紡織服裝2023中期策略——《在不確定中尋找邊際變化》2023年6月26日A股重點個股梳理年初至今，品牌服飾企業(yè)市場表現(xiàn)突出，我們認(rèn)為主要依托于較強的業(yè)績修復(fù)。表：A股重點個股市場表現(xiàn)所屬行業(yè)細(xì)分行業(yè)紗線公司名稱2023年初至2023/6/9漲跌幅疫情（2020.3）至2023/6/9漲跌幅百隆東方華孚時尚富春染織新澳股份偉星股份安利股份興業(yè)科技魯泰A7.2%4.9%93.5%-50.1%-29.8%124.3%136.4%30.7%41.5%-26.3%-40.4%-11.9%49.9%-50.9%109.9%-11.0%-52.3%146.3%111.5%1.5%上游5.6%45.9%-6.9%-6.2%4.7%服裝輔料皮革紡織制造-10.3%-22.0%2.9%棉紡成品制造盛泰集團健盛集團臺華新材華利集團牧高笛下游化纖紡織成品制造鞋類成品制造-5.4%-16.2%-27.6%-16.0%-3.2%25.3%39.8%23.4%27.9%30.9%65.4%39.7%-2.4%10.5%2.0%戶外箱包浙江自然開潤股份比音勒芬報喜鳥運動時尚/中高端男裝森馬服飾太平鳥大眾服飾65.7%21.9%37.6%10.6%-4.9%之家錦泓集團歌力思品牌服飾中高端女裝地素時尚欣賀股份羅萊生活富安娜-14.4%58.2%56.6%15.1%-34.4%12.2%-2.6%21.9%9.8%家紡水星家紡眾望布藝上證指數(shù)滬深300SW紡服指數(shù)5.7%4.6%參考指數(shù)-0.9%0.5%-18.0%2資料：Wind，截止日期2023年6月9日，證券研究所A股重點個股梳理23Q1品牌服飾板塊歸母凈利潤增速明顯反彈，紡織制造板塊則階段性承壓，我們認(rèn)為主要受海外庫存清理的影響。表：A股重點個股主要財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)增速及預(yù)測增速收入增速22Q4-43.1%-71.0%-11.1%11.5%-17.8%-20.0%19.6%3.6%歸母凈利潤增速22Q4預(yù)測收入增速2023

