Globaleconomicconditionssurveyreport:Q3,2025.

im

TheAssociationof

Accountantsand

Financialprofessionals

inBusiness

Executivesummary.

CautionevidentamongfinanceprofessionalsinQ32025,aspreviousimprovementinconfidencestalls

Confidenceamongglobalaccountantsdeclinesslightly.TheACCAandIMAGlobalEconomicConditionsSurvey

(GECS)suggeststhatglobalconfidenceeasedslightlyinQ32025(seeChart1),followingsomerecoveryinQ2.

Confidenceremainsatalowlevelhistorically.TherewasalsoasecondconsecutivedeclineintheNewOrders

Index,whichisatitslowestlevelinthepost-pandemicperiod,albeitwithoutbeingparticularlydepressedbyhistoricalstandards.Therewerealsodeclinesinthe

CapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindices.TheformerisatthebottomendoftherangeofreadingsithasregisteredsincetheaftermathofRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.

TheEmploymentIndexisatquitealowlevelhistorically,

reflectingsluggishjobmarketsinanumberofeconomies.Confidenceamongchieffinancialofficers(CFOs)declinedagain(seeChart15).Itismeaningfullybelowitshistoricalaverage1buthasbeenloweronanumberofoccasionsinthepast,includingasrecentlyasQ42024.

Chart1GECSglobalindicators

Index

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OrdersIndex

EmploymentIndex

ConfidenceIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2015–25)

‘AllourkeyglobalindicatorsdeclinedbyvaryingdegreesinQ32025.’

1Themedianisusedtocalculatetheaverages.

ConfidencerosequitesharplyinNorthAmericaand

AsiaPacificbutfellbackinWesternEurope.There

wasastrongriseinconfidenceinNorthAmericainQ3

(seeChart2),aidedinpartbyanotherimprovementinsentimentamongU.S.-basedaccountants.Nevertheless,confidenceintheregionremainsatalowlevel,and

therewasquitealargedropintheforward-lookingNewOrdersIndex,whichisatitslowestsincetheheightof

thepandemicinQ22020.TheCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindicesalsospeaktosignificantcautiononthepartoffirms.ConfidencealsoexpandedstronglyinAsiaPacific,reversingtheQ2decline.Theimprovementmayreflectvariousfactors,includingtheresilienceof

theglobaleconomyandsomedeclineintariff-relateduncertainty.Bycontrast,confidencefellquitesharplyinWesternEurope,amidalargedeclineintheUK.FearsaboutlargetaxrisesintheupcomingBudgetarelikelyweighingonsentimentinthelatter.

Globalcostpressuresroseandremainelevated

inadvancedeconomies.TheproportionofWestern

Europeanaccountantsreportingincreasedoperating

costsrosesharplyandremainsextremelyelevated

historically.Costpressuresappearveryheightenedin

theUK.TheyrosemodestlyinNorthAmericaandremainonthehighsidehistorically(seeChart5).

Economicpressurescontinuetodominaterisk

perceptionsamongaccountantsglobally,closely

followedbygeopoliticaluncertainty.Cybersecurity

wasalsorankedhighly,reflectingitssystemicreach

acrosssectorsandregions.Openresponsesreveala

criticalpoint:cyberriskisnolongerconfinedtoIT–itisagovernanceandculturalchallenge.

Accountantsremaincautious,andtheGECSpoints

totheriskofsomeslowinginglobalgrowth.Theglobaleconomyprovedmoreresilientthanexpectedinthefirsthalfof2025,despitethemajordisruptionstointernationaltrade.AllourkeyindicatorsdeclinedbyvaryingdegreesinQ3,withconfidenceremaininglowandtheNewOrdersIndexnowatitsweakestsinceQ22020.Whilethe

readingsdon’tnecessarilyindicatethatamajorslowdownisimminent,theynonethelesspointtotheriskofsome

slowinginglobalgrowthoverthenextfewquarters.

DevelopmentsintheU.S.economyandpolicy,aswellasinternationaltradeandgeopolitics,remainkeyareasof

uncertaintyforthecomingmonths.

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2025Executivesummary2

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,20251.Globalandregionalanalysis3

1.Globalandregionalanalysis

ConfidenceamongglobalaccountantsdeclinedslightlyinQ32025andremainsatalowlevelbyhistoricalstandards.

