1、中國消費者信心指數(shù)及消費趨勢解讀報告2013年第四季度Chinese Consumer Confidence Index & Consumption Trend 2013 Q42014年2月19日發(fā)布Published on Feb 19, 20142013年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)中有升，但與2012年相比經(jīng)濟(jì)增長呈放緩趨勢Chinas economy grew steadily in 2013, but the growth rate slowed moderately compared with 2012國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值對比去年同期增幅 GDP Growth vs. YA 數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國國家統(tǒng)計局,Sou

2、rce: National Bureau of Statistics of China 國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值行業(yè)構(gòu)成和占比年度變化 (百分比點)GDP Composition by Industry & YOY Change (% point) 46.1%Tertiary43.9%Secondary-1.4%+1.5%Share Point VS. 2012占比重要性差距同比2012-4.7%+6%第三產(chǎn)業(yè)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)處于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期的中國，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將更為注重效益和質(zhì)量Amid the transition period, chinas sustainable growth depends more on

3、effectiveness and quality全年萬元國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值能耗比與2012年相比 Energy Consumption Rate every 10 Thousand of GDP Value (2013 FY vs. 2012 FY)-3.7%產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化Industry Structure Change產(chǎn)業(yè)效益提升Effectiveness enhancementShare Point VS. 2008占比重要性差距同比2008數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國國家統(tǒng)計局 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 大多數(shù)零售行業(yè)受整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增速趨緩影

4、響均有不同幅度的增速下滑in 2013, most retail industries were impacted by the economy and showed slower growth 2013年中國社會消費品各品類零售總額對比去年同期增幅(年度) 2013 China Retail Sales Growth by Category vs. YA(MAT) 數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國國家統(tǒng)計局, Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 10%尼爾森全國快速消費品零售總額年度增長率%，更新至2013年12月（同比） Nielsen Nation

5、al FMCG Sales Value MAT Growth vs. Year Ago, Updated to Dec 2013尼爾森監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)也顯示快速消費品零售業(yè)持續(xù)放緩According to Nielsen tracking, FMCG Sales kept slowing down to single digit growth FMCG7%Food6%Non-Food7%FMCG15%Food14%Non-Food16%滾動年度MAT Dec 2013 快速消費品整體食品非食品滾動年度MAT Dec 2012 數(shù)據(jù)來源：尼爾森零售研究 (實體渠道，母體范圍據(jù)尼爾森定義)Data sou

6、rce: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition)全國尼爾森快速消費品零售品類滾動年度增長率(柱形圖頂部)和品類金額占比(% 柱形圖底部)(2013年12月同比)Nielsen National FMCG Sales Value MAT Growth vs. Year Ago (Top of bars) & Category Val Sales Importance % vs. Total FMCG Sales (%, Bottom of ba

7、rs) (MAT Dec 2013) 食品Food非食品 Non Food品類金額占整體快速消費品比例(柱形圖底部)Value Share vs. Total FMCG Sale Value2.52.81.00.23.13.90.21.51.50.8功能飲品即用型面膜 亞洲傳統(tǒng)飲料包裝水潔面后調(diào)養(yǎng)水避孕套巧克力唇膏醬油蠔油護(hù)膚用品但在社會整體消費放緩的趨勢下，一些品類仍然維持高速增長。Despite the slowdown of total consumption growth, some categories maintained robust growth.P5RMS data to d

8、ouble check數(shù)據(jù)來源：尼爾森零售研究 (實體渠道，母體范圍據(jù)尼爾森定義)Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition)Data owner: Dennis Ding, RSU, SH2013社會消費結(jié)構(gòu)在一些品類發(fā)生顯著變化：高端消費降溫，但與之相反，大眾消費持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長The consumption structure evolved in some categories in 2013: high-end co

9、nsumption slowed while Mass consumption rose 大排量汽車（3.0以上）Engine Power ( 3.0L)*YTD Jan 2013 - Nov, 20132013年1月到11月1.0-1.6升汽車Engine Power (1.0-1.6L)數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國國家商務(wù)部， 中國汽車工業(yè)協(xié)會 Source: Ministry of Commerce of China， China Association of Automobile Manufacture (CAAM)21.4%-20.7%13.9%2013年中國汽車銷量增長率 2013 China