2024預(yù)測凈利潤增速所屬行業(yè)細(xì)分行業(yè)紗線公司名稱22Q37.8%23Q1-24.8%9.3%22Q38.5%23Q1-75.6%-65.4%-13.1%21.2%-17.7%2023-13.7%217.3%54.3%18.2%9.4%202413.2%35.3%30.8%19.4%19.3%0.0%百隆東方華孚時尚富春染織新澳股份偉星股份安利股份興業(yè)科技魯泰A-9.4%0.0%16.5%36.8%15.4%9.0%13.8%11.0%27.0%17.9%17.5%-14.5%-2.0%6.3%-94.4%-65.8%14.2%28.2%-79.7%30.7%222.4%97.1%10.1%-50.1%25.1%-5.0%-623.7%-67.4%上游-0.2%9.4%23.4%服裝輔料皮革11.5%-3.2%52.8%39.3%15.0%-7.7%-21.8%23.3%56.0%-1.2%43.8%20.1%4.5%-3.6%-10.4%79.0%-12.8%-4.7%-6.6%2.7%-163.6%-218.5%373.9%166.7%9.6%-108.3%629.6%-39.9%-8.2%-0.0%33.5%6.7%18.7%10.6%15.5%17.0%29.3%17.7%26.2%19.0%17.2%20.8%16.8%11.3%12.6%11.6%13.6%16.6%12.9%15.3%11.7%10.2%11.6%23.2%47.1%-3.3%26.1%15.0%21.1%22.6%45.4%20.6%32.6%20.9%35.3%23.6%20.5%24.6%19.8%17.0%32.9%32.0%18.0%22.6%15.8%11.7%17.4%27.1%紡織制造盛泰集團健盛集團臺華新材華利集團牧高笛3.0%13.0%5.7%15.8%5.4%下游成品制造1.1%50.7%-53.0%-35.1%-25.8%-21.5%-20.9%-24.7%41.4%24.2%48.8%14.2%11.1%149.3%0.4%-16.0%7.4%-133.1%1.5%23.7%7.7%94.0%5.2%-11.2%4.8%39.4%-19.8%-18.7%-12.2%-13.8%-18.7%-32.3%-19.0%-20.8%-5.9%44.2%20.0%9.6%19.5%15.4%227.1%32.0%32.8%66.0%271.6%28.2%273.6%1381.8%56.7%106.2%26.5%12.7%34.0%5.7%戶外箱包浙江自然開潤股份比音勒芬報喜鳥-27.2%21.0%33.1%11.5%-9.3%-15.8%9.0%-45.4%-62.8%30.4%13.8%-39.8%-86.5%19.2%395.0%-45.5%-25.1%-42.9%-18.9%8.2%-62.3%-179.5%-6.9%13.3%27.2%20.7%12.4%11.0%17.3%14.0%19.0%14.3%20.2%12.2%9.6%運動時尚/中高端男裝-23.6%-32.8%-73.9%-8.5%森馬服飾太平鳥-5.8%-15.4%3.4%大眾服飾之家錦泓集團歌力思0.5%8.1%-100.4%-201.7%-93.2%-100.5%-18.3%-9.8%品牌服飾0.2%6.0%中高端女裝家紡地素時尚欣賀股份羅萊生活富安娜-7.8%-11.7%-9.3%-5.0%2.2%-22.1%-26.2%-9.4%2.3%9.3%-10.5%-3.6%-7.6%1.4%-21.2%11.1%5.3%-7.8%水星家紡眾望布藝-13.2%-42.3%-11.9%-74.8%-29.5%-72.2%-1.2%12.7%8.5%-50.1%-31.1%-54.8%資料：Wind，預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)來自Wind一致預(yù)期，截止日期2023年6月9日，證券研究所3A股重點個股梳理根據(jù)wind一致預(yù)期，2023年6月9日紡服指數(shù)PE較19年同期溢價19.1%，分板塊而言，品牌服飾估值多數(shù)有明顯修復(fù)，紡織制造板塊估值仍普遍有所折價。表：A股重點個股估值情況年初P/E目前P/E估值折價率2023/6/9相對2019/6/9的估值折價率所屬行業(yè)細(xì)分行業(yè)紗線公司名稱201920236.3x201911.6x13.0x-20236.8x13.2x9.6x11.1x17.5x-百隆東方華孚時尚富春染織新澳股份偉星股份安利股份興業(yè)科技魯泰A11.5x8.1x--41.6%1.8%-8.2x上游9.0x-7.6x15.5x14.2x21.2x28.5x8.7x-28.2%23.9%-服裝輔料皮革12.1x18.5x27.3x8.7x-15.5x10.0x12.4x6.3x14.3x5.2x-49.9%-39.7%紡織制造盛泰集團健盛集團臺華新材華利集團牧高笛11.4x8.1x-10.7x11.2x16.4x16.0x17.5x16.3x24.1x19.1x13.3x16.0x16.3x10.2x14.4x15.5x11.9x16.4x13.3x11.1x10.3x21.5x24.6x22.3x-下游成品制造16.5x11.0x-13.5x14.1x--17.3%16.0%-12.8x16.9x18.2x14.6x20.7x14.7x9.2x---戶外箱包浙江自然開潤股份比音勒芬報喜鳥---24.9x17.2x21.5x12.7x10.9x9.9x7.8x11.9x13.4x-27.6x20.4x27.8x14.4x10.9x10.3x7.3x10.6x13.0x--12.5%-6.4%-52.0%10.7%50.3%-1.5%98.8%46.2%-9.0%-運動時尚/中高端男裝森馬服飾太平鳥12.4x15.8x8.7x大眾服飾之家錦泓集團歌力思7.4x品牌服飾10.5x11.0x12.4x12.2x8.9x中高端女裝家紡地素時尚欣賀股份羅萊生活富安娜10.3x9.7x10.9x-13.7x10.2x14.2x--3.1%8.8%-27.7%-水星家紡眾望布藝SW紡服指數(shù)SW紡織制造8.8x-18.8x15.9x22.8x21.6x20.7x16.6x19.1%34.4%參考指數(shù)資料：Wind，預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)來自Wind一致預(yù)期，截止日期2023年6月9日，證券研究所4港臺+海外重點個股情況2023年初至今，港臺服飾個股市場表現(xiàn)大部分承壓，海外市場有所分化，我們認(rèn)為，①疫情期間（2020年3月-2022年12月）業(yè)績高速成長企業(yè)市場表現(xiàn)有所承壓；②以業(yè)績反轉(zhuǎn)邏輯支撐的公司如Adidas，今年以來股價表現(xiàn)較優(yōu)；③有持續(xù)成長性預(yù)期的公司如Deckers、lululemon、以及休閑服等，股價表現(xiàn)較好。表：港臺及海外重點個股市場表現(xiàn)所屬行業(yè)細(xì)分行業(yè)公司名稱2023年初至2023/6/9漲跌幅疫情（2020.3）至2023/6/9漲跌幅安踏李寧-16.2%-31.5%-3.2%-1.9%9.0%41.3%130.6%195.9%78.0%65.9%-10.1%-66.2%-24.1%13.5%35.4%22.2%-36.1%-29.4%62.6%344.0%236.8%-69.8%181.0%65.8%-1.9%大眾運動及戶外特步波司登箱包新秀麗港臺滔搏9.9%渠道商寶勝國際申洲國際豐泰企業(yè)儒鴻-12.0%-21.2%-6.1%-1.6%-9.0%25.5%-13.7%28.2%7.2%供應(yīng)鏈NikeAdidasPuma大眾運動SkechersCrocsAsics34.0%-28.8%22.3%12.5%-11.4%31.4%16.7%11.8%-12.4%34.3%27.7%-30.2%13.6%26.7%12.0%-2.0%19.4%VF集團DeckersLululemonColumbia優(yōu)衣庫海外戶外和高端運動98.7%11.6%18.6%-23.9%18.6%-17.3%-20.6%320.7%54.8%45.5%-25.8%49.5%PVHRalph

