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GlobalTVMarketDemandForecastinPostCOVIDEra
?GfK2021 1
GlobalDemand
?GfK2021 2
2021LCDdemandoutlook:215.0munits-8.2%y/y
y/ydeclinesareexpectedinmostdevelopedregionsin2021,followingstrongdemandin2020aslockdownsclosedsocialvenues,whilstallowingshopping
tocontinue,resultedinincreasedTVviewership&TVpurchasing;
Emergingmarketsarenegativelyimpactedbyhighpanelpricing,limitinglow-endunitpurchasingandnegativeeconomicimpactsofCOVID;
GlobalTVUnitSell-outbyTechnology
300m
259m,-6.1%252m,-2.6%253m,+0.5%
LCD
PDP
CRT
OLED
LCDy/y
250m
240m,-5.4%
239m,+6.5%
+5.4%
230m,+4.4%
+5.1%
229m,-4.4%
227m,+3.0%
224m,-1.3%
229m,-0.8%229m,+0.2%
221m,-3.7%
221m,-7.6%
+3.8%
+6.2%
+2.9%
200m
-0.1%
-1.2%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.3%
150m
-2.7%
-2.9%
232.3m
234.2m
226.0m
223.4m
223.1m
223.2m
220.5m
220.6m
220.7m
220.5m
216.9m
215.0m
100m
209.8m
-8.2%
50m
0m
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021F
2022F
2023F
2024F
?GfK2021
3
2021LCDAvg.SizeOutlook:49.3”(+1.2”y/y)
Mixofmajorsizesegments:
32”20.2%(-2.2ppsy/y);43”14.7%(+1.2ppsy/y);50”11.6%(+1.3ppsy/y)
55”14.0%(+1.1ppsy/y);65”7.7%(+1.4ppsy/y);≥75”5.5%(+1.1ppsy/y)
GlobalLCDTVaveragesize,areaandunit,y/y
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Unity/y
Areay/y
Avg.Size
51.6''
53''
51.1''
50.5''
51''
+14.3%
49.3''
49''
48.1''
+8.7%
+8.8%
+8.3%
46.4''
47''
+6.4%
+6.2%
44.7''
45''
1%
+3.8%
+3.
+2.9%
43.6''
+1.4%
+1.6%
42.3''
43''
-0.1%
-1.2%
-1.1%
-1.2%
41''
-2.9%
-3.6%
39''
-8.2%
37''
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021F
2022F
2023F
2024F
?GfK2021 4
InventoryChangeIndex
?GfK2021 5
GlobalLCDTVPanels
?GfK2021 6
RegionalDemand
?GfK2021 7
L.AmericaLCDDemand:L.Americaisexpectedtogrowin2Q21duetoheavynegativitycausedbylockdownsin2020acrosstheregion,offsetbypartiallockdownsin2021asCOVIDcontinuestoheavilynegativelyimpactcountriese.g.Brazil;In2H21,thenegativeeconomicimpactduetoCOVIDandpoliticalprotestsinColombiaareexpectedtoresultinsofteningdemandex-BlackFriday(OCT-21);Further,thehighcomponentpriceforceslow-endTVpricingup,low-enddemandisexpectedtoaggressivelysofteny/y;
L.AmericaLCDTVUnits
+1.4%?-6.7%
America
L.America2019
LCDDemand
Argentina
6%
Other
37%
Brazil
39%
Peru
5%Colombia Chile
8% 5%
?GfK2021
2019 2020 2021-Current
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
8
L.AmericaLCDSizeMigration&ASP
Highmixof32/43”segmentsandlow-endmodelsduetolowpurchasingpower;
NegativeeconomicsituationhasresultedinincreaseinTVpricing,forcingconsumerstooptformore32/43”&paymoretodoso,esp.inArgentina,resultinginsoftersizemigrationin2021except4Q21promotions;
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
L.AmericaLCDDemandSizeMix
60"-69"
55"-59"
50"-54"
45"-49"
40"-44"
30"-34"
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
49''
48''
47''
46''
45''
44''
43''
42''
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
L.AmericaLCDDemandPriceBandMix
USD1500+
USD500-1500
<USD500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
USD500
USD450
USD400
USD350
USD300
USD250
USD200
?GfK2021 9
W.EuropeLCDDemand:W.Europeisexpectedtoslightlydeclinein2Q21asstrengthduetoEURO2021isoffsetbynegativeimpactsfromtighteninglockdownmeasuresinFrance&GermanyandtheslowreopeningofsocialvenuesintheUK;Adoubledigity/ydeclineisexpectedin2H21duetostrengthin2020;Additionally,oncevaccinationreachesabove60%ofthepopulation(GB53%,EU31%),itisexpectedthatmostrestrictionswillbelifted,resultinginincreasedtravelandreducedTVconsumption;
