目錄一、行情綜述：航空和機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊均上漲 1A股市場(chǎng)：航空和機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊均上漲 1港股及海外市場(chǎng)：航空機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊上漲 2二、行業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)：國(guó)慶中秋雙節(jié)促進(jìn)月機(jī)票價(jià)格上漲8.9% 3航空客運(yùn)：10月旅客運(yùn)輸量同比增長(zhǎng)，其中國(guó)內(nèi)客流量同增4.5% 3航空貨運(yùn)：9月全球航空貨運(yùn)總需求同比增長(zhǎng)2.9%，國(guó)際需求增長(zhǎng)3.2% 7油價(jià)：航空煤油價(jià)格月繼續(xù)回落 8匯率：美元兌人民幣高位回落 9機(jī)場(chǎng)：10月42座千萬級(jí)機(jī)場(chǎng)有座旅客吞吐量同比正增長(zhǎng) 9三、投資評(píng)價(jià)和建議：以價(jià)換量提升客座率，油價(jià)匯率成為助攻項(xiàng) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 圖目錄圖1:交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)各子板塊與滬深300的超額收益 1圖2:交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)漲跌幅股票排名前十（單位：%） 1圖3:航空機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊漲跌幅表現(xiàn)（單位：%） 1圖4:A股市場(chǎng)航空機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊主要標(biāo)的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)及估值 2圖5:港股及海外市場(chǎng)航空機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊主要標(biāo)的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)及估值 2圖6:三大航司客座率（%） 3圖7:三大航司可用座公里同比增速（%） 3圖8:航空業(yè)供需增速差與客座率（%） 3圖9:2025年中國(guó)民航執(zhí)行客運(yùn)航班量日趨勢(shì) 3圖10:南方航空各航線月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù) 4圖11:東方航空各航線月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù) 4圖12:春秋航空各航線月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù) 5圖13:吉祥航空各航線月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù) 6圖14:上海至北美航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù) 7圖15:上海至歐洲航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù) 7圖16:香港至北美航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù) 8圖17:香港至歐洲航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù) 8圖18:法蘭克福至北美航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù) 8圖19:法蘭克福至東南亞航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格 8圖20:航空煤油價(jià)格（元/噸） 8圖21:布倫特原油期貨結(jié)算價(jià)格（美元/桶） 8圖22:國(guó)內(nèi)航線歷史燃油附加費(fèi)征收情況（元） 9圖23:美元兌人民幣匯率：中間價(jià) 9圖24:三大航司的匯兌損益（正值表示收益，億元） 9圖25:上海浦東機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架/萬人次） 10圖26:上海虹橋機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架/萬人次） 10圖27:首都機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架/萬人次） 11圖28:深圳機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架/萬人次） 11圖29:美蘭機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架/萬人次） 11圖30:白云機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架/萬人次） 12圖31:廈門空港月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架/萬人次） 12圖16:2019-2025年民航國(guó)內(nèi)航班量（架次/周）趨勢(shì) 14圖17:2019-2025年民航國(guó)際航班量（架次/周）趨勢(shì) 14圖18:2025年民航國(guó)內(nèi)及國(guó)際航班量恢復(fù)率情況 14圖19:2025年三季度國(guó)際通航TOP20國(guó)家 14圖20:2019-2025年民航國(guó)內(nèi)客座率（%）趨勢(shì) 15圖21:2019-2025年民航國(guó)際客座率（%）趨勢(shì) 15圖22:2019-2025年民航國(guó)內(nèi)平均裸票價(jià)（元）趨勢(shì) 15圖23:2019-2025年民航國(guó)際平均裸票價(jià)（元）趨勢(shì) 15一、行情綜述：航空和機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊均上漲A300（1110-1114）交運(yùn)板塊整體上漲。其中，本5.13%2.19%。圖1:交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)各子板塊與滬深300的超額收益圖2:交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)漲跌幅股票排名前十（單位圖3:航空機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊漲跌幅表現(xiàn)（單位圖4:A股市場(chǎng)航空機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊主要標(biāo)的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)及估值細(xì)分行業(yè) 上市公司股票代碼市值（億美元）周漲跌幅年初至今漲幅PE（TTM）PBEV/EBITDA中國(guó)國(guó)航601111.SH195.975.54%10.75%564.473.3910.36南方航空600029.SH169.303.44%11.25%-96.633.748.83東方航空600115.SH155.996.94%31.00%-58.316.549.87航空 海航600221.SH116.023.83%11.76%-329.5436.1313.27春秋航空601021.SH81.756.52%5.04%28.893.3312.06吉祥航空603885.SH45.5811.72%8.66%44.053.6310.68華夏航空002928.SZ21.507.49%53.48%26.194.5312.16中信海直000099.SZ23.21-1.58%-18.97%46.573.0917.38上海機(jī)場(chǎng)600009.SH120.266.21%1.85%35.992.0414.12機(jī)場(chǎng) 白云機(jī)場(chǎng)600004.SH33.982.01%7.80%17.781.316.23深圳機(jī)場(chǎng)000089.SZ21.310.68%8.69%25.831.3311.39廈門空港600897.SH10.304.79%17.42%16.431.638.17圖5:港股及海外市場(chǎng)航空機(jī)場(chǎng)板塊主要標(biāo)的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)及估值細(xì)分行業(yè) 上市公司 股票代碼 市值（億美元）

