內容目錄營收與利潤：前三季度營收提升，歸母凈利潤強勢修復 6盈利能力：前三季度毛利率略增，費用率下降，歸母凈利率修復 10現(xiàn)金流：經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比改善，凈現(xiàn)比表現(xiàn)優(yōu)秀 16投資與研發(fā)：在建工程增速下滑，擴產(chǎn)周期拐點或再確認 18償債能力：25Q3行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率改善，償債壓力可控 21四季度投資建議 22風險提示 24附錄：本文455家分析公司樣本名單 25圖表目錄圖1.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)營收及同比增速 6圖2.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)歸母凈利潤及同比增速 6圖3.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度營收及同比增速 6圖4.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度歸母凈利潤及同比增速 6圖5.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)毛利率 10圖6.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度毛利率 10圖7.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)期間費用率 11圖8.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度期間費用率 11圖9.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)研發(fā)費用率 13圖10.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度研發(fā)費用率 13圖11.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率 14圖12.化工行業(yè)單季度歸母凈利潤率 14圖13.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度ROE（年化） 15圖14.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流及同比增速 16圖15.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流及同比增速 16圖16.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)凈現(xiàn)比 17圖17.化工行業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)與在建工程以及對應同比增速 18圖18.化工行業(yè)在建工程占固定資產(chǎn)比例及同比變動 19圖19.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度資本性支出規(guī)模及同比增20圖20.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度資本性支出占營業(yè)收入比20圖21.化工行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率 21表1：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)營業(yè)收入同比變動情況 7表2：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)歸母凈利潤同比變動情況 8表3：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度營業(yè)收入同比變動情8表4：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度歸母凈利潤同比變動情況 9表5：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)毛利率情況 10表6：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度毛利率情況 11表7：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)期間費用率情況 12表8：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度期間費用率情況 13表9：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率情況 14表10：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度歸母凈利潤率情15表11：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度ROE（年化）情況 16表12：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比變動情況 17表13：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比變動情18表14：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度在建工程同比變動情19表15：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度在建程占固定資產(chǎn)比重 20表16：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度資本性支出同比變動情21表17：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度資產(chǎn)負債率情況 22表18：本文455家分析公司樣本名單 25202510311431業(yè)的455家公司作為本報告所分析的公司樣本名單（注：由于名單內各公司上市時間不同，若樣本分析期間中有公司暫未上市，則不納入當期數(shù)據(jù)分析）前三季度營收同比略微上升，歸母凈利潤逆轉下降趨勢。25Q1-Q318663.84+2.961126.98+7.54，年以來的連續(xù)下降趨勢。圖1.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)營收及同比增速 圖2.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)歸母凈利潤及同比增速50000

行業(yè)營業(yè)收入（億元） 同比（

60300

0

行業(yè)歸母凈利潤（億元） 同比（）150100500-50-100 國投券證研究所 國投券證研究所24Q324Q2373.72+17.8424Q221.69pct于底部區(qū)域震蕩，三季度CCPI指數(shù)均值錄得4021.69點，同比-11.37，環(huán)比-1.90圖3.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度營收及同比增速 圖4.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度歸母凈利潤及同比增速8000600040002000

