目錄摘要 、緒論1.1研究背景近年來，隨著社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，國民生產(chǎn)總值的不斷提高，人們的生理需求已經(jīng)基本得到滿足，越來越多具有前瞻性的居民選擇將自己的積蓄進(jìn)行投資活動，以規(guī)避財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險，實(shí)現(xiàn)家庭財(cái)富的保值或增值。在中國資本市場制度改革開放的提速下，投資渠道與產(chǎn)品也呈現(xiàn)多元化趨勢，資金的雙向流動也變得愈加方便快捷，其中基金成為了近幾年以來備受關(guān)注的明星投資渠道，規(guī)模穩(wěn)步增長。到2023年6月30日為止，公募基金的規(guī)模首次超越銀行理財(cái)，達(dá)到了27.37萬億元，成為整個財(cái)富管理行業(yè)的主力軍[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"ptqDRaKE","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super1\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"1","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":170,"uris":["/users/local/iYeMDWch/items/SHIBXU3Q"],"itemData":{"id":170,"type":"webpage","title":"2024公募基金投資展望|開篇：12張圖讀懂公募基金市場_財(cái)富號_東方財(cái)富網(wǎng)","URL":"/news/20240131152101528327490","accessed":{"date-parts":[["2024",4,6]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}1]。圖1-1公募基金規(guī)模變化圖數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，省心研究院Figure1-1ChangesintheSizeofPublicFunds在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步增長的背景下，人均可支配收入在不斷提升，居民人均消費(fèi)支出水平也實(shí)現(xiàn)了持續(xù)性提高，以2023年數(shù)據(jù)為例，全國居民人均消費(fèi)支出26796元，比2022年實(shí)際增長9.0%數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局。隨著消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的不斷拓展，消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的持續(xù)升級，人們的消費(fèi)渠道變得更加多元化，對于發(fā)展型和享受型消費(fèi)的需求也日益提升。信息技術(shù)的發(fā)展更是帶動了“新零售”模式的興起，支付寶、微信等第三方支付平臺正經(jīng)歷飛速發(fā)展，線上融合線下的消費(fèi)渠道、短視頻+直播的消費(fèi)模式都已成為不容小覷的消費(fèi)新路徑，這進(jìn)一步拓展了中國消費(fèi)市場的可能性。數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局然而，投資與消費(fèi)從來不是二者擇其一的關(guān)系，而是密不可分且相互影響的。投資從供給側(cè)出發(fā)，以資本積累的形式促進(jìn)當(dāng)期和未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，提升消費(fèi)的可能性；消費(fèi)則是從需求側(cè)出發(fā)，帶動了生產(chǎn)和再投資[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"pRp0DXQ6","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super2\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"2","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":177,"uris":["/users/local/iYeMDWch/items/VPMPZUXH"],"itemData":{"id":177,"type":"webpage","title":"盛松成：消費(fèi)與投資并不是相互排斥的關(guān)系--經(jīng)濟(jì)·科技--人民網(wǎng)","URL":"/n1/2023/0220/c1004-32627195.html","accessed":{"date-parts":[["2024",4,6]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}2]。本研究重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的角度，也是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究中常提到的，投資市場的表現(xiàn)會進(jìn)一步影響人們的消費(fèi)行為，消費(fèi)-財(cái)富關(guān)系被強(qiáng)調(diào)為股市影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要渠道之一，尤其是在經(jīng)歷巨大的消極或積極的股票市場沖擊后（Alex,etal.,2022）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"YLbgi63E","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super3\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"3","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":103,"uris":["/users/local/iYeMDWch/items/GV596F4J"],"itemData":{"id":103,"type":"report","abstract":"Usinganovelrepresentativesampleofdigitalpaymentdata,weobservearobustU-shapedrelationshipbetweenindividualinvestors’monthlyentertainment-relatedconsumptionandstockmarketreturnsintheprevious...","language":"en-US","title":"InVictoryorDefeat:ConsumptionResponsestoWealthShocks","title-short":"InVictoryorDefeat","URL":"/working-paper/in-victory-or-defeat-consumption-responses-to-wealth-shocks/","author":[{"family":"Alex","given":"Imas"},{"family":"Tse-Chun","given":"Lin"},{"family":"Yan","given":"Luo"},{"family":"Xiaohuan","given":"Wang"}],"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2023",12,23]]},"issued":{"date-parts":[["2022",10]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}3]。