. But, itIn order to try to bail out Social Security and Medica re, you re talking about those tax rates in effect doubling. And of co urse, th

12、at s a huge burden on these younger workers ata time when economic growth is likely to slow down because so many people are goingto be leaving the labor force. Which, to me, is why we' reacing a slow-motion train wreck. That ' s the bad news. The good news, it' s slow motion.Tanya: Right

13、.Daniel: If we do real genuine retirement reform now, we can avoid the crisis 15, 20, 25 years down the road.Tanya: All right, we ' ll all haveet to work. Daniel Mitchell of the Cato Institute. Thank you for that.Daniel: Thank you.ALS-IIScripts :Many don ' t like the idea of spending their l

14、ater years in a retirement home and more and moreare seeking alternatives.s old town, We have our( 're like a farThis group of people founded a cooperative and bought a house right in Bern to the market and the river. On Saturdays, residents and friends gather for lunch. apartments and can conti

15、nue organizing our own lives. But on the other hand, we this house. People know each other and help and look afte one another. ”Swiss life expectancy is among the highest in Europe. At the same time, the fertility rate is low. This results in one of the largest aging populations in the world. But wh

16、at does this mean for society, and how happy are the elderly in this country? Francois Hoepflinger is an expert on aging demographics. According to his studies, a greying society to a large extent has positive effects.“Thereare more grandparents which are healthy and can engage with young children,

17、and surprisingly, how active the ' youngoId are! We have a real revolution of active seniors, elderly.There are increasing costs in health systems, in pensions. But on the other side, all the people are consumers. That ' s one of the largest and most -incdeasing consumer markets.”Indeed, by

18、and large, the elderly in Switzerland have a high standard of living. Social securityfor the elderly is better than it is for young families. But what about social contact?Pro Senectute is Switzerland's biggest organizatiopeoplpirtg maintain life quality intheir old age as well as giving advice

19、on financial and health issues. Pro Senectute offers a wide range of activities for seniors.Pensioner Marie Therese Sieber works as a volunteer for the foundation two days a week. For the former school teacher, retirement wasn' e asy in the beginning. Now she' used to her new weekly structur

20、e and enjoys having a lot of spare time.“In Switzerland, we are aware that there are a lot of elderly and there are a lot of opportunitiesfor them. For instance, I can travel at low cost or I can join organized hiking trips. When people get lonely in their old age, such activities are important for

21、meeting others. However, people should be able to stay in their own surroundings as long as possible. From what Ie env,eosnce people have tomove to an old people s home, they no longer have to deal with things and they become lethargic.At the cooperative in Bern, as well as personal apartments, ther

22、e s a communal kitchen, aroom and even a meditation room.For Hilde Thalman, this is one of the reasons she decided to live here.“ Together we organize up to four events a year, cultural, social or political events. With today life expectancy, we have to assume that we still have several years left.

23、So it s imnpt otortkaeep doing something. ”“ I wouldn t want to become as old as our parents holed up in their hous“esT.hat s easy for us ”to say. We never had a house like our parents.”This home is one of four such places in Bern.Today there are more choices of how to spend one laster years than th

24、ere were in recent decades. As long as people remain healthy, there s still a lot they can get out of life. According toFrancois Hoepflinger s studies, this is a reversal of the situation forty yeaor,s wahgen the elderly were a marginal group, mostly poor and unhappy. They even have the edge on the

25、young.“ People who are retired have a much higher life satisfaction than younger generations. And we found that, in fact, in many instances, the social problems we have in Switzerland are more problems of young people than of the elderly.”SLSWord Bankluxury adj. 奢侈的 hospice n. 救濟院，收容所bad off 經(jīng)濟條件差的

26、shrink v. 收縮，使縮小 facility n. 設(shè)施，設(shè)備 1. bad off 經(jīng)濟條件差的e.g. The widower was bad off every day when he was left alone. 這個鰥夫喪偶之后，經(jīng)濟每況愈下。She can no longer spend money since her family is bad off. 自從她家道中落之后，她就再也沒錢用了。2. shrink v.收縮，使縮小e.g. In the next few years, the nation' s wealth will either stagnate