周漲跌幅 年初至今漲幅 PE（TTM）

PB EV/EBITDA航空客運(yùn)航空貨運(yùn)機(jī)場(chǎng)

西南航空 LUV.N 170.87 1.8% 0.0% 45.08 1.65 9.27達(dá)美航空(DELTA) DAL.N 391.19 1.7% 0.2% 8.45 2.56 7.00瑞安航空 334.47 1.3% 52.5% 12.33 4.46 10.47Volaris航空 77.42 0.2% -10.8% -123.63 21.22 7.27中國(guó)國(guó)航 0753.HK 195.97 5.2% 26.2% 375.80 2.33 10.18美聯(lián)航 UAL.O 314.58 -0.3% 0.1% 9.55 2.48 6.32中國(guó)南方航空股份 1055.HK 169.30 7.9% 30.9% -61.91 2.56 6.64中國(guó)東方航空股份 0670.HK 155.99 7.2% 78.0% -46.83 5.33 7.77美國(guó)航空 AAL.O 86.27 -4.2% -25.0% 14.33 -2.17 7.50勒莫國(guó)航 GOL.N 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.00國(guó)泰航空 0293.HK 105.11 3.3% 36.3% 8.26 1.56 5.29阿拉斯加航空 ALK.N 49.11 -1.4% -34.6% 32.74 1.12 7.83捷藍(lán)航空 JBLU.O 15.71 -2.3% -45.0% -3.35 0.59 -2545.41嘉里物流 0636.HK 16.77 3.4% 8.4% 9.59 0.82 3.44中國(guó)外運(yùn) 0598.HK 60.45 1.0% 54.2% 9.24 0.89 0.00福沃運(yùn)輸 FWRD.O 6.63 1.5% -34.2% -5.72 3.29 0.00美國(guó)航空運(yùn)輸服務(wù) ATSG.O 0.00 0.0% 2.3% 0.00 1.00 0.00嘉泓物流 2130.HK 1.30 -1.2% -2.0% 35.02 1.97 5.20INFINITYL&T 1442.HK 0.90 6.3% 13.3% 14.17 1.13 5.84先豐服務(wù)集團(tuán) 0500.HK 0.24 16.4% -44.7% -1.67 0.69 -5.93圓通速遞國(guó)際 6123.HK 0.59 -0.9% -4.3% -7.83 0.38 13407.59泰國(guó)機(jī)場(chǎng)公司 AOT.THA 183.66 1.2% -30.3% 30.91 4.77 0.00太平洋航空 PAC.N 109.55 0.9% 26.2% 19.87 10.08 15.00墨西哥坎昆國(guó)際機(jī)場(chǎng) 91.51 -1.1% 30.5% 12.87 3.47 7.54北方中心機(jī)場(chǎng) OMAB.O 50.88 1.0% 57.2% 17.57 10.07 12.88北京首都機(jī)場(chǎng)股份 0694.HK 17.56 5.7% 6.4% -10.58 0.94 18.76美蘭空港 0357.HK 6.40 -1.0% 14.2% -22.28 1.13 0.00亞洲實(shí)業(yè)集團(tuán) 1737.HK 0.12 0.0% -2.2% -4.60 0.49 0.36注均為 和客數(shù)據(jù)不包預(yù)測(cè)據(jù)二、行業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)：國(guó)慶中秋雙節(jié)促進(jìn)10月機(jī)票價(jià)格上漲8.9%航空客運(yùn)：圖6:三大航司客座率圖7:三大航司可用座公里同比增速圖8:航空業(yè)供需增速差與客座率（%）