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Sporting

Goods納斯達克指數(shù)標(biāo)普500恒生指數(shù)臺灣加權(quán)指數(shù)參考指數(shù)5資料：Wind，截止日期2023年6月9日，證券研究所港臺+海外重點個股情況2023年6月9日相較19年同期，港臺及海外服飾個股估值變化有較大分化。我們認(rèn)為，①基于良好的持續(xù)成長預(yù)期，休閑服品類多數(shù)估值上行，②部分港股運動板塊的估值下行與今年以來一致預(yù)期的階段性走弱相關(guān)，如李寧、安踏，③部分海外運動今年以來一致預(yù)期的走強則帶動了估值提升，如Skechers、Deckers。表：港臺及海外重點個股估值情況年初P/E目前P/E估值折價率2023目前相對19年同期的折價率所屬行業(yè)細(xì)分行業(yè)公司名稱201920.5x19.3x13.3x-202327.7x31.1x18.2x17.2x13.1x17.2x7.2x201925.2x31.6x12.2x23.7x12.9x-202325.1x25.0x18.7x17.2x11.1x20.1x6.1x安踏李寧-0.2%-20.8%53.2%-27.3%-13.7%-大眾運動及戶外特步波司登新秀麗滔搏箱包14.5x-港臺渠道商寶勝國際申洲國際豐泰企業(yè)儒鴻13.7x23.3x19.0x18.9x27.8x19.1x-15.6x26.2x24.7x23.8x32.0x27.1x--60.7%-20.7%1.0%23.7x21.1x20.8x37.6x25.1x-20.8x24.9x25.3x32.1x-49.8x-供應(yīng)鏈6.3%Nike0.4%AdidasPuma-283.7%-大眾運動SkechersCrocs10.9x22.5x22.2x17.2x17.3x28.0x20.3x35.4x8.9x13.8x10.0x22.9x11.7x19.3x27.9x15.7x36.2x7.9x15.1x17.5x36.1x25.1x19.0x37.1x21.2x40.8x9.0x17.0x10.4x29.7x9.0x12.4%-40.8%-17.8%-64.2%17.0%-18.7%-29.6%13.0%-8.4%-13.2%204.7%2.4%AsicsVF集團DeckersLululemonColumbia優(yōu)衣庫PVH22.3x30.2x14.9x46.1x8.2x戶外和高端運動海外Ralph

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SportingGoods9.5x9.9x10.7x10.0x-6.7%資料：Bloomberg，證券研究所6注：截止日期2023年6月9日，預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)來自Bloomberg一致預(yù)期，時間為自然年/季度，如財年/季不能完全匹配自然年/季度，則取最接近值。行業(yè)表現(xiàn)—品牌端國內(nèi)零售表現(xiàn)3月以來主要受低基數(shù)效應(yīng)影響，增速上行，23年4月與21年同期相比，消費品/服裝類/服裝鞋帽針紡織品零售額分別增長5.3%/4.0%/2.0%。海外方面，通脹壓力仍大，但22H2起美國CPI增速小幅回落，服裝類CPI增速低于美國整體CPI增速，23年以來，美國服裝店銷售額增速整體高于CPI增速，體現(xiàn)出服裝銷量有所增長，表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于零售整體。圖：中國消費品零售額增速（%）圖：中國服裝及紡織品零售額增速（%）40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%中國服裝類零售額增速(%)中國服裝鞋帽針紡織品類零售額增速80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%0%-5%-10%-20%-30%-40%-10%-15%圖：美國零售和食品服務(wù)銷售額及CPI增速（%）圖：美國服裝店銷售額及CPI增速（%）美國服裝CPI美國服裝店銷售額增速美國服裝CPI美國服裝店銷售額增速美國CPI美國零售和食品服務(wù)銷售額增速900%800%700%600%500%400%300%200%100%0%30%25%20%15%10%5%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%0%-100%-5%-10%7資料：Wind，證券研究所運動賽道保持韌性，國內(nèi)品牌勢頭更優(yōu)在國內(nèi)零售面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)的情況下，國產(chǎn)運動品牌表現(xiàn)可圈可點，流水增速整體持續(xù)優(yōu)于海外品牌。表：港股及海外主要品牌大中華區(qū)增速時間安踏主品牌FILA2021Q140-45%75-80%115-120%80-90%約55%151%2021Q235-40%30-35%70-75%90-100%30-35%-16%2021Q32021Q410-20%高單位正增長30-35%30-40%20-25%-19%2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q1中單位數(shù)負(fù)增

中單位數(shù)正增

高單位數(shù)的負(fù)

中單位數(shù)的正10-20%10-20%長長增長增長中單位數(shù)正增長中單位數(shù)正增

高單位數(shù)負(fù)增高單位數(shù)的正增長10-20%10-20%負(fù)增長長長Descente、Kolon等35-40%40-50%中雙位數(shù)增長-11%40-45%20-25%40-45%40-50%20-25%-28%10-20%75-80%高單位數(shù)負(fù)增長李寧特步20-30%30-35%-28%9%10-20%負(fù)增長

中單位數(shù)增長高單位數(shù)同比中雙位數(shù)增長-35%20%-9%3%下降A(chǔ)didasSkechersVF集團Nike-50%174%51%10%9%-20%-51%-24%-7%-3%-81%19%9%-6%-13%-5%-33%-15%-51%17%11%-20%-19%-16%1%2年復(fù)合增速2年復(fù)合增速