大量研究從財(cái)富角度對人們的邊際消費(fèi)傾向進(jìn)行了研究和估計(jì)，如在良性投資帶來的財(cái)富效應(yīng)的作用下，持有債券的家庭將在多個季度內(nèi)持續(xù)提振消費(fèi)增長（Dynan&Maki,2001）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"acsh61l1","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super4\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"4","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":105,"uris":["/users/local/iYeMDWch/items/IKVIMP28"],"itemData":{"id":105,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"TheFederalReserveBoardofGovernorsinWashingtonDC.","container-title":"FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries","issue":"23","language":"en","page":"1-44","source":"","title":"DoesStockMarketWealthMatterforConsumption?","author":[{"family":"Dynan","given":"KarenE."},{"family":"Maki","given":"DeanM."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2001",1,5]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}4]，投資者對股息形式而非資金升值形式的股票收益有更高的消費(fèi)傾向（Baker,Nagel,&Wurgler,2007）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"vDYwJ5i1","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super5\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"5","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":180,"uris":["/users/local/iYeMDWch/items/SQUB6BX2"],"itemData":{"id":180,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Classicalmodelspredictthatthedivisionofstockreturnsintodividendsandcapitalappreciationdoesnotaffectinvestorconsumptionpatterns,whilementalaccountingandothereconomicfrictionspredictthatinvestorshaveahigherpropensitytoconsumefromstockreturnsintheformofdividends.Usingtwomicrodatasets,weshowthatinvestorsareindeedfarmorelikelytoconsumefromdividendsthancapitalgains.IntheConsumerExpenditureSurvey,householdconsumptionincreaseswithdividendincome,controllingfortotalwealth,totalportfolioreturns,andothersourcesofincome.Inasampleofhouseholdinvestmentaccountsdatafromabrokerage,netwithdrawalsfromtheaccountsincreaseone-for-onewithordinarydividendsofmod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2、文獻(xiàn)綜述與假設(shè)提出2.1投資與消費(fèi)的相關(guān)研究居民用于消費(fèi)的財(cái)富主要有兩個來源：一是財(cái)富估值的變動，也就是居民在投資活動中的收益，常見的投資活動有購買房產(chǎn)、股票和基金；二是由較穩(wěn)定的收入結(jié)余形成的儲蓄。20世紀(jì)90年代，由于發(fā)達(dá)國家股票市場快速發(fā)展，國內(nèi)外學(xué)者逐漸開始開展居民投資與消費(fèi)的關(guān)系這一研究，而目前的主要研究關(guān)注點(diǎn)是由股市波動產(chǎn)生的財(cái)富效應(yīng)。股市的財(cái)富效應(yīng)是指由于股市波動產(chǎn)生股票價格的漲跌，使投資者的持有財(cái)富發(fā)生變化，從而引起其消費(fèi)的增加或減少。財(cái)富效應(yīng)的相關(guān)研究源于Keynes（1936）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"gDcA8Uw0","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super7\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"7","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/YLMIEbzS","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/ZMIQD4MP"],"itemData":{"id":1,"type":"webpage","title":"JohnMaynardKeynes(1936)TheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney-Contents","URL":"/het/texts/keynes/gt/gtcont.htm","accessed":{"date-parts":[["2024",4,7]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}7]提出的流動性偏好理論，該理論指出居民投資會通過財(cái)富效應(yīng)來影響消費(fèi)。