Thereweresignificantdifferencesattheregionallevel.

Amongthemajoreconomicregions,confidencerosequitesharplyinNorthAmericaandAsiaPacificbutfellbackmeaningfullyinWesternEurope(seeChart2).

ConfidenceremainsatlowlevelsinNorthAmericaand

WesternEuropebutisslightlyaboveitshistoricalaverageinAsiaPacific.StockmarketgainsandsignsofresilienceintheU.S.economy,despiteaweakerjobsmarket,

mayhavecontributedtotheimprovementinsentimentinNorthAmerica,althoughthesharpriseinimport

tariffsandcontinuedpolicyuncertaintyarefactorslikelyinhibitingamorepronouncedrecoveryinconfidence.

Theimprovementinsentimentintheexport-oriented

AsiaPacificregionmayreflecttheresilienceintheglobaleconomy,strongdemandfortechnology-relatedexportsamidtheartificialintelligence(AI)boom,somereduction

Chart2GECSConfidence–changeoverthepastquarter/year,byregion

MiddleEast

Africa

WesternEurope

Global

SouthAsia

AsiaPacific

NorthAmerica

-30-20-1001020Indexpoints

ConfidenceoverthepastquarterConfidenceoverthepastyear

Source:ACCA/IMA(2024–25)

‘ConfidencerosequitesharplyinNorthAmerica

andAsiaPacificbutdeclinedin

WesternEurope.’

intariff-relateduncertainty,andresilientdomestic

demand.AlargefallinconfidenceintheUKwasamajorfactorweighingonsentimentinWesternEurope,amidaweakeconomyandfearoffurtherlargetaxrisesattheupcomingBudgetinNovember.

Lookingatotherregions,2confidencerosequitestronglyinSouthAsiabutremainsmeaningfullybelowitshistoricalaverage.Bycontrast,confidencefellsharplyinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.Itisstillaboveaverageintheformer,butbelowthatinthelatter,althoughnotmateriallysoineither.

TheGlobalNewOrdersIndexdeclinedinQ3(seeChart

3)andisnowatitslowestlevelinthepost-pandemic

period,albeitnotthatfarbelowitshistoricalaverage.Thefallintheforward-lookingNewOrdersIndexraisestheriskofsomeeasinginglobalgrowthovercomingquarters.

Ofthemajorregions,therewasquiteasharpdecline

intheindexforNorthAmerica,itsthirdconsecutive

quarterlyfall.ItisnowatitslowestlevelsincethetroughinQ22020,duringthepandemic,andiswellbelowits

historicalaverage.TherewasalsoanotherdeclineintheNewOrdersIndexforWesternEurope.Itisatarelatively

Chart3GECSOrders–changeoverthepastquarter/year,byregion

MiddleEast

NorthAmerica

Global

WesternEurope

Africa

AsiaPacific

SouthAsia

-15-10-50510

Indexpoints

OrdersoverthepastquarterOrdersoverthepastyear

‘TheGlobalNewOrdersIndex

declinedin

Q3,withquitealargefallin

NorthAmerica.’

Source:ACCA/IMA(2024–25)

2CautionshouldbetakenwiththesurveyresultsforAfrica,theMiddleEast,andSouthAsiaowingtothesmallsamplesizesinQ32025.

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,20251.Globalandregionalanalysis4

lowlevelbythestandardsofthepost-pandemicperiod,butnotsignificantlybelowitsaverage.Bycontrast,therewasaminorriseintheNewOrdersIndexforAsiaPacific.WhileitisdownfromthehighlevelofQ12025,itremainsmoderatelyaboveitshistoricalaverage.

Asregardsinflation,inQ3theproportionofglobal

respondentsreporting‘increasedcosts’rosebyalmost

5percentagepoints(pp)andremainselevatedcomparedwiththesurvey’shistory(seeChart4).Evenso,there

werequitemarkeddifferencesattheregionallevel.

