1、COREU.S. Multi-IndustryLearningsfromEarnings(#4):200bps growthslowdownintoQ4;Choppier ConstructiontrendsINDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Multi-Industry NEUTRAL UnchangedEquityResearch1November2019We summarize our latest takeaways on global industrial earnings; we also update our views on FLOW (EW) and RXN (EW).

2、The Short Cycle valuation re-rating continued for the early part this week, but it may well take a pause once we are through Q3 earnings season. Investors may then take a breath, and rummage around in the Lost and Found section, for the Valuation calculator.MI growth drying up in Q4 / Q1: The step-d

3、own in US demand in recent months meansthattheUSMIcompaniesarelikelytoseelittle/noorganicsalesgrowthon averageinQ419/Q120(slightpriceincreases,andvolumedeclines),after2%growth inQ3.Ofthe20USMIcompanieswhohavereported,around8sawno/negativey- o-ysalestrendsinQ3.Sofar,thosewhowentintothedownturnfirstin

4、Q119(GTES, MMM,PNR)arestillexpectedtoseeorganicdeclinesinQ419,butmayrecoverby early-mid2020(inourview).OverallShortCycleIndustrialorganicsaleshaveworsened toa2-3%dropinQ3,withHydraulicsproductsinparticularbeinghithard(downhigh singledigits).PHnotedthatmonthlytrendsdeterioratedfurtherinOctober,fromQ3

5、, anditthinksthesaleslowpointisbetweentheDecemberandMarchQs(helpedby Distributionde-stockingperhapsmovingpastitspeak),whichisconsistentwithwhat onewouldexpectgiventhepatternofhistoricaldownturns(ShortCycleUpdateInthe Heart of the Downturn; October 13, 2019).Constructiondemandismoreuneven:Formanycomp

6、anies,thereisstillalargedis- connectbetweenthesoftermacroleadindicatorsinConstruction(IRsTraneClimate businessdelivered10%bookingsgrowthinQ3),andtheirbottom-uporderintake,but therearesignsthatthisdeltaisclosing.Forexample,theLVequipmentmanufacturers didseetheirsalesslideontotheedgeofdownturnterritor

7、y,withbusinessessuchas ABBElectrification,ETNEP,andNVT,barelygrowingnow.WealsosawXYLsorganic growthinCommercialmarketsslowto+1%inQ3,from+7%inQ2.SomecrumbsofcomfortaroundabottominginChina/Electronics:Wecontinueto thinkElectronicswillbeoneofthefirstend-marketstore-acceleratein2020,andthere issomeevide

8、nceofabottominghere,althoughitismoremixedinChina(thetwoare somewhatrelated);mosttrendsarestillnegative.FanucsordersinChinaarestillfalling sharply,down-15%y-o-yintheSeptQ,butthisisasmallerdeclinethanthe-60% averagedeclinesintheprior12months.InElectronics,ApplesiPhonesalesdeclinedby-9%, after double-d

9、igit declines in recent quarters; Apple noted that in China specifically, its sales have significantly improved.Balanced Incremental, Decremental Margins: Incremental margins have tapered slightlyinQ3,asvolumeandpricetailwindsshrank,to30%.Decrementalmargins haveshrunksomewhat(to40%,from45%inQ2)amids

10、tgreatercostcontrol,andas externalcostheadwindshavepeaked.KeyreadsforUSMIcompanieswhoareyettoreport:Positive:JCI.Negative:GTES, KMT,ROK.Mixed:EMR.Forfullstockimplicationsseepage3.Inside,ourupdated VendorDatashowscomparisonsofthegrowthrateswithindifferentindustries.Forafulllistofourratings,pricetarge

11、tand earningschangesinthisreport,pleasesee tableonpage2.U.S. Multi-Industry Julian Mitchell+1 212 526 1661 HYPERLINK mailto:julian.mitchell julian.mitchell BCI, USJason Makishi+1 212 526 5335 HYPERLINK mailto:jason.makishi jason.makishi BCI, USJoao Pedro Carvalho+1 212 526 8431 HYPERLINK mailto:joao

12、.carvalho joao.carvalho BCI, USTrish Gorman+1 212 526 9154 HYPERLINK mailto:trish.gorman trish.gorman BCI, USGavin McClanahan+1 212 526-3717 HYPERLINK mailto:gavin.mcclanahan gavin.mcclanahan BCI, USal n rteal n rten I-d e tc itr sReofandtodoAsabethathaveathattheofasaPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION

13、(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 70.Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)CompanyRatingPricePrice TargetEPS FY1 (E)EPS FY2 (E)OldNew31-Oct-19OldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgU.S. Multi-IndustryNeuNeuRexnord (RXN)EWEW28.29

14、29.0029.00-1.881.9542.062.070SPX Flow (FLOW)EWEW45.2836.0040.00111.741.91101.972.159Source:BarclaysResearch.SharepricesandtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency. FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.FY2(E):Nextfiscalyearestimatesby

15、BarclaysResearch.StockRating:OW:Overweight;EW:EqualWeight;UW:Underweight;RS:RatingSuspended IndustryView:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:NegativeKey reads for those US MI companies yet to report:Automotivedemand(productionandcapitalspending)remainsverysubdued,implyingnonear-termlet-upforGTES,KMT,andROK

16、;InFactoryAutomation,manycompaniessoundedfairlydownbeat,withlittleprospectofanimminentturnaround,suggestingongoingpressureforROKand ptsfMR;HVACcommentary(exc-transportrefrigeration)hasbeenbroadlyupbeat,particularlyonnon-residentialdemand;thissuggestsnoimminentslowdowninQ3/ Q4forOEMssuchasJCI,orthesu

17、pplierssuchasEMRandRBC;ProcessAutomationcommentaryfromABB,HONandSchneiderisgenerallyencouragingforEMR,particularlyintermsofmega-projectactivity,butwenotethat thelatterhasmuchhigherinstrumentsexposureinASthanHPSdoes,andmoreUSO&GexposurethanABBorSchneider.Table ofContentsTOC o 1-1 h z u HYPERLINK l _T

18、OC_250014 CATALYSTCALENDAR5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 SECTORPERFORMANCE:HOWHAVETHECOMPANIES/STOCKS PERFORMEDQTD? HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 SECTOR PERFORMANCE:ORGANICGROWTH7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 INDIVIDUAL COMPANYTAKEAWAYS:FLOW8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 INDIVIDUAL COMPANYTAKEAWAYS:RXN10 HYPERLINK l _TO

19、C_250009 BROADIMPRESSIONS11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 GEOGRAPHICDEMANDTRENDS15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 GEOGRAPHICSALESDATA26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 MONTHLYDEMANDTRENDS27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 END-MARKET ORDERS ANDSALESCOMMENTARY29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 END-MARKETORDERSANDSALESDATA48 HYPERLINK l _

20、TOC_250003 DE-STOCKING50 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 FX52 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 PROFITABILITY53 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 VENDORDATA56Catalyst CalendarWeshowbelowourCatalystCalendar,whichprovidestheearningsdatesofcompaniesthatserveasread-throughs(i.e.havepertinentendmarkets/competingsegments) tothecompa

21、niesinourCoverage.FIGURE 1ALLEETNGELIIRBCSWKCFXMMMHDSRXNUTXFLOWPHJCIPNRKMTGTESSource: Barclays Research, Company Data, Bloomberg AnalyticsBarclays | U.S. Multi-IndustrySector Performance: How have the companies / stocks performed QTD?FIGURE 2Earnings Heat MapPrice Perf. Relative to S&PPrice Perf. Ab

22、soluteY-o-YOrganicGrowth inQ3,comparedtoQ2Y-o-Y Gross Margin Perf.Y-o-Y EBIT Margin Growth in Q3, compared to Q2Y-o-Y EPS Growth in Q3, compared to Q2EPS Guidance Raised / Lowered/ ReiterateGrew Capex Y-o-YBeat Barclays Estimates Beat Barclays EstimatesProfitBeat Barclays Estimates on EPSALLECFX*DHR