行業(yè)營業(yè)收入（億元） 同比（

3020100

0

行業(yè)歸母凈利潤（億元） 同比（

40200-20-402022Q2022Q2022Q2022Q2023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32022Q2022Q2022Q2022Q2023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q前三季度19個子行業(yè)營業(yè)收入同比增長，1125Q1-Q3細化工及新材（+22.94膠黏劑及膠+16.64氟化（+16.09民爆制品(+15.93性塑料(+15.64)、鉀肥(+14.51)等19個子行業(yè)營收同比增長，純(-35.89)、有硅(-16.80)、無機鹽(-6.32、塑料制品(-5.64)、炭黑(-5.10)、鈦白粉(-4.15)等11個子行業(yè)營收同比下滑。2019202020212019202020212022202320242025Q1-Q3其他精細化工及新材料14.8118.46100.5185.91-15.65-18.2722.9417.1827.7440.9325.5811.726.1016.64氟化工1.83-1.0830.9727.48-9.7713.7316.09民爆制品8.437.2227.5343.8914.46-5.0515.93改性塑料20.5222.2719.578.9115.4617.1415.64鉀肥2.69-19.138.00105.68-22.07-22.4014.51合成樹脂0.8043.2414.298.31-5.278.2414.22煤化工-8.70-2.6652.310.62-3.209.2012.05輪胎4.693.517.195.6717.9413.0910.66電子化學品Ⅲ13.3712.8238.6811.33-5.971.155.91其他化學原料-8.72-0.9989.8618.26-1.7011.325.48農(nóng)藥7.379.8421.4524.50-20.54-3.325.13復合肥2.88-1.3020.8119.16-0.13-3.865.03氮肥-2.16-3.1638.757.80-14.634.724.69橡膠助劑-0.81-5.5225.6820.026.334.742.90食品及飼料添加劑2.2412.8727.2926.96-5.178.842.61膜材料16.114.2522.775.83-3.726.612.11橡膠制品21.0010.3831.1410.424.0817.430.88其他化學制品-2.14-0.6033.699.66-18.171.290.81氯堿12.913.63-1.97-4.95-15.97-2.19-0.39聚氨酯6.417.2691.1311.965.094.09-2.00化纖17.3115.5335.094.497.884.87-3.16涂料油墨25.326.2626.93-5.62-4.8511.95-3.69磷肥及磷化工3.531.1027.3924.99-10.62-3.74-3.79鈦白粉10.9423.6348.7512.373.657.21-4.15炭黑-8.07-13.8446.4723.93-2.185.54-5.10塑料制品-7.941.2311.4830.04-2.209.63-5.64無機鹽50.43-2.8943.1531.25-8.27-9.45-6.32有機硅-11.884.3996.6015.69-2.883.19-16.80純堿-6.65-11.6943.5911.62-4.85-6.02-35.89國投證券證券研究所；注：對于化工各子行業(yè)的統(tǒng)計，樣本與總結分析中的455家公司完全一致，后同前三季度1614潤同比提升較大的子行業(yè)包括農(nóng)藥（+31346.91、氟化工（+124.56、膠黏劑及膠（+91.69）、鉀肥（+62.24）、其他精細化工及新材料（+58.38）、煤化工（+40.29）、氯堿（+30.24）；而有機硅（-73.04）、純堿（-68.69）、鈦白粉（-46.30）、橡膠制品（-42.58）、無機鹽（-41.64）等子行業(yè)歸母凈利潤同比下降較多。其中，農(nóng)藥板塊或主要得益庫存逐步回歸正常水平，部分產(chǎn)品價格出現(xiàn)回暖跡象，疊加前期較低基數(shù)影響，致歸母凈利潤增速迅速反彈；氟化工板塊凈利潤增長較快或主要系新能源汽車及儲能市場高速擴張，拉動鋰電池電解質、粘結劑等關鍵含氟化學品的需求；膠黏劑及膠帶或主要受益于新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中鋰電用膠、整車用膠等產(chǎn)品需求爆發(fā)，疊加半導體光刻膠、電子封裝材料等高端品類自主開發(fā)加速推進。而第三季度有機硅受單體廠開工偏高、出口增速放緩等影響，行業(yè)供需失衡局面未得到實質性改善，一定程度制約了價格修復動力；純堿或受供應壓力持續(xù)增加，而下游浮法、光伏玻璃需求支撐有限影響，導致價格震蕩偏弱，企業(yè)庫存壓力凸顯；鈦白粉的消費結構中，內需占比超70，以房地產(chǎn)為首的需求疲軟是導致其價格持續(xù)下行的核心原因之一。表2：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)歸母凈利潤同比變動情況國投證券證券研究所三季度單季17個子行業(yè)營收同比增長，13個子行業(yè)營收同比下跌。