W.EuropeLCDTVUnits
+15.8%?-10.0%
Europe
W.Europe2019
LCDDemand
Other
France
15%
22%
Spain
Germany
20%
11%
Italy
GreatBritain
14%
19%
?GfK2021
2019 2020 2021-Current
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10
W.EuropeLCDSizeMigration&ASP
Smalleravg.sizecomparedtootherdevelopedmarkets(N.America/Dev.Asia)duetorelativelysmalllivingspace;
Brandsareexpectedtopushpremiumfeatures(e.g.miniLED,DolbyVisionIQetc.)amidsthighpanelpricingtoimprovemargins,resultinginhigherASP;
Sizemigrationisexpectedtoacceleratein2H21duetosofteroveralldemandwiththemixofpremiummodelsincreasing;
W.EuropeLCDDemandSizeMix
W.EuropeLCDDemandPriceBandMix
100%
90%
60"-69"
50''
100%
90%
USD1500+
USD650
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
55"-59"
50"-54"
45"-49"
40"-44"
30"-34"
20"-24"
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
49''
48''
47''
46''
45''
44''
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
USD500-1500
USD600
USD550
USD500
<USD500
USD450
USD400
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2020
2021
?GfK2021 11
C.EuropeLCDDemand:Lockdownsandhighpricingnegativelyimpactedtheregion,resultinginy/ydeclinein1Q21;
2Q21isexpectedtogrowy/yduetolackoflockdownsandpromotionsduringEURO2021,withthebiggestimpactexpectedinPoland&Hungaryduetohighfootballinginterestandcompetingteams;2H21isexpectedtodeclineslightlyy/yastheliftingoflockdownsasvaccinationratesincreaseresultinlowerpurchasinginsaturatedmarkets,offsetbyexpectedcontinuedexpansioninunsaturatedmarkets(e.g.Russia)withrecoveryinconsumerconfidence;
+9.9%?-5.5%
Europe
C.Europe2019
LCDDemand
Czechia
5%
Hungary
4%
Other
Ukraine
21%
Poland
6%
12%
Romania
10%
Russia
42%
C.EuropeLCDTVUnits
2019 2020 2021-Current
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
?GfK2021 12
C.EuropeLCDSizeMigration&ASP
CISmarket(avg.size:42”;ASP:USD348)vsex-CISmarket(avg.size:47”;ASP:USD477)*2021YTD
ASPisexpectedtobelargelyflatin2021ashighcomponentcostandcurrencydepreciationinRussiakeepspricinghigh;
Sizemigrationin2021largelycomesfromcountrieslikePolandandCzechRepublic;
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
C.EuropeLCDDemandSizeMix
60"-69"
55"-59"
50"-54"
45"-49"
40"-44"
30"-34"
20"-24"
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
46''
45''
44''
43''
42''
41''
40''
39''
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
C.EuropeLCDDemandPriceBandMix
USD1500+
USD500-1500
<USD500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
USD450
USD400
USD350
USD300
USD250
USD200
USD150
USD100
USD50
USD0
?GfK2021 13
MEALCDDemand:MEAdemandisexpectedtogrowy/yin2Q21duetolackoflockdownsandamorestableoilprice,withnationse.g.SaudiArabia,theUAE&SouthAfricaexpectedtogrow;ThiswasslightlyoffsetbythenegativityinTurkeyduetolockdowninAPR/MAY-21;2H21islikelytodecliney/yasthenegativeeconomicimpactsofCOVIDareexpectedtoresultinsofterex-promotionaldemand,especiallyincountrieslikeTurkeywhichareseeingcurrencydepreciations,posingarisktostrongBlackFridaydemand;
+2.7%?-1.2%
MEA
MEA2019
LCDDemand
Israel
Egypt
3%
Morocco
13%
4%
Other
41%
Pakistan
11%
SaudiArabia
Turkey
6%
14%
SouthAfrica
7%
MEALCDTVUnits
2019 2020 2021-Current
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
?GfK2021 14
MEALCDSizeMigration&ASP
Agrowingmarketingwithimprovingavg.sizebuteconomicnegativityduetoCOVIDhasresultedinsoftersizemigration;
Avg.sizeisexpectedtoremainfairlylowuntillatterpartoftheyearwhentheeconomyrecovers;
