Session5&6

GlobalTradeSystem

全球貿(mào)易體系Wewillexamineanumberoftheoriesthatexplainwhyinternationaltradebenefitsacountry.Wewillalsoexplorethepatternofexportsandimportsofproductsbetweencountries.SeeGBTChapters4&5)我們將會(huì)解釋為什么國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家有利的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論.我們還將闡述國(guó)家間產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口的模式.(參閱課本第4章和第5章)1LearningObjectives學(xué)習(xí)目的Understandwhynationstradewitheachother

了解為什么國(guó)與國(guó)之間要開(kāi)展貿(mào)易Beawareofdifferenttheoriesexplainingtradeflows

熟悉貿(mào)易流程間的不同理論Understandwhymanyeconomistsbelievethatfreetradewillraisetheeconomicwelfareofallcountriesparticipatinginafreetradesystem

了解為什么許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都認(rèn)為自由貿(mào)易會(huì)對(duì)參與自由貿(mào)易體系的所有國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展都有利Befamiliarwiththeargumentsthatgovernmentcanplayaproactiveroleinpromotingnationalcompetitiveadvantageincertainindustries

熟悉認(rèn)為政府可以在提高本國(guó)某些行業(yè)的國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)方面發(fā)揮積極作用的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的論點(diǎn)Understandtheimportantimplicationsthatinternationaltradetheoryhasforbusinesspractice認(rèn)識(shí)國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論對(duì)商務(wù)活動(dòng)的意義2AnOverviewofTradeTheory

貿(mào)易理論的概述(P98)Thebenefitsoftrade貿(mào)易的有利之處Thepatternofinternationaltrade國(guó)際貿(mào)易的模式Tradetheoryandgovernmentpolicy貿(mào)易理論和政府政策Wewillbelookingatmercantilism,atheoryadvocatedintheC16-17thatcountriesshouldencourageexportsanddiscourageimports(Japan);thenatAdamSmith’stheoryofabsoluteadvantage,whichexplainswhyunrestrictedfreetradeisbeneficial;finallyattheworkofRicardoandtheHeckscher-Ohlintheory.

我們將討論重商主義理論,這一理論盛行于16-17世紀(jì),它提倡各國(guó)在鼓勵(lì)出口的同時(shí)應(yīng)限制進(jìn)口(日本);接下來(lái)討論亞當(dāng).史密斯的絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)理論,該理論解釋了為什么無(wú)限制的自由貿(mào)易是有利的;最后將討論李嘉圖的理論和赫克歇爾-俄林理論.3Mercantilism重商主義(P100-102)Mercantilismadvocatedatradesurplus;itwasinacountry’sinteresttoexportmorethanitimported重商主義提倡貿(mào)易順差;即出口多于進(jìn)口是最有利的.Exportsweretradedforgoldandsilver.Mercantilismviewedtradeasazero-sumgame(onecountry’sgainisanother’sloss)重商主義視貿(mào)易為得失所系(零累計(jì))的游戲(一個(gè)國(guó)家有所得必然導(dǎo)致另一個(gè)國(guó)家有所失)ThisapproachwascriticisedbyAdamSmithandDavidRicardo,whodemonstratedthattradeisapositive-sumgain(allcountriescanbenefit)該理論受到了亞當(dāng).史密斯和大衛(wèi).李嘉圖的批評(píng),他們認(rèn)為貿(mào)易是一種各有所得的事情(即所有國(guó)家都能從貿(mào)易中獲益)Manycountries(especiallyJapan)areneo-mercantilist:politiciansbelievethatpoliticalpower=economicpower=balance-of-tradesurplus許多國(guó)家(尤其是日本)是新重商主義國(guó)家:政治家們相信政治實(shí)力=經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力=貿(mào)易平衡順差4AbsoluteAdvantage絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)(P102-104)In1776,AdamSmitharguedinTheWealthofNationsthatcountriesdifferintheirabilitytoproducegoodsefficiently

在1776年,亞當(dāng).史密斯就在“富國(guó)論”

中就各國(guó)生產(chǎn)同一產(chǎn)品的效率各不相同進(jìn)行過(guò)探討.