Poterba（2000）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"Zfw4MAM6","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super8\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"8","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/vehT2NkA","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/NC842CYQ"],"itemData":{"id":3,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Thispaperexploresthelinkbetweenchangesintheaggregatevalueofcorporatestockandchangesinconsumerspending.Itpresentsdataonthedistributionofcorporatestockownershipbasedonthe1998SurveyofConsumerFinances.Italsousestime-seriesevidenceonthecomovementofstockmarketwealthandvariouscategoriesofconsumerspendingtocalibrate\"thewealtheffect.\"Itconcludesthatintheyearafterachangeinstockmarketvalues,consumerspendingislikelytorisebybetweenoneandtwocentsforeachdollarincreaseinthevalueofcorporatestock.","container-title":"JournalofEconomicPerspectives","DOI":"10.1257/jep.14.2.99","ISSN":"0895-3309","issue":"2","language":"en","page":"99-118","source":"","title":"StockMarketWealthandConsumption","volume":"14","author":[{"family":"Poterba","given":"JamesM."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2000",6]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}8]基于消費(fèi)者財(cái)務(wù)調(diào)查的公司股權(quán)分布數(shù)據(jù)，進(jìn)行股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)的考察與研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)在股票市值變化的一年內(nèi)，消費(fèi)者持有的股票價格每增加1美元，消費(fèi)者支出會增加1-2美分。Gan（2010）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"wTTbdI2o","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super9\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"9","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/2epjC796","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/NDI342WJ"],"itemData":{"id":38,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Thisarticleusesalargepaneldatasetthattracksthehousingwealthandcreditcardspendingof12,793individualsinHongKongtostudytherelationshipbetweenhousingwealthandhouseholdconsumption.Iidentifyasignificanteffectofhousingwealthonconsumption.Apurewealtheffectcanexplainpartofthesensitivity:householdswithmultiplehouseshavemuchstrongerconsumptionresponses.Consistentwitharelaxationofthecreditconstraints,mortgagerefinancingsignificantlyincreaseshouseholds'consumptionsensitivities.However,forthemajorityofthehouseholdsthatdonotrefinance,consumptionsensitivityappearstobeduetoareductioninprecautionarysaving.?TheAuthor2010.PublishedbyOxfordUniversityPressonbehalfofTheSocietyforFinancialStudies.Allrightsreserved.","archive":"Scopus","container-title":"ReviewofFinancialStudies","DOI":"10.1093/rfs/hhp127","ISSN":"1465-7368","issue":"6","page":"2229-2267","source":"Scopus","title":"Housingwealthandconsumptiongrowth:Evidencefromalargepanelofhouseholds","title-short":"Housingwealthandconsumptiongrowth","volume":"23","author":[{"family":"Gan","given":"J."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2010"]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}9]的研究表明，資產(chǎn)價格的上漲會直接增加家庭財(cái)富，這將提高家庭的預(yù)算水平，然后進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)消費(fèi)，這種影響機(jī)制叫做直接財(cái)富效應(yīng)。