2年復(fù)合增速

中國71家店LululemonPuma-30%70%79%正增長90%70%60%關(guān)店15家40%-4%-16%-27%-37%-43%-26%1%資料Skechers21Q1-23Q1季度報告，VF集團FY21Q4-FY23Q1季度報告，NikeFY21Q3-FY23Q1季度報告，Lululemon21Q1-23Q1業(yè)績報告，Puma21Q1-23Q1季度報告，證券研究所：安踏體育21Q1-23Q1運營公告，李寧21Q1-23Q1運營公告，特步國際21Q1-23Q1運營公告，Adidas21Q1-23Q1季度報告，8優(yōu)質(zhì)品牌凈開店延續(xù)，直營渠道貢獻業(yè)績潛力疫情擾動開店節(jié)奏，但多家休閑運動品牌仍呈凈開店趨勢，我們認(rèn)為，這體現(xiàn)了較強實力與提前布局的魄力，在市場低迷時期開店可獲得更優(yōu)的開店成本，隨零售環(huán)境逐步恢復(fù)將進入收獲期。我們判斷短期零售環(huán)境仍具一定不確定性，來自訂貨、經(jīng)銷的收入增速均受一定制約，因此線下直營占比較高的公司具備較高潛力。表：A股主要品牌近年門店數(shù)（家）及線下占比（%）門店數(shù)2019H120192020H120202021H120212022H120222023Q1比音勒芬報喜鳥森馬服飾太平鳥之家錦鴻集團歌力思地素時尚欣賀股份夢潔股份富安娜7981619940444277740139257789416789556449672541459600（585）1104570909158988344300724113935539791633872546167381135555011545242065125422361007161587334760744613015411157506187815332274110016768567521476521429550119949616091525248111251659836849217718147257112054911557151625181191168481404671821914306131123506171814702662---43418121-62510505741108550----------1350多近28002019H1羅萊生活近27002019近26002020H1線下直營占比20202021H120212022H120222023Q1比音勒芬報喜鳥森馬服飾太平鳥之家錦鴻集團歌力思地素時尚欣賀股份夢潔股份富安娜-65%41%15%42%4%81%51%44%76%--71%41%13%43%10%72%58%45%73%39%24%7%79%47%10%48%11%-70%39%9%79%37%8%62%34%9%---49%24%71%-----42%25%72%-----42%12%63%65%45%70%33%24%6%37%15%58%64%35%58%38%25%6%40%15%58%82%43%66%35%24%6%53%19%--82%45%72%39%25%7%-------約28%27%-約27%羅萊生活--資料：各公司2019-2022年報/半年報，2023一季報，證券研究所注：1、歌力思2019年年報期末店鋪數(shù)量為600家，2020年報期初為585家，為20年報剔除了VIVIENNE

TAM和JeanPaulKnott兩個品牌所致；2、高亮標(biāo)注的為疫情期間門店數(shù)持續(xù)增加/線下直營占比在有披露的最新一期高于50%的公司923Q1多家公司盈利能力強勢修復(fù)多家公司23Q1

體現(xiàn)較強盈利彈性，我們認(rèn)為來自：①全渠道折扣的明顯修復(fù)，②經(jīng)營杠桿帶來盈利彈性，具備較強品牌力且線下直營占比高的公司，盈利能力更快修復(fù)。表：A股主要品牌毛利率/凈利率毛利率2019Q120192020Q120202021Q120212022Q120222023Q1比音勒芬報喜鳥森馬服飾太平鳥之家錦鴻集團歌力思地素時尚欣賀股份夢潔股份富安娜64.5%63.1%41.7%57.5%43.6%67.3%64.8%73.8%0.0%67.8%61.7%42.5%53.2%39.5%67.7%65.9%75.0%74.7%41.1%52.0%43.9%65.8%62.3%41.1%51.9%34.5%63.5%66.5%74.8%70.2%40.4%54.0%43.1%73.9%63.4%40.3%52.5%37.4%67.7%66.2%76.6%72.0%39.9%53.9%43.2%76.6%67.1%44.0%55.9%42.9%70.5%69.4%78.4%73.8%40.1%57.1%42.4%76.7%63.9%42.6%52.9%40.6%69.6%67.0%76.6%71.5%37.8%52.1%45.0%75.5%65.7%42.7%54.2%45.3%69.1%62.3%76.7%69.7%38.3%53.1%41.8%77.4%62.7%41.3%48.2%42.9%69.2%63.8%75.4%69.4%33.1%53.1%46.0%75.7%66.1%44.3%60.0%44.6%69.4%65.5%76.7%70.2%42.2%54.3%44.0%38.4%49.8%43.9%羅萊生活凈利率2019Q120192020Q120202021Q120212022Q120222023Q1比音勒芬報喜鳥森馬服飾太平鳥之家錦鴻集團歌力思地素時尚欣賀股份夢潔股份富安娜27.5%11.5%8.4%5.1%19.8%2.9%16.8%33.4%0.0%10.2%15.5%12.8%22.3%6.2%7.9%6.9%14.4%4.6%15.6%26.3%12.3%3.6%18.2%11.5%23.1%9.7%0.6%0.5%7.5%0.7%59.1%29.9%9.6%8.0%14.9%8.1%21.7%10.3%5.2%7.5%9.6%-19.1%22.4%24.6%9.7%2.1%18.0%12.1%24.2%18.3%10.6%7.6%15.0%8.8%18.5%29.8%17.4%6.9%14.8%13.9%23.0%10.8%9.6%6.2%11.9%5.2%14.1%23.8%13.7%-6.4%17.2%12.5%26.2%17.8%6.1%7.7%13.6%3.8%25.2%11.0%4.6%2.1%11.1%1.8%2.3%16.0%7.4%-22.0%17.3%10.8%27.9%20.1%10.4%10.5%14.0%8.8%9.1%9.5%25.2%12.3%-1.6%15.7%12.4%26.9%10.9%2.3%17.9%14.2%羅萊生活資料：各公司2019-2022年報/一季報，2023一季報，證券研究所注：高亮標(biāo)注的為23Q1毛利率/凈利率有顯著修復(fù)的公司10海外—奢侈品、正裝增速居前，Q1環(huán)比改善表：海外重點品牌收入及凈利潤增速收入增速PVH19Q11.8%19Q21.3%19Q32.5%19Q44.7%-3.3%1.1%2.5%-20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q246.3%47.2%28.6%23.8%21Q310.1%-6.3%-1.3%10.4%21Q416.3%1.2%22Q12.1%22Q2-7.8%10.3%-8.4%-6.9%26.0%27.3%28.2%19.6%5.4%22Q3-2.2%23.2%2.4%22Q42.4%23Q11.7%-43.0%