10、Sales Growth of Automobile vs. YA (Volume)整體汽車Total Vehicle+10.8%Growth increase vs. 2012+9.6%Growth increase vs. 2012尼爾森監(jiān)測的白酒零售數(shù)據(jù)亦顯示相同的轉(zhuǎn)型趨勢，大眾消費的銷售比重上升the Nielsen Retail Index showed a similar trend in Chinese spirit : mass wine increased YOY share importance2013年中國白酒市場22個城市大賣場金額份額%2013 Chinese Spi

11、rit Market Value Share% in Hyper of 22 Cities數(shù)據(jù)來源：尼爾森零售研究 大賣場掃描數(shù)據(jù) (實體渠道，母體范圍據(jù)尼爾森定義， 22 個城市大賣場)Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service Scan Track (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition， 22 Cities Hyper)40.4%30.9%-5.21300 RMB/Unit大于1300元每瓶 300 RMB/Unit小于300元每瓶+3Share gap

12、vs. 2012與2012年相比份額變化Share gap vs. 2012與2012年相比份額變化消費者信心指數(shù)Consumer Confidence Index中國消費者的信心指數(shù)仍保持強勁增長，再創(chuàng)新高，第四季度達(dá)到五年來最高點with the growth of mass consumption, Chinese consumers confidence reached a historic high in Q4數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey全球平均美國中國94消費者信心指數(shù)Consumer Confiden

13、ce Index全球平均美國中國中國消費者的信心指數(shù)仍保持強勁增長，再創(chuàng)新高，第四季度達(dá)到五年來最高點with the growth of mass consumption, Chinese consumers confidence reached a historic high in Q4數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence SurveyUS全球平均美國中國94消費者信心指數(shù)Consumer Confidence Index全球平均美國中國111中國消費者的信心指數(shù)仍保持強勁增長，再創(chuàng)新高，第四季度達(dá)到五年來最高點with the g

14、rowth of mass consumption, Chinese consumers confidence reached a historic high in Q4數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey消費者信心指數(shù)構(gòu)成要素Components of CCI (% Top 2 Boxes)消費者信心指數(shù)的高漲來自就業(yè)預(yù)期回升以及消費意愿持續(xù)提高Strong consumers confidence was driven by the rebound of JOB PROSPECTS in q4 and continuo

15、us enhancement in willingness to spend7547P9數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey16-60周歲勞動人口數(shù)(百萬)及占總?cè)丝诒戎豅abor Population (Age: 16-60) (Million)919.567.6%937.269.2%20132012制造業(yè)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇，帶動用人需求上升，整體勞動力人口逐年減少continuous recovery in manufacturing stimulated the overall demand for labor however

16、, labor supply decreased YOY2012-2013年中國制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù) 2012-2013 China Manufacturing PMI50數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國國家統(tǒng)計局, Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China P10Deleted the decrease figure of labor population2013年中國社會消費品零售總額對比去年同期增長率(紅線為月度，藍(lán)色圓圈內(nèi)為滾動年度全年） 2013 China Retail Sales Growth vs. YA (Red Line : Monthly

17、, Blue Circle: MAT FY) 金銀珠寶 Gold and Silver Jewelry家具 Furniture社會消費品零售總額第四季度達(dá)到全年高點也印證了消費者消費意愿的提升china Retail sales kept rising and reached its peak in Q4, in line with growing consumer confidence21%25.8%總體Total13.1%數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國國家統(tǒng)計局 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China HideSteady growth of aver

18、age income人均收入穩(wěn)定增長Slowing rate of price increase物價上漲趨緩Chinese style shopping carnivals中國式 購物狂歡2013年消費收入穩(wěn)定增長，物價上漲趨緩，中國式購物狂歡等內(nèi)外力因素，都刺激消費者消費意愿的持續(xù)上揚THE RISE in WILLINGNESS TO SPEND WAS STIMULATED BY the FOLLOWING FACTORS: income growth, slowing rate of price increase, Shopping carnivalsP112013中國城鄉(xiāng)個人可支配收