23、*DOVETNFLOWFTVGDI*GEHONIRLIIMMMNVTPH*PNRROPRXN*SWKUTXGreen = Outperf. S&P*Green 0% *Green = AcceleratedGreen = ExpandedGreen = AcceleratedGreen = AcceleratedGreen = RaisedGreen = YesGreen = BeatGreen = BeatGreen = BeatRed = Underperf. S&P*Red 0% *Red = SlowedRed = CompressedRed = SlowedRed = SlowedR

24、ed = LoweredRed = NoRed = MissedRed = MissedRed = Missed*During Earnings Period*During Earnings PeriodBlank = FlatBlank = N/ABlank = NABlank = Held /InitiatedBlank = In-lineBlank = In-lineBlank = In-line% Green85%100%32%55%55%60%38%60%67%73%93%Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg, *EBITDA not EPS gu

25、idance, * Guidance was initiated, *no Barclays estimates to compare with, given RestrictionSector Performance: Organic GrowthFIGURE 3Sector Organic Sales Growth (including estimates for those companies who have reported Sept Q earnings, and where we have published new estimates)Organic Sales Growth2

26、01820182018201820192019201920192020202020202020TickerCQ12018CQ22018CQ32018CQ42018CQ12019CQ22019CQ32019CQ42019CQ12020CQ22020CQ32020CQ42020AllegionALLE3.3%5.2%8.5%6.7%5.8%3.0%6.4%5.5%4.0%4.8%3.3%2.8%ColfaxCFX4.9%-0.7%0.6%10.6%1.6%3.6%1.3%DanaherDHR5.5%6.0%6.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.0%DOV1.7%3.5%3.1%6.2%8.3%2.9

27、%5.6%-0.4%1.2%2.9%3.3%3.2%EmersonEMR7.5%8.0%8.0%4.5%4.0%2.0%EatonETN6.0%7.0%6.0%7.0%4.0%2.5%-1.0%-2.3%0.5%1.7%2.8%5.4%SPXFlowFLOW2.1%6.2%9.8%5.1%6.0%-2.7%-2.9%-10.0%-7.5%-2.9%2.9%4.9%FortiveFTV1.2%4.6%2.6%7.4%3.7%2.0%2.1%0.5%0.6%1.4%2.9%2.3%GardnerGDI20.2%8.7%4.5%7.4%1.2%-4.7%-12.6%-16.5%-12.6%-3.9%

28、4.0%7.5%GatesGTES6.2%6.7%7.2%3.5%-2.1%-4.8%GeneralElectricGE-4.0%-6.0%1.0%8.0%5.0%7.0%7.0%1.8%-2.0%-1.7%0.1%1.5%HDSupplyHDS9.9%10.2%9.4%7.4%5.8%1.5%HoneywellHON5.0%6.0%7.0%6.0%8.0%5.0%3.0%3.0%1.9%2.2%4.5%4.5%Ingersoll-RandIR8.4%9.0%10.0%8.0%8.1%4.0%6.0%4.2%0.4%1.7%3.5%4.7%JohnsonControlsJCI1.7%5.1%7

29、.6%6.2%6.3%5.6%KennametalKMT9.0%11.0%10.0%6.0%2.0%-3.0%LII4.5%8.3%6.2%9.1%6.8%-0.4%6.1%9.8%3.0%2.9%2.8%2.5%MMMMMM2.8%5.6%1.3%3.0%-1.1%-0.9%-1.3%-2.2%-0.6%0.6%3.2%3.4%3.1%3.1%5.5%6.3%2.6%1.4%-0.9%-1.4%-0.9%0.3%1.9%2.5%ParkerHannifin8.4%8.7%5.7%5.7%1.8%-1.9%-3.3%Pentair4.2%2.9%6.4%5.7%-4.3%1.4%-2.0%-0

30、.3%3.9%2.9%3.2%2.2%RegalBeloitRBC5.8%5.7%5.2%5.2%-1.0%-2.2%RockwellAutomationROK3.5%5.7%7.3%5.7%3.6%0.5%RoperROP6.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%6.0%2.3%2.0%2.7%5.4%6.3%6.4%6.9%RexnordRXN6.0%4.0%9.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%0.1%0.5%0.7%1.7%0.1%StanleySWK3.7%7.0%4.2%5.5%4.8%3.1%3.5%2.9%2.6%3.3%3.4%4.1%United5.2%6.0%8.1%11.0%7