TheproportionofWesternEuropeanaccountants

reportingincreasedoperatingcostsroseby10ppto

76%:closetodoubleitshistoricalaverage(seeChart

5).ElevatedandrisingcostpressuresintheUKwereanimportantcontributor.Meanwhile,theproportionofNorthAmerican-basedaccountantsreportingincreasedcosts

rosemodestly.Afterfallingbacktoitshistoricalaverage

ofaround50%inQ42024,theproportionreporting

increasedcostshasbeeninthe62–63%rangesofarin

2025–likelyowingtothesharpriseinimporttariffs.Thusfar,theupwardpressurefromtariffsonU.S.consumer

priceinflationhasbeenlessthanexpected,butthereis

asignificantriskthatfirmswilltrytopassontheirhighercostsovercomingmonths.InAsiaPacific,costpressureseasedslightlyandremainaroundtheirhistoricalaverage.

Intheotherregions,costpressuresroseintheMiddle

Eastandarenowabovetheirhistoricalaverage.Cost

pressuresalsoincreasedinSouthAsiabutareslightly

belowaverage.InAfrica,theproportionofrespondents

reportingincreasedcostsdeclinedagain,andisnowatitslowestsinceQ12021.Costpressureseased,accordingtoCFOsinQ3(seeChart6)butremainelevatedhistorically.

Chart4Concernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts

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‘Theproportionof

accountantsgloballyreportingincreasedoperatingcosts

remainselevatedbyhistoricalstandards.’

Source:ACCA/IMA(2015–25)

%ofglobalrespondentsreporting‘increasedcosts’Medianoversurveyhistory

Chart5Concernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts

%ofrespondentsreportingincreasedcosts

‘Costpressuresare

extremelyelevatedinWesternEuropeandarealsoquitehighinNorthAmerica.’

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NorthAmericaWesternEuropeMiddleEastAsiaPacificSouthAsiaAfrica

Q32025●Medianoversurveyhistory

Source:ACCA/IMA(2025)

Chart6GlobalCFOconcernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts

%ofrespondentsreportingincreasedcosts

100‘Costpressures

▲CFOs,butremain

80easedinQ32025,60accordingto

onthehighside

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Medianoversurveyhistory/

20一historically.’

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Q32015Q32017Q32019Q32021Q32023Q32025

Source:ACCA/IMA(2015–25)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,20251.Globalandregionalanalysis5

ConcernsgloballythatcustomersandsuppliersmaygooutofbusinessbothroseinQ32025.Bothseriesare

nowmodestlyabovetheirhistoricalaverages,butneitherlooksparticularlyworrisomefromahistoricalstandpoint,atthisstage.Thatsaid,bothareabovelevelstypically

seeninthehalfdecadebeforethepandemicandbearwatchingcloselyovercomingquarters(seeChart7).

Amongthemajorregions,therewerequitenotable

increasesinconcernsthatbothcustomersandsupplierscouldgooutofbusinessinNorthAmerica.Theseries

canbevolatileonaquarterlybasis,butbothnowappearsomewhatelevatedbyhistoricalstandards,albeitwell

belowpandemic-erapeaks.Meanwhile,thelargespikein

concernsthatcustomerscouldgooutofbusinessinAsiaPacificinQ2reverseditselfinQ3,withtheseriesnowonlyjustaboveitsaverage.SimilarconcernsaboutcustomersandsuppliersalsorosemeaningfullyinWesternEurope

andarenowslightlyabovetheirhistoricalaverages.

GlobalproblemsaccessingfinanceandsecuringpromptpaymentrosemodestlyagaininQ3,butbothseriesareatrelativelyfavourablelevelshistorically(seeChart8).Africaistheonlyregionwhereproblemsaccessingfinanceareabovetheirhistoricalaverage.ProblemssecuringpromptpaymentareaboveaverageinWesternEurope,the

MiddleEastandSouthAsia,butnotbymuch.

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Chart7GECSglobal‘fear’indices

Index

‘ConcernsaboutcustomersandsuppliersgoingoutofbusinessroseinQ3.’

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GECS:Indexofconcernaboutcustomersgoingoutofbusiness

GECS:Indexofconcernaboutsuppliersgoingoutofbusiness

Source:ACCA/IMA(2015–25)

StronggainsintheU.S.stockmarketandthefallinthe

U.S.dollaragainstmanycurrencieshavehelpedboost

financialconditionsaroundtheworldoverrecentquarters,despitethemajortradedisruptions.Moreover,theU.S.