Acountryhasanabsoluteadvantageintheproductionofaproductwhenitismoreefficientthananyothercountryinproducingit

當(dāng)一個(gè)國(guó)家生產(chǎn)某種產(chǎn)品的效率高于其他任何國(guó)家同一產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)效率時(shí),那么這個(gè)國(guó)家在這一產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)上就享有絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)Smitharguedthatcountriesshouldtradethosegoodsinwhichtheyhadanabsoluteadvantage-

史密斯認(rèn)為各國(guó)應(yīng)生產(chǎn)其享有絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)的產(chǎn)品.LookatthecomparisoninTable4.1betweenGhanaandSouthKoreaintheproductionofcocoaandrice(actually,notaverygoodexamplebecauseSouthKoreaisaveryinefficientagriculturalproducer)參看P104表4-1關(guān)于加納和南韓生產(chǎn)可可和大米(實(shí)際上,這不是一個(gè)很好的例子,因?yàn)槟享n是一個(gè)非常不夠效率的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)者)5ComparativeAdvantage比較優(yōu)勢(shì)(P105-108)DavidRicardoexpandedonAdamSmith’stheoriesinPrinciplesofPoliticalEconomy(1817)在大衛(wèi).李嘉圖的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)原理一書(shū)中,他延伸了亞當(dāng).史密斯的理論Histheoryofcomparativeadvantage(betweenproducts)heldthatacountryshouldspecialiseinthosegoodsthatitproducedmostefficiently,andimportthoseitproducedlessefficientlyfromothercountries–evenifitcouldproducethosegoodsmoreefficientlyitself他的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)理論強(qiáng)調(diào)一個(gè)國(guó)家應(yīng)專門從事其生產(chǎn)效率最高的產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn),而從其他國(guó)家購(gòu)買其生產(chǎn)效率并非最高的產(chǎn)品.即使這意味著它自身生產(chǎn)所購(gòu)產(chǎn)品的效率比出口國(guó)的要高.Thegainsfromtrade從貿(mào)易中得到的好處(P106-107)IncreasedconsumptioninbothcountriesQualificationsandassumptions先決條件和假設(shè)(P107)Simpleworld;NotransportationcostsTradeandeconomicgrowth貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)(P108)6ComparativeAdvantage比較優(yōu)勢(shì)(P105-108)QualificationsandAssumptions:Simpleworld–only2countries;2products

簡(jiǎn)單的世界——只有兩個(gè)國(guó)家；兩種產(chǎn)品Notransportationcostsbetweencountries

兩個(gè)國(guó)家之間沒(méi)有運(yùn)輸成本Nodifferencesinthepricesofresourcesindifferentcountries;noexchangerates 兩國(guó)資源的價(jià)格沒(méi)有差異Resources(eg

labour,rawmaterials)cannotmoveinternationally 要素（如勞動(dòng)力，原材料）不能跨國(guó)流動(dòng)Noscaleeffects 沒(méi)有規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)Eachcountryhasafixedstockofresources 每個(gè)國(guó)家的資源存量固定Noeffectsonincomedistributionwithinacountry. 貿(mào)易對(duì)各國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的收入分配沒(méi)有影響7Heckscher-OhlinTheory赫克歇爾-俄林理論(P109-110)Ricardostressedthatcomparativeadvantagearosefromdifferencesinproductivity李嘉圖強(qiáng)調(diào)比較優(yōu)勢(shì)源自于生產(chǎn)率的差異TheSwedisheconomistsEliHeckscherandBertilOhlinarguedthatcomparativeadvantagesarosefromdifferencesinnationalfactorendowments瑞典的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾里.赫克歇爾和伯泰.俄林則認(rèn)為比較優(yōu)勢(shì)源自于國(guó)家間要素的稟賦不同Theseareresourcessuchasland,labourandcapital–differentendowmentsexplaindifferentfactorcosts有各種資源,例如土地,勞工和資金-不同的稟賦可以解釋要素成本的差異TheLeontiefParadox:newproductsorgoodsmadewithinnovativetechnologymaybelesscapitalintensivethanthoseusingmaturetechnology里昂惕夫悖論:使用創(chuàng)新科技生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品和提供服務(wù),其資本密集程度可能比那些使用成熟技術(shù)生產(chǎn)者還低8TheProductLife-CycleTheory