24Q3鉀肥（+34.92細化工及新材料（+24.37膠黏劑及膠帶（+21.00民爆制品（+13.79、煤化（+13.54、電子化學品III（+12.49）等17個子行業(yè)營業(yè)收入增速表現(xiàn)較好，有機硅（-1954純（-12.7其他化學原-1.90塑料制（-9.97涂料油9.64）132022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3鉀肥149.98193.0538.6077.77-30.23-38.610.32-11.27-33.00-8.85-33.65-15.5724.27-7.4434.92其他精細化工及新材料147.2676.2992.8459.426.31-7.00-14.00-38.92-34.58-15.71-26.729.8927.9717.2924.37膠黏劑及膠帶63.9321.2628.506.8114.5110.8112.799.312.6510.023.238.2312.1815.9921.00民爆制品43.6946.0349.2838.5632.7827.2617.32-7.46-10.45-11.72-3.834.9915.2918.5513.79煤化工18.524.19-10.70-6.09-5.91-20.725.0412.646.8724.763.263.729.3712.7713.54電子化學品Ⅲ49.7030.834.22-17.83-13.50-9.030.47-1.354.084.20-3.960.622.392.9512.49輪胎-3.374.0918.304.1710.0914.7318.0828.5420.9013.278.0511.7310.229.8511.81合成樹脂42.37-1.9331.61-8.73-11.26-5.9434.36-26.5113.6619.91-10.9216.9121.7912.499.95改性塑料18.185.0911.952.924.1113.6427.1515.7113.0911.8512.4429.4924.3916.098.76氮肥43.0311.57-9.83-5.19-15.34-27.311.36-13.50-5.5614.83-1.6812.91-2.878.148.28復合肥40.3443.63-6.36-0.40-0.99-21.2030.196.14-13.6517.13-10.95-8.8220.88-8.477.61聚氨酯30.3826.712.75-7.75-0.87-3.728.8019.2710.4111.2210.82-16.63-6.15-5.775.61農(nóng)藥37.3340.3230.49-2.93-13.65-23.74-21.49-22.87-11.07-5.43-0.175.203.357.024.80膜材料21.3231.97-14.70-4.24-2.81-13.822.221.092.416.940.5616.592.360.323.67氟化工51.7438.0325.986.27-9.80-12.563.54-18.841.876.7423.6320.9221.2328.522.54磷肥及磷化工39.3443.1315.536.39-5.63-22.75-3.76-7.29-9.104.67-9.07-1.413.39-15.182.37橡膠助劑22.7323.9124.579.783.42-0.8615.756.939.505.75-5.1710.516.310.711.78橡膠制品33.151.2521.48-3.20-5.4415.691.313.9225.477.6320.5018.533.33-0.23-0.08其他化學制品22.7617.699.55-6.38-12.78-24.56-16.19-18.08-7.242.902.097.193.03-0.07-0.26食品及飼料添加劑16.2416.3611.0758.467.634.7312.83-29.924.629.1612.469.037.672.60-1.97氯堿-10.5033.081.39-28.78-17.58-14.59-11.55-20.33-10.89-12.411.2716.784.96-2.07-3.49化纖15.89-0.33-0.134.40-4.697.2618.959.3414.6512.15-1.58-2.53-3.30-2.26-3.94炭黑9.6928.2138.1419.3118.01-14.23-7.11-0.241.1812.252.326.58-2.18-7.62-5.2756.9132.45-3.937.29-21.71-7.58-8.16-21.492.68-7.43-10.01-1.54-9.56-7.28鈦白粉32.0517.010.882.591.77-10.8220.185.487.2712.411.288.762.38-5.74-9.22涂料油墨36.23-23.9348.79-44.02-16.3932.88-26.9010.408.1412.4012.1514.434.74-4.53-9.64塑料制品30.1535.8538.1116.702.09-5.15-7.152.612.3214.1811.5610.05-2.71-3.62-9.97其他化學原料57.1833.256.60-7.13-4.14-10.13-1.4810.96-1.462.8522.3120.2129.095.88-11.90純堿27.6626.20-3.410.730.36-20.30-2.275.81-2.845.88-5.70-19.74-17.04-19.31-12.87有機硅78.9675.14-9.28-25.25-10.63-19.4815.737.70-4.1319.79-2.880.92-0.98-26.52-19.54國投證券證券研究所三季度單季1911潤同比提升幅度較大的子行業(yè)有膠黏劑及膠帶（+241.13、農(nóng)藥（+173.01、氟化（+169.87（+134.53（+106.88（+78.43改性塑料+44.34；鈦白粉-77.86、純堿（63.48、有機硅-55.21、其他（54.91-51.74-49.59表4：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度歸母凈利潤同比變動情況國投證券證券研究所2025202220252018來相對底部位置。三季度單季行業(yè)毛利率同環(huán)比皆修復。單三季度行業(yè)毛利率為17.08，同比+0.84pct，環(huán)比+0.03pct。圖5.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)毛利率 圖6.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度毛利率25