27、 or shrink.未來幾年，該國經(jīng)濟要么停滯不前，要么大幅縮水。China ' central bank has raised interest rates five times since mid-2010 to try to shrink inflation.從2010年中期中國央行已經(jīng)五次提高利率以減少通漲。3. facility n.設(shè)施，設(shè)備e.g. This facility will need to be available for the disaster recovery effort.災(zāi)后重建工作需要這種設(shè)施。Before it was decommission

28、ed in 1992, the facility was used to build and test nuclear reactors.在1992年退役之前，該設(shè)施一直服務(wù)于核反應(yīng)堆的修建和測試工作。4. luxury adj.奢侈的e.g. I don ' t believe that luxury goods are needed for a high quality of life.我認(rèn)為高品質(zhì)的生活并不需要奢侈品。European-style villas and luxury apartments are being built behind the clubeld. &#

29、39; s main polo 1俱樂部后面的球場正在修建歐式別墅和高檔公寓。5. hospice n.救濟院，收容所e.g. The Netherlands has hospice units of two to four beds in nursing homes rather than hospitals. 荷蘭的救濟院有24床的養(yǎng)老套房，但是醫(yī)院卻沒有這樣的套房。In the small rural community, hilly terrain separating the local AIDS clinic and hospice makes communication diff

30、icult.在一些農(nóng)村地區(qū)，山區(qū)地形使艾滋病診所和救濟院很分散，這造成了交通的困難。Scripts90-year-old Lu Jicai and his 85-year-old wife Ma Huayun lead a happy life at home. The elderly couple is taken care of by their 60-year-old daughter Lu Min g who ' s also retired.“Their health is still good. So we haven' t had to do mscho Oorb

31、am oyfi so wedon ' t have many concerns. ”Ms. Lu lives with her parents, keeping them company and making sure they' re well fed. Butshe relies on a nurse to come in weekly to check blood pressure and help them exercise.There ' s a whole generation people like Ms. Lu, who work with their

32、brothers and sisters to care for their aging parents.Almost 90% of the elderly who need care receive it from their fami ly. But as China ' s aging population grows, the number of family members to care for loved ones is shrinking, thanks to the country ' e-child policy.For every one child, t

33、here will be two parents to care for. Ms. Lu has only one daughter who will marry, and she and her husband will then have four parents to watch over.“Say if my daughter finds a boyfriend who ' s also a single child. After they marry, they' ll haveboth sides ' elderly parents by their sid

34、e. They certainly won' t be able to look after us. So Iplanned for them to take care of us in the future.”Ms. Lu isn ' t alone. By 2030, Chinas elderly population is expected to reach 235 million, that nearly 75% of the U.S. population. So, many Chinese families will have to consider nursing

35、 homes.China today has only enough facilities to house 2% of seniors. Luxury nursing homes are new in China, and few can afford the $1600 a month fee, an amount way over most people pesnsions.Cheaper alternatives like the Chun House Community Center offer meals and basic care for up to $800 a month,

36、 but many have long wait lists and services are limited. Cost is one reason why 60-year-old Su Yapa has chosen hospice care for her parents. Sontang Hospice, a private center in Beijing, costs as low as $450 a month.“ After she got sick, she stayed in the hospital for more than 70 days with a high t

37、emperature.But because we were breaking the limits of our insurance coverage, we couldn t take care of her athome, so we chose to bring her here. ”Sontong wasn t alwayeslcwome. The nursing home has been forced out of neighborhoods over the past three decades, many people fearing the idea of nursing

38、homes and death. But with more people aging, the idea of giving people a place to live before they die is becoming more acceptable.“We didn t feel as if we were welcomed before. We were forced to move around. The fina l time we moved, it felt the community was in support of us, helping us move into

39、the neighborhood. ”Most won t be as lucky as Liu and Ma, who celebrate 60 years fomarriage together under thecare of their daughter. With fewer children to look after their parents, the elderly could prove to be a burden on China s rising generation.Words and Expressions1. bad off: economically poor; in a disadvantageous position 經(jīng)濟條件差的 e.g. The widower was bad off every day when he was left alone.這個鰥夫喪偶之后，經(jīng)濟每況愈下。She can no longer spend money since her