8906890685480275070-265-460-655-82012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 20232024202550注：供需增速差=可用座公里(ASK)-收費(fèi)客公里(RPK)圖9:2025年中國(guó)民航執(zhí)行客運(yùn)航班量日趨勢(shì)班管體增速19.3%16.2%體增速19.3%16.2%15.2%10.1%17.6%0.4%6.1%12.3%8.4%6.7%7.3%6.0%5.2%7.6%客座率85.5%86.7%84.8%84.6%84.8%86.7%84.7%85.6%85.9%85.2%84.4%87.0%86.3%85.6%增速6.8%5.6%5.9%5.2%3.8%1.1%2.4%2.5%2.8%1.8%0.6%-0.2%0.8%1.7%（單位：百萬）2024 2024 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 20259月10月11月12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月2025可用座公里30,43931,15628,11629,07034,12130,48029,31829,74430,72230,45336,48936,75031,733289,809增速9.8%8.7%7.2%3.3%12.4%-0.9%3.1%9.0%4.9%4.4%6.5%6.2%4.3% 5.5%總收入客公里26,02727,01923,84524,58028,92026,43824,84325,45526,39225,93930,79031,96827,385248,130可用座公里22,46523,18520,56320,93324,65222,40721,36221,29222,42322,23327,34327,55523,132212,399增速0.1%0.2%-0.8%-1.8%6.0%-6.2%-3.2%3.6%1.3%1.3%5.5%4.7%3.0% 1.9%國(guó)收入客公里19,31520,29717,45917,66620,94619,71618,24518,29519,45519,04723,12924,11320,113183,060內(nèi)增速10.3%7.0%5.4%3.4%9.7%-4.1%0.6%7.1%4.7%3.6%6.5%4.9%4.1%4.1%客座率86.0%87.5%84.9%84.4%85.0%88.0%85.4%85.9%86.8%85.7%84.6%87.5%87.0%86.2%增速8.0%5.6%5.0%4.3%2.9%1.9%3.2%2.8%2.7%1.9%0.8%0.2%1.0%1.9%可用座公里7,6797,7037,3147,8749,1927,8317,7128,1978,0037,9158,8428,8788,31374,883增速52.2%46.3%39.1%20.0%34.3%18.1%25.5%27.0%16.3%14.4%9.8%11.2%8.3%17.7%國(guó)收入客公里6,4866,5086,2016,7147,7616,5416,4136,9556,7146,6407,4127,5877,04563,068際增速56.5%58.1%55.9%32.5%46.3%17.3%25.6%29.7%21.5%16.6%9.9%9.4%8.6%19.6%客座率84.5%84.5%84.8%85.3%84.4%83.5%83.2%84.9%83.9%83.9%83.8%85.5%84.7%84.2%增速2.3%6.3%9.1%8.0%6.9%-0.6%0.1%1.8%3.6%1.5%0.0%-1.4%0.3%1.3%可用座公里295269239264277242 2442542963063033172882,527增速34.8%10.1%-0.7%1.1%13.8%0.0%1.8%-7.5%0.0%4.2%0.8%3.2%-2.4%1.4%地收入客公1842042222522492672282,001區(qū)增速41.9%25.0%10.9%7.4%16.9%-6.1%2.3%-4.9%-0.8%9.4%3.0%6.0%0.7%2.9%客座率76.7%79.8%77.2%76.2%76.9%75.2%75.5%80.3%75.1%82.4%82.0%84.3%79.1%79.2%增速3.8%9.5%8.1%4.5%2.0%-4.9%0.4%2.2%-0.6%3.9%1.7%2.2%2.4%1.2%司公圖11:東方航空各航線月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)2024 2024 2024 2024202520252025 2025 202520252025202520252025(單位：百萬)9月 10月11月 12月1月2月3月 4月 5月6月7月 8月9月累計(jì)可用座公里24,29425,36323,32324,11627,83025,25324,85925,19226,45225,43829,71929,77125,177239,689增速10.3%12.3% 9.2% 6.9%11.9%1.0%6.7% 9.6% 9.3% 6.5% 7.4% 6.8%3.6% 7.0%總收入客公里20,28921,44519,66920,14023,05621,49520,92121,50622,58821,91225,18926,30022,047205,014體增速25.2%23.2%20.9%17.3%19.7%3.1%10.5%15.6%15.4%10.0%9.4%8.7%8.7%11.0%客座率83.5%84.6%84.3%83.5%82.9%85.1%84.2%85.4%85.4%86.1%84.8%88.3%87.6%85.5%增速9.9%7.5%8.1%7.5%5.4%1.7%2.9%4.4%4.6%2.7%1.6%1.6%4.1%3.1%可用座公里16,16416,97915,52315,356 