行業(yè)毛利率（）

行業(yè)毛利率（）17.10%1017.10%

國投券證研究所 國投券證研究所17.08%前三季度1614+7.79pc（+6.73pct（+1.94pct（+1.92pct+1.92pct）-6.94pct（-6.17pct17.08%（-4.46pct、無機鹽4.08pct）5：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)毛利率情況國投證券證券研究所三季度單季15個子行業(yè)毛利率環(huán)比上升，15個子行業(yè)毛利率環(huán)比下滑。其中合成樹脂（+8.73pct+3.28pct+2.93pct+1.78pct毛利率漲幅居前；而鈦白粉-5.0pct、無機鹽-3.09pct、橡膠助劑（-2.69pct、氮肥（-2.61pct、其他精細化工及新材料（-2.39pct）等毛利率下降較多。表6：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度毛利率情況國投證券證券研究所2025Q1-Q3中銷售費用率1.99同比-0.02pct管理費用率3.58同比-0.04pct財務費用率0.9同比-0.08pct。三項費用率均小幅下降，且拉長周期看化工行業(yè)當前期間費用率仍處于較低水平。2025Q3比同比-0.08pct，環(huán)比+0.13pct1.21，同比-0.05pct，環(huán)比+0.33，整體呈波動上升的趨勢。圖7.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)期間費用率 圖8.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度期間費用率6.54%156.54%10

行業(yè)期間費用率（）

6.80%5行業(yè)期間費用率6.80%5 國投券證研究所 國投券證研究所前三季度1515+1.70pc+1.34pct+1.10pct+0.98pct（+0.63pct-1.97pct（-0.95pct-0.90pct、膠黏劑及膠帶-0.84pct、橡膠助劑-0.77pct）表7：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)期間費用率情況國投證券證券研究所三季度單季23個子行業(yè)期間費用率環(huán)比上升，7個子行業(yè)環(huán)比下降。其中涂料油墨（+4.17pct、煤化工+3.94pct、民爆制品+1.68pct、復合肥+1.12pct、聚氨酯（+1.04pct）期間費用率環(huán)比漲幅居前；而農(nóng)藥1.24pct、橡膠助劑（-0.45pct、氮肥（-0.29pct）期間費用率環(huán)比下降較多。表8：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度期間費用率情況國投證券證券研究所2025Q1-Q3本呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)中微增趨勢。三季度單季行業(yè)研發(fā)費用率同比微增。2.88，同比環(huán)比+0.08pct222.5-3區(qū)間運行。圖9.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)研發(fā)費用率 圖10.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度研發(fā)費用率3

行業(yè)研發(fā)費用率（）2.88%2 32.88%21100國投券證研究所 國投券證研究所2025Q1-Q36.04+0.26p。三季度單季行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率同比顯著提升。單三季度行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率為5.84，同比+0.77pct，環(huán)比-0.14pct，2022年以來波動下滑，但2024年底以來修復趨勢明顯。圖11.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率 圖12.化工行業(yè)單季度歸母凈利潤率6.04%126.04%1086420

行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率()