31、.9%5.8%5.1%1.6%2.5%3.0%5.8%6.2%US Multi Average5.3%5.8%6.3%6.6%3.9%1.5%1.5%-0.1%0.2%1.5%3.3%3.8%US Multi Median5.0%6.0%6.5%6.2%4.0%2.0%2.1%0.5%0.6%1.7%3.2%3.4%Source: Company Data, Barclays ResearchIndividual Company Takeaways: FLOWFollowingQ3Earnings,weslightlyraiseEPSestimates,particularlyintheout

32、years,as thecompanyseemstobegainingrealtractionintermsofthemargingainsatF&Band additional productivity efforts, even as the top-line outlook remains subdued. Our Price Targetmovesto$40.Q3resultswerelargelybetterthanweexpected,withIndustrial onlyseeingaslightlyorganicsalesdecline(-1%),whileFood&Bever

33、agemanagedto partly mitigate a $14m headwind from foregone dry dairy system project revenue (cominginat-5%againstaguideddoubledigitdecline).Guidingintothemaelstrom:Theupdatedfullyearguidecallsforadouble-digitdeclinein Q4F&Borganicsales,largelydrivenby$28minlostdairysystemrevenues.Weestimatea- 14.5%f

34、allascontinuingweaknessincomponentsalesandabatingtailwindsfromproject delayscompoundthedairy-relateddeclines.Industrialisseencontractingmid-singledigits (we estimate -6%) on headwinds from a Short Cycle slowdown paired withsagging EuropeanandAPACmarkets.Orders offer mixed signals: Industrial orders

35、further deteriorated, coming in at -10% organicallyforthequarter(against-8%inQ2)withparticularweaknessindehydratorsand pumps,whichmanagementviewsasthesegmentsShortCyclebellwether.However,inan encouragingsign,F&Borderswereup+4%,markingthefirstquarterofgrowthsinceQ218, asthesegmentmovespastdairyrelate

36、dcomps.WeassumethisShortCycledownturnfor Industriallasts5quarters,consistentwiththetypicalShortCycledownturnduration,which impliesareturntoorganicgrowthbyQ320.Selectivityispayingoff:Despitethe-8%reportedsalesdeclineatF&B,segmentprofitwas nearlyflatwitha2%decrementalmargin.Clearingoutlowprofitdairysy

37、stemprojects pushedsegmentmarginsup+100bpsonmixtailwinds(alongwithsegmentspecific restructuring),with300bps+expansionexpectedforQ4.Organic investment in focus: ND/EBITDA fell to 1.7X in the quarter, putting capital deploymentbackinfocusparticularlyastheP&Esaleprocessappearstobeprogressing well.Follo

38、wingdebtreduction,managementplanstoprioritizeorganicinvestment,inline withthelaunchofthecompanysnew2-3%costproductivityplan.Theplanwillyield benefitsinthelatterpartof2020andinto2021;weestimateitcouldcontribute$15mto EBIT,pushingoperatingmarginspotentiallyabove15%in2022.Radical portfolio changes unli

39、kely: M&A appears to be at the bottom of the to-do list (whichwethinkissensiblegiventheamountofinternalself-helpactivityunderway), thoughmanagementiscleartheywouldnotpassuptherightdealifitofferedanattractive ROICprofile.Onthetopicofabreakup,theP&Esaleshouldnotbetakenasasignofan impendingsplit,webeli

40、eve;ourSoTPanalysisshowsnoupsidepotentialonthisbasis.FIGURE 4FLOW SoTP Analysis2020ESalesEBITDAEV/EBITDAEV $mRationaleFood and Beverage6801089.3x1,00210% discount with GEAIndustrial8151379.2x1,257In-line with Short Cycle PeersSale757.3x5467X EV/EBITDA Sale MultipleCorporate0-409.2x-371Segment Averag