-33.1%

-18.1%

-19.6%

54.7%優(yōu)衣庫GAP9.4%7.3%9.8%-6.1%-39.4%-0.8%-0.1%-5.1%4.2%-0.6%-5.3%-5.3%12.3%-6.3%6.9%-0.3%89.4%61.0%1.5%14.2%-6.2%3.3%26.9%-5.8%2.9%休閑-2.0%0.4%-2.0%-0.2%14.7%15.1%18.7%15.8%4.0%-2.2%0.3%-43.1%

-18.2%-33.9%

-17.0%2.3%-12.9%4.0%A&F3.5%-2.8%32.5%27.4%14.9%22.7%14.4%23.6%22Q3HermesLVMHMonclerKeringBurberry15.5%15.5%14.0%21.9%5.2%18.1%17.0%12.1%14.2%5.7%-6.5%-41.3%38.4%

119.0%

31.5%31.7%

88.6%

29.8%17.8%

174.9%

53.5%13.3%40.1%28.7%35.1%5.1%32.7%29.0%61.4%27.4%14.4%55.3%22Q125.7%13.3%13.0%-2.3%4.6%22.2%16.8%23.2%2.4%11.5%

-15.5%

-37.8%

-10.2%15.4%

-18.1%

-51.4%

-14.9%頂奢13.9%

-15.4%

-43.5%-4.3%-8.2%-4.3%21.4%23.0%91.1%86.4%12.6%18.3%1.1%5.4%19Q4-19.8%

-48.4%

-20.7%11.6%25.4%23Q12.2%奢侈品HugoBoss

2.2%3.4%1.4%-16.4%

-59.3%

-26.0%

-29.3%

-10.5%

128.7%

41.7%20Q1

20Q2

20Q3

20Q4

21Q1

21Q2

21Q355.3%21Q439.6%22Q218.0%22Q4凈利潤增速

19Q119Q219Q3PVH優(yōu)衣庫GAP-54.3%

17.1%

-13.9%

-142.5%

-1437.6%

-126.6%

-66.6%

14.4%

-109.1%

-453.9%

300.7%

-777.3%

33.2%

-36.6%

-1667.5%

-64.5%58.3%

1.0%

-39.6%

-3.5%

-27.1%

-122.0%

-107.2%

-0.7%

20.1%

-563.1%

-6707.1%

33.0%

50.1%

100.1%

91.9%

-9.1%28.3%休閑頂奢38.4%

-43.4%

-47.4%

-166.7%

-510.6%

-136.9%

-32.1%

-227.2%

-117.8%

-516.1%

-260.0%

-106.8%

-197.6%

-119.0%

-285.5%

-1606.3%

88.9%54.9%

-708.8%

-72.7%

-14.2%

-1174.3%

117.6%

547.3%

-0.9%

117.1%

1883.5%

11.7%

-20.5%

-139.4%

-115.5%

-104.7%

-41.5%

200.6%A&FHermesLVMHMonclerKeringBurberry6.6%8.8%11.1%16.5%6.6%-55.6%-84.0%-145.2%-53.0%35.7%7.1%250.3%913.2%259.5%442.6%21.0%61.4%8.7%39.8%23.5%23.0%34.4%35.8%11.9%9.6%----13.6%-75.4%15.0%8.6%27.6%-9.6%-4.2%-13.9%-3.7%

-15.2%-113.8%-67.2%1241.3%193.9%-23.1%33.2%9.4%18.3%-1.2%

45.8%奢侈品資料HugoBoss

-26.0%-9.3%

-148.6%

-457.7%

-92.9%

-129.9%

55.6%-

1225.0%

-505.6%

-425.0%

132.0%：Bloomberg，wind，證券研究所注：時間標(biāo)注為自然季度，如財季不能完全匹配自然季度，則取最接近值。11全球旅行復(fù)蘇，亞太22年高增長美國航空出行旅客數(shù)對比疫情前（2019年）的增速于23年1月首次轉(zhuǎn)正，隨后復(fù)蘇趨勢延續(xù)，整體趨近疫情前水平。全球來看，2022年旅行人次同比大幅增長111%，但仍未回到疫情前水平；分地區(qū)而言，亞太旅行人次22年同比增速最高，達305%，與21年低基數(shù)有關(guān)；對比疫情前（19年），中東受影響最小、亞太受影響最大，歐洲、亞太、美洲、中東、非洲地區(qū)旅行人次分別回到疫情前的80%、28%、71%、90%、67%。圖：美國航空出行旅客增速（%）-對比2019圖：全球旅行人次及同比變化1600115%100%85%70%55%40%25%10%-5%-20%-35%-50%-65%-80%14001200100080060040020005.003.300.360.00(5.00)(0.32)(0.42)(2.18)(2.80)(5.50)(5.70)(5.90)(6.70)(10.00)(15.00)(20.00)(25.00)(8.60)(9.50)(10.10)(10.90)(12.10)(12.30)(15.10)201420152016201720182019202020212022歐洲（百萬人次，左軸）美洲（百萬人次，左軸）非洲（百萬人次，左軸）亞太（百萬人次，左軸）中東（百萬人次，左軸）合計yoy（%，右軸）(21.90)資料：Bloomberg,