18,19616,853 16,15316,50717,35416,46419,69619,82016,429157,472國(guó)增速 -4.6%-0.9%-1.8%-3.8% 2.3%-5.3% -1.4% 4.5% 4.9% 1.9% 4.9% 3.3% 1.6% 1.9%內(nèi)收入客公里13,76214,76413,23412,936 15,24914,810 13,84614,23915,12614,44717,02817,76014,538137,044增速10.2%9.3%7.2%4.9%8.6%-1.3%3.4%10.7%10.5%5.6%6.9%5.5%5.6%6.1%客座率85.1%87.0%85.3%84.2%83.8%87.9%85.7%86.3%87.2%87.8%86.5%89.6%88.5%87.0%增速11.5%8.1%7.1%6.9%4.8%3.6%4.0%4.8%4.4%3.1%1.6%1.9%3.3%3.5%可用座公里7,6197,8437,2608,2069,0617,9218,1888,1508,5348,4509,4889,3808,26977,441增速63.9%58.3%44.4%35.7%39.2%18.8%28.4%22.9%20.2%18.0%14.0%15.8%8.5%20.1%國(guó)收入客公里6,1156,2335,9856,7557,3446,2986,6576,8207,0057,0217,7208,0407,12364,029際增速79.0%76.3%68.2%52.4%53.0%16.2%29.4%28.0%28.4%20.8%16.2%17.4%16.5%24.2%客座率80.3%79.5%82.4%82.3%81.1%79.5%81.3%83.7%82.1%83.1%81.4%85.7%86.1%82.7%增速6.8%8.1%11.7%9.0%7.3%-1.8%0.6%3.4%5.3%1.9%1.6%1.2%5.9%2.7%可用座公里5115415405545724785185355645235355724794,776增速21.4%10.8%1.6%-2.2%-2.1%-11.9%-6.1%-1.3%-0.7%-5.7%-7.6%-3.5%-6.4%-5.0%地收入客公里4124484494494633874184474574444424993863,942區(qū)增速35.8%27.4%20.9%12.3%11.1%-8.5%4.1%6.4%7.7%3.5%-2.3%-1.3%-6.2%1.5%客座率80.6%82.8%83.2%81.1%80.9%80.8%80.7%83.5%81.0%84.9%82.6%87.3%80.7%82.5%增速8.6%10.8%13.3%10.4%9.6%3.0%7.9%6.0%6.3%7.6%4.5%2.0%0.2%5.3%司公20242024202420242025202520242024202420242025202520252025202520252025202520252025（單位：百萬）9月10月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月累計(jì)可用座公里4,3474,6634,2004,5705,1984,7494,6014,9225,0084,8295,8235,8965,26546,291同比增速11.0%16.6%10.4%13.1%17.2%2.2%1.7%12.5%11.5%12.4%10.4%12.0%21.1%11.1%總收入客公里3,9354,2163,7984,1504,7104,3414,1294,3394,5614,4495,3495,5344,83542,247體同比增速 11.3%16.9%12.7%15.1%16.9%0.5%1.8%9.3%11.7%11.6%8.6%12.2%22.9%10.5%客座率 90.5%90.4%90.4%90.8%90.6%91.4%89.7%88.2%91.1%92.1%91.9%93.9%91.8%91.3%同比增速 0.2%0.2%1.9%1.6%-0.2%-1.6%0.1%-2.6%0.1%-0.6%-1.5%0.2%1.3%-0.5%可用座公里 3,4453,6713,2913,4923,8023,5293,5623,9044,0293,8544,5184,6344,17336,006同比增速 1.5%4.7%-1.4%0.9%2.7%-7.5%-4.9%11.2%10.9%10.5%5.7%9.1%21.2%6.4%國(guó)收入客公里 3,1653,4033,0263,1823,5013,2853,2283,4693,7103,5754,2004,3663,88733,220同比增速 1.2%5.7%1.1%2.7%3.3%-7.7%-4.1%8.6%11.9%10.3%4.7%9.6%22.8%6.4%客座率 91.9%92.7%91.9%91.1%92.1%93.1%90.6%88.9%92.1%92.8%93.0%94.2%93.2%92.3%內(nèi)同比增速 -0.3%0.9%2.3%1.5% 0.5%-0.2%0.7%-2.2%0.8%-0.2%-1.0%0.4%1.3%0.0%可用座公里 875 966 8841,058 1,3701,1921,0109919509491,2791,2341,05610,031同比增速 87.7%120.5%113.5%101.4%104.0%55.2%42.0%19.8%14.9%22.2%34.0%27.2%20.7%35.9%國(guó)收入客公里 747 791 750 951 1,185 1,032 875 846 827 8491,1251,143 9168,797際同比增速108.8%134.8%129.1%109.9%103.9%46.7%39.0%14.4%11.6%19.0%29.5%26.3%22.6%32.7%客座率 