1、中國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展回想與展望Review and Outlook of Chinas Dairy Industry農(nóng)業(yè)部畜牧業(yè)司行業(yè)開(kāi)展處處長(zhǎng) 王俊勛Presented by Wang Junxun, Division Director for Animal Production Development, MOA二00八年九月八日Sep. 8, 2021.報(bào)告的主要內(nèi)容當(dāng)前中國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展根本情況 Overview of Chinas Dairy Industry中國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展的展望Outlook on Chinas Dairy Development下一步重點(diǎn)任務(wù)Priorities in Future

2、 Work .一、當(dāng)前中國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展的根本情況I. Overview of Chinas Dairy Industry 一是奶類產(chǎn)量快速增長(zhǎng)。2007年我國(guó)奶類總產(chǎn)量為3633萬(wàn)噸，比2000年增長(zhǎng)2.9倍；奶牛存欄1218.9萬(wàn)頭，比2000年增長(zhǎng)1.5倍 Fast growth in yield. In 2007, the total production was 36.33 million tons, up by 290% over 2000; cattle inventory 12.18 million heads, up by 150% .7年以來(lái)，奶業(yè)消費(fèi)已由世界第11位躍居世界第3

3、位。Over 7 years of development, China has ranked third in the worlds dairy production from 11th .一、當(dāng)前中國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展的根本情況I. Overview of Chinas Dairy Industry . 二是乳品加工才干不斷加強(qiáng)。2007年我國(guó)乳制品產(chǎn)量為 1787萬(wàn)噸， 比2000年增長(zhǎng)7.2倍。其中液態(tài)奶產(chǎn)量1441萬(wàn)噸，比2000年增長(zhǎng)9.7倍。 Processing capacity has been constantly improved. The production of proces

4、sed dairy products of 2007 was 17.87 million tons, up by 720% over 2000, of which liquid milk 14.41 million tons, up by 970%. . 三是乳品消費(fèi)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。2007年全國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民平均乳制品消費(fèi)量為24.9公斤，比2000年增長(zhǎng)0.7倍，鄉(xiāng)村居民奶類消費(fèi)也有較大幅度的增長(zhǎng)。 Consumption for dairy products steadily increased. In 2007, average dairy consumption in cities and to

5、wns reached 24.9 kg, up by 70% over 2000. Significant growth also took place in rural areas. 四是對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)和鄉(xiāng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)帶動(dòng)作用明顯加強(qiáng)。當(dāng)前，我國(guó)豢養(yǎng)奶牛的農(nóng)戶約為260多萬(wàn)戶，奶牛養(yǎng)殖業(yè)的產(chǎn)值到達(dá)847億元，約占畜牧業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的5%。奶業(yè)的開(kāi)展添加了鄉(xiāng)村勞動(dòng)力的就業(yè)時(shí)機(jī)，推進(jìn)了種植業(yè)構(gòu)造的調(diào)整。 Boost the agriculture &rural economic development. For the moment, we have some 2.6 million farmer househol

6、ds for dairy production. The production value reached 84.7 billion yuan, 5% of total animal industry. The dairy industry not only offers more job opportunities, but enhances restructuring of crop industry. . 五是產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易日益頻繁。近年來(lái)我國(guó)繼續(xù)從國(guó)外引進(jìn)奶牛冷凍精液、胚胎及活體遺傳物質(zhì)，乳制品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易數(shù)量繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí)，與澳大利亞、新西蘭等國(guó)的奶業(yè)交流協(xié)作范圍進(jìn)一步加大。 Activ

7、e international trade for dairy products. We have in the recent years continued to introduce frozen semen, embryo and live genetic materials. Trade volume keeps growing. We have also expanded cooperation with Australia and New Zealand. 當(dāng)前我國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展抑制了去年上半年養(yǎng)殖效益下滑的不利局面，奶牛消費(fèi)情勢(shì)總體穩(wěn)定。但進(jìn)入4月份以來(lái)，北方奶業(yè)主產(chǎn)區(qū)原料奶收買價(jià)錢出現(xiàn)

8、不同程度下降。 Having overcome the decline in productivity in the first half last year, dairy production keeps stable. However, as of April, the main dairy producing areas in the north have witnessed some fall in price for raw milk to different extent. 當(dāng)前我國(guó)奶牛養(yǎng)殖情勢(shì)總體穩(wěn)定 Dairy Production Keeps Stable.隨著中秋國(guó)慶兩節(jié)的

9、臨近和乳制品消費(fèi)旺季的到來(lái)，價(jià)錢將能夠逐漸上升，奶農(nóng)收益可望堅(jiān)持穩(wěn)定。With the approaching of the Moon Festival and National Holiday as well as coming of high season for consumption, the price is likely to gradually pick up with good hope for stabilizing farmers interest.產(chǎn)業(yè)開(kāi)展擁有良好的政策環(huán)境 Good Policies Environment消費(fèi)開(kāi)展?jié)摿Υ?Large Potentials