ASPisexpectedtobelargelystablewithinaboutUSD40-50ofitscurrentlevelsashighpanelcostsnegativelyimpactpricingresultinginconsumersoptingalsoformoretier-2brands;
MEALCDDemandSizeMix
MEALCDDemandPriceBandMix
100%
47''
100%
USD1500+
60"-69"
90%
46''
90%
USD500-1500
55"-59"
80%
80%
50"-54"
46''
70%
70%
45"-49"
60%
45''
60%
50%
45''
50%
40"-44"
40%
40%
44''
<USD500
30%
30%
44''
20%
20%
30"-34"
10%
43''
10%
0%
20"-24"
43''
0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
2020
2021
USD440
USD420
USD400
USD380
USD360
USD340
USD320
USD300
?GfK2021 15
ChineseMainlandLCDDemand:Chinesemainlanddemandisexpectedtodecliney/yin2Q21-3Q21ashighpricingnegativelyimpactsunitsdemandonlow-endmodels,withbrandsshiftingfocustoverylargesizedTVs(65”orabove)/morepremiumfeatures;In4Q21ascomponentpricingisexpectedtodecline,low-endpricingwillproportionatelyimprove,with11/11expectedtobepositivey/y;
-14.0%?-1.5%
ChineseMainland
Global2019
LCDDemand
ChineseMainlandLCDTVUnits
2019 2020 2021-Current
7.0m
6.0m
5.0m
4.0m
Chinesemainland
21%
3.0m
2.0m
Other
79%
1.0m
0.0m
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
?GfK2021
16
ChineseMainlandLCDSizeMigration&ASP
Brandsareexpectedtoincreasefocusonlarge-sizedLCDandpremiummodelsin2021toimproveprofitabilityamidsthighpanelpricing;
IncreaseinTVpricingfrombrandsandretailersareexpectedtoresultinsignificanty/ygrowthinASP;
Aggressivesizemigrationin2021withstrongmixofthe60-69”segment,whilst32/43/55”arelikelytolosesharesy/y;
Significantgrowthrateisexpectedtobeseeninthe75”segment;
ChinesemainlandLCDDemandSizeMix ChinesemainlandLCDDemandPriceBandMix
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
58''
100%
USD1500+
90%
56''
60"-69"
80%
USD500-1500
54''
70%
52''
60%
55"-59"
50%
50''
50"-54"
40%
<USD500
45"-49"
48''
30%
40"-44"
20%
46''
10%
30"-34"
44''
0%
20"-24"
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
2020
2021
USD550
USD500
USD450
USD400
USD350
USD300
?GfK2021 17
Emg.AsiaLCDDemand:Demandisexpectedtogrowaggressivelyin1H21duetoextremenegativityduetolockdownsin2020,especiallyinIndia,thoughrecentnewsonCOVIDinthecountryposesarisktothispositivity;4Q21isexpectedtodecliney/yduetostrongpost-lockdowndemandin2020,whilst2021isexpectedtobesofterduetotheworseningsituationinIndia,with4Q21purchasingpowerlikelytobelowerduetonegativeeconomicimpactsofCOVID;
-5.3%?+3.6%
Emg.Asia
Emg.Asia2019
LCDDemand
Other
10%
Vietnam
15% India
47%
Thailand
11%
Malaysia
Indonesia
14%
3%
Emg.AsiaLCDTVUnits
2019 2020 2021-Current
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
?GfK2021 18
Emg.AsiaLCDSizeMigration&ASP
? Strongmixofthe32”segmentdrivenbyIndiaduetohighVATtaxonTV,resultinginsmallavg.sizebutrelativelyhighASPinthecountry;
Vietnam&Thailandfocusmoreon50/55”4KTVs;
Highpricing&softpurchasingpowerisexpectedtopushconsumerstooptforsmallermodels,reusltinginsoftersizemigrationin2021;
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Emg.AsiaLCDDemandSizeMix
60"-69"
55"-59"
50"-54"
45"-49"
40"-44"
30"-34"
20"-24"
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
43''
42''
42''
41''
41''
40''
40''
39''
39''
38''
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Emg.AsiaLCDDemandPriceBandMix
USD1500+
USD500-1500
<USD500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
USD400
USD380
USD360
USD340
USD320
USD300
USD280
USD260
USD240
USD220
USD200
?GfK2021 19