85.4%81.8%84.9%89.8%86.5%86.6%86.6%85.4%87.0%89.5%87.9%92.6%86.7%87.7%同比增速 8.6%5.0%5.8%3.6%-0.1%-5.0%-1.9%-4.0%-2.6%-2.4%-3.1%-0.6%1.3%-2.1%可用座公里 27 27 25 20262830272927 26 2835 255同比增速-51.3%-50.2%-54.6%-65.2%-59.0%-57.4%-57.9%-31.9%-14.3%-16.2%-44.9%-40.5%27.8%-40.0%地收入客公里 23 23 22 18232527242525 24 2631 230區(qū)同比增速-55.6%-54.3%-55.6%-66.9%-60.1%-59.5%-56.2%-34.2%-18.1%-16.4%-44.7%-39.8%36.4%-40.6%客座率83.7%85.7%88.5%88.5%90.9%89.5%90.3%87.4%86.0%91.7%92.8%94.1%89.4%90.2%同比增速-8.2%-7.6%-2.1%-4.6%-2.6%-4.5%3.4%-3.1%-4.0%-0.2%0.4% 1.0%5.6%-0.8%司公圖13:吉祥航空各航線月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)2024202420242024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 20252025202520259月10月11月12月1月2月 3月4月5月 6月7月8月9月累計(jì)可用座公里4,4574,7584,1234,6955,3884,5834,6254,6964,7554,5755,0885,1274,54243,381增速14.6%17.5%13.1%15.4%18.7%-2.7%4.5%2.8%0.5%1.9%-3.0%-2.7%1.9%2.2%總收入客公里3,7284,0533,4283,8714,4413,9203,9094,0464,0963,9684,3154,5613,90937,165體增速14.8%19.3%13.9%15.2%17.2%-4.8%3.4%6.3%5.0%4.0%-3.2%-1.9%4.9%3.1%客座率83.7%85.2%83.1%82.4%82.4%85.5%84.5%86.2%86.1%86.7%84.8%89.0%86.1%85.7%增速0.2%1.3%0.6%-0.2%-1.1%-1.9%-0.9%2.8%3.7%1.7%-0.1%0.7%2.4%0.7%可用座公里3,3023,5063,0423,2883,6403,2023,2003,2793,3273,2323,6753,7113,11830,384增速-1.0%0.6%-3.9%-5.6%-4.0%-14.5%-9.5%-10.3%-11.4%-8.9%-8.3%-6.8%-5.6%-8.8%國(guó)收入客公里2,8873,1372,6182,7873,1222,8602,8102,9082,9492,8553,1853,3652,77626,831內(nèi)增速0.7%3.9%-2.0%-4.9%-3.7%-14.5%-8.3%-5.6%-7.6%-7.3%-9.6%-7.1%-3.8%-7.6%客座率87.4%89.5%86.0%84.8%85.8%89.3%87.8%88.7%88.6%88.3%86.7%90.7%89.0%88.3%增速1.5%2.8%1.6%0.6%0.3%0.0%1.1%4.3%3.6%1.6%-1.3%-0.3%1.6%1.2%可用座公里1,1121,2031,0321,3641,6881,3301,3791,3841,3971,3121,3801,3851,39512,651增速117.3%133.3%146.0%158.9%144.1%46.1%64.6%60.0%50.1%46.9%17.5%13.7%25.4%46.5%國(guó)收入客公里808 875 7681,0481,2701,0161,0591,1101,1201,0851,1001,1671,10810,035際增速134.3%158.1%163.4%173.7%152.6%39.7%57.7%62.5%66.7%55.0%25.6%20.4%37.1%51.8%客座率72.7%72.8%74.5%76.9%75.3%76.4%76.8%80.1%80.2%82.7%79.7%84.3%79.5%79.3%增速5.3%7.0%4.9% 4.2%2.5%-3.5%-3.3%1.2%8.0%4.3%5.1%4.7%6.8%2.8%可用座公里4250 49 446151 46 32 32 31 33 31 29 346增速-0.7%-1.8%-21.1%-29.1%11.1%-9.7%-15.0%-32.0%-34.9%-34.0%-48.6%-54.2%-31.8%-28.4%地 收入客公里3341 42 364943 39 28 28 27 30 29 25 299增速-1.2%增速-1.2%3.7%-5.3%-26.2%9.4%-6.8%-9.7%-29.1%-28.5%-25.3%-46.0%-52.3%-24.9%-25.1%客座率78.7%82.2%86.1%83.3%80.7%85.2%86.1%88.0%86.9%87.9%90.2%90.6%86.6%86.3%增速-0.4%4.4%14.4% 3.3%-1.3%2.6%5.1%3.6%7.8%10.2%4.3%3.6% 7.9%3.8%司公 注年3（含之后祥航月度營(yíng)數(shù)將地細(xì)分?jǐn)?shù)納入際數(shù)進(jìn)行算航空貨運(yùn)：93.2%圖14:上海至北美航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù) 圖15:上海至歐洲航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù)18USD/kg