產(chǎn)品壽命周期理論(P110-112)RaymondVernonlookedatthedevelopmentofanewproductintheUS.InitiallyitissoldontheUSdomesticmarket.Limiteddemandinotheradvancedcountriesdoesnotmakeitworthwhiletoproducethere–sotheproductisimported.Asdemandgrows,foreignproducersbegintomanufacturetheproduct,orUSfirmsproduceoff-shore.ThepotentialforexportsfromtheUSdecreases.Asthemarketmatures,pricebecomesthemaincompetitiveweapon.Low-costcountriesmaybeabletoexporttotheUS在美國(guó),福農(nóng)研究了有關(guān)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)的問(wèn)題.開(kāi)始的時(shí)候,該產(chǎn)品只是在本土銷售.在其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家中有限的市場(chǎng)需求說(shuō)明不值得在那里生產(chǎn)-因此,產(chǎn)品需要進(jìn)口.當(dāng)需求上升,國(guó)外的生產(chǎn)廠家開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)該產(chǎn)品,或者是美國(guó)公司在海外生產(chǎn).出口的潛力來(lái)自于美國(guó)的生產(chǎn)下降.隨著市場(chǎng)的日趨成熟,價(jià)格成為最主要的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)武器.勞動(dòng)力成本低的國(guó)家可能出口到美國(guó).EvaluatingtheProductLife-CycleTheory評(píng)估產(chǎn)品壽命周期理論9TheNewTradeTheory

新貿(mào)易理論(P113-114)Thistheorywasdevelopedtoexplainthefactthatinmanyindustries,becauseofsubstantialeconomiesofscale,thereareincreasingreturnstospecialisation該理論用于解釋很多行業(yè)的事實(shí),由于存在大的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模效益,專業(yè)化生產(chǎn)的收益是遞增的.Economiesofscaleareprimarilyderivedbyspreadingfixedcostsoveralargeroutput規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的產(chǎn)生主要是因?yàn)楣潭ǔ杀颈环謹(jǐn)偟搅烁蟮漠a(chǎn)量上.Newtradetheoristsarguethatbecauseofsubstantialscaleeconomies,worlddemandwillsupportonlyafewfirmsinmanyindustries:e.g.,aircraftindustry新貿(mào)易理論學(xué)家認(rèn)為由于存在大的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì),在許多行業(yè)中,世界需求只能支持少數(shù)幾家公司贏利Countriesmayexportcertainproductssimplybecausetheyhaveafirmthatwasanearlyentrantinanindustry有些國(guó)家之所以能出口某類產(chǎn)品,是因?yàn)楸緡?guó)很早就有一家公司打入了這些行業(yè).First-moveradvantage先發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)(P113)10NationalCompetitiveAdvantage:Porter’sDiamond

國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì):波特的金剛石(P114-119)In1990MichaelPorterpublishedTheCompetitiveAdvantageofNations,inwhichheexaminedwhysomecountriessucceedandothersfailininternationalcompetition在1990年,米歇爾.波特發(fā)表了“國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)”一書(shū),書(shū)中確定了為什么有些國(guó)家能夠在國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中取勝而其他國(guó)家卻會(huì)失敗.Fourattributespromoteorimpedethecreationofcompetitiveadvantage:四大因素可以促進(jìn)或者阻礙競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的創(chuàng)建: (a) factorendowments要素稟賦 (b) demandconditions需求狀況 (c) relatedandsupportingindustries相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)和輔助產(chǎn)業(yè) (d) firmstrategy,structureandrivalry公司策略,結(jié)構(gòu)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)EvaluatingPorter’stheory對(duì)波特理論的評(píng)價(jià)11Porter’sDiamondofNationalCompetitiveAdvantage