而MacroDiMaggio團(tuán)隊(duì)（2020）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"wjp25oAf","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super10\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"10","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/NBCCHg4o","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/SS2Y5Z9F"],"itemData":{"id":41,"type":"webpage","title":"StockMarketReturnsandConsumption-DIMAGGIO-2020-TheJournalofFinance-WileyOnlineLibrary","URL":"/doi/full/10.1111/jofi.12968","accessed":{"date-parts":[["2024",4,8]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}10]進(jìn)一步從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)角度探究消費(fèi)如何響應(yīng)股票市場收益的變化，發(fā)現(xiàn)家庭會根據(jù)資本收益和股息收入來優(yōu)化他們的消費(fèi)，其中對于股息收入的反應(yīng)更為靈敏。然而，關(guān)于股市波動的財(cái)富效應(yīng)也存在爭議，有學(xué)者指出股市投資對于居民消費(fèi)的影響有限，甚至不顯著。Lettau和Ludvigson（2001）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"nMsZ2UF5","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super11\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"11","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/C3POQwYU","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/CN8XJ874"],"itemData":{"id":14,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Thispaperstudiestheroleoffluctuationsintheaggregateconsumption-wealthratioforpredictingstockreturns.UsingU.S.quarterlystockmarketdata,wefindthatthesefluctuationsintheconsumption-wealthratioarestrongpredictorsofbothrealstockreturnsandexcessreturnsoveraTreasurybillrate.Wealsofindthatthisvariableisabetterforecasteroffuturereturnsatshortandintermediatehorizonsthanisthedividendyield,thedividendpayoutratio,andseveralotherpopularforecastingvariables.Whyshouldtheconsumption-wealthratioforecastassetreturns?Weshowthatawideclassofoptimalmodelsofconsumerbehaviorimplythatthelogconsumption-aggregatewealth(humancapitalplusassetholdings)ratiosummarizesexpectedreturnsonaggregatewealth,orthemarketportfolio.Althoughthisratioisnotobservable,weprovideassumptionsunderwhichitsimportantpredictivecomponentsforfutureassetreturnsmaybeexpressedintermsofobservablevariables,namelyintermsofconsumption,assetholdingsandlaborincome.Theframeworkimpliesthatthesevariablesarecointegrated,andthatdeviationsfromthissharedtrendsummarizeagents'expectationsoffuturereturnsonthemarketportfolio.","container-title":"TheJournalofFinance","ISSN":"0022-1082","issue":"3","note":"publisher:[AmericanFinanceAssociation,Wiley]","page":"815-849","source":"JSTOR","title":"Consumption,AggregateWealth,andExpectedStockReturns","volume":"56","author":[{"family":"Lettau","given":"Martin"},{"family":"Ludvigson","given":"Sydney"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2001"]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}11]利用美國的宏觀數(shù)據(jù)集來進(jìn)行居民財(cái)富對消費(fèi)的影響，研究了整體經(jīng)濟(jì)消費(fèi)、總體財(cái)富及預(yù)期股票回報(bào)等之間的關(guān)系，其結(jié)果證明，雖然居民確實(shí)從股市中獲得了財(cái)富增加，但對于消費(fèi)的刺激有限，并指出以往傳統(tǒng)的研究對于股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)具有一定高估性。