41、eTotal FLOW1,4952808.7x2,434Net Debt579Market cap1,854Diluted NOSH43SOTP Implied Price43Source: Company Data, Barclays Research, BloombergFIGURE 5USFlowPeersGlobalFlowUSFlowPeersGlobalFlowPeersShortCyclePeers12.4X8.4X9.2X8.7X20.0X20202020EV/EBITDA(X)16.0X14.0X12.0X10.0X8.0X6.0X4.0X2.0XIDEX PNREMR IT

42、TIDEX PNREMR ITTAlfaLavalGEAKrones AveragePH ETN RXN RBC KMTAverageFLOWSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchWe show below our updated EPS bridges.FIGURE 6FIGURE 72019 EPS Bridge2020 EPS BridgeFLOW EPS BridgeFLOW EPS BridgeStart EPS (2018)$1.66Start EPS (2019)$1.91Core EBIT($0.26)-3% organic salesCore

43、 EBIT($0.08)Slight organic declineFX($0.06)FX($0.00)M&A$0.00M&A$0.00Productivity$0.26$15m in cost savingsProductivity$0.02$5m in productivityCorporate($0.00)Corporate$0.10Special Charges and one-offs$0.11Special Charges and one-offs($0.01)Other$0.23Other$0.20Interest & other expense$0.24Debtpaydown;

44、InterestallocatedtoDiscOpsInterest & other expense$0.03Debt paydownTaxes($0.29)29% Tax RateTaxes($0.00)NCI$0.02NCI($0.01)Share Count($0.00)Share Count($0.01)End EPS (2019)$1.91Guidance: $1.83-1.95End EPS (2020)$2.15Change in EPS YoY$0.25Change in EPS YoY$0.24Source:CompanyData,BarclaysResearchSource

45、:CompanyData,BarclaysResearchIndividual Company Takeaways: RXNFollowingQ220earnings,weleaveourestimateslargelyunchanged.OurPriceTarget remains$29.RXNsPMCsegmenthasnowfollowedmanyotherMIcompaniesintothe Short Cycle industrial downturn, but the margins showed an impressive resiliency despitethis(Q2adj

46、.EBITDAmarginsexpandedby+80bpsy-o-y,consistentwiththe pastseveralquarters),helpedbycontinuedtractionwithSCOFR3.0andPLSinitiatives. We retain our EW rating; capital deployment on M&A remains the most likely stock catalystoverthebalanceofFY20.Top-linedetail:RXNsawsteadyorganicgrowthwithinWM(+4%),while

47、PMCrolledover(- 2.4%declinesinQ2,from+1.3%inQ1)alongsideslowingShortCycledemand,particularly withinProcessindustries;however,PMCgrowthheldupbetterrelativetoShortCyclepeers, particularlyinthecontextof200bpsofPLSheadwinds(i.e.,flattishcoregrowthinQ2; implies100bpsofdecelerationvs.Q1).Overall,theresult

48、sweresomewhatinlinewith managementsorganicsalesguidanceoflow-single-digitgrowthforFY20(reiteratedonthe call);wemodel+1.1%organicgrowthforFY20(vs.+1%in1H20).Thecompanyindicated thattheinstitutional,aerospace,andfood&beverageendmarketsremainbroadlyhealthy, whileprocessindustriesandindustrialdistributi

49、onhavebecomemorechallenging.Overall, weassumethisShortCycledownturnforPMClasts4quarters.UpdatetoEBITDAguidancelargelyFX-related:ManagementloweredtheFY20EBITDA guidancerangeby-$4matthemidpointvs.initialguidance(to$460-467m),withthedelta largely attributed increased FX headwinds and modestly lower ass

50、umptions for process industries.PMCisexpectedtoseeflattishgrowthinthe2Hnet200bpsPLSrevenue headwind,withEBITDAmarginsalsoflattishy-o-y(i.e.,SCOFR3.0costsoffsetting incrementalSCOFR2.0benefit);WMisexpectedtomaintainstrongpricinginthe2H(albeit moremutedcontributiony-o-y),withincrementalmarginexpansion