波特的國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的金剛石理論(Porter,1990)

FirmStrategy,Structure&Rivalry公司策略、結(jié)構(gòu)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手

DemandConditions需求條件Related&SupportingIndustries相關(guān)的和輔助產(chǎn)業(yè)FactorConditions要素條件Govern-ment

政府Chance機(jī)會(huì)12InstrumentsofTradePolicy貿(mào)易政策的手段(P134-138)Tariffs(ataxleviedonimports–specifictariffsoradvaloremtariffs)關(guān)稅(對(duì)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品征收的關(guān)稅-從量稅額或從價(jià)稅)Subsidies(governmentpaymenttoadomesticproducer)補(bǔ)貼(政府對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)者的一種資金支付)Importquotasandvoluntaryexportrestraints(importlicences–consider‘voluntariness’)進(jìn)口配額和自愿出口限制(進(jìn)口許可證-可視為“自愿性的”)Localcontentrequirements本地成份要求Anti-dumpingpolicies(sellinggoodsinaforeignmarketbelowcost/fairmarketvalue)反傾銷政策(指在外國(guó)市場(chǎng)以低于成本/公平市場(chǎng)價(jià)值的價(jià)格銷售商品)Administrativetradepolicies(bureaucraticrulesintendedtodiscourageimports–Japan) 管理性貿(mào)易政策(運(yùn)用官僚主義的規(guī)則試圖限制進(jìn)口-日本)13TheCaseforGovernmentIntervention

政府干預(yù)的理由(P138-142)Politicalargumentsforintervention:政府干預(yù)的政治理由 (a) protectingjobsandindustries 保護(hù)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)和重要行業(yè) (b) nationalsecurity國(guó)家安全 (c) retaliation報(bào)復(fù) (d) protectingconsumers保護(hù)消費(fèi)者 (e) furtheringforeignpolicyobjectives 協(xié)助達(dá)成對(duì)外政策目標(biāo) (f) protectinghumanrights保護(hù)人權(quán)Economicargumentsforintervention:政府干預(yù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)理由 (a) infantindustryargument保護(hù)幼稚工業(yè) (b) strategictradepolicy戰(zhàn)略性貿(mào)易政策14TheRevisedCaseforFreeTrade

新的自由貿(mào)易觀點(diǎn)

(P142-143)Therevisedargument(PaulKrugman)isthat,althoughstrategictradepolicyseemsniceintheory,inpracticeitmaybeunworkable新貿(mào)易政策(保羅.克魯格曼)的觀點(diǎn)是:盡管戰(zhàn)略性貿(mào)易政策從理論上講是合理的,但在實(shí)踐中可能行不通Retaliationandtradewar:policiesaimedatensuringdomesticfirmsbecomedominantgloballyboostnationalincomeattheexpenseofothercountries–andinviteretaliation(GATT/WTOseekstoestablishtherulesofthegame)報(bào)復(fù)和貿(mào)易戰(zhàn):政策是以犧牲別國(guó)利益為代價(jià)來(lái)提高本國(guó)在全 球范圍內(nèi)收入的政策-會(huì)招致報(bào)復(fù).(關(guān)稅和貿(mào)易總協(xié)定正努力 確立游戲規(guī)則)Domesticpolitics:governmentsarenotalwaysactinginthenationalinterestwhentheyintervene,butareofteninfluencedbypoliticallyimportantinterestgroups國(guó)內(nèi)政治:政府對(duì)貿(mào)易的干預(yù)并不總是符合國(guó)家的利益,但卻是經(jīng)常受到政治性的重要利益集團(tuán)的影響15DevelopmentoftheGlobalTradingSystem