而Ahec?onje團(tuán)隊(duì)（2014）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"1zJWU0Z2","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super12\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"12","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/HvmVaQT0","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/SLY36L7M"],"itemData":{"id":20,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Thisstudyexaminesthelong-andshort-runrelationshipbetweenprivateconsumption,housingwealth,stockmarketwealthandincome.Inordertoassesthisrelationshipempirically,weusepooledmeangroupestimatorsofdynamicheterogeneouspaneldataonasampleof30developedandemergingeconomies.Thesamplecountriesaresegmentedintothreeseparatepanels:adevelopedbank-basedpanel,adevelopedmarket-basedpanel,andanemergingbank-basedpanel.Empiricalestimatessupporttheexistenceoflong-andshort-runstockmarketwealtheffectsinbothgroupsofdevelopedcountries,withtheeffectbeingparticularlystronginthedevelopedmarket-basedcountries.Amoderatelong-runhousingwealtheffectisconfirmedonlyforthedevelopedbank-basedcountries,whileaverystrongshort-runhousingwealtheffectispresentinthedevelopedmarket-basedcountries.Asfarastheemergingcountriesareconcerned,theevidenceissomewhatinconclusive,butitdoesseemtosuggestthatbothwealtheffectsareeffectiveinthelongrun,withhousingwealthbeingmoredominant.","container-title":"EconomicSystems","DOI":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.03.001","ISSN":"0939-3625","issue":"3","journalAbbreviation":"EconomicSystems","page":"433-450","source":"ScienceDirect","title":"Theeffectofhousingandstockmarketwealthonconsumptioninemerginganddevelopedcountries","volume":"38","author":[{"family":"Ahec?onje","given":"Amina"},{"family":"?eh?asni","given":"Anita"},{"family":"Vizek","given":"Maru?ka"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014",9,1]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}12]將研究對象進(jìn)行劃分，得出了股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)在發(fā)達(dá)國家尤為強(qiáng)烈，但在發(fā)展中國家中不太明確的結(jié)論。表明財(cái)富效應(yīng)不顯著的學(xué)術(shù)研究給出的說法是居民消費(fèi)由收入效應(yīng)決定。該效應(yīng)的理論依據(jù)為持久收入假說，該理論認(rèn)為居民的消費(fèi)主要受其長期穩(wěn)定收入的影響，不會以相同方式對待所有的收入變化。Bulmash（2002）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"EZaiaer0","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super13\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"13","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/z4peS7Ep","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/MMBLANKI"],"itemData":{"id":34,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Thisstudyexaminestheexistenceofastockmarketwealtheffectonaggregateprivateconsumptionintheeconomy.Atheoryofinvestor/consumerbehaviorissuggested,inacontextofasymbioticrelationshipbetweentwoquasi-bio-systems.Themodelofferspredictionsaboutlikelyoutcomesincapitalmarketinteractionwiththeunderlyingeconomyingeneralandconsumptioninparticular.Thesepredictionsarevalidatedempirically.Specifically,thepaperfindsthatinvestors/consumersdonotrespondimmediatelytoastockmarketrise(fall).Rather,theywaitatfirstandthereaftergraduallyacceleratetheir'wealthspending'onconsumptiononlyaftertheyareconvincedthatthegainispermanent(avariationofthe'incomesmoothing'thatwassuggestedmanyyearsagobyFriedman(1957)).Thepapersuggeststhatthecapitalmarketsandtheeconomyinteractliketwobio-systemssymbioticallyrespondingtoeachother.Thisstudypresentsevidencethattheconsumptionwealthspendingpeaksatapproximately2.5%ofthestockmarketwealthCUMULATIVEgainintheprevious12-24-monthperiod,withsomeeffectslingeringonupto36months.Forexample,itshowsthatover40%ofthegrowthinconsumerspendingin1999wasattributabletogainsinthestockmarketinpreviousyears,contributingtoastrongGDPinthatyear.?2002ElsevierScienceInc.Allrightsreserved.","archive":"Scopus","container-title":"JournalofSocio-Economics","DOI":"10.1016/S1053-5357(02)00119-1","ISSN":"1053-5357","issue":"1","page":"75-100","source":"Scopus","title":"Anewparadigm:Thewealtheffectofthestockmarketonconsumption,inacontextofinteractingbio-systems","title-short":"Anewparadigm","volume":"31","author":[{"family":"Bulmash","given":"S.B."