1、Bob Hayward,Technology Trends 2004-2008,These materials can be reproduced only with Gartners official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail - .,The Long View Mid-Life Pause For Breath for IT-based Transformation of Business,Silicon Age,?,Mainframes,PCs,Physical Connectivity,Logical Co

2、nnectivity,Embedded Connectivity,Relativeimportance,2,Technology Laws and Innovation Continue,Moores Law The Fifth Paradigm,10-6,10-4,10-2,10,10+2,10+4,10+6,10+8,10+10,1900,1910,1920,1930,1940,1950,1960,1970,1980,1990,2000,Exponential Scale,Calculations Per Second Per $1,000.,Electromechanical,Relay

3、,Vacuum Tube,Transistor,Integrated Circuit,3,The Hype Cycle,Trough ofDisillusionment,Slope ofEnlightenment,Plateau ofProductivity,Maturity,TechnologyTrigger,Peak of InflatedExpectations,Positive Hype,NegativeHype,Do not join in just because it is in,Do not miss out just because it is out,4,Technolog

4、y Trigger,Peak of Inflated Expectations,Trough of Disillusionment,Slope of Enlightenment,Plateau of Productivity,Maturity,Visibility,As of May 2003,Instant messaging, retail,Instant messaging, corporate,Mobile applications, retail,Mobile applications, corporate,Mobile payments,Speech and voice techn

5、ologies,Grid computing,Data mining,Web services,Artificial intelligence,Intelligent agents/push technology,Sales planning and pricing tools,Partner relationship management (PRM),Biometrics,Chip-based cards, corporate,Contact chip cards, Europe,Contact chip cards, U.S.,E-tag,Network identity services

6、,E-signatures,Document imaging,Document management/archive,Business rules engine,Emerging technologies hype cycle,Benefit,Maturity,New business models,New processes,Improved processes,Moderate: Usable with motivation,Low: demonstrations, prototypes and pilots,Radar Screen,6,Technologies at Different

7、 Speeds,Long-fusetechnologies,One to two decades from trigger to plateau Science-fiction-like fascination Inherent complexity, business implications. Reliance on certain infrastructure, skills,“Fast Track” Technologies,Two to four years from trigger to plateau Performance peaks early Uses current in

8、frastructure/standards Easy to use Vendor support,IM, SMS, USB Flash Cards.,Smart Dust,Speech Recognition,Handwriting Recognition,Machine Translation,Intelligent Clothes,“Intelligent Agents”,Holographic Storage,E-mail,Internet,Desktop Videoconferencing,Biometrics,Tele-Immersion,Fiber optics,Nano-Com

9、puting,DNA-Computing,“Autonomic Computing”,Quantum-Decryption,Gartner Predicts: Ten Hot Technologies 2004,The Top Ten Technologies Instant Messaging Real Time Data Warehouse WiFi Security Internal Web Services Policy based management IP Telephony Utility Computing Grid Computing Network Security Tec

10、hnologies RFID Tags,Maturing in 18-36 months,Wider Applicability,Lowered Risk,Issues Resolved,8,Instant Messaging in the Enterprise,Values: Presence Service Real-time No rewind Low overhead,Other Issues: Lack of audit trail QoS limitations Poor integration capability Lost record of decisions Text fo

11、cused, limited media,Security concerns: Data protection Privacy Tamper resistance,9,“Creative Scheduling”,DW,ETL,ETL,ETL,ETL,ETL,ETL,Source,Source,Source,Source,Replication,Source,Source,Source,Source,DW,Data Warehouse As An Application,DW,Integration Broker,Source,Source,Source,Source,Target Apps.,

12、Avoid The Issue No Data Warehouse!,Source,Source,Source,Source,BI Tools and Applications,DW,ETL,Options for developing a Real-Time Data Warehouse,10,On the Cusp of the Most Fundamental Change to Business Since The Internet,IT Architecture, concepts and business philosophy have reached a critical tip

13、ping point: Service Oriented Architectures (SOA), Event Driven Architectures (EDA), Service Oriented Business Applications (SOBA), Service Oriented Development of Applications (SODA), Web Services, Real Time Enterprise (RTE), Business Process Management (BPM) and Modeling and Business Process Fusion

14、 gaining major traction and move towards critical mass and mainstream adoption,Maturity in these areas will drive dramatic changes in the way we do business, to a degree not seen since the advent of the Internet,11,Integration of IT and Business Processes,High,Low,No Business Is an Island: The Incre