JapanLCDDemand:Japandemandisexpectedtogrowy/yasextensionstothestateofemergencyoccur,limitingmovementandincreasingTVviewershipuntil3Q21;4Q21isexpectedtodeclineheavilyy/yduetotheendofOlympics-relatedpromotionsandtheliftingoflockdownmeasures;
+14.6%?+2.2%
Japan
Global2019
LCDDemand
Japan
2%
Other
98%
JapanLCDTVUnits
2019 2020 2021-Current
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
?GfK2021
20
JapanLCDSizeMigration&ASP
? Smallavg.sizecomparedtootherdevelopedcountriesasconsumersfocusmoreonqualityinsteadofsize,resultinginahighmixofpremiummodels;
Brandsincreasedpricingon2021lineupswithmoreconsumersoptingfor24/32”models,resultingindeclinesinavg.size&ASPin1Q21;However,itisexpectedtoimprovein2H21drivenbypromotions;
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
JapanLCDDemandSizeMix
60"-69"
55"-59"
50"-54"
45"-49"
40"-44"
30"-34"
20"-24"
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
46''
45''
44''
43''
42''
41''
40''
39''
38''
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
JapanLCDDemandPriceBandMix
USD900
USD1500+
USD850
USD800
USD500-1500
USD750
USD700
USD650
USD600
<USD500
USD550
USD500
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2020
2021
?GfK2021 21
Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDDemand:Dev.Asiademandisexpectedtobenegativethroughout2021aslockdowndemandremainedaggressiveacrossmuchoftheregionsin2020duetohighawarenessandstrongbordercontrols,withonlySingapore&NewZealandseeingaggressivedeclinesin2020;Thisresultsintoughcompswith2020anddemandbeingpulledforward,long-termouroutlookforDev.Asiaisthatofalargelystablehighavg.size,highASPmarket;
+14.1%?-10.0%
Dev.Asiaex-Japan
Dev.Asia2019
LCDDemand
Taiwan,China
17%
Australia
37%
SouthKorea
29%
HongKong,ChinaSingaporeNewZealand7%
4% 5%
Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDTVUnits
2019 2020 2021-Current
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
?GfK2021 22
Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDSizeMigration&ASP
Strongmixofpremiummodelsduetohighpurchasingpower,resultinginhighavg.size&highASPoftheregion;
Aggressivesizemigrationin2021drivenbyanimprovingmixofSouthKorea(avg.size:60”;ASP:USD1400+)*2021YTDduetosofteningdemandinTaiwan,China&Australiafollowingaggressivegrowthin2020;
Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDDemandSizeMix Dev.Asiaex-JapanLCDDemandPriceBandMix
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
70"-79"
60"-69"
55"-59"
50"-54"
45"-49"
40"-44"
30"-34"
20"-24"
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
59''
100%
58''
90%
57''
80%
56''
70%
55''
60%
54''
50%
53''
40%
52''
30%
51''
20%
50''
10%
49''
0%
USD1500+
USD500-1500
<USD500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
2021
USD1100
USD1050
USD1000
USD950
USD900
USD850
USD800
USD750
USD700
USD650
USD600
?GfK2021 23
TVTechnology
?GfK2021 24
2021OLEDdemandoutlook:5.9munits+25%y/y
GrowthtocontinuetomainlyfocusonWEUduetosmalleravg.sizethanN.America/Dev.Asia,highpurchasingpowerandhighbrandcompetition;
55”remainsthefocus,whilst65/77”remainlargelyunaffordableformostconsumers;
48”pricingremainslargelythesameas55”,resultinginlimiteddemand;
If65”pricingdeclines,OLEDmixinN.America/Dev.Asiaisexpectedtoimprove,posingarisktoexistinghigh-end65”LCDTVs;
Globalex-NAOLEDDemandbySize
GlobalOLEDSell-OutbyRegion
2500000
48"
55"
65"
77"
88"
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
9.0m
8.0m
7.0m
6.0m
5.0m
4.0m
3.0m
2.0m
N.America
C.Europe
Emg.Asia
4.7m
0.4m
3.4m 0.5m
0.4m
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