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2002"]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}13]將股市與經(jīng)濟(jì)視為各自獨(dú)立的系統(tǒng)，證明居民只有在股市獲取了持久收益之后才可能會改變自身的消費(fèi)行為。張帆（2022）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"kqzZMOqx","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super14\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"14","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/OeUqx2G2","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/QHFW899J"],"itemData":{"id":21,"type":"thesis","abstract":"隨著我國股市的快速發(fā)展,股票成為越來越多居民的理財(cái)方式,成為居民重要的資產(chǎn)和投資工具,與我國居民的日常生活息息相關(guān)。在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型背景下,股市波動對居民消費(fèi)的影響逐漸受到重視。2020年,我國迎來了中國資本市場建立30周年,也是在2020年,創(chuàng)業(yè)板開放注冊制,同時科創(chuàng)板取消漲跌幅10%的限制,改為20%。我國股票市場的發(fā)展在國家政策的引導(dǎo)下交易秩序良好,科創(chuàng)板支持科技創(chuàng)新效果逐步顯現(xiàn)。同時,在今年國內(nèi)外疫情的影響之下,我國提出加快構(gòu)建以國內(nèi)大循環(huán)為主體、國內(nèi)國際雙循環(huán)相互促進(jìn)的發(fā)展格局,注重提升我國居民的消費(fèi)水平。在此背景下,研究我國股票市場波動對居民消費(fèi)的影響具有重大現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先在理論層面分析了股票市場影響居民消費(fèi)的三個方面,即收入效應(yīng)、投機(jī)效應(yīng)和風(fēng)險效應(yīng)。在收入效應(yīng)中,先回顧了經(jīng)典的西方消費(fèi)理論,在此基礎(chǔ)上,將財(cái)富這個變量引入到持久收入理論和生命周期理論中,研究了股市對于居民消費(fèi)影響的方式及三種路徑;其次,分析了投機(jī)效應(yīng),定義了引起投機(jī)行為的變量并與消費(fèi)行為相結(jié)合;最后,在風(fēng)險效應(yīng)的研究中,首先分析股票市場本身存在的風(fēng)險,結(jié)合資本資產(chǎn)定價模型,判斷在風(fēng)險存在的情況下居民的最優(yōu)消費(fèi)選擇,之后研究股票市場對居民消費(fèi)風(fēng)險分擔(dān)的作用。本文選取2010年1月至2020年12月共132期的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)作為研究對象,通過建立SVAR模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,研究我國股票市場波動對居民消費(fèi)的影響。由于我國股票市場的參與者大多數(shù)都是城鎮(zhèn)居民,所以我們采取城鎮(zhèn)社會消費(fèi)品零售總額代表消費(fèi)水平,選取滬深300指數(shù)和中小板指數(shù)來反應(yīng)我國股票市場的波動情況,并選取了股市的換手率和波動率等指標(biāo)對應(yīng)不同的影響途徑。通過協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)分析以及方差分解等,反應(yīng)各個變量之間的長期關(guān)系。通過實(shí)證分析,研究結(jié)果表明:中國股票市場的波動對我國居民消費(fèi)存在著一定的影響,但短期內(nèi)表現(xiàn)為負(fù)向影響,之后會產(chǎn)生正向影響并逐漸減弱至消失。這說明我國股票市場不僅存在著財(cái)富效應(yīng),也存在著擠出效應(yīng)。同時會發(fā)現(xiàn),滬深300指數(shù)相比于中小板指數(shù)對居民消費(fèi)的影響更大。但總體來看,我國居民的消費(fèi)依然受可支配收入和自身消費(fèi)習(xí)慣的影響,股票市場還未能讓消費(fèi)者形成一個穩(wěn)定增長的預(yù)期,所以股票市場波動對消費(fèi)的影響比較微弱。","genre":"碩士","language":"zh-CN","note":"DOI:10.27140/ki.ghbbu.2021.000266","publisher":"華北電力大學(xué)(北京)","source":"CNKI","title":"股票市場波動對居民消費(fèi)的影響研究","URL":"/kcms2/article/abstract?v=YoFA4grnCX6AI0U48wBzwNnURkfNAXHagacKJQvOjah2hPcSc9OJUaF3ZzKIIB3FbHsgK0q_ziFNKQ58ksIzLy-mnNsHkULKDF_RGvIfH4Br8J3dvBrnR4kY7a8SjdrDYfkocfvS2V4ahknJBjIYDw==&uniplatform=NZKPT&language=CHS","author":[{"family":"張","given":"帆"}],"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2024",4,7]]},"issued":{"date-parts":[["2022"]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}14]利用月度時間序列數(shù)據(jù)建立SVAR模型，發(fā)現(xiàn)股市波動短時間內(nèi)會對我國居民消費(fèi)造成消極影響，長期來看會表現(xiàn)出積極影響，但效應(yīng)將隨時間變化而逐漸減弱，最后徹底消失，表明我國居民消費(fèi)受股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)影響較弱，主要仍受可支配收入的影響，并且股市尚未使消費(fèi)者建立其能穩(wěn)定增長的預(yù)期。