19、入累計同比增長(扣除物價上漲因素)%2013 Disposable Income Growth(Excluding Price Inflation Factors) %城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民的人均收入保持穩(wěn)定增長，收入彈性升高Average INCOME OF urban and rural residents continued to grow steadily while income elasticity also increased26955+7.0%8896+9.3%收入彈性指數(shù)：GDP每增長為1%, 人均可支配收入相應(yīng)增長比例Income Elasticity Index： For e

20、very 1% increase in GDP, the rate of proportional increase in disposable income per capita0.760.9120131979-2012 Average1979-2013 平均城鎮(zhèn)Urban農(nóng)村RuralP12數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國國家統(tǒng)計局Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 消費者未來12個月總體物價水平預(yù)期 %Overall Price Prospect2.6%中國居民消費價格指數(shù)增幅 China CPI Growth 2.6%2012年2013年兩年間物

21、價漲幅穩(wěn)定，四季度消費者對未來物價預(yù)期相對樂觀with the steady and relatively low Level of CPI over the past 2 years, consumers expectations on price change are more optimistic數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence SurveyP13圣誕節(jié)Christmas春節(jié)Spring Festival中秋節(jié)Mid Autumn Festival情人節(jié)Valentines Day七夕Double Seventh Day雙十一

22、Nov 11國慶節(jié)National Day雙十二Dec 12母親節(jié) MothersDay父親節(jié)Fathers Day勞動節(jié)Labors Day線上線下廠商和零售商人為推動一波波中國式購物狂歡，進(jìn)一步刺激了消費者四季度的消費意愿momentum for Chinese style shopping increased through the year, resulting in booming willingness to spend in Q4第一季度 Q1第二季度 Q2第三季度 Q3第四季度 Q4元旦New Years Day2013年當(dāng)期快速消費品銷售金額占全年比重（黃色數(shù)字%）FMCG

23、Sales Val. Importance VS 2013 Full Year22%22%24%32%P14數(shù)據(jù)來源：尼爾森電子商務(wù)零售數(shù)據(jù)庫 (13個快速消費品類 2013), * 紅色球體大小不代表實際銷售額大小Source: Nielsen E-Commerce Retail Database (13 Nielsen Defined FMCG Categories 2013)， * Red Bubble size does not represent the size of sales .Data owner: Tony Tong Lei, GBSQ1 changed into 22%雙

24、旦中國消費者消費信心和意愿的高漲，預(yù)示2014將成為大眾消費的一年THE RISE OF consumer confidence and WILLINGNESS TO SPEND indicates 2014 is becoming the year of mass consumption!P152014消費者信心指數(shù)分城市級別 Consumer Confidence by City Tier積極消極進(jìn)一步解讀2014大眾消費年的機會點，從城市級別來看二三線城市消費者信心指數(shù)第四季度大幅上揚。Consumer confidence soared in Tier 2 & 3 Cities, su

25、ggesting opportunities for the year of Mass consumption in 2014數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence SurveyP16二，三線城市消費者信心指數(shù)構(gòu)成 Components of Consumer Confidence in Tier 2 & 3 Cities (% Top 2 Boxes)二三線消費者的就業(yè)預(yù)期和消費意愿上升幅度尤為明顯Consumer confidence in Tier 2 & 3 Cities rose sharply in employment ex

26、pectation and willingness to spend數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence SurveyTier2二線Tier 3三線P17新型城市化將使得我們重新審視中國的城市格局和未來發(fā)展方向Modern urbanization will change our vision about Chinas city tier LANDSCAPE and future developmentP18中國城鄉(xiāng)構(gòu)成及基本信息Chinese city/rural introduction數(shù)據(jù)來源：GDR, ACMR,& 尼爾森研究，

27、國家統(tǒng)計局 (城市數(shù)量依據(jù)尼爾森定義2013 Q3 City Master)Source: : GDR, ACMR, & Nielsen Research， National Bureau of Statistics ( City Number defined by Nielsen 2013 Q3 City Master)Tier 2二線Tier 3三線Tier 4四線Rural農(nóng)村4 Cities16 Million HH1 Trillion Income ValueTier 1一線23 Cities38 Million HH2 Trillion Income Value23個城市3800萬