51、y-o-y(similarto1H).BalanceSheet:RXNisatthelow-endofitstargetedleveragerange(thecompanyexitedQ2 at2.0 x),with6M20FCFupconsiderablyy-o-y.Givenmanagementscommentaryonthe call,wewouldnotbesurprisedtoseealarger,water-relateddealinthequartersahead.We show below our EPS Bridges for 2020 and 2021.FIGURE 8FI

52、GURE 92020 EPS Bridge2021 EPS BridgeRXN EPS BridgeRXN EPS BridgeStart EPS (2019)$1.85Start EPS (2020)$1.95Organic$0.061% organic growth; Net of simplificationOrganic$0.112% organic growthFX($0.02)FX$0.00M&A$0.02M&A$0.00Restructuring Expense($0.05)SCOFR 3.0 / IIoT investmentRestructuring Expense$0.00

53、Cost Savings$0.09SCOFR 2.0Cost Savings$0.05SCOFR 3.0Stock comp expense($0.02)Stock comp expense$0.03Corporate$0.00Corporate$0.01Interest$0.05Interest$0.00Other$0.05Other($0.06)Tax($0.09)26% tax rateTax($0.01)26-27% tax rateShare Count$0.00Share Count$0.00End EPS (2020)$1.95End EPS (2021)$2.07Change

54、in EPS y-o-y$0.10Change in EPS y-o-y$0.12Source:CompanyData,BarclaysResearchSource:CompanyData,BarclaysResearchBroad ImpressionsSofar,organicsalesgrowthhasbeensimilartoQ2,at+2%,withmostweaknessconfined tothetypicalmarketsofAutomotive,Electronics,China,ShortCycleIndustrial,andUS Onshore UpstreamO&G.F

55、IGURE 10US Multi-Industry Organic Sales GrowthUSMultiUSMultiAverageUS MultiMedian7.0%OrganicOrganicSalesGrowth5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%Q1Q116Q216Q316Q416Q117Q217Q317Q417Q118Q218Q318Q418Q119Q2Q3 19* Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Source:CompanyData,BarclaysResearch,*Forcompaniesthathavereported (ALLE,CFX,DHR,DOV

56、,ETN,FLOW,FTV,GDI,GE,HON,IR,LII,MMM,NVT,PH, PNR,ROP,RXN,SWK,UTX)FIGURE 11Volumes are flattishAverageVolumeAverageVolumeAveragePrice7.0%OrganicOrganicSalesGrowth5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%Source:CompanyData,BarclaysResearch,Includes: ALLE,DHR,DOV,FTV,GDI, GTES,HON,IR,KMT,LII,NVT,PNR,RBC,ROK,SWK;*So

57、lelyforcompaniesthat havereported(ALLE,DHR(includingdental),DOV,FTV,GDI,HON,IR,LII,NVT, PNR,SWK)TheQ3orders/backlogtrendsforUSMIlookslightlybetterthanQ2sofar,thoughremain subdued.FIGURE 12US MI Order Growth14%12%10%Y/YY/YOrderGrowth6%4%2%0%-2%-4%Q117Q217Q317Q417Q117Q217Q317Q417Q118Q218Q318Q418Q119Q2

58、19Q319Source: Company Data, includes: DOV, EMR, ETN, FLOW, GDI, GE, HON (LC Backlog), IR, PHAmongthecompaniesthathavereported,updatedguidanceembedsaslightslowdownin Q4. KMTs profit warning (Q1 20 Warning; Multiple should rerate in the Heart of the Downturn; October 21, 2019), and comments from FTV (

59、PI sales drift down; FBS needs to stepup;October25,2019)andPH,suggestnoimminentShortCyclereboundinearly2020.FIGURE 132019 Organic Sales Growth Mid-Point Guidance vs. YTD average growthOrganicGrowth(%)Last9MonthsOrganicGrowth(%)Last9MonthsGuided2019Range(Midpoint)6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%S

60、ource: Barclays Research, Company Data, *guide for FY20 ending March 2020, *guide for FY20 ending June 2020Weshowbelowourperspectivesonwherewethinkdifferentend-marketssitinthephases oftheirrespectivecycles,andwherewethinkpotentialinflectionscouldoccur.Lateron, weshowquarterlyordersandsalesbyend-mark