TSA官網(wǎng)，新秀麗官網(wǎng)，證券研究所注：TSA

23年6月數(shù)據(jù)截至6月12日。12海外運動全年業(yè)績指引梳理在各家公司最新一次發(fā)布的業(yè)績指引中，Nike、Skechers、lululemon調(diào)高2023收入增速預(yù)期，VF上調(diào)毛利率預(yù)期，渠道商FootLockers則下調(diào)收入增速和毛利率預(yù)期。相較22年取得的業(yè)績，Nike和Dick’s對于23年給出了更樂觀的判斷，分別預(yù)期將取得更高的收入增速和同店銷售額增速。其余品牌和渠道商則趨于保守。13資料：wind，各公司2022至23Q1財報，各公司官網(wǎng)，證券研究所行業(yè)表現(xiàn)—制造端今年以來，坯布及紗線庫存天數(shù)小幅上升，但較22年中的高點已有明顯回落，產(chǎn)成品庫存增速環(huán)比持續(xù)走低，服裝庫存增速3月起已轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)；美國服裝零售庫銷比23Q1較此前有所上升。行業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額同比增速轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)。圖：紡織業(yè)及服裝業(yè)產(chǎn)成品存貨同比增速（%）圖：坯布及紗線庫存天數(shù)（天）紡織業(yè)產(chǎn)成品存貨同比增速紡織服裝及服飾業(yè)產(chǎn)成品存貨同比增速坯布庫存天數(shù)紗線庫存天數(shù)20%15%10%5%50454035302520151050%0-5%圖：紡織業(yè)及服裝業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額累計同比增速（%）圖：美國服裝類零售庫存銷售比紡織業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額紡織業(yè)累計同比增速紡織服裝及服飾業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額累計同比增速45%時間2017201820192020202120222023Q14.79Q24.38Q3Q44.274.304.243.713.283.7625%5%4.394.334.333.643.303.774.654.814.693.853.744.104.274.344.183.203.48-15%-35%-55%14資料：Wind，證券研究所出口靜待外需修復(fù)，臺企多現(xiàn)收入下滑22年8月起紡織品和服裝出口增速明顯回落、9月起增速轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)，23年3、4月同比增速回正后、5月再度轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)，越南紡織品鞋類出口自22年底起同樣走弱，我們認(rèn)為主因外需疲弱及庫存偏高、繼而影響訂單。中國臺灣制造企業(yè)收入增速22Q4起走弱，23年以來多家企業(yè)出現(xiàn)雙位數(shù)以上下滑，我們判斷同樣受外需拖累、及基數(shù)逐漸抬升的影響。表：紡織品和服裝月度出口增速月度增速