15、ased Dependence on IT for Business Processes,12,Software As Product License model Customization required Post implementation hosting Expensive,Software As Service Speed to solution Rental model Remote delivery Vertical templates Medium cost,Business Services Application agnostic Net-native software

16、Pay for use Business process focused Lower cost,Time 2014,Business Focus Transactions to Process Innovation,Flexible Application Platform Portal, Integration, App Server, APS, SOA,Leverage Enterprise Knowledge Content, Data, Analytics, Relationship Mgmt,Transaction Processing ERP, SCM, Customer Tran

17、sactions, etc.,Business Collaboration Smart Enterprise Suites, Multienterprise,End-to-End Processing Business Process Fusion,20,Gartner Predicts: Application Development Models, Toolsets Are Changing,1M,2M,3M,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,New Projects Programming Models,Professional Developers,COBOL

18、,Visual Basic 6 and lower,C/C+,Java,C#,Visual Basic .NET,21,Static and Unshared Islands,Service A,Edge,Application,Database,Service B,Service C,Inefficient Overprovisioned Hard to manage,Current state is inflexible and does not reflect business priorities,(And Many Others),22,Policy Based Management

19、: The Real-Time Infrastructure,Black-Box Application Services,Actual User Experience,Policies Definition of IT Service Service Agreements User Class Business Priorities,INPUTS,Compute,Store,Network,Resources,Workloads,Applications,Databases,Middleware,OUTPUTS,IT Services,Policy-based, dynamic, cost-

20、efficient: Provisioning: Deployment, Growth Optimization: Resource Efficiency Availability: Predictable, Service Level,23,IP Telephony,VoIP on WAN issues QoS control Economics vs carrier trends IP variable latency Standards and interoperability,IP telephony issues Features vs PBX Scalability Reliabi

21、lity QoS and sharing networks Interoperability,Some Missing Features Attendant console Least cost routing Busy override Trunk callback queuing Blind transfer,Less then 500 phones; VoIP over WAN,Large IP Telephony (500 or more phones),Very Large IP telephony (2,000 or more phones),24,Utility Computin

22、g,Utility computing Buy the services of system, not HW/SW Separates the what from the how Pricing model tends toward usage Examples: ASPs, SSPs, MSPs, hosting services Access them various ways Web services Browsers Thick clients . . .,8.6B$ 2003,25B$ 2006,25,GRID Computing,Application,Owner C,Owner

23、A,Owner B,26,Utility Computing and GRID,Application,Utility selling grid resources,Owner A,27,Honey Pots, Application Traces and Forensics,Firewalls,IDS,VA,Gateway AV,Security Platform,In the Cloud MSS,Intrusion Prevention Appliances,Anti- spam,Content Scanning,Sub-100 Mb,Gigabit+,2002,2004,2006,?,?

24、,Policies and Parameters,New Network Security Technology,Unified Management,28,Current Applications Toll pass systems Pet identification Access cards Retail theft protection Electronic parolee tracking,Photos source Texas Instruments,Successor to Bar Codes Can read even covered Can read while moving

25、 Can scan at distance Survives water, heat, painting Price dropping to low levels Remain in product for life,Potential Applications Locate common objects Improved asset control Real-time retail-shelf inventory Move to faster or self-checkout Improve manufacturing and supply-chain efficiency After-sa

26、le services offerings,RFID Tag,29,“Smart” Objects,Passive tags temporarily attached to medium-/high-value items. Dedicated communication and computation is applied in specialized situations only. Computers are relatively large and long-lived.,Passive tags in every nontrivial object. Active intellige

27、nce wireless networking and sensing capabilities cost under 50c and are widely distributed. The majority of computers are invisible and disposable.,Bar coded shopping. Inventory tagging. Specialized industrial tagging.,Nothing is ever lost. Everything is identifiable. Many objects know their history

28、 and can interact wirelessly.,30,More information,Improved understanding,Improved decisions,Analysis Gap,Action Gap,Digital footprints(Sensors, RFID) Self-service Information extraction Unstructured data sources Embedded connectivity Metadata and tags,Improved algorithms Targeted algorithms Integrat