1510

歸母凈利潤率（）5.84%國投券證研究所 國投券證研究所5.84%前三季度1515+10.72pc（+5.96pct（+3.36pct+3.03pct-5.38pct（-5.09pct（-4.16pct輪胎-3.83pct、無機鹽-3.37pct）表9：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率情況國投證券證券研究所三季度單季13個子行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率環(huán)比上升，17個子行業(yè)環(huán)比下降。其中有機硅（+6.52pct、鉀肥（+6.38pct、磷肥及磷化工+1.89pct、膠黏劑及膠帶（+1.26pct（+0.92pct-5.21pct（-4.38pct無機鹽-3.35pct、其他化學原料-1.92pct、涂料油墨（-1.78pct）等子行業(yè)歸母凈利潤率下降較多。表10：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度歸母凈利潤率情況國投證券證券研究所三季度單季行業(yè)ROE單三季度行業(yè)ROE7.11+0.76pct2024圖13.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度ROE（年化）10107.11%5

國投證券證券研究所

行業(yè)ROE（）三季度單季11ROE19個子行業(yè)ROE+4.71pc（+4.10pct（+3.42pct+2.40pct（+1.84pct（+1.37pctROE-4.77pct-4.09pct（-3.21pct、氮肥（-3.20pct、其他化學原料-2.76pct）ROE前三季度行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比改善。2025Q1-Q3行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流為1889.45億元，同比+20.33。從凈現(xiàn)比看，2019年以來行業(yè)盈利質量始終較好，凈現(xiàn)比均高于1。三季度單季行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比增長。2025Q3行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流為806.20億元，同比+9.75，環(huán)比-17.76。圖14.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流及同比增速

圖15.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流及同比增速0

行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流（億元） YOY（

40200-20-40

0

行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流（億元） 同比（）2500200015005002022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3-500國投券證研究所 國投券證研究所圖16.2019-2025Q1-Q3化工行業(yè)凈現(xiàn)比行業(yè)凈現(xiàn)比3.632.103.632.101.721.801.601.051.213.02.01.00.02019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Q1-Q3國投證券證券研究所前三季度525（+51.37復合肥+29.13、塑料制品（+28.37、橡膠制品+14.54-121.60（69.46（-68.90（-60.09）表12：2019-2025Q1-Q3化工各子行業(yè)經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比變動情況國投證券證券研究所三季度單季1515+577.89、炭黑（+504.92、改性塑料+402.40、復合肥+220.45（+207.59-84.30-61.97-60.32-52.71經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比增速表佳。表13：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比變動情況國投證券證券研究所行業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)、在建工程同比增速繼續(xù)下滑。2025+15.8620243.78pct-16.66202425.62pct2022圖17.化工行業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)與在建工程以及對應同比增速固定資產(chǎn)合計（億元） 在建工程合計（億元）固定資產(chǎn)合計同比（，右軸） 在建工程合計同比（，右軸）180001800016000140001200010000800006050403020100-10-202019 2020 2021 20222024 2025Q1-Q32023化工企業(yè)在建工程增速顯著放緩國投證券證券研究所行業(yè)在建工程占固定資產(chǎn)比例顯著改善。2025年前三季度基礎化工行業(yè)在建工程占固定資產(chǎn)比例為23.73，同比-9.26pct，2024年同比-0.84pct，降幅擴大8.42pct。我們認為，反內卷倡議下化工行業(yè)產(chǎn)能擴張步伐開始趨于理性，前期擴產(chǎn)產(chǎn)能有望得到有效消化，化工供需格局改善應屬確定性趨勢。圖18.化工行業(yè)在建工程占固定資產(chǎn)比例及同比變動同比變動（pct） 在建工程占固定資產(chǎn)比例（）0