全球貿(mào)易體系的發(fā)展

(P143-151)FromSmithtotheGreatDepression從史密斯到大蕭條1947-1979:GATT,tradeliberalisationandeconomicgrowth關(guān)稅和貿(mào)易總協(xié)定,貿(mào)易自由化和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)1980-1993:disturbingtrends令人不安的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)TheUruguayRoundandtheWTO烏拉圭回合談判和世界貿(mào)易組織 (a) servicesandintellectualproperty(IP)服務(wù)和知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán) (b) WTO世界貿(mào)易組織 (c) implicationsoftheUruguayRound烏拉圭回合談判的意義WTO:earlyexperience世界貿(mào)易組織:早期經(jīng)驗(yàn)

(a) WTOasaglobalpolicemanWTO充當(dāng)全球性警察 (b) WTO:telecommunicationsagreementWTO:電訊協(xié)定 (c) WTO:financialservicesagreementWTO:財(cái)務(wù)服務(wù)協(xié)定Unresolvedissues：nopoliticalpower,200technocrats,FDI,dumping(DISC’ssubsidy&1bnretaliation),labourrights,environment)

尚待解決的問(wèn)題：沒(méi)有政治權(quán)力，200個(gè)技術(shù)官僚，外國(guó)直接投資，傾銷（光碟產(chǎn)業(yè)的補(bǔ)貼以及10億美元的報(bào)復(fù)），勞工權(quán)利，環(huán)境。16WTOandChinaWTO和中國(guó)PrinciplesofWTO:non-discriminative,mutualbenefits,tariffastheonlybarrier(importtaxforcarsreducedto25%inJuly2006),fairtrade(againstdumping&subsidy)WTO原則：非歧視，互利，關(guān)稅為唯一壁壘（汽車進(jìn)口稅2006年7月下降到25%），平等貿(mào)易（反傾銷和補(bǔ)貼）

Benefits:好處：Optimalresourceallocation,Foreigninvestmentandglobaloperation,Competition,Consumers,Internationalisation,Levelofefficiency,Legalsystem資源最佳分配，外國(guó)投資和全球運(yùn)作，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，消費(fèi)者國(guó)際化，效率水平，法律體系Challenges:挑戰(zhàn)：Infantindustries,powerofgovernmentpolicy,protectionofintellectualproperty,discriminativerequirement,technicalbarriersoftrade幼稚產(chǎn)業(yè)，政府政策的力量，知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)，歧視要求，貿(mào)易的技術(shù)壁壘17WTOandindustryanalysisofChina

WTO和中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)分析Averagetariffforindustrialproductswillbe9.4%by20082008年工業(yè)品的關(guān)稅下降到9.4%WorldNo1outputingarment,silk,coal,cement;famousbrands,labourintensiveindustries世界第一產(chǎn)出行業(yè)，如服裝、絲綢、煤炭、水泥、著名品牌、勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)Carindustry:over600jointventure,$20bninvestment;diseconomyofscale,technology,cost;annualdomesticdemandover10mnin2010(4mnlightvehicles);truckcompetitive

汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)：超過(guò)600家合營(yíng)公司，200億美元投資；非規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)、成本；2010年國(guó)內(nèi)需求超過(guò)1000萬(wàn)輛（400輛輕便車）；卡車競(jìng)爭(zhēng)Telecommunication:expansion;pricereduction電信行業(yè)：擴(kuò)張；降價(jià)18ImplicationsforBusiness1

對(duì)商務(wù)活動(dòng)的影響1Locationimplications:itmakessenseforafirmtodispersevariouspartsofitsproductiontocountrieswheretheycanbeperformedmostefficiently地理位置的影響:讓那些為了使其生產(chǎn)最有效率化,而將其生產(chǎn)基地的不同組成部分分布到不同國(guó)家的公司有一定的感性認(rèn)識(shí)First-moverimplications:itpaystoinvestheavilyintryingtobuildafirst-moverorearly-moveradvantage,evenifthismeansinitialheavylosses第一個(gè)進(jìn)入者的影響:為了獲得在市場(chǎng)中作為第一個(gè)進(jìn)入者或最早進(jìn)入者的優(yōu)勢(shì),投入了很大的 投資,即使這也可能意味著最初的重大損失Policyimplications:freetradeisinthebestinterestsofcountrie