1、 4 4.1 4.1.1 ; 4.1.2 : , , : 599 . , , , . , . Granger 1 . 12 Granger . . (GDP 12; (VBTM , GDP , . 19892007 , , . , , . , , ADF , 1 . : , ; , 95% , . , , . 1 GDP ( , , 1 0.9998 (GDP ( , , 6 0.6451 (GDP ( , , 6 0.0004 VBTM ( , , 2 1.0000 (VBTM ( , , 2 0.9987 (VBTM ( , , 1 0.0014 E-G , 2 . 95% , GDP V

2、BTM , , . 2 5% GDP-VBTM ( , , 1 2.101025 1.962813 : GDP = 24416.96 + 0.010410VBTM R = 0.974202 Granger , 3 . 95% , Granger , . 3 Granger GDP V BT M Granger 4 0.01636 4 0.01116 V BT M GDP Granger : , Granger . 2 2 2 13 2 , , . , : , . , , , , : (x1t , x2t T = (x2t , x1t T (i = 1 : , i=2: (11 , 4.1.3

3、600 30 G ranger 4.2 4.2.1 3 G ranger AHP , ; . , , , 4. 1416 . 17 . 4 0.4231 0.2272 0.0592 0.0116 0.0227 0.0227 0.0064 0.1515 0.0757 0.1085 0.1085 0.1050 0.2298 0.2298 0.0873 0.1310 GDP GDP GDP 4.2.2 ( (8(10. (11 (6, (7, k = 2 : , 1 ( R&D GDP GDP (12 ct = , 4.3 2007 2 i=1 31 ( . 0.0870,0.7658 , , .

4、0.3 ( . 0.2 ( ( , . 5 , , , 0.6015, 0.9894 , 0.3879. , . , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , . 5 . x1t , x2t , x1t , x2t 0, 1, (xit xit 2 m 2 i=1 si k = 1 (x1t x2t 2 + (x2t x1t 2 2 2 = 1 |x1t x2t | s1 = s2 = 1. 31 ( , 2007 5 4 x1,2007 0.7551 0.6515 0.4839 0.4484 0.4228 0.4407 0.4007 0.3212 0.3357 0.3298 0

5、.2579 0.3666 0.2864 0.1982 0.3002 0.2158 0.4677 0.2065 0.2178 0.2870 0.3322 0.2583 0.2625 0.2957 0.2075 0.2883 0.1853 0.1724 0.1916 0.2023 0.1685 , : 2007 x2,2007 0.7277 0.8801 0.4301 0.4110 0.3053 0.2971 0.2125 0.2251 0.1762 0.1722 0.1839 0.1397 0.1560 0.1875 0.1450 0.1597 0.0693 0.1341 0.1288 0.07

6、61 0.0607 0.0851 0.0799 0.0584 0.0811 0.0445 0.0818 0.0866 0.0654 0.0575 0.0056 5 x2007 0.7414 0.7658 0.4570 0.4297 0.3641 0.3689 0.3066 0.2731 0.2560 0.2510 0.2209 0.2531 0.2212 0.1929 0.2226 0.1878 0.2685 0.1703 0.1733 0.1815 0.1965 0.1717 0.1712 0.1771 0.1443 0.1664 0.1335 0.1295 0.1285 0.1299 0.

7、0870 c2007 0.9726 0.7713 0.9462 0.9626 0.8825 0.8564 0.8117 0.9039 0.8405 0.8424 0.9260 0.7732 0.8696 0.9894 0.8448 0.9439 0.6015 0.9277 0.9109 0.7890 0.7285 0.8268 0.8174 0.7627 0.8735 0.7561 0.8965 0.9143 0.8738 0.8552 0.8372 d2007 0.8492 0.7686 0.6576 0.6431 0.5668 0.5621 0.4989 0.4969 0.4638 0.4

8、598 0.4523 0.4424 0.4386 0.4368 0.4336 0.4210 0.4019 0.3975 0.3973 0.3785 0.3783 0.3768 0.3741 0.3675 0.3550 0.3547 0.3460 0.3441 0.3351 0.3333 0.2699 601 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 , ( , 4 . 4 : 10 ( , , , , , . . 10 ( . , ; , , . , , . ( , .

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