21/01

21/02

21/03

21/04

21/05

21/06

21/07

21/08

21/09

21/10

21/11

21/12

22/01

22/02

22/03

22/04

22/05

22/06

22/07

22/08

22/09

22/10

22/11

22/12

23/01

23/02

23/03

23/04

23/05中國出口數(shù)據(jù)紡織品服裝14.6%

284.8%

8.4%

-16.8%

-41.3%

-22.5%

-26.8%

-14.9%

-5.6%

7.2%

10.0%

16.2%

27.0%

-10.2%

22.2%

0.9%

15.7%

7.9%

16.1%

-0.3%

-2.7%

-9.1%

-14.9%

-23.0%

-26.4%

-14.6%

9.1%

3.9%

-14.3%0.0%

320.9%

42.2%

65.0%

37.0%

17.7%

8.2%

8.6%

9.8%

24.7%

22.8%

14.5%

16.7%

-8.2%

10.5%

1.9%

24.6%

19.1%

18.5%

5.0%

-4.4%

-16.9%

-14.9%

-10.3%

-10.6%

-21.8%

31.9%

14.0%

-12.5%越南出口數(shù)據(jù)紡織品鞋類0.0%

2.4%

50.0%

21.1%

41.7%

36.4%

10.0%

-10.0%

-16.1%

-5.8%

40.0%

44.0%

26.9%

9.5%

18.5%

34.8%

21.6%

21.7%

9.1%

40.7%

21.3%

14.3%

0.0%

-20.8%

-24.2%

0.0%

-17.2%

-22.6%

-16.1%12.5%

3.8%

50.9%

23.1%

39.3%

37.9%

25.0%

-39.3%

-41.7%

-40.0%

-7.1%

20.0%

11.1%

-3.7%

20.5%

28.1%

5.1%

25.0%

31.4%

182.4%

157.1%

153.3%

53.8%

5.6%

-20.0%

7.7%

-22.5%

-12.2%

-2.4%臺企營收裕元豐泰儒鴻廣越2.5%

-7.0%

4.7%

9.4%

12.7%

10.3%

-13.0%

-23.2%

-25.1%

-20.5%

5.7%

14.8%

9.1%

16.8%

11.0%

14.5%

16.9%

18.7%

59.4%

106.3%

95.3%

22.9%

-2.8%

-13.5%

-25.0%

-5.9%

-21.3%

-25.4%

-10.8%15.7%

-0.4%

5.0%

32.8%

13.0%

25.5%

13.4%

-40.7%

-48.3%

-20.5%

19.3%

19.0%

9.6%

16.7%

21.2%

22.5%

36.3%

19.6%

44.7%

154.7%

163.0%

83.9%

40.5%

0.7%

-15.2%

-0.4%

-22.2%

-16.3%

-18.1%21.0%

28.6%

63.4%

111.8%

66.9%

68.1%

26.8%

24.7%

-21.6%

-19.0%

25.5%

13.1%

32.3%

19.3%

19.7%

17.2%

1.5%

25.9%

12.6%

53.8%

41.5%

-11.0%

-12.7%

-37.0%

-42.8%

-27.8%

-35.8%

-31.5%

-24.7%-17.5%

-16.4%

-10.2%

31.1%

18.2%

-9.7%

-2.7%

-20.5%

-34.0%

10.4%

196.7%

190.7%

82.7%

116.0%

80.8%

99.5%

10.7%

48.0%

43.4%

77.5%

127.4%

75.9%

2.8%

4.6%

-11.8%

-18.5%

-4.3%

1.1%

8.0%MAKALOT

13.8%

6.7%

12.1%

107.0%

8.5%

2.8%

37.3%

-11.6%

-7.3%

6.6%

28.1%

47.4%

20.0%

41.6%

-2.8%

-1.4%

53.8%

18.7%

21.9%

18.4%

-2.6%

7.5%---16.5%

3.8%

9.3%

-9.2%29.3%

-2.8%

45.5%

114.1%

13.5%

36.8%

1.9%

28.9%

63.3%

138.9%

54.7%

11.9%

6.8%

53.0%

47.2%

98.2%

61.9%

108.8%

79.4%

77.2%

67.7%

32.8%

48.6%

34.3%

3.6%

33.5%

0.8%

8.1%

-15.0%6.7%

51.9%

-33.8%

-46.8%

-51.8%

2.2%

10.3%

-2.6%

1.6%

9.8%

-2.9%

21.0%

23.1%

70.2%

337.0%

276.7%

249.8%

28.7%

-14.4%

-20.8%

-27.7%

-7.9%

-0.3%

25.2%-鈺齊志強-----資料：Wind，裕元集團官網(wǎng)，豐泰企業(yè)官網(wǎng)，儒鴻營收報告網(wǎng)頁，廣越企業(yè)官15網(wǎng)，MAKALOT聚陽實業(yè)官網(wǎng)，鈺齊國際官網(wǎng)，中國臺灣證券交易所公開資訊觀測站，證券研究所短期壓制訂單能見度的主要原因-23Q1庫存仍處相對高位，環(huán)比多數(shù)改善2023Q1各家公司庫存仍處歷史相對高位，不過多數(shù)品牌較22年底已現(xiàn)環(huán)比改善，但同時渠道商庫存仍高?？傮w來看，各公司仍處在庫存清理階段。表：海外運動品牌歷史庫存情況20162017H120172018H120182019H120192020H120202021H120212022H120222023Q1Nike庫存額(億美元）增速50.350.653.352.653.956.262.073.760.968.565.184.293.389.14.6%6.0%4.0%1.1%6.9%15.1%31.0%-1.8%-7.0%6.8%22.8%43.3%15.6%Adidas庫存額(億歐元）增速37.67.236.436.934.334.435.840.952.144.040.540.154.859.756.83.7%-2.0%-6.0%-6.7%4.5%18.6%45.7%7.6%-22.2%-8.8%35.2%49.0%24.9%Puma庫存額(億歐元）8.57.88.99.210.611.112.911.413.914.919.822.521.5增速10.8%8.3%4.7%17.6%19.4%21.3%21.2%2.5%7.7%31.1%42.9%50.4%32.7%Deckers庫存額(億美元）3.77.04.44.04.43.44.73.74.33.14.65.58.47.25.3增速-5.9%6.1%-1.4%-13.7%8.7%7.0%-8.1%-16.6%5.2%80.4%83.4%31.3%5.1%Skechers庫存額(億美元）6.78.78.28.68.610.710.310.210.614.715.618.215.0增速13.4%24.6%22.8%-1.1%4.0%23.9%20.1%-5.0%2.9%44.7%47.9%23.6%-17.4%VF庫存額(億美元）14.23.016.617.119.914.013.815.614.010.812.212.923.425.922.9增速-0.3%19.7%19.9%-17.8%-30.7%11.7%1.5%-31.2%-13.3%19.6%92.4%101.4%61.6%Lululemon庫存額(億美元）增速3.23.33.94.04.95.26.76.57.99.714.614.516.024%14.1%10.4%24.1%22.8%20.6%21.9%36.1%24.8%17.4%49.3%85.1%49.8%Dick’s

Sporting

Goods庫存額(億美元）增速19.217.118.018.221.422.018.819.520.123.030.028.330.3-6.4%6.6%19.0%20.7%-12.2%-11.3%7.2%17.6%49.0%23.2%7.4%FootLocker庫存額(億美元）13.112.912.812.512.69-0.9%12.312.111.99.210.812.716.416.417.6增速-3.7%-2.3%-3.1%-1.6%-4.6%-3.3%-24.0%-9.2%38.0%51.9%29.1%25.5%資料：bloomberg，各家公司2016-2022年年報及半年報，23Q1季報，證券研究所16短期壓制訂單能見度的主要原因-經(jīng)銷增速恢復(fù)慢于DTC渠道方面，23Q1除Adidas和VF外，各家批發(fā)及DTC收入均取得正增長，其中PUMA、Skechers、VF的DTC渠道及l(fā)ululemon的直營單店增速環(huán)比仍有改善，其它各品牌各渠道增速環(huán)比多數(shù)放緩，我們分析庫存清理的促銷活動仍有影響。表：海外運動品牌歷史單季度分渠道收入增速2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

2021Q3

2021Q4

2022Q1

2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4

2023Q1NikeWholesaleDTC5.0%2.3%4.0%8.0%15.0%年度2.0%-48.1.0%-16.9%-7.0%12.0%-2.0%32.0%年度-8.0%20.0%113.1%73.0%9.0%-5.0%9.0%年度-1.0%15.0%-6.6%7.0%1.0%8.0%30.0%25.0%年度18.0%22.0%14.0%11.0%14.0%11.0%28.0%AdidasWholesaleDTC-20.2%24.1%51.0%-26.2%4.1%4.5%-15.6%8.0%12.5%-0.8%4.0%-2.4%6.6%2.0%8.5%13.2%13.0%3.0%6.0%8.0%1.0%2.0%4.0%3.0%-7.0%-23.0%18.0%34.0%31.0%43.0%E-Com