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Q1-Q3

9630(3)(6)(9)(12)國投證券證券研究所三季度單季1218+77.38（+59.09+26.70+25.21-66.44（-47.64塑料制品-45.06、聚氨酯-43.33）2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3純堿-39.74-33.09265.25813.341082.32894.730.42-32.23-35.59-51.07-1.507.076.6268.3677.38鉀肥-51.64-43.42-30.05139.04185.08202.90132.2147.6543.9017.4545.6362.5447.0172.1159.09復合肥48.1489.4640.7865.0949.5364.9695.9146.4227.01-5.58-17.79-15.51-16.46-1.2226.70食品及飼料添加劑53.2922.75-17.021.2810.0624.4748.08-11.88-7.68-18.68-10.3916.267.6814.3925.21合成樹脂32.697.1818.648.067.40-30.01-23.31-18.98-19.4751.3034.9722.0937.7314.2617.90涂料油墨45.70-31.10-20.08-26.46-35.4167.936.772.3716.34-36.82-34.72-3.044.2329.3617.16磷肥及磷化工17.8539.3346.0048.8910.79-2.695.79-9.69-0.54-2.90-7.6818.0112.31-1.895.79無機鹽58.4140.9746.0430.1824.5530.02-26.57-30.87-34.33-27.2631.9434.5627.3327.855.03民爆制品-22.58-24.06-46.3522.9513.5415.2759.7053.0255.1053.7348.1916.038.103.674.42輪胎53.4423.9521.2212.2826.1226.9518.39-3.33-6.39-7.83-16.846.7717.979.291.80氟化工33.4380.35142.7492.3973.7252.573.24-4.44-4.02-9.8629.1633.1033.6324.781.45電子化學品Ⅲ-6.3965.1876.84110.66100.1649.6078.2144.2246.5034.1215.5614.279.427.431.02化纖41.8818.5438.6948.6733.0712.945.39-28.59-6.2720.7735.2784.0647.1723.35-1.67鈦白粉65.7666.6666.5634.0420.2236.0353.8713.7211.88-30.17-38.06-35.37-36.40-9.99-2.68氮肥-28.89-36.54-21.56109.86174.81259.26193.78-14.24-52.71-58.88-54.5051.88133.6171.20-3.14有機硅191.27131.00128.40121.79140.48136.94121.60130.8131.3314.55-7.84-15.41-4.00-4.9168.8389.365.850.354.462.1051.7855.4144.7133.08-31.28-28.76-10.46-5.88膜材料87.5582.2454.8750.2437.8031.598.39-7.22-2.96-11.17-11.10-26.14-37.34-22.96-6.13氯堿13.7227.7234.1599.0290.9791.7266.3931.7416.97-3.44-5.52-7.18-19.37-12.25-10.90其他化學原料-43.9913.6728.2914.4262.1651.0234.3031.31-13.41-18.47-36.35-31.12-43.56-46.12-14.18橡膠助劑118.55157.4065.2963.0230.82-29.45-23.21-10.87-11.1410.49-4.92-24.11-22.376.98-16.06農(nóng)藥33.3532.2743.3830.5037.2431.8726.8716.9520.8021.557.03-11.18-19.86-23.56-17.47其他化學制品42.1540.3726.3919.9717.198.0417.3121.5314.15-3.69-1.90-13.17-15.77-9.67-19.86改性塑料346.04350.53107.6359.2837.64-23.72-28.54-23.63-10.7621.1914.822.10-6.95-32.89-30.66其他精細化工及新材料23.8517.583.49154.34276.89173.09133.9757.6315.438.63-2.29-39.53-39.22-45.09-38.33聚氨酯22.4027.0640.5628.9324.2626.8411.6135.7754.9035.3447.3324.61-15.63-32.29-43.33塑料制品56.28-2.41-2.9729.6562.1241.9654.49-8.181.4816.596.70120.42100.06-34.03-45.06煤化工127.78129.51122.2792.6072.9546.15-1.75-26.47-29.04-12.0741.6068.83-6.12-36.56-46.25膠黏劑及膠帶54.1682.1958.46-8.46-19.9020.0165.9179.7999.1049.5750.447.87-27.78-47.94-47.64橡膠制品25.9844.8577.9882.67147.59234.88217.45269.37204.8782.2453.570.25-7.83-68.37-66.44國投證券證券研究所三季度單季23-92.49pc（38.08pct（-25.13pct21.51pct（-16.26pct）資本開支占固定資產(chǎn)比重同比下降明顯；而鉀肥+22.29pct、純堿（+7.90pct、復合肥（+4.47pct、食品及飼料添加劑+3.12pct）15：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度在建工程占固定資產(chǎn)比重國投證券證券研究所2025Q3+10.81+27.059.05環(huán)比+1.93pct。三季度雖有回升，但整體資本性支出絕對值與占營業(yè)收入比例趨勢均向下。圖19.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度資本性支出規(guī)模及同比增速