USD/kg 12 162022202320242025112022202320242025141091281078 66 54431/11/151/292/121/11/151/292/122/263/123/264/94/235/75/216/46/187/27/167/308/138/279/109/2410/810/2211/511/1912/312/1712/311/11/151/292/122/263/123/264/94/235/75/216/46/187/27/167/308/138/279/109/2410/810/2211/511/1912/312/1712/31ACdata ACdata圖16:香港至北美航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù) 圖17:香港至歐洲航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù)16 USD/kg2018 2019 2020 2021202220232022202320242025

USD/kg20222023202420259 2018 2019 2020 2021202220232024202581271068 56 44 31/151/292/122/263/121/151/292/122/263/123/264/235/216/187/167/308/138/279/109/2410/812/3ACdata ACdata圖18:法蘭克福至北美航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格指數(shù) 圖19:法蘭克福至東南亞航空貨運(yùn)價(jià)格6.05.55.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.0

USD/kg20222023202420252018 2019 2020 20212022202320242025

3.32.81.81.31/11/151/11/151/292/122/263/123/264/94/235/75/216/46/187/27/167/308/138/279/109/2410/810/2211/511/1912/312/1712/31

USD/kg

2022202320222023202420252.3油價(jià)：航空煤油價(jià)格11月繼續(xù)回落圖20:航空煤油價(jià)格（元噸） 圖21:布倫特原油期貨結(jié)算價(jià)格（美元桶）2019-01-172019-04-172019-07-172019-10-172020-01-172020-04-172020-07-172020-10-172021-01-172021-04-172021-07-172021-10-172022-01-172022-04-172022-07-172022-10-172023-01-172023-04-172023-07-172023-10-172024-01-172024-04-172024-07-172024-10-172019-01-172019-04-172019-07-172019-10-172020-01-172020-04-172020-07-172020-10-172021-01-172021-04-172021-07-172021-10-172022-01-172022-04-172022-07-172022-10-172023-01-172023-04-172023-07-172023-10-172024-01-172024-04-172024-07-172024-10-172025-01-172025-04-172025-07-172025-10-17 航空機(jī)場(chǎng)圖22:國(guó)內(nèi)航線歷史燃油附加費(fèi)征收情況（元）2.4匯率：美元兌人民幣高位回落圖23:美元兌人民幣匯率：中間價(jià)圖24:三大航司的匯兌損益（正值表示收益，億元）中間價(jià):美元兌人民幣7.47.27.07.08566.86.66.46.26.02.5機(jī)場(chǎng)：10月42座千萬級(jí)機(jī)場(chǎng)有26座旅客吞吐量同比正增長(zhǎng)9圖25:上海浦東機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架次/萬人次） 20249月

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2025累計(jì)起降次數(shù) 43,39745,86341,76843,77147,90742,61345,11945,41046,33944,87848,66449,84445,855416,629總 增速 6.3%10.4%6.6%7.0%10.9%-0.1%4.3%7.3%5.6%5.8%2.7%3.5%5.7%5.0%體 旅客吞吐量 625 669 604 641 715 646 665 687 707 690 7487956996,352增速 21.0%23.1%21.3%20.3%21.9%2.3%9.0%13.1%13.0%10.1%5.7%6.9%11.7%10.2%起降次數(shù) 25,03426,81723,53424,36427,57525,00225,39125,70026,25925,19627,11128,00325,704235,941國(guó) 增速 -6.7%-0.5%-4.7%-3.3%3.2%-5.9%-3.3%1.3%1.5%1.3%-3.0%-1.8% 2.7%-0.5%內(nèi) 旅客吞吐量3623963383463963723703803963804084353873,524增速5.3%8.3%4.6%5.1%7.7%-3.6%0.6%6.3%6.1%5.4%-0.2%0.2%7.0%3.1%起降次數(shù)15,67916,29815,52116,60417,51515,18816,95416,93417,38617,00518,687起降次數(shù)15,67916,29815,52116,60417,51515,18816,95416,93417,38617,00518,68718,81017,329155,808增速41.3%39.9%32.5%29.7%29.2%13.5%20.5%19.4%15.1%14.6%13.7%13.4%10.5%16.4% 旅客吞吐量228.6233.1226.6255.0276.7238.9256.4264.4271.3269.5296.5312.3271.62,457.7增速63.0%63.3%60.8%51.7%52.4%15.3%24.7%24.6%25.8%17.7%15.6%18.1%18.8%22.8%起降次數(shù)2,3512,4912,4222,5642,6642,2862,4912,5112,4512,4102,6452,7482,48122,687地 增速-2.3%-0.6%-4.9%-4.7%-1.2%-10.0%-8.5%0.9%-6.6%-2.8%-3.7%-2.2%5.5%-3.3%區(qū) 旅客吞吐量35.039.439.240.041.7 34.539.542.440.240.944.047.239.8370.2增速 6.0%12.7%15.8%13.1%13.9%-8.2%5.5%12.5%8.8%8.5%2.4%6.3%13.8%6.9%司公圖26:上海虹橋機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架次/萬人次）20249月

2024月

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2025累計(jì)起降次數(shù)22,274起降次數(shù)22,27423,78322,96723,59823,94021,8增速0.61%2.93%2.44%4.18%3.07%-2.88%2.75%7.10%%2.75%7.10%3.64%5.21%3.22%1.58%4.43%3.08%客吞 385.6 423.3 398.4 394.4 406.1 384.5421.2 412.0 430.6 407.4423.2 445.2 408.93,739吐量增速 9.27%9.95%7.79%6.74%3.54%-0.55%4.13%11.11%6.15%4.87%3.53%2.18%6.05%4.49%體旅起降次 20,663起降次 20,66322,20321,46521,95622,30520,43922,52521,42222,25821,20422,21322,75621,639196,761境增速 -0.35%2.67%2.44%4.37%3.20%-2.77%2.79%8.06%3.72%5.55%3.58%1.65%4.72%3.33%內(nèi)旅客吞 360.5396.8371.0366.4378.1 359.7393.6383.7402.3378.7393.9414.3381.33,486吐量增速 9.32%9.93%7.55%6.52%3.04%-0.64%3.84%11.48%6.09%5.04%3.57%1.91%5.77%4.38%數(shù)境增速