10、 in Production消費(fèi)需求平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng) Stable Growth in Demand for Consumption二、我國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展的展望II. Outlook on Chinas Dairy Industry奶業(yè)消費(fèi)開(kāi)展面臨良好機(jī)遇Good Opportunities for Dairy Production. 我國(guó)奶業(yè)總體開(kāi)展程度還比較低，還處在初級(jí)開(kāi)展階段，抵御市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)才干較差。目前純種荷斯坦奶牛比例低；存欄20頭以上的奶牛規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖比重只需31%；乳品加工企業(yè)與奶農(nóng)的利益關(guān)系不順，Still low in level of overall development and vuln

11、erable in face of market risks. Low ratio of pure Holstein, only 30% in farms of over 20 heads of cattle each; not clearly defined interest-sharing links between farmers and processors.挑戰(zhàn)：國(guó)內(nèi)奶業(yè)總體開(kāi)展程度不高Challenge: not high in level of overall development.原料奶定價(jià)機(jī)制不合理；消費(fèi)群體培育滯后，市場(chǎng)開(kāi)辟不力。特別是近一個(gè)時(shí)期，飼料價(jià)錢大幅上漲，已成為

12、當(dāng)前奶牛養(yǎng)殖開(kāi)展的重要制約要素。Unreasonable pricing mechanism for raw milk;lagging-behind market development and fostering of consumption group. In particular in the recent period, the uprising of price for feed has become a big constraint for dairy production. .挑戰(zhàn)：乳制品國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力不強(qiáng)Challenge: weak competitiveness 隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化

13、的不斷開(kāi)展，中國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展與國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的互動(dòng)性更強(qiáng)、關(guān)聯(lián)度更高，產(chǎn)業(yè)弱質(zhì)性將更加凸顯。With developing of economic globalization, it becomes more interactive and correlated between Chinas dairy industry and global market. The disadvantages of Chinas dairy industry will become even more apparent. . 去年10月份以來(lái)國(guó)際乳制品價(jià)錢逐漸回落，我國(guó)乳制品價(jià)錢處于優(yōu)勢(shì)，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力繼續(xù)下降。受此影響，今年

14、上半年我國(guó)乳制品進(jìn)口明顯增長(zhǎng)，出口卻大幅減少，促使原料奶收買價(jià)錢回落，導(dǎo)致養(yǎng)殖效益下滑。 Given the price fall in the global market as of last October, the price of Chinas dairy products is in an inferior position with even reduced competitiveness. As a result, the first half of this year recorded a substantial growth in dairy imports while sh

15、arp reduction in export at the same time, which leads to drop of price for raw milk and dampened profit for farmers. .三、下一步重點(diǎn)任務(wù)III. Priorities in Future Work 一是提高奶牛規(guī)范化規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖程度。加強(qiáng)奶牛良種選育和改良。加快奶牛規(guī)模養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)和規(guī)范化養(yǎng)殖小區(qū)建立，逐漸處理奶牛養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模小而散問(wèn)題。First, to enhance the standardized and scale production. Efforts will be made

16、in breed improvement and building of standardized farm and raising communities.大力推行科學(xué)豢養(yǎng)技術(shù)，加快普及機(jī)械化擠奶，加強(qiáng)飼草料基地建立，努力提高奶牛單產(chǎn)和原料奶質(zhì)量。Promote scientific raising technology and expedite application of mechanized milking enhance building of forage grass production basis; improve the unit yield and product qual

17、ity. 二是加強(qiáng)原料奶收買市場(chǎng)管理。確定合理的原料奶收買參考價(jià)錢。制定生鮮乳收買管理方法，規(guī)范原料奶市場(chǎng)次序。Second, to tighten market management for raw milk. Formulate reasonable reference price and set up regulations on administration over purchase of raw milk with a view to regulating the marker order. .大力支持奶業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)和奶農(nóng)協(xié)作組織開(kāi)展，經(jīng)過(guò)協(xié)會(huì)和協(xié)作社，提高奶農(nóng)在原料奶銷售中的談判位置，

18、協(xié)助奶農(nóng)處理消費(fèi)運(yùn)營(yíng)中遇到的實(shí)踐問(wèn)題，保證奶農(nóng)權(quán)益。Promote the developing of dairy association and cooperatives to consolidate the position of farmers in sales of raw milk and help address the difficulties in production and operation. . 三是加大對(duì)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展的宏觀調(diào)控。自創(chuàng)興隆國(guó)家對(duì)奶業(yè)扶持和維護(hù)的勝利閱歷和做法，結(jié)合我國(guó)奶業(yè)開(kāi)展實(shí)踐，研討制定產(chǎn)業(yè)開(kāi)展的政策框架體系。 Third, to strengthen t

19、he macro-regulation. Referring to the good experience and practices of developed countries, to formulate the policy framework suited to our own condition. .加強(qiáng)乳制品進(jìn)口調(diào)控，維護(hù)奶農(nóng)利益和國(guó)內(nèi)乳制品企業(yè)，維護(hù)奶業(yè)消費(fèi)和市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定。宣傳普及牛奶營(yíng)養(yǎng)知識(shí)。Strengthen the regulation over dairy imports and protect the interest of farmers and domestic processors with a view to stabilizin