由此可見，在當(dāng)前該研究領(lǐng)域，不同的研究采用不同的數(shù)據(jù)和方法模型，最終獲得的結(jié)果差異較大。學(xué)者們對于股市投資的財(cái)富效應(yīng)是否存在、如何影響居民消費(fèi)行為以及影響的程度到底有多大，還未達(dá)成共識。2.2消極市場沖擊與購物療法以往傳統(tǒng)的相關(guān)研究及理論基本都是基于投資者是理性人的假設(shè)，因此通常在巨大的消極股市沖擊下，居民往往會減少高風(fēng)險的投資行為及消費(fèi)行為以規(guī)避風(fēng)險。例如胡永剛（2012）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"d9u8ODK5","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super15\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"15","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/EeJfka7f","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/ZQ2WSDRM"],"itemData":{"id":26,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"本文嘗試在消費(fèi)者最優(yōu)選擇模型基礎(chǔ)上，通過引入居民的借貸約束和預(yù)防性儲蓄，推導(dǎo)出能夠檢驗(yàn)股市的財(cái)富效應(yīng)、信號傳遞效應(yīng)和不對稱效應(yīng)的實(shí)證分析框架，并利用中國的季度數(shù)據(jù)考察中國股市變動對居民消費(fèi)的影響。與國內(nèi)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)所得結(jié)論不同，本文的研究表明：如果不僅考慮股票價格變動的財(cái)富效應(yīng)，而且考慮其信號傳遞效應(yīng)，那么中國股票市場對城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)存在著較為明顯的影響。分析也表明，如果用工資而不是人均可支配收入度量人力資本回報(bào)，中國股票市場同樣存在正的財(cái)富效應(yīng)，且這種財(cái)富效應(yīng)具有明顯的不對稱性，反映經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面變化的股價變動對中國居民消費(fèi)具有長期影響，投機(jī)因素引起的股價變動對中國居民消費(fèi)的影響甚微。","archive_location":"北京萬方數(shù)據(jù)股份有限公司基金項(xiàng)目::上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)“211工程”重點(diǎn)學(xué)科建設(shè)項(xiàng)目;(B801):上海市重點(diǎn)學(xué)科建設(shè)項(xiàng)目;:感謝審稿人意見,文責(zé)自負(fù)","container-title":"經(jīng)濟(jì)研究","issue":"3","language":"chi","note":"ISBN:0577-9154","page":"115-126","title":"股票財(cái)富、信號傳遞與中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)","volume":"2012","author":[{"family":"胡永剛","given":""},{"family":"郭長林","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2012"]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}15]使用消費(fèi)者最優(yōu)選擇模型，利用中國經(jīng)濟(jì)信息網(wǎng)的宏觀季度數(shù)據(jù)，在考慮財(cái)富效應(yīng)的前提下引入了信號傳遞效應(yīng)，結(jié)果證明股市波動和居民消費(fèi)之間存在顯著同向影響。然而，隨著對于相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的研究日益增加，股市投資對于消費(fèi)的影響機(jī)制除了傳統(tǒng)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)、收入效應(yīng)外，逐漸涌現(xiàn)出與傳統(tǒng)理論相矛盾的非理性經(jīng)濟(jì)行為的理論與實(shí)證研究。目前，已有學(xué)者指出，在股市震蕩下，遭遇損失的投資者反而會增加他們的消費(fèi)，其中一個代表性的理論支撐為購物療法。購物療法又稱零售療法（RetailTheory），是指面對消極事件時，人們傾向于通過消費(fèi)或購物的方式來調(diào)節(jié)及緩解負(fù)面情緒。Kang和Johnson（2011）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"pI9A5s9B","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super16\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"16","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/CIoP2tbK","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/U3S8NXBW"],"itemData":{"id":24,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Retailtherapy(RT)isdefinedasshoppingtoalleviatenegativemoods.Theobjectivesofthisresearchwereto1)analyzetheconceptualfoundationofRTand2)developandvalidateascalemeasuringRT.Retailtherapyscaledevelopmentconsistedofthreephases:initialitemgeneration,scalepurification,andscalevalidation.43initialscaleitemsweregeneratedbasedoninterviewfindingsfrompreviousstudiesandincludedinthesurveyquestionnaire.258surveyresponsesfromthegeneralpopulationwereusedforscalepurificationthroughwhichafourfactormeasurementmodelwasdevelopedwith22items.Therefinedmeasurementmodelwasvalidatedusingaseparatesampleof272.Ourstudyprovidestheoreticalcontributionsinconsumerbehaviorresearchbyconceptualizingandoperationalizingretailtherapy.AvalidandreliableRTscaleservesasafoundationtobroadenquantitativeinquiryintoshoppingbehaviorsdrivenbymoodalleviativemotives.","container-title":"ClothingandTextilesResearchJournal","DOI":"10.1177/0887302X11399424","ISSN":"0887-302X","issue":"1","note":"publisher:SAGEPublicationsInc","page":"3-19","title":"RetailTherapy:ScaleDevelopment","volume":"29","author":[{"family":"Kang","given":"Minjeong"},{"family":"Johnson","given":"KimK.P."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2011",1,1]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}16]的研究指出，零售療法可以劃分為代償性消費(fèi)和情緒緩解性消費(fèi)。代償性消費(fèi)的動機(jī)主要解釋為“當(dāng)一個人感到他們無法通過主要滿足方式來滿足自己的需求或欲望時，他們就會尋求并使用另一種滿足方式來代替”。在代償性消費(fèi)行為中，焦慮、抑郁、沮喪、孤獨(dú)、壓力等負(fù)面情緒會引起代償性消費(fèi)的心理缺陷（TanaseG.C.，2018）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"VdrDZCXn","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super17\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"17","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/EeKgRo2J","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/X6ZXDHW5"],"itemData":{"id":54,"type":"article-journal","container-title":"RomanianDistributionCommitteeMagazine","page":"29-33","title":"RetailTherapyasaBehavioralActoftheModernConsumer","volume":"9","author":[{"family":"Tanase","given":"GeorgeCosmin"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}17]，而人們使用零售療法是為了通過消費(fèi)來彌補(bǔ)這些感知到的心理缺陷（Kang&Johnson，2011）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citationID":"XGOYDLhg","properties":{"formattedCitation":"\\super16\\nosupersub{}","plainCitation":"16","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":"R6jqA6Ih/CIoP2tbK","uris":["/users/local/Okag0jSJ/items/U3S8NXBW"],"itemData":{"id":24,"type":"article-journal","abstract":"Retailtherapy(RT)isdefinedasshoppingtoalleviatenegativemoods.Theobjectivesofthisresearchwereto1)analyzetheconceptualfoundationofRTand2)developandvalidateascalemeasuringRT.Retailtherapyscaledevelopmentconsistedofthreephases:initialitemgeneration,scalepurification,andscalevalidation.43initialscaleitemsweregeneratedbasedoninterviewfindingsfrompreviousstudiesandincludedinthesurveyquestionnaire.258surveyresponsesfromthegeneralpopulationwereusedforscalepurificationthroughwhichafourfactormeasurementmodelwasdevelopedwith22items.Therefinedmeasurementmodelwasvalidatedusingaseparatesampleof272.Ourstudyprovidestheoreticalcontributionsinconsumerbehaviorresearchbyconceptualizingandoperationalizingretailtherapy.AvalidandreliableRTscaleservesasafoundationtobroadenquantitativeinquiryintoshoppingbehaviorsdrivenbymoodalleviativemotives.","container-title":"ClothingandTextilesResearchJournal","DOI":"10.1177/0887302X11399424","ISSN":"0887-302X","issue":"1","note":"publisher:SAGEPublicationsInc","page":"3-19","title":"RetailTherapy:ScaleDevelopment","volume":"29","author":[{"family":"Kang","given":"Minjeong"},{"family":"Johnson","given":"KimK.P."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2011",1,1]]}}}],"schema":"/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"}16]。情緒緩解性消費(fèi)的動機(jī)是“鼓勵人們通過消費(fèi)讓自己感覺更好并修復(fù)自身的負(fù)面情緒”（Kang&Johnson，2010）[ADDINZOTERO_ITEMCSL_CITATION{"citatio