507 573575507 5735755855395695685555,037-3.61%0.88%-1.03%4.46%0.19%2.71%5.19%-1.42%0.88%17.05%13.25%6.25%4.54%0.53%外旅客吞吐量

9 10 10 11 11 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 99增速 13.73%16.99%27.55%23.34%27.62%9.84%15.32%11.76%10.66%7.63%9.70%19.94%22.12%14.72%司公 ：虹橋場(chǎng)于年7月日式注上海際機(jī)股份限公（600009）圖27:首都機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架次/萬人次）2024 2024 2024 20242025 2025202520252025 202520252025202520259月10月11月12月1月 2月3月4月5月 6月7月8月9月累計(jì)起降35,88737,42636,02036,71437,21433,78936,71935,79237,66836,123 38,73438,188 35,888330,115次數(shù)增速7.91%8.78%6.71%8.80%4.07%-0.10%1.68%3.20%4.83%2.89% 2.85%-0.67%0.00% 2.1%總體旅客吞吐量

554 600 546 551 573 541 558 575 602 569 610635 581 5,244增速14.93%16.67%15.96%14.11%5.48%-1.40%2.06%7.72%9.38%3.70% 3.16%1.79% 4.83% 4.0%起降29,75431,15029,80430,24630,93928,36230,62229,44731,08629,571 31,69331,010 29,146271,876次數(shù)增速2.43%3.71%1.65%5.69%0.66%-2.90%-1.37%-0.32%1.95%-0.16% 0.64%-3.69%-2.04% -0.8%國(guó)內(nèi)旅客吞吐量

441 488 442 439 452 440 450 455 482 449 478494 454 4,153增速7.84%10.30%9.57%9.04%-0.24%-4.30%-0.76%4.71%6.31%0.79% 1.17%-1.08%2.87% 1.0%起降 6,133 6,276 6,216 6,468 6,2755,427 6,097 6,345 6,5826,552 7,0417,178 6,742 58,239次數(shù)增速45.78%43.65%40.13%26.16%24.98%17.62%20.33%23.44%20.93%19.32%14.15%14.88%9.93% 18.1%國(guó)際旅客吞吐量

113.48112.36104.53112.01120.64100.89108.64119.99119.80120.44 132.15140.97 127.63 1,091增速54.36%55.76%53.87%39.52%38.52%13.65%15.67%20.86%23.80%16.22%11.05%13.28%12.47%17.8%司公圖28:深圳機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架次/萬人次）2024

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累計(jì)34,91737,66836,61437,52138,91734,70238,11135,93937,27436,18737,74438,33934,616331,830總 增速9.8%5.8%6.1%5.4%5.5%-2.3%4.6%17.1%11.2%8.8%1.0%1.4%-0.9%4.9%體 旅客吞吐量494 567 523 535 572 529 554 532 554 516 544 581 5104,891增速15.6%11.0%13.4%10.1%10.9%-0.5%8.7%23.5%15.7%9.5%2.0%4.1%3.2%8.1%司公圖29:美蘭機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架次/萬人次） 20249月

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2025累計(jì)起降次數(shù)10697140681421016728201111838716875145351309812047154461618812305138992總 增速-19.69%4.14%-0.25%-1.81%5.97%-2.68%-8.14%-7.49%-5.00%-5.03%0.72%2.57%15.03%旅客吞吐量旅客吞吐量1,550.702,024.601,983.702,306.302897 2875242620611920172821542434.41780.620276增速 -15.10%5.26% 0.44%-2.47%2.90%-11.24%-6.85%-5.32%0.86%-1.49%0.35%2.05%14.83%39.89%司公圖30:白云機(jī)場(chǎng)月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架次/萬人次）202420242024202520252025202520252025202510月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月2025 2025202520258月9月10月 累計(jì)起降次數(shù)43,95443,63745,99147,80740,09644,16544,37145,58343,78748,41348,16443,34648,702454,434總增速11.6%12.9%14.3%9.2%-10.3%1.5%25.2%11.2%9.6%7.9%6.0%9.1%10.8% 7.6%體旅客吞吐量682 650 670 714 631 660 666 686 645 712734 660 764 6,874增速18.2%20.0%18.1%13.1%-8.0%2.8%26.3%14.3%11.7%6.3%4.3%10.8%12.0% 8.8%起降次數(shù) 34,21634,25535,97637,53331,31734,46934,48235,80834,19037,99437,76933,69038,047355,299國(guó) 增速 6.9%9.4%11.6%5.5%-15.0%-2.1%26.7%11.5%8.9%7.4% 5.2%10.9%11.2% 6.3%內(nèi) 旅客吞吐量 548 520 530 569 506 526 524 549 511 563 581 521 610 5,459增速12.5%13.9%13.1%7.8%-12.3%-1.0%26.7%13.1%10.1%4.3%2.2%10.8%11.3%6.5%起降次數(shù)9,3559,0049,6159,8878,4329,2899,5039,4199,25110,03610,0029,28810,27095,377國(guó) 增速33.6%29.8%26.7%26.8%12.0%17.8%21.4%11.1%13.1%10.3%9.5%3.6%9.8%13.2%際 旅客吞吐量128.4125.1135.0139.8120.2127.9136.7132.1129.0143.6146.4134.0147.91,358增速51.6%55.1%42.8%41.1%16.2%21.6%26.1%19.9%19.3%15.1%14.1%11.4%15.2%19.5%起降次數(shù)3833784003873474073863563463833933683853,758地 增速-2.5%-3.3%0.0%-0.3%-1.7%3.0%-2.5%-11.9%-1.4%-0.8%-5.3%-3.9%0.5%-2.5%區(qū) 旅客吞吐量5.765.535.505.344.825.975.875.585.375.966.115.576.4757增速2.3%5.8%19.4%15.0%-3.9%4.8%0.7%3.2%4.4%2.2%0.3%1.8%12.2%3.9%司公圖31:廈門空港月度經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：架次/萬人次）2024