28、戶家庭2萬億總收入229 Cities75 Million HH3 Trillion Income Value229個城市750萬戶家庭3萬億總收入1612 Cities86 Million HH3 Trillion Income Value1612個城市860萬戶家庭3萬億總收入30000 Towns / Township75 Million HH4 Trillion Income Value3萬個鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)750萬戶家庭4萬億總收入4 Cities16 Million HH1 Trillion Income Value4個城市1600萬戶家庭1萬億總收入未來的一線城市將從增長潛力巨大的二線和三線

29、城市中應(yīng)運而生Future Tier 1 cities are emerging out of tier 2 and 3 cities with huge growth potential P18bTier 2二線Tier 3三線Tier 4四線Rural農(nóng)村4 Cities16 Million HH1 Trillion Income ValueTier 1一線23 Cities38 Million HH2 Trillion Income Value23個城市3800萬戶家庭2萬億總收入229 Cities75 Million HH3 Trillion Income Value229個城市75

30、00萬戶家庭3萬億總收入1612 Cities86 Million HH3 Trillion Income Value1612個城市8600萬戶家庭3萬億總收入30000 Towns / Township75 Million HH4 Trillion Income Value3萬個鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)7500萬戶家庭4萬億總收入4 Cities16 Million HH1 Trillion Income Value4個城市1600萬戶家庭1萬億總收入中國城鄉(xiāng)構(gòu)成及基本信息Chinese city/rural introduction數(shù)據(jù)來源：GDR, ACMR,& 尼爾森研究，國家統(tǒng)計局 (城市數(shù)量依據(jù)尼爾森

31、定義2013 Q3 City Master)Source: : GDR, ACMR, & Nielsen Research， National Bureau of Statistics ( City Number defined by Nielsen 2013 Q3 City Master)新一線市場將成為中國大眾消費增長的新引擎Emerging Tier 1 Cities will become the power house of mass consumption Emerging Tier 1新一線44% FMCG Sales ValImportance+6%尼爾森監(jiān)測快速消費品二三線城

32、市金額占比及滾動年度增長率 (2013年12月)Tier 2&3 City FMCG Val Importance based on National FMCG Sales as Nielsen defined & Val Growth Rate (Dec 2013 MAT)城市和家庭戶數(shù)量和總收入City and Household Numbers (2010)Tier 2二線Tier 3三線P19數(shù)據(jù)來源：GDR, ACMR,& 尼爾森研究，國家統(tǒng)計局 , 尼爾森零售研究(2013年12月, 城市數(shù)量依據(jù)尼爾森定義2013 Q3 City Master) ,中國消費者信心調(diào)查(2013第三

33、季度媒體接觸習(xí)慣) Source: : GDR, ACMR, & Nielsen Research， National Bureau of Statistics ( City Number defined by Nielsen 2013 Q3 City Master, ( City Number defined by Nielsen 2013 Q3 City Master) , Nielsen Retail Index (Dec 2013), China Consumer Confidence Survey (Media Habit, 2013 Q3)新一線的重要性毋庸置疑，對有些品類來說，發(fā)

34、展?jié)摿τ绕渚薮驟merging Tier 1 cities are increasingly important for certain categories 48%41%尼爾森監(jiān)測快速消費品二三線城市金額占比及滾動年度增長率 (2013年12月)Tier 2&3 City FMCG Val Importance based on National FMCG Sales as Nielsen defined & Val Growth Rate (Dec 2013 MAT)潔面后調(diào)養(yǎng)水Toner酸奶/酸奶飲料Yogurt/Yogurt Drink46%護(hù)膚品Skin Moisturizer巧克力

35、Confectionary Chocolate51%增長率Growth16%11%13%11%新一線Emerging Tier 1其他城市級別 Others金額占比Value ImportanceP20Shirley to double check dataData owner: Dennis Ding, RSU, SH數(shù)據(jù)來源：尼爾森零售研究 (實體渠道，母體范圍據(jù)尼爾森定義)Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition)

36、一線Tier 1二線Tier 2三線Tier 3四線Tier 4農(nóng)村Rural2013新開門店占比2013 New Open Store Counts(Modern Trade)過去3個月，網(wǎng)上購物滲透率(%) Online Shopping Incidence in P3M (%)在新一線，實體零售渠道不斷完善，而新興電商渠道也蓬勃發(fā)展。in the emerging tier 1 market, Traditional retail channels continued to expand alongside the booming e-commerce channelP21Emergin

