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ReportontheDevelopment
StatusofIntelligentConnectedVehiclesinChina
XiaofengYi
ProductPlanningDirector
LenovoVehicleComputing
20240315
2023LenovoInternal.Allrightsreserved.
YiXiaofeng
EarlyMemberofTIAA(TELEMATICSINDUSTRYAPPLICATIONALLIANCE)
Career
?FormerChiefEngineerofIntelligentCockpitinGeelyAutomotiveGroup
?FormerLeaderofPromptEngineeringandScenarioInnovationstudygroupofGeelyAutomotiveGroup
?FormerGeneralManagerofIOVbusinessatAutohome(listedcompanyinNYSE)
?FormerArchitectureDirectorofIOVofGreatWallMotorGroup
?FormerChinaMarketVPofIsraelCompany“BrightBox”
YiXiaofeng
TIAAMember
ProductPlanningDirector,LenovoVehicleComputing
EmailAddress:
yixf1@
870515467@
Mobil:
+8618620648349
WechatID:
zhixingli0330
SocietyActivities
?SecretaryGeneralofChinaCounterpartGroupoftheFGVM(FocusGroupofVehicularMultimedia)underITU-T
?FirstbatchofresearchersofChinaInternetofVehiclesthinktank
?OneofmaindraftersofmultipleChinesenationalstandardsintheautomotiveindustry
EducationBackground
?MasterofScienceinFinance,KellySchoolofBusiness,America(JointProgramwithTsinghuaUniversity)
?MasterofSoftwareEngineering,BeihangUniversity,China
?BachelorofJapaneseLiterature(SeniorTranslationandInterpretation)
From2024to2030,
NewPeriodinChinaMarket
ChangesandpredictionsofnewcardeliverydatainChinapassengercar
marketfromYear2020toYear2030
Deliveryvolumeoffuelvehicles
Deliveryvolumeofnewenergyvehicles
2024
1.Factorscontributingtosustainedgrowth:
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
peakin2016/17,enteringareplacementcycleBig
Market
NewStart
25000000
2.Boldprediction:2024,anewturningpointinthenewenergymarket
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
3.By2030,theproportionofnewenergywillexceed80%
2020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E
DataSource：GGAIChina
SUVandMPVcansellbetter:FamilyOrientedMarket
Automobilereplacementmarket:withBiggerSizeandHigherPrice
Sedan
Fromtheperspectiveofvariousvehiclecategoriesinthepast5years,therehasbeenasignificantdeclineinthesedanmarketsharefromJanuarytoOctober2023,withasignificantincreaseintheSUVandMPVmarketshare.YiouThinkTankbelievesthatfromtheoverallmarket
perspective,thetrendthatpassengercarmodelsbecominglarger,morefamilyoriented,more
replacement-market-oriented,andmoreexpensivebecomesmoreobvious.
Inthefuture,competitionwillfocusontheexistingmarket.