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起降次數(shù) 16,85816,12816,20717,19615,48316,02016,43716,79316,02818,07017,85815,92916,727166,541增速9.7%9.4%9.1%9.5%-2.8%1.7%5.0%5.0%4.6%8.4%3.6%0.7%-0.8%3.5%總體旅客吞吐量252 235 230 2482362292392482332622712312552,451增速17.3%16.2%12.7%13.0%-2.0%3.8%7.7%8.3%5.6%8.6%5.2%3.0%1.6%5.4%增速內(nèi) 旅客吞吐量6.5%6.0%6.9%7.9%220 204 195 212-5.3%203-0.6%1973.3%2034.3%2122.7%1988.7%2273.1%233-0.3%199-1.9%2192.2%2,102增速15.3%13.8%11.1%10.8%-3.0%增速內(nèi) 旅客吞吐量6.5%6.0%6.9%7.9%220 204 195 212-5.3%203-0.6%1973.3%2034.3%2122.7%1988.7%2273.1%233-0.3%199-1.9%2192.2%2,102增速15.3%13.8%11.1%10.8%-3.0%3.0%6.5%7.0%3.3%8.9%4.9%2.4%-0.3%4.3%起降次數(shù)1,9331,8842,0282,0541,8341,9482,0922,0542,0602,0582,1312,0242,12220,377國(guó) 增速46.0%43.7%28.9%27.7%17.2%19.1%23.1%16.2%23.5%10.1%11.0%10.1%9.8%16.4%際旅客吞吐量25.6 24.9 27.8 28.926.425.8 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.329.626.629.5 283增速40.6%42.8%29.0%32.8%9.8%10.9%23.9%23.2%30.2%11.2%9.3%8.8%15.2%17.1%地起降次數(shù)544 532 540 550476526 504 476 476 518518480508 5,032區(qū)增速6.7%7.3%0.6%5.4%-2.9%4.8%-12.2%-10.9%-6.7%-5.8%-9.1%-8.4%-6.6%-5.4%國(guó)旅客吞吐量 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.8 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.1 6.2 7.4 7.7 5.9 7.2 66增速 10.1%11.0%1.9%11.9%-13.2%0.0%-13.3%-5.3%-8.0%-7.5%-1.5%-0.3%12.0%-3.1%三、投資評(píng)價(jià)和建議：以價(jià)換量提升客座率，油價(jià)匯率成為助攻項(xiàng)航空的投資框架在過去五年備受爭(zhēng)議。航空過去幾年的虧損，將公司過往積累的凈資產(chǎn)損失殆盡，如果不是大股東注資以及資本市場(chǎng)的融資，恐怕多數(shù)航空公司已經(jīng)退市。疫情后的航空恢復(fù)之路并沒有按照該有的敘事邏輯進(jìn)行，反而一直在底部徘徊。國(guó)內(nèi)商務(wù)需求的疲軟與國(guó)際歐美航線恢復(fù)不及預(yù)期，導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)航班量雖然已經(jīng)恢復(fù)，但是航空價(jià)格卻不盡如人意。疊加油價(jià)和匯率在過往幾年的逆風(fēng)，航空的投資并不是真正的價(jià)值投資，而更多是基于A股生態(tài)的困境反轉(zhuǎn)和邊際定價(jià)。我們可以用隱含估值的分析方法和敏感性測(cè)試來去判定是航班量、客座率、票價(jià)、油價(jià)、匯率。1、航班量：國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際執(zhí)行航班量均已經(jīng)基本恢復(fù)至