2

3海外算力鏈量價齊升：光模塊量價齊升，服務(wù)器出貨加快45Bloomberg

246525750223

152187315

314323

273373680401611636527830100015420623928144580011%23%2%-13%-17%63%57%37%43%20%52%34%68%28%16%4%18%58%83%

80%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%020040060080010001200202020212022202320242025E谷歌META亞馬遜微軟谷歌-YoYMETA-YoY亞馬遜-YoY微軟-YoY6Wind

697.5995.01366.71568.626.3%29.8%34.1%34.7%40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%1800.01600.01400.01200.01000.0800.0600.0400.0200.00.02021202220232024光模塊單價（元）光模塊毛利率（%）72.694.1101.8228.929.6%8.2%124.8%20%0%60%40%140%120%100%80%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02021202220232024光模塊收入（億元）YoY7Wind

28.432.530.385.914.4%-6.7%183.4%-50%0%50%100%150%200%100.090.080.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.02021202220232024點對點光模塊收入（億元）YoY0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%20212022202320241Q25新易盛中際旭創(chuàng)天孚通信8數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，天孚通信公司公告，新浪財經(jīng)，網(wǎng)易新聞

供應(yīng)鏈公司產(chǎn)品臺積電天孚通信波若威Corning（康寧）Senko（扇港）FabrinetFoxconn（富士康）LumentumCoherentSUMITOMO（住友）3D光引擎芯片與Switch芯片的加工與先進封裝FAU、光引擎FAU、光纖配線盒、保偏光纖準(zhǔn)直器光纖光纜、shuffle

devices、MMC連接器MPC連接器交換機的組裝與生產(chǎn)交換機的組裝與生產(chǎn)激光器激光器激光器芯片SPIL（日月光子公司）

封測 資料來源：英偉達官網(wǎng)，各公司官網(wǎng)，國金證券研究1177461,6557449209601,1831,57616.9%8517.2%21863.8%67.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200020202021202220232024光無源器件收入（百萬元）光有源器件收入（百萬元）公司收入YoY10

-50%0%50%100

%150

%200

%250

%300

%350

%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00202

1202

2 202

3Wind

Lightcounting202

4營業(yè)收入（億元）凈利潤（

億元）營業(yè)收入YOY（%）近利潤YOY（%）50.00%45.00%40.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%20202021202220232024 1Q2025太辰光致尚科技仕佳光子博創(chuàng)科技11Wind

3.153.634.403.616.061.592.172.241.852.311.812.212.201.922.190.160.160.200.170.180.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00202

0202

12022202

3202

4光芯片及器件線纜材料室內(nèi)光纜其他業(yè)務(wù)12650

Group Wind

ifind

2.37.10.11.01.03.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.0CY23CY28Insidedatacenter

opticalInsidedatacenter

AECDCI02468101214020406080100120202020212022202320241Q2025研發(fā)費用（百萬元）研發(fā)費用率（%）13SemiAnalysis

IDCEET

China

14

工業(yè)富聯(lián)廣達緯創(chuàng)營業(yè)收入（億）5839128139826綜合費用率2.653.484.30毛利率7.287.858.01凈利率7.677.363.35存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)51.6153.457.89EET

China國產(chǎn)算力鏈蓄勢待發(fā)：建議關(guān)注交換機、液冷板塊15

圖：2025年阿里、騰訊、字節(jié)資本開支預(yù)計將有雙位數(shù)增長資料來源：Bloomberg，IDC，c114-350%-250%-150%-50%50%150%250%400350300250200150100500阿里巴巴阿里巴巴-YoY百度百度-YoY騰訊騰訊-YoY資料來源：愛分析，中研網(wǎng)圖：交換機等網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備采購約占總資本開支的11服務(wù)器69.0%網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備11.0%光模塊等存儲設(shè)備

5.0%6.0%安全設(shè)備9.0%17

650

Group

IDC18%17%13%17%42%49%57%61%82%83%87%83%58%51%43%39%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2021202220232024

2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E以太網(wǎng)

IB99.24101.42125.05222.15222.22217.682.2%0.0%-2.0%-5%0%5%10%15%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0202220232024中國以太網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)中心交換機市場規(guī)模（億元）數(shù)據(jù)中心交換機同比中國以太網(wǎng)非數(shù)據(jù)中心交換機市場規(guī)模（億元）非數(shù)通交換機同比23.3% 25%20%18

650

GroupISCT’24ODCC

ETH-XGPU

Scale-up

OISA公司超節(jié)點技術(shù)/方案核心參數(shù)阿里ALinkSystem

(ALS)騰訊ETH-X開放超節(jié)點字節(jié)自研超節(jié)點架構(gòu)支持UALink協(xié)議，單柜百TB/s級吞吐原生支持內(nèi)存語義，顯存共享達TB級256卡Scale

Up訓(xùn)練成本降低38%128卡推理性能提升40%2025年計劃投入200億美元建設(shè)海外AI基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施火山引擎數(shù)據(jù)中心部署超萬卡集群中國移動OISA協(xié)議超節(jié)點（“國

單節(jié)點集成64張國產(chǎn)AI芯片

芯國連”集群） 互連帶寬896GB/s，交換容量51.2T 19

ifindc114ODCC30.828.8>4077.976.2<670.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.02022IDC

AI20232024新華三非數(shù)據(jù)中心交換機收入（億元）新華三數(shù)據(jù)中心交換機收入（

億元）48.3%52.8%50.4%39.8%43.3%41.3%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%202120222023新華三交換機毛利率銳捷交換機毛利率20

IDC66.7%33.3%互聯(lián)網(wǎng)數(shù)通交換機占比非互聯(lián)網(wǎng)數(shù)通交換機占比16.718.039.68%120%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%45.040.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.0202220232024銳捷網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)據(jù)中心交換機收入（億元）YOY（%）備菲菱科思技術(shù)儲

華為、新華三高端外包400G量產(chǎn)800G開發(fā)21

Ofweekwind100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%202220232024網(wǎng)通業(yè)務(wù)-AP系列其他主營業(yè)務(wù)網(wǎng)通業(yè)務(wù)-DSL其他網(wǎng)通業(yè)務(wù)-PON系列數(shù)通業(yè)務(wù)移動通信業(yè)務(wù)22

IDC24

Wind0.250.740.693.204.41%14.27%12.41%33.37%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%3.532.521.510.502021202220232024新能源收入（億）收入占比（%）高瀾股份液冷

技術(shù)數(shù)據(jù)中心液冷字節(jié)跳動12U