ThelinkageEffect
betweenNewEnergyCarandIntelligentCarisbecomingincreasinglyapparent
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Changesinpenetrationratedataofintelligentelectricvehiclesinthe
Chinesemarket(includingPHEVCars)fromYear2020toYear2030
Deliveryvolumeofnewenergyvehicles
DeliveryvolumeofIntelligentvehicles
IntelligenceEra1.0：L2+CockpitInfotainment+Telematics+OTA
IntelligenceEra1.5：NOA+AICockpit+DiversifiedHMI
IntelligentEV，fromEra1.0toEra1.5
1.Functionalupgrades(hardware,software,user-experience)
2.Thenewcarmarket’scompetitionleadsto“functiongenerationgap”
3.Eraof1.5,declarestheendoferaofintelligentfuelvehicles
IntelligenceEra1.0
IntelligenceEra1.5
2020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
DataSource：GGAIChina
Competitiontrend
indifferentpricerangeShowsdifferently
DataSource：GGAIChina
Theproportionofsalesvolumeofcarmodelsindifferentpriceranges
OfNewEnergyCarMarketand
NewEnergyCarMarket
TheWholePassengerCarMarket
150000-25000RMB
2023年1-10月
2022年
VW
19.40%
VW
20.22%
BYD
16.85%
BYD
13.81%
Toyota
12.07%
Toyota
13.23%
Honda
10.96%
Honda
12.84%
BUICK
4.27%
NISSAN
5.80%
Risingslowly
<150000RMB
2023年1-10月
2022年
BYD
12.54%
ChangAn
11.22%
ChangAn
12.33%
WuLing
9.20%
WuLing
8.43%
Toyota
7.95%
Geely
8.40%
Geely
7.45%
VW
6.88%
VW
7.09%
Fallingrapidly
250000-350000RMB
2023年1-10月
2022年
TESLA
14.69%
TESLA
16.07%
VW
10.96%
VW
10.71%
BMW
8.73%
Toyota
9.00%
Toyota
7.88%
BMW
8.78%
Benz
7.65%
Benz
8.12%
StayingStable
350000-400000RMB
2023年1-10月
2022年
22.57%
20.35%
17.22%
6.55%
5.77%
BMW
Benz
Audi
LiAuto
TESLA
18.29%
17.20%
15.29%
9.66%
7.19%
RisingRapidly
BMW
Benz
Audi
NIO
VOLVO
NOA&Domain-Controller
AccumulatedmileageofTESLA’sFSD
Users’UsageRatioofTESLA’sFSD(Tenthousandmiles;%)
ChangesinAutonomousDrivingDomainControllersandNOADatainChina's
PassengerCarMarketfrom2020to2030
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
DeliveryvolumeofADASdomaincontrollers
Penetrationrate
ofNOA(NavigateonAutopilot)
Penetrationrate
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
ofADASDomainControllers
Boldprediction:
1.TheintegrationofL2andparkingisonlyatemporarydemand(fornewcarmarketing,theyareinsufficienthighlightstowardsmarket
2LidarconstrainedbyurbanNOA
competition),andNOAisstillmainstream(ThereisahurdlebetweenL2andNOA);
.,.
3.Can4Dimagingradarescapefromawkwardsituations?
5000000
0
2020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E
DataSource：GGAIChina
Intelligentcockpit&Domain-Controller
DataSource：GGAIChina
ChangesofPenetrationratedataofCabinDomainControllerand5G
TechnologyforChinaPassengerCarMarketfrom2020to2030
DeliveryvolumeofCockpitdomaincontrollers
PenetrationrateOf5G
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Penetrationrate
ofCockpitdomaincontrollers
Prediction:
1.Thebattlebetweencockpitdomaincontrollersandcomputingplatformsisnotyetsettled;
2.Cockpit+Parking?ADAS+Parking?Cockpit+ADAS?
3.5Gwirelessterminal,willbe
integrated?
2020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E
PenetrationrateofdifferentIntelligentCockpitfunctions（accordingtothePreinstallationdatafromJanuarytoSeptember2023）
Cockpit
Domain
Controller
Voice
Cont-Caraudio(morethan10)rol
IMS（DMS/OMS）W/ARHUDOTA
90.00%
CarEntertainmentHeadUnit(Not
DomainController)
AppStore
NetworkSecurity
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
Vehicleacoustics
AIGC
Softwareupgrade
IntegrationandfusionofIntelligentdrivingcomponents
Human-machine-co-drivingHMI
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Hardwarepopularization
Softwareupgrade
BrandlabeledOS
50.00%
DataSource：GGAIChina
EEAArchitecture(Interaction,Fusion)
Crossdomaincapability,
TrendofpenetrationrateofMulti-domain-intelligent-market
EvolutionRoadmapof“CentralComputing+Regionalcontrol”
5.0：HPC+RegionalControl
4.0：ADASdriving®ionalcontrol
3.0：MidlevelintegrationofcockpitandADAS+gateway/BCMregionalcontrol
2.0：Cockpit+gateway/BCM+AD
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