1、Nov., 2001,Topic 1INTRODUCTION+PROJECT SELECTION,天馬行空官方博客： ；QQ:1318241189；QQ群：175569632,Nov., 2001,I. Introduction,天馬行空官方博客： ；QQ:1318241189；QQ群：175569632,Nov., 2001,1. Evolution of an Idea,People have been planning and managing Projects since the dawn of time. Whenever and wherever civilizations too

2、k root, there were projects to manage: building to erect, roads to pave, laws to write. Without the advanced tools, techniques and methodologies we have today, people created project timelines, located materials and resources and weighed the risk involved. Examples: great wall ,Nov., 2001,Over time,

3、 people realized that the techniques for cost control,timeline development, resource procurement and risk management were applicable to a wide range of projects,whether erecting bridges, rotating crops or deciding how to govern themselves. These early idea were the precursors to a set of management

4、techniques we now know as “modern project management”.,Nov., 2001,Modern organizations are finding that project management provides many advantages-not the least of which is improving the bottom line! Savvy customers demand more and better products and faster services. Time-to-market pressures force

5、s greater efficiency. Professional project management has found its place in todays competitive, global business arena.,Nov., 2001,The past several decades have been marked by a rapid growth in the use of project management as a means by which Org. achieve their objectives. PM has emerged because th

6、e characteristics of our late 20th society demand the development of new methods of management. The exponential expansion of human knowledge; The growing demand for broad range of complex,sophisticated,customized goods and services; The evolution of worldwide competitive markets.,Nov., 2001,All 3 fo

7、rces combine to mandate the use of TEAM to solve problems that used to be solvable by individuals. Knowledge expansion-TEAM: call for high level of coordination and cooperation between groups of people. Intensive Competition-make their complex,customized outputs available as quickly as possible. “Ti

8、me-to-market” is critical. The projects undertake are large and getting larger. “The more we can do, the more we try to do”.,Nov., 2001,Project fails too often,Systems projects: 30-45%of system projects fail prior to completion. Over half of all system projects overrun their budgets and schedules by

9、 up 200% or more. Combined costs of failure and overruns total in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Computerworlds survey: failed system projects cost more than $100 billion per year; one of two projects overrun its budget by 180% or more; A survey of what was missing in PM process indicated: pro

10、ject office-42%; integrated methods-41%; training and monitoring-38%; policies and procedures-35%; implementation plans-23%; executive support-22% Example of failed projectChina, Rest of the world,Nov., 2001,2. What is a Project?,Org. Perform work. Work generally involves either operations or projec

11、ts. Operation: ongoing and repetitive Project: temporary and unique project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to achieve a particular aim. Every project has a definite beginning and a definite end. Examples: running a political campaign.,Nov., 2001,In the broadest sense, a project is a specific, fi

12、nite task to be accomplished. Whether large- or small-scale or whether long- or short-run is not particularly relevant. What relevant is that the project be seen as a unit. Attributes: Purpose, Life cycle, Interdependencies, Uniqueness, Conflict M Stakeholders with differing needs and expectations;

13、Identified requirements and unidentified requirements.,Nov., 2001,Projects General Objectives: performance, cost and time Fig.1-1,p.3: Performance, cost, time, and project targetsrequired performance-budget limit-due datetrade-offs,Nov., 2001,PERFORMANCE,TARGET,COST,TIME(SCHEDULE),Nov., 2001,Project

14、 management focuses critical attention on the interdependent nature of complex tasks-an action, or failure to take action, in one area will usually affect other areas.,Nov., 2001,The project management knowledge areas,Project integration management: project plan development, project plan execution,

15、overall change control Project scope management: initiation, scope planning, scope definition, scope verification, scope change control Project time management: activity definition, activity sequencing, activity duration estimating, schedule development, schedule control Project cost management: res

16、ources planning, cost estimating, cost budgeting, cost control,Nov., 2001,Project quality management: Quality planning, quality assurance, quality control Project human resource management: organizational planning, staff acquisition, team development Project communication management: communication p

17、lanning, information distribution, performance reporting, administrative closure Project risk management: risk identification, risk quantification, risk response development, risk response control Project Procurement management: procurement planning, solicitation planning, solicitation, source selec

18、tion, contract administration, contract close-out.,Nov., 2001,The project manager is expected to integrate all aspects of the project,ensure that the proper knowledge and resources are available when and where needed, and above all, ensure that the expected results are produced in a timely, cost-eff

19、ective manner.-Project manager is a super-manager.PMI: founded at 1969PMBOK: 1987, 1996, 2000,Nov., 2001,Project management helps organizations meet their customers need by standardizing routine tasks and reducing the number of tasks that could potentially be forgotten. Project mana

20、gement ensures that available resources are used in most effective and efficient manner. Project management provides senior executives insight into “what is happening” and “where things are going” within their organization.,Nov., 2001,Many org. Around the world such as NASA, IBM, AT the operating ne

21、cessity; the competitive necessity; the product line extension; comparative benefit model Numeric models: Profit/profitability-single goal; Scoring-multi-goals;,Nov., 2001,Comparative benefit model,An Org. has many projects to consider, ORDERING the projects Its not a formal model, is widely adopted

22、 for selection decisions on all sorts of projects. PEER REVIEW techniques: Q-Sort, figure 2-1,p.49,Nov., 2001,High level,Low level,Medium level,Medium level,Original deck,Low level,High level,Very high,high,Very low,low,Nov., 2001,For each participant in the exercise, assemble a deck of cards, with

23、the name and description of one project on each card. Instruct each participant to divide the deck into 2 piles,one representing a high priority, the other a low priority level Instruct each participant to select card from each pile to form a third pile representing the medium-priority level. Instru

24、ct each participant to select cards from the high-level pile to yield another pile representing the very high level of priority; select cards from low level pile representing the very low level of priority. Finally, instruct each participant to survey the selections and shift any cards that seem out

25、 of the place until the classification are satisfactory.,Nov., 2001,Profit/profitability model,Payback period Average rate of return Internal rate of return Discount cash flow: Strategy behind the model. Mistakes. Profitability index,Nov., 2001,4 Discounted Cash Flow,Nov., 2001,Strategy behind the D

26、FC,Popular mistakes: examples, Production capacity? Market capacity? Strategy Product market: compete- monopolise -innovation Capital market: opportunity cost,Nov., 2001,5 Other profitability models,Pacificos method r= probability of research success d=probability of development success, given research success p=probability of process success, given the development success c=probability of commercial success,given the process success C: total cost of Rstructurally simple