FederalReservecutinterestratesinSeptemberforthe

firsttimethisyearandfinancialmarketsexpectatleast

oneadditionalquarterpercentagepointcutbytheendoftheyear.Developmentsinthelabourmarketandinflationwillultimatelydeterminetheextentofmonetaryeasing

overcomingquarters.LooserU.S.monetarypolicyandanyadditionalweakeningintheGreenbackwouldfuel

afurtherimprovementinglobalfinancialconditionsand

provideadditionalspaceforothercentralbankstoreduceinterestrates.

Thatsaid,withtheU.S.stockmarketregisteringnewhighsamidoptimismabouttheeconomicbenefitsofAI,some

institutionssuchastheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),havewarnedthatequityvaluationsareapproachinglevelsreachedduringtheDot-combubble,raisingtheriskofa

sharppricecorrection.Suchaneventwouldclearlybenegativeforglobalfinancialconditions.

Chart8Problemssecuringpromptpaymentandaccessingfinance

‘Globalproblems

accessingfinance

andsecuringpromptpaymentbothrose

modestlyagainin

Q3butneitherserieslooksworryingfromahistoricalperspective.’

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10

%

Q32015Q32017Q32019Q32021Q32023Q32025

GECS:Globalproblemsaccessingfinance

GECS:Globalproblemssecuringpromptpayment

Source:ACCA/IMA(2015–25)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,20251.Globalandregionalanalysis6

NORTHAMERICA

ConfidencerosestronglyinNorthAmericainQ3butremainsatalowlevel

historically(seeChart9).Bycontrast,theNewOrdersIndexregisteredquite

alargedecline,itsthirdsuccessivefall.Theserieshasonlyeverbeenlower

once,inQ22020.TheCapitalExpenditureIndexrosesomewhat,whilethe

EmploymentIndexdeclinedslightly–botharewellbelowtheirhistorical

averages.Meanwhile,theproportionofrespondentsreporting‘Increased

operatingcosts’rosemodestlyandremainsatanelevatedlevel.Thedecline

intheEmploymentIndexfortheU.S.waslargerthanforthewiderregion,

anditisatitssecond-lowestonrecord.Thereisafairamountofuncertainty

surroundingtheprospectsfortheU.S.economy.Thejobsmarkethasslowed,

butGDPgrowthwaslikelysolidagaininQ3.Overall,ourindicatorspointtoquiteachallengingeconomicbackdropandsuggesttheriskisforsomeslowing

ingrowthovercomingmonths.Butwithmonetarypolicysettobecomeless

restrictive,stockmarketsatrecordhighs,andstrengthinAI-relatedinvestmentlikelytocontinue,amajorslowdownisnotacentral-casescenario.

Chart9NorthAmerica

Index

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ASIAPACIFIC

ConfidencerosequitestronglyinQ3,erasingthelossesfromQ2(seeChart

10),andisnowslightlyaboveitshistoricalaverage.Theotherkeyindicesalso

rose,althoughthegainsfortheCapitalExpenditureandNewOrdersindices

wereminor.Thelatterremainsaboveitshistoricalaverage,whiletheCapital

ExpenditureandEmploymentindicesarequitemeaningfullylower.Concerns

aboutoperatingcostseasedslightlyandarejustbelowtheirhistoricalaverage,suggestingscopeforcentralbanksintheregiontoeasepolicyfurther.Overall,giventhatmostcountriesfacesignificantlyhigherU.S.importtariffs,thelatest

resultsarebroadlyencouraging.Thismaybeowingtovariousfactors,includingsomereductionintradepolicyuncertainty,greaterthanexpectedresilienceintheglobaleconomy,androbustAI-relatedinvestmentincountriessuchasthe

U.S.Thatsaid,lessfavourableglobaltradeconditionsprovidedownsiderisksfortheregioninfuture,whichwouldbeexacerbatedbyanymaterialslowingineitherU.S.orChinesegrowth.

