Unit3ElNino?LaNina?PartID.warmer/greenhouseeffect/sealevels/climatezonesAs1998endsandpeoplelookforwardtothelastyearofthecentury,theWorldAlmanacspokewithexpertsaboutwhatcomesnext.Almanaceditorialdirectorsaystheexpertsbelievethenextcenturywillbringlotsofchanges.Warm,ofcourse,thatourclimateisgoingtocontinuegettingwarmer.That’sthesubject,bytheway,ofanothernewarticleonthe1999WorldAlmanac.Thegreenhouseeffect,exactlywhatcausesit,andwhatstepstobetakento,perhapstoalleviateglobalwarmings.I’veseenrecentlythat1998isgoingtogodownasthewarmestyeareveronrecord.Andsothat’sgoingtobeamajorissueofthenextcentury,andpossibletremendousconsequencesoftheglobalwarmings,whetheritisrisingsealevelsaffectingthecoastalareas;changesinclimatezonesaffectingwhatcropscanbegrown,andinwhatregions.Thisispotentiallyaverysignificanttrendtobewatched.E.Cyclone:Northorsouthofequator/Typhoon:/Hurricane:EasternPacificMajoroceanstormsinthenorthernpartoftheworldusuallydevelopinlatesummerorautumnoverwatersneartheequator.Theyareknownbyseveraldifferentnames.ScientistscallthesestormscycloneswhentheyhappenjustnorthorsouthoftheequatorintheIndianOcean.InthewesternPacificOceanortheChinaSea,thesestormsarecalledtyphoons.IntheeasternPacificandAtlanticOcean,theyarecalledhurricanes.PartIIA.Outline1.A.weatherpattern/globalclimateB.1.twiceadecade2.12-18monthsC.1.warmerweather/2.wetterthanusual/drierD.thedeclineofwindsII.1.droughtsB.acyclicweatherpattern/abouttwiceadecade/wetter/drier/coldwaterawayfromSouthAmerica’swest/toexpandeastwardtowardtheAmerica’s/moveeastwardtoo/theweatheraroundtheworld/droughts/rainsandflooding/ontheSouthAmericanfishingindustry/tobecomedepletive/thestrengthofit/SatellitereadingsconfirmthatconditionsarerightforanotherElNino,acyclicweatherpatternthataffectstheglobalclimate.ElNino’snormallyshowupabouttwiceadecadeanditlastsabout12to18months,bringingwarmerweathertopartsoftheearth.Someregionsbecomewetterthanusual,othersdrier.TheElNino,whichbeganin1991haslingeredthroughthisyear.Althoughseveralyearsmighthavebeenexpectedtopassbeforethenextone,anAmerican-FrenchsatelliteobservingtheoceanshasfoundasignthatElNinomaycomebackquickerthanexpected.Thesekindsofthingsstillhappen.ThisisBrigJacker,anoceanographeroftheUSNavalResearchLaboratoryinMississippi.Everyyearisunpredictable.OneyearmightbeElNinoyear,oneyearmightnot.GenerallyElNino’scomeinfouryearcycles.Butthere’snothingtosaythatyoucan’thavetwoElNinoyearsinarow.ElNino’sbeginwiththedeclineofwindspullingcoldwaterawayfromSouthAmerica’swestcoasttoaroundtheequator.ThisallowswarmwaterinthewesternPacificOceantoexpandeastwardtowardtheAmerica’s.Atthesametime,thecloudsandrainoverthewarmwatermoveeastwardtoo.RadaraboardtheAmerican-FrenchsatellitedetectedthehintthatsuchwatermovementbeganinearlyAugustandreachedSouthAmericatwomonthslater.Itsawaripplecalleda“Calvinwave”movingslowlyeastward.SuchpulsessometimesgiverisetoElNinoconditionsintheeasternequatorialPacific.ElNino’scanchangetheweatheraroundtheworld,buthowmuchdependsonitsstrength.Astrongonein1982and1983hasbeenlinkedtodroughtsinAustraliaandIndonesia,rainsandfloodinginSouthAmerica,andunseasonablyin1991hascausedtrouble.IthasbeenassociatedwithdevastatingfloodsintheUSsoutheastlastyearandintheUSMidwestthisyear.ElNino’sarehardontheSouthAmericanfishingindustry.Thewarmwaterspreventnutrientsrichcoldwaterfromrisingtothesurface,causingfishstockstobecomedepletive.Mr.JackersaidanewElNinoapparentlywouldbemildbutheisnotbettingonityet.TheUSNavaloceanographersayspredictionsaredifficultbecausethestrengthofElNinodependsonhowwindsaffecttheCalvinwavethathasmovedacrossthePacific.PartIIILickObservatoryB.location:anhour’sdrive/summit/Originofthename:awealthybusinessmanSize:onemeterdiameter/secondTime:1888Presentfunction:research/aneducationaltoolC.wayofobservation:humaneyes;inthecold/TVscreenGainsandlosses:Romance/thesky/efficiency/reality/universeQuestions:1.BecauselickObservatoryisnear“SiliconValley”,aregionofthestateshigh-technology.2.BecauseLickObservatorywasbuiltonhisestateandhewasburiedatthebaseofthetelescopeatthiswonrequest.3.Byusingthe19thcenturytelescope,youhaveafeelingofromancewithdirectviewingwiththehumaneyes.Bysingthemoderndevices,youlosethatromancebutgaintheefficiency.That’sanexchange.It’saboutanhour’sdrivefromtheoutskirtsofSanJose,California,neartheuppersideofthestate’shigh-technologyregionknownasSiliconValley.Asavisitordrivesupthenarrowwindingroadpastredflowers,andeucalyptustrees,oneofthefirsttwoseismographicstationsintheworld,it’salmostasurprisetoglimpsethelargestdomeofLickObservatory’seighttelescopes.Overlookingtheworldofcomputeragemanufacturingaretelescopesfromtheturnofthecenturywhichhelpshapeourunderstandingoftheuniverse.Thehugedome,housingLickObservatory’sgiant,onemeterwidereflectingtelescope,isoneofthefewinstrumentsinmotionthismorningonMountHamilton.Atthe1260-metersummitofMountHamiltonisasmallvillageof55permanentresidents,someofthemstudentsinaone-roomschoolhouse.Butmostattheresearchcomplexarevisitingastronomerscatchingtheirfirsthoursofsleepinanolddormitoryafteranight’sworkatthetelescopes.RemintonStone,directorofoperationsatLickObservatoryhasworkedatthetopofMountHamiltonforthreedecades.NowapartoftheUniversityofCalifornia,LickObservatorygotitsnamefromawelthybusinessmanwhoneverstudiedastronomyasMR.Stoneexplains:“AndhecametoSanFrancisco,justbeforethegoldrushandhemadeahugeamountofmoneyonrealestate.Whenhedied,hespecifiedthatsomeportionofhisestateshouldbeusedtobuildthelargestandmostpowerfultelescopeyetmadeandwhichwasa36inchatthattime.Andathisownrequestheisburiedatthebaseofthetelescope.Sothissamemorialtohimself.”Thetelescopewithitsode-meter-diameterreflectinglenswasthelargesttelescopeintheworldforsevenyearsfollowingitscompletionin1888.andtoday,its’stillthesecondlargesttelescopeofitskind.Althoughtheonemeterreflectingtelescopeisstillusedforsomeresearch,itshardtoadapttoday’selectronicinstrumentstotheoldhistorictelescope.Now,itisusedmostlyasaneducationaltoolforteachersandthethousandsofvisitorswhocomeeachyear.WhiletheothertelescopesatLickObservatoryareconnectedtoelectronicimaginedevicesthatallowtheastronomerstoviewcelestialobjectsontelevisionscreens,the19thcenturytelescopeallowsdirectviewingwiththehumaneye.It’soneofthefewgianttelescopesintheworldthtstillrequiressomeuserstositoutinthecoldunderthedarkskyandthedome.ThatbringsafeelingofnostalgiatoRemintonStone.Ireallydomissbeingabletoseethesky,andseeingthesewonderfuldataappearinthecomputerscreenisreallynice,butit’sverydivorcedfromthereality,fromtheuniverse.Imissalotbeinginadarkplaceinthesefieldstolookuptoseethestars.Wegoouteverynowandthenifweareworkingat…,we’reatthecontrolroom,wedogoouttokeeptrackoftheskies,wherethecloudsare,andsoforth,butonelosestheromanceandonegainsgreatlytheefficiency.It’satrade-off.AstronomerRemintonStone,whomanagestheLickObservatorycomplexatthetopofmountHamilton,California.PartIV.ThenationalclimaticDataCenter.A.OutlineI.A.1951B.headquartersC.satellites,radar,solarradiationsystem,airplanes,shipsII.B.collectingweatherrecordsfromaroundtheworldD.publicationsaboutearthenvironment.E.requestsfroinformationfromallovertheworld.B.questions.1.TheDepartmentofDefense,theNationalWeatherService,thecoastguard2.TheofficehaswrittenweatherobservationsmadebyearlyAmericandiplomatBenjaminFranklinandbythethirdPresidentoftheU.S.3.Youcangettheinformationbycomputer,microfilmandtelephone4.Americancities.Anotherpublicationhasmonthlyreportsfrom1500observationstationsaroundtheworld.5.Thecenterhadmorethan900,000requestsfromgovernmentofficials,businessowners,weatherresearchersandthegeneralpubliclastyear.Moreandmorepeopleneedtoknowabouttheweather.AnyonewantinginformationaboutpastweatherconditionscanturntoacentersupportedbytheUnitedStatesgovernment.TheNationalClimaticDataCenterreportedlyhastheworld’slargestactivecollectionofweatherinformation.TheNationalClimaticDataCenterorNCDCwasformedin1951.itwasestablishedasarecordcenterforAmerica’sDepartmentofCommerce.ItsheadquartersisinthesoutherncityofAsheville,NorthCarolina.TheNCDCcollectsweatherrecordsgatheredbyanumberofweatherobserversandtheUntiedStatesgovernmentagencies.TheDepartmentofDefense,theNationalWeatherServiceandthecoastguardareamongthoseprovidingweatherinformation.Thecenteralsocollectsweatherrecordsfromaroundtheworld.SomeinformationheldbytheNCDCisonlyafewhoursold.Otherrecordsarealotolder.Forexample,theofficehaswrittenweatherobservationsmadebyearlyAmericandiplomatBenjaminFranklinandbythethirdPresidentoftheUnitedStatesThomasJefferson.Todaymodernscientificequipmentincludingsatellites,radarandsolarradiationsystemshelppeoplelearnabouttheweather.Informationcollectedbyairplanesandshipsalsoisused.TheNCDCorganizesthisinformationandhelpsprepareitforpublicationandotheruses.Thecenterassistsintheproductionofwrittenrecords,weathermapsandpictures.Theinformationalsoissharedbycomputer,microfilmandtelephone.TheNCDCproducesseveralpublicationsaboutearthenvironment.Onehasmonthlyandyearlyrecordsaboutweatherconditionsinabout270Americancities.Anotherpublicationhasmonthlyreportsfrom1500observationstationsaroundtheworld.Italsohasinformationfromabout800upperairstationswhichmeasureweatherconditionsatalllevelsoftheatmosphere.TheNationalClimaticDataCenterreceivesrequestsforinformationfromallovertheworld.Lastyearthecenterreportedlyhadmorethan900,000requestsfromgovernmentofficials,businessowners,weatherresearchersandthegeneralpublic.PartVDoyouknow…?Meaning:littlegirlTime:thewesterncoastofSouthAmerica/ThePacificcoastofPeruandEcuadorTime:wintermonthsDuration:onetotwoyears.Evidence:theeasternPacificoceanImpacts:thoseofELNino/drierthannormalandotherswetter.ScientistssaytheweathereventknownasElNinoisending.ScientificinstrumentshaveshownthatthePacificOceanwaterswarmedbyElNinoarebecomingcooler.Manyweatherexpertsareexpectingthechangeinoceantemperaturestoleadtoconditionsknownas