37、g Tier 1新一線Emerging Tier 1新一線數(shù)據(jù)來源：各大零售商 (尼爾森定義)，中國消費者信心調(diào)查(2013第三季度媒體接觸習(xí)慣) Source: : Retailers (Defined by Nielsen), Nielsen Retail Index (Dec 2013), China Consumer Confidence Survey (Media Habit, 2013 Q3)在252個向新一線邁進(jìn)的二三線城市中，綜合考量以下潛質(zhì)，一些城市將有機會脫穎而出amongst the 252 tier 2 & 3 cities, the cities with a str

38、ong mix of the following five key factors have high potential to emerge as tier 1 Cities龐大的人口基數(shù)Massive population 較強的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)(地區(qū)國民總值)Strong economy (GDP)較高的人均可支配收入High Disposable Income Per Capita發(fā)達(dá)的快速消費品渠道和快速消費品重要性Mature Modern Trade for FMCG Categories一定規(guī)模的零售總額Sizable Retail Sales$Emerging Tier 1新一線數(shù)據(jù)

39、來源：尼爾森零售研究 位置信息 (母體范圍據(jù)尼爾森定義) ， 國家統(tǒng)計局Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service - Linx (Universe based upon Nielsen definition)， National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Customs Statistics P22選取一些典型的潛力巨大的“新一線城市”作為范例A case study of three potential “emerging tier 1” CitiesCaseStudy社會消費品零售總額 9

40、00 億元/ 90 BillionRetail Sales城鎮(zhèn)人均可支配收入 5000 RMB/5000元Urban Disposable Income地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值 GDP: 4000億元/圖標(biāo)/400 Bil /Icon 人口 Population: 300萬人/ 3 Million現(xiàn)代通路城市發(fā)展指數(shù) 10分/ 10 Index PointsModern Trade City Development Index每單位圖標(biāo)代表 Each unit icon represents:重慶 Chongqing蘇州 Suzhou西安 Xian數(shù)據(jù)來源：尼爾森零售研究 位置信息 (母體范圍據(jù)尼爾森定義

41、) ， 國家統(tǒng)計局Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service - Linx (Universe based upon Nielsen definition)， National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Customs Statistics P23Data owner: William Li, RSU數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey最關(guān)注事項+ 第二最關(guān)注事項 以及健康在不同城市級別排名（黑色小圈） Biggest +

42、2nd biggest concerns & Health Ranking Amid Different Cities (Black Circle)從消費者的關(guān)注點來看發(fā)展大眾消費：健康是大多數(shù)城市消費者最為關(guān)注的問題。Another opportunity in the year of Mass consumption: Health is the top concern for consumers from most city tiersP24健康Health收入Income消費者關(guān)注健康的比例Consumers claim Health Concern (% Top 2 Concerns

43、)新一線消費者對健康的關(guān)注度在第四季度進(jìn)一步大幅增長，首次超越一線消費者Consumers in Emerging Tier 1 cities concerned about health showed substantial growth, exceeding tier 1 consumers for the first timeP25數(shù)據(jù)來源：中國消費者信心調(diào)查Source: China Consumer Confidence Survey+4.4pt那些與健康與功能相關(guān)的品類或細(xì)分品類保持了快速增長的勢頭Categories and sub-categories with health

44、& wellness concept maintained robust growth in 2014P26數(shù)據(jù)來源：尼爾森零售研究 (實體渠道，母體范圍據(jù)尼爾森定義), 更新至2013年12月Data source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Service (Offline Retail Sales，Universe based upon Nielsen definition)， updated to Dec 2013.銷售金額滾動年度增長率MAT Value Growth銷售金額占比Value ImportanceCaseStudy雪梨汁：中國傳統(tǒng)食療養(yǎng)生概念

45、仍然可以為健康創(chuàng)新提供素材Chinese Traditional Health & Wellness Concept as well as the Chinese Food Recipe treatment can provide elements for product/category innovation乳制品類：脂肪量越低，增長越快 中國消費者對健康的追求業(yè)已越來越接受西方的健康理念Chinese consumers are more accepting of western health concepts compared to the past, such as in the dairy category: the lower the fat, the higher the value growth.21金額增長率Val. Gr