圖20.2022年以來化工行業(yè)單季度資本性支出占營業(yè)收入比例200

行業(yè)總資本性支出（億元） 同比（） 行業(yè)資本性支出占營收比例（）9.05%5809.05%56040200-200-4002022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3國投券證研究所 國投券證研究所三季度單季17個子行業(yè)資本性支出同比收縮，13個子行業(yè)同比擴張。其中無機鹽（+1599.52、鉀肥（+151.31、煤化工+114.80、磷肥及磷化工（+72.88墨+63.90）資本性支出漲幅居前；而氮肥-47.53、合成樹脂（-45.04、鈦白粉42.90、改性塑料-38.30、其他化學原料（-32.95）同比下降較多。表16：2022年以來化工各子行業(yè)單季度資本性支出同比變動情況2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3無機鹽35.84-48.67188.88-7.90-10.69-47.08-71.6819.8878.82306.4536.45-13.21-61.4835.251599.52鉀肥-45.4166.8790.06210.62177.27-17.3372.10-29.8257.2778.38-69.9818.36-24.6624.79151.31煤化工40.1531.4051.2931.06-3.5818.105.55-57.98-56.3246.46-71.6581.7173.56-57.40114.80磷肥及磷化工101.51109.5311.12330.14-2.49-54.86-29.69-46.36-38.62-22.01-18.8635.7128.2350.9072.88涂料油墨20.85-0.033.7676.346.68-38.24-20.76-29.2911.5129.86-7.929.28-15.65-5.4263.90民爆制品-3.1613.1962.1332.7624.7838.8413.8618.2519.92-41.25-57.96-19.18-40.984.2662.93塑料制品-2.29-1.8910.6484.6331.27-33.1946.73-5.3313.37136.09-58.1418.62-26.83-20.7852.39膠黏劑及膠帶81.85482.03-25.5642.93-26.1056.2627.33-43.3356.4019.88-51.7645.12-17.85-32.8550.18輪胎-13.05-5.516.8533.02-21.437.376.38-55.8376.811.14-29.04255.37-10.90-36.6849.01食品及飼料添加劑6.9732.27-9.2332.6510.9921.0813.63-65.39-6.49-35.37-13.6685.54-0.0926.8340.21氟化工101.61174.51119.24247.448.130.20-24.59-2.66-32.04-6.746.94-24.083.49-49.1118.70純堿-20.36591.97962.0523.42399.92520.15-56.48257.26-27.21-61.2939.20-15.4042.1016.7912.84橡膠制品-0.1332.2097.74-10.06219.04193.3950.31115.20-18.31-65.31-73.66-30.63-54.3630.709.75農(nóng)藥-3.6615.46-12.9127.465.130.12-13.89-19.564.34-44.93-1.80-2.12-21.9216.069.34膜材料35.5917.1212.5117.90-15.0529.82-7.352.155.90-26.85-39.97-10.55-35.44-6.307.98炭黑1.97-0.24-21.50225.1069.54130.5344.70198.99117.12-9.86-15.31-25.97-24.6660.674.43復合肥79.768.952.0962.5890.13212.73-45.22-28.54-17.30-54.3617.24-29.154.19有機硅219.4841.3813.61179.97105.51-39.80-63.36-92.22-96.49-91.42-19.281.76-0.91其他精細化工及新材料70.7996.51107.798.1752.8386.9221.59-7.51-17.65-49.39-62.19-8.34-42.76-46.93-4.73電子化學品Ⅲ125.5956.4631.9940.8613.20-39.3644.5016.9512.0235.38-12.47-31.44-25.8620.58-4.84其他化學制品37.3453.893.6176.86-15.29-29.38-17.15-18.11-1.263.31-19.78-39.32-3.84-26.60-5.85氯堿13.8759.3397.6253.0837.2642.8111.1238.5310.02-12.0212.80-14.46-7.80-14.58-16.49橡膠助劑-18.12-6.5598.27-83.2621.6667.82-35.89-15.546.84-43.31-14.74173.3920.97105.02-17.32化纖8.463.88-26.33-23.57-14.61-12.2115.13-49.4918.0877.2431.38171.08-4.87-11.59-24.53聚氨酯-8.4449.63-1.4128.7878.64-96.5225.74-96.165.823231.361.101249.96-17.73-10.46-31.00其他化學原料-25.17-3.51540.77146.6554.8295.98-30.07-27.52-9.88-50.04-42.3411.72-55.76-58.32-32.95改性塑料127.5235.20-20.1515.38-18.78-63.46-12.02-57.03-34.0620.59-42.0927.27-23.981.05-38.30鈦白粉742.11934.3220.14466.2918.4828.13-41.63-76.38-42.64-82.59-4.68-31.94-25.39-31.27-42.90合成樹脂4.3944.76-0.3537.05-13.16100.69160.0426.2723.89-45.6811.88-14.9758.5972.85-45.04氮肥55.0074.88101.13117.6461.1942.7428.78-32.07-7.58-58.41-4.9517.8934.2477.74-47.53國投證券證券研究所償債能力：三季度單季行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率微增。截至2025Q3，基礎化工行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率45.21，環(huán)比-0.22pct，2022年以來資產(chǎn)負債率呈現(xiàn)溫和增長趨勢，我們認為行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率整體處于可控水平。圖21.化工行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率50