40.0%Puma37.0%14.0%35.0%93.0%53.0%-14.0%WholesaleDTC13.8%21.5%14.5%21.3%15.0%22.0%-17.5%-8.5%12.3%16.7%4.0%6.4%24.3%31.3%114.2%54.7%22.6%13.3%35.0%22.8%23.3%7.1%22.6%5.5%19.9%6.5%28.2%13.1%12.4%22.5%DeckersWholesaleDTC6.4%10.7%10.0%8.7%5.1%8.9%5.6%-2.9%-7.9%-27.1%74.2%1.8%6.2%41.4%63.0%140.3%14.7%20.7%2.8%7.3%37.6%22.2%24.7%15.4%16.7%15.4%8.0%0.0%-11.8%74.2%25.7%13.4%18.7%18.7%SkechersWholesaleDTC24.8%19.4%-9.1%19.7%-54.9%-14.2%-10.9%13.1%-22.9%53.7%6.4%149.9%101.5%12.1%33.1%25.9%22.8%32.7%15.7%18.3%4.3%26.2%11.9%15.7%10.8%3.5%14.4%13.3%35.9%24.5%VF集團WholesaleDTC5.0%8.0%2.0%3.0%3.0%7.0%-11.0%-11.0%-55.0%-37.0%-19.0%-17.0%-10.0%-2.0%14.0%36.0%111.0%97.0%17.0%32.0%14.0%30.0%16.0%1.1%12.6%-6.9%-4.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.2%-4.1%-0.6%14.0%11.0%Lululemon直營門店DTC14.5%24.8%16.7%23.1%17.7%23.2%12.2%25.8%-48.7%67.8%-50.8%154.7%-11.7%93.9%-27.8%94.0%106.4%54.8%142.0%7.8%38.2%22.6%47.1%16.6%36.3%32.3%29.9%29.8%27.7%30.8%15.0%37.0%18.0%16.0%資料：各家公司2019Q1-2023Q1財報，證券研究所17利好龍頭企業(yè)因素-供給側(cè)出清頭部集中，利潤端更顯著：2019-2022，SW紡織制造板塊*上市公司凈利潤排名前五的公司凈利潤合計占比由56.4%提升至97.2%，收入排名前五的公司收入合計占比由46.7%提升至48.0%。2020和2022年，行業(yè)環(huán)境受外部沖擊較大時，紡織業(yè)虧損企業(yè)單位數(shù)同比增長，2023年4月，虧損企業(yè)數(shù)占比達31.2%，19年同期僅為21.2%。2019年以來，規(guī)模以上紡織業(yè)工業(yè)增加值同比增速多數(shù)時間高于行業(yè)整體，在2021年行業(yè)增速仍未轉(zhuǎn)正時，規(guī)模以上紡織業(yè)工業(yè)增加值便強勁復(fù)蘇。圖：紡織業(yè)工業(yè)增加值同比變化圖：紡織業(yè)企業(yè)及虧損企業(yè)單位數(shù)情況250002000015000100005000060%50%40%30%20%10%0%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%-10%-20%-30%-40%0%-5%-10%紡織業(yè)企業(yè)單位數(shù)（個，左軸）紡織業(yè)虧損企業(yè)單位數(shù)（個，左軸）虧損企業(yè)單位數(shù)yoy（%，右軸）紡織業(yè)工業(yè)增加值yoy規(guī)模以上紡織業(yè)工業(yè)增加值yoy企業(yè)單位數(shù)yoy（%，右軸）資料：wind，證券研究所*

剔除主業(yè)已發(fā)生變化的中銀絨業(yè)、浙文影業(yè)18利好龍頭企業(yè)因素-逆勢擴產(chǎn)，提前布局過去3年，雖受外因擾動，訂單、生產(chǎn)、物流等均受影響，優(yōu)質(zhì)制造企業(yè)仍逆勢擴產(chǎn)，我們認(rèn)為，在市場低迷時期提前做好產(chǎn)能布局，體現(xiàn)了決策魄力、經(jīng)營決心、行業(yè)地位及資金實力。表：紡織制造重點企業(yè)產(chǎn)能、產(chǎn)量情況2019202020212022鈕扣

101億粒拉鏈

5.3億米鈕扣

101億粒拉鏈

6.5

億米紐扣116億粒拉鏈8.5億米紐扣116億粒拉鏈8.5億米產(chǎn)能偉星股份華孚時尚產(chǎn)能利用率產(chǎn)能80%66%66%63%189萬錠189萬錠206萬錠206萬錠產(chǎn)能利用率91%71%93%80%百隆東方

產(chǎn)能（越南百?。?0萬錠100萬錠110萬錠118萬錠產(chǎn)能19480萬雙18040萬雙91%21857萬雙96%23843萬雙91%華利集團產(chǎn)能利用率產(chǎn)量95%-申洲國際4.4億4.9億5.0億主要產(chǎn)品2019202020212022毛精紡紗線羊毛毛條9560542696454492140425120144846470改性處

理、染整及羊絨加工新澳股份產(chǎn)量（噸）2186357029352713羊絨紗線其他--3521092234-5078691314518557121918353285194171112161871781654116738成衣（萬件）針織面料（噸）梭織面料（萬米）紗線（噸）3452-60227114盛泰集團產(chǎn)量19資料：各公司2019-2022年報，招股說明書，證券研究所利好龍頭企業(yè)因素-盈利穩(wěn)健，靜待復(fù)蘇多數(shù)優(yōu)質(zhì)制造企業(yè)在外因不利的時期