29、ed analysis,Business rules Business process fusion,Analysis: Mind the Gap,31,Proxy Caching VPN Firewall WAP VoIP Gateway,Desktops,Client Devices,Databases Consolidation on zSeries,ERP SCM CRM HR,Business Application Server,Internet Access,Line of Business,Enterprise Data,Data/Content Server/ Warehou

30、se,Network Edge Servers,Compute Clusters,Infrastructure Server/Blade,Directory Security Load balance File/print Web E-mail NAS,Financial, R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, visualize,Gartner Predicts: Linux in the Enterprise: Grass Roots,32,Office Suite Word Processor Spreadsheet Charting Personal D

31、atabase,ERP Suite Material Requirements Planning Inventory Control Financials Human Resources,Smart Enterprise Suite Collaboration Support Content Management Information Access Portal Framework,Gartner Predicts: Smart Enterprise Suite A New Wave of Software Consolidation,Content management Collabora

32、tion Information organization and retrieval Business intelligence Portal framework Ad hoc process support Expertise location and management Community support,With: Sufficient range of functionality Aggressive price points Coherent offer for individual, team and enterprise processes Integration acros

33、s suite for user and administration Services and support,SES What to Expect,Connected Society,wireless,wearables,Wi-Fi,smart phones,location-based services,ultra-wide band,Smart Networked Objects,embedded computing,RFID,MEMS,smart dust,digital ink,Semantic Web,information extraction,XBRL,Semantic Co

34、nnectivity,affinity profiles,automatic tagging,Three Megatrends,35,Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade,PDA Hub,Mesh Networks,By 2007, hubs (central units without peripherals) will emerge that connect many peripherals (e.g., via PAN). Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP3 Player, Camer

35、a, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication, Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center,A mix of technologies, e.g., Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi x.y, 2.5/3/4G, will allow best economical mix: reliability, costs, size, bandw

36、idth, reach Sensor Mesh Networks/Monitoring Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play,Tags,Motes,GPS,RFID, Smart Dust (Smart Peas), GPS Sensors Fleet Management (AVLDS), Inventory Management Optimized Traffic Routing,36,Mobile Network Evolution,Celllocation(worst case, several Km),Location precision

37、 of 80 M or better,2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001,TDMA,CDMA,GPRS,EDGE,WCDMA,1x-EV DV,cdma20001xRTT,GSM,GPRS,WCDMA,EDGE,2GAssume 9.6-19.6 Kbps,2.5GAssume80-100 Kbps EDGE,20-40 Kbps GPRS,3GAssume 200-300 Kbps,Celllocation(worst case, several Km),?,EV DO,CDMA,GSM,CDMA,GSM,37,Short-Range Wireless,Persona

38、l Area,Adjacent,Local Area,Metropolitan,1M,10M,100M,1KM,Nearfield Passive RFID Active RFID,802.16a (Wi-Max) 802.16b (mobile) Proprietary fixed mesh 802.20 (mobile),UWB 802.15.4 (Zigbee) Bluetooth Proprietary PAN,Proprietary mesh 802.11 a,be,g,h,i,f (b = Wi-Fi),38,Device Innovation, 2003-2005,Consume

39、r,Corporate,Market Trends Fashion is still key Annuity handset revenue Nokia n-gage console Asian manufacturers,Greater competition, e.g., Dell, Microsoft Fragmentation, not convergence,Microsoft and Symbian battle for corporate mind share No single-standard corporate device,Technology Trends Color,

40、 polyphonic sound Imaging, video, cameras Game technology M-commerce hardware,Java everywhere Form-factor proliferation Slow Bluetooth deployment,Integrated WLAN Microsoft .NET grows 1GHz, PDA by 2005 Tablet PC,39,The Diverse Mobile User,40,Gartner estimates as of February 2003,Primary Modes of Mobi

41、le Workers,41,Computer Human Interaction in the Next Decade,Human Computer,Computer Human,Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position Gait Analysis, Infrared Emotion/Lie Detection SPA: Most CHI will remain keyboard-driven throughout 2015 (0.7 probability),OLED/OLEP, E-Ink Head-Mounted Displays Spe

42、ech Synthesis Avatars, Synthetic Characters,Logic,Natural Language Search Machine Translation Taxonomies/Browsing Personalization,42,Uncontrolled distribution of information,Political & social instability,Electronic fraud,Geographical & cultural remoteness,Lack of trust in Internet security,Supplier dependency,The Connected Economy Opens the Door to New Dependencies and Threats,In recent years, we have witnessed terrorist attacks, political