WESTERNEUROPE

ConfidencefellsharplyinWesternEuropeandiscurrentlyataverylowlevel

historically(seeChart11).Therewerefallsofvaryingdegreesintheotherkey

indicators,whichareallbelowtheirhistoricalaverages,theCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindicesquitesignificantlyso.Meanwhile,theproportionof

respondentsreportingincreasedoperatingcostsincreasedsharplyandremainsataveryelevatedlevelhistorically,albeitbelowtheirpeakintheaftermathof

Russia’sinvasionofUkraine.SizeabledeclinesinthekeyindicesfortheUK,

whichaccountedforaroundtwo-thirdsofresponses,wereanimportantdriverbehindthedeteriorationinthewiderregionalindices.TheConfidenceand

EmploymentindicesintheUKareawhiskerawayfromrecordlows.FurtherlargetaxincreasesexpectedintheupcomingBudgetarelikelyanimportantfactorweighingoncorporatesentiment,aswellasinflation,whichisarounddoublethecentralbank’starget.

Chart10AsiaPacific

Chart11WesternEurope

Index

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CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2015–25)

Index

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GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,20251.Globalandregionalanalysis7

MIDDLEEAST

ConfidencefellsharplyintheMiddleEastandisnowbelowitshistoricalaverage,albeitnotsignificantly(seeChart12).3TheNewOrderslndexalsoregistered

quitealargedecline,althoughitremainsaboveitsaverage.ThereweredifferingdynamicswiththeCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindices.Theformerrosemateriallyandisatahighlevel,whilethelatterfellquitesharply,butremains

aboveitsaverage.Meanwhile,afterfallingmarkedlyinQ2,theproportionof

respondentsreportingincreasedoperatingcostsrosequitesharplyandis

nowaboveaverage.Overall,thelatestresultswereratherdisappointingand

suggestincreasedcautionamongaccountantsaboutthenear-termprospectsfortheregion.Thatsaid,growthshouldremainsupportedbysolidexpansionsinthenon-oileconomiesinkeycountries,whileanyfurtherU.S.ratecutswouldbebeneficial,giventhatmanyoftheregion’scurrenciesarepeggedtothe

U.S.dollar.GDPgrowthisalsobeingboostedthisyearbytherecoveryinoil

production,althoughlowerpriceswillincreasefiscalpressuresinsomecountries.

SOUTHASIA

ThereweredivergentmovementsinthekeyindicesfortheregioninQ3(see

Chart13).4Therewasasolidriseinconfidence,althoughthiscameaftersteepdeclinesinpreviousquartersanditremainsmeaningfullybelowitshistorical

average.TheNewOrderslndexalsoimprovedsomewhatafteraverylargefallinQ2andisslightlyhigherthanitshistoricalaverage.Thereweresubstantial

falls,however,intheCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindicesfromprevioushighlevels.Ontheinflationfront,theproportionofrespondentsreporting

increasedoperatingcostsrosebutremainsjustbelowitshistoricalaverage.

Overall,thelatestresultswererathermixed.Whiletheindicesarenotespeciallyweak,theyaregenerallyindicativeofacertainamountofcautionamongfirms.GDPgrowthshouldstillremainquitebriskintheregion,however,aslndiais

likelytoremaintheworld’sfastest-growingmajoreconomy.CutsinitsGoodsandServicesTaxandcentralbankinterestratesshouldsupportactivityovercomingquarters,althoughthesteepriseinU.S.tariffscreatesdownsiderisks.

AFRICA

ConfidencefellsharplyinQ32025,althoughthiscomesafteraverysignificantriseovertheprevioustwoquarters(seeChart14).5Smoothingoutthequarterlyvolatility,confidenceappearstobeonanimprovingtrendthisyearandremainsaboveitshistoricalaverage.TheNewOrderslndexdeclinedslightlybutremainsatquiteahighlevel.BoththeCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindices

declinedbyvaryingdegreesbutremainslightlyabovetheirhistoricalaverages.Meanwhile,therewasanothernotabledeclineintheproportionofaccountantsreportingincreasedoperatingcosts,andtheseriesisatitslowestsinceQ12021.ThesharpQ2declineintheproportioncitingthenegativeimpactofforeign

exchangevolatilityalsoheld.Allinall,despitetherecentquarterlyvolatility,ourkeyindicatorsgenerallyseemtopointtosomeimprovementintheeconomicbackdropfortheregionin2025.lndeed,anumberofcountriesarebenefitingfromimprovementsintheinflationarybackdrop,afirmingoftheircurrencies

againstt