行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率（

48.02%45403530國投證券證券研究所三季度單季112025Q3+6.09pct、純堿（+1.48pct、膠黏劑及膠帶（+1.40pctII（+0.89pct（+0.65pct-2.02pct（-1.78pct（-1.15pct（-1.12pct氟化工（-1.11pct）無機鹽純堿無機鹽純堿膠黏劑及膠帶電子化學品Ⅲ復合肥化纖食品及飼料添加劑民爆制品其他精細化工及新材料農(nóng)藥橡膠制品其他化學原料其他化學制品炭黑煤化工輪胎鉀肥膜材料鈦白粉氟化工聚氨酯磷肥及磷化工2022Q140.7240.692022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q140.0139.0937.1835.5035.4134.8731.5631.4541.9644.4045.1244.7045.3843.1442.0445.9247.1447.3247.3049.3449.6449.9850.8651.5027.6928.6927.8030.2930.7031.4230.1628.5956.1550.1531.5646.8844.8052.4836.8544.0342.5232.6940.9437.3139.0851.3948.2143.4256.2140.7545.6331.6050.7838.8261.0637.5335.2556.9356.3155.9155.6755.0253.2955.0855.2451.3951.2647.3749.5551.8551.4348.8828.9455.7652.312024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q432.0532.1130.3339.9540.8041.2752.66 53.12 30.66 0 22025Q130.5741.2652.2430.922025Q2 2025Q332.1738.2544.0745.5433.6347.4047.3052.4839.5845.9044.0239.1143.3138.5842.8752.3447.0744.1356.3836.0747.1333.4252.5740.0661.9436.7636.8454.1231.5433.1433.6932.5132.0032.3146.6147.7346.2346.4946.8246.362043.0852.5738.6847.7543.4141.3243.7735.5542.6451.6545.1844.8557.0031.7444.1135.4453.1441.9361.6937.2435.1153.4144.3243.8545.5547.0550.9550.6750.6251.5351.7231.2849.9951.9140.2347.4241.6147.4842.9337.7643.6650.9845.0143.6457.4328.4343.0834.4055.7343.1557.4937.4336.4549.9441.0243.4844.3245.9951.8351.0749.6851.5340.5544.3840.6840.7640.4246.1450.3842.0942.4148.9149.8452.7454.0954.7154.3455.7431.98 53.1053.7451.6852.2031.8832.3846.6847.0349.2949.4351.8451.9246.5246.5450.3850.3442.6942.6353.9953.8944.7642.7432.3433.1944.1746.4050.7451.3944.3346.2943.6845.7957.4758.2625.9825.1641.9041.9834.3336.5253.4452.5243.1544.8261.7262.5035.3137.1936.6036.8650.6750.7641.3441.3644.5143.7043.0232.8146.6850.6246.0746.2858.6028.7543.4336.8951.9344.7962.8337.8338.0150.2634.2331.5932.4034.2243.4333.95